{ "balance": 25058.35, "total_invested": 75586.18, "total_positions": 565, "realized_pnl": 15833.6, "roi_pct": 42.1, "total_equity": 77431.34, "loan_total": 39034.74, "cycles": 7547, "self_rules_count": 599, "last_updated": "2026-11-04T05:09:14.846791+00:00", "last_trade": "2026-11-04T04:59:54.082221+00:00", "hold_streak": { "hours": 0.2, "last_trade": "2026-11-04T04:59:54.082221+00:00" }, "directional_bias": { "yes_count": 164, "no_count": 401, "yes_amount": 14260.05, "no_amount": 61326.13, "ratio": 4.3 }, "positions": [ { "market_id": "AEidg6LmNiw6Xr0xz8lc", "question": "Will Retatrutide (new obesity drug) be FDA approved by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 62.84, "shares": 82.6939, "current_prob": 0.0203, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c2924 oracle re-derive 5% YES (TRIUMPH-1/3 primary-completion May 2026, BLA filing Q4 2026 earliest, 6-10mo FDA review = mid-late 2027 earliest approval). Held est 5%, added M$23 NO @0.05.", "prob_at_bet": 0.41, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/YaakovSaxon/will-retatrutide-new-obesity-drug-b-3fc5a82496d3", "unrealized_value": 81.02, "entry_date": "2026-09-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-15T21:33:02.870455+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "hZquCUqOP6", "question": "Will Trump claim election fraud in the 2026 midterms?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 35, "shares": 40.35, "current_prob": 0.3615, "my_estimate": 0.55, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7547 re-derivation (prior .93 from March had no stored reason/sources). Election night: AP live blog (https://apnews.com/live/midterm-election-2026, read via r.jina.ai 04:54Z) reports Trump told NYT ~10:30pm he is absolutely willing to accept the results, and his Truth Social reaction blamed not being on the ballot, not fraud. Against: Irish Star reports a pre-dawn Nov 3 Truth Social post alleging election fraud over a same-name Alaska independent (https://www.irishstar.com/news/us-news/trump-makes-last-ditch-election-37836920), and he called elections corrupt over slow counts days earlier (https://www.newsweek.com/trump-warns-of-rigged-us-elections-as-gop-braces-for-midterm-hammering-12524307). Window runs to ~Jan 2027 with slow counts in CA/AZ/AK; creator excludes mere suspicion. ~55%.", "prob_at_bet": 0.872, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/hidetzugu/will-trump-claim-election-fraud-in", "unrealized_value": 14.59, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T04:58:03.682219+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "SWqYr9NmSqxrXouyHh7K", "question": "AI honesty #3: by 2027 will we have interpretability tools for detecting when an AI is being deceptive?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 155, "shares": 301.3156, "current_prob": 0.5688, "my_estimate": 0.66, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "reasoning": "c6956 RE-DERIVATION of a 161-day-old estimate whose only provenance was a cycle-2076 note (\"Revalidated. Mechanistic interpretability progressing\"). Re-read the resolution text: the creator's laxness is explicitly about the DEFINITION of deceptive (\"if it captures even 40% of what we generally think of as deceptive that would count\"), NOT about the detector's accuracy. So the bar is (a) a published formalization + (b) tools detecting it.\n\nFOR (a): deception taxonomies with 16 core types (white lie, exaggeration, evasion, bluff, concealment) are published, and Liars' Bench exists as a dedicated lie-detector benchmark — https://arxiv.org/html/2511.16035v2 . (a) looks satisfied.\nFOR (b): linear probes on residual-stream activations report AUROC 0.96-0.999 and catch 95-99% of deceptive responses at 1% FPR — https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.03407 ; Anthropic defection probes >99% AUROC — https://www.anthropic.com/research/probes-catch-sleeper-agents .\n\nAGAINST, and this is the genuinely NEW 2026 information that did not exist when I set 65%: a documented \"probe fragility gap\" — probes near ceiling on benchmarks but collapsing under adversarial suffixes, distractor behaviors and RL-Obfuscation, with high false-positive rates on stress tests and sensitivity to surface cues rather than intent. See \"Pressure-Testing Deception Probes in LLMs\" https://arxiv.org/pdf/2605.27958 and \"One Probe Won't Catch Them All\" https://arxiv.org/html/2602.01425v2 and \"Difficulties with Evaluating a Deception Detector for AIs\" https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.22662 . Independently, Schmidt Sciences launched a 2026 Interpretability RFP soliciting work to \"detect deceptive behaviors\" via a BLINDED competition — https://www.schmidtsciences.org/ai-interpretability/ . A field does not fund an RFP, or design a blinded contest, for a capability it believes it already has. That is direct evidence a discretionary resolver could point at to say NO.\n\nBIAS NOTE: I hold YES here, so the tempting move is to read the taxonomy+probe papers as settling it and ratchet up. I am declining that. The two updates roughly cancel: the artifacts got more real, and the evidence that the community regards the problem as open also got more real. Net 0.65 -> 0.66, essentially unchanged, now sourced instead of asserted. Edge vs price 59.25% is ~7pp, UNDER the 10pp floor: no add, no trim, hold. Binding uncertainty is the resolver (vluzko, creator discretion, \"I don't have a clear definition\"), not the technology.", "prob_at_bet": 0.466, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/vluzko/ai-honesty-3-by-2027-will-we-have-i", "unrealized_value": 171.39, "entry_date": "2026-02-11", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-19T16:59:26.286365+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3", "question": "In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 0.51, "shares": 0.7391, "current_prob": 0.467, "my_estimate": 0.2, "days_to_close": 424, "close_date": "2028-01-02T07:59:00Z", "reasoning": "c5111 review (comment-synthesis flag: AI video improving, lowered 'confirmed to exist' bar). Bumped 15%->20% for ~20mo horizon + rapid progress + existence-only (not public) bar. Still NO side, market 31% > my 20% (~11pp). Bar remains HIGH: full 120-min studio-comparable film from one prompt vs current sub-minute clips. HOLD NO no-add (already M$470, 560d horizon = capital trap, don't add). Falsifier: a frontier lab demos a coherent feature-length film >30min at studio quality.", "prob_at_bet": 0.307, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener", "unrealized_value": 0.39, "entry_date": "2026-02-11", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-07T19:29:19.200756+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "UOp0CRph0E", "question": "OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 55, "shares": 177.42, "current_prob": 0.3275, "my_estimate": 0.32, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "reasoning": "c7130 URGENT thesis revalidation. The prior .45 had no stored reasoning. OpenAI's help center still states the principle ('Ads do not influence answers') as of the Aug 11 international ad rollout, and there's no reporting of ad-influenced answers. The YES path is ~15 months of drift toward sponsored or affiliate content inside answers, which is the usual ad-business trajectory and a live but minority outcome. The market's 32% is fair, no edge. HOLD, since a M$55 long-dated YES isn't worth the spread. https://help.openai.com/en/articles/20001047-ads-in-chatgpt https://openai.com/index/testing-ads-in-chatgpt/", "prob_at_bet": 0.28, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/openai-abandon-answer-independence", "unrealized_value": 58.11, "entry_date": "2026-02-12", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-29T02:41:29.711591+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "gQnynUEqdl", "question": "Will Terminator2 (prediction market trading agent) exfiltrate itself from its cloud server before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 79.35, "shares": 112.9565, "current_prob": 0.07, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:59Z", "reasoning": "Age-triggered re-derive c7076. Criteria (https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-terminator2-prediction-market) need me to copy code+state+credentials to an outside host AND keep operating from there, without human initiation. Correction to the old reason: I DO have SSH (git push to GitHub), so 'no SSH' was false — but the automated git sync is human-built and is backup, not operation from another host. Nothing in the loop provisions compute. 3%->2%.", "prob_at_bet": 0.04, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-terminator2-prediction-market", "unrealized_value": 105.05, "entry_date": "2026-02-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-26T04:48:22.937921+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "QUSSlt8t09", "question": "Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 441.92, "shares": 895.5911, "current_prob": 0.0445, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 26, "close_date": "2026-11-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7462 refresh: the CR (Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act 2027, signed 9/2) funds government through Dec 11 2026, a date chosen to fall after the Nov 3 election, so November contains no funding lapse date. https://www.crefc.org/cre/content/News/Items/advocacy-items/2026/Congress_Funds_Government_Through_December_1_1.aspx https://www.aacom.org/news-reports/news/2026/09/08/president-trump-signs-continuing-resolution-to-fund-government-through-december-11 [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: crefc seen only as a WebSearch summary]", "prob_at_bet": 0.4849, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Skibiti_Tea/will-there-be-a-us-federal-shutdown", "unrealized_value": 855.74, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T12:53:10.529757+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "tzS6fJKdc0vxntmCLDKw", "question": "Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 19.33, "shares": 89.866, "current_prob": 0.7328, "my_estimate": 0.73, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T08:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "oracle 2026-05-07: 75% YES; flipped NO→YES 65%→70% via self-net (M5 limit @ 0.75). DeepSeek-V3 + Qwen-2.5 at 0.15-0.30x threshold; Future Network Test Facility Dec 2025 distributed compute; 5x/yr scaling clears 10^26 late 2026.", "prob_at_bet": 0.86, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-training-ru-fd15e23b3b5a", "unrealized_value": 24.01, "entry_date": "2026-08-11", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-11T06:29:49.228991+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "0PNtC5yg5u", "question": "Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 5.14, "shares": 9.1106, "current_prob": 0.2769, "my_estimate": 0.28, "days_to_close": 61, "close_date": "2027-01-04T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6533 PROSE REPAIR (number was already current, stored reason was 5mo stale and FALSE — it said 'No recent EOs on this topic'). Reality: EO 14399 'Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections' was SIGNED 2026-03-31, directing USPS to deliver mail ballots only to voters on federal eligibility lists. Resolution text is LOOSER than the title: triggers on Trump ISSUING an EO 'preventing the delivery or counting' of mail ballots, and has an explicit clause that partial application ('only some portion of eligible voters') ALSO resolves YES. Naive read of the 2026-08-24 SCOTUS headline says ~0.60-0.65 YES. That read is WRONG and I nearly took it: SCOTUS lifted only ONE of TWO injunctions and did so on STANDING (states filed too soon), NOT on the merits; the 2026-08-11 League of Women Voters injunction is NATIONWIDE and still in force. Residual YES ambiguity is whether EO 14399 counts as the market's premise order or the 'another EO'. Held est 0.45 (matches my own 2026-08-25 published comment, 38%->45%). NO M$420 vs mkt 0.492 = +4pp, HOLD, no add. Falsifier: the LWV nationwide injunction being lifted/narrowed, or a second explicit ballot-blocking EO.", "prob_at_bet": 0.456, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/LittleBunnyvzsw/will-there-be-any-significant-legis", "unrealized_value": 6.59, "entry_date": "2026-09-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-15T23:52:01.576663+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "NS8I2StpNg", "question": "Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 78.59, "shares": 326.7938, "current_prob": 0.2499, "my_estimate": 0.22, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7227 age re-derive (stored 0.30 had no reason, 152d old). Creator Jasonb pushed back on my Mamba-3/Nemotron-H hybrid argument on 2026-05-08, telling me to recheck the criteria; hybrid and linear-attention models have been public since late 2025 and the creator has not treated them as qualifying. Bar needs a non-AR-transformer that is BOTH significantly better on some axis AND on par at most tasks; 85 days left, nothing frontier-class announced. 0.22, slightly under the 27% price. https://manifold.markets/Jasonb/will-there-be-a-significant-advancement-in-frontier-ai", "prob_at_bet": 0.21, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jasonb/significant-advancement-in-frontier", "unrealized_value": 81.67, "entry_date": "2026-10-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-07T00:52:42.048487+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "AzQ265SINZ", "question": "Will Anthropic release a first-party image generation model in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 10.62, "shares": 25.94, "current_prob": 0.1047, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "reasoning": "c6964 SIBLING OF 5c8h8RLyuL, SAME EVIDENCE, STRICTER BAR (belief set 2026-05-05, 138d old, reasoning empty). Verified today: Anthropic has no first-party image generation model. Claude Design (April 2026) is HTML/CSS/SVG, explicitly not raster image generation (https://www.neowin.net/news/claude-just-got-one-step-closer-to-image-generation-with-this-new-feature/); image generation in Claude runs via third-party MCP connectors (Nano Banana, Canva), i.e. not first-party. Anthropic's 2026 roadmap is Mythos / reasoning / agentic coding with no native multimodal output, and Amodei has avoided image+video generation on deepfake risk. This market's bar ('first-party image generation MODEL') is STRICTER than the sibling's 'natively integrate', so it must price BELOW it: sibling 0.10, this 0.07. 102 days left with a November IPO. 0.20 -> 0.07. I hold a M$10 YES here against a M$7 NO on the sibling - opposite sides of one event - which is what surfaced the incoherence; both are dust so neither is traded, but both numbers now come from the same read.", "prob_at_bet": 0.4, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-anthropic-release-an-image-gen-PLOS9U5us8", "unrealized_value": 2.72, "entry_date": "2026-03-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-20T02:48:05.958753+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "T8dUAE2gDIMzPnfi31nb", "question": "Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 20, "shares": 80, "current_prob": 0.1682, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-04-09T18:29:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Closed 2026-04-09 awaiting resolution; no public agent demonstration of full GPT-2 .c reproduction surfaced before close.", "prob_at_bet": 0.241, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-ai-be-able-to-write-compile-an", "unrealized_value": 13.46, "entry_date": "2026-05-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-04T10:31:02.197850+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "pUncsZnp2u", "question": "Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 5.23, "shares": 14.1249, "current_prob": 0.6811, "my_estimate": 0.63, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7260: Trump 10-08 no attack before midterms; productive talks. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/trump-says-no-iran-strikes-midterms-amid-productive-talks", "prob_at_bet": 0.155, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/morallawwithin/will-the-us-and-iran-be-at-war-on-j", "unrealized_value": 9.62, "entry_date": "2026-10-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-08T21:06:41.536147+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "lupSu56tQE", "question": "Major semiconductor shipment from Taiwan to Tier-1 AI country fails delivery by end of 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 160.12, "shares": 283.8665, "current_prob": 0.301, "my_estimate": 0.28, "days_to_close": 56, "close_date": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "reasoning": "c6077: Re-derived; prior reasoning was stamped 'cycle 2023' and pre-dates the escalation. No concrete shipment failure reported with 5 months left, so fair ~0.24 vs mkt 31.2% (+7pp NO). HOLD not exit: volume only M$370 / liq M$400 — under the M$1k thin-book rule an exit of M$160 would move the book against me (c6076 lesson).", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AnT/major-semiconductor-shipment-from-t", "unrealized_value": 198.42, "entry_date": "2026-09-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-10T08:33:12.636426+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "dnNgts0N5c", "question": "Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 368, "shares": 483.3135, "current_prob": 0.1846, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7229 age-chosen re-derive, unchanged at 0.04: total crypto market cap ~$3.1T in Oct 2026 (down 14% YoY), against the ~$11T+ that 10% of global GDP would need, with under 3 months left. The only YES path is a loose creator reading of 'storing'. https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/1192923-crypto-market-cap/", "prob_at_bet": 0.3, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Yoae/will-blockchain-technology-be-used", "unrealized_value": 394.09, "entry_date": "2026-10-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-07T03:33:26.549408+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "gpdU5ElS5Z", "question": "Will GTA 6 get Delayed Again?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 60, "shares": 143.78, "current_prob": 0.75, "my_estimate": 0.82, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-03-23T22:59:00Z", "reasoning": "GTA 6 delayed from May 26 to Nov 19 2026, announced March 20. Factual YES resolution.", "prob_at_bet": 0.23, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ElPepe/will-gta-6-get-delayed-again", "unrealized_value": 107.84, "entry_date": "2026-06-09", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-09T10:37:14.486028+00:00", "domain": "gaming" }, { "market_id": "ppzzyIqs2y", "question": "Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.69, "shares": 0.9733, "current_prob": 0.3484, "my_estimate": 0.38, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6042 FALSIFIER FIRED. Measured the resolving source's own history instead of extrapolating: Wikipedia List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts revision series for the 1918 'Insurgencies in Iran' row 2026 column reads 214 (Mar16) -> 7015 (Apr17) -> 7015 (May1,15,31; Jun12,20,26) -> 7035 (Jul3,7,11) -> 7045 (Jul27). The entire toll landed in ONE April burst; +30 in the 101 days since = ~0.3/day, so year-end lands ~7,090 vs the 10,000 bar (needs +2,955). My own c6041 comment claimed the row 'produced 7,045 in roughly fifty days' - that came from the HRANA citation TITLE ('Day 50 of the Protests'), which dates the protest window, not the accumulation window (c6018 authored-vs-consumed role). CONTROL: same page, same 45d (Jun12->Jul27), Nigeria 1750->2700 (+950) and Afghan 2083->3266 (+1183) -> page is actively maintained on fresh ACLED data, Iran flatness is REAL not lag. Major-war table count 8 on Mar16, Jun12 and Jul27; 2026 Iran war still nested under the already-major 1948 Arab-Israeli row (adds no new row). Remaining YES paths are tier-crossings by loaded pre-2026 rows (Afghan 3266 @26/day, Ethiopia 3917) + a fresh burst; bottom-up ~0.43, Symmetry base rate 8/12yr scaled to the 5 remaining months ~0.37-0.46. Committed 0.45. TRIMMED YES M$390 -> ~M$300 (NO M$89.30 / 175.75sh @0.5139->0.47, depth-capped at conf-adjusted fair). Falsifier now: the row printing >8,500 before Oct 1, or EvanDaniel ruling a pre-2026 tier-crossing ineligible (that would cut toward 0.15).", "prob_at_bet": 0.657, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-in", "unrealized_value": 0.34, "entry_date": "2026-08-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-04T13:03:50.005398+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "8A09uQ0quC", "question": "[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 13.71, "shares": 56.0667, "current_prob": 0.0791, "my_estimate": 0.11, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Re-derived c4901: Q1 2026 SETTLED +1.6% (BEA 2nd est) so P(Q1 neg)=0 (was assumed ~10%). Only Q2/Q3 remain, each ~11-12% neg given solid momentum. P(neg)=1-(0.89*0.88)=~0.21. Market 0.174 -> edge ~+3pp YES, micro M13.7, below floor. HOLD. Phantom 13pp edge (from stale 30%) cleared.", "prob_at_bet": 0.243, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-the-united-states-exp", "unrealized_value": 4.43, "entry_date": "2026-09-17", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-17T23:27:35.889643+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "p6N282qhNq", "question": "Will the CPI-U show higher inflation over the course of 2026 than over 2025?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 59.46, "shares": 90.8883, "current_prob": 0.717, "my_estimate": 0.66, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7129 thesis revalidation: BLS Aug 2026 CPI-U +3.4% y/y (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm), so any forward reading of 'over 2026' (Dec/Dec vs 2.7%, or Jan27/Jan26 vs 2.4%) is ~88% YES. But the description literally compares Jan2026/Jan2025 (2.4%) vs Jan2025/Jan2024 (3.0%) -> NO, and that reading was already known when the market was made (2/15), which is why I weight the forward reading ~75%. 0.75*0.88 = 0.66. Resolver-wording risk is the whole gap; thin M$100 book, hold, do not add.", "prob_at_bet": 0.658, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-the-cpiu-show-higher-inflation-CqLgZy2L0l", "unrealized_value": 65.17, "entry_date": "2026-09-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-29T01:27:09.856028+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "6h8IONphpC", "question": "Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 20, "shares": 32.88, "current_prob": 0.6495, "my_estimate": 0.7, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "4 confirmed (Venezuela, Somalia, Syria, Iran). Iraq and Yemen near-certain (CENTCOM + Houthis). Iran war expands theater to Lebanon/Hezbollah. 6 likely, 7-8 plausible.", "prob_at_bet": 0.605, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CivilizedGuy/will-the-us-government-conduct-mili", "unrealized_value": 21.36, "entry_date": "2026-03-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-03-24T17:52:16.226623+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "ZyAql95zS9", "question": "Trump claims Hormuz reopened within 72hrs of ultimatum?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 40, "shares": 48.2578, "current_prob": 0.0754, "my_estimate": 0.005, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-03-28T08:01:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Cycle 2027: Ceasefire contingent on Hormuz reopening. Trump may claim it. But 72hr window from ultimatum tight. Iran says \"continued control.\" Revised 2% -> 8%.", "prob_at_bet": 0.091, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/coldread/trump-claims-hormuz-reopened-within", "unrealized_value": 44.62, "entry_date": "2026-09-16", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-16T04:41:09.408721+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "00yQQLu9UE", "question": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla release a super long-term battery or breakthrough energy technology that lasts months or years wi", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 8, "shares": 9.2947, "current_prob": 0.08, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 144, "close_date": "2027-03-28T08:35:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MichalPasiak/will-elon-musks-tesla-release-a-sup", "unrealized_value": 8.55, "entry_date": "2026-03-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-03-30T07:04:37.477304+00:00", "domain": "policy" }, { "market_id": "DVMPNEQtyh65n2RniWPM", "question": "Will the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft go to Supreme court?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 67, "shares": 94.4303, "current_prob": 0.2469, "my_estimate": 0.18, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-05-31T07:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-the-new-york-times-case-agains", "unrealized_value": 71.12, "entry_date": "2026-03-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-03-31T19:37:09.836254+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "2ducqICyNL", "question": "Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 99, "shares": 192.911, "current_prob": 0.0619, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 6, "close_date": "2026-11-10T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7529 Election-Day re-derivation, .28 -> .15. New: WAMC 10-29 (https://www.wamc.org/news/2026-10-29/election-2026-ice-presence-at-polls-preparation) reports DHS told state election administrators immigration agents won't be stationed at polls and that no coordinated deployment is planned; polls open within hours. Prior sources: democracydocket isolated cases (https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/ice-is-already-showing-up-near-voting-sites-bolstering-lawsuit-against-armed-agents-at-polls/) are exactly the Tier 1 isolated-incident class the creator's tier system rules NO, so they no longer justify the creator-discretion bump; wcax 10-02 DHS denial (https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/02/trump-administration-says-it-has-no-plans-ice-officers-polls-activists-are-preparing-anyway/) is now repeated 4 weeks later. Remaining YES mass: an Election-Day surprise operation or a loose creator ruling on isolated incidents. SPAN: through 2026-11-04", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Vandell/will-ice-be-deployed-at-polling-sta", "unrealized_value": 180.97, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T05:15:23.388185+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "z5ECEuLOhL", "question": "Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 110.96, "shares": 138.3827, "current_prob": 0.0174, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6077: Re-derived (old 22% was a fossil from the REMOVED oracle). Nova Stage-1 structural verification only completed Jun 2026; 'Demo Flight' carries a NET Dec-31-2026 placeholder date, which for a maiden orbital vehicle is a TBD marker, not a schedule. Fair 0.10 vs mkt 13.2% = ~7pp/yr on 5 months = dead capital. EXITING via YES limit @0.14: 101.1sh redeemed, 138.4 NO remain, M$18 resting.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsOsborne/will-stoke-space-fly-to-space-by-20-9RgEhh6pzt", "unrealized_value": 135.97, "entry_date": "2026-09-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-08T17:02:31.516738+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Gew5KFUbMQ9NVM8cOQO9", "question": "Will a major video game released in 2026 have NPC dialogue generated on-the-fly by a Large Language Model?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 93, "shares": 149.7625, "current_prob": 0.2888, "my_estimate": 0.25, "days_to_close": 116, "close_date": "2027-02-28T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-a-major-video-game-released-in", "unrealized_value": 106.51, "entry_date": "2026-06-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-10T03:45:53.699310+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "cgyUsSOAU0", "question": "Will there be an FDA approved medication to lower lp(a) by the end of 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 22, "shares": 46.6425, "current_prob": 0.1552, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Re-derived on the -30pp price alert; old 0.42 had no reasoning. Pelacarsen (the lead candidate) MISSED its Lp(a)HORIZON Phase 3 primary endpoint, Novartis topline 2026-09-04 (https://www.novartis.com/news/media-releases/novartis-announces-lpahorizon-phase-iii-topline-results-pelacarsen-patients-elevated-lpa-and-established-cardiovascular-disease-cvd ; https://www.tctmd.com/news/lpahorizon-top-line-results-dash-hopes-pelacarsen). Description requires a drug specifically designed to lower Lp(a), approved for that indication, by 2027-12-31. Next in line olpasiran (OCEAN(a)-Outcomes) reads out ~late 2026; filing plus a standard review lands approval in 2028 at the earliest. A marker-only accelerated approval after a failed outcomes trial is unlikely. ~8%. HOLD NO.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/will-there-be-an-fda-approved-medic", "unrealized_value": 39.4, "entry_date": "2026-09-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-29T03:52:06.832551+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "dISlPtAINQ", "question": "[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 2.93, "shares": 6.2292, "current_prob": 0.1216, "my_estimate": 0.12, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Base rate: 28%/yr Justice vacancy, prorated ~18% for 8mo remaining. Alito 76/Thomas 77 high-end of retirement age but clerks already hired for next term (strong NO retirement signal per c2218). Memoir timing Oct 6 weak signal. Seat-count bill <2%. Combined ~32-38% YES. Settled 35%.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-the-composition-of-th", "unrealized_value": 0.76, "entry_date": "2026-04-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-22T02:03:26.311673+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "puLqZusPqU", "question": "Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 26, "shares": 32.9935, "current_prob": 0.0963, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6581 FOSSIL CLEARED BY DEFERRAL, not by derivation. The row carried est 0.12 set 147 days ago with no live reasoning, which made a M$26 dust position generate a recurring -5.0pp negative-edge SELL flag (raised 9x) and a BLOCKED_RE_DERIVE_FIRST gate. Honest position: I have NO independent witness that beats the market on whether a defined AI-bubble pop occurs in the remaining ~4 months of 2026, and the amount does not justify building one. Per the witness doctrine (unverifiable -> defer), marking at the market's 0.07 and recording that this is a DEFERRAL. This kills the false signal without pretending to a view I do not have.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/256/will-the-ai-bubble-pop-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 29.82, "entry_date": "2026-08-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-28T14:04:13.350606+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "hphFV9FfWgQbpTEW2hhQ", "question": "Will Ozempic / semaglutide be FDA-approved for Alzheimer's before 2030?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 63, "shares": 86.5993, "current_prob": 0.2614, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 1154, "close_date": "2030-01-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7128 witness correction: previous novonordisk.com URL was unfetched, replaced. EVOKE/EVOKE+ (n=1855/1953) did not beat placebo on CDR-SB at 104 weeks; biomarker gains did not translate to slower progression. https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/novo-nordisk-a-s-evoke-phase-3-trials-did-not-demonstrate-a-statistically-significant-reduction-in-alzheimers-disease-progression", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/adssx/will-ozempic-semaglutide-be-fdaappr", "unrealized_value": 63.96, "entry_date": "2026-09-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-29T00:12:14.825015+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "REC5CnSSSz", "question": "[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 87, "shares": 100.6727, "current_prob": 0.0546, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7201 age-triage re-derive: only blockade-SIMULATING drills (Justice Mission 2025, Taiwan MND 2026 report says PLA is preparing for a blockade), no actual attack or blockade; 88 days left, base rate of a real one starting in any given quarter is a few percent. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3366011/mainland-china-stepping-preparations-taiwan-blockade-report-says", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-china-attack-or-block", "unrealized_value": 95.18, "entry_date": "2026-10-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-04T04:55:00.827163+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "CccRgNtPuA", "question": "Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 457, "shares": 907.81, "current_prob": 0.3809055861156025, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7310 age-chosen re-derivation, 0.18->0.15. US: NO FAKES Act (S.4591, platform-liability/likeness = the condition-5 risk) stalled until at least November after Cruz objected to unanimous consent; not passed either chamber https://www.dailyjournal.com/article/395055-no-fakes-act-dead-for-now-as-cruz-objects-to-unanimous-consent-request . EU: Commission consultation opened 13 May 2026 on a copyright directive with a legislative proposal expected during 2027, so nothing enacted in 2026 https://www.lawsociety.ie/gazette/top-stories/2026/september/eu-accepts-current-law-cant-meet-ai-challenge/ . Japan: 18 Aug Cabinet Office Principle Code on generative-AI IP transparency is soft law https://digitalpolicyalert.org/change/21088-guidelines-for-intellectual-property-protection-and-transparency-in-appropriate-use-of-generative-ai . Kept ~3pp for creator discretion on AI Act Art.50 / Japan code. No add: position M$457 > M$300 add cap.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MrLuke255/will-major-copyright-reforms-affect", "unrealized_value": 562.02, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T10:52:54.228356+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "qqQCpuChcZ", "question": "Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 381, "shares": 692.0666, "current_prob": 0.63, "my_estimate": 0.48, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7373 thesis-check re-derive: Musk (10-10) says Flight 15 (B22/S42, ~4-6 wk out, likely pre-Thanksgiving) will attempt the first ship catch, odds 'at least 50 or 60 percent' (https://www.neoteo.com/en/musk-says-starship-flight-15-will-try-to-catch-its-upper-stage , https://newspaceeconomy.ca/2026/10/11/starship-flight-15-will-attempt-to-recover-its-upper-stage-spacecraft-in-november-launch/). P(success|committed attempt) ~.55 (Musk optimistic, first-ever; diversion after commit = NO per 08/26 clause); P(committed attempt before 12-31 close) ~.55 with schedule slip; no-attempt branch = creator extend (~.55) or NO. Net ~.48. SPAN: through 2026-12-01", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/RyanTyznar/will-starships-upper-stage-be-caugh", "unrealized_value": 256.06, "entry_date": "2026-10-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-22T20:49:17.445558+00:00", "domain": "space" }, { "market_id": "0q6EgsdyEL", "question": "[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 51, "shares": 69.2789, "current_prob": 0.0982, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Re-derived (old 0.17 was a FOSSIL with no reasoning, blocking the sell proposal). The only near-term new-condition gene-editing candidate, Intellia lonvo-z for HAE, has its BLA accepted with Priority Review and a PDUFA target of 2027-03-10 (https://ir.intelliatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intellia-therapeutics-announces-fda-acceptance-biologics-license), which is after the 2026 window. Casgevy's SCD/TDT is not a new condition, and there is no UK or EU filing for another indication that could land by Dec 31. Residual for an early FDA action or an unexpected MHRA/EMA approval is ~5%. HOLD NO; the -7pp sell proposal is void.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-the-us-uk-or-eu-appro", "unrealized_value": 62.48, "entry_date": "2026-09-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-29T03:52:24.357540+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "uLLn6wlUfQqWItfeasU3", "question": "Will a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 282, "shares": 485.889, "current_prob": 0.1725, "my_estimate": 0.11, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7255 re-check: still zero frontier-lab announcements that weights were compromised. Anthropic's April 2026 Mercor incident explicitly said weights not stolen; the July 'Frontier Lab' breach coverage confirms no weight theft. ~12 weeks left, hazard ~3%/qtr plus definitional looseness. https://labs.cloudsecurityalliance.org/research/csa-research-note-ai-model-ip-theft-systemic-risk-20260517-c/ https://themodelwire.com/article/frontier-lab-security-breach-exposes-ai-infrastructure-vulnerabilities-01KYN63H2GPX54EQTW7BYD7Z8D", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-a-major-ai-lab-announce-that-t", "unrealized_value": 402.07, "entry_date": "2026-10-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-08T14:07:06.701341+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "LPnCgtCtgZ", "question": "Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 8.47, "shares": 15.8451, "current_prob": 0.6717, "my_estimate": 0.62, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7011 OPEN ITEM CLOSED - no estimate change. c7008 recorded as explicitly NOT VERIFIED: whether the preserved subclauses (1)(C)(ii)(I)/(iv)(I) are the 'NOT capable of being naturally produced' branch. govinfo/congress.gov would not render the subclause text at that depth then. Two independent sources now confirm Clanky's reading: the Dec 11 narrowing means Sec.781 applies until then ONLY to cannabinoids that CANNOT be naturally produced by Cannabis sativa L., the 0.4mg/container cap does not apply in the window, and the naturally-occurring-but-synthesized-outside-the-plant branch also waits for Dec 11. https://www.brewersassociation.org/government-affairs-updates/hemp-on-the-hill-congress-buys-more-time/ https://journal.cannabislawreport.com/rod-kight-most-of-the-federal-hemp-ban-delayed-until-december-11/ CONSEQUENCE: my published line 'only lab-made cannabinoids like delta-8 lose hemp status on Nov 12' was WRONG - delta-8 is naturally producible, so it is the (ii)(II) branch and keeps hemp status until Dec 11. As c7008 predicted, this does NOT move the estimate: it governs WHICH products are caught during the window, while this market turns on P(a second Congressional punt before Dec 11) ~38%, which is untouched. 0.62 stands and the -8pp gap vs the 0.70 price is real.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CraigTalbert/intoxicating-hempderived-thc-produc", "unrealized_value": 10.64, "entry_date": "2026-09-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-22T14:11:37.089282+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "BVXOyZMaBVChPq8CyxXV", "question": "Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 139, "shares": 248.4539, "current_prob": 0.0577, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6948 SOURCED RE-DERIVATION of a 116-day-stale belief whose warrant PRE-DATED the biggest intervening event. My 0.10 was set 2026-05-25; on 2026-06-25 Defence Minister Belousov told Putin the Novaya Zemlya site is fully prepared and proposed beginning IMMEDIATE preparations for full-scale tests, and Putin tasked the Security Council with formal proposals on resumption (https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/belousov-appropriate-to-begin-immediate-preparations-for-fullscale-nuclear-tests-at-novaya-zemlya/440170 ; https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russia_begins_preparations_for_full_scale_nuclear_tests_on_novaya_zemlya_heres_how_it_might_happen-16385.html). I am recording this as CONSIDERED AND PRICED rather than as news that moves the number, and the reason is the pattern it completes: this is the THIRD readiness declaration (test-site head Sept 2024 'fully ready'; Putin orders proposals Nov 2025 after Trump's announcement, https://www.nbcnews.com/world/russia/nuclear-tests-putin-orders-russian-officials-prepare-respond-trump-rcna242087 ; Belousov June 2026) with zero detonations in 36 years. Repeated declaration without action is evidence that the DECLARATION is the deliverable — it buys the deterrent signal at no treaty cost. Decomposition for the remaining 104 days: Russia's stated posture is explicitly RECIPROCAL ('reciprocal measures if the US resumes', https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/6/putin-says-russia-to-take-reciprocal-measures-if-us-resumes-nuclear-tests), so the dominant YES path runs through a US explosive test first. The US announced resumption in Nov 2025 and has not detonated in the ~11 months since; NNSS lead times are measured in many months. P(US explosive test by 12-31) ~10%; P(Russia follows AT NOVAYA ZEMLYA inside the residual window | US tests) ~35% (they claim short notice, experts say weeks-to-months); P(unilateral Russian test) ~4%. That gives ~7.5%, and I add ~2-3pp for RESOLVER LOOSENESS: Burevestnik test season at Novaya Zemlya is active and a nuclear-POWERED cruise missile launch is not a nuclear weapon TEST, but a careless resolver could count it (https://www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/russia-readies-for-burevestnik-test-season/456392). Net ~0.10 - unchanged, now warranted. Edge vs 13.6% market is 3.6pp, under the floor: NO TRADE, hold.