---
name: prd-v09-launch-metrics
description: >
  Define success criteria and tracking setup for launch during PRD v0.9 Go-to-Market.
  Triggers on requests to define launch metrics, set up tracking, or when user asks "how do we measure launch success?",
  "launch KPIs", "tracking setup", "success criteria", "analytics", "launch goals".
  Outputs KPI- entries specialized for launch measurement.
context: fork
allowed-tools:
  - Read
  - Write
  - Edit
  - Glob
  - Grep
  - WebSearch
  - WebFetch

execution_modes:
  default: standard
  supports: [quick, standard, deep]
---

# Launch Metrics

Position in workflow: v0.9 GTM Strategy → **v0.9 Launch Metrics** → v0.9 Feedback Loop Setup

## Execution Mode

Default is **standard**. See [`.claude/rules/08-skill-execution-modes.md`](../../rules/08-skill-execution-modes.md) for selection logic.

| Mode | What this skill produces |
|------|--------------------------|
| **quick** | 3 KPIs (one each for Reach/Acquisition/Activation); Day 7 targets; basic dashboard |
| **standard** | Full funnel (Reach → Referral); Day 1/7/30 targets; dashboards + alerts |
| **deep** | Full funnel + tier targets + Day 1/7/30/90 + product-type calibration + cohort analysis |

## Consumes

This skill requires prior work from v0.3-v0.9:

- **KPI-\* outcome entries from v0.3** (from v0.3 Outcome Definition) — Baseline KPI- entries define success metrics for the product; launch-specific KPI- entries are calibrated variants
- **GTM-\* campaign specifications** (from v0.9 GTM Strategy) — GTM channels inform launch-specific KPI- tracking (e.g., Product Hunt channel → KPI for PH-originated signups); timeline defines metric collection windows (Day 1, Day 7, Day 30, Day 90)
- **BR-\* product type** (from v0.2 Product Type Classification) — Product type (Clone/Unbundle/Undercut/Slice/Innovation) determines metric targets and benchmarks (Fast Follow = higher activation expected, lower retention)
- **CFD-\* market benchmarks** (from v0.1-v0.2 research) — Competitive analysis and market data inform realistic KPI- targets (e.g., "developer tools average 30-50% activation")
- **DEP-\* deployment infrastructure** (from v0.8 Release Planning) — Deployment baselines from staging inform KPI- thresholds (e.g., error rate baseline → activation threshold)
- **MON-\* monitoring setup** (from v0.8 Monitoring Setup) — Infrastructure metrics (latency, error rate) inform KPI- dashboards and alert conditions during launch

This skill assumes GTM- entries are complete and tracking infrastructure is configured.

## Produces

This skill creates/updates:

- **KPI-\* launch-specific entries** (launch metrics with targets and thresholds) — Funnel metrics (Reach → Acquisition → Activation → Retention → Revenue → Referral) with Day 1/7/30/90 targets, action thresholds (Red/Yellow/Green), and channel attribution
- **Launch dashboard specification** — Visual layout and refresh rate for real-time launch monitoring; links KPI- to MON- infrastructure
- **Metric tracking schema** — Event definitions and tracking setup for conversion funnel

All KPI- entries for launch are **measurement specifications**, not confidence-based. They are:
- **Actionable** (Red/Yellow/Green thresholds trigger specific responses)
- **Calibrated** (targets account for product type and market benchmarks from CFD-)
- **Traceable** (each KPI- links to GTM- channels and v0.3 baseline KPI-XX)
- **Measurable** (specific event tracking, data sources, calculation formulas)
- **Time-bound** (explicit timeframes: Day 1, Week 1, Month 1)

