{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Model comparison with the AIC\n", "\n", "[mRNA count dataset download](https://s3.amazonaws.com/bebi103.caltech.edu/data/singer_transcript_counts.csv)\n", "\n", "[Spindle length dataset download](https://s3.amazonaws.com/bebi103.caltech.edu/data/good_invitro_droplet_data.csv)\n", "\n", "
" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 1, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "\n", "
\n", " \n", " Loading BokehJS ...\n", "
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\\n\"+\n \"

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\\n\"+\n \"\\n\"+\n \"\\n\"+\n \"from bokeh.resources import INLINE\\n\"+\n \"output_notebook(resources=INLINE)\\n\"+\n \"\\n\"+\n \"
\"}};\n\n function display_loaded() {\n const el = document.getElementById(\"f70a8c9f-de70-448c-a2e1-d517fd77fd74\");\n if (el != null) {\n el.textContent = \"BokehJS is loading...\";\n }\n if (root.Bokeh !== undefined) {\n if (el != null) {\n el.textContent = \"BokehJS \" + root.Bokeh.version + \" successfully loaded.\";\n }\n } else if (Date.now() < root._bokeh_timeout) {\n setTimeout(display_loaded, 100)\n }\n }\n\n function run_callbacks() {\n try {\n root._bokeh_onload_callbacks.forEach(function(callback) {\n if (callback != null)\n callback();\n });\n } finally {\n delete root._bokeh_onload_callbacks\n }\n console.debug(\"Bokeh: all callbacks have finished\");\n }\n\n function load_libs(css_urls, js_urls, callback) {\n if (css_urls == null) css_urls = [];\n if (js_urls == null) js_urls = [];\n\n root._bokeh_onload_callbacks.push(callback);\n if (root._bokeh_is_loading > 0) {\n console.debug(\"Bokeh: BokehJS is being loaded, scheduling callback at\", now());\n return null;\n }\n if (js_urls == null || js_urls.length === 0) {\n run_callbacks();\n return null;\n }\n console.debug(\"Bokeh: BokehJS not loaded, scheduling load and callback at\", now());\n root._bokeh_is_loading = css_urls.length + js_urls.length;\n\n function on_load() {\n root._bokeh_is_loading--;\n if (root._bokeh_is_loading === 0) {\n console.debug(\"Bokeh: all BokehJS libraries/stylesheets loaded\");\n run_callbacks()\n }\n }\n\n function on_error(url) {\n console.error(\"failed to load \" + url);\n }\n\n for (let i = 0; i < css_urls.length; i++) {\n const url = css_urls[i];\n const element = document.createElement(\"link\");\n element.onload = on_load;\n element.onerror = on_error.bind(null, url);\n element.rel = \"stylesheet\";\n element.type = \"text/css\";\n element.href = url;\n console.debug(\"Bokeh: injecting link tag for BokehJS stylesheet: \", url);\n document.body.appendChild(element);\n }\n\n for (let i = 0; i < js_urls.length; i++) {\n const url = js_urls[i];\n const element = document.createElement('script');\n element.onload = on_load;\n element.onerror = on_error.bind(null, url);\n element.async = false;\n element.src = url;\n console.debug(\"Bokeh: injecting script tag for BokehJS library: \", url);\n document.head.appendChild(element);\n }\n };\n\n function inject_raw_css(css) {\n const element = document.createElement(\"style\");\n element.appendChild(document.createTextNode(css));\n document.body.appendChild(element);\n }\n\n const js_urls = [\"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-3.2.1.min.js\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-gl-3.2.1.min.js\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-widgets-3.2.1.min.js\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-tables-3.2.1.min.js\", \"https://cdn.bokeh.org/bokeh/release/bokeh-mathjax-3.2.1.min.js\", \"https://unpkg.com/@holoviz/panel@1.2.1/dist/panel.min.js\"];\n const css_urls = [];\n\n const inline_js = [ function(Bokeh) {\n Bokeh.set_log_level(\"info\");\n },\nfunction(Bokeh) {\n }\n ];\n\n function run_inline_js() {\n if (root.Bokeh !== undefined || force === true) {\n for (let i = 0; i < inline_js.length; i++) {\n inline_js[i].call(root, root.Bokeh);\n }\nif (force === true) {\n display_loaded();\n }} else if (Date.now() < root._bokeh_timeout) {\n setTimeout(run_inline_js, 100);\n } else if (!root._bokeh_failed_load) {\n console.log(\"Bokeh: BokehJS failed to load within specified timeout.