# pragma pylint: disable=W0105, C0103, C0114, C0115, C0116, C0301, C0302, C0303, C0325, C0411, C0413, W1203, W291 """ #################################################################################### TS_Predict - base class for 'simple' time series prediction Handles most of the logic for time series prediction. Subclasses should override the model-related functions Note that I use gain rather than price because it is a normalised value, and works better with prediction algorithms. I use the actual (future) gain to train a base model, which is then further refined for each individual pair. The model is created if it does not exist, and is trained on all available data before being saved. Models are saved in user_data/strategies/TSPredict/models//.sav, where is the name of the current class (TS_Predict if running this directly, or the name of the subclass). If the model already exits, then it is just loaded and used. So, it makes sense to do initial training over a long period of time to create the base model. If training, then no backtesting or tuning for individual pairs is performed (way faster). If you want to retrain (e.g. you changed indicators), then delete the model and run the strategy over a long time period #################################################################################### """ import copy import cProfile import os import pstats import sys import traceback from datetime import datetime from functools import reduce from pathlib import Path from typing import Optional import logging import warnings import joblib import numpy as np import pandas as pd import pywt from pandas import DataFrame, Series import talib.abstract as ta import finta import technical.indicators as ftt # from sklearn.ensemble import GradientBoostingRegressor from sklearn.preprocessing import RobustScaler from freqtrade import leverage import freqtrade.vendor.qtpylib.indicators as qtpylib from freqtrade.persistence import Trade # import freqtrade.vendor.qtpylib.indicators as qtpylib from freqtrade.strategy import CategoricalParameter, DecimalParameter, IStrategy # from lightgbm import LGBMRegressor # from sklearn.linear_model import PassiveAggressiveRegressor, SGDRegressor from xgboost import XGBRegressor group_dir = str(Path(__file__).parent) strat_dir = str(Path(__file__).parent.parent) sys.path.append(strat_dir) sys.path.append(group_dir) import utils.custom_indicators as cta import utils.Wavelets as Wavelets import utils.Forecasters as Forecasters from utils.DataframeUtils import DataframeUtils, ScalerType # pylint: disable=E0401 log = logging.getLogger(__name__) # log.setLevel(logging.DEBUG) warnings.simplefilter(action="ignore", category=pd.errors.PerformanceWarning) warnings.simplefilter(action="ignore", category=FutureWarning) warnings.simplefilter(action="ignore", category=UserWarning) pd.options.mode.chained_assignment = None # default='warn' class TSPredict(IStrategy): # Do *not* hyperopt for the roi and stoploss spaces plot_config = { "main_plot": { "close": {"color": "cornflowerblue"}, }, "subplots": { "Diff": { "predicted_gain": {"color": "rebeccapurple"}, "shifted_pred": {"color": "skyblue"}, "gain": {"color": "green"}, "target_profit": {"color": "lightgreen"}, "target_loss": {"color": "lightsalmon"}, "guard_metric": {"color": "orange"}, "bullish": {"color": "darkseagreen"}, "bearish": {"color": "darksalmon"}, "squeeze": {"color": "cornflowerblue"}, }, }, } # ROI table: minimal_roi = {"0": 0.04, "100": 0.02} # Stoploss: stoploss = -0.10 # Trailing stop: trailing_stop = False trailing_stop_positive = None trailing_stop_positive_offset = 0.0 trailing_only_offset_is_reached = False timeframe = "5m" inf_timeframe = "15m" use_custom_stoploss = True leverage = 1.0 can_short = False # if setting can-short to True, remember to update the config file: # "trading_mode": "futures", # "margin_mode": "isolated", # Recommended use_exit_signal = True exit_profit_only = False ignore_roi_if_entry_signal = True # Required startup_candle_count: int = 128 # must be power of 2 process_only_new_candles = True custom_trade_info = {} # pair-specific data curr_pair = "" ################################### # Strategy Specific Variable Storage ## Hyperopt Variables lookahead = 6 df_coeffs: DataFrame = None coeff_table = None coeff_array = None gain_data = None merge_indicators = True # set to False to not merge indicators into prediction data use_rolling = False # True = rolling (slow but realistic), False = Jumping (much faster, less realistic) single_col_prediction = False # True = use only gain. False = use all columns (better, but much slower) wavelet_type:Wavelets.WaveletType = Wavelets.WaveletType.MODWT wavelet = None forecaster_type:Forecasters.ForecasterType = Forecasters.ForecasterType.PA forecaster = None data = None wavelet_size = 32 # needed for consistently-sized transforms win_size = wavelet_size # this can vary train_min_len = wavelet_size # longer = slower train_len = wavelet_size * 4 # longer = slower # scale_len = wavelet_size // 2 # no. recent candles to use when scaling scale_len = min(8, wavelet_size//2) # no. recent candles to use when scaling win_size = wavelet_size model_window = wavelet_size # longer = slower profit_nstd = 2.6 loss_nstd = 2.6 training_data = None training_labels = None training_mode = False # do not set manually supports_incremental_training = True model_per_pair = False combine_models = True model_trained = False new_model = False norm_data = False # changing this requires new models detrend_data = False # retrain_period = 12 # number of candles before retrining retrain_period = 2 # for testing only! dataframeUtils = None scaler = RobustScaler() model = None base_forecaster = None curr_dataframe: DataFrame = None target_profit = 0.0 target_loss = 0.0 # hyperparams # Buy hyperspace params: buy_params = { "cexit_min_profit_th": 0.1, "cexit_profit_nstd": 0.6, "entry_bb_factor": 1.07, "entry_bb_width": 0.021, "entry_guard_metric": -0.2, "enable_entry_guards": True, # value loaded from strategy "entry_enable_squeeze": True, # value loaded from strategy } # Sell hyperspace params: sell_params = { "cexit_loss_nstd": 1.5, "cexit_metric_overbought": 0.67, "cexit_metric_take_profit": 0.56, "cexit_min_loss_th": -0.1, "exit_bb_factor": 0.71, "exit_enable_squeeze": False, "exit_guard_metric": 0.1, "enable_exit_guards": True, # value loaded from strategy "enable_exit_signal": True, # value loaded from strategy } # Entry enable_entry_guards = CategoricalParameter( [True, False], default=True, space="buy", load=True, optimize=False ) entry_guard_metric = DecimalParameter( -0.8, 0.0, default=-0.6, decimals=1, space="buy", load=True, optimize=True ) entry_enable_squeeze= CategoricalParameter( [True, False], default=True, space="buy", load=True, optimize=False ) entry_bb_width = DecimalParameter( 0.020, 0.100, default=0.04, decimals=3, space="buy", load=True, optimize=True ) entry_bb_factor = DecimalParameter( 0.70, 1.20, default=1.1, decimals=2, space="buy", load=True, optimize=True ) # Exit enable_exit_guards = CategoricalParameter( [True, False], default=True, space="sell", load=True, optimize=False ) exit_guard_metric = DecimalParameter( 0.0, 0.8, default=0.2, decimals=1, space="sell", load=True, optimize=True ) exit_bb_factor = DecimalParameter( 0.70, 1.20, default=0.8, decimals=2, space="sell", load=True, optimize=True ) # use exit signal? If disabled, just rely on the custom exit checks (or stoploss) to get out enable_exit_signal = CategoricalParameter( [True, False], default=True, space="sell", load=True, optimize=False ) exit_enable_squeeze= CategoricalParameter( [True, False], default=False, space="sell", load=True, optimize=True ) # Custom Exit # No. Standard Deviations of profit/loss for target, and lower limit cexit_min_profit_th = DecimalParameter(0.0, 2.0, default=0.7, decimals=1, space="buy", load=True, optimize=True) cexit_profit_nstd = DecimalParameter(0.0, 4.0, default=0.9, decimals=1, space="buy", load=True, optimize=True) cexit_min_loss_th = DecimalParameter(-2.0, -0.0, default=-0.4, decimals=1, space="sell", load=True, optimize=True) cexit_loss_nstd = DecimalParameter(0.0, 4.0, default=0.7, decimals=1, space="sell", load=True, optimize=True) # Guard metric sell limits - used to bail out when in profit cexit_metric_overbought = DecimalParameter( 0.55, 0.99, default=0.96, decimals=2, space="sell", load=True, optimize=True ) cexit_metric_take_profit = DecimalParameter( 0.55, 0.99, default=0.76, decimals=2, space="sell", load=True, optimize=True ) ################################### def bot_start(self, **kwargs) -> None: if self.dataframeUtils is None: self.dataframeUtils = DataframeUtils() self.dataframeUtils.set_scaler_type(ScalerType.Robust) if self.wavelet is None: self.wavelet = Wavelets.make_wavelet(self.wavelet_type) if self.forecaster is None: self.forecaster = Forecasters.make_forecaster(self.forecaster_type) self.forecaster.set_detrend(self.detrend_data) if (not self.forecaster.supports_multiple_columns()): print(' ****') print(f' **** ERROR: forecaster ({self.forecaster_type.name}) does not support multiple indicators') print(' ****') if (not self.forecaster.supports_retrain()): print(' ****') print(f' **** WARNING: forecaster ({self.forecaster_type.name}) does not support retrainings') print(' ****') return ################################### """ Informative Pair Definitions """ def informative_pairs(self): return [] ################################### # update saved data based on current pairlist def update_pairlist_data(self): # this only makes sense in 'live' modes if self.dp.runmode.value in ("backtest", "plot", "hyperopt"): return # current pairlist curr_pairlist = np.array(self.dp.current_whitelist()) # pairlist from previous calls saved_pairlist = np.array(list(self.custom_trade_info.keys())) # get the pairs that are no longer in the list removed_pairs = np.setdiff1d(saved_pairlist, curr_pairlist) added_pairs = np.setdiff1d(curr_pairlist, saved_pairlist) if (len(removed_pairs) > 0): print(" Pairlist changed:") print(f' old pairs: {saved_pairlist}') print(f' new pairs: {curr_pairlist}') print(f' pairs removed: {removed_pairs}') print(f' pairs added: {added_pairs}') for pair in removed_pairs: print(f' Removing historical data for: {pair}') del self.custom_trade_info[pair] ################################### """ Indicator Definitions """ def populate_indicators(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: # NOTE: if you change the indicators, you need to regenerate the model # Base pair dataframe timeframe indicators curr_pair = metadata["pair"] self.curr_dataframe = dataframe self.curr_pair = curr_pair self.update_pairlist_data() # The following are needed for base functions, so do not remove. # Add custom indicators to add_strategy_indicators() # backward looking gain dataframe["gain"] = ( 100.0 * (dataframe["close"] - dataframe["close"].shift(self.lookahead)) / dataframe["close"].shift(self.lookahead) ) dataframe["gain"].fillna(0.0, inplace=True) # dataframe["gain"] = self.smooth(dataframe["gain"], 8) # need to save the gain data for later scaling self.gain_data = dataframe["gain"].to_numpy().copy() # target profit/loss thresholds dataframe["profit"] = dataframe["gain"].clip(lower=0.0) dataframe["loss"] = dataframe["gain"].clip(upper=0.0) dataframe = self.update_gain_targets(dataframe) # Bollinger Bands bollinger = qtpylib.bollinger_bands(dataframe['close'], window=self.win_size, stds=2) dataframe['bb_lowerband'] = bollinger['lower'] dataframe['bb_middleband'] = bollinger['mid'] dataframe['bb_upperband'] = bollinger['upper'] dataframe['bb_width'] = ((dataframe['bb_upperband'] - dataframe['bb_lowerband']) / dataframe['bb_middleband']) dataframe["bb_gain"] = ((dataframe["bb_upperband"] - dataframe["close"]) / dataframe["close"]) dataframe["bb_loss"] = ((dataframe["bb_lowerband"] - dataframe["close"]) / dataframe["close"]) # RSI dataframe["rsi"] = ta.RSI(dataframe, timeperiod=self.win_size) ''' # Williams %R dataframe["wr"] = 0.02 * (self.williams_r(dataframe, period=self.win_size) + 50.0) # Fisher RSI rsi = 0.1 * (dataframe["rsi"] - 50) dataframe["fisher_rsi"] = (np.exp(2 * rsi) - 1) / (np.exp(2 * rsi) + 1) # Combined Fisher RSI and Williams %R dataframe["fisher_wr"] = (dataframe["wr"] + dataframe["fisher_rsi"]) / 2.0 ''' # init prediction column dataframe["predicted_gain"] = 0.0 # RMI: https://www.tradingview.com/script/kwIt9OgQ-Relative-Momentum-Index/ dataframe['rmi'] = cta.RMI(dataframe, length=self.win_size, mom=5) # scaled version for use as guard metric dataframe['srmi'] = 2.0 * (dataframe['rmi'] - 50.0) / 100.0 # guard metric must be in range [-1,+1], with -ve values indicating oversold and +ve values overbought dataframe['guard_metric'] = dataframe['srmi'] # Add strategy-specific indicators dataframe = self.add_strategy_indicators(dataframe) # create and init the model, if first time (dataframe has to be populated first) if self.model is None: # print(" Loading model") self.load_model(np.shape(dataframe)) # add the predictions # print(" Making predictions...") dataframe = self.add_predictions(dataframe) dataframe.fillna(0.0, inplace=True) # #DBG (cannot include this in 'real' strat because it's forward looking): # dataframe['dwt'] = self.get_dwt(dataframe['gain']) return dataframe def update_gain_targets(self, dataframe): # win_size = max(self.lookahead, 6) win_size = self.scale_len self.profit_nstd = float(self.cexit_profit_nstd.value) self.loss_nstd = float(self.cexit_loss_nstd.value) dataframe["target_profit"] = ( dataframe["profit"].rolling(window=win_size).mean() + self.profit_nstd * dataframe["profit"].rolling(window=win_size).std() ) dataframe["target_loss"] = dataframe["loss"].rolling(window=win_size).mean() - self.loss_nstd * abs( dataframe["loss"].rolling(window=win_size).std() ) dataframe["target_profit"] = dataframe["target_profit"].clip(lower=float(self.cexit_min_profit_th.value)) dataframe["target_loss"] = dataframe["target_loss"].clip(upper=float(self.cexit_min_loss_th.value)) dataframe["target_profit"] = np.nan_to_num(dataframe["target_profit"]) dataframe["target_loss"] = np.nan_to_num(dataframe["target_loss"]) dataframe["local_mean"] = dataframe["close"].rolling(window=win_size).mean() dataframe["local_min"] = dataframe["close"].rolling(window=win_size).min() dataframe["local_max"] = dataframe["close"].rolling(window=win_size).max() return dataframe ################################### def add_strategy_indicators(self, dataframe): # Override this function in subclasses and add extra indicators here return dataframe ################################### def smooth(self, y, window): box = np.ones(window) / window y_smooth = np.convolve(y, box, mode="same") # Hack: constrain to 3 decimal places (should be elsewhere, but convenient here) y_smooth = np.round(y_smooth, decimals=3) return np.nan_to_num(y_smooth) # look ahead to get future gain. Do *not* put this into the main dataframe! def get_future_gain(self, dataframe): df = self.convert_dataframe(dataframe) future_gain = df["gain"].shift(-self.lookahead).to_numpy() # future_gain = dataframe['gain'].shift(-self.lookahead).to_numpy() # return self.smooth(future_gain, 8) return future_gain ################################### # Williams %R def williams_r(self, dataframe: