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name: assumption-audit
description: "Surface the hidden assumptions a plan or belief rests on, then test what happens when each one is wrong. Use when asked what am I assuming here, check my assumptions, what if I'm wrong about, or stress-test my thinking. Produces the unstated assumptions your conclusion depends on (ranked by how load-bearing they are), a flip of each to see which one breaking would change everything, and the cheapest way to check the riskiest ones — because the assumption you didn't know you were making is what sinks plans."
---

# Assumption Audit

Every plan sits on a stack of assumptions, and the dangerous ones are invisible — you don't question what you don't notice you believe. This drags them into the light, ranks them by how much weight they carry, and flips the load-bearing ones to see which single wrong assumption would collapse the whole thing. Then it tells you the cheapest way to check that one before you bet on it.

## What This Skill Produces

- **The assumption list** — the unstated beliefs your plan/conclusion depends on, including the ones you didn't realize you were making
- **Load-bearing ranking** — which assumptions, if wrong, barely matter vs. which would collapse everything
- **The flip test** — for the critical ones, what actually happens if they're false
- **The cheap check** — the fastest, lowest-cost way to test the riskiest assumption before committing

## Required Inputs

Ask for these if not provided:
- **The plan, belief, or conclusion** — what you want audited
- **Your reasoning** — how you got there (reveals the assumptions)
- **What's at stake** — so we know how hard to test
- **What you're treating as certain** — the beliefs you're most confident in (often the riskiest)

## Framework: Surface, Rank, Flip, Test

1. **Extract the assumptions.** Read the reasoning and name every belief it depends on — especially the quiet ones stated as fact.
2. **Include the invisible ones.** Push for the assumptions so baked-in they're never questioned ("people will want this," "this will keep working," "I'll have the time").
3. **Rank by load.** Which assumptions, if false, barely change the conclusion? Which would collapse it? Focus on the load-bearing ones.
4. **Flip the critical ones.** For each high-load assumption, follow through what happens if it's actually wrong.
5. **Find the cheap check.** For the riskiest, name the fastest, lowest-cost way to test it before betting on it.

## Output Format

### Auditing: [the plan/belief]

**Assumptions it rests on**
| Assumption | Load-bearing? | If it's wrong… |
|---|---|---|
| [belief] | 🔴 collapses / 🟡 shifts / 🟢 minor | [consequence] |

**The riskiest one:** [the assumption most likely wrong AND most load-bearing].
**Cheapest way to check it:** [a fast, low-cost test].

## Quality Checks
- [ ] Assumptions are actually surfaced, including invisible ones
- [ ] Each is ranked by how load-bearing it is
- [ ] The critical assumptions are flipped to show consequences
- [ ] The riskiest (wrong × load-bearing) is identified
- [ ] A cheap, concrete check is proposed for it

## Anti-Patterns
- **Only listing obvious assumptions** and missing the buried ones.
- **Treating all assumptions as equally important.**
- **Naming risks without flipping** to see what breaking them does.
- **No cheap test** — leaving the person to just bet on it.

## Example Trigger Phrases
- "What am I assuming in this plan?"
- "Check my assumptions about this business idea."
- "Stress-test my thinking here — what if I'm wrong?"
- "I'm sure this will work — what am I not questioning?"
- "What hidden assumption could sink this?"