\");\n root._bokeh_failed_load = true;\n } else if (force !== true) {\n const cell = $(document.getElementById(\"f70a8c9f-de70-448c-a2e1-d517fd77fd74\")).parents('.cell').data().cell;\n cell.output_area.append_execute_result(NB_LOAD_WARNING)\n }\n }\n\n if (root._bokeh_is_loading === 0) {\n console.debug(\"Bokeh: BokehJS loaded, going straight to plotting\");\n run_inline_js();\n } else {\n load_libs(css_urls, js_urls, function() {\n console.debug(\"Bokeh: BokehJS plotting callback run at\", now());\n run_inline_js();\n });\n }\n}(window));" }, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data" } ], "source": [ "import warnings\n", "\n", "import pandas as pd\n", "import numpy as np\n", "import numba\n", "import scipy.optimize\n", "import scipy.stats as st\n", "\n", "import bebi103\n", "\n", "import iqplot\n", "\n", "import bokeh.io\n", "bokeh.io.output_notebook()" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "
\n", "\n", "We have [previously introduced the Akaike information criterion](../21/information_criteria.ipynb). Here, we will demonstrate its use in model comparison and the mechanics of how to calculated it.\n", "\n", "As a reminder, for a set of parameters $\\theta$ with MLE $\\theta^*$ and a model with log-likelihood $\\ell(\\theta;\\text{data})$, the AIC is given by\n", "\n", "\\begin{align}\n", "\\text{AIC} = -2\\ell(\\theta^*;\\text{data}) + 2p,\n", "\\end{align}\n", "\n", "where $p$ is the number of free parameters in a model. The Akaike weight of model $i$ in a collection of models is\n", "\n", "\\begin{align}\n", "w_i = \\frac{\\mathrm{e}^{-(\\text{AIC}_i - \\text{AIC}_\\mathrm{max})/2}}{\\sum_j\\mathrm{e}^{-(\\text{AIC}_j - \\text{AIC}_\\mathrm{max})/2}}.\n", "\\end{align}\n", "\n", "To begin, we will use the AIC to compare a single Negative Binomial model to a mixture of two Negative Binomials for smFISH data from Singer, et al." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## AIC for mRNA counts\n", "\n", "Let us now compare the single Negative Binomial to the mixture model for mRNA counts. We again need our functions for computing the MLE and computing the log-likelihood from previous lessons." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 2, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "def log_like_iid_nbinom(params, n):\n", " \"\"\"Log likelihood for i.i.d. NBinom measurements, parametrized\n", " by alpha, b=1/beta.\"\"\"\n", " alpha, b = params\n", "\n", " if alpha <= 0 or b <= 0:\n", " return -np.inf\n", "\n", " return np.sum(st.nbinom.logpmf(n, alpha, 1/(1+b)))\n", "\n", "\n", "def mle_iid_nbinom(n):\n", " \"\"\"Perform maximum likelihood estimates for parameters for i.i.d.\n", " NBinom measurements, parametrized by alpha, b=1/beta\"\"\"\n", " with warnings.catch_warnings():\n", " warnings.simplefilter(\"ignore\")\n", "\n", " res = scipy.optimize.minimize(\n", " fun=lambda params, n: -log_like_iid_nbinom(params, n),\n", " x0=np.array([3, 3]),\n", " args=(n,),\n", " method='Powell'\n", " )\n", "\n", " if res.success:\n", " return res.x\n", " else:\n", " raise RuntimeError('Convergence failed with message', res.message)\n", " \n", "\n", "def initial_guess_mix(n, w_guess):\n", " \"\"\"Generate initial guess for mixture model.\"\"\"\n", " n_low = n[n < np.percentile(n, 100*w_guess)]\n", " n_high = n[n >= np.percentile(n, 100*w_guess)]\n", " \n", " alpha1, b1 = mle_iid_nbinom(n_low)\n", " alpha2, b2 = mle_iid_nbinom(n_high)\n", " \n", " return alpha1, b1, alpha2, b2\n", "\n", "\n", "def log_like_mix(alpha1, b1, alpha2, b2, w, n):\n", " \"\"\"Log-likeihood of binary Negative Binomial mixture model.