Rana Coskun
The base rate fallacy is a cognitive error whereby people incorrectly judge the likelihood of an event due to ignoring or underestimating the base rate (i.e., the overall rate at which an event occurs) and overemphasizing specific information. This fallacy can occur in various contexts, such as assessing risks, making medical diagnoses, and evaluating probabilities in legal and everyday situations.
Base Rate Fallacy
A Concept can have a Parameter that constrains the attributes that a classified Entity can have in a certain Situation
hasParameter
inverse of inActivity
hasEngagement
what activity/ies are affecting or affected by a certain engagement
inActivity
A relation of mereological nature that connects a given observation with the activity that originates them: it strengthens the argument that observations are always active processes from a cognitive standpoint, regardless of how conscious they may be. A standard mereological property from another content pattern may be used in lieu of this one and therefore aligned with it.
includes
Because an activity may engage other participants than the one performing it, engagements are in general considered individual rather than collective, therefore each participants has their own engagement and only some of them will be conscious and/or documented.
isEngagedIn
Inverse of isReflectionOf
isReflectedUponIn
Used to connect the subjective elements of an experience with the corresponding observation, which is extrapolated from the content being interacted with and in itself may not be including a critique.
isReflectionOn
This property can be used to denote that something is (even indirectly, not necessary through direct reflection) responsible for the existence of an observation
producesObservation
Links a decision-making activity to the information from which it is derived or based.
isBasedOn
inverse of isAffectedBy
affects
Describes the relationship between a cognitive bias and an individual on the base of influence.
isAffectedBy
Parametrizes values from a datatype
hasParameterDataValue
The product of an act of scrutiny which may or may not have been performed with a critical disposition
Observation
Base rate refers to the parameter that Base Rate Information has
BaseRate
Base rate information refers to the type of information that is the percentage of a population that has a specific characteristic
BaseRateInformation
Specific information refers to the type of information that is case-specific
SpecificInformation
The base rate fallacy illustrates how neglecting the overall context or base rate information can lead to inaccurate perceptions and decisions.
BaseRateFallacy
Represents an entity that experiences the bias.
BiasedAgent
Represents the overarching concept of cognitive biases.
CognitiveBias
An Assessor examines a Phenomenon to figure out its Value according to some Feature of the Phenomenon. This Value is a factor in determining the acceptability of the Phenomenon.
Assessing
A Cognizer makes a Decision, which may be about an entity or a course of action.
Deciding
A Cognizer knows or comes to know some piece of Information about a Topic. In this frame, many LUs encode a specific Means_of_Gathering and/or Source, but these may also be expressed separately
Denotes a human being and express that we are talking about human cognitive biases.
People
Information regarding the prevalence of a specific disease within a population proving that the result might be a false positive, used as a base rate for evaluation purposes.
Disease Base Rate Information
A physician involved in the assessment of disease likelihood, potentially affected by cognitive biases such as the base rate fallacy
Dr Lee
The process of determining the probability that a patient has a specific disease based true positive observation.
Evaluating Likelihood Of Disease
General information about a disease, which includes statistical data and base rates pertinent to its occurrence in a population.
Information Regarding Disease
The decision-making process involved in diagnosing a patient, which considers both base rate information and specific case details.
Making Diagnosis
Rate of disease within the population
Rate
The information regarding that test result is positive and highly accurate, with a 99% chance of a positive result if you have the disease.
Test Result
The observation that the test is a true positive based on the test result (specific information), often reflecting on the evaluation of the disease likelihood.
True Positive Observation