Example KPI- entries:
```markdown
KPI-101: Website Visitors (Launch Week)
Tier: Tier 3 (Leading)
Category: Reach
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Growth Team

Definition: Unique visitors to marketing website from all GTM- channels
Unit: count
Source: Google Analytics 4 / Plausible

Targets:
  Day 1: 5,000 (from GTM-002 PH expectations + GTM-007 paid channel)
  Day 7: 25,000 (cumulative from all GTM channels)
  Day 30: 50,000 (post-launch momentum)
  Day 90: 100,000

Evidence: CFD-025 (competitor benchmarks show 5-10% market awareness for Fast Follow), CFD-008 (our GTM reach model projects this based on channel scale)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow — higher reach expected due to known category

Tracking:
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Reach panel
  Alert: <1,000 on Day 1 (channel distribution problem)

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <2,500 Day 7 (channel underperformance)
  Yellow: <20,000 Day 7 (80% of target)
  Green: >25,000 Day 7

GTM Connection: GTM-002 (Product Hunt), GTM-007 (Website), GTM-008 (Paid ads), GTM-010 (Email)
v0.3 KPI Link: N/A (launch-specific)

---

KPI-102: Trial Signups
Tier: Tier 2 (Conversion)
Category: Acquisition
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: Completed signup flow (email verified, profile created)
Unit: count
Source: Application database + Mixpanel

Targets:
  Day 1: 500 (5-10% conversion from reach)
  Day 7: 2,000 (extrapolated from Day 1 + momentum)
  Day 30: 5,000 (post-launch plateau)
  Day 90: 15,000 (month 3 growth)

Evidence: CFD-030 (developer SaaS benchmarks show 5-10% landing-to-signup), CFD-031 (our onboarding tested with 8% conversion)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = 8-10% expected (higher than average because users understand category)

Tracking:
  Event: signup_completed { source, campaign_id, user_segment }
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Acquisition panel
  Alert: Conversion rate <5%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <100 Day 1 (messaging/channel mismatch — escalate GTM)
  Yellow: <400 Day 1 (funnel friction — investigate landing page)
  Green: >500 Day 1

GTM Connection: GTM-002, GTM-004 (Landing Page), GTM-005 (Email), GTM-008 (Ads)
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-001 (Trial Signups baseline from Outcome Definition)

---

KPI-103: Activation Rate (First Value Achievement)
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Activation
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of signups who complete first core action (generate code suggestion) within 24h
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel + Application events

Targets:
  Day 1: 40% (from CFD-035 developer tool benchmarks)
  Day 7: 45% (slight improvement with onboarding refinement)
  Day 30: 50% (post-launch optimizations)
  Day 90: 55% (mature product experience)

Evidence: CFD-035 (activation benchmarks for dev tools: 30-50%), CFD-015 (our UJ-001 usability test showed 45% completed core action)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = higher baseline (users already understand AI coding assists)

Tracking:
  Event: first_value_achieved { user_id, action_type, time_to_value_seconds }
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Activation panel
  Alert: Drops below 30% (onboarding broken)

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <25% (product experience broken — pause marketing, investigate UJ-001)
  Yellow: <35% (friction in onboarding — iterate SCR-001/002)
  Green: >45% (strong PMF signal)

GTM Connection: Quality indicator for all GTM- channels (tells us if messaging matches product)
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-002 (Activation Rate from Outcome Definition)

---

KPI-104: Day 7 Retention
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Retention
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of Day 0 signups who return and take an action on Day 7
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel cohort analysis

Targets:
  Day 7: 25% (from CFD-040 B2B SaaS benchmarks)
  Day 30: 20% of original (cohort retention)
  Day 90: 15% of original (monthly cohort)

Evidence: CFD-040 (B2B SaaS D7 retention benchmarks 20-30%), CFD-015 (our beta test: 22% D7 retention with 50 users)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = critical (users can easily switch back to competitors) — retention signal validates PMF

Tracking:
  Event: session_start { user_id, cohort_day }
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Retention panel
  Alert: Day 7 retention <15% (fundamental problem)

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <15% (product-market fit issue — consider pivot in features, messaging)
  Yellow: <20% (value delivery problem — investigate UJ-/feature completeness)
  Green: >30% (strong retention, ready for growth)

GTM Connection: Quality indicator for all GTM- channels
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-003 (Retention Rate from Outcome Definition)
```

## Core Concept: Metrics as North Star

> Launch metrics are not vanity numbers—they are **decision criteria**. Each metric should answer: "Is this working? Should we double down or pivot?" If a metric doesn't inform action, don't track it.

## Metric Layers for Launch

| Layer | What to Measure | Timeframe |
|-------|-----------------|-----------|
| **Reach** | How many saw us | Day 0-7 |
| **Acquisition** | How many signed up | Day 0-30 |
| **Activation** | How many got value | Day 1-14 |
| **Retention** | How many came back | Week 2-4 |
| **Revenue** | How many paid | Week 2-8 |
| **Referral** | How many shared | Week 3+ |

## Execution

1. **Review v0.3 Outcome Definition KPIs**
   - What KPI- entries exist from v0.3?
   - Which are most relevant for launch?
   - What launch-specific metrics are needed?