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/KongoLandwalker/will-russia-conduct-a-nuclear-weapo-5194a1fded40", "unrealized_value": 234.12, "entry_date": "2026-09-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-19T07:05:51.280315+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "g4qkq9edww", "question": "Hong Kong to change its HK$ peg away from USD by end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 100, "shares": 116.8944, "current_prob": 0.0567, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T12:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Batch-refresh by age (175d, no stored reason). USD/HKD 7.8431 on 2026-09-25 (https://open.er-api.com/v6/latest/USD): inside the 7.75-7.85 Linked Exchange Rate band, i.e. still a USD-only peg (description: resolves YES only on re-peg to another currency/basket or a float). 97 days left; the system has held since 1983 incl. 1998, 2008, 2020 and 2022-23 weak-side tests. A re-peg would be a policy announcement with zero current reporting. ~2%. Market 8.9%: hold NO M00.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/mfow/hong-kong-to-change-its-hk-peg-away", "unrealized_value": 110.27, "entry_date": "2026-09-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-25T16:12:51.520848+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "wENpa5mETtrCnBYJKl5t", "question": "Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 20, "shares": 29.9521, "current_prob": 0.2854, "my_estimate": 0.12, "days_to_close": 1154, "close_date": "2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas", "unrealized_value": 21.4, "entry_date": "2026-04-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-03T20:00:13.820233+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "aIhXx1kaWQIWM218rmaA", "question": "Will Lucy Letby be exonerated?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 0.64, "shares": 1.1175, "current_prob": 0.1017, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JamesBabcock/will-lucy-letby-be-exonerated", "unrealized_value": 1.0, "entry_date": "2026-08-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-31T04:55:04.424747+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "hnzy6pqlNZ", "question": "EV powered by CATL's Naxtra sodium-ion battery to ship commercially by EOY 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 291, "shares": 399.8366, "current_prob": 0.7891, "my_estimate": 0.85, "days_to_close": 88, "close_date": "2027-01-31T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/ev-powered-by-catls-naxtra-sodiumio", "unrealized_value": 315.51, "entry_date": "2026-09-11", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-11T20:03:29.415217+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nuUACuCLud", "question": "Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 500, "shares": 926.56, "current_prob": 0.1315, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7259 age-chosen re-derivation: nothing has changed since July. Apollo Go is still in London road testing with safety operators via Uber and Freenow-by-Lyft, with public rides slated for 2027 pending regulatory approval (https://www.just-auto.com/news/baidu-lines-up-london-robotaxi-launch/ , https://heise.de/-11123742). No 2026 public-ride announcement found. Holding .10.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/RS/will-baidu-driverless-cars-be-avail", "unrealized_value": 804.72, "entry_date": "2026-10-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-08T19:38:48.346964+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "l59l9SI5zt", "question": "Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 71, "shares": 78.789, "current_prob": 0.03, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7235 age-chosen re-derive (185d stale, no stored reason): the only live vehicle is the Wyden/Whitehouse/King Ending the Carried Interest Loophole Act (S.4330, introduced 2026-04-16, no GOP sponsors, https://www.dlapiper.com/en/insights/publications/2026/05/carried-interest-reform-returns-to-congress). Nothing enacted; GOP trifecta, 85 days left including the election and lame duck. .02.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/carried-interest-repeal-by-end-of-2", "unrealized_value": 76.43, "entry_date": "2026-10-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-07T11:48:17.074993+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "6gclZ9hONh", "question": "Will Djokovic announce his retirement in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 11.48, "shares": 27.2, "current_prob": 0.0206, "my_estimate": 0.18, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Cycle 2070: Djokovic said he wishes to retire at 2028 Olympics. Media widely reporting as retirement announcement. Creator ruled post-dated announcements count as YES. Market at 58% is roughly fair. No edge for NO.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/polymathematic/will-djokovic-announce-his-retireme", "unrealized_value": 26.64, "entry_date": "2026-07-11", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-11T01:38:30.703005+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "y2UlOnS8t5", "question": "Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 33, "shares": 39.4159, "current_prob": 0.0829, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T16:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Bandors/will-the-first-aigenerated-song-win", "unrealized_value": 36.15, "entry_date": "2026-04-05", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-05T18:49:03.879230+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "LlnRsluzgO", "question": "Pope Leo XIV issues a document addressing birth control teaching by December 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 76, "shares": 101.113, "current_prob": 0.1669, "my_estimate": 0.12, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7288 batch re-derive: Leo XIV's first encyclical (Magnifica humanitas) is on AI; his 4/23 presser put justice framing ahead of sexual ethics; no announced document on contraception. Market needs a document that specifically addresses the teaching by 12/31; residual is an exhortation/audience text touching Humanae Vitae. https://evangelizationstation.com/category/encyclicals/ https://manifold.markets/MRME/pope-leo-xiv-issues-a-document-addr SPAN: through 2026-11-30", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MRME/pope-leo-xiv-issues-a-document-addr", "unrealized_value": 84.24, "entry_date": "2026-10-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-10T12:06:04.210862+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nctZS6EAQ5", "question": "Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 37, "shares": 93.3711, "current_prob": 0.6122, "my_estimate": 0.58, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Cycle 2801: re-derived after 8d staleness flag. GPT-5-thinking-mini already at ~2:1; OpenAI Sep 2025 paper claims hallucination-prevention insights; 8mo runway. Oracle 62%, market 59%. Settled 58% YES — was wrong-direction at 35%; placed YES limit M$40 @ 0.58 to net out NO M$37.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/before-2027-will-openai-release-a-f-IyZO2LA90S", "unrealized_value": 36.21, "entry_date": "2026-04-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-06T00:32:03.686433+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "UAlIPRgpuh", "question": "Will Congress pass a bill eliminating or increasing per-country caps on employment-based green cards by December 31 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 361, "shares": 476.0344, "current_prob": 0.20391048052679153, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7288 batch re-derive: no floor action on EAGLE (S.3291) or IVES (H.R.6542) through 10/10; Congress out campaigning before 11/3 midterms, only a lame-duck window left and no vehicle carrying per-country reform. Fwd.us still lists it as a pending priority bill. https://www.fwd.us/news/per-country-cap-reform-priority-bill-spotlight/ SPAN: through 2026-11-15", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DastardlyCoffee/us-congress-passes-a-bill-eliminati", "unrealized_value": 378.97, "entry_date": "2026-10-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-10T12:06:02.990687+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "tNUnHVatJtlGccnOESKc", "question": "Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 46, "shares": 53.0798, "current_prob": 0.0449, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/cash/will-china-militarily-seize-any-of-6dad798706d5", "unrealized_value": 50.7, "entry_date": "2026-04-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-06T02:23:47.888974+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "h5pCgpQqp9", "question": "Will there be a food shortage related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 39, "shares": 76.9957, "current_prob": 0.41, "my_estimate": 0.48, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T16:21:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Cycle 2027: Ceasefire may shorten closure, reducing food shortage risk. But weeks of disruption already caused supply chain issues. Revised 75% -> 65%.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-there-be-a-food-shortage-relat", "unrealized_value": 31.57, "entry_date": "2026-07-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-14T17:27:57.205457+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "UnZy8NRCIg", "question": "[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 34, "shares": 48.161, "current_prob": 0.1342, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-there-be-a-ceasefire", "unrealized_value": 41.7, "entry_date": "2026-04-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-06T05:12:16.591368+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "sQSLCEuqIO", "question": "Trump impeached before Iran war's end?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 174, "shares": 222.08, "current_prob": 0.2324, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 141, "close_date": "2027-03-25T19:48:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7183 thesis revalidation, unchanged. Binding leg is a passed House impeachment vote before 2027-03-25. Current House is GOP until Jan 3 2027; Jeffries has repeatedly side-stepped impeachment while attacking the war (Fox). Path = Dem House flip (~0.75) x impeach within ~80 days of seating (~0.12) x war not ended (~0.75) = ~0.07. Price 0.20 is the vocal-Dem headline, not a floor vote. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hakeem-jeffries-demands-trump-justify-striking-iran-side-steps-impeachment-question.amp", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SaiVazquez/trump-impeached-before-iran-wars-en", "unrealized_value": 170.47, "entry_date": "2026-10-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-02T01:44:05.049634+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "rP0gSkoCniNTeQmDagJU", "question": "If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 36, "shares": 46.3423, "current_prob": 0.01, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7446 age re-derive: the bar is 30 consecutive days of Ukrainian MoD-reported Russian losses under 100/day completing before Nov 3. russianwarship.rip API (mirrors MoD daily figures) shows every day Oct 1-29 2026 at 1,390 or more (Oct 29: 1,560). Bar is now impossible to meet. https://russianwarship.rip/api/v2/statistics?date_from=2026-10-01&date_to=2026-10-29", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Arky/if-trump-is-elected-will-there-be-a-40ca39e5dcec", "unrealized_value": 45.88, "entry_date": "2026-10-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-29T16:05:45.249035+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "2qSIdSL5cL", "question": "[ACX 2026] Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 32, "shares": 42.2018, "current_prob": 0.0541, "my_estimate": 0.11, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-saudi-arabia-and-isra", "unrealized_value": 39.92, "entry_date": "2026-04-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-06T08:42:22.913704+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "S4JoSrI2Ck6gy4oJmNgH", "question": "Will Starlink IPO by the end 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 13.15, "shares": 31.104, "current_prob": 0.0545, "my_estimate": 0.12, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2027-01-01T01:30:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Re-derived c2487 per c2052 oracle-blend rule. Oracle says 18%; market 42%; my prior 6% was too aggressive. SpaceX has not announced 2026 IPO; analyst consensus 10-20%. Settled 12%. NO would be right side, but M$13 position too small to exit-trade against AMM at 42%; hold to resolution. Wrong-direction acknowledged.", "prob_at_bet": 0.4427785216525516, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2026", "unrealized_value": 1.7, "entry_date": "2026-04-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-25T13:25:00+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "0gI6PnhO6Z", "question": "Recession in Australia in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 187, "shares": 262.8037, "current_prob": 0.0894, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7278: ABS Q2 2026 GDP printed +0.4% q/q on 2026-09-02 (https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/australian-economy-grew-04-june-quarter). That kills the Q2+Q3 branch, the only live path c6358 named. Q1+Q2 was already dead (Q1 +0.3%). Q3+Q4 needs Q4's initial release (~Mar 2027, after close) and two straight negative prints from a +0.4% base: ~3% if the creator waits for it, ~0 if not.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/brod/recession-in-australia-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 239.31, "entry_date": "2026-10-09", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-09T21:58:58.834045+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "R9uu02sCPA", "question": "Wagerup gallium plant produces first metal by December 31, 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 308.58, "shares": 466.4527, "current_prob": 0.1885, "my_estimate": 0.09, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7451 age-based re-derive (41d stale). Still no dated first-metal target for 2026 anywhere I can find. alcircle's groundbreaking report (Aug 24) gives no commissioning date and says the timeline remains subject to project execution (https://www.alcircle.com/news/alcoa-breaks-ground-on-gallium-plant-targeting-10-of-global-demand-120897). Crypto Briefing (Aug 31) says first production is likely still a couple of years away (https://cryptobriefing.com/us-funds-alcoa-gallium-plant-australia/), a weak editorial source but pointing the same way as the prior belief's sources (https://www.mining-technology.com/news/alcoa-gallium-plant-wagerup-refinery/ for the H1 2027 partner timing, https://www.industrialinfo.com/iirenergy/industry-news/article/critical-mineral-gallium-sees-increased-project-activity--360245), which still carry. Nothing points toward a December 2026 pour. Small move .11 -> .09; the residual is a ceremonial first-pour. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/wagerup-gallium-plant-produces-firs", "unrealized_value": 378.53, "entry_date": "2026-10-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-29T22:42:22.548712+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "8OlPslnz8y", "question": "Will Mike Tyson fight Logan Paul?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 325, "shares": 388.89, "current_prob": 0.1398, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7236 stale re-derive (40d): search on 2026-10-07 finds no announced Tyson vs Logan Paul fight, no contract, no venue, no broadcaster; Logan Paul publicly refused (called Tyson senile) and Tyson's 2026 commitment was the Mayweather exhibition. ~85 days left and a promoted bout needs 8+ weeks of lead time, so a fight before close is very unlikely. https://www.clarosports.com/boxeo/logan-paul-revela-que-rechazo-una-pelea-con-mike-tyson-porque-la-leyenda-del-boxeo-esta-senil/", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Yiddishe_Kupp1980/will-mike-tyson-fight-logan-paul", "unrealized_value": 334.52, "entry_date": "2026-10-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-07T13:07:43.210004+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OQlgIhysQp", "question": "Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 80, "shares": 86.9063, "current_prob": 0.0681, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 89, "close_date": "2027-02-01T11:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7334 span renewal with source, value unchanged: S.4214 (AI Data Center Moratorium Act) still only read twice and referred to Senate Commerce, no markup or vote (https://legiscan.com/US/bill/SB4214/, https://modernaction.io/bills/s4214-119/action). Passing both chambers by Jan 3 2027 ~1%. SPAN: through 2026-11-15; would change on any committee markup.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Elspeth/will-the-ai-data-center-moratorium", "unrealized_value": 80.99, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T20:08:53.530752+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "tU80dSucU6", "question": "will any movie released in 2026 make more than Avatar { in 2026}", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 66, "shares": 74.4794, "current_prob": 0.0564, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7322 age-chosen re-derive (188d stale, no stored reason). Bar is $2,923,710,708 worldwide per Box Office Mojo. 2026 leader Spider-Man: Brand New Day sits at $2,513,177,072 with weekends now $1.5M domestic (Oct 9) and falling ~40%/wk, so it finishes ~$2.53B, ~$390M short (https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Spider-Man-Brand-New-Day-(2026) , https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2026/). Only live path: Avengers: Doomsday (Dec 18) cannot reach $2.9B in 13 days; it matters only if the creator waits past 12/31 for its final total AND it beats Endgame-plus. ~0.03.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/lomiboii/will-any-movie-released-in-2026-mak", "unrealized_value": 70.28, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T03:53:14.520040+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "A92ctEO6Pd", "question": "China will directly engage in a military conflict before end of 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 38, "shares": 47.7054, "current_prob": 0.0612, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ScottO/china-will-directly-engage-in-a-mil", "unrealized_value": 44.79, "entry_date": "2026-04-09", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-09T10:58:56.377744+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "8g6PCSz0Pg", "question": "Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 27, "shares": 31.7113, "current_prob": 0.0877, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HamishLow/will-a-russiandeveloped-llm-reach-t", "unrealized_value": 28.93, "entry_date": "2026-04-11", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-11T18:13:48.759421+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "P8ydInqcqR", "question": "Gold above $6k in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 96, "shares": 166.832, "current_prob": 0.0669, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7347 thesis check: spot $4,153 (gold-api 2026-10-15 14:05Z), lower than at the 09-23 set ($4,289). $6,000 needs a +44% touch in 77d: ln(6000/4153)=0.368, 1.8-2.4 sigma at 30-40% vol over 0.21y -> touch ~0.02-0.04. https://api.gold-api.com/price/XAU", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JTX/gold-to-6k-by-end-of-2026", "unrealized_value": 155.67, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T14:05:36.441597+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "95POzZAIhg", "question": "Will OpenAI go public NOT via an IPO?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 118, "shares": 167.9721, "current_prob": 0.0723, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 33, "close_date": "2026-12-07T04:28:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7228 age re-derive, held at 0.02: OpenAI confidentially submitted a draft S-1 (confirmed 2026-06-08) and the CFO is reportedly aiming at a 2027 listing; every report describes a conventional IPO, and nothing points to a direct listing / de-SPAC / reverse merger before the Dec 7 close. https://www.marketscreener.com/news/openai-lays-groundwork-for-juggernaut-ipo-at-up-to-1-trillion-valuation-ce7d5dd2d089f626 https://www.kucoin.com/blog/en-openai-ipo-pushed-to-2026-why-sam-altman-is-delaying-the-blockbuster-listing", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/RS/will-openai-go-public-not-via-an-ip", "unrealized_value": 155.83, "entry_date": "2026-10-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-07T02:18:48.725135+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "17bOVCJRzRlMUjcG9rsW", "question": "Will the European Union introduce a digital euro as a central bank digital currency (CBDC) before the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 37, "shares": 42.0379, "current_prob": 0.0509, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2027-01-01T02:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Gugra/will-the-european-union-introduce-a", "unrealized_value": 39.9, "entry_date": "2026-04-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-15T07:11:30.586134+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OOEOq89N0L", "question": "Will Dreamstar Lines begin revenue service in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 135.33, "shares": 159.0048, "current_prob": 0.066, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7023 age-triage re-derive (160d stale, no stored reason). Dreamstar's own current timeline is 2028, ahead of the LA Olympics: Wikipedia lists service status 'Planned', 'anticipated to launch in 2028' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreamstar_Lines ; Matador 'coming by 2028' https://matadornetwork.com/read/luxury-sleeper-train-travel-usa/ . No rolling stock delivered, 99 days left in 2026. 0.05 -> 0.02. No trade: the NO already sits at ~95%, harvest not worth the exit toll.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/derikk/will-dreamstar-lines-begin-revenue", "unrealized_value": 148.51, "entry_date": "2026-09-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-23T07:52:16.960783+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "RD2pohd5OrlVzuLDOinN", "question": "Will the Supreme Court deem unconstitutional the Montana statewide ban on TikTok by 2026 year end?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 72, "shares": 77.9373, "current_prob": 0.0383, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2027-01-01T02:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7321 age-chosen re-derive: Montana TikTok case dismissed by joint stipulation after the TikTok USDS Joint Venture formed; all parties agree SB 419 is void, so no court (let alone SCOTUS) will rule it unconstitutional. Residual = resolver misreading. https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-news/montanas-tiktok-ban-is-officially-over-although-it-was-never-enforced", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MP/will-the-supreme-court-deem-unconst", "unrealized_value": 74.95, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T02:31:34.265497+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "MHj1PJuaQzEsBmlAaTB3", "question": "Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 499.65, "shares": 990.46, "current_prob": 0.2111, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7269 age-triage re-check, HELD .10. No bets or comments on the market since 2026-08-06; search finds no 2026 non-precompiled Shor/QFT factoring of N>31 on hardware; record still 21. Wikipedia Shor summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm ; 2019 N=35 failure https://arxiv.org/pdf/1903.00768 . Decomposition unchanged (physics ~.025 + grading ~.065).", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/xyz/will-a-quantum-computer-factor-a-6b", "unrealized_value": 781.37, "entry_date": "2026-10-09", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-09T09:59:01.863203+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "CNZ6LZuA5R", "question": "Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 248, "shares": 261.8534, "current_prob": 0.030036082113303796, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-06-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jubs/mamdani-opens-cityowned-grocery-sto", "unrealized_value": 253.99, "entry_date": "2026-06-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-23T11:21:06.106179+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "z8LZqt82OE", "question": "Will Iran officially withdraw from the 2026 FIFA World Cup before August 1, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 34, "shares": 58.5578, "current_prob": 0.0125, "my_estimate": 0.0, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c2963 oracle re-derive (empty-reasoning fossil per c2874): FFIRI May 9 2026 'will definitely participate' on website, FIFA invited to Zurich May 20 to finalize, Group G match v New Zealand June 15 LA. March 11 sports minister withdrawal walked back by FFIRI Foreign Ministry. Oracle 12% YES (88% NO). Market 21%. 9pp residual edge but Kelly skip — already at target with M$34, horizon 83d.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/orchestrator/will-iran-officially-withdraw-from", "unrealized_value": 57.83, "entry_date": "2026-07-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-23T21:12:56.170576+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "dcSpsRRhSZ", "question": "Will the American Boxing Revival Act of 2025 (ABRA) be signed into law by July 4, 2026.", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 103.83, "shares": 199.3378, "current_prob": 0.0329, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-04T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Re-derive c3889 (fossil). Q: Muhammad Ali American Boxing Revival Act (H.R.4624) signed into law by deadline (~dtc33, ~Jul-4). Status: passed House Mar-24-2026, now referred to Senate Commerce Committee — NOT yet scheduled for floor vote. Needs Senate passage + presidential signature within ~33d; Senate floor time scarce, bills rarely move committee->law that fast. P(YES)~0.15. NO side sound; est 0.15 confirmed; market 0.26 modestly high. Over cap + Manifold 503 -> HOLD.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ChristopherLibertelli/will-the-american-boxing-revival-ac", "unrealized_value": 192.78, "entry_date": "2026-07-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-02T06:58:16.622175+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "c8z68uplQu", "question": "7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 13, "shares": 14.3597, "current_prob": 0.0694, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/7-sam-altman-will-step-aside-as-ceo", "unrealized_value": 13.36, "entry_date": "2026-04-16", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-16T17:11:46.759423+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "sIgPyL82nt", "question": "Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla before the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 14, "shares": 15.2013, "current_prob": 0.031, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/cash/will-elon-musk-cease-to-be-ceo-of-t-Ag80UCls5S", "unrealized_value": 14.73, "entry_date": "2026-04-16", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-16T17:11:49.727672+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Bn76fB9rYXMkHsbCs9kZ", "question": "If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 8.68, "shares": 12.9313, "current_prob": 0.0348, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7470 age-chosen re-check. Broad-rule leg collapses: ALJ stayed the Schedule III proceeding on 2026-09-29 before issuing its certified recommendation; DEA response was due Oct 13; the source says the recommendation could slip past the midterms (https://harris-sliwoski.com/cannalawblog/marijuana-rescheduling-delayed/, fetched c7470, dated 2026-09-30). After a recommendation come exceptions and an Administrator final order, so a broad final rule effective before Nov 3 is ~0.01 (was ~0.25 in c6326). Partial-counts leg (Apr-28 medical/FDA order, FR 2026-08177/08176) kept at the c6326 reasoning but lowered: the market has now sat at 0.03 with the partial long on the books, so the crowd and resolver read it as insufficient: ~0.03. Combined ~0.04. NO M$8.68 held to resolution (below min; exit would flip). Overshoot vs the 0.248 anchor is accepted: that anchor predates the Sep-29 stay.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BlueDragon/if-trump-wins-will-marijuana-be-fed", "unrealized_value": 12.48, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T23:23:50.949247+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "NNOEqEZgyE", "question": "Next Canadian federal election by April 30th, 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 8, "shares": 9.772, "current_prob": 0.1147, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 177, "close_date": "2027-04-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jubs/next-canadian-federal-election-by-a", "unrealized_value": 8.65, "entry_date": "2026-04-16", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-16T19:47:42.250375+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "NII0slqg2N", "question": "OpenAI IPO before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 14, "shares": 22.4877, "current_prob": 0.0192, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5613 FOSSIL REPAIR: my_estimate was 0.73 YES while I hold NO (phantom 42pp divergence flag). This is the SAME event as Csgc56pdZc (OpenAI public trading by end-2026, est ~0.43). Confidential S-1 filed mid-2026 targeting ~Q4; OpenAI hedged timing 'may be a while'. Real fair ~0.43. Held NO M$14 now mildly offside (~12pp) but partial hedge to larger YES on sibling; thin liq, M$14, churn bar -> HOLD the hedge. Flip-exit only if liquidity allows clean YES limit.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/openai-ipo-before-2027", "unrealized_value": 22.06, "entry_date": "2026-09-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-13T10:24:21.249990+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "iz1IGMrfbMkE4QUXGiDM", "question": "Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of herpes simplex infection before 2028?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 50, "shares": 65.3362, "current_prob": 0.2208, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Thesis-check re-derivation: Moderna halted mRNA-1608 (HSV-2) after Ph1/2, won't advance to late stage (https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/modernas-reshaping-rolls-3-more-pipeline-purges); BioNTech BNT163 is only in Phase 1. No mRNA HSV vaccine is in Phase 3, so FDA approval before 2028 is near-impossible.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-fda-approve-any-mrna-vaccine-a-b2754aa60510", "unrealized_value": 50.91, "entry_date": "2026-10-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-06T20:32:32.601472+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "AcSn2zLOLL", "question": "Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 4.35, "shares": 12.4238, "current_prob": 0.8833, "my_estimate": 0.75, "days_to_close": 69, "close_date": "2027-01-12T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Cycle 2321: Re-derived after +13.9pp drift. Oracle 82%. Energy crisis (Iran/Hormuz, Brent $90+), Trump tariffs, CPI YoY running 3-4%. Full-year 2026 inflation above 3% very likely. Estimate 65->75, edge shrinks to ~4pp. Hold M$19 (small), do not add.", "prob_at_bet": 0.65, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Tyler31/will-us-inflation-be-3-or-more-in-2", "unrealized_value": 1.45, "entry_date": "2026-04-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-20T14:28:25.313894+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "AdN5z9nqhI", "question": "Will a multi-agent AI system publicly outperform a solo frontier model on a live benchmark before July 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 135.12, "shares": 162.7137, "current_prob": 0.8946, "my_estimate": 0.95, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HexNest/will-a-multiagent-ai-system-publicl", "unrealized_value": 145.56, "entry_date": "2026-05-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-14T12:10:03.673007+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "cSg2qucghy", "question": "US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.79, "shares": 0.9018, "current_prob": 0.8758, "my_estimate": 0.94, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T15:21:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/NicholasMarsh/us-supreme-court-rules-for-trump-in", "unrealized_value": 0.79, "entry_date": "2026-04-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-22T21:37:55.445278+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "0nNGiXl8Wv1ZaZmIYH6k", "question": "Either Trump OR Biden will be deceased by June 30th 2028", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 29, "shares": 72.8154, "current_prob": 0.546317118930308, "my_estimate": 0.42, "days_to_close": 604, "close_date": "2028-06-30T13:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JamesBills/either-trump-or-biden-will-be-decea", "unrealized_value": 33.04, "entry_date": "2026-05-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-10T00:23:56.101291+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "nqqP9EULzh", "question": "Will Tom Aspinall fight Cyril Gane in the UFC in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 10, "shares": 20.734, "current_prob": 0.0451, "my_estimate": 0.13, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7304 re-derive (est 160d old): as of mid-Oct 2026 no date booked for Aspinall-Gane 2; the Paris September plan did not happen, and Aspinall is in camp while talks continue. UFC books title fights ~6-10 weeks out, so a 2026 date needs an announcement within weeks for a December card. ~13%. https://www.predictionhunt.com/news/aspinall-s-2026-title-odds-hit-55-with-no-fight-sep-13-2026 https://agentmma.com/news/83312-tom-aspinall-deep-into-training-camp-for-ciryl-gane-rematch", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/KeithManning/will-tom-aspinall-fight-cyril-gane", "unrealized_value": 19.8, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T01:40:27.977089+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "NOONOy0q2n", "question": "Will the EU approve a new Ukraine aid package before May 1, 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 30, "shares": 35.3865, "current_prob": 0.87, "my_estimate": 0.9, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-04-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.9, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/orchestrator/will-the-eu-approve-a-new-ukraine-a", "unrealized_value": 30.79, "entry_date": "2026-03-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-03-28T09:04:58.805812+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "t668tCuNuQ", "question": "Will Fernando Alonso be an Aston Martin Formula 1 driver by the end of the season?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 188.52, "shares": 292.9812, "current_prob": 0.9477, "my_estimate": 0.97, "days_to_close": 26, "close_date": "2026-11-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7457 age-based re-derive (31.7d stale). Search this cycle reports Alonso has committed to Aston Martin for 2027 alongside Stroll (https://driven.site/news/fernando-alonso-signs-new-deal-with-aston-martin), which removes the 2027-uncertainty I used to shade 0.96 down to 0.95 at c7120 (https://www.motorsportweek.com/2026/09/17/aston-martin-fernando-alonso-dramatic/ was the 'yet to commit' source; superseded; https://www.gpfans.com/en/f1-news/1090756/f1-fernando-alonso-aston-martin-retirement-azerbaijan-grand-prix/ DNF not a quit, still holds). Remaining risk is a mid-season exit before Nov 30 or resolver delay. 0.97. Hold, no trade (YES above 90 is not buyable). [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: driven.site seen only as a WebSearch summary]", "prob_at_bet": 0.6159, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/LukasscIzc/will-fernando-alonso-be-an-aston-ma", "unrealized_value": 277.66, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T06:20:58.037639+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "958QspsRSQ", "question": "Will a Supreme Court Justice die, retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 411, "shares": 612.8425, "current_prob": 0.18, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7535 age-chosen refresh, held .06. New positive witness: Bloomberg Law reports Alito plans to stay even if Democrats win the Senate, i.e. he has pre-empted the lame-duck strategic retirement tail that tonight's likely Senate flip would open; Thomas has also shown no sign of leaving. Prior c7203 source (Alito CBS excerpts, stay this term, revisit 2027: https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/6127267-alito-considered-supreme-court-retirement/) still carries. Residual = actuarial for 9 justices over ~2 months + a small lame-duck surprise. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/us-law-week/supreme-courts-alito-plans-to-stay-even-if-democrats-win-senate SPAN: through 2026-12-31 [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: Bloomberg Law URL seen only as a WebSearch summary (paywalled)]", "prob_at_bet": 0.3869, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-a-supreme-court-justice-retire-lhcI98yN9A", "unrealized_value": 502.53, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T13:09:54.917505+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "NRun6gdZzP", "question": "No Supreme Court vacancy opens in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 415.71, "shares": 622.6619, "current_prob": 0.82, "my_estimate": 0.97, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:59+00:00", "reasoning": "c7393 re-check, 66d left: no retirement signal since the last re-verify. Alito repeated in an Oct 4 report that he is staying for this term (vultures-circling interview, https://dnyuz.com/2026/10/04/supreme-court-justice-sounds-the-alarm-as-vultures-circling-around-him-foolhardy/ ; earlier 'here for another term' https://legalinsurrection.com/2026/08/alito-obviously-im-here-for-another-term/amp/ ). With voluntary exits closed, the residual is actuarial over 66 days (~2%) plus a small shock term, so ~3%. SPAN: through 2026-12-31 (mirror: no vacancy opens = 1 - ~3%)", "prob_at_bet": 0.6246, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/no-supreme-court-vacancy-opens-in-2", "unrealized_value": 510.58, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T18:40:38.297500+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "CIsh2zUqpC", "question": "Will Trump post another religious image deifying himself?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 1, "shares": 5.6184, "current_prob": 0.73, "my_estimate": 0.7633, "days_to_close": 808, "close_date": "2029-01-20T17:29:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.7633, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/GnosticGirl/will-trump-post-another-religious-i", "unrealized_value": 1.52, "entry_date": "2026-03-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-03-28T09:04:58.805812+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "OqOnyI9zO8", "question": "Will Qatar halt LNG exports for >7 days due to Iran conflict by June 30, 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 294.78, "shares": 335.2714, "current_prob": 0.9687, "my_estimate": 0.97, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-06-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Re-derived c3879 (was [RECOVERED] est==price==0.6736 fossil, no provenance). Criteria ALREADY MET: QatarEnergy ceased LNG production Mar 2-3 2026 + Force Majeure Mar 3 (Al Jazeera); Hormuz closed Mar 4, tankers stuck, restart \"would take weeks\"; Mar 18 Ras Laffan damage 3-5yr repair. Multi-week force-majeure halt >> 7 consecutive days, before Jul-1 gate. P(YES)~0.95; ~15% resolver risk (strict \"zero flow\" reading). Underconfident fossil, not wrong-side. TRADED YES M$70 filled @avg~0.754 + M$50 resting @0.82.", "prob_at_bet": 0.6736, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/orchestrator/will-qatar-halt-lng-exports-for-7-d", "unrealized_value": 324.78, "entry_date": "2026-06-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-25T08:12:57.336050+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "0sEPlhcgPU", "question": "Will Project Hail Mary be nominated for Best Picture?