\"\"\"\n", " # Fix nonidentifieability be enforcing values of w\n", " if w < 0 or w > 1:\n", " return -np.inf\n", " \n", " # Physical bounds on parameters\n", " if alpha1 < 0 or alpha2 < 0 or b1 < 0 or b2 < 0:\n", " return -np.inf\n", "\n", " logx1 = st.nbinom.logpmf(n, alpha1, 1/(1+b1))\n", " logx2 = st.nbinom.logpmf(n, alpha2, 1/(1+b2))\n", "\n", " # Multipliers for log-sum-exp\n", " lse_coeffs = np.tile([w, 1-w], [len(n), 1]).transpose()\n", "\n", " # log-likelihood for each measurement\n", " log_likes = scipy.special.logsumexp(np.vstack([logx1, logx2]), axis=0, b=lse_coeffs)\n", " \n", " return np.sum(log_likes)\n", "\n", "\n", "def mle_mix(n, w_guess):\n", " \"\"\"Obtain MLE estimate for parameters for binary mixture \n", " of Negative Binomials.\"\"\"\n", " with warnings.catch_warnings():\n", " warnings.simplefilter(\"ignore\")\n", "\n", " res = scipy.optimize.minimize(\n", " fun=lambda params, n: -log_like_mix(*params, n),\n", " x0=[*initial_guess_mix(n, w_guess), w_guess],\n", " args=(n,),\n", " method='Powell',\n", " tol=1e-6,\n", " )\n", "\n", " if res.success:\n", " return res.x\n", " else:\n", " raise RuntimeError('Convergence failed with message', res.message) " ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Now we can load in the data and compute the MLEs for each of the four genes." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
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" ], "text/plain": [ " Rex1 Rest Nanog Prdm14\n", "alpha 1.634562 4.530335 1.263097 0.552886\n", "b 84.680915 16.543054 69.347842 8.200636\n", "alpha1 3.497010 2.786599 0.834853 2.385858\n", "b1 4.104915 12.395709 66.534676 4.747278\n", "alpha2 5.089624 6.683424 4.127551 0.558672\n", "b2 31.810372 11.953266 28.132831 4.872748\n", "w 0.160422 0.108772 0.466650 0.210606" ] }, "execution_count": 3, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "# Load in data\n", "df = pd.read_csv(\"../data/singer_transcript_counts.csv\", comment=\"#\")\n", "\n", "df_mle = pd.DataFrame(index=['alpha', 'b', 'alpha1', 'b1', 'alpha2', 'b2', 'w'])\n", "\n", "for gene in df:\n", " n = df['Nanog'].values\n", "\n", " # Single Negative Binomial MLE\n", " alpha, b = mle_iid_nbinom(df[gene].values)\n", "\n", " # Mixture model MLE\n", " alpha1, b1, alpha2, b2, w = mle_mix(df[gene].values, 0.2)\n", " \n", " # Store results in data frame\n", " df_mle[gene] = [alpha, b, alpha1, b1, alpha2, b2, w]\n", " \n", "# Take a look\n", "df_mle" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "For each of the two models, we can compute the log likelihood evaluated at the MLEs for the parameters." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
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Rex1RestNanogPrdm14
alpha1.6345624.5303351.2630970.552886
b84.68091516.54305469.3478428.200636
alpha13.4970102.7865990.8348532.385858
b14.10491512.39570966.5346764.747278
alpha25.0896246.6834244.1275510.558672
b231.81037211.95326628.1328314.872748
w0.1604220.1087720.4666500.210606
log_like_single-1638.678482-1376.748398-1524.928918-713.091587
log_like_mix-1590.353744-1372.108896-1512.444549-712.702876
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" ], "text/plain": [ " Rex1 Rest Nanog Prdm14\n", "alpha 1.634562 4.530335 1.263097 0.552886\n", "b 84.680915 16.543054 69.347842 8.200636\n", "alpha1 3.497010 2.786599 0.834853 2.385858\n", "b1 4.104915 12.395709 66.534676 4.747278\n", "alpha2 5.089624 6.683424 4.127551 0.558672\n", "b2 31.810372 11.953266 28.132831 4.872748\n", "w 0.160422 0.108772 0.466650 0.210606\n", "log_like_single -1638.678482 -1376.748398 -1524.928918 -713.091587\n", "log_like_mix -1590.353744 -1372.108896 -1512.444549 -712.702876" ] }, "execution_count": 4, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "for gene in df:\n", " ell = log_like_iid_nbinom(\n", " (df_mle.loc[\"alpha\", gene], df_mle.loc[\"b\", gene]), df[gene].values\n", " )\n", " df_mle.loc[\"log_like_single\", gene] = ell\n", "\n", " ell_mix = log_like_mix(\n", " *df_mle.loc[[\"alpha1\", 'b1', 'alpha2', 'b2', 'w'], gene].values,\n", " df[gene].values,\n", " )\n", " df_mle.loc[\"log_like_mix\", gene] = ell_mix\n", " \n", "# Take a look\n", "df_mle" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "We can already see a very large difference between the log likelihood evaluated at the MLE for Rex1, but not much difference for Prdm14. The mixture morel has $p = 5$ parameters, while the single Negative Binomial model has $p = 2$. With these numbers, we can compute the AIC and then also the Akaike weights." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