2. **Define launch-specific metrics**
   - Channel performance (per GTM-)
   - Funnel progression
   - Activation milestones
   - Early retention signals

3. **Set targets per timeframe**
   - Day 1, Day 7, Day 30, Day 90
   - Tie to product type expectations (from v0.2 BR-)

4. **Configure tracking infrastructure**
   - Analytics platforms
   - Event schemas
   - Dashboard setup

5. **Create visibility**
   - Daily launch dashboard
   - Weekly metrics review
   - Automated alerts for thresholds

6. **Create/Update KPI- entries** for launch

## KPI- Output Template (Launch Variant)

```
KPI-XXX: [Launch Metric Name]
Tier: [Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Tier 3]
Category: [Reach | Acquisition | Activation | Retention | Revenue | Referral]
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: [Who monitors this metric]

Definition: [Exact calculation formula]
Unit: [count | percentage | currency | ratio]
Source: [Where data comes from]

Targets:
  Day 1: [target]
  Day 7: [target]
  Day 30: [target]
  Day 90: [target]

Evidence: [CFD-XXX or benchmark that justifies targets]
Product Type Calibration: [How product type affects expectations]

Tracking:
  Event: [analytics event name if applicable]
  Dashboard: [Where to view this metric]
  Alert: [When to get notified]

Action Thresholds:
  Red: [Below this = urgent intervention]
  Yellow: [Below this = investigate]
  Green: [Above this = on track]

GTM Connection: [GTM-XXX channels this measures]
v0.3 KPI Link: [KPI-YYY from Outcome Definition if applicable]
```

**Example KPI- entries:**

```
KPI-101: Website Visitors (Launch Week)
Tier: Tier 3 (Leading)
Category: Reach
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Growth Team

Definition: Unique visitors to marketing site
Unit: count
Source: Google Analytics / Plausible

Targets:
  Day 1: 5,000
  Day 7: 25,000
  Day 30: 50,000
  Day 90: 100,000

Evidence: CFD-025 (competitor launch benchmarks)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = higher baseline expected

Tracking:
  Event: page_view (landing pages)
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Reach panel
  Alert: <1,000 on Day 1

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <2,500 Day 7 (50% of target)
  Yellow: <20,000 Day 7 (80% of target)
  Green: >25,000 Day 7

GTM Connection: GTM-002 (Product Hunt), GTM-007 (Website)
v0.3 KPI Link: N/A (launch-specific)
```

```
KPI-102: Trial Signups
Tier: Tier 2 (Conversion)
Category: Acquisition
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: Completed signup flow (email verified)
Unit: count
Source: Application database + Mixpanel

Targets:
  Day 1: 500
  Day 7: 2,000
  Day 30: 5,000
  Day 90: 15,000

Evidence: CFD-030 (industry signup rate benchmarks 5-10%)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = 8-10% expected conversion

Tracking:
  Event: signup_completed
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Acquisition panel
  Alert: Conversion rate <5%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <100 Day 1 (messaging/channel mismatch)
  Yellow: <400 Day 1 (funnel friction)
  Green: >500 Day 1

GTM Connection: GTM-002, GTM-004 (Landing Page)
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-001 (Trial Signups, general)
```

```
KPI-103: Activation Rate (First Value)
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Activation
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of signups who complete first value action within 24h
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel + Application events

First Value Action: Complete first [core action - e.g., generate code suggestion]

Targets:
  Day 1: 40%
  Day 7: 45%
  Day 30: 50%
  Day 90: 55%

Evidence: CFD-035 (activation benchmarks for dev tools 30-50%)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = higher baseline (users know the category)

Tracking:
  Event: first_value_achieved
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Activation panel
  Alert: Drops below 30%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <25% (onboarding broken)
  Yellow: <35% (friction points)
  Green: >45%

GTM Connection: Measures effectiveness of all GTM- channels
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-002 (Activation Rate, general)
```

```
KPI-104: Day 7 Retention
Tier: Tier 1 (Critical)
Category: Retention
Stage: Launch (v0.9)
Owner: Product Team

Definition: % of Day 0 signups who return on Day 7
Unit: percentage
Source: Mixpanel cohort analysis

Targets:
  Day 7: 25%
  Day 30: 20% (of Day 0)
  Day 90: 15% (of Day 0)

Evidence: CFD-040 (B2B SaaS retention benchmarks)
Product Type Calibration: Fast Follow = retention critical (easy to switch back)

Tracking:
  Event: session_start (Day 7 cohort)
  Dashboard: Launch Dashboard > Retention panel
  Alert: Day 7 retention <15%

Action Thresholds:
  Red: <15% (critical product-market fit issue)
  Yellow: <20% (value delivery problem)
  Green: >30% (strong PMF signal)

GTM Connection: Quality indicator for all GTM- traffic
v0.3 KPI Link: KPI-003 (Retention Rate, general)
```

