# Evidence and what it proves

Grade a claim by how directly the material supports it, not just by the prestige of the website hosting it.

## Match the source to the claim

| Material | What it can establish | What still needs separate evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Financial report and notes | Reported financial results and business disclosures for a specific period | Which undisclosed customer or new product caused the results |
| Official investor Q&A | What management stated on that date, including product stage | Independent customer confirmation, exclusivity, or an undisclosed revenue amount |
| Customer disclosure or contract | The relationship, scope and commitments actually named | Other products, customers or contract extensions |
| Patent or technical paper | A described invention, result or technical route | Commercial qualification, volume delivery, profitability |
| Project approval or capex plan | Approval or intended investment | Completed capacity, yield, utilization or firm customer demand |
| Product page or demonstration | Product positioning and claimed capability | Installed base, production volume or market share |
| Industry research or media | The underlying observations, estimates and assumptions disclosed | Facts not supported by its own sources |
| Social post | The author's published thesis or lead | Company facts, returns or supplier relationships asserted in it |

A report can contain both reported financial figures and management forecasts or commissioned market estimates. Identify which part you are using. Copying an estimate into an exchange filing does not turn it into an independently verified customer fact.

## Record only what supports the judgment

For each material claim, retain:

- the claim and relevant product/business scope;
- source title, publication date, clickable URL, and page or section;
- the fact disclosed, its reporting period, and your interpretation;
- what the source does not establish and what could contradict the claim.

Read the source before citing it. Use search snippets to locate documents, then verify the relevant passage. If you cannot retrieve it, mark the lead unverified and seek an accessible primary alternative.

Prefer the latest applicable disclosure, but keep older material when it establishes a change over time. Compare forecasts with later actual results. Keep consolidated and parent-only figures distinct, and distinguish year-on-year growth from balance-sheet changes since year-end. Use the source's reporting currency and units; identify restated comparatives and corporate actions when calculating changes or per-share values. Match price dates, share counts and earnings periods when calculating valuation; an unlabeled quote is not a verified closing price.

## Distinguish evidence confidence from research priority

- **Confirmed disclosure:** the opened material directly says the fact within the stated scope. Identify company statements as such when independent verification is absent.
- **Supported inference:** the observed facts support an interpretation, but do not state it directly. Explain the reasoning and the most relevant alternative.
- **Unverified lead:** important evidence is missing, inaccessible, or comes only from repetition or social discussion.
- **Contradicted claim:** an applicable source directly conflicts with the claim. Show the conflict and date.

A company may deserve further research while one of its popular narratives remains unverified. Conversely, a well-established business fact does not establish that the stock is attractively priced.

## Commercial-stage distinctions

Development, sampling, customer testing, qualification, volume production, orders, deliveries, and recognized revenue are related but distinct facts. Report the stage actually supported, without assuming an identical sequence for every business.

For example, a dated Q&A confirming volume delivery supports that statement. It does not establish a particular customer's name, sole-supplier status, or a separate revenue amount unless the source also provides those details. Missing public disclosure is not evidence that there are no sales.

When giving a final priority, expose the missing link that could change it. A list of sources is useful only when the reader can see which claim each one supports.