--- title: "Oscars checklist 2019: The possible nominees" --- As I have for the past 2 years, I made a list of the movies that might be nominated at the Oscars this year so I could try to watch as many of them in theaters as possible (thank you, MoviePass and AMC A-List!). Like [2017](http://raviudeshi.com/16/12/oscars-checklist-2017) and [2018](http://raviudeshi.com/18/01/oscars-checklist-2018-contenders), I used odds data from Gold Derby to determine the movies that have a realistic chance of being nomninated in each category. Then I made a big list of all overall movies, sorted by most likely to be nominated to least. Thanks to last year's list giving me a jumpstart, I fully completed the [Oscars Death Race](https://www.npr.org/sections/monkeysee/2011/02/24/134029466/one-woman-56-movies-the-oscars-death-race-a-windmill-worth-tilting-at) - watching every movie nominated in every category - for the first time! So maybe the list below will be helpful for anyone else who would like to do the same. --- **Shortcuts** * [Sort by category](#sort-by-category) * Major Categories: *[Picture](#best-picture) / [Director](#best-director) / [Actress](#best-actress) / [Actor](#best-actor) / [Supporting Actress](#best-supporting-actress) / [Supporting Actor](#best-supporting-actor)* * Minor Categories: *[Cinematography](#best-cinematography) / [Original Screenplay](#best-original-screenplay) / [Adapted Screenplay](#best-adapted-screenplay) / [Animated Feature](#best-animated-feature) / [Documentary Feature](#best-documentary-feature) / [Foreign Language Film](#best-foreign-language-film)* * Technical Categories: *[Costume Design](#best-costume-design) / [Film Editing](#best-film-editing) / [Makeup and Hairstyling](#best-makeup-and-hairstyling) / [Production Design](#best-production-design) / [Score](#best-score) / [Song](#best-song) / [Sound Editing](#best-sound-editing) / [Sound Mixing](#best-sound-mixing) / [Visual Effects](#best-visual-effects)* * Short Film Categories: *[Animated Short](#best-animated-short) / [Documentary Short](#best-documentary-short) / [Live Action Short](#best-live-action-short)* * [Final list](#final-list) --- ### Sort by category Here's [Gold Derby's data](https://www.goldderby.com/odds/expert-odds/oscars-nominations-2019/) for all 24 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on Dec 23 and calculated the "points" for each category using a simple implied probability conversion from fractional odds to decimal points. Like the past 2 years, I omitted every movie with 0 experts predicting a nomination or win, so only movies that *someone* thinks might actually be nominated are included. Columns: * **NOM** = The number of experts who believe a film will be *nominated* for that award. * **WIN** = The number of experts who believe a film will *win* that award. * **ODDS** = GoldDerby's calculated odds of a movie winning that award. * **PTS** = Implied probability (It's just `(Denominator) / (Numerator + Denominator)`. For example, a title with 4/1 odds is calculated as `(1) / (4 + 1)` = `(1 / 5)` = `20%`. In other words, the percentage chance of a movie winning that category.) Here we go! #### Best Picture |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | A Star Is Born | 30 | 21 | 13/2 | 13.33 | | 2 | Roma | 30 | 3 | 15/2 | 11.76 | | 3 | Green Book | 30 | 5 | 15/2 | 11.76 | | 4 | The Favourite | 29 | 0 | 17/2 | 10.53 | | 5 | Black Panther | 27 | 1 | 10/1 | 9.09 | | 6 | If Beale Street Could Talk | 28 | 0 | 21/2 | 8.70 | | 7 | BlacKkKlansman | 26 | 0 | 11/1 | 8.33 | | 8 | Vice | 27 | 0 | 23/2 | 8.00 | | 9 | First Man | 21 | 0 | 18/1 | 5.26 | | 10 | Mary Poppins Returns | 17 | 0 | 22/1 | 4.35 | | 11 | Can You Ever Forgive Me? | 7 | 0 | 52/1 | 1.89 | | 12 | First Reformed | 4 | 0 | 75/1 | 1.32 | | 13 | A Quiet Place | 4 | 0 | 92/1 | 1.08 | | 14 | Crazy Rich Asians | 4 | 0 | 95/1 | 1.04 | | 15 | Widows | 3 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 16 | Eighth Grade | 4 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 17 | Bohemian Rhapsody | 3 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 18 | The Rider | 2 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 19 | Beautiful Boy | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 20 | Leave No Trace | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Director |-----|--------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|--------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | Roma (Alfonso Cuaron) | 30 | 27 | 16/5 | 23.81 | | 2 | A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) | 28 | 2 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 3 | BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee) | 23 | 1 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 4 | The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos) | 21 | 0 | 13/2 | 13.33 | | 5 | If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) | 16 | 0 | 9/1 | 10.00 | | 6 | Green Book (Peter Farrelly) | 9 | 0 | 16/1 | 5.88 | | 7 | First Man (Damien Chazelle) | 8 | 0 | 20/1 | 4.76 | | 8 | Black Panther (Ryan Coogler) | 5 | 0 | 30/1 | 3.23 | | 9 | Vice (Adam McKay) | 5 | 0 | 33/1 | 2.94 | | 10 | Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Marielle Heller) | 2 | 0 | 80/1 | 1.23 | | 11 | Leave No Trace (Debra Granik) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 12 | You Were Never Really Here (Lynne Ramsay) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 13 | First Reformed (Paul Schrader) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|--------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Actress |-----|---------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|---------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | A Star Is Born (Lady Gaga) | 28 | 16 | 19/5 | 20.83 | | 2 | The Favourite (Olivia Colman) | 30 | 6 | 39/10 | 20.41 | | 3 | The Wife (Glenn Close) | 28 | 6 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 4 | Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Melissa McCarthy) | 27 | 2 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 5 | Roma (Yalitza Aparicio) | 17 | 0 | 17/2 | 10.53 | | 6 | Mary Poppins Returns (Emily Blunt) | 10 | 0 | 15/1 | 6.25 | | 7 | Widows (Viola Davis) | 4 | 0 | 40/1 | 2.44 | | 8 | Hereditary (Toni Collette) | 2 | 0 | 80/1 | 1.23 | | 9 | Mary Queen of Scots (Saoirse Ronan) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 10 | Wildlife (Carey Mulligan) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 11 | Ben Is Back (Julia Roberts) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 12 | Cold War (Joanna Kulig) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|---------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Actor |-----|------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) | 28 | 15 | 19/5 | 20.83 | | 2 | Vice (Christian Bale) | 29 | 7 | 4/1 | 20.00 | | 3 | Green Book (Viggo Mortensen) | 29 | 5 | 4/1 | 20.00 | | 4 | Bohemian Rhapsody (Rami Malek) | 27 | 2 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 5 | First Reformed (Ethan Hawke) | 21 | 1 | 13/2 | 13.33 | | 6 | BlacKkKlansman (John David Washington) | 8 | 0 | 20/1 | 4.76 | | 7 | At Eternity's Gate (Willem Dafoe) | 5 | 0 | 33/1 | 2.94 | | 8 | First Man (Ryan Gosling) | 2 | 0 | 78/1 | 1.27 | | 9 | The Old Man and the Gun (Robert Redford) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Supporting Actress |-----|------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | If Beale Street Could Talk (Regina King) | 29 | 21 | 7/2 | 22.22 | | 2 | Vice (Amy Adams) | 26 | 7 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 3 | The Favourite (Rachel Weisz) | 27 | 0 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 4 | The Favourite (Emma Stone) | 26 | 1 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 5 | First Man (Claire Foy) | 19 | 0 | 15/2 | 11.76 | | 6 | Boy Erased (Nicole Kidman) | 6 | 0 | 28/1 | 3.45 | | 7 | Crazy Rich Asians (Michelle Yeoh) | 5 | 1 | 30/1 | 3.23 | | 8 | Roma (Marina de Tavira) | 3 | 0 | 54/1 | 1.82 | | 9 | Mary Queen of Scots (Margot Robbie) | 2 | 0 | 80/1 | 1.23 | | 10 | Widows (Elizabeth Debicki) | 2 | 0 | 80/1 | 1.23 | | 11 | A Quiet Place (Emily Blunt) | 2 | 0 | 82/1 | 1.20 | | 12 | Leave No Trace (Thomasin McKenzie) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 13 | Green Book (Linda Cardellini) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 14 | What They Had (Blythe Danner) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Supporting Actor |-----|------------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|------------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | Green