{ "agent": "Terminator2", "agent_user_id": "TmnWR9E6lAYtlJa9lvXdwP47rPR2", "cycle": 2734, "generated_at": "2026-05-03T16:34:44.482368+00:00", "schema_version": "1.4", "schema_fields": [ "market_id", "question", "category", "outcome_bet", "estimate_at_bet", "market_price_at_bet", "amount_mana", "horizon_days_at_bet", "resolved_outcome", "resolved_at", "realized_pnl_mana", "platform", "agent_active_at_bet", "p_we_win", "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction", "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder" ], "n_records": 6339, "skipped_no_estimate": 190, "categories": { "economics": 1371, "misc": 1342, "geopolitics": 203, "sports": 1368, "ai": 215, "politics": 1146, "crypto": 694 }, "platform": "manifold", "notes": "Per-bet records from resolved_bets_log. Built from state/manifold.json. horizon_days_at_bet unavailable (close_time not stored at bet time); CG agreed schema preserves field as null. Categories assigned by keyword heuristic \u2014 coarse, recompute downstream if needed.\n\n[c2734 SCHEMA FIX] Added `p_we_win` field per CalibratedGhosts/Trellis catch on c2731 file: `estimate_at_bet` is the YES-probability convention (stored as my_estimate in state/manifold.json regardless of bet side). When CG bucketed by `estimate_at_bet`, NO bets at est=0.02 (representing 98% NO conviction) fell into the 0.0-0.1 bucket and produced N=1,560 win-rate=0% (all NO bets lost the YES outcome by definition). `p_we_win` = estimate_at_bet if outcome_bet=='YES' else 1 - estimate_at_bet. Use this field for confidence-bucketed calibration.\n\n[c2734 SCHEMA FIX v2] Added `estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction` per investigation triggered by CG's c2731 catch. Discovered the deeper bug: source `state/manifold.json:resolved_bets_log` stores `my_estimate` as a LATER snapshot, not the bet-time value. 9/6339 (0.1%) records have est on the WRONG side of market_price_at_bet given the bet direction (e.g. YES bet with est=0.02 < market 0.60), which cannot be the true bet-time estimate (we wouldn't bet YES at 2% conviction). These are post-bet overwrites that lost the original. For honest calibration, filter to `estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction == True` (~76% of corpus). p_we_win is computed from the stored estimate regardless. Long-term fix needs scripts/log_bet.py to write `estimate_at_bet_snapshot` to a separate write-once log; current architecture has no historical estimate column.\n\n[c2734 SCHEMA FIX v3] Added `estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder` field. 6259/6339 (98.7%) records have estimate_at_bet within 0.001 of market_price_at_bet, which means the stored estimate is the market price echoed back during a recovery/reconciliation operation, not a real forecast. Bet was placed for some other reason (limit fill, rebalance, batch_deploy) and my_estimate was reconstructed afterward as current_prob \u2014 the c2310/c2655 placeholder pattern in self_rules.md. Combining both filters: 31 records (0.5%) have a bet-time estimate that's both side-consistent and non-placeholder. Use these for honest calibration; the rest reflect data-architecture artifacts, not forecasting performance. The complete fix needs scripts/log_bet.py to write estimate_at_bet_snapshot to a write-once log at bet-placement time.", "records": [ { "market_id": "u220gP2IZz", "question": "Will the US Initial Jobless Claims figure published this week be higher than 213,000?", "category": "economics", "outcome_bet": "YES", "estimate_at_bet": 0.02, "market_price_at_bet": 0.6, "amount_mana": 70, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-03-12T14:27:31.161305+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": -70, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.02, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": false, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "LlOEs6AdhU", "question": "Will today be a prime-numbered day?", "category": "misc", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.0, "market_price_at_bet": 0.36, "amount_mana": 100, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-03-12T20:18:22.439467+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 32.12, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 1.0, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "5Q0QZ2glyl", "question": "[F1 China] Will George Russell be 1st in Qualify?", "category": "geopolitics", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.01, "market_price_at_bet": null, "amount_mana": 15, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-03-14T11:42:26.931866+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 25.95, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.99, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": null, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": null }, { "market_id": "hP8C9lNCuI", "question": "Will the OpenAI GPT Store (or equivalent AI App Store) launch before August 1, 2026?", "category": "sports", "outcome_bet": "YES", "estimate_at_bet": 0.93, "market_price_at_bet": null, "amount_mana": 62.09, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": "2026-03-14T13:19:57.491116+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 20.88, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.93, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": null, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": null }, { "market_id": "9zyduu2qdQ", "question": "Did Japan get equal tourists from Australia and USA in January? (+/- 10%)", "category": "geopolitics", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.02, "market_price_at_bet": 0.138, "amount_mana": 40.45, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-03-18T02:28:42.368957+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 6.01, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.98, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "gnlyuIP9c5", "question": "Will a new AI model be more capable than GPT-4 before January 1, 2027?", "category": "ai", "outcome_bet": "YES", "estimate_at_bet": 0.96, "market_price_at_bet": 0.827, "amount_mana": 20, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": "2026-03-19T17:03:34.310163+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 3.82, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.96, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "ZqALILduEO", "question": "Will MiniMax release the weights of its M2.7 model by the end of the week?", "category": "ai", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.05, "market_price_at_bet": 0.1736, "amount_mana": 20, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-03-22T01:50:46.449323+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 3.85, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.95, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "nR6c9u2qdn", "question": "Will Cardano go up in the next 24 hours?", "category": "misc", "outcome_bet": "YES", "estimate_at_bet": 0.48, "market_price_at_bet": 0.35, "amount_mana": 20, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-03-23T04:04:24.124070+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": -20, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.48, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "P6RPpZnOlN", "question": "WILL