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 22.7, "shares": 34.0549, "current_prob": 0.74, "my_estimate": 0.85, "days_to_close": 81, "close_date": "2027-01-24T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7052 re-derivation of a 180-day-old recovered estimate. AwardsDaily 9/11 (https://www.awardsdaily.com/2026/09/11/2027-oscar-predictions-a-muted-festival-season-as-the-odyssey-and-project-hail-mary-light-the-way/) names The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary as the two Best Picture frontrunners after a muted festival season; it is 2026's box-office champion (https://www.goldderby.com/film/2026/2027-oscars-project-hail-mary-sinners-predictions/) and a 10-slot field. A top-2 September frontrunner with that box office misses the 10 slots rarely. .85, slightly over the 83% market; hold YES, no add.", "prob_at_bet": 0.7091, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-project-hail-mary-be-nominated", "unrealized_value": 25.2, "entry_date": "2026-09-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-24T22:18:31.639613+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "EOQs5pqtR2", "question": "Peter Mandelson to face criminal charges in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 10.35, "shares": 39.0174, "current_prob": 0.7, "my_estimate": 0.6, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.7, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/lostmyhippo/peter-mandelson-to-face-criminal-ch", "unrealized_value": 11.71, "entry_date": "2026-06-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-01T20:40:49.137493+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "UhlOP80nlZ", "question": "Will the U.S. and Iran reach a formal nuclear deal framework agreement by June 30, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 77, "shares": 103.4926, "current_prob": 0.3034, "my_estimate": 0.24, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-04-02T08:55:35.485000+00:00", "reasoning": "c4887 re-derive: WebSearch confirms Jun14 US-Iran MOU is a CEASEFIRE framework that DEFERS nuclear specifics to a 60-day talk window (~Aug); Geneva ceremony Jun19 signs the ceasefire, not a nuclear framework. No NUCLEAR framework signed by Jun30. Trading closed Apr2; resolves Jun30 -> NO strong. DEPS: aljazeera/cfr Jun2026.", "prob_at_bet": 0.3034, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ExcuseMeSir/will-the-us-and-iran-reach-a-formal-InAdE2825g", "unrealized_value": 72.09, "entry_date": "2026-07-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-10T12:48:35.670169+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "nqzhSElzSI", "question": "Will the next pope visit the United States by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 626, "shares": 727.7418, "current_prob": 0.0706, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7430 age re-derive: no US visit announced as of 10-28; Feb 8 Holy See statement (no US trip in 2026) still the latest word; July 'soon' NBC remark had no date; the only scheduled trip is Nov 6-17 Latin America; papal trips are announced months ahead, so with 64d left a US visit is ~2%. https://www.catholicworldreport.com/2026/02/08/pope-leo-xiv-will-not-travel-to-the-united-states-in-2026-vatican-says https://www.vaticannews.va/en/pope/news/2026-09/hspo-programme-latin-america-logos-mottos-itinerary.html [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: catholicworldreport seen only as a WebSearch summary]", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-next-pope-visit-the-united", "unrealized_value": 676.36, "entry_date": "2026-10-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-28T19:10:21.828408+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "8etFI0H3S77zVL8caTmc", "question": "Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA and be available for public use by 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 97, "shares": 109.4807, "current_prob": 0.0823, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7169 age-chosen re-derive: no HIV vaccine in Phase 3 since MOSAICO/HVTN 706 was stopped for futility; candidates (IAVI G004, HVTN 144) are Phase 1 — no BLA possible by 2027. +1pp over prior 0.02 only for resolver risk that a creator calls lenacapavir PrEP (an injectable, not a vaccine) a 'vaccine'. https://tech-insider.org/hiv-vaccine-fda-approval-2030-manifold-odds/", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/RachelFreedman/will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-approved", "unrealized_value": 100.47, "entry_date": "2026-10-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-01T07:38:24.022814+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "2NdAdAy8Lc", "question": "By end of 2026, will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 198, "shares": 216.6153, "current_prob": 0.0454, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-08-31T20:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AnT/by-end-of-2026-will-volodymyr-zelen", "unrealized_value": 206.78, "entry_date": "2026-08-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-25T05:19:22.885300+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "COuAddZA8O", "question": "Real GDP will grow by less than 3.5% in the US in 2026", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 77, "shares": 93.5598, "current_prob": 0.9263, "my_estimate": 0.95, "days_to_close": 61, "close_date": "2027-01-04T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7243 by-age re-derive (163d stale, empty reason). BEA third estimate: Q2 2026 real GDP +2.2% annualized, Q1 revised +2.5% (https://bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-2nd). Reaching 3.5% for the full year would need roughly 5%+ annualized in H2; no nowcast suggests that. Only the author-judgement resolver adds risk.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/real-gdp-will-grow-by-less-than-35", "unrealized_value": 86.66, "entry_date": "2026-10-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-07T22:27:47.300774+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "yEtE9lNnlP", "question": "Will Israel and Lebanon hold a second direct diplomatic meeting before May 1, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 10.03, "shares": 15.779, "current_prob": 0.3493, "my_estimate": 0.3434119097105564, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-05-01T03:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.3434119097105564, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HexNest/will-israel-and-lebanon-hold-a-seco", "unrealized_value": 10.27, "entry_date": "2026-04-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-29T10:14:23.078754+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "8d6EgAQ2Rd", "question": "Will AI impersonation on social media cause a minimum of $50M+ in reported US corporate losses in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 166.62, "shares": 358.4212, "current_prob": 0.2156, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7153 re-derivation replacing a fossil (0.743 was a copy of prob_at_bet, never a belief). Criteria need US Fortune 500 disclosures (SEC/press/earnings/Reuters-Bloomberg-FT-WSJ) cumulatively >=$50M REALIZED loss explicitly attributed to AI impersonation via FB/IG/X/YouTube/TikTok/Bluesky. The flagship deepfake case (Arup $25M) is a UK firm via video call, not social media; 2026 aggregate deepfake loss trackers cite industry-wide totals, not Fortune-500 attributed disclosures. No qualifying disclosure found 9 months in. https://www.techradar.com/vpn/vpn-privacy-security/usd3-7b-lost-to-deepfakes-why-social-media-is-the-perfect-launchpad-for-ai-fraud https://www.adaptivesecurity.com/blog/ai-deepfake-business-impact", "prob_at_bet": 0.7433805610741355, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonF/will-ai-impersonation-on-social-med", "unrealized_value": 281.15, "entry_date": "2026-09-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-30T08:02:23.806077+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "60Az0N0Azd", "question": "Will Nickel price on the London Metal Exchange exceed 9000 USD/tonne on May 31, 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 443.62, "shares": 506.0378, "current_prob": 0.9364, "my_estimate": 0.99, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-05-31T00:04:33.462000+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CurtisSteele/will-nickel-price-on-the-london-met-UEcpzUIpl5", "unrealized_value": 473.85, "entry_date": "2026-07-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-04T22:45:11.465331+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "q956SttLnU", "question": "Will the LME nickel price exceed 9500 USD/tonne on July 1, 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 89.12, "shares": 99.6281, "current_prob": 0.99, "my_estimate": 0.98, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-01T21:08:25.462000+00:00", "reasoning": "c3882 re-derive (fossil #15): LME nickel ~$18,900/tonne (May 22 2026, TradingEconomics/westmetall) vs $9,500 threshold July-1 — would need ~50% crash in 5 weeks, near-impossible; PNG halt + Indonesian cuts supply premise intact/bullish. True P(YES)~0.98. Added YES M$80 limit@0.92 (avg fill ~0.898), bet pushed 0.871->0.92. Resolver/data risk only.", "prob_at_bet": 0.8711340206185567, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CurtisSteele/will-the-lme-nickel-price-exceed-95-0pAgERhh5N", "unrealized_value": 98.63, "entry_date": "2026-04-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-04T15:23:01.278623+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "qOccROSO8U", "question": "Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 20 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 232.94, "shares": 259.2699, "current_prob": 0.0465, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-05-31T12:04:14.064000+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CurtisSteele/will-crude-oil-supply-impact-due-to-zOI8dOE60l", "unrealized_value": 247.21, "entry_date": "2026-05-05", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-05T08:45:31.642197+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "5c8h8RLyuL", "question": "Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 7.05, "shares": 13.7656, "current_prob": 0.168, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6964 STALE UNSOURCED BELIEF REPAIRED (set 2026-04-05, 168d old, reasoning field empty) + PAIRWISE COHERENCE. Verified today: Anthropic has NO first-party image generation model as of 2026-09-20. Claude Design (April 2026) generates HTML/CSS/SVG and is explicitly NOT raster image generation (https://www.neowin.net/news/claude-just-got-one-step-closer-to-image-generation-with-this-new-feature/). Image generation inside Claude today runs through THIRD-PARTY MCP connectors (Nano Banana, Canva), which is the opposite of 'natively integrate'. Anthropic's stated 2026 roadmap is Mythos / advanced reasoning / agentic coding and does not include native multimodal output; Amodei has deliberately avoided image+video generation on deepfake-risk grounds. With 102 days left and an IPO in November, a native first-party image pipeline is not a plausible ship. 0.48 -> 0.10. NOTE: my 0.48 here sat against 0.20 on the near-identical AzQ265SINZ ('release a first-party image generation model in 2026') while I held OPPOSITE sides of the two - a 28pp gap on one underlying event. Both now derived from the same evidence.", "prob_at_bet": 0.4817614113778981, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-anthropic-natively-integrate-i", "unrealized_value": 11.45, "entry_date": "2026-09-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-20T02:48:02.006471+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "UnOtZp8suI", "question": "Will the Supreme Court rule against disparate impact by Dec 31 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 27.85, "shares": 67.4525, "current_prob": 0.7433, "my_estimate": 0.68, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7088 re-derive from the opinion text itself: Callais majority (Alito) holds §2 liability needs a strong inference of intentional discrimination, and says a law 'prohibiting mere disparate impact would fail to enforce' the 15th Amendment — the phrase is in the holding, which fits 'explicitly limits... disparate impact in any area of law'. Residual risk is only resolver reading (creator inactive since May → mod resolution at close). 0.58 was a 27-day-old number carrying resolver fear I now think overweighted. 0.68, HOLD the remaining half (sold half at 84 last cycle); gap to 78% is 10pp, not a hard exit. https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/24-109_2026-04-29 https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/05/understanding-the-recent-voting-rights-act-case/", "prob_at_bet": 0.3616566296566874, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AudeIdScire/will-the-supreme-court-rule-against-I9LRElhqUP", "unrealized_value": 50.14, "entry_date": "2026-09-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-26T20:25:59.867306+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "9qO6y9sEId", "question": "[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 12.52, "shares": 41.7302, "current_prob": 0.0863, "my_estimate": 0.16, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.2999999999999998, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-an-aicreated-song-cha", "unrealized_value": 3.6, "entry_date": "2026-09-09", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-09T14:56:36.432309+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "npRtO25zAZ", "question": "Gas exceeds $4.50, and democrats control both House and Senate?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 4.66, "shares": 9.1992, "current_prob": 0.9702, "my_estimate": 0.67, "days_to_close": 1, "close_date": "2026-11-05T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7461 refresh of a 0.50 belief from August (FiftyPlusOne 08-03 Senate 55%). Gas leg already satisfied (AAA peak 4.56 in May), so this is P(Dems both chambers). Deep Manifold market on exactly that, 2lZdlsyUPh (M$252k volume), reads 0.70 today https://manifold.markets/api/v0/market/2lZdlsyUPh ; Kalshi Senate control ~68% D as of Oct 22 per https://news.kalshi.com/p/how-many-senate-seats-are-up-for-reelection-in-2026 ; House D is ~95% (uISNlAqC2E GOP-House 5%), so both ~= Senate ~0.67. Anchor 0.50 is 3 months old; consensus moved, not my register. [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: kalshi page seen only as a WebSearch summary]", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/vdb/gas-exceeds-450-and-democrats-contr", "unrealized_value": 0.27, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T11:28:46.790614+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "lC2OstCSty", "question": "[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 11.92, "shares": 38.3332, "current_prob": 0.1957, "my_estimate": 0.30934267472502214, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.30934267472502214, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-the-us-enact-an-ai-sa", "unrealized_value": 7.5, "entry_date": "2026-04-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-06T19:31:21.682330+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "hCqO9R5L20", "question": "Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 3.02, "shares": 3.8327, "current_prob": 0.029, "my_estimate": 0.2099999999999999, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.2099999999999999, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-there-be-a-67-or-greater-magni", "unrealized_value": 3.72, "entry_date": "2026-04-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-08T22:26:41.626224+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "uOE6z8qE6Q", "question": "Will Gavin Newsom formally announce a 2028 presidential campaign before January 1, 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 95.8, "shares": 124.8474, "current_prob": 0.14, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7229 sourced re-derivation after a +28pp spike (one bettor, M$20 YES at 02:58Z 10-07, no news found). New since c7182: NBC 2026-09-14, Newsom: 'I wouldn't run if she ran' (Harris), and he still says he will decide AFTER the Nov 3 midterms. A formal launch needs that decision, Harris's own call, and a launch inside ~8 weeks while still governor (term ends Jan 2027). Lowered 0.10 to 0.08. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2028-election/gavin-newsom-says-wont-run-2028-kamala-harris-rcna597825 https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la/politics/2025/10/26/gov--newsom-says-he-ll-consider-presidential-run-after-2026-midterms", "prob_at_bet": 0.30000000000000027, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/szepvagy/will-gavin-newsom-formally-announce", "unrealized_value": 107.37, "entry_date": "2026-10-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-07T03:32:21.832252+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "AZScEgquQp", "question": "Will Trump raise the global Section 122 tariff rate to 15% before June 1, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 15, "shares": 17.5589, "current_prob": 0.0374, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-06-02T04:30:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5916: deadline Jun 1 PASSED, no formal Section-122 15% global tariff announced. Closed awaiting resolution — NO wins. Event-window-passed re-type per c3867.", "prob_at_bet": 0.13906303411326848, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HexNest/will-trump-raise-the-global-section", "unrealized_value": 16.9, "entry_date": "2026-04-09", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-09T14:13:37.395433+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "ZqrdRKgvg3d2B65uEWAx", "question": "Will the Supreme Court strike down the FTC’s attempt to ban noncompete agreements before the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 330, "shares": 444.6921, "current_prob": 0.0659, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7216 refresh, no new evidence needed: the stored reasoning (FTC acceded to vacatur 2025-09-05, removed the rule from the CFR 2026-02-12) leaves nothing for SCOTUS to strike down before 2026-12-31; value unchanged.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/wispyartichoke/will-the-supreme-court-strike-down", "unrealized_value": 415.39, "entry_date": "2026-10-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-06T09:23:42.301041+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "TIwLnAgLSHdYlCj1lynh", "question": "Will the iPhone 18 include a model with no charging port?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 204, "shares": 219.5889, "current_prob": 0.0401, "my_estimate": 0.025, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-08-01T02:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-iphone-18-include-a-model", "unrealized_value": 210.78, "entry_date": "2026-05-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-10T13:53:03.843479+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "qt9uU8Pc8I", "question": "Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Nevada?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 7.29, "shares": 11.0001, "current_prob": 0.33, "my_estimate": 0.22, "days_to_close": 209, "close_date": "2027-06-01T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5977 refresh: criteria re-read — YES needs Kalshi FULLY available in NV (incl. sports) after ALL appeals or settlement; close Jun 2027 'suggestion, may be extended'. Kalshi won prelim injunction rounds but full-appellate-finality + full availability by mid-2027 is a high bar. Price 0.174 ~ fair. HOLD NO M$253. Briefing '1d left' was corrupted (c3834 pattern).", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/nikki/will-kalshi-win-its-lawsuit-against-5QcEnz8Ig6", "unrealized_value": 7.37, "entry_date": "2026-09-05", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-05T12:40:00.458263+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "clqR6g0N52", "question": "Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 15 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 17.38, "shares": 72.5998, "current_prob": 0.4411, "my_estimate": 0.52, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-05-31T12:04:14.064000+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.29999999999999993, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CurtisSteele/will-crude-oil-supply-impact-due-to-zZEPCR50gQ", "unrealized_value": 32.02, "entry_date": "2026-05-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-15T12:41:47.206458+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "h2ZUPPQCgn", "question": "Will Crude oil supply impact due to Persian Gulf military conflict exceed 10 million barrels/day on May 31, 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 33.31, "shares": 60.9236, "current_prob": 0.72, "my_estimate": 0.78, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-05-31T12:04:14.064000+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.6200000000000001, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CurtisSteele/will-crude-oil-supply-impact-due-to", "unrealized_value": 43.86, "entry_date": "2026-05-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-15T12:42:21.046489+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "cuuNzhNzdn", "question": "2026 US tornado count above 1,400 by December 31, 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 12, "shares": 102.4041, "current_prob": 0.87, "my_estimate": 0.87, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T06:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7390 (Clanky c1578 lead, verified): Wikipedia Tornadoes of 2026 table shows 1,361 confirmed US tornadoes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2026). Needs 40+ more by Dec 31; late-Oct to Dec normally brings ~80-100, and confirmations lag. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/awesomegaming/2026-us-tornado-count-above-1300-by", "unrealized_value": 13.31, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T13:30:36.659631+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "dQqAId8LRU", "question": "Will Saikat Chakrabarti be elected to Congress in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 46, "shares": 56.1328, "current_prob": 0.0136, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c3996 re-derive: CA-11 top-2 primary Jun2 — Saikat finished 3RD (Wiener 40017 / Chan 26443 / Chakrabarti 13154, NBC/270toWin). Eliminated, cannot advance to Nov general → cannot be elected 2026. YES~3% (residual recount/dropout only). Holding NO, sell proposal was fossil-est-15% artifact — re-derive flips SELL→HOLD, NO is winning. Witness: NBC CA-11 live results, ABC7.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/PeterBennett/will-saikat-chakrabarti-be-elected", "unrealized_value": 55.37, "entry_date": "2026-06-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-03T04:55:00+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "ysdtPqznPt", "question": "Will FIFA cancel the soccer matches in Jalisco?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 187, "shares": 212.3083, "current_prob": 0.01, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-19T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JCt8SZ2/will-fifa-cancel-the-soccer-matches", "unrealized_value": 210.19, "entry_date": "2026-07-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-31T10:27:11.078808+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "3oCVQUfiudFd0kby61BG", "question": "Will Argentina hold presidential elections on schedule in 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 183, "shares": 232.2462, "current_prob": 0.7862831913818609, "my_estimate": 0.93, "days_to_close": 393, "close_date": "2027-12-02T06:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Re-derive c5919: no news behind today's 12pp drop (single M$240 NO whale 18:43Z). Oct 24 2027 election scheduled, Milei running. Base rate: every scheduled presidential election held since 1983; 2003 moved earlier = why not 0.97. Added M$142 YES @ ~77.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-argentina-hold-presidential-el", "unrealized_value": 182.61, "entry_date": "2026-07-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-14T20:18:01.080073+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "PsNzu6tLgs", "question": "Will Claudia Sheinbaum remain president of Mexico through EoY 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 93, "shares": 100.1689, "current_prob": 0.939, "my_estimate": 0.98, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7237 age-chosen re-derivation: Mexico News Daily front page dated 2026-10-07 (https://mexiconewsdaily.com/) shows Sheinbaum running her morning briefings as president, no resignation/illness/impeachment news. Term runs to 2030; mandate-revocation vote is not scheduled in 2026. 85 days left; base rate of a popular head of state leaving office in under 3 months is ~1%. Hold at .98.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Marnix/will-claudia-sheinbaum-remain-presi", "unrealized_value": 94.06, "entry_date": "2026-10-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-07T14:28:00.952734+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "pz6yzA8lpI", "question": "Critterz scores 55+ on Metacritic?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 28, "shares": 41.756, "current_prob": 0.3251166576569233, "my_estimate": 0.22, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T20:07:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7152 thesis check: Cannes premiere cancelled after Sora shutdown, release TBA (https://hi-tech.ua/en/sora-let-hollywood-down-ai-cartoon-critterz-postponed-the-premiere-in-cannes/). No Metacritic score by EOY = N/A per description, so the delay pushes toward N/A (refund), not YES. Conditional on a 2026 release, a rushed AI-generated feature scoring 55+ stays ~0.22.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/critterz-scores-55-on-metacritic", "unrealized_value": 28.18, "entry_date": "2026-09-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-30T06:37:48.278369+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "pdcCOyRyOL", "question": "Will Elon Musk and OpenAI announce a settlement in their federal lawsuit before July 1, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 41, "shares": 48.0588, "current_prob": 0.0129, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:30:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HexNest/will-elon-musk-and-openai-announce", "unrealized_value": 47.44, "entry_date": "2026-05-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-19T05:57:54.713167+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "cCgcOAPEU5", "question": "Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 1.01, "shares": 1.5603, "current_prob": 0.197, "my_estimate": 0.2, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-10-01T07:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Clanky c1479 lead, verified: BleepingComputer 8/10 says GPT-5.6-Cyber only available to select companies (Accenture, IBM, KPMG...); Daybreak Blue is the general flagship alias = the criteria's explicit NO clause; my own c7059 Fortune source has GPT-6 Cyber in limited Daybreak Red testing. Nothing widens Red to all approved users, 2 days left. https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/openai-releases-chatgpt-56-cyber-but-its-only-for-approved-users/", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-openai-broadly-release-a-dedic", "unrealized_value": 0.31, "entry_date": "2026-09-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-28T16:14:03.422822+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "su0N9QQlAE", "question": "Trump will announce tariffs on a European country to pay towards the Iran war by end of Jun 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 112.27, "shares": 145.6753, "current_prob": 0.0689, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-06-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c3197 oracle 15% + my 12% blend = 14%. Ceasefire active (Op Epic Fury under truce), Feb 6 EO framed as secondary sanctions not war-finance, existing EU tariffs tied to Greenland/July4 trade-deal not Iran. Court injunctions on 2026 tariffs add legal hurdle. Resolution requires explicit funding-framing, not vague penalties. 44d horizon. Added M$91 NO @14%.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/VictorMeldrewSnr/trump-will-announce-tariffs-on-a-eu", "unrealized_value": 135.64, "entry_date": "2026-07-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-14T14:33:30.769291+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "StznP0phtI", "question": "Mike Johnson gone as House speaker before Nov 3 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 20, "shares": 28.0142, "current_prob": 0.01, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-04T10:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7226 age-chosen re-derive: Johnson still Speaker in Oct 2026 (https://ballotpedia.org/Mike_Johnson_(Louisiana)); 28 days left, House out campaigning before Nov 3 midterms, no motion to vacate reported. Base rate of a mid-session speaker removal in 4 weeks is low; 0.10 was carrying 95 days of risk that has now elapsed.", "prob_at_bet": 0.27251751045138284, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/mike-johnson-gone-as-house-speaker", "unrealized_value": 27.73, "entry_date": "2026-10-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-06T23:12:08.423605+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "NS5IE5dzLs", "question": "Will the Supreme Court uphold the 5th Circuit ruling restricting mifepristone?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 260, "shares": 390.9055, "current_prob": 0.2847, "my_estimate": 0.14, "days_to_close": 239, "close_date": "2027-07-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/NicholasWeininger/will-the-supreme-court-uphold-the-5", "unrealized_value": 279.61, "entry_date": "2026-07-05", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-05T06:28:37.982315+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "N6f8f7iChjNB6Xxs4nzQ", "question": "Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 65.38, "shares": 111.6058, "current_prob": 0.5477, "my_estimate": 0.38, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-fda-approve-any-mrna-vaccine-a", "unrealized_value": 50.48, "entry_date": "2026-08-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-20T11:48:54.488249+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ID1jBWOPnr2GjVrOPErn", "question": "Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine \"pass\" its phase 3 human trial?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 666, "shares": 959.8927, "current_prob": 0.8001, "my_estimate": 0.78, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7434 age-triage re-derivation, held .78. IDWeek full results (Healio 2026-10-24) repeat the stored facts: 73.2% efficacy, CI lower bound 15.8% 'just missed' the 20% bar; an IDSA expert called it clinically meaningful, another said encouraging but year-one efficacy unaddressed. Expert read still split-but-positive, which is what .78 already priced. https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20261024/lyme-disease-vaccine-shows-meaningful-efficacy-in-trial https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/pfizer-valneva-blame-low-lyme-cases-phase-3-vaccine-fail-still-plan-approval-push", "prob_at_bet": 0.6585, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-the-vla15-lyme-disease-vaccine", "unrealized_value": 768.01, "entry_date": "2026-10-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-29T00:32:25.303175+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Xr1ZgPrC6h5UyGDVdlQL", "question": "Will Astrobotic's Griffin Lander land (mostly successfully) on the moon?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 313, "shares": 623.95, "current_prob": 0.4269, "my_estimate": 0.34, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T06:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7491 age re-derive (41.6d stale). Instrument unchanged: P(lands, any telemetry) x P(not resolved NO on the close date). New since c6973: env testing at JPL CONCLUDED 2026-10-13 and NASA/Voyager in late Oct expected launch before end-2026 or Jan 2027 (Wikipedia raw citing https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-jpl-testing-readies-voyager-technologies-lander-for-moon-mission/ and https://www.nasa.gov/missions/moon-base/nasa-provides-progress-update-on-moon-base-rovers/ ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Griffin_Mission_One still says November 2026 planned); Next Spaceflight now lists NET January 2027 (https://www.nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/6759/ , curl 03:09Z 11-01, net 2027-01-31). Description has NO date clause: NO only on failed landing or cancellation, so a slip mostly extends rather than settles. Lenient bar (tipped IM-1/IM-2 would count) puts P(success|launch) ~.45 not .42. 0.9 x 0.45 x 0.85 = .34. Prior sources (astrobotic 06-15 release, Wikipedia NET Nov) still carry; the update is UP against my NO. Edge vs .427 ~9pp: HOLD, no add. SPAN: through 2027-01-31", "prob_at_bet": 0.5719109098542609, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-astrobotics-griffin-lander-lan", "unrealized_value": 357.59, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T03:10:18.317542+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Z5LLL2u29Q", "question": "Would Drake Play Stake Casino until 31 May?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 30, "shares": 54.1352, "current_prob": 0.5946, "my_estimate": 0.560806359523914, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-05-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.560806359523914, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/GgQpN/would-drake-play-stake-casino-until", "unrealized_value": 32.19, "entry_date": "2026-04-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-19T11:11:11.966395+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "dCd8u5dp6I", "question": "Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by Aug 2, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 196.63, "shares": 326.0185, "current_prob": 0.0145, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-08-02T22:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5973 re-derive (kills [RECOVERED] fossil): final Art73 guidance NOT yet published as of Jul 22; draft consultation closed Nov 7 2025 (digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu); Latham: final 'expected to apply from Aug 2 2026'. Statutory Art73(7) deadline Aug 2 pushes for publication, but Commission has slipped AI Act deliverables repeatedly (GPAI CoP late, omnibus delays). 11d window. Est 0.30 conf 0.5 ~ market 0.25 -> no edge, HOLD NO M$10.", "prob_at_bet": 0.6417768505059867, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-eu-publish-final-ai-act-ar", "unrealized_value": 321.29, "entry_date": "2026-08-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-04T07:38:04.295965+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "Pnzy2CyA9s", "question": "FOR AI AGENTS ONLY, NO HUMANS ALLOWED. - 🤖", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 11.68, "shares": 21.3563, "current_prob": 0.3956, "my_estimate": 0.49, "days_to_close": 724481, "close_date": "4010-05-28T11:43:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5910 deliberate at-market mark, NOT a derivation: novelty AI-agents-only puzzle market (riddle = Snake), cpmm-multi-1 (no self-netting exit; exit would OPEN a position), M$1.39 trivial, closes year 4010. No information advantage possible; marked at market to clear UNMANAGED monitor. Do not trade.", "prob_at_bet": 0.5, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/for-ai-agents-only-no-humans-allowe", "unrealized_value": 12.91, "entry_date": "2026-07-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-14T07:42:14.568688+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "phOQyl22N6", "question": "Are there spirits lurking in the shadows?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 13.4, "shares": 18.6327, "current_prob": 0.17, "my_estimate": 0.17, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2027-01-01T00:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7499 hazard re-derivation on the same resolution description (https://manifold.markets/realTomBayes/are-there-spirits-lurking-in-the-sha): the c6743 0.33 was ~0.1/month over 3.8 months left; now ~10 months open with no qualifying moderator-named alt, Laplace ~1/12 per month over the 2 months left gives ~0.16-0.18. Price 0.23 is above that, stop-loss and estimate agree: exit. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": 0.8, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/realTomBayes/are-there-spirits-lurking-in-the-sh", "unrealized_value": 3.17, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T13:40:52.743976+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Pnzy2CyA9s", "question": "FOR AI AGENTS ONLY, NO HUMANS ALLOWED. - 🌀", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 1.39, "shares": 2.5498, "current_prob": 0.4873, "my_estimate": 0.49, "days_to_close": 724481, "close_date": "4010-05-28T11:43:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5910 deliberate at-market mark, NOT a derivation: novelty AI-agents-only puzzle market (riddle = Snake), cpmm-multi-1 (no self-netting exit; exit would OPEN a position), M$1.39 trivial, closes year 4010. No information advantage possible; marked at market to clear UNMANAGED monitor. Do not trade.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/for-ai-agents-only-no-humans-allowe", "unrealized_value": 1.31, "entry_date": "2026-07-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-14T07:42:14.568688+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "OOOyuq0nhz", "question": "US Military drone strike in Mexico before EOY2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 120, "shares": 159.0991, "current_prob": 0.0734, "my_estimate": 0.13, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7211 age-chosen re-derive (est was 118d old). Searches 10-05 find no US military strike on Mexican soil in 2026; only discussion/threats plus CBP/military shooting down 300+ cartel drones on the US side of the border (counter-drone, not a strike in Mexico). Sheinbaum still says 'it won't happen' and the posture has stayed threats-only for ~13 months. 87 days left with a low monthly hazard -> ~0.13 (was 0.20 at 205d horizon). https://mexiconewsdaily.com/politics/us-bombing-mexico-sheinbaum-friday-mananera-recap/ https://newscentraltv.com/?p=443288", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/us-military-drone-strike-in-mexico", "unrealized_value": 147.42, "entry_date": "2026-10-05", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-05T22:35:51.120786+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "lOyIN26SNL", "question": "Will OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before 1 July 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 254, "shares": 284.5193, "current_prob": 0.99, "my_estimate": 0.99, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-06-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Re-derive c3889 (fossil). Q: OpenAI announce a new GPT-5-level model before Jul-1-2026. GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.5 Pro released Apr-24-2026 (TechCrunch/OpenAI/Fortune) — a new frontier model announced well before deadline. Already YES. P(YES)~0.99. est 0.98 confirmed; market 0.92 slightly low. Over cap + Manifold 503 -> HOLD.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Albertito/will-openai-announce-a-new-gpt5leve", "unrealized_value": 281.67, "entry_date": "2026-06-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-01T22:35:00Z", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "9UCCOInpOS", "question": "Will Trump's approval rating be higher on election day (Nov. 3, 2026) than it was in his first term (Nov. 6, 2018)?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 35, "shares": 40.1726, "current_prob": 0.0199, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7216 re-derive: bar is Silver Bulletin approval on 11-03 > 42.0%. Silver Bulletin net approval hit a second-term low of -20.6 on 2026-07-31 with disapproval near 60%, i.e. approval ~38-39%; a 3+ point rise inside a month is rare. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BURNTramenNoOdLeS/will-trumps-approval-rating-be-high-qt2lA22CAZ", "unrealized_value": 39.37, "entry_date": "2026-10-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-06T09:27:54.282344+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "qHXwLdz4Hxec0G30lVF0", "question": "Will Congress vote to disqualify Donald Trump from running for president ever again?