---
name: decision-journal
description: Create structured records of decisions with expected outcomes, probabilities, and quit conditions. Use for important decisions.
---

# Decision Journal

Create structured records of decisions for learning and accountability.

## When to Use

When making important decisions that you want to track and learn from.

## The Framework

Record these components for each decision:

### 1. Expected Outcomes
List 3-5 possible outcomes:
- Best case scenario
- Most likely scenario
- Worst case scenario
- Consider short and long-term

### 2. Probability Estimates
For each outcome, estimate likelihood (must sum to 100%):
- Outcome A: X%
- Outcome B: Y%
- etc.

### 3. Key Assumptions
List 3-5 critical assumptions:
- What beliefs underlie this decision?
- Which, if wrong, would change the outcome?

### 4. Base Rates
Research relevant statistics:
- What's typical for this type of decision?
- Historical data or industry averages?
- What do similar situations suggest?

### 5. Quit Conditions
Define 2-3 triggers to abandon or change course:
- Clear, measurable indicators
- Specific thresholds
- Timeline checkpoints

### 6. Actual Results
Leave blank initially, fill in later:
- What actually happened?
- Which outcome occurred?
- Were assumptions valid?

## Review Process

After outcomes are known:
1. Compare predictions to reality
2. Identify where thinking was wrong
3. Extract lessons for future decisions

## When Not to Use

Do not use this skill when the request is unrelated, low-stakes, or better handled by a simpler direct response.