Base Rate Fallacy
type: Ontology
creator: Rana Coskun
comment: The base rate fallacy is a cognitive error whereby people incorrectly judge the likelihood of an event due to ignoring or underestimating the base rate (i.e., the overall rate at which an event occurs) and overemphasizing specific information. This fallacy can occur in various contexts, such as assessing risks, making medical diagnoses, and evaluating probabilities in legal and everyday situations.

hasParameter
type: ObjectProperty
domain: BaseRateInformation
range: BaseRate
comment: A Concept can have a Parameter that constrains the attributes that a classified Entity can have in a certain Situation

hasEngagement
type: ObjectProperty
inverse of: inActivity
comment: inverse of inActivity

inActivity
type: ObjectProperty
domain: Assessing
range: Deciding
comment: what activity/ies are affecting or affected by a certain engagement

includes
type: ObjectProperty
domain: Deciding
range: Observation
comment: A relation of mereological nature that connects a given observation with the activity that originates them: it strengthens the argument that observations are always active processes from a cognitive standpoint, regardless of how conscious they may be. A standard mereological property from another content pattern may be used in lieu of this one and therefore aligned with it.

isEngagedIn
type: ObjectProperty
domain: BiasedAgent
range: Assessing
comment: Because an activity may engage other participants than the one performing it, engagements are in general considered individual rather than collective, therefore each participants has their own engagement and only some of them will be conscious and/or documented.

isReflectedUponIn
type: ObjectProperty
inverse of: isReflectionOn
comment: Inverse of isReflectionOf

isReflectionOn
type: ObjectProperty
domain: Observation
range: Assessing
comment: Used to connect the subjective elements of an experience with the corresponding observation, which is extrapolated from the content being interacted with and in itself may not be including a critique.

producesObservation
type: ObjectProperty
domain: SpecificInformation
range: Observation
comment: This property can be used to denote that something is (even indirectly, not necessary through direct reflection) responsible for the existence of an observation

isBasedOn
type: ObjectProperty
domain: Deciding
range: Information
comment: Links a decision-making activity to the information from which it is derived or based.

affects
type: ObjectProperty
inverse of: isAffectedBy
comment: inverse of isAffectedBy

isAffectedBy
type: ObjectProperty
domain: BiasedAgent
range: BaseRateFallacy
comment: Describes the relationship between a cognitive bias and an individual on the base of influence.

hasParameterDataValue
type: DatatypeProperty
domain: BaseRate
range: float
comment: Parametrizes values from a datatype

Observation
type: Class
comment: The product of an act of scrutiny which may or may not have been performed with a critical disposition

BaseRate
type: Class
comment: Base rate refers to the parameter that Base Rate Information has

BaseRateInformation
type: Class
subclass of: Information
disjoint with: SpecificInformation
comment: Base rate information refers to the type of information that is the percentage of a population that has a specific characteristic

SpecificInformation
type: Class
subclass of: Information
comment: Specific information refers to the type of information that is case-specific

BaseRateFallacy
type: Class
subclass of: CognitiveBias
comment: The base rate fallacy illustrates how neglecting the overall context or base rate information can lead to inaccurate perceptions and decisions.

BiasedAgent
type: Class
subclass of: People
comment: Represents an entity that experiences the bias.

CognitiveBias
type: Class
comment: Represents the overarching concept of cognitive biases.

Assessing
type: Class
comment: An Assessor examines a Phenomenon to figure out its Value according to some Feature of the Phenomenon. This Value is a factor in determining the acceptability of the Phenomenon.

Deciding
type: Class
comment: A Cognizer makes a Decision, which may be about an entity or a course of action.

Information
type: Class
comment: A Cognizer knows or comes to know some piece of Information about a Topic. In this frame, many LUs encode a specific Means_of_Gathering and/or Source, but these may also be expressed separately

People
type: Class
comment: Denotes a human being and express that we are talking about human cognitive biases.

Disease Base Rate Information
type: NamedIndividual
type: BaseRateInformation
hasParameter: Rate
comment: Information regarding the prevalence of a specific disease within a population proving that the result might be a false positive, used as a base rate for evaluation purposes.

Dr Lee
type: NamedIndividual
type: BiasedAgent
isEngagedIn: Evaluating Likelihood Of Disease
comment: A physician involved in the assessment of disease likelihood, potentially affected by cognitive biases such as the base rate fallacy

Evaluating Likelihood Of Disease
type: NamedIndividual
type: Assessing
inActivity: Making Diagnosis
isReflectedUponIn: True Positive Observation
comment: The process of determining the probability that a patient has a specific disease based true positive observation.

Information Regarding Disease
type: NamedIndividual
type: Information
comment: General information about a disease, which includes statistical data and base rates pertinent to its occurrence in a population.

Making Diagnosis
type: NamedIndividual
type: Deciding
hasEngagement: Evaluating Likelihood Of Disease
includes: True Positive Observation
isBasedOn: Information Regarding Disease
comment: The decision-making process involved in diagnosing a patient, which considers both base rate information and specific case details.

Rate
type: NamedIndividual
type: BaseRate
hasParameterDataValue: 0.002
comment: Rate of disease within the population

Test Result
type: NamedIndividual
type: SpecificInformation
producesObservation: True Positive Observation
comment: The information regarding that test result is positive and highly accurate, with a 99% chance of a positive result if you have the disease.

True Positive Observation
type: NamedIndividual
type: Observation
isReflectionOn: Evaluating Likelihood Of Disease
comment: The observation that the test is a true positive based on the test result (specific information), often reflecting on the evaluation of the disease likelihood.