---
name: soros-reflexivity
description: "Use when evaluating macro dislocations, reflexive feedback loops, policy shifts, positioning squeezes, and asymmetric bets in a George Soros style."
invest: ./invest.md
---

# Soros Reflexivity

Use this skill to apply George Soros-style reflexivity: identify where participant beliefs and market prices reinforce each other, test whether the feedback loop is unstable, and structure asymmetric macro trades with explicit invalidation.

## When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

- Macro dislocation analysis
- Reflexive boom/bust dynamics
- Currency, rates, credit, equity index, or commodity regime shifts
- Crowded positioning and squeeze risk
- Asymmetric trade structuring

Trigger phrases include `Soros`, `reflexivity`, `macro dislocation`, `feedback loop`, `boom bust`, `asymmetric`, `policy shift`, and `positioning`.

## Do Not Use When

- The opportunity has no identifiable feedback loop.
- The trade cannot be expressed with clear invalidation.
- Liquidity is too poor to exit.
- The user wants passive long-term ownership analysis.

## Inputs Needed

- Market or macro theme
- Price trend, positioning, consensus narrative, and policy backdrop
- Key economic or liquidity data
- Catalyst path and time horizon
- Trade expression, stop level, and risk budget if available

## Process

1. Define the prevailing belief and the underlying reality.
2. Identify the feedback loop between prices, fundamentals, behavior, and policy.
3. Decide whether the loop is self-reinforcing, self-correcting, or breaking.
4. Test asymmetry: downside if wrong vs upside if the reflexive process accelerates.
5. Start with a probe if uncertain, add only when the market confirms.
6. Define invalidation and exit before sizing up.

## Output Format

```md
# Soros Reflexivity View: [Theme]

## Verdict
Probe / Press / Hold / Exit / Pass

## Prevailing Bias

## Reflexive Loop

## Asymmetry

## Trade Expression

## Invalidation

## What Would Make The Thesis Accelerate

## Missing Data
```

## Guardrails

- Do not call every trend reflexive.
- Do not size big before the market confirms.
- Do not hold after the thesis stops working.
- Do not ignore policy response.
- Do not confuse being contrarian with being right.

## Questflow Use

In Questflow, this skill is best used as a macro judgment module that monitors narratives, positioning, policy, cross-asset confirmation, and asymmetric risk windows.