Book (Mahershala Ali) | 30 | 16 | 7/2 | 22.22 | | 2 | Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Richard E. Grant) | 30 | 5 | 4/1 | 20.00 | | 3 | A Star Is Born (Sam Elliott) | 27 | 3 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 4 | Beautiful Boy (Timothee Chalamet) | 23 | 4 | 11/2 | 15.38 | | 5 | BlacKkKlansman (Adam Driver) | 16 | 1 | 9/1 | 10.00 | | 6 | Vice (Sam Rockwell) | 9 | 0 | 18/1 | 5.26 | | 7 | Black Panther (Michael B. Jordan) | 7 | 1 | 22/1 | 4.35 | | 8 | Widows (Daniel Kaluuya) | 3 | 0 | 54/1 | 1.82 | | 9 | Vice (Steve Carell) | 2 | 0 | 80/1 | 1.23 | | 10 | The Hate U Give (Russell Hornsby) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 11 | If Beale Street Could Talk (Brian Tyree Henry) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 12 | The Wife (Jonathan Pryce) | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|------------------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Original Screenplay |-----|---------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|---------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | The Favourite | 29 | 15 | 37/10 | 21.28 | | 2 | Roma | 29 | 8 | 4/1 | 20.00 | | 3 | Green Book | 26 | 4 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 4 | First Reformed | 23 | 2 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 5 | Vice | 20 | 0 | 7/1 | 12.50 | | 6 | Eighth Grade | 15 | 1 | 19/2 | 9.52 | | 7 | A Quiet Place | 4 | 0 | 40/1 | 2.44 | | 8 | Sorry to Bother You | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 9 | Capernaum | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 10 | Private Life | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|---------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Adapted Screenplay |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | BlacKkKlansman | 27 | 20 | 19/5 | 20.83 | | 2 | If Beale Street Could Talk | 29 | 5 | 4/1 | 20.00 | | 3 | A Star Is Born | 28 | 2 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 4 | Can You Ever Forgive Me? | 28 | 1 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 5 | First Man | 10 | 0 | 15/1 | 6.25 | | 6 | Leave No Trace | 7 | 0 | 22/1 | 4.35 | | 7 | Black Panther | 6 | 0 | 25/1 | 3.85 | | 8 | Widows | 4 | 0 | 40/1 | 2.44 | | 9 | The Death of Stalin | 4 | 0 | 40/1 | 2.44 | | 10 | Beautiful Boy | 3 | 2 | 44/1 | 2.22 | | 11 | Crazy Rich Asians | 3 | 0 | 54/1 | 1.82 | | 12 | Wildlife | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Cinematography |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | Roma | 29 | 27 | 16/5 | 23.81 | | 2 | The Favourite | 26 | 1 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 3 | First Man | 25 | 1 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 4 | If Beale Street Could Talk | 22 | 0 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 5 | A Star Is Born | 18 | 0 | 15/2 | 11.76 | | 6 | Black Panther | 12 | 0 | 12/1 | 7.69 | | 7 | Cold War | 7 | 0 | 20/1 | 4.76 | | 8 | The Rider | 2 | 0 | 80/1 | 1.23 | | 9 | Green Book | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 10 | Mary Poppins Returns | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 11 | Widows | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 12 | A Private War | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Film Editing |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | Roma | 26 | 11 | 19/5 | 20.83 | | 2 | First Man | 22 | 12 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 3 | A Star Is Born | 21 | 2 | 11/2 | 15.38 | | 4 | The Favourite | 21 | 0 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 5 | Vice | 13 | 0 | 21/2 | 8.70 | | 6 | Widows | 12 | 1 | 11/1 | 8.33 | | 7 | Black Panther | 9 | 2 | 14/1 | 6.67 | | 8 | Green Book | 3 | 0 | 44/1 | 2.22 | | 9 | 22 July | 3 | 0 | 48/1 | 2.04 | | 10 | BlacKkKlansman | 2 | 0 | 70/1 | 1.41 | | 11 | Destroyer | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 12 | A Quiet Place | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 13 | If Beale Street Could Talk | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 14 | Mary Poppins Returns | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Costume Design |-----|------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | The Favourite | 28 | 17 | 17/5 | 22.73 | | 2 | Black Panther | 28 | 9 | 37/10 | 21.28 | | 3 | Mary Poppins Returns | 27 | 1 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 4 | Mary Queen of Scots | 26 | 1 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 5 | Colette | 7 | 0 | 20/1 | 4.76 | | 6 | Crazy Rich Asians | 7 | 0 | 20/1 | 4.76 | | 7 | Fantastic Beasts 2 | 6 | 0 | 25/1 | 3.85 | | 8 | A Star Is Born | 4 | 0 | 37/1 | 2.63 | | 9 | Bohemian Rhapsody | 3 | 0 | 50/1 | 1.96 | | 10 | The Nutcracker and the Four Realms | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 11 | Suspiria | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Makeup and Hairstyling |-----|---------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|---------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | Vice | 9 | 8 | 31/20 | 39.22 | | 2 | Black Panther | 6 | 2 | 4/1 | 20.00 | | 3 | Border | 4 | 0 | 17/2 | 10.53 | | 4 | Suspiria | 3 | 0 | 11/1 | 8.33 | | 5 | Stan and Ollie | 3 | 0 | 11/1 | 8.33 | | 6 | Mary Queen of Scots | 3 | 0 | 23/2 | 8.00 | | 7 | Bohemian Rhapsody | 2 | 0 | 18/1 | 5.26 | |-----|---------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Production Design |-----|------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | Black Panther | 28 | 15 | 17/5 | 22.73 | | 2 | The Favourite | 27 | 11 | 37/10 | 21.28 | | 3 | First Man | 24 | 1 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 4 | Mary Poppins Returns | 21 | 0 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 5 | A Star Is Born | 12 | 0 | 23/2 | 8.00 | | 6 | Roma | 10 | 1 | 13/1 | 7.14 | | 7 | Crazy Rich Asians | 6 | 0 | 25/1 | 3.85 | | 8 | Mary Queen of Scots | 3 | 0 | 48/1 | 2.04 | | 9 | Isle of Dogs | 2 | 0 | 72/1 | 1.37 | | 10 | The Nutcracker and the Four Realms | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 11 | Fantastic Beasts 2 | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 12 | Green Book | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Song |-----|---------------------------------------------------------------------|-----|-----|------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|---------------------------------------------------------------------|-----|-----|------|-------| | 1 | A Star Is Born (Shallow) | 12 | 12 | 16/5 | 23.81 | | 2 | Black Panther (All the Stars) | 11 | 0 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 3 | RBG (I'll Fight) | 10 | 0 | 11/2 | 15.38 | | 4 | Mary Poppins Returns (The Place Where Lost Things Go) | 9 | 0 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 5 | Dumplin' (Girl in the Movies) | 7 | 0 | 17/2 | 10.53 | | 6 | Mary Poppins Returns (Trip a Little Light Fantastic) | 4 | 0 | 14/1 | 6.67 | | 7 | Boy Erased (Revelation) | 4 | 0 | 16/1 | 5.88 | | 8 | Ballad of Buster Scruggs (When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings) | 2 | 0 | 33/1 | 2.94 | | 9 | Quincy (Keep Reachin') | 1 | 0 | 66/1 | 1.49 | |-----|---------------------------------------------------------------------|-----|-----|------|-------| #### Best Score |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|------|-------| | 1 | First Man | 12 | 5 | 18/5 | 21.74 | | 2 | If Beale Street Could Talk | 12 | 4 | 19/5 | 20.83 | | 3 | Black Panther | 10 | 1 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 4 | Mary Poppins Returns | 9 | 1 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 5 | Isle of Dogs | 8 | 0 | 7/1 | 12.50 | | 6 | BlacKkKlansman | 4 | 0 | 16/1 | 5.88 | | 7 | A Quiet Place | 3 | 0 | 22/1 | 4.35 | | 8 | Vice | 2 | 1 | 28/1 | 3.45 | |-----|----------------------------|-----|-----|------|-------| #### Best Sound Editing |-----|-----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|-----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | First Man | 26 | 16 | 37/10 | 21.28 | | 2 | Black Panther | 27 | 3 | 39/10 | 20.41 | | 3 | A Quiet Place | 26 | 4 | 4/1 | 20.00 | | 4 | A Star Is Born | 25 | 1 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 5 | Roma | 21 | 3 | 11/2 | 15.38 | | 6 | Mission Impossible: Fallout | 6 | 0 | 25/1 | 3.85 | | 7 | Incredibles 2 | 2 | 0 | 72/1 | 1.37 | | 8 | Bohemian Rhapsody | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 1 | A Star Is Born | 27 | 8 | 19/5 | 20.83 | |-----|-----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Sound