---
title: The Impact Bias
created: 2025-11-19T05:42:36
modified: 2025-11-19T21:00:06
---

We overestimate:

1. **How intensely** we will feel after future events (good or bad), and
2. **How long** those feelings will last.

---

We think future events will affect us more than they actually do.

---

* With **Impact Bias**, we mispredict our _future emotions_.
* With the **[End of History Illusion](https://huami.ng/the-psychology-of-future-self)**, we mispredict our _future selves_.

> Both show humans are poor forecasters.