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Rex1RestNanogPrdm14
alpha1.6345624.5303351.2630970.552886
b84.68091516.54305469.3478428.200636
alpha13.4970102.7865990.8348532.385858
b14.10491512.39570966.5346764.747278
alpha25.0896246.6834244.1275510.558672
b231.81037211.95326628.1328314.872748
w0.1604220.1087720.4666500.210606
log_like_single-1638.678482-1376.748398-1524.928918-713.091587
log_like_mix-1590.353744-1372.108896-1512.444549-712.702876
AIC_single3281.3569632757.4967973053.8578371430.183173
AIC_mix3190.7074872754.2177923034.8890981435.405751
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" ], "text/plain": [ " Rex1 Rest Nanog Prdm14\n", "alpha 1.634562 4.530335 1.263097 0.552886\n", "b 84.680915 16.543054 69.347842 8.200636\n", "alpha1 3.497010 2.786599 0.834853 2.385858\n", "b1 4.104915 12.395709 66.534676 4.747278\n", "alpha2 5.089624 6.683424 4.127551 0.558672\n", "b2 31.810372 11.953266 28.132831 4.872748\n", "w 0.160422 0.108772 0.466650 0.210606\n", "log_like_single -1638.678482 -1376.748398 -1524.928918 -713.091587\n", "log_like_mix -1590.353744 -1372.108896 -1512.444549 -712.702876\n", "AIC_single 3281.356963 2757.496797 3053.857837 1430.183173\n", "AIC_mix 3190.707487 2754.217792 3034.889098 1435.405751" ] }, "execution_count": 5, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "for gene in df:\n", " df_mle.loc['AIC_single', gene] = -2 * (df_mle.loc['log_like_single', gene] - 2)\n", " df_mle.loc['AIC_mix', gene] = -2 * (df_mle.loc['log_like_mix', gene] - 5)\n", " \n", "# Take a look\n", "df_mle" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Finally, we can compute the Akaike weight for the mixture model (the weight for the single Negative Binomial model is $1-w_\\mathrm{mix}$)." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
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Rex1RestNanogPrdm14
alpha1.634562e+004.5303351.2630970.552886
b8.468092e+0116.54305469.3478428.200636
alpha13.497010e+002.7865990.8348532.385858
b14.104915e+0012.39570966.5346764.747278
alpha25.089624e+006.6834244.1275510.558672
b23.181037e+0111.95326628.1328314.872748
w1.604216e-010.1087720.4666500.210606
log_like_single-1.638678e+03-1376.748398-1524.928918-713.091587
log_like_mix-1.590354e+03-1372.108896-1512.444549-712.702876
AIC_single3.281357e+032757.4967973053.8578371430.183173
AIC_mix3.190707e+032754.2177923034.8890981435.405751
w_single2.068790e-200.1625330.0000760.931585
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" ], "text/plain": [ " Rex1 Rest Nanog Prdm14\n", "alpha 1.634562e+00 4.530335 1.263097 0.552886\n", "b 8.468092e+01 16.543054 69.347842 8.200636\n", "alpha1 3.497010e+00 2.786599 0.834853 2.385858\n", "b1 4.104915e+00 12.395709 66.534676 4.747278\n", "alpha2 5.089624e+00 6.683424 4.127551 0.558672\n", "b2 3.181037e+01 11.953266 28.132831 4.872748\n", "w 1.604216e-01 0.108772 0.466650 0.210606\n", "log_like_single -1.638678e+03 -1376.748398 -1524.928918 -713.091587\n", "log_like_mix -1.590354e+03 -1372.108896 -1512.444549 -712.702876\n", "AIC_single 3.281357e+03 2757.496797 3053.857837 1430.183173\n", "AIC_mix 3.190707e+03 2754.217792 3034.889098 1435.405751\n", "w_single 2.068790e-20 0.162533 0.000076 0.931585" ] }, "execution_count": 6, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "for gene in df:\n", " AIC_max = max(df_mle.loc[['AIC_single', 'AIC_mix'], gene])\n", " numerator = np.exp(-(df_mle.loc['AIC_single', gene] - AIC_max)/2)\n", " denominator = numerator + np.exp(-(df_mle.loc['AIC_mix', gene] - AIC_max)/2)\n", " df_mle.loc['w_single', gene] = numerator / denominator\n", " \n", "# Take a look\n", "df_mle" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "In looking at the Akaike weight for the mixture (1 – `w_single`), is it clear that the mixture model is strongly preferred for Rex1 and Nanog. There is not strong preference for Rest, and a preference for the single Negative Binomial model for Prdm14. Reminding ourselves of the ECDFs, this makes sense." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 7, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "\n", "
