--- name: market-research description: Deep market analysis for iOS/macOS apps including market sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM), growth trends, market maturity, entry barriers, distribution channels, and revenue potential. Use when user asks for market research, market size, market opportunity, growth potential, TAM/SAM/SOM, or market trends. allowed-tools: Bash(product-agent:*), Read, WebSearch, WebFetch --- # Market Research Skill Performs deep market research for iOS/macOS app ideas. Provides market sizing, growth analysis, and opportunity assessment. ## When to Use This Skill Use this Skill when the user wants to: - Understand market size and potential - Analyze market growth trends - Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM - Assess market maturity - Identify entry barriers - Understand distribution channels - Estimate revenue potential - Deep-dive after initial problem discovery **This is a follow-up to product-agent discovery** - use this when you need market depth. ## What This Skill Does ### 1. Market Sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM) - **TAM (Total Addressable Market):** Total revenue opportunity if you captured 100% of the market - **SAM (Serviceable Available Market):** Segment of TAM you can reach with your product/distribution - **SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market):** Realistic share you can capture in near term (1-3 years) ### 2. Growth Analysis - Historical growth rates - Future projections (3-5 years) - Growth drivers - Market trends ### 3. Market Maturity Assessment - Stage: Emerging, Growing, Mature, or Declining - Market lifecycle position - Implications for new entrants ### 4. Entry Barriers - Technical barriers - Brand/network effects - Regulatory requirements - Capital requirements - Customer acquisition costs ### 5. Distribution Channels - How apps in this category reach users - App Store dynamics - Alternative channels (web, enterprise, etc.) ### 6. Revenue Potential - Average revenue per user (ARPU) - Conversion rates - LTV (Lifetime Value) - Revenue models in use ## Output Structure ```json { "market_category": "Task Management", "market_sizing": { "tam": { "value": "$4.5B", "description": "Global productivity software market", "methodology": "Total potential revenue if product served all users globally" }, "sam": { "value": "$900M", "description": "iOS/macOS task management apps (20% of TAM)", "methodology": "Addressable via App Store distribution on Apple platforms" }, "som": { "value": "$45M", "description": "Realistic 3-year capture (5% of SAM)", "methodology": "Based on typical indie app market share penetration" } }, "market_growth": { "historical_growth": "12% CAGR (2021-2025)", "projected_growth": "10% CAGR (2026-2030)", "growth_drivers": [ "Remote work adoption", "Increased digital task management", "Mobile-first workflows" ], "headwinds": [ "Market saturation", "Consolidation toward major players" ] }, "market_maturity": { "stage": "Mature", "characteristics": [ "Established leaders (Todoist, Things)", "Clear product categories", "Slowing growth rate", "Focus on feature differentiation" ], "implications": "Differentiation critical. Hard to compete on basics. Must have unique angle." }, "entry_barriers": { "low": [ "Technical implementation (task management is straightforward)" ], "medium": [ "Building user base in crowded market", "Achieving reliable sync across devices" ], "high": [ "Brand recognition (Todoist, Things have 10+ years)", "Network effects (team collaboration features)", "Customer switching costs (data lock-in)" ], "overall_assessment": "Medium-High - Technical execution is achievable, but market position is difficult" }, "distribution_channels": { "primary": { "channel": "App Store", "percentage": "75%", "dynamics": "Discoverability challenging. ASO critical. Top charts dominated by established apps." }, "secondary": [ { "channel": "Direct website", "percentage": "15%", "dynamics": "For power users. Allows higher pricing. Better for subscription retention." }, { "channel": "Word of mouth / Communities", "percentage": "10%", "dynamics": "Productivity communities, Reddit, Twitter. High-intent users." } ] }, "revenue_potential": { "arpu": { "freemium": "$12/year (5% convert at $20/year)", "paid_only": "$30-40/year", "premium": "$60-100/year" }, "conversion_rates": { "free_to_paid": "3-7% industry average", "trial_to_paid": "15-25% with 14-day trial" }, "ltv": "$150-300 (2-5 year user lifecycle)", "realistic_year_1": "$50K-200K (1K-5K users at $40 ARPU)", "realistic_year_3": "$500K-2M (10K-50K users with growth)", "path_to_scale": "Requires strong differentiation, word-of-mouth growth, and retention >85%" }, "market_opportunity_score": "6/10 - Moderate", "reasoning": "Large market with growth, but mature and competitive. Success requires clear differentiation and excellent execution. Not a 'gold rush' market, but sustainable business possible for well-positioned product." } ``` ## How to Perform Market Research ### Step 1: Define Market Scope ``` Question: What exact market are you analyzing? - "Task management apps" (broad) - "iOS task management apps" (narrower) - "AI-powered task management for Apple users" (specific) Start specific for better analysis. ``` ### Step 2: Size the Market (TAM/SAM/SOM) **TAM Calculation:** ``` Method 1: Top-down - Global productivity software market: $50B - Task management segment: ~10% = $5B TAM Method 2: Bottom-up - Potential users globally: 500M knowledge workers - Willing to pay for task management: 20% = 100M - Average spend: $50/year - TAM = 100M × $50 = $5B ``` **SAM Calculation:** ``` Filter TAM by what you can reach: - TAM: $5B global - Your distribution: iOS/macOS App Store only - Apple users: ~30% of market = $1.5B - Addressable via App Store: 60% = $900M SAM ``` **SOM Calculation:** ``` Realistic capture in 3 years: - SAM: $900M - New entrant market share: 0.5-2% realistic - With strong differentiation: 5% optimistic - SOM = $900M × 1-5% = $9M-45M ``` ### Step 3: Assess Growth Use WebSearch to find: - Market research reports - Growth rate data - Trend articles **Key searches:** ``` "[category] market size 2026" "[category] growth rate" "[category] market trends 2026" ``` ### Step 4: Determine Maturity **Indicators:** **Emerging** (Good for new entrants): - High growth (>20% CAGR) - No clear leaders - Rapid innovation - Unclear best practices **Growing** (Good opportunity): - Strong growth (10-20% CAGR) - Leaders emerging - Product-market fit established - Room for differentiation **Mature** (Differentiation required): - Moderate growth (5-10% CAGR) - Clear leaders - Established patterns - Compete on specific niches **Declining** (Avoid): - Negative or flat growth - Consolidation - Commoditization ### Step 5: Identify Barriers **Low barriers → Easier entry but more competition** **High barriers → Harder entry but better moat if you succeed** Assess: - Technical complexity - Brand importance - Network effects - Switching costs - Capital needs ### Step 6: Map Distribution **For iOS/macOS apps:** - App Store (primary) - understand ranking factors - TestFlight (beta) - Direct website (for pro users) - SetApp / Bundle services - Enterprise/B2B channels ### Step 7: Estimate Revenue **Key metrics to research:** - Industry ARPU - Typical conversion rates - Churn rates - User acquisition costs **Reality check:** ``` Year 1: 1K-5K users (realistic for indie) Year 2: 5K-20K users (with growth) Year 3: 20K-100K users (if successful) At $40 ARPU: Year 1: $40K-200K Year 2: $200K-800K Year 3: $800K-4M ``` ## Common Questions ### "How do I calculate TAM without market reports?" **Bottom-up approach:** 1. Estimate target user count (e.g., "iOS users who manage tasks") 2. Research willingness to pay (look at competitor pricing) 3. Multiply: TAM = Users × Average Spend **Proxy approach:** 1. Find similar market (e.g., "Calendar apps") 2. Adjust for your market differences 3. Validate with multiple sources ### "What's a 'good' market size?" **For indie developers:** - **SOM > $5M:** Good opportunity - **SOM $1-5M:** Viable if low competition - **SOM < $1M:** Likely too small unless niche/passion project **Remember:** $1M SOM = ~25K users at $40 ARPU (achievable!) ### "How mature is too mature?" **Mature markets CAN work if:** - You have clear differentiation - Targeting underserved niche - Better execution than incumbents - Novel business model **Avoid if:** - No differentiation angle - Dominant players with network effects - Declining growth - Your idea is "me too" ## Integration with Other Skills Use market-research **after** initial discovery: ``` 1. product-agent discover → Problem validation 2. market-research → Market opportunity sizing 3. competitive-analysis → Understand players 4. → Decision: Build vs. Don't Build ``` ## Example Research Flow **User asks:** "Research the market for habit tracking apps" **You do:** 1. **Define scope:** - "iOS habit tracking apps targeting personal development users" 2. **Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM:** - TAM: Personal development app market $3B - SAM: iOS habit tracking apps $300M (10%) - SOM: Realistic 3-year capture $15M (5%) 3. **Growth analysis (WebSearch):** - Search: "habit tracking app market growth 2026" - Result: 15% CAGR, driven by wellness trends 4. **Maturity:** - Stage: Growing (strong leaders emerging but room for innovation) - Key players: Streaks, Habitica, Way of Life 5. **Barriers:** - Low: Technical (habit tracking is simple) - Medium: Building habit formation psychology - High: Established apps have user data (switching cost) 6. **Distribution:** - App Store: 80% (ASO critical) - Wellness communities: 15% - Influencer partnerships: 5% 7. **Revenue potential:** - ARPU: $20/year (mix of $2.99 one-time and $5/mo subscriptions) - Year 3 realistic: $300K (15K users) 8. **Present findings:** ``` Market Research: Habit Tracking Apps Market Size: - TAM: $3B (personal development apps) - SAM: $300M (iOS habit tracking) - SOM: $15M (5% realistic 3-year capture) Growth: 15% CAGR (wellness trend-driven) Maturity: Growing (opportunity for innovation) Opportunity Score: 7/10 - Good Reasoning: Growing market with room for differentiation. Not overcrowded like task management. Wellness trend tailwind. Success depends on unique habit formation approach and strong retention (>70%). Revenue Potential: - Year 1: $20K-100K - Year 3: $200K-1M - Requires: Good ASO, word-of-mouth, community building ``` ## Tips for Accurate Research 1. **Use Multiple Sources:** Don't rely on one number 2. **Be Conservative:** Better to underestimate than over 3. **Validate with Proxies:** Compare to similar successful apps 4. **Check App Annie/Sensor Tower:** For actual app market data 5. **Read Financial Reports:** Public companies disclose market data ## When to Run This Analysis **Perfect timing:** - After discovery shows potential - Before committing to development - When seeking funding (investors want market size) - When setting revenue goals **Skip if:** - Discovery showed "DON'T BUILD" - Just experimenting/learning - Building for personal use only ## Output File Location Save market research results to one of these locations: - `market-research.md` (project root) - `docs/market-research.md` (if docs folder exists) **Format**: Use the JSON structure in the Output Structure section, wrapped in a markdown code block with context and summary. **Integration**: The PRD generator skill will automatically look for this file and integrate the insights into the PRD's Market Context section (TAM/SAM/SOM, growth trends, entry barriers, revenue expectations). --- **Remember:** Market research informs GO/NO-GO decisions. A big market with competition beats a tiny market with no competition (usually).