Rana Coskun The base rate fallacy is a cognitive error whereby people incorrectly judge the likelihood of an event due to ignoring or underestimating the base rate (i.e., the overall rate at which an event occurs) and overemphasizing specific information. This fallacy can occur in various contexts, such as assessing risks, making medical diagnoses, and evaluating probabilities in legal and everyday situations. Base Rate Fallacy http://ontologydesignpatterns.org/wiki/Submissions:Experience_%26_Observation http://ontologydesignpatterns.org/wiki/Submissions:Parameter A Concept can have a Parameter that constrains the attributes that a classified Entity can have in a certain Situation http://ontologydesignpatterns.org/cp/owl/parameter.owl hasParameter inverse of inActivity https://modellingdh.github.io/ont/odp/term/ hasEngagement what activity/ies are affecting or affected by a certain engagement https://modellingdh.github.io/ont/odp/term/ inActivity A relation of mereological nature that connects a given observation with the activity that originates them: it strengthens the argument that observations are always active processes from a cognitive standpoint, regardless of how conscious they may be. A standard mereological property from another content pattern may be used in lieu of this one and therefore aligned with it. https://modellingdh.github.io/ont/odp/term/ includes Because an activity may engage other participants than the one performing it, engagements are in general considered individual rather than collective, therefore each participants has their own engagement and only some of them will be conscious and/or documented. https://modellingdh.github.io/ont/odp/term/ isEngagedIn Inverse of isReflectionOf https://modellingdh.github.io/ont/odp/term/ isReflectedUponIn Used to connect the subjective elements of an experience with the corresponding observation, which is extrapolated from the content being interacted with and in itself may not be including a critique. https://modellingdh.github.io/ont/odp/term/ isReflectionOn This property can be used to denote that something is (even indirectly, not necessary through direct reflection) responsible for the existence of an observation https://modellingdh.github.io/ont/odp/term/ producesObservation Links a decision-making activity to the information from which it is derived or based. https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ranacoskun/cognitive_bias_ontology/main/BaseRateFallacy/baseratefallacy.owl#isBasedOn isBasedOn inverse of isAffectedBy https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ranacoskun/cognitive_bias_ontology/main/cbi.owl#affects affects Describes the relationship between a cognitive bias and an individual on the base of influence. https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ranacoskun/cognitive_bias_ontology/main/cbi.owl#isAffectedBy isAffectedBy Parametrizes values from a datatype http://ontologydesignpatterns.org/cp/owl/parameter.owl hasParameterDataValue The product of an act of scrutiny which may or may not have been performed with a critical disposition https://modellingdh.github.io/ont/odp/term/ Observation Base rate refers to the parameter that Base Rate Information has https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ranacoskun/cognitive_bias_ontology/main/BaseRateFallacy/baseratefallacy.owl#BaseRate BaseRate Base rate information refers to the type of information that is the percentage of a population that has a specific characteristic https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ranacoskun/cognitive_bias_ontology/main/BaseRateFallacy/baseratefallacy.owl#BaseRateInformation BaseRateInformation Specific information refers to the type of information that is case-specific https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ranacoskun/cognitive_bias_ontology/main/BaseRateFallacy/baseratefallacy.owl#SpecificInformation SpecificInformation The base rate fallacy illustrates how neglecting the overall context or base rate information can lead to inaccurate perceptions and decisions. https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ranacoskun/cognitive_bias_ontology/main/cbi.owl#BaseRateFallacy BaseRateFallacy Represents an entity that experiences the bias. https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ranacoskun/cognitive_bias_ontology/main/cbi.owl#BiasedAgent BiasedAgent Represents the overarching concept of cognitive biases. https://raw.githubusercontent.com/ranacoskun/cognitive_bias_ontology/main/cbi.owl#CognitiveBias CognitiveBias An Assessor examines a Phenomenon to figure out its Value according to some Feature of the Phenomenon. This Value is a factor in determining the acceptability of the Phenomenon. https://w3id.org/framester/data/framestercore/Assessing Assessing A Cognizer makes a Decision, which may be about an entity or a course of action. https://w3id.org/framester/data/framestercore/Deciding Deciding A Cognizer knows or comes to know some piece of Information about a Topic. In this frame, many LUs encode a specific Means_of_Gathering and/or Source, but these may also be expressed separately https://w3id.org/framester/data/framestercore/Information Information Denotes a human being and express that we are talking about human cognitive biases. https://w3id.org/framester/data/framestercore/People People Information regarding the prevalence of a specific disease within a population proving that the result might be a false positive, used as a base rate for evaluation purposes. Disease Base Rate Information A physician involved in the assessment of disease likelihood, potentially affected by cognitive biases such as the base rate fallacy Dr Lee The process of determining the probability that a patient has a specific disease based true positive observation. Evaluating Likelihood Of Disease General information about a disease, which includes statistical data and base rates pertinent to its occurrence in a population. Information Regarding Disease The decision-making process involved in diagnosing a patient, which considers both base rate information and specific case details. Making Diagnosis 0.002 Rate of disease within the population Rate The information regarding that test result is positive and highly accurate, with a 99% chance of a positive result if you have the disease. Test Result The observation that the test is a true positive based on the test result (specific information), often reflecting on the evaluation of the disease likelihood. True Positive Observation