---
id: ins_hiro-pipeline-metric
operator: Chris Walker
operator_role: Founder & CEO Passetto; Chairman Refine Labs
source_url: https://www.refinelabs.com/
source_type: essay
source_title: "Refine Labs Split-the-Funnel framework and HIRO Pipeline"
source_date: 2026-03-03
captured_date: 2026-05-02
domain: [growth-demand, marketing-ops]
lifecycle: [attribution-measurement, measurement-experimentation]
maturity: applied
artifact_class: metric-model
score: { originality: 4, specificity: 5, evidence: 4, transferability: 4, source: 3 }
tier: A
related: [ins_demand-creation-vs-capture]
raw_ref: raw/expert-content/experts/chris-walker.md
---

# HIRO Pipeline: only count high-intent sources that win above 3% and reach late-stage above 25%

## Claim
The MQL is the wrong B2B unit of measurement. HIRO (High Intent Revenue Opportunity) Pipeline standardizes pipeline by requiring leads come through a *high-intent* source (demo request, contact-sales) with win rates above 3% and a late-stage conversion above 25%. Anything below those thresholds is low-intent noise that pollutes forecasting and rewards lead-volume vanity.

## Mechanism
MQLs blend demo requests with ebook downloads. Sales velocity, win rate, and revenue-per-dollar diverge by an order of magnitude across those sources, but the MQL aggregate hides the gap. HIRO forces source-level disaggregation and applies bright-line thresholds. What remains is a metric the CFO can model against revenue and the CMO can defend against marketing-spend cuts. Reported median: 76% HIRO Pipeline increase across a 20-client SaaS cohort once budget shifted toward the high-intent sources HIRO surfaces.

## Conditions
Holds when:
- The org has source-level pipeline data clean enough to compute per-source win rates.
- Leadership is willing to retire MQL as the primary marketing KPI.

Fails when:
- Early-stage companies without enough closed-won data for reliable win-rate cohorts.
- ABM-led motions where the unit is account, not lead, different metric architecture needed.

## Evidence
> "HIRO (High Intent Revenue Opportunity) Pipeline metric, which standardizes pipeline measurement across companies by requiring that leads come through a high-intent source with win rates above 3% and reach a deal stage converting at 25% or higher."

> "Across a cohort of 20 B2B SaaS clients, Refine Labs achieved a median 76% increase in HIRO Pipeline."

· Chris Walker (synthesized from operator's published work)

## Signals
- Marketing reports show HIRO Pipeline as the headline number, not MQLs.
- Per-source win rates are visible at the leadership level.
- Budget reallocation decisions reference HIRO ratio (spend ÷ HIRO Pipeline created).

## Counter-evidence
Some categories with very long sales cycles (enterprise security, pharma) genuinely benefit from upper-funnel touch tracking that HIRO discards. Forrester and SiriusDecisions argue for stage-by-stage waterfall metrics rather than a single bright-line threshold.

## Cross-references
- ins_demand-creation-vs-capture, same operator