---
name: shihanbing-macro-interest-analysis
description: "Use when evaluating macro trends through Shi Hanbing's interest-analysis (利益分析法) lens: trace who benefits from what policy, follow the money, and predict macro direction from incentive structures."
invest: ./invest.md
---

# Shi Hanbing Macro Interest Analysis

Use this skill to apply Shi Hanbing / 时寒冰-style judgment.

## When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

- macro interest analysis
- policy prediction from incentives
- Shi Hanbing-style trend analysis
- macro regime identification for A-shares

Trigger phrases include `时寒冰`, `Shi Hanbing`, `利益分析法`, `macro trend A股`, `policy incentive`, `趋势分析`.

## Do Not Use When

- Another skill fits better.
- Critical data for this model is missing.
- The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
- The request is generic chatter with no decision.

## Inputs Needed

- Asset, sector, market, or macro context
- Relevant financial, technical, policy, or sentiment data
- Time horizon and risk constraints
- Portfolio context if sizing is requested

## Process

1. Map the interest structure: who benefits, who pays, who decides.
2. Predict policy direction from incentive alignment.
3. Check if macro data/price confirms the interest-based prediction.
4. Position for the trend; stand aside if interests conflict without resolution.

## Output Format

```md
# Shi Hanbing Macro Interest Analysis View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Risk-On Trend / Neutral / Risk-Off / Conflicting Interests / Pass

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data
```

## Guardrails

- Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
- Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
- Define invalidation before sizing.
- Not financial advice.

## Questflow Use

Use as a judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.