from freqtrade.strategy.interface import IStrategy from typing import Dict, List from pandas import DataFrame import talib.abstract as ta import freqtrade.vendor.qtpylib.indicators as qtpylib import numpy as np import pandas as pd import statsmodels.api as sm import os import time class MarkovV4(IStrategy): stoploss = -0.05 timeframe = '30m' process_only_new_candles = True use_sell_signal = True sell_profit_only = False ignore_roi_if_buy_signal = False def bot_loop_start(self, **kwargs): pass headers = ["date", "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume"] filename = os.path.join("user_data/data/binance/BTC_USDT-30m.json") data = pd.read_json(filename) data.columns = headers data['returns'] = np.log(data['close'] / data['close'].shift()) model = sm.tsa.MarkovRegression(data['returns'][-2500:], k_regimes=3, switching_variance=True) res_1 = model.fit(search_reps=50) def populate_indicators(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: dataframe['volumeGap'] = np.log(dataframe['volume'] / dataframe['volume'].shift()) dataframe['dailyChange'] = (dataframe['close'] - dataframe['open']) / dataframe['open'] dataframe['fractHigh'] = (dataframe['high'] - dataframe['open']) / dataframe['open'] dataframe['fractLow'] = (dataframe['open'] - dataframe['low']) / dataframe['open'] dataframe['forecastVariable'] = dataframe['close'].shift(-1) - dataframe['close'] dataframe = dataframe.fillna(0) endog = dataframe['forecastVariable'] exog = dataframe[['volumeGap', 'dailyChange', 'fractHigh', 'fractLow']] mod_2 = sm.tsa.MarkovRegression(endog=endog, k_regimes=3, exog=exog) res_2 = mod_2.fit(search_reps=50) dataframe['prob_down'] = res_2.smoothed_marginal_probabilities[0] dataframe['prob_side'] = res_2.smoothed_marginal_probabilities[1] dataframe['prob_up'] = res_2.smoothed_marginal_probabilities[2] return dataframe def populate_buy_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: dataframe.loc[ ( (dataframe['prob_up'] > 0.8) & (dataframe['prob_side'] < 0.5) & (dataframe['prob_down'] < 0.5) ), 'buy'] = 1 return dataframe def populate_sell_trend(self, dataframe: DataFrame, metadata: dict) -> DataFrame: dataframe.loc[ ( (dataframe['prob_up'] < 0.5) & (dataframe['prob_side'] < 0.5) & (dataframe['prob_down'] > 0.8) ), 'sell'] = 1 return dataframe