@unpublished{tran_fomc_topicshares,
  author = {Paul L. Tran},
  year = {2026},
  title = {Does the Topic Mix of Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Market Expectations?},
  opturl = {https://paulletran.com/papers/wps/tran_paul_le_fomc_topicshares_paper_wp.pdf},
  note = {},
  abstract = {\textit{Abstract}: This paper finds that the thematic composition of FOMC post-meeting statements affects market expectations of future monetary policy. I quantify changes in communication bandwidth across topics using large-language-model probabilistic topic classification. Using an event-study approach, I find that increased discussion of monetary policy tools (economic conditions) is associated with an increase (decrease) in the variation of monetary policy surprises. These signals remain significant after controlling for policy actions and semantic novelty. Including both textual measures improves explanatory power by 30\% relative to the policy action alone. These results show that the FOMC strategically reallocates its announcement narrative to manage expectations.}
}