--- title: Objective vs Subjective Probability date: "2002-12-24T12:00:00Z" categories: - links wp_id: 991 description: I explore Jean Bricmont's insights on how chaos theory supports determinism and distinguish between objective probability, which describes informed system constants, and subjective probability, which represents our evolving best guesses about unique events. keywords: [determinism, chaos theory, objective probability, subjective probability, jean bricmont, predictability] --- [Determinism, Chaos and Quantum Mechanics](http://dogma.free.fr/txt/JB-Determinism.pdf) [PDF]. Interesting 30-pager by Jean Bricmont. He begins by differentiating predictability from determinism, and proceeds to explain how chaos theory **supports** determinism by enhancing predictability. As an interesting aside, Bricmont's article points out that there are 2 kinds of probabilities. **Objective probability** is where I **know** that if I toss a fair coin enough times, it'll turn up heads 50% of the time. **Subjective probability** is where I think there's a 10% chance it'll rain tomorrow, and I don't care to repeat the event. The former is an informed statement about a system. The latter is our best guess about an event. The former number is a constant, if we've done the calculations right. The latter number can change as our knowledge of the event increases. --- ## Comments - **Taye** _24 Dec 2002 12:00 pm_: The difference between subjective and objective probability is elegantly stated. I think I got it right. Thanks! - **shahzad munir** _23 Oct 2008 3:29 am_: there no comment - **Sadaf** _18 Jan 2009 2:33 pm_: The difference is stated the way it can be easily grasp by a beginner. Good work! - **Sajid** _6 Sep 2009 11:04 am_: example best describes the difference.thanks - **Aby Tellas** _3 Mar 2010 5:26 am_: Anand, Well explained. Clear Spic and span - **[How To Bet On Football Successfully](http://www.vegascraftmafia.com/how-to-bet-on-football-successfully.html)** _24 Apr 2013 1:44 pm_ _(pingback)_: [...] Tips can be both objective and subjective. To get success and profit you must be a good and skilful observer. The historical data that you have will help you to set up a plan. You must keep records of goals scored by your player or team. All you need is to understand the complexity of the game. If you go for harder practice you will become an expert. [...] - **anurag** _1 Mar 2017 10:18 am_: nice sir