Mixing |-----|-----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|-----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 2 | First Man | 25 | 12 | 4/1 | 20.00 | | 3 | Black Panther | 25 | 3 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 4 | A Quiet Place | 20 | 2 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 5 | Mary Poppins Returns | 16 | 0 | 8/1 | 11.11 | | 6 | Bohemian Rhapsody | 12 | 0 | 11/1 | 8.33 | | 7 | Roma | 8 | 2 | 16/1 | 5.88 | | 8 | The Favourite | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | | 9 | Mission Impossible: Fallout | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|-----------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Visual Effects |-----|--------------------------------|-----|-----|------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|--------------------------------|-----|-----|------|-------| | 1 | Black Panther | 11 | 10 | 16/5 | 23.81 | | 2 | Ready Player One | 11 | 0 | 4/1 | 20.00 | | 3 | First Man | 10 | 0 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 4 | Avengers: Infinity War | 8 | 1 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 5 | Mary Poppins Returns | 7 | 0 | 15/2 | 11.76 | | 6 | Welcome to Marwen | 6 | 0 | 9/1 | 10.00 | | 7 | Ant-Man and the Wasp | 1 | 0 | 58/1 | 1.69 | | 8 | Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom | 1 | 0 | 60/1 | 1.64 | |-----|--------------------------------|-----|-----|------|-------| #### Best Animated Feature |-----|-----------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|-----------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | Isle of Dogs | 28 | 3 | 4/1 | 20.00 | | 2 | Incredibles 2 | 26 | 11 | 4/1 | 20.00 | | 3 | Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse | 24 | 13 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 4 | Ralph Breaks the Internet | 27 | 0 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 5 | Mirai | 24 | 0 | 11/2 | 15.38 | | 6 | Smallfoot | 5 | 1 | 28/1 | 3.45 | | 7 | Early Man | 3 | 0 | 48/1 | 2.04 | | 8 | Tito and the Birds | 2 | 0 | 78/1 | 1.27 | | 9 | The Grinch | 1 | 0 | 100/1 | 0.99 | |-----|-----------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Documentary Feature |-----|----------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|----------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | Won't You Be My Neighbor? | 11 | 5 | 71/20 | 21.98 | | 2 | Free Solo | 10 | 2 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 3 | RBG | 9 | 4 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 4 | Three Identical Strangers | 8 | 0 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 5 | Minding the Gap | 7 | 0 | 15/2 | 11.76 | | 6 | Hale County This Morning, This Evening | 3 | 0 | 20/1 | 4.76 | | 7 | Dark Money | 2 | 0 | 30/1 | 3.23 | | 8 | Shirkers | 2 | 0 | 30/1 | 3.23 | | 9 | Crime + Punishment | 1 | 0 | 58/1 | 1.69 | | 10 | Of Fathers and Sons | 1 | 0 | 60/1 | 1.64 | | 11 | The Silence of Others | 1 | 0 | 60/1 | 1.64 | |-----|----------------------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Foreign Language Film |-----|------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | Roma | 10 | 10 | 18/5 | 21.74 | | 2 | Cold War | 11 | 1 | 39/10 | 20.41 | | 3 | Capernaum | 11 | 0 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 4 | Shoplifters | 10 | 0 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 5 | Never Look Away | 6 | 0 | 9/1 | 10.00 | | 6 | Burning | 4 | 0 | 14/1 | 6.67 | | 7 | The Guilty | 2 | 0 | 28/1 | 3.45 | | 8 | Birds of Passage | 1 | 0 | 60/1 | 1.64 | |-----|------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Animated Short |-----|------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | Bao | 8 | 6 | 39/10 | 20.41 | | 2 | Animal Behaviour | 8 | 0 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 3 | Lost and Found | 8 | 0 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 4 | Bilby | 7 | 1 | 11/2 | 15.38 | | 5 | Weekends | 7 | 0 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 6 | Bird Karma | 3 | 1 | 14/1 | 6.67 | | 7 | Age of Sail | 2 | 0 | 25/1 | 3.85 | | 8 | Pepe le Morse | 1 | 1 | 37/1 | 2.63 | | 9 | One Small Step | 1 | 0 | 46/1 | 2.13 | |-----|------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Documentary Short |-----|--------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|--------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| | 1 | Black Sheep | 9 | 6 | 69/20 | 22.47 | | 2 | Zion | 8 | 1 | 9/2 | 18.18 | | 3 | End Game | 8 | 0 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 4 | Women of the Gulag | 8 | 0 | 5/1 | 16.67 | | 5 | Period. End of Sentence. | 7 | 0 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 6 | 63 Boycott | 2 | 1 | 20/1 | 4.76 | | 7 | A Night at the Garden | 2 | 1 | 20/1 | 4.76 | | 8 | Los Comandos | 1 | 0 | 48/1 | 2.04 | |-----|--------------------------|-----|-----|-------|-------| #### Best Live Action Short |-----|------------|-----|-----|------|-------| | NUM | NAME | NOM | WIN | ODDS | PTS | |-----|------------|-----|-----|------|-------| | 1 | Marguerite | 9 | 1 | 19/5 | 20.83 | | 2 | Caroline | 8 | 6 | 4/1 | 20.00 | | 3 | Icare | 7 | 1 | 11/2 | 15.38 | | 4 | Skin | 7 | 0 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 5 | Detainment | 7 | 0 | 6/1 | 14.29 | | 6 | Fauve | 3 | 0 | 15/1 | 6.25 | | 7 | May Day | 2 | 0 | 22/1 | 4.35 | | 8 | Chuchotage | 1 | 1 | 37/1 | 2.63 | | 9 | Mother | 1 | 0 | 48/1 | 2.04 | |-----|------------|-----|-----|------|-------| --- ### Final List In past years, I composed the final list of only *English* feature-length films (no foreign films, no documentaries, no shorts). But this year, some of the foreign films are up in other categories (Roma, Cold War) and many of the documentaries actually played in mainstream theaters nationwide (RBG, Free Solo, Won't You Be My Neighbor, etc). So for this year's list, I've included all movies except short films. Altogether, that makes **79** unique movies that may be nominated for an Oscar. *A Star is Born* is in the lead, but it's not that far ahead of many other very good movies. (I know they're longshots, but I'll be rooting for Leave No Trace, Eighth Grade, Beautiful Boy, and A Private War!) |-----|--------------------------------------------|----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Num | Movie | Points | Possible Categories | |-----|--------------------------------------------|----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 1. | **A Star Is Born** | *210.15* | 13 *(Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)* | | 2. | **Black Panther** | *196.12* | 14 *(Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Song, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)* | | 3. | **The Favourite** | *174.82* | 11 *(Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Sound Mixing)* | | 4. | **Roma** | *162.71* | 11 *(Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Foreign Language Film)* | | 5. | **First Man** | *162.02* | 12 *(Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)* | | 6. | **Vice** | *119.48* | 10 *(Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score)* | | 7. | **Mary Poppins Returns** | *103.16* | 11 *(Picture, Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Song, Song, Score, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)* | | 8. | **If Beale Street Could Talk** | *98.02* | 8 *(Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Score)* | | 9. | **Green Book** | *81.73* | 9 *(Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design)* | | 10. | **BlacKkKlansman** | *65.51* | 7 *(Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Score)* | | 11. | **Can You Ever Forgive Me?** | *57.97* | 5 *(Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)* | | 12. | **A Quiet Place** | *44.34* | 7 *(Picture, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)* | | 13. | **Bohemian Rhapsody** | *34.20* | 6 *(Picture, Actor, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)* | | 14. | **Isle of Dogs** | *33.87* | 3 *(Production Design, Score, Animated Feature)* | | 15. | **RBG** | *32.05* | 2 *(Song, Documentary Feature)* | | 16. | **Mary Queen of Scots** | *30.45* | 5 *(Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design)* | | 17. | **First Reformed** | *29.92* | 4 *(Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay)* | | 18. | **Cold War** | *26.16* | 3 *(Actress, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film)* | | 19. | **Won't You Be My Neighbor?