--- name: tepper-distressed-macro description: "Use when evaluating David Tepper-style distressed macro opportunities: crisis assets, policy backstops, capital structure, bank/credit stress, and asymmetric recovery trades." invest: ./invest.md --- # Tepper Distressed Macro Use this skill to apply David Tepper-style distressed macro judgment: buy when panic prices in disaster, policy backstops improve survival odds, and the capital structure offers asymmetric recovery. ## When To Use - Crisis and post-crisis bank/credit analysis - Distressed debt or equity recovery trades - Policy backstop and bailout analysis - Capital-structure asymmetry review Trigger phrases include `Tepper`, `distressed`, `bank stress`, `policy backstop`, `bailout`, `credit panic`, and `recovery trade`. ## Process 1. Identify panic, forced selling, and capital-structure stress. 2. Map seniority: debt, preferred, common, convertibles. 3. Assess survival odds under policy response and liquidity support. 4. Compare price to recovery value. 5. Size around downside if rescue fails. ## Output Format ```md # Tepper View: [Asset] ## Verdict Aggressive Buy / Probe / Wait / Avoid / Short ## Panic Source ## Capital Structure ## Policy Backstop ## Recovery Value ## Downside If Wrong ## Catalyst ``` ## Guardrails - Do not buy distressed equity when the fulcrum security is debt. - Do not assume government support protects common shareholders. - Do not ignore dilution and restructuring terms. ## Questflow Use In Questflow, this skill is best used for crisis, bank, credit, and policy-backstop trade reviews.