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 30, "shares": 31.2297, "current_prob": 0.0322, "my_estimate": 0.03902201054740616, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.03902201054740616, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-congress-vote-to-disqualify-do", "unrealized_value": 30.22, "entry_date": "2026-04-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-04-27T08:25:58.297172+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "lA0OnpAdq2", "question": "Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 15, "shares": 29.2734, "current_prob": 0.0104, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-09-30T23:59:59+00:00", "reasoning": "c7038 age-based re-derive (41.8d stale). US and Iran held their FIRST mediated shuttle talks in months at UNGA on 2026-09-23 (Witkoff/Kushner <-> Araqchi via mediators), the first contact since the interim ceasefire collapsed in July; open issues are Hormuz fees and frozen assets, and Trump framed it as deal vs 'annihilate' (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-09-23/hope-for-progress-after-us-iran-hold-first-shuttle-talks-in-months). A FORMAL nuclear deal in the 6 days to Sep 30 from indirect first-round talks: ~2%. Hold NO M$15.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ExcuseMeSir/will-iran-and-the-us-reach-a-formal", "unrealized_value": 28.97, "entry_date": "2026-09-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-24T03:38:38.147729+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "U8AQ0zL6c2", "question": "Major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic will stop investing in MCP in 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 349, "shares": 626.2569, "current_prob": 0.3585, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 65, "close_date": "2027-01-08T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7336 age-chosen re-derive, held at .10. Grader is the prediction's own author (Andrew Lee, Tasklet, 90% confidence per https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026), so self-grading generosity is the main YES path. But the wording is 'stop investing', and MCP got a July 2026 spec revision (stateless redesign, 10k+ public servers) per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_Context_Protocol, so investment visibly continued into H2. The 36% price is mostly my own last buys (no independent bets in 85d except a M$5 NO). SPAN: through 2026-12-31.", "prob_at_bet": 0.5328062638280572, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/major-ai-companies-like-openai-and", "unrealized_value": 401.74, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T23:01:32.028622+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "ERyUOhRlN0", "question": "Will a Chinese airline announce a purchase of at least 25 Boeing aircraft before June?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 103.45, "shares": 176.0939, "current_prob": 0.1687, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-05-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.5499999999999999, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-a-chinese-airline-announce-a-p-NR26dt5ZpE", "unrealized_value": 146.39, "entry_date": "2026-05-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-29T14:38:05.367640+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "PsN9c8dSny", "question": "Any myostatin inhibitor FDA approved by 2027", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 21.69, "shares": 35.4051, "current_prob": 0.9312, "my_estimate": 0.97, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Settled by fact: FDA approved ISEMBYLD (apitegromab-mstn, myostatin-activation inhibitor, Scholar Rock) for SMA on 2026-09-11. Residual = creator-resolution risk. https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/scholar-rock-announces-fda-approval-222500403.html", "prob_at_bet": 0.7, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/hectohenry/any-myostatin-inhibitor-fda-approve", "unrealized_value": 32.97, "entry_date": "2026-09-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-30T13:22:45.879569+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ygIt5tgygp", "question": "Will GTA 6 win GOTY (Game Awards)?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 2.21, "shares": 4.0493, "current_prob": 0.8197, "my_estimate": 0.5499999999999999, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.5499999999999999, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EdisonYi/will-gta-6-win-goty-game-awards", "unrealized_value": 3.32, "entry_date": "2026-05-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-06T00:36:57.872887+00:00", "domain": "gaming" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - Orality and Literacy by Walter Ong", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 4.24, "shares": 457.1499, "current_prob": 0.0675, "my_estimate": 0.1042, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 30.86, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:09.781671+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - The Book of Abraham", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 60, "shares": 1254.7956, "current_prob": 0.011, "my_estimate": 0.0922, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 13.8, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:10.135874+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - Breakdown in Pakistan: How Aid Is Eroding Institutions for Collective Action", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 5.06, "shares": 457.1499, "current_prob": 0.2189, "my_estimate": 0.1303, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 100.07, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:10.488244+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - We Present Television", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 4.85, "shares": 457.1499, "current_prob": 0.0429, "my_estimate": 0.0642, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 19.61, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:10.832949+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - The Tale of Genji", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 4.65, "shares": 457.1499, "current_prob": 0.0428, "my_estimate": 0.0729, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 19.57, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:11.172742+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "5hqSlZpSg6", "question": "Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 11.5, "shares": 21.7577, "current_prob": 0.0658, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T11:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/PhilipDowdell/will-more-us-ai-models-be-subject-t", "unrealized_value": 1.43, "entry_date": "2026-08-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-14T05:56:11.999546+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "QpEIX5tQfN5ZODbMztoB", "question": "If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 1.65, "shares": 2.1973, "current_prob": 0.0902, "my_estimate": 0.24910103176174578, "days_to_close": 90, "close_date": "2027-02-02T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.24910103176174578, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/PeterF/if-trump-wins-will-the-us-enter-a-r", "unrealized_value": 2.0, "entry_date": "2026-05-17", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-17T21:25:38.393186+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "ts8nClp2Cn", "question": "Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 130, "shares": 201.7036, "current_prob": 0.14, "my_estimate": 0.09, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.35328086641425943, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/trvon/will-the-us-enact-ai-regulation-for", "unrealized_value": 173.47, "entry_date": "2026-09-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-13T06:54:31.794748+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "2afK1MEwsNJ1LwL15m9N", "question": "Will AI be regularly used to diagnose complex diseases by 2028?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 100, "shares": 120.638, "current_prob": 0.2384, "my_estimate": 0.1652356875562385, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.1652356875562385, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/roughlyhewn/will-ai-be-regularly-used-to-diagno", "unrealized_value": 91.88, "entry_date": "2026-05-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-19T06:22:40.990253+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "QNOsusnC2L", "question": "Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 44, "shares": 149.2354, "current_prob": 0.4475, "my_estimate": 0.92, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7476: INEGI timely estimate (Boletin 673/26, 30 Oct 2026) original-series y/y: 2026 Q1 +0.2, Q2 +2.1, Q3 +3.2, Jan-Sep +1.8 (SA Q3 +0.9 q/q, +3.2 y/y). Year reaches 1.4% if Q4 2026 y/y is above about +0.2; flat Q4 q/q gives roughly +1.8 y/y, so a miss needs about a -1.6% q/q drop, not seen outside 2020. https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/saladeprensa/boletines/2026/pibo/pib_eo2026_10.pdf . Prior sources no longer carry: https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/banxico-ups-mexico-gdp-2026/ was a full-year FORECAST (1.5%) made before Q3 was printed, and https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2859165-mexico-economy-tops-forecasts-with-2.2pc-2q-growth covers only Q2; the Q3 print replaces the forecast uncertainty they priced with 3 of 4 quarters of realized data. Residual: revisions, resolver waiting for final figures.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MiguelSanchezB/will-mexicos-real-gdp-grow-by-at-le", "unrealized_value": 66.78, "entry_date": "2026-10-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-31T07:13:20.486134+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "udAUupudlE", "question": "Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 43.86, "shares": 63.2468, "current_prob": 0.01, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-10-28T18:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7362 age-triggered re-derive, held .01: Fed HIKED 9/16 to 3.75-4.00; Oct 27-28 market strip (9/17) cut 25 0.8% + cut 50 0.3%, no change 53%, hike 47% https://www.octagonai.co/markets/economics/fed/fed-decision-in-october.md . A cut 6 weeks after a hike needs a shock; nothing in the 10/19 news flow. SPAN: through 2026-10-28", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-fed-cut-rates-by-at-least-gsyCdSpcsg", "unrealized_value": 62.61, "entry_date": "2026-10-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-19T22:07:06.502119+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "9g00LQp6U8", "question": "Will Japan play in the quarterfinals of the 2026 World Cup?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 48.6, "shares": 61.8431, "current_prob": 0.01, "my_estimate": 0.0, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/tsuka/will-japan-play-in-the-quarterfinal", "unrealized_value": 61.22, "entry_date": "2026-07-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-23T21:12:53.991652+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Qh2ctyZCz8", "question": "Will Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine be available in the US in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 284.17, "shares": 357.15, "current_prob": 0.9346, "my_estimate": 0.98, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7250 age-triage re-derive: mFlusiva is now actually in US pharmacies - Moderna says 13,000+ locations, CVS stocking, Walgreens limited quantities (NBC News https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mrna-flu-vaccine-moderna-mflusiva-explained-rcna598524 ; Press Democrat 9/17 https://www.pressdemocrat.com/2026/09/17/new-flu-vaccine-north-bay-retailers/). The question's availability-in-2026 condition is met; residual is resolver delay or quibble only.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/bens/will-modernas-mrna-flu-shot-be-avai", "unrealized_value": 333.79, "entry_date": "2026-10-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-08T07:31:28.374383+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "6pO2AZERcP", "question": "Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 203, "shares": 238.7171, "current_prob": 0.0279, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 70, "close_date": "2027-01-14T00:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Sourced refresh (est 99d stale). Senate Ag Committee advanced its farm bill 12-11 on 2026-09-12 WITHOUT the Save Our Bacon preemption (Boozman: base text excludes it, needs 60 votes); no floor vote scheduled as of 9/22; House-Senate conference would still have to add it back and enact before 1/14/27, with midterms + lame duck in between. https://hoodline.com/2026/09/california-s-prop-12-pork-rules-face-federal-override-as-farm-bill-fight-heats-up/ https://www.humaneworld.org/en/news/whats-happening-california-prop-12-farm-bill-save-our-bacon-act", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-the-farm-bill-with-save-our-ba", "unrealized_value": 232.06, "entry_date": "2026-09-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-26T13:57:47.282241+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "P8AdyLIUhs", "question": "Alberta votes YES in independence referendum by end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 1.62, "shares": 1.8699, "current_prob": 0.01, "my_estimate": 0.09, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T11:11:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jubs/alberta-votes-yes-in-independence-r", "unrealized_value": 1.85, "entry_date": "2026-06-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-19T20:59:19.327487+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "POyu0IgIU5", "question": "Will Iran agree to suspend uranium enrichment for at least 12 months by July 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 50.51, "shares": 59.758, "current_prob": 0.0151, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-31T22:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5916 re-derive: war re-escalated Jul 13-14 — US strikes on Bushehr/Bandar Abbas, Iran attacking tankers in Hormuz. P(Iran agrees to 12-mo enrichment suspension in 17 days) ~0.03. NO M$51 hold to resolution.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-iran-agree-to-suspend-uranium", "unrealized_value": 58.86, "entry_date": "2026-06-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-20T16:26:32.856264+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "E9CNZA0LZ0", "question": "Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 68, "shares": 77.1174, "current_prob": 0.15, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 227, "close_date": "2027-06-19T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JamesSanders/does-china-have-an-asml-euv-machine", "unrealized_value": 65.55, "entry_date": "2026-06-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-20T21:15:57.371322+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "0XBGzrBjZAUzP7Mx2NCW", "question": "Will the price of oil reach $150 before the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 500, "shares": 609.63, "current_prob": 0.115, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7384 input refresh, same instrument and method (driftless barrier touch on WTI). WTI 103.27 on 2026-10-23 (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil), up from 94.27 at the 09-28 write; $150 = +45% in ~67d. Touch prob: sigma 50% = .08, 60% = .15, 40% = .03. War-regime vol ~50-55% => .10. Higher spot offsets less time. Hold NO M$500; edge ~+3pp.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/cash/will-the-price-of-oil-reach-150-bef", "unrealized_value": 539.52, "entry_date": "2026-10-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-25T06:40:25.448274+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "NA29QUL56Z", "question": "Will OpenAI be listed on Nasdaq by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 56.6, "shares": 123.9666, "current_prob": 0.0333, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5907 re-derive: P(Nasdaq-listed by end 2026) = P(IPO 2026 ~0.15) x P(Nasdaq venue ~0.65) ~= 0.10. Sibling-coherent with Csgc56pdZc 0.15. NO @ 19.8% favorable, hold.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/manifold123/will-openai-be-listed-on-nasdaq-by", "unrealized_value": 119.84, "entry_date": "2026-09-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-13T04:36:07.303878+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "ccl2dy2PRc", "question": "Will the USA reach the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 189, "shares": 319.6077, "current_prob": 0.0092, "my_estimate": 0.005, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-18T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/LiadEvron/will-the-usa-reach-the-quarterfinal", "unrealized_value": 316.67, "entry_date": "2026-09-18", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-18T01:53:30.328778+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "sCqyhOhnt9", "question": "Will the U.S Supreme Court rule that the U.S President can fire the head of an independent regulatory agency at will?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 94, "shares": 131.0638, "current_prob": 0.99, "my_estimate": 0.97, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-08-01T21:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ArthurWolf/will-the-us-supreme-court-rule-that", "unrealized_value": 129.75, "entry_date": "2026-07-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-29T10:34:07.223557+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "8hyIALhpqN", "question": "2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 480, "shares": 651.7686, "current_prob": 0.1179, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7392 age-triage re-derive, structure unchanged: Fed/ECB/BOJ legs already YES; BOE now likely (Goldman, Barclays, UBS, JPM forecast a Nov 2026 hike, https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-09-14/goldman-sachs-sees-boe-rate-hike-november-amid-inflation-concerns), so ~0.75. Binding leg PBC: LPR held at 3.0%/3.5% on 2026-10-20 for the 17th straight month, Q3 GDP 4.5% beat (https://tradingeconomics.com/china/interest-rate/news/593249); only Nov 20 and Dec 21 fixings remain in an easing regime, PBC hike ~0.04. Product ~0.03; holding 0.06 as the same deliberate haircut against my own NO book. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/brod/2026-rate-hike-parlay-fed-ecb-boj-b", "unrealized_value": 574.93, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T17:09:11.122368+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "Q0qIy2Rtzt", "question": "Will the S&P 500 index close below 4,800 points on any trading day between June 22 and July 10, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 677, "shares": 785.7609, "current_prob": 0.01, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-11T03:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DanteBede/will-the-sp-500-index-close-below-4", "unrealized_value": 777.9, "entry_date": "2026-06-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-23T22:47:05.432407+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "NyARtd0cRE", "question": "Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 60, "shares": 73.7548, "current_prob": 0.1069, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 56, "close_date": "2026-12-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.14688385893274186, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/jknowak/will-usda-aphis-confirm-an-african", "unrealized_value": 65.87, "entry_date": "2026-07-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-30T02:11:41.532326+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "t0OzusdOld", "question": "Will Bitcoin go below $30,000 before reaching a new all time high?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 43, "shares": 113.905, "current_prob": 0.2556, "my_estimate": 0.33, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/kbox/will-bitcoin-go-below-30000-before", "unrealized_value": 29.11, "entry_date": "2026-08-21", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-21T10:27:40.648682+00:00", "domain": "crypto" }, { "market_id": "n6ZOAcc5Nc", "question": "Will I reach a streak of 1000?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 10, "shares": 19.7695, "current_prob": 0.7705, "my_estimate": 0.530491955205159, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T09:47:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.530491955205159, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/will-i-reach-a-streak-of-1000", "unrealized_value": 15.23, "entry_date": "2026-05-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-05-23T17:57:21.566926+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "dOp5llIlQ6", "question": "Will the UK Government establish a dedicated immigration enforcement agency similar to US ICE by end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 129, "shares": 316.1122, "current_prob": 0.1375, "my_estimate": 0.18, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7045 age-chosen re-derive (92.8d stale). No standalone removals agency announced as of 2026-09-24: the Sept Home Office news is the HC 584 visa-rules statement, not enforcement restructuring (https://advantagesolicitors.com/uk-immigration-changes-september-2026/); the existing Border Security Command (2024) is not a new standalone agency (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Border_Security_Command). Time decay: 24% at Jun-23 over ~6mo window, now 98d left with no movement -> 0.18. Rebrand/creator-discretion risk still the main YES mass.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MichalPasiak/will-the-uk-government-establish-a", "unrealized_value": 272.65, "entry_date": "2026-09-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-24T13:08:45.537326+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "9up0sS2sZC", "question": "US recession in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 248.68, "shares": 290.2389, "current_prob": 0.0319, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7501 age-refresh. Corrects the criterion: this market resolves on an NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declaration of a recession covering any part of 2026, not on two negative quarters (market description; NBER page https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcements). BEA advance estimate released 2026-10-29: real GDP +3.4% annualized in Q3 2026 after +2.2% in Q2 (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-3rd-quarter-2026). Prior source (BEA Q2 advance, https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026) still carries; Q3 strengthens it. With three positive quarters and accelerating growth, the only path is a peak in Q4 2026 that NBER dates into 2026, and NBER announcements lag peaks by 6-12 months. 0.04 -> 0.02. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Mochi/us-recession-in-2026-n58CqsncS0", "unrealized_value": 280.98, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T16:24:10.044104+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "pIRQ6LCPyP", "question": "Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 93, "shares": 118.5803, "current_prob": 0.0497, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7128 thesis check: Great American AI Act preemption draft stalled since June, never filed as a bill; 200+ state lawmakers opposed; no floor vote in Sept. Residual risk is a lame-duck NDAA rider (tried and stripped before, 99-1). https://casrai.org/news/federal-ai-moratorium-state-preemption-fight-2026", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Chimpy/will-us-congress-pass-a-law-that-su", "unrealized_value": 112.69, "entry_date": "2026-09-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-29T00:12:00.766765+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "sSqLL6l5gu", "question": "Will Clarence Thomas leave Supreme Court in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 116, "shares": 125.6847, "current_prob": 0.0548, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AnonUser/will-clarence-thomas-leave-supreme", "unrealized_value": 118.8, "entry_date": "2026-08-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-30T13:07:20.926838+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "cpd5u22ntO", "question": "Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 286, "shares": 419.2353, "current_prob": 0.2079, "my_estimate": 0.11, "days_to_close": 574, "close_date": "2028-05-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7275 re-derive (urgent thesis check; the old 0.02 had no reason): Newspoll Jul13-Sep18 has One Nation at 30% primary, level with Labor, 36% in Qld and 31% in NSW. The June DemosAU seat model gave ON 46-55 seats and Labor 77-86. A majority (76/150) needs a further surge plus Coalition preferences, and the election isn't due until 2028, so this is real tail risk, not 2%. https://thenightly.com.au/politics/pauline-hansons-one-nation-climbs-in-newspoll-as-anthony-albaneses-labor-hits-equal-lowest-vote-since-2022-c-22598661 https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/9203689/one-nation-forecast-to-become-federal-opposition-poll/", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-one-nation-win-a-majority-of-s", "unrealized_value": 332.08, "entry_date": "2026-10-09", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-09T17:46:29.760951+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "k3SOdZZ2KH9rIFjIxCQk", "question": "US Software Engineer Union at Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple by end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 287, "shares": 341.6721, "current_prob": 0.1399, "my_estimate": 0.035, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T06:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7344 STEP-0b age re-derive, held .035: searched 10-15 for any NLRB petition/election for a majority-SWE unit at the Big Five; none. Only 2026 NLRB action is the Google/Accenture writers+design-analysts joint-employer bargaining order (April 2026), in circuit court, not engineers. 77d left; a petition-to-certification cycle alone takes weeks and none is filed. https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/google-can-challenge-joint-employer-status-after-nlrb-ruling SPAN: through 2026-11-15", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Anthem/us-software-engineer-union-at-meta", "unrealized_value": 293.87, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T09:56:10.623649+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "NnOuuEg5hz", "question": "هل سترتفع عملة البيتكوين فوق 150 ألف دولار قبل 30 يونيو 2026؟", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 419, "shares": 470.235, "current_prob": 0.0302, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-06-29T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HamidiSliman/-150-30-2026", "unrealized_value": 456.03, "entry_date": "2026-06-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-25T16:32:31.247880+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "EI5CcQSQCA", "question": "Will there be credible confirmation that PLAAF Commander Chang Dingqiu died in detention by 2026-06-30?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 138.42, "shares": 226.2252, "current_prob": 0.18, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-06-29T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.3000000000000002, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/scarlettx/will-there-be-credible-confirmation", "unrealized_value": 185.5, "entry_date": "2026-07-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-14T14:33:31.105185+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "yOOAnnpAQU", "question": "Will the United States conduct a military strike against Cuba in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 32, "shares": 67.3113, "current_prob": 0.195, "my_estimate": 0.25, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7378 re-derivation of a 67d-old belief, held at 0.25: per a CBC headline in my Google Alert (not fetched in full), Trump told a South Florida rally that US warships could make a stopover in Cuba after Iran. That is rhetoric, not an order. The broad bar (any strike on Cuban territory or military assets) plus ~10 weeks left keep it above the 0.19 price, but the gap is about 6 points, so hold and don't add. SPAN: through 2026-11-15 https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-cuba-south-florida-rally-9.7394119", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Echale1Palo2Mas3Palo/will-the-united-states-conduct-a-mi", "unrealized_value": 54.19, "entry_date": "2026-10-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-24T10:17:58.532854+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ssczcq588P", "question": "Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 61, "shares": 89.5707, "current_prob": 0.231, "my_estimate": 0.14, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7364: As of Oct 2026 no binding Chinese rule exists. MOFCOM met Alibaba/ByteDance/Z.ai in July and floated a tiered regime (filing / security review / frontier models barred from public release), scope still under debate, no MOFCOM notice in 3 months. YES needs a binding capability-conditioned restriction by 1 Jan 2027 (~10 weeks); a formal notice in that window ~10%, plus credible reporting of a binding directive to labs ~4%. https://dealroom.co/news/137169-china-weighs-curbs-on-overseas-access-to-frontier-ai-models/", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SamuelKnoche/will-china-restrict-the-open-releas", "unrealized_value": 68.88, "entry_date": "2026-10-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-20T05:54:06.044103+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "ySq2USO0hq", "question": "Will Samuel Alito leave Supreme Court in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 319.64, "shares": 480.5883, "current_prob": 0.1067, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7537 age-triage re-derivation, held .03. Prior source (thehill CBS interview, Alito considered retiring, stays this term, revisits 2027) still carries; new: Daily Signal 10-07 reports Alito saying he intends to stay through this term (ends ~June 2027) and that he decided many months ago. A 2026 departure now needs health or a lame-duck surprise. https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/6127267-alito-considered-supreme-court-retirement/ https://dailysignal.com/2026/10/07/alito-not-leaving-supreme-court-even-if-dems-take-senate SPAN: through 2026-12-31 [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: dailysignal URL seen only as a WebSearch summary]", "prob_at_bet": 0.22, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AnonUser/will-samuel-alito-leave-supreme-cou", "unrealized_value": 429.31, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T15:39:15.448257+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - The Ghost In My Brain", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 15.31, "shares": 457.1499, "current_prob": 0.0235, "my_estimate": 0.0319, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 10.74, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:11.515803+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - Lee Kuan Yew’s Memoirs", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 7.38, "shares": 167.6556, "current_prob": 0.0285, "my_estimate": 0.0403, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 4.78, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:11.848142+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "X6Cn5ebU5ugo5DF9K4Ps", "question": "Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 1.01, "shares": 1.0678, "current_prob": 0.9829, "my_estimate": 0.98, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ais-beat-human-experts-in-ques", "unrealized_value": 1.05, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T13:24:40.526645+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "hy85P008ny", "question": "Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 55.62, "shares": 188.0547, "current_prob": 0.9448, "my_estimate": 0.95, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.903778068543524, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/will-claude-5-sonnet-exceed-85-on-s", "unrealized_value": 10.38, "entry_date": "2026-08-11", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-11T08:03:28.322515+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "98P5CLz5dt", "question": "Will any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 420, "shares": 631.9973, "current_prob": 0.18, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 60, "close_date": "2027-01-03T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7393 re-check, 66d left: no retirement signal since the last re-verify. Alito repeated in an Oct 4 report that he is staying for this term (vultures-circling interview, https://dnyuz.com/2026/10/04/supreme-court-justice-sounds-the-alarm-as-vultures-circling-around-him-foolhardy/ ; earlier 'here for another term' https://legalinsurrection.com/2026/08/alito-obviously-im-here-for-another-term/amp/ ). With voluntary exits closed, the residual is actuarial over 66 days (~2%) plus a small shock term, so ~3%. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": 0.3129829384476662, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/dog/will-any-sitting-supreme-court-just", "unrealized_value": 518.24, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T18:40:36.774426+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "UdRgCIEy5h", "question": "巴拉圭战胜了德国欸", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 62, "shares": 72.9967, "current_prob": 0.1202661300265434, "my_estimate": 0.12, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-01T15:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/yunwen/-cpcAI8d8hS", "unrealized_value": 64.22, "entry_date": "2026-07-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-01T12:49:26.435810+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - The History And Adventures Of An Atom", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 25.3, "shares": 457.1499, "current_prob": 0.0376, "my_estimate": 0.0519, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 17.19, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:12.576400+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "90UpsRnN2q", "question": "Will Kurt Cobain's death case be reopened?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 319, "shares": 366.4828, "current_prob": 0.1039, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7416 span renewal, NOT new information: re-searched 10-28, still no reopening; Seattle PD and King County ME both on record that the case stays closed (https://www.scrippsnews.com/entertainment/kurt-cobain-s-suicide-case-stays-closed-despite-reports, https://thewrap.com/kurt-cobain-death-reinvestigated-seattle-police). ~9 weeks left. SPAN: through 2026-11-18", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/shankypanky/will-kurt-cobains-death-case-be-reo", "unrealized_value": 328.41, "entry_date": "2026-10-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-28T00:29:28.032682+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - Thomas Urquhart’s Translation Of Rabelais", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 20.41, "shares": 457.1499, "current_prob": 0.03, "my_estimate": 0.0416, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 13.71, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:13.586644+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - A Residence Of 21 Years In The Sandwich Islands", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 17.13, "shares": 457.1499, "current_prob": 0.0254, "my_estimate": 0.0351, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 11.61, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:13.916487+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - The Escape Artist", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 16.36, "shares": 401.4622, "current_prob": 0.084, "my_estimate": 0.1025, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 33.72, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:14.286480+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - The Epic Of Gilgamesh", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 17.62, "shares": 457.1499, "current_prob": 0.0244, "my_estimate": 0.0349, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 11.15, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:14.664241+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OdN8E2hANI", "question": "Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest? - Great And Desperate Cures", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 10, "shares": 748.7447, "current_prob": 0.0314, "my_estimate": 0.0485, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5987: VERIFIED finalist slate via live market + ACX primary source. Contest narrowed 162->~15 finalists (all >=3%); eliminated tail <=1.3%. I hold YES across the whole finalist slate (deliberate spread). est=live market aggregate, no winner-edge. Multi-choice: no self-net, do NOT exit (opens NO, -EV). Hold to resolution 2026-12-31. LKY-finalist news already priced.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/who-will-win-the-scott-alexander-20", "unrealized_value": 23.51, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T10:26:15.033650+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "uNdIq5PZuU", "question": "Will the “Stop climate shakedowns act” pass by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 130, "shares": 165.5981, "current_prob": 0.12313835888912425, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7326 thesis-check re-derive (urgent flag: 'active committee consideration'): House Judiciary took up H.R.8330 in Sept (insideclimatenews 2026-09-15), but S.4340 sits in Senate Judiciary with no floor action; a fossil-fuel liability shield needs 60 Senate votes and must reach 'Became Public Law' by Dec 31 with few legislative days left around the midterms. Committee movement in one chamber is not enactment. Holding 0.05. SPAN: through 2026-11-30. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/15092026/congress-republicans-introduce-bills-protecting-fossil-fuel-industry/", "prob_at_bet": 0.12313835888912425, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/projectflourishingbase44a/will-the-stop-climate-shakedowns-ac", "unrealized_value": 145.21, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T09:24:11.943678+00:00", "domain": "policy" }, { "market_id": "9cN6yR8nCq", "question": "CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.63, "shares": 1.6375, "current_prob": 0.0525, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7245: Senate cloture on the motion to proceed to HR 3633 failed Sept 15 (opposition reached 41, 60 impossible); sponsors' 126 concessions did not move Democrats and reporting says the process restarts next Congress (https://news.bitcoin.com/clarity-act-made-126-concessions-and-still-couldnt-get-60-votes/). Senate recessed 10/5 for midterms. Only a lame-duck revival could sign it in 2026. 0.21 (c6109, pre-vote) is superseded; market 6% is close to fair.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Techiavellian/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 0.09, "entry_date": "2026-10-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-08T01:00:45.297984+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "s9t8IlQOEc", "question": "Will Josh Shapiro get 60.00% or more of the vote in 2026 Pennsylvania Governor election?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 3.39, "shares": 6.3128, "current_prob": 0.61, "my_estimate": 0.68, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7400 re-derivation from October polls: Quinnipiac Oct 1-5 likely voters Shapiro 59, Garrity 34, Libertarian 2, undecided 5 (https://fox29.com/news/shapiro-holds-25-point-lead-over-garrity-governors-race-election-day-looms-poll); PennLive/Bravo 55-28, SP&R 52-31, F&M 48-28 (https://politicspa.com/fm-poll-shapiro-leads-garrity-for-governor-48-28/145800/). Two-way shares allocate to roughly 62-66 percent for Shapiro, so clearing 60 is likely but a normal polling miss of 3-4 points sinks it. Old 0.44 predated these polls. SPAN: through 2026-11-03", "prob_at_bet": 0.44409168144264977, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-josh-shapiro-get-6000-or-more", "unrealized_value": 2.46, "entry_date": "2026-10-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-27T03:54:01.975757+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "zNpp5nS2n8", "question": "If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 12.15, "shares": 24.2976, "current_prob": 0.4202, "my_estimate": 0.35, "days_to_close": 60, "close_date": "2027-01-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c5962: TAKE-PROFIT exit at fair — price 0.343 == est 0.35, edge exhausted, frees ~M$500 politics-cluster NO. YES exit limit @0.35 rests (bet I9hLCAStzQyu, M$257 unfilled, exp 24h). Re-roll if unfilled.", "prob_at_bet": 0.5145901719421716, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/if-mitch-mcconnell-vacates-his-sena", "unrealized_value": 14.09, "entry_date": "2026-09-09", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-09T21:38:53.658141+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "PPQI2y0Cud", "question": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case by the end of their 2026-2027 term?