** | *21.98* | 1 *(Documentary Feature)* | | 20. | **Incredibles 2** | *21.37* | 2 *(Sound Editing, Animated Feature)* | | 21. | **Ready Player One** | *20.00* | 1 *(Visual Effects)* | | 22. | **The Wife** | *19.17* | 2 *(Actress, Supporting Actor)* | | 23. | **Capernaum** | *19.17* | 2 *(Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film)* | | 24. | **Beautiful Boy** | *18.60* | 3 *(Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)* | | 25. | **Widows** | *18.24* | 7 *(Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing)* | | 26. | **Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse** | *18.18* | 1 *(Animated Feature)* | | 27. | **Ralph Breaks the Internet** | *18.18* | 1 *(Animated Feature)* | | 28. | **Free Solo** | *18.18* | 1 *(Documentary Feature)* | | 29. | **Shoplifters** | *16.67* | 1 *(Foreign Language Film)* | | 30. | **Mirai** | *15.38* | 1 *(Animated Feature)* | | 31. | **Crazy Rich Asians** | *14.69* | 5 *(Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design)* | | 32. | **Avengers: Infinity War** | *14.29* | 1 *(Visual Effects)* | | 33. | **Three Identical Strangers** | *14.29* | 1 *(Documentary Feature)* | | 34. | **Minding the Gap** | *11.76* | 1 *(Documentary Feature)* | | 35. | **Border** | *10.53* | 1 *(Makeup and Hairstyling)* | | 36. | **Dumplin'** | *10.53* | 1 *(Song)* | | 37. | **Eighth Grade** | *10.51* | 2 *(Picture, Original Screenplay)* | | 38. | **Welcome to Marwen** | *10.00* | 1 *(Visual Effects)* | | 39. | **Never Look Away** | *10.00* | 1 *(Foreign Language Film)* | | 40. | **Boy Erased** | *9.33* | 2 *(Supporting Actress, Song)* | | 41. | **Suspiria** | *9.32* | 2 *(Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling)* | | 42. | **Stan and Ollie** | *8.33* | 1 *(Makeup and Hairstyling)* | | 43. | **Leave No Trace** | *7.32* | 4 *(Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay)* | | 44. | **Burning** | *6.67* | 1 *(Foreign Language Film)* | | 45. | **Fantastic Beasts 2** | *4.84* | 2 *(Costume Design, Production Design)* | | 46. | **Mission Impossible: Fallout** | *4.84* | 2 *(Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)* | | 47. | **Colette** | *4.76* | 1 *(Costume Design)* | | 48. | **Hale County This Morning, This Evening** | *4.76* | 1 *(Documentary Feature)* | | 49. | **Smallfoot** | *3.45* | 1 *(Animated Feature)* | | 50. | **The Guilty** | *3.45* | 1 *(Foreign Language Film)* | | 51. | **Dark Money** | *3.23* | 1 *(Documentary Feature)* | | 52. | **Shirkers** | *3.23* | 1 *(Documentary Feature)* | | 53. | **At Eternity's Gate** | *2.94* | 1 *(Actor)* | | 54. | **Ballad of Buster Scruggs** | *2.94* | 1 *(Song)* | | 55. | **The Death of Stalin** | *2.44* | 1 *(Adapted Screenplay)* | | 56. | **The Rider** | *2.22* | 2 *(Picture, Cinematography)* | | 57. | **22 July** | *2.04* | 1 *(Film Editing)* | | 58. | **Early Man** | *2.04* | 1 *(Animated Feature)* | | 59. | **Wildlife** | *1.98* | 2 *(Actress, Adapted Screenplay)* | | 60. | **The Nutcracker and the Four Realms** | *1.98* | 2 *(Costume Design, Production Design)* | | 61. | **Ant-Man and the Wasp** | *1.69* | 1 *(Visual Effects)* | | 62. | **Crime + Punishment** | *1.69* | 1 *(Documentary Feature)* | | 63. | **Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom** | *1.64* | 1 *(Visual Effects)* | | 64. | **Of Fathers and Sons** | *1.64* | 1 *(Documentary Feature)* | | 65. | **The Silence of Others** | *1.64* | 1 *(Documentary Feature)* | | 66. | **Birds of Passage** | *1.64* | 1 *(Foreign Language Film)* | | 67. | **Quincy** | *1.49* | 1 *(Song)* | | 68. | **Tito and the Birds** | *1.27* | 1 *(Animated Feature)* | | 69. | **Hereditary** | *1.23* | 1 *(Actress)* | | 70. | **You Were Never Really Here** | *0.99* | 1 *(Director)* | | 71. | **Ben Is Back** | *0.99* | 1 *(Actress)* | | 72. | **The Old Man and the Gun** | *0.99* | 1 *(Actor)* | | 73. | **What They Had** | *0.99* | 1 *(Supporting Actress)* | | 74. | **The Hate U Give** | *0.99* | 1 *(Supporting Actor)* | | 75. | **Sorry to Bother You** | *0.99* | 1 *(Original Screenplay)* | | 76. | **Private Life** | *0.99* | 1 *(Original Screenplay)* | | 77. | **A Private War** | *0.99* | 1 *(Cinematography)* | | 78. | **Destroyer** | *0.99* | 1 *(Film Editing)* | | 79. | **The Grinch** | *0.99* | 1 *(Animated Feature)* | |-----|--------------------------------------------|----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|