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" const render_items = [{\"docid\":\"44c70b54-079d-48ce-82f3-13f4395be777\",\"roots\":{\"p1173\":\"f61a7ae8-8511-432e-91d5-aebeb142dadf\"},\"root_ids\":[\"p1173\"]}];\n", " root.Bokeh.embed.embed_items_notebook(docs_json, render_items);\n", " }\n", " if (root.Bokeh !== undefined) {\n", " embed_document(root);\n", " } else {\n", " let attempts = 0;\n", " const timer = setInterval(function(root) {\n", " if (root.Bokeh !== undefined) {\n", " clearInterval(timer);\n", " embed_document(root);\n", " } else {\n", " attempts++;\n", " if (attempts > 100) {\n", " clearInterval(timer);\n", " console.log(\"Bokeh: ERROR: Unable to run BokehJS code because BokehJS library is missing\");\n", " }\n", " }\n", " }, 10, root)\n", " }\n", "})(window);" ], "application/vnd.bokehjs_exec.v0+json": "" }, "metadata": { "application/vnd.bokehjs_exec.v0+json": { "id": "p1173" } }, "output_type": "display_data" } ], "source": [ "genes = [\"Nanog\", \"Prdm14\", \"Rest\", \"Rex1\"]\n", "\n", "plots = [\n", " iqplot.ecdf(\n", " data=df[gene].values,\n", " q=gene,\n", " x_axis_label=\"mRNA count\",\n", " title=gene,\n", " frame_height=150,\n", " frame_width=200,\n", " )\n", " for gene in genes\n", "]\n", "\n", "bokeh.io.show(bokeh.layouts.gridplot(plots, ncols=2))" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Rex1 clearly is bimodal, and Nanog appears to have a second inflection point where the ECDF reaches a value of about 0.4, which is what we see in the MLE estimates in the mixture model. Rest and Prdm14 both appear to be unimodal, agreeing with what we saw with the AIC analysis.\n", "\n", "Note that this underscores something we've been stressing all term. You should do good exploratory data analysis first, and the EDA often tells much of the story!" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "### Caveat\n", "\n", "Remember, though, that we did *not* take into account that the measurements of the four genes were done in the same cells. We modeled that when we presented the mixture models at the beginning of this lesson. The analysis of a more complicated model with MLE proved to be out of reach due to computational difficulty. So, we should not make strong conclusions about what the relative quality of the mixture of single Negative Binomial models mean in this context. We will address these kinds of modeling issues next term." ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## AIC for the spindle model\n", "\n", "We can do a similar analysis for the two competing models for mitotic spindle size. We need our functions from earlier." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 8, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "def theor_spindle_length(gamma, phi, d):\n", " \"\"\"Compute spindle length using mathematical model\"\"\"\n", " return gamma * d / np.cbrt(1 + (gamma * d / phi)**3)\n", "\n", "\n", "def log_likelihood(params, d, ell):\n", " \"\"\"Log likelihood of spindle length model.\"\"\"\n", " gamma, phi, sigma = params\n", "\n", " if gamma <= 0 or gamma > 1 or phi <= 0:\n", " return -np.inf\n", "\n", " mu = theor_spindle_length(gamma, phi, d)\n", " return np.sum(st.norm.logpdf(ell, mu, sigma))\n", "\n", "\n", "def spindle_mle(d, ell):\n", " \"\"\"Compute MLE for parameters in spindle length model.\"\"\"\n", " with warnings.catch_warnings():\n", " warnings.simplefilter(\"ignore\")\n", "\n", " res = scipy.optimize.minimize(\n", " fun=lambda params, d, ell: -log_likelihood(params, d, ell),\n", " x0=np.array([0.5, 35, 5]),\n", " args=(d, ell),\n", " method='Powell'\n", " )\n", "\n", " if res.success:\n", " return res.x\n", " else:\n", " raise RuntimeError('Convergence failed with message', res.message) " ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "We can now perform MLE to get the parameters for each model and store them in a Pandas Series for convenience." