{ "generated_at": "2026-09-17T14:14:02.643474+00:00", "model": "strategic_pressure_v1_2", "description": "Explainable strategic pressure layer for the United States-Iran conflict.", "scoring_formula": "final_event_score = existing_operational_component + strategic_modifier", "current_day_policy": "The current UTC day is excluded.", "rolling_window_days": 7, "index_formula": "pressure_index = clamp(50.0 + weighted_7d_score * 2.0, 0, 100)", "context_multiplier": "Fixed at 1.0 in V1.2.", "event_overlap_policy": "Per actor and event, only the strongest increasing and strongest decreasing indicator may be selected.", "daily_indicator_policy": "For each actor, UTC date and indicator, only the strongest evidence item keeps its score. Other items remain visible with final_score 0.", "presidential_warning_policy": "Requires an explicit warning, threat, ultimatum or future military-action construction.", "bilateral_policy": "Recognised bilateral negotiation and ceasefire events may contribute to both the USA and Iran.", "inputs": { "non_kinetic": "docs/event_timeline.json", "kinetic": "docs/kinetic_events.json", "strategic_interests": "data/strategic/strategic_interests.json", "strategic_indicators": "data/strategic/strategic_indicators.json" }, "statistics": { "non_kinetic_events_loaded": 588, "kinetic_events_loaded": 746, "unique_events_scanned": 1269, "strategic_evidence_contributions": 347, "evidence_contributions_by_actor": { "usa": 112, "iran": 235 }, "scored_contributions_by_actor": { "usa": 79, "iran": 125 }, "suppressed_duplicates_by_actor": { "usa": 33, "iran": 110 }, "contributions_by_source_layer": { "non_kinetic": 301, "kinetic": 46 }, "evidence_indicator_counts": { "iran:negotiation": 189, "usa:negotiation": 91, "iran:missile_test": 32, "usa:presidential_warning": 15, "iran:hormuz_threat": 9, "usa:ceasefire_support": 8, "iran:missile_preparation": 6, "iran:strike_preparation": 2, "iran:nuclear_activity": 1, "usa:carrier_deployment": 1 }, "scored_indicator_counts": { "iran:negotiation": 95, "usa:negotiation": 62, "iran:missile_test": 16, "usa:presidential_warning": 15, "iran:hormuz_threat": 9, "iran:missile_preparation": 6, "usa:ceasefire_support": 4, "iran:strike_preparation": 2, "iran:nuclear_activity": 1, "usa:carrier_deployment": 1 }, "skipped_without_timestamp": 0, "skipped_current_utc_day": 0, "history_day_count": 190 }, "configuration_warnings": [], "status": "ok", "latest_complete_utc_day": "2026-09-15", "current": { "date": "2026-09-15", "calculation_mode": "live", "usa": { "raw_score": 0.0, "positive_score": 0.0, "negative_score": 0.0, "event_count": 1, "scored_event_count": 1, "evidence_event_count": 1, "suppressed_duplicate_count": 0, "increase_event_count": 0, "decrease_event_count": 0, "contributors": [ { "event_id": "INFO-000001", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:21:00+00:00", "date": "2026-09-15", "actor": "usa", "bilateral_event": true, "title": "After Trump floats talks, Iran security chief rejects negotiations until ‘conditions’ met - The Times of Israel", "source_layer": "non_kinetic", "event_type": "diplomatic", "event_direction": "escalation", "operational_component": 6.0, "strategic_modifier": -6.0, "context_multiplier": 1.0, "original_final_score": 0.0, "final_score": 0.0, "duplicate_indicator_evidence": false, "daily_score_suppressed": false, "suppression_reason": null, "primary_daily_indicator": "negotiation", "indicators": [ { "id": "negotiation", "name": "Negotiation", "score": -6.0, "direction": "decrease", "interest": { "id": "avoid_full_scale_war", "name": "Avoid full-scale regional war", "weight": 10.0 }, "recognition_rule_count": 2 } ], "reason": "United States: Negotiation. Operational component: +6.00; strategic modifier: -6.00; final contribution before daily deduplication: +0.00. Event: After Trump floats talks, Iran security chief rejects negotiations until ‘conditions’ met - The Times of Israel", "source": "\"iran israel usa war when:7d\" - Google News", "link": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNSC1ISVZMWm5kTGg3eTVKTDBPc1lJeXVuVmlMWFhzYnhHVjhCM3o2cmFuWldiYjU4SVJlR09ZMWVTWmN6VzBiMDV5WmlpVWdBRkI3aUdBWkNKc2lXSjh6ejVieHk5ZWRBNkZpY2V1YTZOZC1zZXZ1RGgxb1FPUkp2QXBDY0QtOTUxMjZjRkdVT1RucTZLV2hMRDNmeTBWZzBLRVViRURENmFZT0pOV3RKcFlReElsOHBp0gG-AUFVX3lxTE15a2RyZ0FJb3R1eXpKclFQSE9jM3N4TWVZQjl1ZTRuS2xLVU1VR2F6MlZJcWc4N0c3YU1xVGRwMDFEOUppNEhwUDJBbll4NzdOazBFdW1MUDBsclk0SjEyYUVBR2lCbG9MMW9rRGswS3ZfWjlSbkhZS2I3b2l4cS1HbU9oTE5sblF4UXJDcnd6UVM4VmRrUkhQNk9MRkdHbGRHZjlsVHhqczd0N1dRVHpOTVVOaGl5bS1YRzh0T1E?oc=5", "existing_event_score": 6.0, "existing_direction_score": -3.0, "winning_daily_indicators": [ "negotiation" ], "duplicate_daily_indicators": [] } ], "weighted_score_7d": 0.0, "pressure_index_7d": 50.0, "pressure_level": "balanced", "trend": "stable", "strongest_contributors": [ { "event_id": "INFO-000001", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:21:00+00:00", "date": "2026-09-15", "actor": "usa", "bilateral_event": true, "title": "After Trump floats talks, Iran security chief rejects negotiations until ‘conditions’ met - The Times of Israel", "source_layer": "non_kinetic", "event_type": "diplomatic", "event_direction": "escalation", "operational_component": 6.0, "strategic_modifier": -6.0, "context_multiplier": 1.0, "original_final_score": 0.0, "final_score": 0.0, "duplicate_indicator_evidence": false, "daily_score_suppressed": false, "suppression_reason": null, "primary_daily_indicator": "negotiation", "indicators": [ { "id": "negotiation", "name": "Negotiation", "score": -6.0, "direction": "decrease", "interest": { "id": "avoid_full_scale_war", "name": "Avoid full-scale regional war", "weight": 10.0 }, "recognition_rule_count": 2 } ], "reason": "United States: Negotiation. Operational component: +6.00; strategic modifier: -6.00; final contribution before daily deduplication: +0.00. Event: After Trump floats talks, Iran security chief rejects negotiations until ‘conditions’ met - The Times of Israel", "source": "\"iran israel usa war when:7d\" - Google News", "link": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNSC1ISVZMWm5kTGg3eTVKTDBPc1lJeXVuVmlMWFhzYnhHVjhCM3o2cmFuWldiYjU4SVJlR09ZMWVTWmN6VzBiMDV5WmlpVWdBRkI3aUdBWkNKc2lXSjh6ejVieHk5ZWRBNkZpY2V1YTZOZC1zZXZ1RGgxb1FPUkp2QXBDY0QtOTUxMjZjRkdVT1RucTZLV2hMRDNmeTBWZzBLRVViRURENmFZT0pOV3RKcFlReElsOHBp0gG-AUFVX3lxTE15a2RyZ0FJb3R1eXpKclFQSE9jM3N4TWVZQjl1ZTRuS2xLVU1VR2F6MlZJcWc4N0c3YU1xVGRwMDFEOUppNEhwUDJBbll4NzdOazBFdW1MUDBsclk0SjEyYUVBR2lCbG9MMW9rRGswS3ZfWjlSbkhZS2I3b2l4cS1HbU9oTE5sblF4UXJDcnd6UVM4VmRrUkhQNk9MRkdHbGRHZjlsVHhqczd0N1dRVHpOTVVOaGl5bS1YRzh0T1E?oc=5", "existing_event_score": 6.0, "existing_direction_score": -3.0, "winning_daily_indicators": [ "negotiation" ], "duplicate_daily_indicators": [] } ] }, "iran": { "raw_score": 0.0, "positive_score": 0.0, "negative_score": 0.0, "event_count": 1, "scored_event_count": 1, "evidence_event_count": 1, "suppressed_duplicate_count": 0, "increase_event_count": 0, "decrease_event_count": 0, "contributors": [ { "event_id": "INFO-000001", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:21:00+00:00", "date": "2026-09-15", "actor": "iran", "bilateral_event": true, "title": "After Trump floats talks, Iran security chief rejects negotiations until ‘conditions’ met - The Times of Israel", "source_layer": "non_kinetic", "event_type": "diplomatic", "event_direction": "escalation", "operational_component": 