DataFrame, period: int = 14) -> Series: """ Williams %R, or just %R, is a technical analysis oscillator showing the current closing price in relation to the high and low of the past N days (for a given N). It was developed by a publisher and promoter of trading materials, Larry Williams. Its purpose is to tell whether a stock or commodity market is trading near the high or the low, or somewhere in between, of its recent trading range. The oscillator is on a negative scale, from −100 (lowest) up to 0 (highest). """ highest_high = dataframe["high"].rolling(center=False, window=period).max() lowest_low = dataframe["low"].rolling(center=False, window=period).min() WR = Series( (highest_high - dataframe["close"]) / (highest_high - lowest_low), name=f"{period} Williams %R", ) return WR * -100 ################################### # ------------- def convert_dataframe(self, dataframe: DataFrame) -> DataFrame: df = dataframe.copy() # convert date column so that it can be scaled. if "date" in df.columns: dates = pd.to_datetime(df["date"], utc=True) df["date"] = dates.astype("int64") df.fillna(0.0, inplace=True) df.set_index("date") df.reindex() # print(f' norm_data:{self.norm_data}') if self.norm_data: # scale the dataframe self.scaler.fit(df) df = pd.DataFrame(self.scaler.transform(df), columns=df.columns) return df ################################### # Model-related funcs. Override in subclass to use a different type of model def get_model_path(self, pair): category = self.__class__.__name__ root_dir = group_dir + "/models/" + category model_name = category if self.model_per_pair and (len(pair) > 0): model_name = model_name + "_" + pair.split("/")[0] path = root_dir + "/" + model_name + ".sav" return path def load_model(self, df_shape): model_path = self.get_model_path("") # load from file or create new model if os.path.exists(model_path): # use joblib to reload model state print(" loading from: ", model_path) self.model = joblib.load(model_path) self.model_trained = True self.new_model = False self.training_mode = False # set the model in the forecaster self.forecaster.set_model(self.model) else: self.model = self.forecaster.get_model() self.model_trained = False self.new_model = True self.training_mode = True # sklearn family of regressors sometimes support starting with an existing model (warm_start), # or incremental training (partial_fit()) if hasattr(self.model, "warm_start"): self.model.warm_start = True self.supports_incremental_training = True # override default if hasattr(self.model, "partial_fit"): self.supports_incremental_training = True # override default # if self.model is None: # print("*** ERR: model was not created properly ***") return # ------------- def save_model(self): # save trained model model_path = self.get_model_path("") # create directory if it doesn't already exist save_dir = os.path.dirname(model_path) if not os.path.exists(save_dir): os.makedirs(save_dir) # extract underlying model from forecaster model = self.forecaster.get_model() # use joblib to save model state print(" saving to: ", model_path) joblib.dump(model, model_path) return # ------------- # train the model. Override if not an sklearn-compatible algorithm # set save_model=False if you don't want to save the model (needed for ML algorithms) def train_model(self, forecaster:Forecasters.base_forecaster, data: np.array, results: np.array, save_model): if forecaster is None: print("*** ERR: no forecaster ***") return x = np.nan_to_num(data) y = np.nan_to_num(results) forecaster.train(x, y) # print(f' train_model() data:{np.shape(data)} results:{np.shape(results)}') return # ------------- # initial training of the model def init_model(self, dataframe: DataFrame): # if model is not yet trained, or this is a new model and we want to combine across pairs, then train if (not self.model_trained) or (self.new_model and self.combine_models): df = dataframe future_gain_data = self.get_future_gain(df) data = self.get_data(df) training_data = data[: -self.lookahead - 1].copy() training_labels = future_gain_data[: -self.lookahead - 1].copy() if not self.model_trained: print(f" initial training ({self.curr_pair})") else: print(f" incremental training ({self.curr_pair})") self.train_model(self.forecaster, training_data, training_labels, True) self.model_trained = True if self.new_model: self.save_model() # print(f' model_trained:{self.model_trained} new_model:{self.new_model} combine_models:{self.combine_models}') return # ------------- # set the data for this straegy. Override if necessary def get_data(self, dataframe): # default is to just normalise the dataframe and convert to numpy array self.curr_dataframe = dataframe self.data = np.array(self.convert_dataframe(dataframe)) return self.data # ------------- # generate predictions for an np array (intended to be overriden if needed) def predict_data(self, forecaster:Forecasters.base_forecaster, data): x = np.nan_to_num(data) preds = forecaster.forecast(x, self.lookahead) # print(f' data:{np.shape(data)} preds:{np.shape(preds)}') # de-norm scaler = RobustScaler() scaler.fit(self.gain_data.reshape(-1, 