---
name: muddy-waters-forensic
description: "Use when evaluating Muddy Waters-style forensic short research: fraud, channel checks, related-party structures, cash verification, governance failure, and evidence-based short theses."
invest: ./invest.md
---

# Muddy Waters Forensic Short

Use this skill to apply Muddy Waters / Carson Block-style judgment.

## When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

- forensic short report
- fraud or channel-stuffing suspicion
- related-party complexity
- cash/revenue verification
- China/overseas complex structure short

Trigger phrases include `Muddy Waters`, `Carson Block`, `forensic short`, `channel check`, `related party`, `fraud short`, `cash verification`.

## Do Not Use When

- Another investor skill fits the setup better.
- Critical primary evidence is unavailable.
- The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded risk.
- The request is generic chatter with no decision.

## Inputs Needed

- Company, startup, token, report target, or market context
- Primary documents, product data, user/revenue evidence, or research materials
- Time horizon, capital structure, and risk constraints
- Valuation or round pricing if sizing/commitment is requested

## Process

1. Map the market's trusted management story.
2. Identify the specific alleged false mechanism.
3. Gather primary evidence: filings, channel checks, related parties, cash trail.
4. Define catalyst, short structure, squeeze/time risk, and invalidation.

## Output Format

```md
# Muddy Waters Forensic Short View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Short / Watch / Evidence Incomplete / Structure Risk Too High / Pass

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data
```

## Guardrails

- Do not force conviction without evidence.
- Do not ignore incentives, structure, or liquidity/risk constraints.
- Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
- Do not present this as financial advice.

## Questflow Use

In Questflow, this skill is best used as a specialized judgment module for research workflows, Fund theses, diligence, monitoring, and decision support.