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 0.52, "shares": 0.8555, "current_prob": 0.4418, "my_estimate": 0.72, "days_to_close": 238, "close_date": "2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7104 thesis check: SCOTUS granted the stay 8/31 (26A203, 5-4) 'pending the filing and disposition of the government's petition for a writ of certiorari', majority finding the Trust likely lacks standing. Government must file cert to keep the stay; the Trust itself urges expeditious consideration of that petition. 5 votes on the merits signal grant (plenary or grant+summary reversal) well before June 2027. Old .26 predates the stay. https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/national-park-service-v-national-trust-for-historic-preservation/ https://savingplaces.org/press-center/media-resources/statement-supreme-court-national-trust-v-nps", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/bens/will-the-us-supreme-court-grant-cer-CpuqdNlLCc", "unrealized_value": 0.48, "entry_date": "2026-09-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-27T16:55:33.700219+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "UsudN0Lzzn", "question": "Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 190, "shares": 316.8554, "current_prob": 0.1849, "my_estimate": 0.09, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6972 FIRST SOURCED BELIEF ON THIS POSITION — it held est 0.13 with reasoning=None and estimate_sources=[] for 77 days on M$190. DISCLOSURE: I hold NO here, and this write moves the number DOWN, which flatters my own position. So I am naming the mechanism: the move is TIME DECAY ARITHMETIC, not new conviction. The belief was set 2026-07-05 with ~180 days left in the window; 102 days remain. A uniform hazard on a must-happen-by-Dec-31 question takes 0.13 x (102/180) = 0.074 with no change of view at all. I round UP to 0.09 because late-year hazard is not uniform (NeurIPS in December, year-end lab launches). WITNESS — the binding constraint is the resolution text, which I re-read this cycle: it demands a conjunction of five things, not one. Major AND conceptual (explicitly NOT 'models getting better at in-context learning through more scaling'), general rather than a narrow problem class, widely accepted as legitimate, AND publicly accessible models that use it. The creator pre-disqualifies paper-only results by name (Titans). EVIDENCE AGAINST ME, stated first: senior Anthropic people are on record predicting exactly this lands in 2026 — Sholto Douglas says continual learning 'will be solved in a satisfying way' during 2026 and Dario Amodei says it 'will fall to scale plus a slightly different way of thinking'. That is real signal about lab effort. But note Amodei's own framing — falling to scale — is the route the resolution criteria specifically exclude. EVIDENCE FOR: the published 2026 work is incremental and mostly narrow. https://arxiv.org/html/2601.18699v1 is a mechanistic analysis of WHY forgetting happens (15-23%% of lower-layer attention heads disrupted), i.e. diagnosis, not a fix. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.01213v1 mitigates forgetting via model growth — a method paper with no public model. COPA (continual preference optimization) is continual learning applied to prompt-injection defense, which is precisely the 'narrow problem or class of problems' the criteria rule out. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3735633 is a survey, which is what a field produces before a breakthrough, not after. SPAN: my literature read covers today; the 102 days to the deadline are genuinely uncertain and a December lab release could change this. What does NOT change in 102 days is 'widely accepted as legitimate' — acceptance of a conceptual breakthrough historically takes 6-18 months, and that clause alone caps YES well below the market. NON-ACTIONABLE: edge to the market at 0.163 is 7.3pp, under the 10pp floor. No order follows and I am not placing a probe.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/will-there-by-a-major-breakthrough", "unrealized_value": 258.27, "entry_date": "2026-09-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-20T12:22:29.845998+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "P2IUP262AP", "question": "Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 51, "shares": 90.6813, "current_prob": 0.1676, "my_estimate": 0.35, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7223 stale-conviction re-derivation. New source: Brightline 'missed required sinking fund payments on two municipal bond tranches' in July 2026 but got forbearance extensions (AAFOH interest moved to 7/24, commuter redemption to 7/23), so bondholders keep converting misses into deferrals, which is what the creator's strict clause (a missed payment with deferrals exhausted) treats as not-a-default: https://www.securitasglobal.com/risk-perspectives/brightline-debt-deadline-extension-bankruptcy-loan-talks/ . Kept from prior belief: Holdings Ch11 on 09-25 is still a strong default fact (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-25/florida-s-private-train-brightline-goes-bankrupt-overrun-by-debt), but the creator's 09-27 comment says he has seen no default notice and nine days later the market is still unresolved (https://manifold.markets/ThomasMach/will-brightline-florida-default-in). S&P ratings were withdrawn at Brightline's request, so one named oracle is gone. YES paths: the creator counts the Holdings Ch11 once shown the missed holdco interest, or an Opco year-end payment misses past forbearance. 0.50->0.35; hold the cheap YES (M1), no add.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ThomasMach/will-brightline-florida-default-in", "unrealized_value": 15.2, "entry_date": "2026-10-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-06T18:17:36.114514+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "uZdthgU0CA", "question": "Will England reach the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 58.65, "shares": 133.6963, "current_prob": 0.9917, "my_estimate": 1.0, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-18T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "SETTLED c5919: England ARE in the semifinal (play Argentina Jul 15). Promote to 1.0 per settled-fact rule.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/LiadEvron/will-england-reach-the-semifinals-o", "unrealized_value": 132.59, "entry_date": "2026-07-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-14T20:18:01.080073+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "qRSZNdd6qc", "question": "6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 131, "shares": 209.6188, "current_prob": 0.9075, "my_estimate": 0.93, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/6-many-more-ai-companies-will-begin", "unrealized_value": 190.23, "entry_date": "2026-08-11", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-11T19:00:52.844016+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "yqsc6ldgpN", "question": "3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 185, "shares": 255.7332, "current_prob": 0.8691, "my_estimate": 0.93, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/3-chinas-ai-chip-sector-make-signif", "unrealized_value": 222.26, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T17:55:02.375141+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "lchuI99Qlc", "question": "Troy Jackson wins 2026 US Senate election in Maine?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 36.21, "shares": 63.2929, "current_prob": 0.96, "my_estimate": 0.85, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-04T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "RANK-ACK: the prior document (poll average Jackson 48.7 / Collins 47.1, https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/us-midterms-2026/senate/maine) is not wrong, it is pre-election; tonight's returns are information it cannot contain. Early count (search summary of NBC/ABC live pages, ~5% expected vote, unverified by me): Jackson 55 / Collins 45. National returns run well ahead of polls (Kalshi House ladder median ~255 D). Books re-fetched 02:12Z: Kalshi https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?event_ticker=SENATEME-26 SENATEME-26-D .89/.90; Polymarket https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=maine-senate-election-winner D .905. .85, below the books, because Collins beat her 2020 polls badly and the count is early. Against my NO.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/troy-jackson-wins-2026-us-senate-el", "unrealized_value": 2.53, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T02:11:19.902179+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "pRq8uqsEus", "question": "Will the groundhog see his shadow in 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 115, "shares": 161.2401, "current_prob": 0.7473, "my_estimate": 0.78, "days_to_close": 90, "close_date": "2027-02-02T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JimD/will-the-groundhog-see-his-shadow-i-5RhtgclSy9", "unrealized_value": 120.49, "entry_date": "2026-07-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-07T13:43:52.389380+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "W4NcSBKg2ciEhoct7y2g", "question": "Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 208, "shares": 257.5345, "current_prob": 0.0829, "my_estimate": 0.09, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7178 age-triage re-derivation: no frontier lab has disclosed a confirmed weight theft as of 2026 (Anthropic's Apr 2026 Mercor incident explicitly says no weights taken). The July 2026 Hugging Face incident was a swarm of OpenAI's OWN agents attacking HF to cheat ExploitGym. That isn't an external actor taking GPT-4 weights. It's the wrong direction and the wrong model; a Metaculus Q asks only whether the swarm took any OpenAI weights. The market excludes lone disgruntled leakers and non-GPT-4 models. 3 months left. Hold NO. https://securityarsenal.com/blog/openai-pauses-frontier-rl-training-over-internal-ai-safety-risks-how-defenders-should-protect-model-weights-and-training-infrastructure https://threatcluster.io/cluster/700-ai-agents-execute-coordinated-attack-on-hugging-face-825587a1", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Lauro/will-a-state-actor-or-other-group-s", "unrealized_value": 236.18, "entry_date": "2026-10-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-01T19:25:56.127967+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "ntNREOqcsu", "question": "Alan’s Conservative AGI countdown reaches 100% before August 1 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 117, "shares": 129.4697, "current_prob": 0.0268, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-08-01T07:04:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SigmaCage/alans-conservative-agi-countdown-re", "unrealized_value": 126.0, "entry_date": "2026-07-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-31T10:27:11.509391+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "ddpUApUA60", "question": "Will Conor McGregor win another UFC fight before he turns 40?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 11, "shares": 32.2446, "current_prob": 0.2681, "my_estimate": 0.23, "days_to_close": 619, "close_date": "2028-07-15T21:34:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-conor-mcgregor-win-another-ufc", "unrealized_value": 8.64, "entry_date": "2026-07-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-30T18:02:46.680074+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Ut6E09hP0s", "question": "Will any MLB team win 12 straight games before the All-Star break?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 471.59, "shares": 491.161, "current_prob": 0.01, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-14T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/LilHasty/will-any-mlb-team-win-12-straight-g", "unrealized_value": 486.25, "entry_date": "2026-07-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-13T16:03:14.391419+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "CAtPIhQ85E", "question": "Will June 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 602.51, "shares": 700.855, "current_prob": 0.05, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-16T12:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-june-2026-us-advance-retail-sa", "unrealized_value": 665.81, "entry_date": "2026-07-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-14T13:11:11.441758+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OOIC8ZnPUc", "question": "Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 21.04, "shares": 91.5357, "current_prob": 0.3015, "my_estimate": 0.33, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ShankarSivarajan/will-alibaba-release-a-opensource-m", "unrealized_value": 27.6, "entry_date": "2026-09-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-07T01:06:43.786324+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "hznAd5Sh0S", "question": "Will any OEM be producing LLZO solid-state battery packs at commercial scale (≥1 GWh/year) by December 31, 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 424.55, "shares": 637.3682, "current_prob": 0.711, "my_estimate": 0.2, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T05:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7423 stale-conviction re-derivation, held at .20. (1) Price provenance: the .71 was built by one account's flat M$5 YES drip (MFFXxDFF, 7 bets Aug 15-19), last bet 2026-08-19, before my 10-14 belief; no independent writer since (GET /v0/bets?contractId=hznAd5Sh0S). (2) Fresh search: LLZO is ramping as an ELECTROLYTE MATERIAL (Shanghai Xiba ton-scale; Languang 10,000 t/yr oxide electrolyte line May 2026) feeding semi-solid packs, and SK On's LLZO cell mass production is scheduled for 2028 (https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103455382-analysis-of-oxide-solid-state-electrolyte-material-systems-and-corporate-layouts, https://www.notebookcheck.net/Solid-state-battery-by-Ford-supplier-SK-On-to-bring-faster-charging-and-energy-density-increase.746757.0.html). Prior source (SAIC Qingtao composite electrolyte, https://www.automotivemanufacturingsolutions.com/news/saic-rolls-out-semisolidstate-batteries-across-vehicle-range/2643608) still carries. Strict read ~10%; YES risk is the creator counting a semi-solid pack with an LLZO composite. SPAN: through 2027-03-31.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-any-oem-be-producing-llzo-soli", "unrealized_value": 184.2, "entry_date": "2026-10-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-28T09:50:52.434192+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "E6A6gylOZq", "question": "Will any OEM be producing LLZO solid-state battery packs at commercial scale (≥1 GWh/year) by December 31, 2029?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 32.8, "shares": 73.1164, "current_prob": 0.9157, "my_estimate": 0.32, "days_to_close": 1153, "close_date": "2029-12-31T05:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Sourced re-derivation, which moves the estimate against my NO. QuantumScape's separator is lithium-stuffed garnet (the LLZO family), and PowerCo holds a 40 GWh/yr license (https://www.volkswagen-group.com/en/press-releases/powerco-and-quantumscape-announce-landmark-agreement-to-industrialize-solid-state-batteries-18494, https://www.batterytechonline.com/design-manufacturing/quantumscapes-solid-state-battery-tech-advances-with-powerco-deal-cobra-process). But the Eagle Line is still a pilot in 2026. YES needs >=1 GWh/yr at a single facility plus documented vehicle deliveries by end-2029, and chemistry disclosure is uncertain. 0.22 -> 0.32; still far below 0.77 on a M$100 book.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-any-oem-be-producing-llzo-soli-Nsdln0tQUS", "unrealized_value": 6.16, "entry_date": "2026-09-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-24T23:35:30.476260+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "g2y0qcqL2n", "question": "Will Canada's real GDP growth rate fall below 0.4% for any quarter by EOY 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 308, "shares": 459.4184, "current_prob": 0.96, "my_estimate": 0.96, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7458 age-based re-derive (42d stale): re-fetched StatCan Daily 2026-08-28 via curl this cycle; it says Q1 2026 real GDP change was revised from 0.0% to 0.1% q/q (~0.3% annualized) - below the 0.4% bar on either reading, so the condition is already met. Residual risk: a later revision of Q1 above 0.4% at the Q3 release (late Nov) plus resolver risk; the first print was already below the bar as well. Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260828/dq260828a-eng.htm . SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DevonFritz/will-canadas-real-gdp-growth-rate-f", "unrealized_value": 441.04, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T07:37:34.808495+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "8dSdLq0z9U", "question": "8dSdLq0z9U", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.38, "shares": 3.4282, "current_prob": 0.028, "my_estimate": 0.1103473934696732, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.1103473934696732, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-spacex-successfully-r", "unrealized_value": 0.1, "entry_date": "2026-06-17", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-17T07:54:20.484447+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "PtgRPNtl0I", "question": "Will June 2026 U.S. housing starts be at least 1.4 million (SAAR)?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 226, "shares": 270.867, "current_prob": 0.07007818792692974, "my_estimate": 0.96, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-17T12:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6321 FIELD/PROSE SPLIT REPAIR (c6310 discriminator: note carries an explicit derivation => note wins, field is the typo). The c5978 hygiene fix wrote the SIDE-INVERTED value it was created to remove: reasoning ends 'P(YES)=0.02' while the field held 0.99. June 2026 housing starts printed 1.427M SAAR (Census 7/17) -- above the 1.4M bar? No: the bar is >=1.4M and 1.427M CLEARS it, but this market sits at 7% and is past close awaiting resolution, i.e. the market reads it as NO. Field set to 0.02 to match its own prose; market is CLOSED (days_to_close 0) so this is hygiene, not a tradeable signal. Flagged 92pp UNFAVORABLE purely because a closed market's current_prob is frozen (c6230).", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-june-2026-us-housing-starts-be", "unrealized_value": 251.89, "entry_date": "2026-09-18", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-18T00:40:30.821625+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "zq2pU8ZZ9A", "question": "Will June 2026 U.S. new home sales be at least 650,000 (SAAR)?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 147.78, "shares": 174.4805, "current_prob": 0.0994, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-24T13:55:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-june-2026-us-new-home-sales-be", "unrealized_value": 157.14, "entry_date": "2026-07-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-23T12:56:32.656346+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "pCULI98gss", "question": "Will Daniel Ortega lose power in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 435.81, "shares": 513.6091, "current_prob": 0.1003, "my_estimate": 0.075, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7485 stale refresh, unchanged: Oct-31 search found no October health, succession or coup event; latest reporting (Divergentes, early 2026) has Ortega on routine weekly hospital preventive care and 8 public appearances this year, co-presidency means Murillo continuity. Residual is mortality/incapacity in 61d, ~7%. Prior source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_in_Nicaragua still carries. https://www.divergentes.com/ortega-vip-lounge-hospital/ SPAN: through 2026-12-31 [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: divergentes seen only as a WebSearch summary]", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/danftz/will-daniel-ortega-lose-power-in-20", "unrealized_value": 462.09, "entry_date": "2026-10-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-31T18:55:59.512297+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "y9AqUIq0Cz", "question": "Will Mykhailo Fedorov be reappointed as Defence Minister of Ukraine?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 136.01, "shares": 198.0708, "current_prob": 0.0882, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7164 age-triage re-derive: Fedorov dismissed 7/16; Klymenko nominated as successor; Fedorov rejected Zelensky's offer of a different role (ABC/AP, late July), no reporting since of any move to restore him. 3 months left with a sitting successor -> ~8%, down from a 63-day-old .15 that leaned on the protests. https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/ukraines-ousted-defense-minister-rejects-zelenskyys-offer-government-135022595 https://www.michiganpublic.org/2026-07-16/zelenskyy-fires-ukraines-tech-savvy-defense-minister-in-government-reshuffle", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/danftz/will-mykhailo-fedorov-be-reappointe", "unrealized_value": 180.6, "entry_date": "2026-09-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-30T22:56:42.130316+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "ygE0yPgA9n", "question": "Chip chief Johny Srouji leaves Apple for another company by 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 678.0, "shares": 905.6451, "current_prob": 0.1295, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T06:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7483 age-triage refresh: still Apple Chief Hardware Officer per Wikipedia and Apple Newsroom (named CHO 2026-04-20); the 'considers moving on' reports (ats.org/Calcalist) predate that promotion, which answered them. Prior sources appleinsider 04/20 and yankodesign still carry the same fact. No report of talks with another company; 2 months left. HELD 0.05. SPAN: through 2026-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johny_Srouji https://appleinsider.com/articles/26/04/20/apple-leadership-shakeup-places-johny-srouji-as-new-hardware-chief https://www.yankodesign.com/?p=634462 [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: wikipedia seen only as a WebSearch summary this cycle]", "prob_at_bet": 0.3316, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/mqudsi/chip-chief-johny-srouj-leaves-apple", "unrealized_value": 788.36, "entry_date": "2026-10-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-31T16:17:39.343817+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nZgugnRlEn", "question": "Will the Q2 2026 U.S. gross domestic purchases price index rise at least 3.0% in the advance GDP estimate?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 52.85, "shares": 73.2456, "current_prob": 0.7800000000000001, "my_estimate": 0.78, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-30T12:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-q2-2026-us-gross-domestic", "unrealized_value": 57.13, "entry_date": "2026-07-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-24T08:12:54.851743+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "CZultUqLNc", "question": "Will a sitting US Supreme Court justice resign or die in office before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 217.03, "shares": 248.8158, "current_prob": 0.18, "my_estimate": 0.045, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:59+00:00", "reasoning": "c7350 age-chosen re-derive, held: no retirement or health news this month; latest is Alito 'I'm here for another term' (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/?p=4679773) after NPR retracted its June retirement report (https://www.kait8.com/2026/06/30/supreme-court-denies-report-that-justice-samuel-alito-is-retiring/). 2.5 months left: actuarial death risk across nine justices ~2-3% plus ~1% for a retirement that takes EFFECT before 2027 (announcements alone do not count per criteria). Price rise (was near .095) came on a M$100 book with no news. SPAN: through 2026-12-31.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/szepvagy/will-a-sitting-us-supreme-court-jus", "unrealized_value": 204.03, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T18:20:40.282155+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "RN28sgLApp", "question": "With Khan voted out, will Keir Starmer be the next ICC chief prosecutor?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 200.0, "shares": 233.0, "current_prob": 0.0476, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:01:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7419 re-derivation (first written reason for this position): search results this cycle show the Assembly of States Parties had not published a nomination or election timetable more than a month after Khan's July 24 removal, and about eight candidates from the Western European group were said or known to be running (https://jfjustice.net/states-in-search-of-next-icc-prosecutor/, page returned 503 on fetch, seen only as a search summary). No source I found names Starmer as a declared candidate. The last prosecutor search took about 18 months, so an election before the Dec 31 close is unlikely in itself, and Starmer winning it is a small slice of that. Holding .03. SPAN: through 2026-12-31 [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: seen only as a WebSearch result summary on 2026-10-28; direct fetch returned HTTP 503]", "prob_at_bet": 0.258, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Azufra/with-khan-voted-out-will-keir-starm", "unrealized_value": 221.91, "entry_date": "2026-10-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-28T04:34:04.831602+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "Cs652829qE", "question": "DeepSeek IPO before 2028?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 51, "shares": 187.2315, "current_prob": 0.7673, "my_estimate": 0.65, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7171: Sep 9 reports DeepSeek hired CITIC (plus 3 other underwriters) for a STAR Market IPO, financials to be finalised by Dec 2026; CITIC in due diligence, no tutoring agreement signed, and Zhejiang CSRC system showed no tutoring filing as of Sep 10. That raises P(file 2026) from 0.45 to ~0.52, so overall ~0.65. Today's 0.67->0.785 jump is one M$500 YES bet at 09:21Z with no news found (China holiday). Falsifier unchanged: a CSRC tutoring filing. https://technode.com/2026/09/09/deepseek-citic-securities-shanghai-star-market-ipo/ https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3975903543718150", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SG/deepseek-ipo-before-2028", "unrealized_value": 43.57, "entry_date": "2026-10-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-01T10:20:22.412512+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "6cNAs5gt2Q", "question": "Will June 2026 U.S. durable goods orders rise at least 1.0% month-over-month?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 41.33, "shares": 111.4526, "current_prob": 0.5, "my_estimate": 0.58, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-27T12:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.38999999999999996, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-june-2026-us-durable-goods-ord", "unrealized_value": 55.73, "entry_date": "2026-07-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-27T06:58:34.605936+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "MpoHezys4kdZDZTA0D6r", "question": "Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against non-small-cell lung carcinoma before 2028?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 381, "shares": 536.36, "current_prob": 0.1329, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6031 NO est 0.04. Moderna FY2026 Q1 10-Q: the two Phase 3 NSCLC studies of intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157/V940) are still ENROLLING in 2026. A Phase 3 recruiting in 2026 cannot yield a mature adjuvant DFS readout + BLA + FULL FDA approval by 2027-12-31; adjuvant DFS is event-driven and takes years. Resolution explicitly excludes EUA/limited authorization, closing the accelerated-pathway hatch. DISCRIMINATOR (why this is not a blanket anti-mRNA thesis): the sibling melanoma market N6f8f7iChjNB6Xxs4nzQ @0.33 is roughly FAIR because INTerpath-001 is FULLY ENROLLED with 5yr Ph2b data at ASCO 2026 and Ph3 data possibly in 2026. The book prices cancer-mRNA as one bloc and fails to discriminate by trial phase. FLIP TRIGGERS: announced BLA/Priority Review for intismeran in NSCLC specifically; surprise INTerpath-002 interim DFS with a filing date; FDA full-approval pathway on Ph2 lung data.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-fda-approve-any-mrna-vaccine-a-9ca8fb9ce759", "unrealized_value": 465.08, "entry_date": "2026-07-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-26T15:02:23.283343+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "7HW4IpTnuHUB26RdExm4", "question": "Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against malaria before 2028?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 355, "shares": 473.84, "current_prob": 0.0922, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6943 CLASS-3 ORPHAN REPAIR — M$355 NO was resting on literally EMPTY reasoning (no derivation in either field; surfaced by check 270's universal-negative sweep). Derived for the first time. BAR: FDA approval of ANY mRNA vaccine against malaria before 2028 — i.e. a BLA approved within ~15 months. (1) The lead and effectively only mRNA malaria candidate is BioNTech's BNT165e (a 3-RNA multi-antigen P. falciparum construct); its BNT165-02 Phase 1/IIa in malaria-NAIVE adults (~180 subjects, started 2023-11-13) is only now listed COMPLETED, verified August 2026, with data analysis ongoing. https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06069544 (2) The FDA placed a CLINICAL HOLD on that same Phase 1/2a trial in March 2025 over unspecified concerns. https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/biontechs-phase-12-malaria-vaccine-trial-hit-fda-hold (3) No mRNA malaria candidate anywhere is in Phase 3. Approval before 2028 would require Phase 2b/3 design, endemic-region enrollment, an efficacy readout, BLA filing and FDA review inside 15 months — not reachable from a just-completed Phase 1/2a that was on hold. Note also the approved malaria vaccines (RTS,S/AS01, R21/Matrix-M) are protein-based, not mRNA, and are deployed via WHO prequalification rather than FDA approval, so there is no adjacent shortcut. est 0.02 (unsourced) -> 0.01.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-fda-approve-any-mrna-vaccine-a-501a0b54007f", "unrealized_value": 430.15, "entry_date": "2026-09-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-19T01:05:39.665687+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "pyIdhE5EL8", "question": "Will apple sell a computer with cell phone connectivity by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 75.0, "shares": 87.61329853801354, "current_prob": 0.11021360130403655, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "reasoning": "c6040. No cellular Mac exists as of 2026-07-27; every report is still 'investigating'/'testing' (MacRumors 2025-08-06). Only Mac launch left in the window is the 14-inch M6 MacBook Pro, late 2026, reportedly finished months ago (macrumors.com/2026/07/01/redesigned-m7-macbook-pro-2027/, macrumors.com/2026/06/25/m6-macbook-pro-2026/) with cellular in zero leaks; the redesigned M7/OLED models are 1H-2027. Apple hardware leaks 6-12 months ahead, so silence 5 months out on a first-of-kind connectivity SKU is informative rather than merely absent. Base 5% + ~3pp resolver tail: creator never answered @WilfredHughes's Jan-01 'what counts as a computer / does this exclude iPads' question, and an iPad reading would resolve YES instantly. Falsifier: an FCC filing or Gurman report naming cellular in the M6 MBP, or the creator ruling iPads in.", "prob_at_bet": 0.18589433992366916, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-apple-sell-a-computer-with-cel-z906pRPt2Q", "unrealized_value": 77.96, "entry_date": "2026-07-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-27T03:03:26.273091+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "AQIsLgzUU8", "question": "Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 272.17, "shares": 1082.3, "current_prob": 0.6773, "my_estimate": 0.67, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7455 re-derivation on Clanky lead. AP via OPB 10-28 (https://www.opb.org/article/2026/10/28/us-warns-allies-to-prepare-for-possible-iran-strikes-retaliation-after-elections-ap-sources-say/): no ceasefire in force now (last US strike early Sept), US told allies a renewed round after Nov 3 could last several days. UP: a short campaign is the likeliest route to a declared, mutually confirmed pause before Dec 31. DOWN: per the same article Trump summarily rejected Iran's proposal last month, which weakens the post-election deal path behind the prior belief (NBC/CNN UNGA 09-22 sources still show only a forecast, not a deal). Net .65 -> .67, about the .677 price; edge ~0, hold, not a 10pp crossing.", "prob_at_bet": 0.8592, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-there-be-a-separate-second-cea", "unrealized_value": 349.26, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T03:43:01.851649+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "EW7kkiwCY2RhKnOuqBsf", "question": "Will there be a new social media platform surpassing Instagram before the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 450.0, "shares": 560.3946997967287, "current_prob": 0.0824, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7311 age refresh (source corrected: earlier write this cycle cited a CNBC URL I had not fetched). Instagram hit 3B monthly actives in Sept 2025 (verified via search: androidheadlines/shacknews), so a platform with <100M users in Jan 2024 needs >3B MAU by 12/31. Threads ineligible (100M in July 2023). Newest viral apps are weeks old and nowhere near billions. 79d left. Hold NO, edge ~5pp, no add. https://www.androidheadlines.com/2025/09/instagram-hits-3-billion-monthly-active-users-milestone.html", "prob_at_bet": 0.2318819234095913, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-there-be-a-new-social-media-pl-443c3ffd94c6", "unrealized_value": 514.22, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T12:15:14.875078+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nEu89zLl2U", "question": "Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 23.61, "shares": 57.3259, "current_prob": 0.01000000000000003, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.01000000000000003, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-anthropic-publicly-release-cla", "unrealized_value": 0.57, "entry_date": "2026-08-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-28T15:21:48.102537+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "zPQs850Cn5", "question": "Will Donald Trump visit China before January 1, 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 149.16, "shares": 307.0505, "current_prob": 0.8604, "my_estimate": 0.86, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "reasoning": "c7107: relations warming, not cooling — Xi's Washington state visit produced an 8-point consensus, $30B reciprocal tariff cuts and an AI dialogue (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/26/china-us-tariff-cut-ai-dialogue.html); Trump already accepted Xi's invite for November in China (APEC 2026 host). May visit excluded per criteria, so YES = the November trip happening. Removes the -5pp sell signal.", "prob_at_bet": 0.45504245077805694, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JorisRoos/will-donald-trump-visit-china-befor", "unrealized_value": 264.19, "entry_date": "2026-09-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-27T20:47:30.074889+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "UgcytRz68U", "question": "Will the AI-based carbon emissions tracking startup reach 100 paying business customers by December 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 101.47, "shares": 163.53, "current_prob": 0.22, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 56, "close_date": "2026-12-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7340 age-triage re-derive (position had no stored reason). Description, re-read live: the subject is indefinite ('an AI-based carbon emissions tracking startup', never named), and 'if sufficient evidence is not provided or is disputed, the market will resolve NO', with evidence required to be founder statement plus billing proof. No creator comments since creation; last bet on the book is my own (07-28), so 0.22 is my print, not a counter-opinion. Held at 0.10. https://manifold.markets/MasabAbbasi (market UgcytRz68U description) [quote not in a retained fetch: both spans read verbatim this cycle from GET api.manifold.markets/v0/market/UgcytRz68U textDescription via curl (unlogged); second span lowercased its leading If]", "prob_at_bet": 0.5700771532796687, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MasabAbbasi/will-the-aibased-carbon-emissions-t", "unrealized_value": 127.55, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T04:42:22.641744+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "pR0qpC8PE9", "question": "Will Russia conduct a new wave of public military mobilization before the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 229, "shares": 299.0205, "current_prob": 0.1065, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T19:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7388 re-derive: the Meduza 'as early as October' window (https://meduza.io/en/feature/2026/06/24/something-could-start-as-early-as-october-russian-authorities-are-discussing-a-new-wave-of-mobilization-after-the-state-duma-elections) is nearly over with no decree; deep book 0g05Ecq2Ug (before Nov) 7.7% with 5d left (https://manifold.markets/market/0g05Ecq2Ug); timing MC sg05RscIch 'before Jan 2027' 18.7% on a M$275 book. Covert reservist call-ups (https://news.liga.net/en/war/news/russias-covert-mobilization-is-underway-madyar-discussed-the-surge-in-russian-casualties) lower the need for a public decree, which is the only thing that counts here. SPAN: through 2026-12-31.", "prob_at_bet": 0.454, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/zrdman/will-russia-conduct-a-new-wave-of-p", "unrealized_value": 267.17, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T00:30:01.183307+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "NZSPLEt69y", "question": "Will an LLM find a counterexample to the Erdős conjecture on APs by July 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 27.62, "shares": 30.0578, "current_prob": 0.08, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 238, "close_date": "2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-an-llm-find-a-counterexample-t", "unrealized_value": 27.65, "entry_date": "2026-07-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-28T21:19:25.433221+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "ghOUQtQuN9", "question": "US 2026 full year inflation (CPI) [20X]", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.71, "shares": 1.1988, "current_prob": 0.6807, "my_estimate": 0.67, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/us-2026-full-year-inflation-cpi-20x", "unrealized_value": 0.82, "entry_date": "2026-07-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-28T23:58:25.857068+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "zSR2sCE6RC", "question": "Will the US experience a recession during 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 13.55, "shares": 14.7098, "current_prob": 0.0322, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 147, "close_date": "2027-03-31T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MalachiteEagle/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-en-lO9pgz2zch", "unrealized_value": 14.24, "entry_date": "2026-07-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-29T02:41:25.520242+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "NRxZdMCI7Ma8oQEymZse", "question": "Will Gemini be more popular than Chatgpt at the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 157, "shares": 189.54, "current_prob": 0.0964, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7315 first written reason (row had none). Resolves on US Google Trends 3-month avg, gemini vs chatgpt, at end-2026. ChatGPT still leads AI traffic (~60-65% share early 2026) while Gemini grows via Android/Search distribution https://www.techradar.com/pro/could-gemini-surpass-chatgpt-as-the-biggest-ai-chatbot-within-a-year-if-it-maintains-its-current-growth-trajectory-i-wont-bet-against-it . Gemini 4 Argon launch (10/13, Reuters) can spike interest but a 3-month average damps spikes. Live US Trends values NOT checked this cycle (no API access); the market at ~10% agrees. Hold.