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title: Probabilistic Thinking
created: 2024-11-18T09:18:12
modified: 2025-09-27T17:38:29
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↔ Deterministic Thinking (絕對型思維)

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is having a willingness to always ask questions like “_What else might happen?_”, “_What could happen next?_”, “_What if we’re wrong?_” and to look at the full range of possibilities that might come to pass rather than to assume that things will go as planned.

* Disconfirming Evidence — evidence that proves your existing ideas wrong — is exponentially more valuable than Confirming Evidence

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# Think In Probabilities, Not Certainties

* Instead of saying “X will happen,” say, “There’s a 70% chance X will happen.”
* Don’t get attached to one “hand”—fold when odds don’t justify playing.

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# See Also

* [Duality versus Polarity](Duality%20versus%20Polarity.md)