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title: The Sunk Cost Fallacy
created: 2024-11-18T09:18:12
modified: 2025-09-29T07:23:22
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> _“If you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station. The longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be.” — Japanese proverb_

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「沉沒成本不是成本」

* 有選擇就有成本，沒有選擇就沒有成本。當我們無法再做選擇的時候，就不存在成本。
* 成本是放棄了的最大代價，是「所有放棄了的選項當中價值最大的那個」。沉沒成本，指那些已經發生但無法收回的支出。當我們無法再收回、無法再放棄時，就不存在成本。
* 沉没成本不可追，再浪費時間就是錯上加錯。

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We stick with failing paths because we’ve already invested time, money, or effort. But past investments are **irrecoverable**—they shouldn’t dictate future decisions.