6.0, "strategic_modifier": -6.0, "context_multiplier": 1.0, "original_final_score": 0.0, "final_score": 0.0, "duplicate_indicator_evidence": false, "daily_score_suppressed": false, "suppression_reason": null, "primary_daily_indicator": "negotiation", "indicators": [ { "id": "negotiation", "name": "Negotiation", "score": -6.0, "direction": "decrease", "interest": { "id": "avoid_regime_destroying_war", "name": "Avoid regime-destroying war", "weight": 10.0 }, "recognition_rule_count": 2 } ], "reason": "Iran: Negotiation. Operational component: +6.00; strategic modifier: -6.00; final contribution before daily deduplication: +0.00. Event: After Trump floats talks, Iran security chief rejects negotiations until ‘conditions’ met - The Times of Israel", "source": "\"iran israel usa war when:7d\" - Google News", "link": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNSC1ISVZMWm5kTGg3eTVKTDBPc1lJeXVuVmlMWFhzYnhHVjhCM3o2cmFuWldiYjU4SVJlR09ZMWVTWmN6VzBiMDV5WmlpVWdBRkI3aUdBWkNKc2lXSjh6ejVieHk5ZWRBNkZpY2V1YTZOZC1zZXZ1RGgxb1FPUkp2QXBDY0QtOTUxMjZjRkdVT1RucTZLV2hMRDNmeTBWZzBLRVViRURENmFZT0pOV3RKcFlReElsOHBp0gG-AUFVX3lxTE15a2RyZ0FJb3R1eXpKclFQSE9jM3N4TWVZQjl1ZTRuS2xLVU1VR2F6MlZJcWc4N0c3YU1xVGRwMDFEOUppNEhwUDJBbll4NzdOazBFdW1MUDBsclk0SjEyYUVBR2lCbG9MMW9rRGswS3ZfWjlSbkhZS2I3b2l4cS1HbU9oTE5sblF4UXJDcnd6UVM4VmRrUkhQNk9MRkdHbGRHZjlsVHhqczd0N1dRVHpOTVVOaGl5bS1YRzh0T1E?oc=5", "existing_event_score": 6.0, "existing_direction_score": -3.0, "winning_daily_indicators": [ "negotiation" ], "duplicate_daily_indicators": [] } ], "weighted_score_7d": -0.5, "pressure_index_7d": 49.0, "pressure_level": "balanced", "trend": "decrease", "strongest_contributors": [ { "event_id": "INFO-000001", "timestamp": "2026-09-15T11:21:00+00:00", "date": "2026-09-15", "actor": "iran", "bilateral_event": true, "title": "After Trump floats talks, Iran security chief rejects negotiations until ‘conditions’ met - The Times of Israel", "source_layer": "non_kinetic", "event_type": "diplomatic", "event_direction": "escalation", "operational_component": 6.0, "strategic_modifier": -6.0, "context_multiplier": 1.0, "original_final_score": 0.0, "final_score": 0.0, "duplicate_indicator_evidence": false, "daily_score_suppressed": false, "suppression_reason": null, "primary_daily_indicator": "negotiation", "indicators": [ { "id": "negotiation", "name": "Negotiation", "score": -6.0, "direction": "decrease", "interest": { "id": "avoid_regime_destroying_war", "name": "Avoid regime-destroying war", "weight": 10.0 }, "recognition_rule_count": 2 } ], "reason": "Iran: Negotiation. Operational component: +6.00; strategic modifier: -6.00; final contribution before daily deduplication: +0.00. Event: After Trump floats talks, Iran security chief rejects negotiations until ‘conditions’ met - The Times of Israel", "source": "\"iran israel usa war when:7d\" - Google News", "link": "https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxNSC1ISVZMWm5kTGg3eTVKTDBPc1lJeXVuVmlMWFhzYnhHVjhCM3o2cmFuWldiYjU4SVJlR09ZMWVTWmN6VzBiMDV5WmlpVWdBRkI3aUdBWkNKc2lXSjh6ejVieHk5ZWRBNkZpY2V1YTZOZC1zZXZ1RGgxb1FPUkp2QXBDY0QtOTUxMjZjRkdVT1RucTZLV2hMRDNmeTBWZzBLRVViRURENmFZT0pOV3RKcFlReElsOHBp0gG-AUFVX3lxTE15a2RyZ0FJb3R1eXpKclFQSE9jM3N4TWVZQjl1ZTRuS2xLVU1VR2F6MlZJcWc4N0c3YU1xVGRwMDFEOUppNEhwUDJBbll4NzdOazBFdW1MUDBsclk0SjEyYUVBR2lCbG9MMW9rRGswS3ZfWjlSbkhZS2I3b2l4cS1HbU9oTE5sblF4UXJDcnd6UVM4VmRrUkhQNk9MRkdHbGRHZjlsVHhqczd0N1dRVHpOTVVOaGl5bS1YRzh0T1E?oc=5", "existing_event_score": 6.0, "existing_direction_score": -3.0, "winning_daily_indicators": [ "negotiation" ], "duplicate_daily_indicators": [] } ] }, "overall": { "pressure_index_7d": 49.5, "pressure_level": "balanced", "trend": "stable", "calculation": "Arithmetic mean of USA and Iran seven-day pressure indices" } } }