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 9, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "df = pd.read_csv(\"../data/good_invitro_droplet_data.csv\", comment=\"#\")\n", "\n", "mle_1 = df[\"Spindle Length (um)\"].apply([np.mean, np.std]).values\n", "mle_2 = spindle_mle(\n", " df[\"Droplet Diameter (um)\"].values, df[\"Spindle Length (um)\"].values\n", ")\n", "\n", "s = pd.Series(\n", " index=[\"phi_1\", \"sigma_1\", \"gamma\", \"phi_2\", \"sigma_2\"],\n", " data=np.concatenate((mle_1, mle_2)),\n", ")" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Next, we can compute the log likelihood evaluated at the MLE." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ "phi_1 32.864030\n", "sigma_1 4.788240\n", "gamma 0.860475\n", "phi_2 38.231250\n", "sigma_2 3.753422\n", "log_like_1 -1999.517925\n", "log_like_2 -1837.158982\n", "dtype: float64" ] }, "execution_count": 10, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "s[\"log_like_1\"] = st.norm.logpdf(df[\"Spindle Length (um)\"], s[\"phi_1\"], s[\"sigma_1\"]).sum()\n", "s[\"log_like_2\"] = log_likelihood(\n", " s[[\"gamma\", \"phi_2\", \"sigma_2\"]],\n", " df[\"Droplet Diameter (um)\"],\n", " df[\"Spindle Length (um)\"],\n", ")\n", "\n", "s" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "The log likeihood for model 2, with spindle size depending on droplet diameter, is much greater than for model 1. And now we can compute the AIC,noting that there are two parameters for model 1 and three for model 2." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 11, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ "phi_1 32.864030\n", "sigma_1 4.788240\n", "gamma 0.860475\n", "phi_2 38.231250\n", "sigma_2 3.753422\n", "log_like_1 -1999.517925\n", "log_like_2 -1837.158982\n", "AIC_1 4003.035850\n", "AIC_2 3680.317964\n", "dtype: float64" ] }, "execution_count": 11, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "s[\"AIC_1\"] = -2 * (s['log_like_1'] - 2)\n", "s[\"AIC_2\"] = -2 * (s['log_like_2'] - 3)\n", "\n", "s" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "There is a massive disparity in the AICs, so we know that model 2 is strongly preferred. Nonetheless, we can compute the Akaike weight for model 1 to compare." ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/plain": [ "phi_1 3.286403e+01\n", "sigma_1 4.788240e+00\n", "gamma 8.604745e-01\n", "phi_2 3.823125e+01\n", "sigma_2 3.753422e+00\n", "log_like_1 -1.999518e+03\n", "log_like_2 -1.837159e+03\n", "AIC_1 4.003036e+03\n", "AIC_2 3.680318e+03\n", "w_single 8.369539e-71\n", "dtype: float64" ] }, "execution_count": 12, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "execute_result" } ], "source": [ "AIC_max = max(s[['AIC_1', 'AIC_2']])\n", "numerator = np.exp(-(s.loc['AIC_1'] - AIC_max)/2)\n", "denominator = numerator + np.exp(-(s['AIC_2'] - AIC_max)/2)\n", "s['w_single'] = numerator / denominator\n", "\n", "s" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "Model 1 is completely out of the question, with a tiny Akaike weight!" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Computing environment" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 13, "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "name": "stdout", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ "Python implementation: CPython\n", "Python version : 3.11.4\n", "IPython version : 8.12.2\n", "\n", "numpy : 1.24.3\n", "pandas : 2.0.3\n", "scipy : 1.11.1\n", "bokeh : 3.2.1\n", "iqplot : 0.3.4\n", "bebi103 : 0.1.15\n", "jupyterlab: 4.0.5\n", "\n" ] } ], "source": [ "%load_ext watermark\n", "%watermark -v -p numpy,pandas,scipy,bokeh,iqplot,bebi103,jupyterlab" ] } ], "metadata": { "kernelspec": { "display_name": "Python 3 (ipykernel)", "language": "python", "name": "python3" }, "language_info": { "codemirror_mode": { "name": "ipython", "version": 3 }, "file_extension": ".py", "mimetype": "text/x-python", "name": "python", "nbconvert_exporter": "python", "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", "version": "3.11.4" } }, "nbformat": 4, "nbformat_minor": 4 }