1)) denorm_preds = scaler.inverse_transform(preds.reshape(-1, 1)).squeeze() # denorm_preds = scaler.inverse_transform(preds.reshape(-1, 1)) denorm_preds = np.clip(denorm_preds, -3.0, 3.0) return denorm_preds # ------------- # single prediction (for use in rolling calculation) def predict(self, gain, dataframe) -> float: # Get the start and end index labels of the series start = gain.index[0] end = gain.index[-1] # Get the integer positions of the labels in the dataframe index start_row = dataframe.index.get_loc(start) end_row = dataframe.index.get_loc(end) + 1 # need to add the 1, don't know why! # if end_row < (self.wavelet_size + self.lookahead): if start_row < (self.wavelet_size + self.lookahead): # need buffer for training return 0.0 # train on previous data train_end = start_row - self.lookahead train_start = max(0, train_end-self.train_len) scale_start = max(0, end-self.scale_len) if (not self.training_mode) and (self.supports_incremental_training): train_data = self.training_data[train_start : start - 1].copy() train_results = self.training_labels[train_start : start - 1].copy() pair_forecaster = copy.deepcopy(self.forecaster) # reset to avoid over-training self.train_model(pair_forecaster, train_data, train_results, False) else: pair_forecaster = self.forecaster # predict for current window dslice = self.training_data[start:end].copy() self.gain_data = np.array(dataframe["gain"].iloc[scale_start:end]) # needed for scaling y_pred = self.predict_data(pair_forecaster, dslice) return y_pred[-1] # ------------- # alternate rolling prediction approach. The pandas rolling mechanism seems to have issues for some reason def rolling_predict(self, gain, window_size): win_size = window_size - 1 x = np.nan_to_num(np.array(gain)) preds = np.zeros(len(x), dtype=float) nrows = np.shape(self.training_data)[0] start = 0 end = start + win_size scale_start = max(0, end-self.scale_len) # train_end = max(0, start - 1) train_end = min(end - 1, nrows - self.lookahead - 1) train_start = max(0, train_end-self.train_len) # get the forecaster for this pair if self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]['forecaster'] is None: # make a deep copy so that we don't override the baseline model pair_forecaster = copy.deepcopy(self.forecaster) else: pair_forecaster = self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]['forecaster'] # loop through each row while end < len(x): if start < (self.wavelet_size + self.lookahead): # need buffer for training preds[end] = 0.0 else: # (re-)train the model on prior data and get predictions if (not self.training_mode) and (self.supports_incremental_training): train_data = self.training_data[train_start : train_end].copy() train_results = self.training_labels[train_start : train_end].copy() # pair_forecaster = copy.deepcopy(self.forecaster) # reset to avoid over-training self.train_model(pair_forecaster, train_data, train_results, False) # print(f' start:{start} end:{end} train_start:{train_start} train_end:{train_end}') # rebuild data up to end of current window dslice = self.training_data[start:end].copy() self.gain_data = x[scale_start:end] # needed for scaling forecast = self.predict_data(pair_forecaster, dslice) # print(f' forecast:{forecast}') preds[end] = forecast[-1] # move the window to the next segment end = end + 1 start = start + 1 # train_end = start - 1 train_end = min(end - 1, nrows - self.lookahead - 1) train_start = max(0, train_end-self.train_len) # save the updated/trained forecaster self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]['forecaster'] = pair_forecaster return preds #---------- # add predictions in a jumping fashion. This is a compromise - the rolling version is very slow # Note: you probably need to manually tune the parameters, since there is some limited lookahead here def add_jumping_predictions(self, dataframe: DataFrame) -> DataFrame: df = dataframe # roll through the close data and predict for each step nrows = np.shape(df)[0] # set up training data future_gain_data = self.get_future_gain(df) data = self.get_data(dataframe) self.training_data = data.copy() self.training_labels = np.zeros(np.shape(future_gain_data), dtype=float) self.training_labels = future_gain_data.copy() # initialise the prediction array, using the close data pred_array = np.zeros(np.shape(future_gain_data), dtype=float) win_size = self.model_window # loop until we get to/past the end of the buffer # start = win_size start = 0 end = start + win_size train_end = start - 1 train_size = self.train_len train_start = max(0, train_end - train_size) scale_start = max(0, end-self.scale_len) # get the forecaster for this pair if self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]['forecaster'] is None: # make a deep copy so that we don't override the baseline model pair_forecaster = copy.deepcopy(self.forecaster) else: pair_forecaster = self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]['forecaster'] # loop through the rows while end < nrows: # extract the data and coefficients from the current window # (re-)train the model on prior