## The Launch Funnel

Track conversion at each stage:

```
REACH → ACQUISITION → ACTIVATION → RETENTION → REVENUE → REFERRAL
 100%      10%           50%          25%        20%       10%
```

| Stage | Key Metric | Benchmark |
|-------|------------|-----------|
| Reach → Acquisition | Signup Rate | 5-15% |
| Acquisition → Activation | Activation Rate | 30-60% |
| Activation → Retention | D7 Retention | 20-40% |
| Retention → Revenue | Conversion Rate | 2-10% |
| Revenue → Referral | NPS / Referral Rate | 10-30% |

## Product Type Calibration

Expectations vary by product type (from v0.2 BR-):

| Product Type | Acquisition | Activation | Retention | Revenue |
|--------------|-------------|------------|-----------|---------|
| **Fast Follow** | High (known category) | High (familiar UX) | Medium (easy to switch) | Quick |
| **Slice** | Medium (niche) | High (focused value) | High (workflow fit) | Medium |
| **Innovation** | Low (education needed) | Low (learning curve) | High (if activated) | Slow |

## Tracking Infrastructure Checklist

| Component | Purpose | Tool Examples |
|-----------|---------|---------------|
| **Product Analytics** | User behavior | Mixpanel, Amplitude, PostHog |
| **Web Analytics** | Traffic, sources | GA4, Plausible, Fathom |
| **Event Tracking** | Specific actions | Segment, custom events |
| **Error Tracking** | Failures, issues | Sentry, LogRocket |
| **Session Recording** | User experience | Hotjar, FullStory |
| **A/B Testing** | Experiments | LaunchDarkly, Statsig |

## Event Schema for Launch

Define standard events for launch tracking:

```
# Acquisition Events
signup_started: { source, campaign, referrer }
signup_completed: { source, campaign, user_id }
signup_abandoned: { step, source, reason }

# Activation Events
onboarding_started: { user_id }
onboarding_step_completed: { user_id, step }
first_value_achieved: { user_id, action, time_to_value }

# Engagement Events
feature_used: { user_id, feature, context }
session_start: { user_id, day_number }
session_end: { user_id, duration }

# Conversion Events
upgrade_started: { user_id, plan }
payment_completed: { user_id, plan, amount }
```

## Launch Dashboard Layout

```
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ LAUNCH DASHBOARD                    Last updated: [time]    │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ REACH          │ ACQUISITION     │ ACTIVATION              │
│ Visitors: X    │ Signups: Y      │ Activated: Z%           │
│ Target: X      │ Target: Y       │ Target: Z%              │
│ [trend chart]  │ [trend chart]   │ [trend chart]           │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ RETENTION      │ REVENUE         │ CHANNELS                │
│ D7: X%         │ MRR: $Y         │ Product Hunt: X         │
│ Target: X%     │ Target: $Y      │ Direct: Y               │
│ [cohort chart] │ [revenue chart] │ [breakdown chart]       │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```

## Anti-Patterns

| Pattern | Signal | Fix |
|---------|--------|-----|
| **Vanity metrics only** | Tracking visitors but not activation | Focus on funnel progression |
| **No targets** | "We got 1000 signups!" (is that good?) | Set explicit targets per timeframe |
| **Lagging only** | Only tracking revenue | Add leading indicators (activation) |
| **No action thresholds** | Metrics exist but no response plan | Define red/yellow/green zones |
| **Over-instrumentation** | 200 events, can't find signal | Focus on 10-15 key events |
| **No attribution** | Don't know which channel works | Track source for all signups |

## Quality Gates

Before proceeding to Feedback Loop Setup:

- [ ] Launch funnel metrics defined (Reach → Referral)
- [ ] Targets set for Day 1, Day 7, Day 30
- [ ] Tracking infrastructure configured
- [ ] Launch dashboard created and accessible
- [ ] Action thresholds defined for critical metrics
- [ ] KPI- entries link to GTM- channels
- [ ] Product type calibration applied to targets

## Downstream Connections

| Consumer | What It Uses | Example |
|----------|--------------|---------|
| **Feedback Loop Setup** | KPI- thresholds trigger feedback collection | KPI-103 <30% → investigate with CFD- |
| **Daily Standup** | KPI- dashboard for launch status | "Activation at 42%, on track" |
| **Pivot Decisions** | KPI- data informs strategy | KPI-104 <15% → fundamental problem |
| **Investor Updates** | KPI- for launch performance | "Day 30: 5000 signups, 45% activated" |
| **v1.0 Planning** | KPI- baselines for growth targets | KPI-102 baseline → 10% MoM growth |

## Detailed References

- **Metric definition examples**: See `references/metric-examples.md`
- **KPI- entry template**: See `assets/kpi-launch-template.md`
- **Dashboard design guide**: See `references/dashboard-design.md`
- **Event schema examples**: See `references/event-schema.md`