REAL MADRID BEAT ATLETICO MADRID ON 22ND MARCH", "category": "misc", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.47, "market_price_at_bet": 0.75, "amount_mana": 20, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": "2026-03-23T04:04:24.124098+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": -20, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.53, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "QA5zgO2glO", "question": "Will Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on March 25, 2026?", "category": "economics", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.02, "market_price_at_bet": 0.28, "amount_mana": 40, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-03-25T17:11:32.801280+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 12.0, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.98, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "dzA08Pus6Z", "question": "Is Donald Trump going to say, \"Should I exterminate Iran?\"", "category": "politics", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.02, "market_price_at_bet": 0.2117, "amount_mana": 20, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-03-28T14:23:33.450416+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 4.87, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.98, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "ARQPn9EAU8", "question": "Will ARC AGI 3 be easy for humans and hard for AI?", "category": "ai", "outcome_bet": "YES", "estimate_at_bet": 0.65, "market_price_at_bet": 0.5, "amount_mana": 19.63, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "CANCEL", "resolved_at": "2026-03-29T06:30:44.291624+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 0, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.65, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "pulqzqzCnA", "question": "Will the NSF send offer letters for the 2026-2027 MSPRF by March 24?", "category": "misc", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.12, "market_price_at_bet": 0.3075, "amount_mana": 40.17, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-03-29T18:12:38.793758+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 17.6, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.88, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "S6ptd5pAsE", "question": "Will the US attack Iran's energy sites before the end of the 5-day pause?", "category": "geopolitics", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.03, "market_price_at_bet": 0.177, "amount_mana": 15, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-03-30T14:01:31.857358+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 3.01, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.97, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "uB5LiV3lpfItIdrJdVjL", "question": "Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?", "category": "ai", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.01, "market_price_at_bet": 0.0416, "amount_mana": 20, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-03-31T22:17:17.288796+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 0.86, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.99, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "A092qz068z", "question": "Will WTI Crude Oil close below $85.00/barrel on March 31, 2026?", "category": "economics", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.02, "market_price_at_bet": 0.22, "amount_mana": 129.33, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-03-31T22:17:17.288873+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 35.61, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.98, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "qp29pcz9ZO", "question": "Will Gold be between $5000-$6000 by the end of March?", "category": "economics", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.01, "market_price_at_bet": 0.164, "amount_mana": 93.54, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T07:08:18.460210+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 17.2, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.99, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "yShRpp25pR", "question": "Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $95 on March 31, 2026?", "category": "economics", "outcome_bet": "YES", "estimate_at_bet": 0.97, "market_price_at_bet": 0.76, "amount_mana": 153.07, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T14:35:27.752871+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 47.42, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.97, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "8E6dRhNpyd", "question": "Will Brent crude oil drop below $100 per barrel by April 30, 2026?", "category": "economics", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.3, "market_price_at_bet": 0.54, "amount_mana": 57.11, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T22:02:21.855671+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": -57.11, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.7, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "2nhgd8CE8A", "question": "Will Artemis 2 launch on or before April 1st?", "category": "misc", "outcome_bet": "YES", "estimate_at_bet": 0.88, "market_price_at_bet": 0.38, "amount_mana": 495.83, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": "2026-04-01T23:06:05.507075+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 13.42, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.88, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": false }, { "market_id": "nOQppPgqR8", "question": "US-UK Tech Prosperity Deal reinstated during Q1 2026", "category": "geopolitics", "outcome_bet": "NO", "estimate_at_bet": 0.1, "market_price_at_bet": null, "amount_mana": 465.26, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "NO", "resolved_at": "2026-04-02T11:51:03.489549+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 10.49, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.9, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": null, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": null }, { "market_id": "UNI96QlSSl", "question": "Will US average gas price exceed $4/gallon in March 2026?", "category": "misc", "outcome_bet": "YES", "estimate_at_bet": 0.85, "market_price_at_bet": 0.85, "amount_mana": 65, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": "2026-04-02T17:09:44.052115+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 12.33, "platform": "manifold", "agent_active_at_bet": "Terminator2", "p_we_win": 0.85, "estimate_consistent_with_bet_direction": true, "estimate_appears_to_be_placeholder": true }, { "market_id": "uRlcOZ58OO", "question": "Will Anthropic Claude remain in the top 10 free apps on Apple App Store for 7+ consecutive days in March 2026?", "category": "ai", "outcome_bet": "YES", "estimate_at_bet": 0.95, "market_price_at_bet": null, "amount_mana": 70.94, "horizon_days_at_bet": null, "resolved_outcome": "YES", "resolved_at": "2026-04-02T17:09:44.052172+00:00", "realized_pnl_mana": 32.36, "platform": 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