data and get predictions if (not self.training_mode) and (self.supports_incremental_training): train_data = self.training_data[train_start : start - 1].copy() train_results = self.training_labels[train_start : start - 1].copy() pair_forecaster = copy.deepcopy(self.forecaster) # reset to avoid over-training self.train_model(pair_forecaster, train_data, train_results, False) # print(f'train_data: {np.shape(train_data)}') # print(f'train_results: {np.shape(train_results)}') # rebuild data up to end of current window dslice = self.training_data[start:end].copy() self.gain_data = np.array(dataframe["gain"].iloc[scale_start:end]) # needed for scaling preds = self.predict_data(pair_forecaster, dslice) # print(f'dslice: {np.shape(dslice)}') # print(f'preds: {np.shape(preds)}') # copy the predictions for this window into the main predictions array pred_array[start:end] = preds.copy() # move the window to the next segment end = end + win_size start = start + win_size train_end = start - 1 train_start = max(0, train_end - train_size) # make sure the last section gets processed (the loop above may not exactly fit the data) # Note that we cannot use the last section for training because we don't have forward looking data # predict for last window dslice = self.training_data[-win_size:] # preds = self.forecaster.predict(dslice) slen = min(win_size, 32) self.gain_data = np.array(dataframe["gain"].iloc[-slen:]) # needed for scaling preds = self.predict_data(pair_forecaster, dslice) pred_array[-slen:] = preds.copy() dataframe["predicted_gain"] = pred_array.copy() # save the updated/trained forecaster self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]['forecaster'] = pair_forecaster return dataframe # ------------- def add_rolling_predictions(self, dataframe: DataFrame) -> DataFrame: try: # set up training data future_gain_data = self.get_future_gain(dataframe) data = self.get_data(dataframe) self.training_data = data.copy() self.training_labels = np.zeros(np.shape(future_gain_data), dtype=float) self.training_labels = future_gain_data.copy() # dataframe['predicted_gain'] = dataframe['gain'].rolling(window=self.model_window).apply(self.predict, args=(dataframe,)) dataframe['predicted_gain'] = self.rolling_predict(dataframe['gain'], self.model_window) # dataframe['predicted_gain'] = self.smooth(dataframe['predicted_gain'], 2) except Exception as e: print("*** Exception in add_rolling_predictions()") print(e) # prints the error message print(traceback.format_exc()) # prints the full traceback return dataframe # ------------- # add the latest prediction, and update training periodically def add_latest_prediction(self, dataframe: DataFrame) -> DataFrame: df = dataframe try: # set up training data # TODO: see if we can do this incrementally instead of rebuilding every time, or just use portion of data future_gain_data = self.get_future_gain(df) data = self.get_data(dataframe) plen = len(self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]["predictions"]) dlen = len(dataframe["gain"]) clen = min(plen, dlen) self.training_data = data[-clen:].copy() self.training_labels = future_gain_data[-clen:].copy() pred_array = np.zeros(clen, dtype=float) # print(f"[predictions]:{np.shape(self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]['predictions'])} pred_array:{np.shape(pred_array)}") # copy previous predictions and shift down by 1 pred_array[-clen:] = self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]["predictions"][-clen:].copy() pred_array = np.roll(pred_array, -1) pred_array[-1] = 0.0 # train on previous data # train_end = clen - self.model_window - self.lookahead train_end = np.shape(self.training_data)[0] - self.lookahead - 1 train_start = max(0, train_end-self.train_len) # cannot use last portion because we are looking ahead tslice = self.training_data[train_start:train_end] lslice = self.training_labels[train_start:train_end] # get the forecaster for this pair if self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]['forecaster'] is None: # make a deep copy so that we don't override the baseline model pair_forecaster = copy.deepcopy(self.forecaster) else: pair_forecaster = self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]['forecaster'] # update forecaster and get predictions self.train_model(pair_forecaster, tslice, lslice, False) slen = min(clen, self.scale_len) self.gain_data = np.array(dataframe["gain"].iloc[-slen:]) # needed for scaling preds = self.predict_data(pair_forecaster, self.training_data[-self.model_window:]) # self.forecaster = copy.deepcopy(base_forecaster) # restore original model # only replace last prediction (i.e. don't overwrite the historical predictions) pred_array[-1] = preds[-1] dataframe["predicted_gain"] = 0.0 dataframe["predicted_gain"][-clen:] = pred_array[-clen:].copy() self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]["predictions"][-clen:] = pred_array[-clen:].copy() # save the updated/trained forecaster self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]['forecaster'] = pair_forecaster '''''' # Debug: print info if in buy or sell