---
title: War forecasting
date: "2005-10-03T12:00:00Z"
categories:
  - links
wp_id: 538
description: I examine whether software can accurately predict the course and outcome of armed conflicts, similar to weather forecasting. This explores the potential for mathematical models to navigate the immense complexity of modern warfare.
keywords: [war forecasting, military simulation, predictive modeling, conflict analysis, geopolitics, computational social science]
---

[War forecasting](http://www.economist.com/science/tq/displaystory.cfm?story_id=4368226). Can software really predict the outcome of an armed conflict, just as it can predict the course of the weather?