---
name: hypothesis-design
description: Formulate clear, testable hypotheses for product experiments. Use when designing experiments to validate solutions.
---

# Product Hypothesis Design

Formulate clear, testable hypotheses for product experiments.

## When to Use

When you have a product problem and need to design an experiment to validate a solution.

## The Process

### 1. Identify the Experiment Goal
- What user problem are you addressing?
- What change do you think will help?

### 2. Draft Hypothesis Statement

Use this structure:
```
[Action] will cause [Outcome] to [Direction] for [Users] under [Conditions]
```

All 5 components required:
- **Action:** What you're doing
- **Outcome:** What metric changes
- **Direction:** Increase/decrease/improve
- **Users:** Who's affected
- **Conditions:** When/where this applies

### 3. Check for Specificity
- Is the action clearly defined?
- Is the outcome measurable?
- Are users and conditions specific?

### 4. Develop Measurement Plan
- What metrics prove success?
- How will you collect data?
- What's the sample size?

### 5. Narrative Check

Convert to story format:
```
Currently, [user] is experiencing [problem].
We believe that by [change], we'll see [outcome].
We'll know we're right when [metric] changes by [amount].
```

## Quality Check

- Is the hypothesis falsifiable?
- Can you measure the outcome?
- Is the timeframe realistic?
- Are success criteria clear?

## When Not to Use

Do not use this skill when the request is unrelated, low-stakes, or better handled by a simpler direct response.