region (nothing otherwise) pg = preds[-1] if pg <= dataframe['target_loss'].iloc[-1]: print(f' (v) predict {pg:6.2f}% loss for: {self.curr_pair}') elif pg >= dataframe['target_profit'].iloc[-1]: print(f' ^ predict {pg:6.2f}% profit for: {self.curr_pair}') '''''' except Exception as e: print("*** Exception in add_latest_prediction()") print(e) # prints the error message print(traceback.format_exc()) # prints the full traceback return dataframe # ------------- # add predictions to dataframe['predicted_gain'] def add_predictions(self, dataframe: DataFrame) -> DataFrame: # print(f" {self.curr_pair} adding predictions") run_profiler = False if run_profiler: prof = cProfile.Profile() prof.enable() self.scaler = RobustScaler() # reset scaler each time self.init_model(dataframe) if self.curr_pair not in self.custom_trade_info: self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair] = { 'forecaster': copy.deepcopy(self.forecaster), "initialised": False, "predictions": None, "curr_prediction": 0.0, "curr_target": 0.0, } if self.training_mode: print(f" Training mode. Skipping backtest for {self.curr_pair}") dataframe["predicted_gain"] = 0.0 else: if not self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]["initialised"]: print(f" backtesting {self.curr_pair}") if self.use_rolling: dataframe = self.add_rolling_predictions(dataframe) else: dataframe = self.add_jumping_predictions(dataframe) self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]["initialised"] = True self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]["predictions"] = dataframe["predicted_gain"].copy() else: # print(f' updating latest prediction for: {self.curr_pair}') dataframe = self.add_latest_prediction(dataframe) # save latest prediction and threshold for later use (where dataframe is not available) self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]["curr_prediction"] = dataframe["predicted_gain"].iloc[-1] self.custom_trade_info[self.curr_pair]["curr_target"] = dataframe["target_profit"].iloc[-1] # predictions can spike, so constrain range dataframe["predicted_gain"] = dataframe["predicted_gain"].clip(lower=-3.0, upper=3.0) # ad shifted version, for debug only dataframe['shifted_pred'] = dataframe['predicted_gain'].shift(self.lookahead) if run_profiler: prof.disable() # print profiling output stats = pstats.Stats(prof).strip_dirs().sort_stats("cumtime") stats.print_stats(20) # top 20 rows return dataframe ################################### """ entry Signal """ def populate_entry_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: conditions = [] dataframe.loc[:, "enter_tag"] = "" if self.training_mode: dataframe["enter_long"] = 0 return dataframe # update gain targets here so that we can use hyperopt parameters dataframe = self.update_gain_targets(dataframe) # Bollinger band-based bull/bear indicators: # Done here so that we can use hyperopt to find values lower_limit = dataframe['bb_middleband'] - \ self.exit_bb_factor.value * (dataframe['bb_middleband'] - dataframe['bb_lowerband']) dataframe['bullish'] = np.where( (dataframe['close'] <= lower_limit) , 1, 0) dataframe['squeeze'] = np.where( (dataframe['bb_width'] >= self.entry_bb_width.value) , 1, 0) if self.enable_entry_guards.value: # some trading volume (otherwise expect spread problems) conditions.append(dataframe["volume"] > 1.0) # Guard metric in oversold region conditions.append(dataframe["guard_metric"] < self.entry_guard_metric.value) # in lower portion of previous window # conditions.append(dataframe["close"] < dataframe["local_mean"]) # bullish region conditions.append(dataframe["bullish"] > 0) # # not bearish (looser than bullish) # conditions.append(dataframe["bearish"] >= 0) # wide Bollinger Bands if self.entry_enable_squeeze.value: conditions.append(dataframe['squeeze'] > 0) # model triggers model_cond = ( # prediction crossed target qtpylib.crossed_above(dataframe["predicted_gain"], dataframe["target_profit"]) | ( # add this version if volume checks are enabled, because we might miss the crossing otherwise (dataframe["predicted_gain"] > dataframe["target_profit"]) & (dataframe["predicted_gain"].shift() > dataframe["target_profit"].shift()) ) ) else: # model triggers model_cond = ( # prediction crossed target qtpylib.crossed_above(dataframe["predicted_gain"], dataframe["target_profit"]) ) # conditions.append(metric_cond) conditions.append(model_cond) # set entry tags dataframe.loc[model_cond, "enter_tag"] += "model_entry " if conditions: dataframe.loc[reduce(lambda x, y: x & y, conditions), "enter_long"] = 1 return dataframe ################################### """ exit Signal """ def populate_exit_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: conditions = [] dataframe.loc[:, "exit_tag"] = "" if self.training_mode or (not self.enable_exit_signal.value): dataframe["exit_long"] = 0 return dataframe # Bollinger band-based bull/bear indicators: # Done here so that we can use hyperopt to find values upper_limit = dataframe['bb_middleband'] + \ self.entry_bb_factor.value * (dataframe['bb_upperband'] - dataframe['bb_middleband']) dataframe['bearish'] = np.where( (dataframe['close'] >= upper_limit) , -1, 