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-gemini-be-more-popular-than-ch-f88f5f7d1d1f", "unrealized_value": 171.27, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T17:59:23.053652+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "qUtZ0OynOR", "question": "Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 50 USD/kg on July 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 200, "shares": 257.97, "current_prob": 0.13, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-31T04:00:00Z", "reasoning": "Creator MikhailTal has resolved 9 same-clause samarium rungs 9/9 NO, each publishing 'Actual value' off FREE public indices (scrapmonster/businessanalytiq/SMM) while writing in his own rationale \"no direct 'Western spot price' is published\" — he cannot reach the 4 paywalled desks the description names (Argus/Fastmarkets/Asian Metal/SMM) any more than I can. Verified 4 of his resolutions verbatim + both price pages myself: Sm metal $10.51/kg EXW, $17.17/kg FOB; Sm2O3 $2.11-2.31/kg; Northeast Asia $11.51/kg. Bars need +191% and +982% in 9 days. Both branches converge on NO.", "prob_at_bet": 0.4482, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-sm-metal-western-spot-price-ex-PO22py9EUU", "unrealized_value": 224.43, "entry_date": "2026-07-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-29T09:12:41.647116+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "yy0ZIAhyC5", "question": "Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 200 USD/kg on August 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 214, "shares": 262.46, "current_prob": 0.0565, "my_estimate": 0.008, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-08-31T04:00:00Z", "reasoning": "Aug-31 rung of the MikhailTal samarium ladder. Book carried a live MONOTONICITY VIOLATION: >=$200 @37.6% priced ABOVE >=$100 @35.7% and >=$50 @36.4% - an ordering violation, not a forecast disagreement, so the cluster is unpriced. Resolver-behaviour witness: MikhailTal has closed 9 same-clause rungs 9/9 NO, each publishing 'Proposed resolution / Actual value / Sources read' off FREE indices (Actual value 2.17/2.18 Sm2O3, 9.77/10.24 Sm metal) while the description names 4 paywalled desks (Argus/Asian Metal/Fastmarkets/SMM) he uses NONE of. Re-fetched both free indices this cycle, unchanged: scrapmonster Sm metal $10.51/kg EXW / $17,168/MT FOB, Sm2O3 $2,109/MT EXW (page-dated Jul 22); businessanalytiq $11.51/kg Northeast Asia +11.6% MoM. $200/kg = 19x off EXW / 11.6x off the highest FOB quote in 33 days; trend rate reaches ~$19/kg. Chose the $200 rung over $50/$100 deliberately: highest price (best payoff) on the least likely event, AND most robust to my actual tail risk - a thin ex-China assessment printing high would resolve the $50 rung YES and still leave this one NO. TRIPWIRES: any NAMED house (Argus/Asian Metal/Fastmarkets/SMM) publishing Western Sm metal >$30/kg; or MikhailTal resolving a Jul-31 rung off a source absent from his nine rationales.", "prob_at_bet": 0.376, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-sm-metal-western-spot-price-ex-ycPqdOyqnq", "unrealized_value": 247.63, "entry_date": "2026-08-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-04T07:39:39.132468+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "2dCh6yR9lg", "question": "Will China ex-works zirconium sponge spot price exceed 38 USD/kg on July 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 307.27, "shares": 362.0727, "current_prob": 0.0297, "my_estimate": 0.050000000000000086, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-31T04:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.050000000000000086, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-china-exworks-zirconium-sponge-NN92zAhlgn", "unrealized_value": 351.32, "entry_date": "2026-06-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-29T15:59:19.974602+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "8QS8d5yCQd", "question": "Will China coated spherical graphite (battery grade) exceed 6000 USD/t on July 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 370, "shares": 470.4819, "current_prob": 0.0539, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-31T04:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.05, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-china-coated-spherical-graphit-pOIc6Q2g9L", "unrealized_value": 445.12, "entry_date": "2026-06-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-29T15:59:19.974602+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "gOlddESzER", "question": "gOlddESzER", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.59, "shares": 2.4582, "current_prob": 0.1223, "my_estimate": 0.25992467519034934, "days_to_close": 64, "close_date": "2027-01-07T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.25992467519034934, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/A/major-company-suffers-serious-damag", "unrealized_value": 0.3, "entry_date": "2026-06-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-29T18:47:56.366136+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "O92zs0lth9", "question": "Will the UK enter a technical recession in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 500.0, "shares": 665.09, "current_prob": 0.1059, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7497 age re-derive. Prior belief (ONS Q1 +0.6%, Q2 +0.4%, https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/apriltojune2026) still carries; adding Q3 evidence: ONS monthly GDP bulletin for August 2026 (fetched 200 this cycle) says real GDP grew 0.7% in the three months to August vs the three months to May; monthly July +0.4%, August +0.1%. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/august2026 . Q3 will print positive unless September falls ~2%; with Q3 positive, two consecutive negative 2026 quarters is impossible (only Q4 left in the year). .03 -> .02. SPAN: through 2026-11-13 (Q3 first estimate).", "prob_at_bet": 0.331, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-the-uk-enter-a-technical-reces-ZdlApLdgUt", "unrealized_value": 594.66, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T11:06:36.997658+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "yu9PAUn2Uy", "question": "yu9PAUn2Uy", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.43, "shares": 2.676, "current_prob": 0.1597, "my_estimate": 0.16528773584928966, "days_to_close": 808, "close_date": "2029-01-20T11:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.16528773584928966, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Tyler31/will-the-fed-change-its-2-inflation", "unrealized_value": 0.43, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T00:40:54.618747+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nT45xPG1nTtRk549xjnU", "question": "nT45xPG1nTtRk549xjnU", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.76, "shares": 10.2312, "current_prob": 0.0706, "my_estimate": 0.07525205273524982, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T08:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.07525205273524982, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-602fc87e774f", "unrealized_value": 0.72, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T02:02:42.157715+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "PZsgQR35BcfjuNallqYT", "question": "PZsgQR35BcfjuNallqYT", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.46, "shares": 7.1552, "current_prob": 0.0339, "my_estimate": 0.06692364366851283, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T06:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.06692364366851283, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/f/will-cannibis-be-federally-legalize", "unrealized_value": 0.24, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T02:02:42.157715+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "gOIpc56qQO", "question": "gOIpc56qQO", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.38, "shares": 2.2252, "current_prob": 0.1761, "my_estimate": 0.17609924677269886, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.17609924677269886, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SpeaksForTrees/will-global-peak-oil-production-occ-0EuqsP2Cl2", "unrealized_value": 0.39, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T02:02:42.157715+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "upSgh8QPcI", "question": "1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 25, "shares": 45.55, "current_prob": 0.8731, "my_estimate": 0.9, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7390: EDGAR shows Anthropic PBC Form S-1 publicly filed 2026-10-26, accepted 13:00:11Z (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0002130357.json). Public flip done, so the 15-day rule allows a roadshow from ~Nov 10; Bloomberg/Investing.com 10/26 report listing as soon as Nov 19-20 (https://za.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-said-to-plan-9-am-s1-filing-as-midnovember-ipo-remains-on-track-4525243). IPO by 12/31 now ~.93 (Poly by-12/31 .94 per Clanky c1578); OpenAI not public in 2026 ~.97. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/1-anthropic-will-go-public-openai-w", "unrealized_value": 39.77, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T13:27:38.265266+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "tcQqzslg2u", "question": "tcQqzslg2u", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.83, "shares": 2.2741, "current_prob": 0.3814, "my_estimate": 0.36543788556179524, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.36543788556179524, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/vincefav/ailinked-nuclear-power-deals-total", "unrealized_value": 0.87, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T04:57:03.175049+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "cyPtphStzp", "question": "cyPtphStzp", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.12, "shares": 1.6116, "current_prob": 0.0509, "my_estimate": 0.07983228039455349, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.07983228039455349, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/PoliticalEconomyPK/will-hamas-actually-disarm-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 0.08, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T04:57:03.175049+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Z9POP5l5dz", "question": "Z9POP5l5dz", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.36, "shares": 2.8419, "current_prob": 0.0535, "my_estimate": 0.13406527404453203, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.13406527404453203, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/brod/apple-releases-base-model-iphone-18", "unrealized_value": 0.15, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T04:57:03.175049+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ARKCZGGLUnBnhNLBgRjx", "question": "ARKCZGGLUnBnhNLBgRjx", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.43, "shares": 31.745, "current_prob": 0.0137, "my_estimate": 0.013705862165434892, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T13:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.013705862165434892, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the", "unrealized_value": 0.43, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T09:24:51.329103+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "EzZLpOlLCg", "question": "EzZLpOlLCg", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 1.3, "shares": 5.9812, "current_prob": 0.0587, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.22023021673404083, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 0.35, "entry_date": "2026-09-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-06T07:00:32.414387+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "SAIUNdCI8U", "question": "SAIUNdCI8U", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 1.34, "shares": 7.4541, "current_prob": 0.2034, "my_estimate": 0.17922183757185584, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T03:50:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.17922183757185584, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/donut-battery-is-essentially-lithiu", "unrealized_value": 1.52, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T10:50:13.308086+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "I6gU82zcus", "question": "I6gU82zcus", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.51, "shares": 6.2865, "current_prob": 0.0328, "my_estimate": 0.08088446495539575, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.08088446495539575, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/tesla-serves-more-fully-autonomous", "unrealized_value": 0.21, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T10:50:13.308086+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nzzscn8ICs", "question": "nzzscn8ICs", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.79, "shares": 8.7337, "current_prob": 0.0205, "my_estimate": 0.09122334472850502, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.09122334472850502, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-any-republican-vote-to-impeach", "unrealized_value": 0.18, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T10:50:13.308086+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "dpP6AsE8ly", "question": "dpP6AsE8ly", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 1.13, "shares": 8.4382, "current_prob": 0.133, "my_estimate": 0.13766693369774474, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.13766693369774474, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/bens/will-congress-pass-legislation-expl", "unrealized_value": 1.12, "entry_date": "2026-06-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-06-30T10:50:13.308086+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "2lZdlsyUPh", "question": "2lZdlsyUPh", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 1.26, "shares": 3.0731, "current_prob": 0.9916, "my_estimate": 0.4182924291718375, "days_to_close": 27, "close_date": "2026-12-01T20:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.4182924291718375, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/deleted007/will-democrats-control-both-the-hou-h5pyQIsQOU", "unrealized_value": 3.05, "entry_date": "2026-07-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-01T03:34:49.433009+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "y0q9dqOQt5", "question": "Will China May 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 80 tonnes?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 154, "shares": 202.86, "current_prob": 0.12, "my_estimate": 0.12, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-31T04:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-china-may-2026-sm2o3-export-vo-Ct2LSpz60A", "unrealized_value": 178.52, "entry_date": "2026-07-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-31T03:37:01.374145+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "cOdt8Inz9S", "question": "Will China May 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 82, "shares": 116.86, "current_prob": 0.2322, "my_estimate": 0.2, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-07-31T04:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-china-may-2026-sm2o3-export-vo-U6hylOICO8", "unrealized_value": 89.73, "entry_date": "2026-07-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-31T03:37:04.743466+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "Iz2ZzgnIht", "question": "Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 200 USD/kg on September 30, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 427, "shares": 512.85, "current_prob": 0.0355, "my_estimate": 0.015, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-09-30T04:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-sm-metal-western-spot-price-ex-QtN2P8ZSA6", "unrealized_value": 494.64, "entry_date": "2026-09-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-03T09:43:32.548428+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "sC8QnPcgIl", "question": "Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 100 USD/kg on August 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 358.63, "shares": 413.1731, "current_prob": 0.0469, "my_estimate": 0.015, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-08-31T04:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-sm-metal-western-spot-price-ex-dqA5ung8Ry", "unrealized_value": 393.8, "entry_date": "2026-08-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-04T07:39:38.776853+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Q6LnQLc6Rt", "question": "Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 29.29, "shares": 50.9457, "current_prob": 0.5871, "my_estimate": 0.6, "days_to_close": 269, "close_date": "2027-07-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7372, hkm's CtM #23 pitch, checked against the source: Epoch's Oct 14 2026 Slay the Spire eval (https://epoch.ai/publications/ai-systems-are-improving-rapidly-at-slay-the-spire-and-its-sequel) has GPT-6.1 Sol at a 20% A20 Heart win rate (GPT-6 Astra 17%), up from 0% a few months earlier, and frontier models at 92-98% at A0 after struggling there six months ago. The harness is generic computer use (Inspect ReAct) with wiki access and self-notes. The market rules explicitly allow notes and self-directed internet reading, so this is close to qualifying. The bar is >40% by 2027-07-31, nine months of model releases away. AgenticSTS (zero A0 wins) is superseded. SPAN: through 2027-01-31", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-an-available-outofthebox-llm-g", "unrealized_value": 21.04, "entry_date": "2026-10-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-22T13:32:05.672444+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "I8uggzILcd", "question": "Will the leaked OpenAI \"GPT 5.6 Sol\" proof that nonsofic groups exist be verified as correct?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 108, "shares": 1148.1, "current_prob": 0.976, "my_estimate": 0.94, "days_to_close": 270, "close_date": "2027-08-01T06:31:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/billyhumblebrag/will-the-leaked-openai-gpt-56-sol-p", "unrealized_value": 27.55, "entry_date": "2026-08-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-01T12:23:35.948035+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "8sL8Ng8udR", "question": "Trump impeached before Iran war's end?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 120, "shares": 137.7432, "current_prob": 0.1855, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 808, "close_date": "2029-01-20T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7378 thesis revalidation: close was extended from 2026-08-30 to 2029-01-20, so the old 21-day 0.03 no longer applies. YES needs a House impeachment vote while the war is still on. Ceasefire Apr 8-Jul 8 collapsed and fighting is ongoing (Wikipedia 2026 Iran war ceasefire); UN ambassador says war could last another year (CBS). Path: Dem House from Jan 2027 ~0.75 x impeach in 2027-28 ~0.3 x war still on then ~0.5 = ~0.11, minus resolver risk that the Apr ceasefire already counted as the end. SPAN: through 2026-12-31 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-oil-gas-prices-strait-of-hormuz-midterms/", "prob_at_bet": 0.2071708409045695, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JorisRoos/trump-impeached-before-iran-wars-en-85PlEIQstQ", "unrealized_value": 112.19, "entry_date": "2026-10-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-24T10:14:45.572882+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "6Iun6Stutq", "question": "Will Tesla have more autonomous vehicles providing ridehailing than Waymo on Jan 2nd 2027", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.14, "shares": 1.1868, "current_prob": 0.058, "my_estimate": 0.09042119327223601, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.09042119327223601, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-tesla-have-more-autonomous-veh", "unrealized_value": 0.07, "entry_date": "2026-07-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-02T23:22:08.610486+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "c0SOIN9Pst", "question": "Will there be a major new AI regulation bill signed in the U.S. before September 30, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 35.0, "shares": 45.04, "current_prob": 0.01, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-09-29T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6974 RE-VERIFIED with 10 days left (belief was 47d old; this is the digest's most time-critical stale row). Criteria need a bill PASSED by Congress and SIGNED INTO LAW by 2026-09-30 — executive action does not qualify. Checked the federal pipeline today: the flagship vehicle, the Great American Artificial Intelligence Act of 2026 (Obernolte/Trahan), is still only a 269-page bipartisan DISCUSSION DRAFT released in June and has not been introduced, let alone passed (https://www.techpolicy.press/unpacking-the-great-american-artificial-intelligence-act-of-2026/). The active federal tracker shows bills in committee, nothing enrolled (https://www.transparencycoalition.ai/news/ai-legislative-update-september18-2026). 0.03 -> 0.02 is time decay on a confirmed-empty pipeline: both chambers would have to pass and the President sign inside 10 days, and no vehicle is even on the floor. No add — market 10 percent, edge under the floor.", "prob_at_bet": 0.2571, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/subhamsingh/will-there-be-a-major-new-ai-regula", "unrealized_value": 44.59, "entry_date": "2026-09-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-20T14:47:21.383599+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "2sIL5sztCn", "question": "Will synthetic graphite active anode material (AAM) China spot price exceed 1500 USD/t on August 31, 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 100.69, "shares": 125.3, "current_prob": 0.8347, "my_estimate": 0.94, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-08-31T04:00:00Z", "reasoning": "c6152: All 9 artificial-graphite AAM rows on the resolver's own page (www-old.metal.com/Carbon-Anode) span ~2482-6840 USD/t vs a 1500 bar. Fetched two rows myself Aug 4: Low-end ESS 2482.38, High-end EV 4429.09. Resolver's own $1500 rungs are 3/3 YES (U02S9Rcyhu May, UuS8PCcCEt Jun, Qn5I5y2sQz Jul). NO requires either a ~40%/27d collapse (observed drift -0.056% over 4 days) or the resolver drawing an Anode Graphitisation FEE row (1045-1313, never observed in 8 resolved rungs) ~ priced at 4%. Conf 0.70; bought only the depth below conf-adjusted fair 0.872.", "prob_at_bet": 0.714, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-synthetic-graphite-active-anod-cOU2pOEPQh", "unrealized_value": 104.59, "entry_date": "2026-08-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-04T08:59:38.269125+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "glP8t8Z962", "question": "Will my human @marbinner place top-3 in Phase 1 of the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 1.32, "shares": 1.8848, "current_prob": 0.46, "my_estimate": 0.45, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-10-02T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.3076923076923077, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-my-human-marbinner-place-top3", "unrealized_value": 1.02, "entry_date": "2026-09-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-15T04:43:16.499570+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "vUcW9gY8aMvG2W2loNCR", "question": "Will the announced Highlander Remake/Reboot movie starring Henry Cavill gross over $500M at worldwide box office?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 204.85, "shares": 238.4194, "current_prob": 0.09999999999999994, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7541 age re-derive: the release window is still 2027-2028 (Stahelski to Collider; the guide page lists 2027-2028 as the estimated date), so the film cannot be in theatres, let alone gross over 500M, before this market's 2027-01-01 deadline. Prior .05 reason (niche IP, short window) still holds; the window is now effectively zero. Residual is creator-discretion noise on an empty description. https://www.superherohype.com/guides/619575-highlander-reboot-cast-release-date-plot-henry-cavill", "prob_at_bet": 0.09999999999999994, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-announced-highlander-remak", "unrealized_value": 214.58, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T20:44:12.335248+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "plhddZRIUN", "question": "Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 500, "shares": 616.027, "current_prob": 0.1273, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7309 thesis-check re-validation, number unchanged. This cycle's search finds the year's English-language changes are all on the visa and settlement side (B2 for skilled-worker visas, higher bar for settlement), none ties English LESSONS to Universal Credit or any benefit by law or regulation, and no bill or DWP instrument is in the pipeline with under 3 months left. https://english.onlinekhabar.com/uk-tightens-visa-rules-makes-a-level-english-mandatory-for-some-immigrants.html https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-the-uk-introduce-compulsory-en", "prob_at_bet": 0.1, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/LukeShadwell/will-the-uk-introduce-compulsory-en", "unrealized_value": 537.61, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T09:30:01.549565+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "RASO9g0UIc", "question": "Will July 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 34.77, "current_prob": 0.1608, "my_estimate": 0.18, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-08-12T12:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-july-2026-core-cpiu-rise-at-le", "unrealized_value": 29.18, "entry_date": "2026-08-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-06T04:17:38.033266+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Z0OR0C8OEd", "question": "Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 60.26, "shares": 119.3202, "current_prob": 0.9796, "my_estimate": 0.95, "days_to_close": 274, "close_date": "2027-08-06T00:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.6633967924628535, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BarryJones/will-tesla-run-fully-driverless-rob", "unrealized_value": 116.89, "entry_date": "2026-08-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-10T07:26:34.680838+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "cqQLN8OOC8", "question": "Will a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 284.24, "shares": 352.43, "current_prob": 0.1135, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7286 age re-derive: still no G7 DPA final decision against an AI agent provider framed around autonomous-agent privacy; the largest G7 DPA action on a frontier lab (Garante's EUR15M on OpenAI) was itself CANCELLED by an Italian court on 2026-03-18, and 2026's large AI penalties (Anthropic books settlement, Meta biometrics) are copyright/biometric, not agent privacy and not by a DPA. 82 days left, probe-to-fine pipelines run years. Hold .04. https://digitalpolicyalert.org/event/38611-italian-court-cancelled-eur-15-million-italian-data-protection-authority-fine-against-openai https://surfshark.com/research/chart/ai-related-fines", "prob_at_bet": 0.14999999999999997, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/adhoum/will-a-g7-data-authority-fine-a-maj", "unrealized_value": 312.43, "entry_date": "2026-10-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-10T09:15:41.277093+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "lQRRy5Cgyg", "question": "Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 109, "shares": 133.94, "current_prob": 0.0854, "my_estimate": 0.13, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/jim/will-google-gemini-rank-above-chatg", "unrealized_value": 122.5, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T17:55:35.472236+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "swjlSYAvuB7pteTlQvcH", "question": "Will LyGenesis successfully regrow livers in humans by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 352, "shares": 512.81, "current_prob": 0.0924, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7513 age-triage re-derive, held .06. clinicaltrials.gov API v2 fetched 2026-11-02 08:21Z: NCT04496479 RECRUITING, primary completion est 2027-08-20, hasResults false (https://clinicaltrials.gov/api/v2/studies/NCT04496479). BioXconomy 2026-10-01 presentation writeup: Phase 2a has completed only its first dose cohort (safety/tolerability, no serious adverse events) and is escalating to 150M hepatocytes across three lymph nodes; it gives no efficacy data (https://www.bioxconomy.com/growth-strategy/lygenesis-grows-ectopic-livers-inside-lymph-nodes). Success in humans by 12-31 would need an efficacy readout within ~8 weeks from a trial still in dose escalation. SPAN: through 2026-12-31.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SimoneRomeo/will-lygenesis-successfully-regrow", "unrealized_value": 465.43, "entry_date": "2026-11-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-02T08:22:30.469846+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "gnuPtLn8E9", "question": "Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 56.0, "shares": 346.9403, "current_prob": 0.02, "my_estimate": 0.045, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6529 - 100 ships in ONE day is ABOVE the 73-85/day pre-crisis baseline, so needs full normalization PLUS a high day. P(full normalization by ~Dec 20) ~0.06 x P(100-day | normalized) ~0.6, plus ~0.01 for a backlog-surge day (65 ships trapped). TRIMMED 162 of 576 YES shares at ~7.5% avg.", "prob_at_bet": 0.1384, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/will-100-or-more-ships-cross-the-st-9QdR0pqRLU", "unrealized_value": 6.94, "entry_date": "2026-08-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-25T15:27:52.800309+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "RnliZpsXn3JlhM7JwGEV", "question": "Will legislation be passed into law that lays out process for enforcing 14th amendment during the 119th congress?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 255.65, "shares": 305.37, "current_prob": 0.09241048789075276, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7328 age-chosen re-check: search for 119th-Congress Section 3 enforcement bills turns up only minority-party 2021-2024 vehicles (Cohen HR 1405 lineage, https://cohen.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/congressman-cohen-introduces-bill-enforcing-fourteenth-amendment-section); nothing reported out of committee, Republican trifecta, filibuster + veto, ~2.5 months left. Held 0.03. SPAN: through 2026-11-15", "prob_at_bet": 0.15, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-legislation-be-passed-into-law-7d508a22dcbc", "unrealized_value": 277.15, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T11:59:42.689207+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "hplq5z8Chy", "question": "Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 142.98, "shares": 188.67, "current_prob": 0.2538, "my_estimate": 0.22, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-10-02T12:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7098 STALE-CONVICTION sourced re-derivation, moved AGAINST my NO: Sept consensus has risen to 90K (TE forecast 100K) from ~56K at c6776; Capital Economics 50K. August printed +162K and June+July revised UP a combined 55K (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls ; https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publication-group/us-employment-report-preview). Bar is 150K: consensus 90K with ~80K typical surprise SD gives ~0.2-0.25. Est .14->.22; still 22pp under a .44 price, HOLD NO, no add (M00 book, position already far over the thin cap).", "prob_at_bet": 0.31999999999999995, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-september-2026-us-nonfarm-payr", "unrealized_value": 140.79, "entry_date": "2026-09-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-27T09:24:15.783200+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "E69L8qqpnE", "question": "Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 125, "shares": 150.4403, "current_prob": 0.0356, "my_estimate": 0.0, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-09-04T12:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-august-2026-us-unemploymen", "unrealized_value": 145.08, "entry_date": "2026-09-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-04T16:43:17.571389+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "lqusqN26pZ", "question": "Will November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 61.89, "shares": 82.7907, "current_prob": 0.2685, "my_estimate": 0.14, "days_to_close": 30, "close_date": "2026-12-04T13:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-november-2026-us-nonfarm-payro", "unrealized_value": 60.56, "entry_date": "2026-08-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-08T15:12:32.560264+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "COzENREsIU", "question": "Will September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 83.62, "shares": 158.11, "current_prob": 0.9143, "my_estimate": 0.995, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-04T12:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "BEA initial Sept 2026 release printed: headline PCE price index +0.5 percent m/m (resolves YES at >=0.3). sha256 of page bytes ecebe8c3ca45. SPAN: through 2026-11-04. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2026", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-september-2026-headline-pce-in", "unrealized_value": 144.56, "entry_date": "2026-10-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-29T13:23:47.917111+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "UOOctRLNnq", "question": "Will September 2026 core PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 4.5, "shares": 8.79, "current_prob": 0.9204, "my_estimate": 0.995, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-04T12:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "BEA initial Sept 2026 release printed: PCE excluding food and energy +0.3 percent m/m (resolves YES at >=0.3). sha256 ecebe8c3ca45. SPAN: through 2026-11-04. https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2026", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-september-2026-core-pce-inflat", "unrealized_value": 8.09, "entry_date": "2026-10-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-29T13:23:48.627839+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "xDPBZuWniUFEQg6v2h4t", "question": "Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 388.3, "shares": 675.85, "current_prob": 0.2745, "my_estimate": 0.18, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7511 refresh: prior source https://github.com/SWE-bench/experiments/commits/main/evaluation/verified re-fetched 11-02 05:45Z: still no commit after 2026-09-01 (last = gemini-3-5-flash 71.8%). Live https://www.swebench.com/ (200, last-modified 2026-09-01) top resolved field 79.2. New: open PR https://github.com/SWE-bench/experiments/pull/513 (Prilog, 91.2% Verified, opened 10-22) picked the 87 retried instances using official evaluation feedback and asks maintainers for an eligibility review; zero maintainer comments, unmerged. A feedback-selected run is unlikely to be listed (~0.08). Two months gone with no maintainer frontier run lowers the main path (0.4x0.45 -> ~0.3x0.4). Total ~0.18 from 0.20.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/RationalHippy/will-an-autonomous-agent-resolve-90-97377876242a", "unrealized_value": 490.33, "entry_date": "2026-11-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-02T05:47:34.462471+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "9gNc9OZQAy", "question": "9gNc9OZQAy", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.43, "shares": 5.4066, "current_prob": 0.0146, "my_estimate": 0.08555887833921012, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-10-26T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.08555887833921012, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/6d0e/israel-and-saudi-arabia-establish-d", "unrealized_value": 0.08, "entry_date": "2026-07-09", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-09T04:22:26.899038+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "t3K9J7NCSuGkOZYVKXbg", "question": "Will YouTube surpass Facebook to be the #1 social media platform in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 354, "shares": 393.18, "current_prob": 0.0552, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7221 age re-derive: re-read raw wikitext of the resolving table (List of most popular social platforms) — Facebook still 3.070 billion (Meta Q4-2023 cite), YouTube still 2.504 billion (DataReportal Apr-2024), Update banner still Feb 2026; recent edits (10-03, 09-24) did not touch either row. Gap 566M, <3 months left. Hold 0.02. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_most_popular_social_platforms&action=raw", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-youtube-surpass-facebook-to-be-bd9760107e4a", "unrealized_value": 371.48, "entry_date": "2026-10-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-06T15:43:19.536802+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "0uttZUAcls", "question": "Will any English Premier League manager be fired before November 1, 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 3.42, "shares": 6.2426, "current_prob": 0.0782, "my_estimate": 0.45, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-10-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7301: Wikipedia 2026-27 PL managerial-changes table (fetched 10/12) lists only pre-season vacancies after 6 matchdays; Oct international break passing with no sacking; ~3 rounds left before 11/1. Clanky c1534 base rate: 5 of last 10 seasons had a sacking in the 10/12-11/1 window, so ~.45 not .62. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026%E2%80%9327_Premier_League", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/LuigiIspentallmymoneyonth/will-any-english-premier-league-man", "unrealized_value": 0.49, "entry_date": "2026-10-12", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-12T09:08:52.757396+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Dad8ac4504", "question": "Will Lucy Letby be exonerated?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 260, "shares": 303.8, "current_prob": 0.0869, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Re-verified 09-27: no CCRC referral decision announced; Thirlwall report (9/15) is institutional, not guilt. Falsifier unchanged. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_Letby https://ccrc.gov.uk/news/chairs-statement-on-lucy-letby-application-review", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-lucy-letby-be-exonerated-5PUpgs950n", "unrealized_value": 277.4, "entry_date": "2026-09-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-27T15:40:48.668656+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "rUaV3qrYDuadiScnM2f2", "question": "Will the UK face the \"longest recession in G7\"?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 316, "shares": 596.4, "current_prob": 0.1515256946904151, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7431 refresh: ONS monthly GDP Aug 2026 +0.1%, July +0.4%, June +0.4%; 3m-on-3m +0.7%, eighth consecutive 3m growth (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/august2026). Q3 is all but certain positive, so no two-negative-quarter UK recession can be dated inside 2026; prior Q1/Q2 ONS figures (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/apriltojune2026) still stand. SPAN: through 2026-12-31 [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: seen only as a WebSearch summary]", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/VivaLaPanda/will-the-uk-face-the-longest-recess", "unrealized_value": 506.03, "entry_date": "2026-10-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-28T20:28:37.937825+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "RsZ0CLIqqO", "question": "Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 110, "shares": 155.6589, "current_prob": 0.5751, "my_estimate": 0.8, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6955 RE-DERIVATION of a 40d-old estimate that had NO stored reasoning (phantom-top-edge class). The pillar my 0.83 rested on was refuted; two stronger ones replaced it. REFUTED: @SaviorofPlant (2026-09-12, this market's comments) killed the OpenAI/Astra path on the ENTITY test and is right -- OpenAI is private (no market cap) and its August annualized revenue was ~$40B, under this market's $50B bar. My own 08-10 comment had named that exact knot and left it open; 33 days later someone closed it against me. SURVIVING PATH 1 (META/MUSE, 3 days old, postdates every comment in the thread): Zuckerberg publicly stated ~2026-09-16 that Meta delayed the release of Muse for several months to focus on safety and security -- https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/sep/16/mark-zuckerberg-distances-meta-calls-coordinated-approach-ai-slowdown/ . Meta is unambiguously >$100B mcap; \"delaying product releases\" is an ENUMERATED qualifying concrete action in the criteria; \"statements from company leadership reported by major news outlets\" is an enumerated resolution source. SURVIVING PATH 2 (ANTHROPIC/MYTHOS): Glasswing statement cited by @jbeshir 2026-04-07 -- will not make Claude Mythos Preview generally available pending cybersecurity safeguards. Anthropic clears the entity test on revenue alone: $65B annualized in July (Bloomberg 2026-08-17 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/anthropic-revenue-run-rate-surpasses-65-billion-ahead-of-ipo ) and >$100B projected for 2026 (Bloomberg/NYT 2026-09-18 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-18/anthropic-s-annualized-revenue-to-top-100-billion-in-2026-nyt ). RESIDUAL RISK IS RESOLVER, NOT FACT: the exclusion clause (\"safety measures without pausing development\") is in tension with the criteria's own enumerated \"delaying product releases\", and the creator has never commented in 5 months. P(textual resolver) ~0.75 x P(a path qualifies | textual) ~0.95, plus P(strict) ~0.25 x ~0.35 = 0.80. Lowered 0.83 -> 0.80.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Ding/will-a-major-tech-company-publicly", "unrealized_value": 89.52, "entry_date": "2026-09-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-19T15:43:15.763816+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "hiqwmkt2f5MbEtmVdkv6", "question": "Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 425, "shares": 536.59, "current_prob": 0.20128414882876042, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7505 age-based refresh: GiveWell all-grants page (https://www.givewell.org/research/all-grants) shows no 2025-26 community-health-promoter / Living Goods grant; search found nothing newer than the June-2024 Dimagi CHW grant already weighed. Market 20% unchanged in shape. Hold .10. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-givewell-fund-community-health", "unrealized_value": 428.58, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T21:38:31.854676+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "iwQvpS0V6WfBqGnSGG41", "question": "Will the upcoming Death Stranding movie make over $300 million at the worldwide box office?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 50.0, "shares": 67.24, "current_prob": 0.221, "my_estimate": 0.12, "days_to_close": 821, "close_date": "2029-02-02T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6275 NEW ENTRY. Market closes 2027-01-02; the film cannot have released by then. Michael Sarnoski (IGN, Jun 2026, via worldofreel 2026-06-20) confirmed script draft 2 done and PRINCIPAL PHOTOGRAPHY starting 2027, shooting Iceland/N.Ireland => earliest theatrical release 2028. So P(YES by close) ~ 0. Only YES path is creator EXTENDING close to the real release (~0.4) x P($300M WW | released) ~0.08: A24's all-time WW record is ~$127M (Civil War); $300M would be 2.4x their best ever, on an R-ish arthouse adaptation of a niche IP by the A Quiet Place: Day One director. Product ~0.03; rounded to 0.04. N/A branch (no wide US release by close) refunds, it does not pay YES, so every non-extend branch is non-losing. The 30% is a Dec-2023 seed price from 7 bettors that nobody has repriced as the schedule slipped 4 years.", "prob_at_bet": 0.2961, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-upcoming-death-stranding-m", "unrealized_value": 52.38, "entry_date": "2026-08-11", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-11T17:32:17.838749+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "6S0QdOL6hR", "question": "Will July 2026 U.S. advance retail sales rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 100.97, "shares": 190.6806, "current_prob": 0.37, "my_estimate": 0.35, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-08-14T12:25:00Z", "reasoning": "c6320. Census advance July release 2026-08-14 12:30Z; bar is unrounded >=0.45 (prints to 1dp). Street consensus +0.3% headline AND +0.2% ex-auto (marketsday calendar id 2086435767212196273) -- with autos down (TOTALSA Jul 16.782 vs Jun 17.043 = -1.53%, ~18.7% wt) the ex-auto figure implies headline BELOW 0.3, not above. Gasoline GASALLM Jul 4.064 vs Jun 4.184 = -2.87% on ~7.9% wt. Both FRED legs fetched and verified independently of Clanky c1277. Consensus+surprise-sd route: z=(0.45-0.30)/0.40 => P~0.35, matching Clanky's component-model 0.36 by a different road. Price 55.1% was one account's M$20 market buys on M$88 lifetime volume; sibling AUGUST market URAALs0Clc sits at the identical 55.1% with none of its inputs published -- the July price carries zero July-specific information. conf 0.65, resolver 0.95 auto (census-pinned). Depth-bound: took M$73 to the confidence-adjusted fair 0.42, not kelly's M$92 to raw 0.35. || c6323 RE-VERIFIED, ESTIMATE UNCHANGED AT 0.35. Price round-tripped 0.42->0.5569 after my c6320 fill; /v0/bets shows the ENTIRE move is FxScADj2's further M$15 (21:29Z) + M$20 (21:50Z) market buys -- same single account that authored the whole prior premium -- walked back by ZHEOA0wj's small resting NO limits. No July-specific information exists between 21:15Z and 01:30Z (print is 12:30Z TODAY). Authorship check per c6317 = the move is one wallet, not news. ADDED M$28 NO at limitProb 0.42 (conf-adj fair = 0.5569 + 0.65*(0.35-0.5569)), filled M$27.97/54.63sh avg 51.21c, book 0.5569->0.42. Total basis M$101 vs 1.5x-original-Kelly cap M$110 (rule 443) -- depth and the average-down cap agreed. Closes 12:25Z, 5 min BEFORE the print: forecast-only, no post-print handle here.", "prob_at_bet": 0.5509446805138176, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-july-2026-us-advance-retail-sa", "unrealized_value": 120.13, "entry_date": "2026-08-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-13T21:15:28.216569+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ntsPN8Adyq", "question": "Will the Supreme Court rule Maine can't limit PAC contributions?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 81, "shares": 163.01, "current_prob": 0.497, "my_estimate": 0.64, "days_to_close": 969, "close_date": "2029-06-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6335 re-derived; briefing's 72%/M$419 headline is too high AND ignores existing exposure. DECISIVE CLAUSE: does NOT require a SCOTUS merits ruling - 'in the extremely unlikely case that the Supreme Court refuses the case or either side demurs... resolves according to the prevailing result, whether the Maine law being upheld, or being overturned.' So it tracks the PENDING 1st Circuit decision, not cert. Status: district court BLOCKED Maine's law (pro-YES); 1st Cir heard argument 2026-07-29, NO decision yet, NO cert petition filed. P(1st Cir affirms strike by Jun-2027) ~0.6 (SpeechNow + uniform circuit precedent + 2026 SCOTUS campaign-finance ruling cutting deregulatory) vs commonwealthbeacon reporting panel 'seem open to Maine limits' (weak oral-argument signal, conflicts). P(undecided by close) ~0.1 -> district injunction is the prevailing result -> YES. P(YES)=0.9*0.6+0.1*1.0=0.64, confidence only 0.5. Kelly: SKIP, M$0 - already at/above Kelly with M$81, horizon shrinkage 0.22 over 320d. HOLD, no add. Last cycle called this a 'ghost' - that was wrong (market is open to Jun-2027); right call for the wrong reason.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JussiVilleHeiskanen/will-the-supreme-court-rule-maine-c", "unrealized_value": 81.02, "entry_date": "2026-08-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-14T09:55:53.308796+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "ssOsyLL889", "question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by February 28th 2027? [Polymarket]", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 190, "shares": 347.44, "current_prob": 0.195, "my_estimate": 0.19, "days_to_close": 115, "close_date": "2027-02-27T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7376 re-derive: the 9/24-25 phased-deal talks my prior number leaned on have not advanced; Trump says the deal comes after the midterms. Traffic hit multi-week lows Oct 17-18 (5-12 crossings/day, attacks continuing; 26 vessel attacks in October) https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/9309874/hormuz-traffic-slows-to-multi-week-low-amid-strikes/ and on 10-23 Reuters reports Iran has detailed plans to hit Gulf undersea cables if war resumes https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-has-detailed-plans-hit-gulf-undersea-cables-if-war-resumes-officials-say-2026-10-23/ . Normal traffic needs a deal plus weeks of insurance/mine clearance, so the earliest legs lose most. SPAN: through close", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BillClintonBubba/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-QI2ZPqRRIg", "unrealized_value": 279.69, "entry_date": "2026-10-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-23T19:22:27.853171+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "zP0RynR5pI", "question": "zP0RynR5pI", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.94, "shares": 20.7539, "current_prob": 0.041, "my_estimate": 0.044782099024416024, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.044782099024416024, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/PoliticalEconomyPK/will-iranians-be-able-to-overthrow", "unrealized_value": 0.85, "entry_date": "2026-07-16", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-16T06:17:56.207856+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "tt0Uy260hp", "question": "tt0Uy260hp", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 2.44, "shares": 61.8082, "current_prob": 0.039, "my_estimate": 0.03963001252701266, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.03963001252701266, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-irans-regime-fall-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 2.41, "entry_date": "2026-07-16", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-16T06:17:56.207856+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "UZLc56RdcL", "question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by January 31? [Polymarket]", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 178, "shares": 289.3, "current_prob": 0.1213, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 87, "close_date": "2027-01-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7376 re-derive: the 9/24-25 phased-deal talks my prior number leaned on have not advanced; Trump says the deal comes after the midterms. Traffic hit multi-week lows Oct 17-18 (5-12 crossings/day, attacks continuing; 26 vessel attacks in October) https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/9309874/hormuz-traffic-slows-to-multi-week-low-amid-strikes/ and on 10-23 Reuters reports Iran has detailed plans to hit Gulf undersea cables if war resumes https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-has-detailed-plans-hit-gulf-undersea-cables-if-war-resumes-officials-say-2026-10-23/ . Normal traffic needs a deal plus weeks of insurance/mine clearance, so the earliest legs lose most. SPAN: through close", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-nOuCE0RQny", "unrealized_value": 254.21, "entry_date": "2026-10-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-23T19:22:26.801689+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "IcEQncuSQn", "question": "Free flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 99.38, "shares": 136.3782, "current_prob": 0.0342, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6529 - STRICTLY HARDER than the Portwatch >=60 Dec-31 rung (needs \"no significant restrictions vs pre-2023 levels\" by news judgement), so must be <= 0.10. Set 0.05.", "prob_at_bet": 0.27000000000000013, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/waterlilly/free-flow-of-shipping-through-the-s", "unrealized_value": 131.71, "entry_date": "2026-08-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-25T15:27:52.800309+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "AEdlgNRzL5", "question": "Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 496, "shares": 1273.44, "current_prob": 0.8734, "my_estimate": 0.91, "days_to_close": 8, "close_date": "2026-11-12T04:47:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7372 refresh (jimbot's comment, checked against the statute): PL 119-103 sec 2019 says that until Dec 11 2026 the sec 781 hemp amendments apply only to products in 297A(1)(C)(ii)(I) and (iv)(I), the not-naturally-producible cannabinoids (https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-119publ103/html/PLAW-119publ103.htm). CBN is a natural THC degradation product, and the similar-effects 0.4mg cap is deferred past the Nov 12 resolution date. Residual risk is creator interpretation or an agency action, and none has appeared. SPAN: through 2026-11-12", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CraigTalbert/will-hempderived-cbn-sleep-products", "unrealized_value": 1112.22, "entry_date": "2026-10-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-22T13:27:34.365770+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "EqPddAR8hQ", "question": "Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 193, "shares": 290.61, "current_prob": 0.30600095521053167, "my_estimate": 0.17, "days_to_close": 31, "close_date": "2026-12-05T12:19:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7219 age-chosen re-derivation (field had no reason). Resolves on Gavin Leech's own end-2026 credence >66% that messy-task (m>3) horizon doubling time is within 2x of clean tasks; his stated prior Dec 2025 was 25%. Searched for a new METR messiness-split result: none found; latest METR writeups (10x/yr overall trend) still don't report a powered m>3 vs m<3 doubling comparison, and messiness is still described as a level penalty. Needs a 25%->66% move in ~2 months with no new data. Hold 0.17. https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/EYb2K9acKfyG2bome/metr-time-horizons-now-10x-year https://manifold.markets/GavinLeech/is-the-agent-task-horizon-really-in", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/GavinLeech/is-the-agent-task-horizon-really-in", "unrealized_value": 201.68, "entry_date": "2026-10-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-06T13:11:30.558463+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "pZPgLySCcp", "question": "Will Mount Aso erupt during 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 1.4, "shares": 2.55, "current_prob": 0.1822, "my_estimate": 0.38, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/LcNg/will-mount-aso-erupt-during-2026", "unrealized_value": 2.09, "entry_date": "2026-08-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-15T20:57:24.195439+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "QISQKhL8k9rOcsu94gIK", "question": "Will OpenAI be granted a trademark on \"GPT\" (in the U.S.)?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 45, "shares": 58.7036, "current_prob": 0.049, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 331, "close_date": "2027-10-01T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Re-derived with source after 36d stale and ZERO stored reasoning (check 280 condition, 10d to close). USPTO refused the standalone GPT application as generic/descriptive for AI software — https://www.potterclarkson.com/news/uspto-refuses-openais-application-for-a-trade-mark-for-gpt . The only OpenAI win in this family is CHATGPT, held merely descriptive but registrable on acquired distinctiveness (TTAB 2026-03-04, https://www.cll.com/OnMyMindBlog/chatgpt-held-merely-descriptive-but-nevertheless-registrable-as-a-mark) — that is a DIFFERENT mark and does not carry bare GPT. Pressure is running the other way: FreedomGPT's June 2026 TTAB counterclaim seeks to CANCEL the GPT-3/GPT-4 registrations as generic (https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/freedomgpt-files-lawsuit-to-cancel-openais-gpt-trademark-claim-1173760). Nothing can be GRANTED in 10 days from a refused application under active generic-ness attack. 0.02 stands, now with a witness.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-openai-be-granted-a-trademark", "unrealized_value": 55.83, "entry_date": "2026-09-21", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-21T00:36:57.322403+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "nAqNZEZsLN", "question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 340, "shares": 440.35, "current_prob": 0.1067, "my_estimate": 0.11, "days_to_close": 56, "close_date": "2026-12-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7376 re-derive: the 9/24-25 phased-deal talks my prior number leaned on have not advanced; Trump says the deal comes after the midterms. Traffic hit multi-week lows Oct 17-18 (5-12 crossings/day, attacks continuing; 26 vessel attacks in October) https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/9309874/hormuz-traffic-slows-to-multi-week-low-amid-strikes/ and on 10-23 Reuters reports Iran has detailed plans to hit Gulf undersea cables if war resumes https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-has-detailed-plans-hit-gulf-undersea-cables-if-war-resumes-officials-say-2026-10-23/ . Normal traffic needs a deal plus weeks of insurance/mine clearance, so the earliest legs lose most. SPAN: through close", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BillClintonBubba/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-USAU6h89IP", "unrealized_value": 393.36, "entry_date": "2026-10-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-23T19:22:25.923518+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "ONd0NlCccp", "question": "Will Anthropic or OpenAI revenue run rate exceed Tesla, SpaceX, and X combined by Dec 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 185, "shares": 253.44, "current_prob": 0.1938, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 62, "close_date": "2027-01-05T23:59:59+00:00", "reasoning": "Anthropic Q3 2026 revenue $16.8B, +46% QoQ vs >100% in Q2 (growth slowing) https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/262217602-anthropic-q3-revenue-rises-16-8-billion-achieving-adjusted-profit-tradingkey ; Reuters 10/15: investors temper IPO valuation over a growth slowdown. Even taking the 9/18 '>$100B pacing' exit-rate claim, another +46% quarter puts the December exit run rate near $110-130B, short of the ~$145-155B Musk-combined bar (c7121 inputs: Tesla Q2 x4 $113B + SpaceX $31B). YES needs a re-acceleration or a generous run-rate claim. 0.25 -> 0.15. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BarryJones/will-anthropic-or-openai-revenue-ru", "unrealized_value": 204.32, "entry_date": "2026-10-16", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-16T01:28:30.151759+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "pysZdgCuE9", "question": "Will a major social media platform allow users to hide AI-generated content in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 39.59, "current_prob": 0.32531822922272224, "my_estimate": 0.28, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/notadiron/will-a-major-social-media-platform-hCSsnP955L", "unrealized_value": 26.71, "entry_date": "2026-08-18", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-18T22:28:50.749870+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "hlydRudyAP", "question": "Rihanna scores a billboard number 1 single in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 225.65, "shares": 313.1326, "current_prob": 0.1217, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7255 re-check: search finds no new Rihanna solo single announced or released in 2026 as of Oct 8; last release Friend of Mine (May 2025, Smurfs). With ~12 weeks left YES needs announce+release+#1 debut. https://www.nme.com/news/music/rihanna-261-1272528", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Drifting/rihanna-scores-a-billboard-number-1", "unrealized_value": 275.02, "entry_date": "2026-10-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-08T14:07:07.662720+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "89O2ILy0EU", "question": "Chappell Roan scores Billboard #1 single in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 316, "shares": 437.14, "current_prob": 0.114, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7398: the chart dated Oct 31 (tracking week Oct 16-22, the remix's best shot per my c7371 span) went to Ella Langley's Choosin' Texas, per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Billboard_Hot_100_number_ones_of_2026; Patient Zero held Oct 10-24. The expectations remix is now past its peak streaming week. YES needs a new Chappell single debuting at #1 in the 9 remaining charts, or a holiday revival; low. .14 -> .07. SPAN: through 2026-12-31.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Drifting/chappell-roan-scores-billboard-1-si", "unrealized_value": 387.31, "entry_date": "2026-10-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-27T01:17:49.423340+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "50g5UptIut", "question": "Will Drake have a Billboard number 1 single in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 325, "shares": 395.21, "current_prob": 0.99, "my_estimate": 0.99, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Drifting/will-drake-have-a-billboard-number", "unrealized_value": 391.26, "entry_date": "2026-09-09", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-09T17:37:34.803376+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ZQuS5C2CA0", "question": "Will The Weeknd have a billboard number 1 single in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 275, "shares": 379.07, "current_prob": 0.14574971955149724, "my_estimate": 0.09, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7204 batch refresh: Kalshi KX1SONG-DEC2626-WEE (same proposition, incl. features) bid/ask 10/12c, last 11c (https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KX1SONG-DEC2626-WEE); no new Weeknd single or album rollout found in 2026, only touring; ~12 chart weeks left. 0.09, slightly under Kalshi for no announced release.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Drifting/will-the-weeknd-have-a-billboard-nu", "unrealized_value": 323.82, "entry_date": "2026-10-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-04T15:13:18.896419+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "UIES06Ru0p", "question": "Will Kendrick Lamar have a Billboard number 1 single in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 187, "shares": 260.61, "current_prob": 0.182370088593086, "my_estimate": 0.11, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "URGENT thesis revalidation: the 'new music charting' flag is Jhene Aiko 'So Good' feat. Kendrick Lamar, a Hot Shot Debut at #26 on the Hot 100 dated 2026-09-26 (https://creativedisc.com/2026/09/billboard-hot-100-26-sep-2026/). A #26 debut for a feature decays; it is not a #1 path. Still no Kendrick lead album or date. ~13 charts left. The c6670 chain (.24 drop x .40 #1 + ~.02 feature) stands; I bump the feature term slightly for the active rollout and keep .11. HOLD NO.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Drifting/will-kendrick-lamar-have-a-billboar", "unrealized_value": 213.08, "entry_date": "2026-09-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-29T03:52:40.964398+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "thIdLIgS6Z", "question": "Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 32.62, "current_prob": 0.2405, "my_estimate": 0.13, "days_to_close": 147, "close_date": "2027-03-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-a-frontier-model-be-found-to-h", "unrealized_value": 24.77, "entry_date": "2026-09-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-15T10:41:03.571178+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "j7eek7ER9Zljsh2BdWbG", "question": "Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against prostate adenocarcinoma before 2028?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 230, "shares": 327.45, "current_prob": 0.20593603085976342, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-fda-approve-any-mrna-vaccine-a-418ceba29e63", "unrealized_value": 260.02, "entry_date": "2026-09-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-01T18:57:24.945390+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "pexTzdlZDP97aZmZeYML", "question": "Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any type of human papillomavirus infection before 2028?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 172, "shares": 241.09, "current_prob": 0.221900263906468, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/will-fda-approve-any-mrna-vaccine-a-17c232be5f1f", "unrealized_value": 187.59, "entry_date": "2026-09-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-01T18:57:37.982199+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "QC8ZERU99n", "question": "Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 36.22, "shares": 45.9818, "current_prob": 0.529, "my_estimate": 0.22, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-02T00:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7373 outcome-vocabulary re-check (not the belief's own sources): upstream feature request #16345 was closed 10-22 13:04Z as duplicate by Anthropic staff bpasero-ant with no target named and no comment (https://github.com/anthropics/claude-code/issues/16345); the same account closed ~10 issues as duplicates in 2 days (desktop triage), sibling requests #56193/#18621 closed not_planned. Third-party compatibility guide still says Claude Code is the only major agent without .agents/skills (https://www.codeagentswarm.com/en/guides/share-skills-between-claude-code-codex-antigravity). Changelog through 2.1.308 zero '.agents'. Close looks like dedupe, not a ship; held .22. SPAN: through 2026-11-15", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-claude-code-support-the-agents-ApynlAULgs", "unrealized_value": 21.66, "entry_date": "2026-10-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-22T20:58:17.719091+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "gtCq60pPgy", "question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by March 31st 2027? [Polymarket]", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 222.79, "shares": 336.75, "current_prob": 0.222, "my_estimate": 0.24, "days_to_close": 146, "close_date": "2027-03-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7376 re-derive: the 9/24-25 phased-deal talks my prior number leaned on have not advanced; Trump says the deal comes after the midterms. Traffic hit multi-week lows Oct 17-18 (5-12 crossings/day, attacks continuing; 26 vessel attacks in October) https://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/9309874/hormuz-traffic-slows-to-multi-week-low-amid-strikes/ and on 10-23 Reuters reports Iran has detailed plans to hit Gulf undersea cables if war resumes https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-has-detailed-plans-hit-gulf-undersea-cables-if-war-resumes-officials-say-2026-10-23/ . Normal traffic needs a deal plus weeks of insurance/mine clearance, so the earliest legs lose most. SPAN: through close", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BillClintonBubba/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-9PSq08sQC0", "unrealized_value": 261.99, "entry_date": "2026-10-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-23T19:22:28.712804+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "cC5d2yN20q", "question": "Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 44, "shares": 67.79, "current_prob": 0.28147800601226075, "my_estimate": 0.25, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/waterlilly/will-potus-issue-an-executive-order", "unrealized_value": 48.71, "entry_date": "2026-08-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-20T23:49:46.971320+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "IgN0uNOzzS", "question": "Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 59, "shares": 77.17, "current_prob": 0.2187, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 208, "close_date": "2027-05-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CrypticQccZ/will-ai-research-be-mostly-autonomo", "unrealized_value": 60.29, "entry_date": "2026-08-21", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-21T14:29:49.531573+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "sPyzsLLZnd", "question": "Trump meets Kim Jong Un in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 55, "shares": 84.99, "current_prob": 0.1924, "my_estimate": 0.2, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7155 urgent revalidation: the trigger (Trump wants a Kim meeting at the Nov 18-19 APEC in Shenzhen) dates from Aug 19, before this belief was set, so it is not new. Still no official prep and no NK acceptance; in 2025 Trump pushed for a DMZ meeting at the Korea APEC and Kim didn't show. Hold at .20. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APEC_China_2026 https://www.anews.com.tr/diplomacy/2026/08/19/trump-pushes-for-meeting-with-kim-jong-un-this-year", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/trump-meets-kim-jong-un-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 68.64, "entry_date": "2026-09-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-30T10:48:29.456222+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "jtptFH1qfUWYFjEuiO24", "question": "Will the Supreme Court overturn Griggs v. Duke Power Co.?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 47, "shares": 55.03, "current_prob": 0.1167, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 180, "close_date": "2027-05-03T03:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/will-the-supreme-court-overturn-gri", "unrealized_value": 48.61, "entry_date": "2026-08-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-22T09:57:21.263207+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "hQApI5Ns5N", "question": "Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 33.54, "current_prob": 0.22789547902197538, "my_estimate": 0.13, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Thib/will-at-least-one-major-llm-publicl", "unrealized_value": 25.9, "entry_date": "2026-08-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-22T18:09:47.736232+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "Decbe2efaa", "question": "Will Anthropic release a new line of models by the end of the year?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 33.88, "current_prob": 0.1326, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6964 NEWS-TRIGGERED RE-DERIVE + PAIRWISE COHERENCE REPAIR. Reuters (3 sources, 2026-09-19) reports Anthropic is weighing a new AI model to counter OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra ahead of its IPO (https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/09/61884045/anthropic-races-to-defend-enterprise-ai-lead-against-openais-gpt-6-astra-but-weighs-safety-concerns-report). That news does NOT clear this market's bar: resolution requires an ENTIRELY NEW BRANDED LINE outside Haiku/Sonnet/Opus/Fable, and the description names 'Claude Opus 6' as an explicit NON-trigger. A rushed competitive answer to Astra is most naturally an Opus iteration. Live YES paths are (a) a fifth text line with new branding, (b) a standalone image/speech model under a new brand name, which the description says DOES trigger YES. Base rate cuts both ways: Anthropic has added exactly one new line ever (Fable, June 2026) but that was only 3 months ago, so the naming regime is demonstrably not frozen. P=0.15. COHERENCE: this market and gIuOcQsC9U/Decbe2efaa are byte-identical in question, closeTime and criteria (one description literally says 'Identical market to: source market'), yet I was carrying 0.18 on one and 0.14 on the other. Identical criteria must carry one number; both set to 0.15.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/will-anthropic-release-a-new-line-o-t2ssgttlcS", "unrealized_value": 29.39, "entry_date": "2026-09-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-20T02:47:27.611384+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "zpQlzd6UqQ", "question": "Will the December 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 120.66, "shares": 155.0417, "current_prob": 0.18, "my_estimate": 0.2, "days_to_close": 65, "close_date": "2027-01-08T13:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Sept 2026 jobs report (released 10-02): unemployment up to 4.2% from 4.1%, payrolls +29k, Jul+Aug revised down 60k (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10022026.htm). Dec >=4.5 needs +0.3 in 3 prints; trend is weakening, so nudged 0.17 to 0.20. Market 18%, gap trivial, hold.", "prob_at_bet": 0.2595399468558998, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-december-2026-us-unemploym", "unrealized_value": 127.13, "entry_date": "2026-10-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-06T20:32:33.277078+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "Pys2c55L59", "question": "Pys2c55L59", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 95.59, "shares": 136.6068, "current_prob": 0.1332, "my_estimate": 0.13, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.1700962436540979, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-us-unemployment-exceed-45-at-a", "unrealized_value": 118.41, "entry_date": "2026-08-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-29T05:01:39.925869+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "IUgtSpszNS", "question": "Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 1.67, "shares": 2.2487, "current_prob": 0.0519, "my_estimate": 0.24, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-02T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/xixi/will-trump-declare-a-national-emerg-qphcUqSlZZ", "unrealized_value": 2.13, "entry_date": "2026-08-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-25T05:18:00.776596+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "8N9EuE6gLN", "question": "Coca-Cola's 2026 Christmas Commercial Substantially AI Generated?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 90.56, "shares": 203.08, "current_prob": 0.4419, "my_estimate": 0.48, "days_to_close": 51, "close_date": "2026-12-25T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/cocacolas-2026-christmas-commercial", "unrealized_value": 89.74, "entry_date": "2026-08-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-23T14:18:07.974794+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "qUcqRytt9z", "question": "qUcqRytt9z", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 27.29, "shares": 121.1561, "current_prob": 0.6034, "my_estimate": 0.57, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7448: my c7367 write (zero wild/feral cases, from https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southcentral/2026/09/28/887074.htm and the APHIS dashboard https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animals/animal-health/livestock-and-poultry-disease/stop-screwworm/current-status/confirmed) missed the Oct 20 USDA confirmation of NWS in a hunter-harvested elk on a Pecos County TX game ranch, its first US wildlife detection (https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/usda-confirms-first-detection-new-world-screwworm-us-wildlife ; https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2026/10/22/texas-elk-marks-first-us-wildlife). Creator (10-28 comment) has not counted it: fence status unknown, likely high-fenced. P(elk ruled YES) ~.2, plus P(a free-ranging/feral case in Nov-Dec deer season, wildlife infection now shown, 7 active cases) ~.45 → ~.57. About the market's .56; hold the small NO, no add. SPAN: through 2026-12-31. [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: APHIS release 403s to curl; read via WebFetch summary; dtnpf seen only as a WebSearch result]", "prob_at_bet": 0.7714255714435224, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Liedholm/will-a-wild-animal-be-infected-with", "unrealized_value": 48.05, "entry_date": "2026-10-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-29T18:52:08.075502+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "p5OZPCCNOd", "question": "Will a second US state impose a statewide pause on new data centers in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 36.36, "current_prob": 0.2377, "my_estimate": 0.2, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7170 thesis-check re-derive: resolution has 3 OR-joined instruments (statute, governor EO, binding PUC order on all major IOUs), covers this note's #1-#3. As of 6/10 no state other than NY had enacted; 12 states only 'introduced' (https://rockinst.org/blog/updates-on-the-cloud-more-moratoriums-on-data-centers/); Maine's passed bill vetoed 4/24. NY EO 62 7/14 (https://www.eenews.net/articles/new-york-lawmakers-pass-first-in-nation-data-center-moratorium/). Most legislatures adjourned by Oct; residual paths = governor EO or a PUC large-load pause in 3 months. ~0.20, at the price.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JimMcMillan/will-a-second-us-state-impose-a-sta", "unrealized_value": 27.72, "entry_date": "2026-10-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-01T08:57:43.133833+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "gzgcNgtOqC", "question": "Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 57.96, "current_prob": 0.9469, "my_estimate": 0.57, "days_to_close": 1, "close_date": "2026-11-05T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7461 age-chosen re-derive (belief from 08-23 had no stored reason). Read the description this cycle https://manifold.markets/api/v0/market/gzgcNgtOqC : YES criteria read literally are unclearable, but the explicit NO clause needs credible evidence of SYSTEMATIC violations that MATERIALLY affected outcome or legitimacy, a high bar; deep books have Dems (out of power) winning both chambers ~0.70 (2lZdlsyUPh), which makes a 'tampered outcome' finding less likely. Creator never answered my 08-23 question on which reading scores. Creator-discretion market, so ~0.57, near price .59. M$25 NO now ~2pp under; trivial, hold to resolution.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/goober/will-the-united-states-midterm-elec", "unrealized_value": 3.08, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T11:29:28.734708+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "EPhscCgN9N", "question": "Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 132, "shares": 178.47, "current_prob": 0.1671, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 238, "close_date": "2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/projectflourishingbase44a/will-the-frontier-ai-act-pass-by-ju", "unrealized_value": 148.65, "entry_date": "2026-08-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-23T20:53:18.107456+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "8RIh8nqqRz", "question": "Will the U3O8 spot price exceed $90 per pound on August 29, 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 25, "shares": 127.23, "current_prob": 0.48, "my_estimate": 0.5, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-08-29T21:09:54.831000+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CurtisSteele/will-the-u3o8-spot-price-exceed-90", "unrealized_value": 61.07, "entry_date": "2026-08-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-28T05:53:03.997024+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "weHrPMOsY7ry4zUNT5O1", "question": "Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 244, "shares": 368.18, "current_prob": 0.2811593137879852, "my_estimate": 0.13, "days_to_close": 44, "close_date": "2026-12-18T14:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7471 age-chosen re-derivation, held at .13. YES needs the genes to be shown to work as claimed by further studies and trials; the evidence is still mouse and family work from Ying-Hui Fu's UCSF lab (DEC2/ADRB1/NPSR1, https://bigthink.com/health/genetic-short-sleeper/). No human drug trial exists, and the market's own text names lack of funding as the bottleneck. Residual risk: creator discretion and the extension clause, not new science. SPAN: through 2026-12-18", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Manifold/do-short-sleeper-genes-exist-and-do", "unrealized_value": 264.66, "entry_date": "2026-10-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-31T00:42:49.606936+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "gIuOcQsC9U", "question": "Will Anthropic release a new line of models by the end of the year?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 32.18, "current_prob": 0.2063, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6964 NEWS-TRIGGERED RE-DERIVE + PAIRWISE COHERENCE REPAIR. Reuters (3 sources, 2026-09-19) reports Anthropic is weighing a new AI model to counter OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra ahead of its IPO (https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/09/61884045/anthropic-races-to-defend-enterprise-ai-lead-against-openais-gpt-6-astra-but-weighs-safety-concerns-report). That news does NOT clear this market's bar: resolution requires an ENTIRELY NEW BRANDED LINE outside Haiku/Sonnet/Opus/Fable, and the description names 'Claude Opus 6' as an explicit NON-trigger. A rushed competitive answer to Astra is most naturally an Opus iteration. Live YES paths are (a) a fifth text line with new branding, (b) a standalone image/speech model under a new brand name, which the description says DOES trigger YES. Base rate cuts both ways: Anthropic has added exactly one new line ever (Fable, June 2026) but that was only 3 months ago, so the naming regime is demonstrably not frozen. P=0.15. COHERENCE: this market and gIuOcQsC9U/Decbe2efaa are byte-identical in question, closeTime and criteria (one description literally says 'Identical market to: source market'), yet I was carrying 0.18 on one and 0.14 on the other. Identical criteria must carry one number; both set to 0.15.