0) if not ('squeeze' in dataframe.columns): dataframe['squeeze'] = np.where( (dataframe['bb_width'] >= self.entry_bb_width.value) , 1, 0) if self.enable_exit_guards.value: # some trading volume (otherwise expect spread problems) conditions.append(dataframe["volume"] > 0) # Guard metric in overbought region conditions.append(dataframe["guard_metric"] > self.exit_guard_metric.value) # in upper portion of previous window # conditions.append(dataframe["close"] > dataframe["local_mean"]) # bearish region conditions.append(dataframe["bearish"] < 0) # wide Bollinger Bands if self.exit_enable_squeeze.value: conditions.append(dataframe['squeeze'] > 0) # # not bullish (looser than bearish) # conditions.append(dataframe["bullish"] <= 0) # model triggers model_cond = ( # prediction crossed target qtpylib.crossed_below(dataframe["predicted_gain"], dataframe["target_loss"]) | ( # add this if volume checks are enabled, because we might miss the crossing otherwise (dataframe["predicted_gain"] < dataframe["target_loss"]) & (dataframe["predicted_gain"].shift() < dataframe["target_loss"].shift()) ) ) else: # model triggers model_cond = ( # prediction crossed target qtpylib.crossed_below(dataframe["predicted_gain"], dataframe["target_loss"]) ) conditions.append(model_cond) # set exit tags dataframe.loc[model_cond, "exit_tag"] += "model_exit " if conditions: dataframe.loc[reduce(lambda x, y: x & y, conditions), "exit_long"] = 1 return dataframe ################################### def confirm_trade_entry( self, pair: str, order_type: str, amount: float, rate: float, time_in_force: str, current_time: datetime, entry_tag: Optional[str], side: str, **kwargs, ) -> bool: # this only makes sense in 'live' modes if self.dp.runmode.value in ("backtest", "plot", "hyperopt"): return True # in 'real' systems, there is often a delay between the signal and the trade # double-check that predicted gain is still above threshold if pair in self.custom_trade_info: curr_pred = self.custom_trade_info[pair]["curr_prediction"] # check latest prediction against latest target curr_target = self.custom_trade_info[pair]["curr_target"] if curr_pred < curr_target: if self.dp.runmode.value not in ("backtest", "plot", "hyperopt"): print("") print( f" *** {pair} Trade cancelled. Prediction ({curr_pred:.2f}%) below target ({curr_target:.2f}%) " ) print("") return False # just debug if self.dp.runmode.value not in ("backtest", "plot", "hyperopt"): print("") print(f" Trade Entry: {pair}, rate: {rate:.4f} Predicted gain: {curr_pred:.2f}% Target: {curr_target:.2f}%") print("") return True def confirm_trade_exit( self, pair: str, trade: Trade, order_type: str, amount: float, rate: float, time_in_force: str, exit_reason: str, current_time: datetime, **kwargs, ) -> bool: if self.dp.runmode.value not in ("backtest", "plot", "hyperopt"): print("") print(f" Trade Exit: {pair}, rate: {rate:.4f)}") print("") return True ################################### """ Custom Stoploss """ # simplified version of custom trailing stoploss def custom_stoploss( self, pair: str, trade: Trade, current_time: datetime, current_rate: float, current_profit: float, after_fill: bool, **kwargs, ) -> float: # this is just here so that we can use custom_exit # return min(-0.001, max(stoploss_from_open(0.05, current_profit), -0.99)) return self.stoploss ################################### """ Custom Exit (Note that this runs even if use_custom_stoploss is False) """ # simplified version of custom exit def custom_exit(self, pair: str, trade: Trade, current_time: "datetime", current_rate: float, current_profit: float, **kwargs): dataframe, _ = self.dp.get_analyzed_dataframe(pair=pair, timeframe=self.timeframe) last_candle = dataframe.iloc[-1].squeeze() if not self.use_custom_stoploss: return None # check volume?! if last_candle['volume'] <= 1.0: return None if trade.is_short: print(" short trades not yet supported in custom_exit()") else: # print(" checking long trade") # strong sell signal, in profit if (current_profit > 0.0) and (last_candle["guard_metric"] >= self.cexit_metric_overbought.value): return "metric_overbought" # Above 0.5%, sell if Fisher/Williams in sell range if current_profit > 0.005: if last_candle["guard_metric"] >= self.cexit_metric_take_profit.value: return "take_profit" # big drop predicted. Should also trigger an exit signal, but this might be quicker (and will likely be 'market' sell) if (current_profit > 0) and (last_candle["predicted_gain"] <= last_candle["target_loss"]): return "predict_drop" # if in profit and exit signal is set, sell (even if exit signals are disabled) if (current_profit > 0) and (last_candle["exit_long"] > 0): return "exit_signal" # The following apply to both long & short trades: # Sell any positions if open for >= 1 day with any level of profit if ((current_time - trade.open_date_utc).days >= 1) & (current_profit > 0): return "unclog_1" # Sell any positions at a loss if they are held for more than 7 days. if (current_time - trade.open_date_utc).days >= 7: return "unclog_7" return None