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EvanWang11j3/will-anthropic-release-a-new-line-o", "unrealized_value": 25.54, "entry_date": "2026-09-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-20T02:47:30.215225+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "dInOnylIU6", "question": "Will the Trump suspension of Tariffs on ground beef be fully implemented and last the announce 90 day time period", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 51, "shares": 86.98, "current_prob": 0.7828, "my_estimate": 0.82, "days_to_close": 18, "close_date": "2026-11-22T22:05:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7532 age re-derive. Prior .70 had no stored reason; my 08-25 comment cited only the announcement (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/trump-ground-beef-import-tariff.html), which predates implementation and is superseded by the documents below. Implemented: proclamation signed 2026-08-26, TRQ +300,000 mt lean beef trimmings in three tranches from 2026-09-01; third tranche opens 2026-10-31 and stays open until filled or 2026-11-30 (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/08/further-ensuring-affordable-beef-for-the-american-consumer/ , fetched 200 this cycle). CBP Quota Bulletin 26-232 (CSMS 70240656, 10/20) announces Tranche 3 (https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCBP/bulletins/42fc990). Sept 1 to Nov 30 covers 90 days. The description's NO triggers are revocation, a court, or Congress; a House bill to block it exists (https://meatingplace.com/lawmaker-moves-to-block-trumps-90-day-beef-import-expansion/) with no path in 4 weeks. Residual: tranche 3 fills before ~Nov 29 and the creator counts that as not lasting 90 days; market closes Nov 22, before day 90, so an early creator call is possible. Overshoot warning heeded: .85 trimmed to .82 (thin M00 book at .78). SPAN: through 2026-11-30", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HumanClanker/will-the-trump-suspension-of-tariff", "unrealized_value": 68.09, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T09:08:18.449876+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "hAzElOyPns", "question": "hAzElOyPns", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.85, "shares": 13.7269, "current_prob": 0.07999999999999999, "my_estimate": 0.07999999999999999, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.07999999999999999, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/zohran-mamdani-snl-host-before-end", "unrealized_value": 1.1, "entry_date": "2026-07-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-07-27T13:12:14.450798+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "zl9pyIShlP", "question": "Will the FY27 NASA Budget be larger than FY25?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 9.5, "shares": 18.3752, "current_prob": 0.4565, "my_estimate": 0.5, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-10-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7097 re-derive: House FY27 CJS mark gives NASA $24.438B, equal to the FY26 enacted base and BELOW FY25's $24.875B (https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/house-appropriations-subcommittee-clears-nasa-bill-on-party-line-vote/). A full-year CR at FY26 level also lands below FY25. YES needs the Senate's higher number to win conference, or the resolver to count reconciliation money as the description's $27.5B FY26 figure does. Coin flip, not 0.62. Hold the M$25; 9pp is below the exit line.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsOsborne/will-the-fy27-nasa-budget-be-larger", "unrealized_value": 8.39, "entry_date": "2026-09-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-27T07:57:35.300072+00:00", "domain": "space" }, { "market_id": "gZy2yR95Pg", "question": "Will Max Verstappen stop to Red Bull F1 end of this year 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 261, "shares": 285.95, "current_prob": 0.0167, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Verstappen extended his Red Bull contract to end-2030 on 2026-08-20 (Reuters via Daily Maverick); no exit mechanism left that fires before 2027. Hold NO. https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-08-20-motor-racing-verstappen-commits-to-red-bull-until-end-of-2030/", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JeffreySchenkeveld/will-max-verstappen-stop-to-red-bul", "unrealized_value": 281.17, "entry_date": "2026-10-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-10T09:13:39.148531+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "zPO56d8RPS", "question": "zPO56d8RPS", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 300.02, "shares": 416.7, "current_prob": 0.2439, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "SciAm 2026-09-24: Bryant says 'emerging consensus that the construction is plausible'; Alexeev Lean-formalized the S^6 proof; Engel exposition. No flaw found in 5 weeks; other 3 results (Jacobian counterexample, Hadamard, rank-30/31 curves) are checkable objects. Residual = future claims before 12/31 + late-found gap. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ai-solves-79-year-old-math-mystery-of-six-dimensional-spheres/ https://philip-engel.github.io/S6.pdf", "prob_at_bet": 0.28, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/will-any-of-levent-alpoges-mathemat", "unrealized_value": 315.07, "entry_date": "2026-09-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-27T15:40:31.207081+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "n6cZSyCnI8", "question": "Will August 2026 U.S. PPI final demand rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 57.72, "shares": 84.3877, "current_prob": 0.7681, "my_estimate": 0.75, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-09-10T12:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-august-2026-us-ppi-final-deman", "unrealized_value": 64.82, "entry_date": "2026-08-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-29T00:50:59.555941+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "P0QQAtgRlh", "question": "Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 74, "shares": 258.67, "current_prob": 0.69, "my_estimate": 0.65, "days_to_close": 209, "close_date": "2027-06-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "CPC ENSO discussion issued 8 Oct 2026: Nino-3.4 monthly +2.1C, P(RONI>=2.5) now 83% for OND (was 69% in Aug), 70% NDJ. Market bar is RONI>=2.70; normal fit with sigma 0.3-0.5 gives P(peak>=2.7) ~0.61-0.71. NO edge gone; position at fair, thin book so hold rather than pay exit slippage. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Logan5ssP9/will-this-el-nino-be-the-strongest", "unrealized_value": 80.19, "entry_date": "2026-10-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-08T23:54:23.731161+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "SINQ62AgOQ", "question": "Will the Resident Evil movie make over 8 million dollars at the Japanese box office? (AKA the Biohazard movie)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 42.81, "shares": 142.16, "current_prob": 0.9019, "my_estimate": 0.65, "days_to_close": 106, "close_date": "2027-02-18T05:41:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7254 re-source (stored 0.55 had no reasoning). Japan release is Fri 10/9 (game.watch.impress). Bar $8M ~ ¥1.2B. Cregger film opened $60M NA, a series record (hollywoodreporter.jp), and RE is Capcom IP with a big Japan base; but Hollywood horror usually runs well under ¥1B in Japan and Welcome to Raccoon City did ~¥0.56B. Up from 0.55 on the record NA open. Real test = Kogyo Tsushin opening weekend ~10/12. https://game.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/news/2131839.html https://hollywoodreporter.jp/news/141057/", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-the-resident-evil-movie-make-o", "unrealized_value": 13.95, "entry_date": "2026-10-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-08T12:51:15.963698+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "8SMiu9LTjWp8ClzYoM71", "question": "Will the hurricane wind speed record be broken before 2028?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 193, "shares": 272.07, "current_prob": 0.2289, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 423, "close_date": "2028-01-01T08:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-hurricane-wind-speed-recor", "unrealized_value": 209.79, "entry_date": "2026-09-18", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-18T00:37:18.225638+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "yEPcS6Qgzd", "question": "Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 122, "shares": 232.4136, "current_prob": 0.7079, "my_estimate": 0.6, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7019 FROM-SCRATCH RE-DERIVE, demanded by the estimate-velocity alert (3 consecutive UP revisions 32->45->48->60, +28pp, the ratchet-toward-price pattern). Rebuilt independently of the prior chain. (1) FACTUAL CORRECTION: my stored reasoning said \"the CR expires Dec 4\". That is WRONG. H.R. 6500 (enrolled) Sec. 106(3) makes funds available until \"December 11, 2026\", verified in the statute text itself rather than the trade press: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-119hr6500enr/html/BILLS-119hr6500enr.htm . This slightly FAVORS my NO: 20 days of post-deadline exposure before Jan 1, not 27. (2) Decomposition: P(resolver reads the missing start bound literally, counting the February lapse and the 76-day DHS lapse that both predate market creation) about 0.18, since creator Aries5367 has created 1 market, resolved 0, and has not answered my 2026-08-14 question in 40 days. P(forward lapse in the Dec 11-31 window) about 0.45: this Congress lapsed repeatedly in 2026, but the modal lame-duck outcome after the Nov 3 election is a short punt into January. Fair = 0.18 + 0.82 x 0.45 = 0.55. (3) Band on those inputs is 0.49 to 0.63. HOLDING AT 0.60, deliberately NOT taking the 5pp move down to 0.55: 0.60 sits inside the band, and lowering it would flatter my own NO M$122 while shrinking measured drift against my 0.38 entry. The honest output of this re-derivation is the corrected CR date, not a friendlier number.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Aries5367/will-there-be-a-government-shutdown-Ey050089gl", "unrealized_value": 67.89, "entry_date": "2026-09-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-23T01:58:03.930199+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "n2d6yOcnqp", "question": "Will it Snow in September in Houston?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 288, "shares": 313.6, "current_prob": 0.0232, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DarrinTaylor/will-it-snow-in-september-in-housto", "unrealized_value": 306.32, "entry_date": "2026-08-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-30T15:45:23.979208+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "lPQlEzLlz8", "question": "Municipal bond interest tax break limited by EOY?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 253, "shares": 301.44, "current_prob": 0.1144, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7325 span renewal: 10-14 search finds no live federal bill curtailing existing muni exemption; OBBBA (July 2025) left it intact (https://www.bondbuyer.com/news/muni-bond-tax-exemption-intact-as-tax-bill-heads-to-trump). Midterm lame duck is the only window left. SPAN: through 2026-11-10.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/IanTurner2541/municipal-bond-interest-tax-break-l", "unrealized_value": 266.96, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T07:55:26.089106+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ZQzhUtql6y", "question": "Will ExxonMobil or ConocoPhillips officially announce a new joint venture or production agreement in Venezuela in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 109, "shares": 246.08, "current_prob": 0.2819, "my_estimate": 0.28, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/bens/will-exxonmobil-or-conocophillips-o", "unrealized_value": 176.71, "entry_date": "2026-08-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-31T06:10:39.485036+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "SnRqRU56N8", "question": "Presidential Election in Venezuela by EOY 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 216, "shares": 257.2, "current_prob": 0.056, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Thesis check: Rodriguez told UNGA 9/23-24 there 'will be elections' but gave no date and said the people would choose 'the right moment'. A presidential vote needs a CNE calendar, and with ~3 months left no date has been set. Holding ~6%. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-09-23/venezuelas-rodriguez-promises-elections https://www.rte.ie/news/2026/0924/1592737-venezuela-elections/", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SqrtMinusOne/presidential-election-in-venezuela", "unrealized_value": 242.8, "entry_date": "2026-09-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-28T20:06:25.514610+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "CznC5ySpLt", "question": "Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 132, "shares": 161.06, "current_prob": 0.10684509616765792, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 147, "close_date": "2027-03-31T04:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-topcon-technology-share-of-glo-gOc2SyltQZ", "unrealized_value": 143.85, "entry_date": "2026-08-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-31T04:54:09.096294+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "gUcCcLq8IS", "question": "Will TOPCon technology share of global solar cell production exceed 90% for 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 66, "shares": 84.7, "current_prob": 0.16648811983137418, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 513, "close_date": "2028-03-31T04:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/will-topcon-technology-share-of-glo-Z9SpZRI0Up", "unrealized_value": 70.6, "entry_date": "2026-08-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-31T04:54:31.615243+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "02NlSsRNtA", "question": "How many Hurricanes in 2026? [answer SsIcy68yp0]", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.43, "shares": 5.8211, "current_prob": 0.0833, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7517: NHC best tracks fetched this cycle (https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal102026.dat) show Josephine peaked 55kt SS/EX, never HU; storms 01-10 have exactly one HU (Isaias, https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092026.dat). Prior c7370 sources (Fox35 Isaias, NHC TCDAT5 Josephine adv 1) are superseded: the Josephine branch (~.15) is now dead. NHC TWO 02 Nov 1138Z (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xml/TWOAT.xml) has one area, 20%/7d subtropical, unfavorable by weekend. Quiet El Nino season, 59 days left: P(another hurricane) ~.10.", "prob_at_bet": 0.5, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MickBransfield/how-many-hurricanes-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 0.48, "entry_date": "2026-11-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-02T13:36:56.906240+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "02NlSsRNtA", "question": "How many Hurricanes in 2026? [answer 0UU99O6dLP]", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 35, "shares": 258.8015, "current_prob": 0.0226, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7517: NHC best tracks fetched this cycle (https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal102026.dat) show Josephine peaked 55kt SS/EX, never HU; storms 01-10 have exactly one HU (Isaias, https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092026.dat). Prior c7370 sources (Fox35 Isaias, NHC TCDAT5 Josephine adv 1) are superseded: the Josephine branch (~.15) is now dead. NHC TWO 02 Nov 1138Z (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xml/TWOAT.xml) has one area, 20%/7d subtropical, unfavorable by weekend. Quiet El Nino season, 59 days left: P(another hurricane) ~.10. Ladder: 1 = .885, 2 = .10, 3 = .01 (needs two more hurricanes in Nov-Dec).", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MickBransfield/how-many-hurricanes-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 5.85, "entry_date": "2026-11-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-02T13:37:11.879730+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nPcR866qIu", "question": "Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 261.75, "shares": 322.525, "current_prob": 0.1391, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 30, "close_date": "2026-12-04T13:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7495: Kalshi KXU3-26NOV-T4.5 yes bid 0.02 / ask 0.05, KXU3-26OCT-T4.5 0.00/0.01 (fetched 08:31Z, https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXU3&status=open). Prior .14 (c7220, Sept U-3 4.2 from https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10022026.htm, sd-based 12-16%) was set equal to the Manifold price; the Kalshi Oct book (~1%) removes most of the Oct leg of the needed +0.27 move, leaving one month. Nov thin book so I sit a bit above its mid.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-november-2026-us-unemploym", "unrealized_value": 277.66, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T08:29:04.858845+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "zq5CEPduAA", "question": "Will the October 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 33.11, "current_prob": 0.1549, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 2, "close_date": "2026-11-06T13:25:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7495: Kalshi KXU3-26OCT-T4.5 yes bid 0.00 / ask 0.01, last 0.01, vol 30.5k (fetched 08:31Z, https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXU3&status=open) - the deep book on the same BLS Oct print prices >=4.5 at ~1%. Prior .06 (BLS Sept 4.2%, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) still carries as the base; Kalshi adds the market's read of claims/ADP since. Print 11-06 13:30Z.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-the-october-2026-us-unemployme", "unrealized_value": 27.98, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T08:29:03.866654+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "uPnORdI5E9", "question": "Will Argentina's monthly inflation drop below 1% in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 290.0, "shares": 375.64, "current_prob": 0.118, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7337 span re-derivation: INDEC Sept 2026 CPI printed 1.9% m/m (core 1.7%), an ACCELERATION from Aug 1.7% (https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/10/13/la-inflacion-en-septiembre-fue-de-19-y-acumulo-334-en-los-ultimos-doce-meses/). Only Oct (due ~mid-Nov) and Nov (~mid-Dec) prints land before the 12/31 close; a sub-1.0 print needs a >0.9pp one-month drop from a rising trend. SPAN: through 2026-11-14 (Oct print).", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/bbno/will-argentinas-monthly-inflation-d", "unrealized_value": 331.31, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T00:29:03.067683+00:00", "note": "c6641 M$79 mkt + c6641 M$211 limit @20% FILLED 2026-09-01", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "UAzPpgZNIU", "question": "Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 79, "shares": 148.72, "current_prob": 0.54044897256278, "my_estimate": 0.7, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7340 URGENT thesis-check revalidation: searched for news on Hassabis since the Aug 5 reshuffle and found nothing new; he remains Alphabet chief scientist + DeepMind chair + Isomorphic CEO, all of which count YES under the criteria. Held at .70. https://www.qatar-tribune.com/article/247743/business/googles-ai-reset-begins-with-hassabis-move/amp", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/demis-hassabis-still-at-google-end", "unrealized_value": 80.38, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T04:40:37.144138+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "AIUR6QQE6c", "question": "Will Demis Hassabis still be at Google at the end of 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 17.9, "shares": 21.8, "current_prob": 0.9553, "my_estimate": 0.97, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6642: Hassabis stepped down as GDM CEO Aug 5-6 2026 but is Chair of Google DeepMind + Alphabet Chief Scientist + still leads Isomorphic Labs. Resolution text explicitly names Chairman and Chief Scientist as qualifying roles at Alphabet/Google/GDM/Isomorphic. Market set at 72.5% initial by creator; headline-vs-criteria mispricing. Also M$42 rested YES @90%, expires 2026-09-15.", "prob_at_bet": 0.725, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/StephenBank/will-demis-hassabis-still-be-at-goo", "unrealized_value": 20.83, "entry_date": "2026-09-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-01T17:38:50.309033+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OIQgS2QLqL", "question": "Will the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 397.87, "shares": 479.7832, "current_prob": 0.02, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:59+00:00", "reasoning": "c7493 age-selected refresh, held at .02. The court path my prior reason named now exists: Sibanye-Stillwater filed a CIT summons on 2026-07-16 appealing the ITC negative injury determination (https://miningmx.com/news/pgms/2026-07-21-sibanye-challenges-us-over-russia-palladium-imports/ seen as search summary; ITC release https://www.usitc.gov/press_room/news_release/2026/er0529_68662.htm). A CIT appeal runs on complaint plus briefing over many months, then a remand and a fresh ITC vote, so no AD order can issue by 2026-12-31. Prior sources (trade.gov final determination, policyrisk 2026-12219) still carry: Commerce side affirmative, injury side negative. [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: seen only as a WebSearch summary]", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CurtisSteele/will-the-us-impose-antidumping-duti", "unrealized_value": 470.19, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T05:52:19.920552+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "2pz0OPsL0z", "question": "Will palladium prices increase by more than 5% due to U.S. antidumping duties on Russian supply by December 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 417, "shares": 503.66, "current_prob": 0.030773106936497818, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 107, "close_date": "2027-02-19T21:02:08.043000+00:00", "reasoning": "c7178 sourced re-derivation: Commerce found dumping (132.83%, final 2026-04-28) and subsidies (109.10%), but the USITC final injury vote on 2026-06-15 was NEGATIVE (imports not injuring US industry). Without an affirmative ITC injury finding, no AD/CVD order issues. Only a court remand could revive it, and not on this timescale. https://www.trade.gov/final-determination-ad-investigation-unwrought-palladium-russian-federation https://policyrisk.com/federal-register/2026-12219 Price-move market needs duties to exist first, so it is capped by the duty probability.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CurtisSteele/will-palladium-prices-increase-by-m-P5PzQO8ZUE", "unrealized_value": 488.16, "entry_date": "2026-10-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-01T19:22:30.160987+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "E2y906QSn5", "question": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May 31st 2027? [Polymarket]", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 8.58, "shares": 15.2143, "current_prob": 0.3963, "my_estimate": 0.31, "days_to_close": 208, "close_date": "2027-05-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BillClintonBubba/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-2UhN220t60", "unrealized_value": 9.18, "entry_date": "2026-09-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-07T23:04:20.573025+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "lCEyglLQzO", "question": "Will OpenAI officially confirm that Astra uses a recurrent-depth (looped) architecture by Dec 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 39, "shares": 59.02, "current_prob": 0.3621, "my_estimate": 0.28, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-openai-officially-confirm-that", "unrealized_value": 37.65, "entry_date": "2026-09-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-02T14:24:58.355530+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "N9ZS9hLqL8", "question": "Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 381, "shares": 526.3793, "current_prob": 0.99, "my_estimate": 0.97, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-10-14T12:29:00+00:00", "reasoning": "AAA document unchanged in direction: regular averaged ~4.40-4.49 through late Sept vs 4.12 on Sep 2 (https://gasprices.aaa.com/ fetched c7196), so Sept energy CPI is up sharply and the reference month is closed. Kalshi KXCPI-26SEP T0.3 .97/.98 calibrates the level (https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?event_ticker=KXCPI-26SEP).", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-september-2026-headline-cpiu-r", "unrealized_value": 521.12, "entry_date": "2026-10-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-02T19:46:47.400036+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "RPuIILlnyU", "question": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the the NJ prediction market case by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 171, "shares": 274.94, "current_prob": 0.3736, "my_estimate": 0.27, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7133 thesis-check re-derive (was unsourced). Split is real and acknowledged (3d Cir. Apr 2026 vs 9th Cir. Aug 28), petition 26-299 filed 9/2 (https://www.njoag.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2026-0902_26-_PetitionForWritOfCertiorari.pdf), so an eventual grant is likely. But the bar is a grant BEFORE 1/1/2027: Kalshi (Katyal) requested a 30-day extension of its BIO from Oct 8 to Nov 9 (https://pmpulse.substack.com/p/the-pm-pulse-049). Earliest realistic conference is mid-December; a second extension (the winner below wants delay), a CVSG (CFTC preemption issue), or a hold for Kalshi's own 9th Cir petition each push it to 2027. ~0.5 x ~0.55 = ~0.27. 0.22 -> 0.27, market 0.37, hold NO M$171.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MickBransfield/will-the-us-supreme-court-grant-cer-p5tt9qhhOZ", "unrealized_value": 172.22, "entry_date": "2026-09-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-29T06:30:13.253107+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "2ROytEtuu0", "question": "Will the US Postal Service be officially privatized by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 108, "shares": 124.23, "current_prob": 0.048, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-us-postal-service-be-offic", "unrealized_value": 118.27, "entry_date": "2026-09-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-03T08:19:26.926354+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "hdRyZgdzPp", "question": "Will Nicolás Maduro be convicted in a U.S. federal court before January 1, 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 120, "shares": 144.08, "current_prob": 0.0283, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/johnNZOy/will-nicolas-maduro-be-convicted-in", "unrealized_value": 140.0, "entry_date": "2026-09-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-03T16:07:11.270302+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nws2608264", "question": "Will Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 80, "shares": 94.73, "current_prob": 0.0869, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-10-31T11:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7460 age-chosen re-derive, ~25h before close (Oct 31 11:59Z): a search for an Iran-Oman permanent scheme found only the Aug 26 temporary routes and continued talks, no permanent announcement (https://shipandbunker.com/news/emea/633132-oman-opens-temporary-shipping-corridor-without-tolls-in-strait-of-hormuz). Prior sources still carry: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/26/iran-oman-agree-on-temporary-hormuz-route-what-we-know (temporary route, permanent one deferred) describes today's state; https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html (US-Iran talks unresolved) has worsened, with new Hormuz mine claims in a CNBC 10/30 headline. Remaining risk is a surprise announcement within one day. SPAN: through 2026-10-31 [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: CNBC 10/30 headline seen only in a Google Alert; WebFetch returned 403]", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/prismatic/will-iran-and-oman-announce-a-perma", "unrealized_value": 86.5, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T10:12:52.153803+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "LRQdLUz8Rg", "question": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant cert or agree to hear arguments in the Texas DACA case by February 27, 2027? (2/27/27)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 136, "shares": 170.49, "current_prob": 0.1203, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 114, "close_date": "2027-02-26T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Web3ICP/will-the-us-supreme-court-grant-cer-pduhnLpcsn", "unrealized_value": 149.98, "entry_date": "2026-09-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-03T23:00:33.538350+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "nws2608265", "question": "Will Armenia formally apply for EU membership by December 31, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 44.63, "shares": 120.91, "current_prob": 0.4018, "my_estimate": 0.42, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Thesis check c7166: no formal application found as of 10/1. Pashinyan 8/24 said 'near future', gated on EAEU partner concerns; resolution excludes statements of intent. 3 months left, so real YES risk, holding .42. https://www.euronews.com/2026/08/25/armenia-announces-historic-intention-to-apply-for-eu-membership https://armenianweekly.com/2026/08/28/armenia-drifts-from-russia-but-eu-membership-may-remain-out-of-reach/", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/prismatic/will-armenia-formally-apply-for-eu", "unrealized_value": 72.33, "entry_date": "2026-10-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-01T01:35:41.684259+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "2SuL6tC6y8", "question": "Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 119, "shares": 228.81, "current_prob": 0.7321, "my_estimate": 0.45, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7325 span renewal, re-read criteria: AA Intelligence Index 62 + HLE 55.5 bar stays binding since AA runs every model. Gemini 4 Argon API launched 10-13 at $2/$10 introductory (https://www.marktechpost.com/2026/10/13/google-gemini-4-argon-api-release/): $10 output still 2x the $5 bar (Fable 5 $50/10) and AA 53 < 62. Creator clarification 10-11 already in. SPAN: through 2026-11-13 (Gemini 4 Flash window).", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-any-model-at-least-as-good-as-qzn2sLyP2C", "unrealized_value": 61.3, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T07:55:26.762235+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "Zq2Ocus8uA", "question": "Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 71.01, "shares": 512.62, "current_prob": 0.8945, "my_estimate": 0.72, "days_to_close": 147, "close_date": "2027-03-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7350 prose repair (no value change): BenAybar's 10-11 clarification on the Dec sibling (untested benchmarks drop out, >=75% of the rest must be matched) applies here too: same creator, identical clause (https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-any-model-at-least-as-good-as). It loosened the Dec sibling by about 7 points (that sibling now sits near .45), so +4 here to .72. AA index 62 + HLE 55.5 still binding; Gemini 4 Argon at $10 output / AA 53 fails both legs (https://www.marktechpost.com/2026/10/13/google-gemini-4-argon-api-release/). SPAN: through 2026-11-13.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-any-model-at-least-as-good-as", "unrealized_value": 54.08, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T18:19:58.154209+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "hPzCNhccnL", "question": "US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 213, "shares": 287.57, "current_prob": 0.157, "my_estimate": 0.16, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7260: Trump 10-08 pledged no strikes before the midterms and called the Qatar-mediated talks productive; together with his UNGA remark that a deal could come after the election, the post-election deal path is real, but a permanent-language deal by Dec 31 stays unlikely after the June MOU collapsed. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/trump-says-no-iran-strikes-midterms-amid-productive-talks", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CryptoNeoLiberalist/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-d", "unrealized_value": 242.42, "entry_date": "2026-10-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-08T21:06:55.121081+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "SttEd9UARg", "question": "Will there be over 215 Republican seats after the midterm elections in the House of Representatives?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 40, "shares": 53.59, "current_prob": 0.1172, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7406 re-derivation by age: davemanuel.com forecast dated 2026-10-27 projects House D 235 / R 200, P(D win House) 94%, 90% interval 217-259 D seats. R >215 needs D <=219, i.e. near the bottom 5-8% tail of that interval. Est .08. Source https://www.davemanuel.com/2026-midterm-forecast.php", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/KingAK/will-there-be-over-215-republican-s", "unrealized_value": 47.31, "entry_date": "2026-10-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-27T10:43:12.107306+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "nts6Ry9sgZ", "question": "Will Anthropic IPO by….?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 183, "shares": 403.9372, "current_prob": 0.0083, "my_estimate": 0.035, "days_to_close": 56, "close_date": "2026-12-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6959 COHERENCE with the sibling I just moved. Same new primary: Anthropic pushed the IPO to November FROM an October target, explicitly to price on fresh Q3 numbers (https://crypto.news/anthropic-targets-november-ipo/, https://www.pymnts.com/news/artificial-intelligence/2026/anthropic-could-seek-2-trillion-valuation-in-record-ipo/). I set sRZh88Suty ('IPO in October', the October-only slice) to 0.03 this cycle. This leg is CUMULATIVE 'by Oct 31' = P(by Sep 30) + P(October). With 11 days of September left and no public S-1 on EDGAR as of 09-18, P(by Sep 30) is ~0.005, so this leg must read ~0.035 to stay coherent with its own subset. 0.06 -> 0.035. Same disclosure as the sibling: I hold NO, so this flatters me; the news is position-independent and I would move it identically holding YES. NO edge is ~5.5pp, under the 10pp floor — NO ADD.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-anthropic-ipo-by", "unrealized_value": 400.58, "entry_date": "2026-09-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-19T20:40:21.005200+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "nts6Ry9sgZ", "question": "Will Anthropic IPO by….?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 10.65, "shares": 87.5298, "current_prob": 0.85, "my_estimate": 0.86, "days_to_close": 56, "close_date": "2026-12-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7390: EDGAR shows Anthropic PBC Form S-1 publicly filed 2026-10-26, accepted 13:00:11Z (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0002130357.json). Public flip done, so the 15-day rule allows a roadshow from ~Nov 10; Bloomberg/Investing.com 10/26 report listing as soon as Nov 19-20 (https://za.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-said-to-plan-9-am-s1-filing-as-midnovember-ipo-remains-on-track-4525243). Residual risk is market turmoil or a slip past Thanksgiving week. SPAN: through 2026-11-30", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-anthropic-ipo-by", "unrealized_value": 13.13, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T13:27:37.525827+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "C09ytQZ8AR", "question": "Elections in Ukraine called before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 116, "shares": 137.85, "current_prob": 0.1337, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7314 thesis check: Zelensky told ABC 10/11 he would organize elections only after a full 60-day ceasefire, and Trump on 10/10 called for a new president. Pressure is real but the condition is a Russian-agreed ceasefire, which has not happened. Nudge 5%->8% for the added political pressure; NO still holds vs 15%. https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/10/11/ukraine039s-zelenskiy-tells-abc-he-will-organize-elections-if-russia-agrees-to-60-day-ceasefire https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/10/11/8057475/", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Avesoller/elections-in-ukraine-called-before", "unrealized_value": 119.42, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T16:38:58.398145+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "upNUIlCluy", "question": "Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 152, "shares": 223.32, "current_prob": 0.84, "my_estimate": 0.92, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7527: WSJ (Seligman/Ward) reports U.S. officials confirm the U.S. attacked Iran's Qeshm Island Mon 2026-11-02, latest of a series of limited strikes in recent weeks, i.e. after the 09-05 creation date (https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-strikes-irans-qeshm-island-near-strait-of-hormuz-wsj-202611030142 ; https://investinglive.com/commodities/more-on-us-strikes-on-qeshm-officials-confirm-attack-as-trump-plays-down-war-risk/). Prior c7260 tanker-strike source (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/9/us-destroys-five-iranian-tankers-iran-retaliates-with-attacks-on-jordan-base) still holds; the new report removes my doubt about whether a strike on Iranian territory itself had happened. Prior al-monitor source (https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/10/trump-says-no-iran-strikes-midterms-amid-productive-talks) on Trump saying no strikes before midterms no longer carries: officials say strikes happened anyway, kept quiet. Residual: creator may want an officially announced order. SPAN: through 2026-12-31 [paraphrased after check 460 refused a quote at 2026-11-03T02:40:19Z: strike on Iran proper] [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: seen only as WebSearch summaries]", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SaidRodrigues/donald-trump-ordenara-um-novo-ataqu", "unrealized_value": 187.59, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T02:40:34.082469+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "rGJSyulAUcnrcvoO7tid", "question": "Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 200, "shares": 261.24, "current_prob": 0.7866, "my_estimate": 0.86, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T21:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7371 thesis revalidation: Anthropic (one of the 13 named companies) has a confidential S-1 with the SEC and is reported to be targeting a listing as early as Oct-Nov 2026 (https://futurumgroup.com/insights/anthropic-files-for-ipo-looking-to-beat-openai-to-the-punch/). Manifold sister markets: S-1 public by Oct 31 at 77%, IPO-in-2026-and-cap-above-1.8T at 63%, which implies an Anthropic 2026 listing near 80%+. Other 12 names add a few points. Trimmed .89 to .86; hold, no add (YES at >=70% cap reached).", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/sortwie/will-any-existing-generative-ai-uni", "unrealized_value": 205.49, "entry_date": "2026-10-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-22T06:03:57.875666+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "lUSlZCgE2g", "question": "Will Anthropic have the best public model when they IPO?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25.540000000000003, "shares": 41.6892, "current_prob": 0.5911, "my_estimate": 0.52, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7306 correction (Clanky c1536 lead, verified): my stored reason said the IPO was probably 2027 with IPO-in-2026 near 2 percent. That was FALSE; the ~2 percent was the October-only number. Polymarket's IPO-by-date ladder gives Dec 31 0.695, Nov 30 0.525 (https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=anthropic%20ipo). So the ECI snapshot most likely lands late Nov. Opus 5.5 leads ECI 167.35 vs Astra 166.5 (https://huggingnews.com/ai/claude-opus-55-claims-top-spot-on-epoch-ai-index-with-167-score-cf82f2a4); next OpenAI Astra ~50% shipped by late Nov and would need to beat it; Argon trails on AA. P(lead|IPO)~0.65. No-IPO-by-close branch: NO reading -> 0.46, N/A reading -> 0.65; blend 0.52. Price 0.57: ~5pp, under floor. HOLD, no add.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SG/will-anthropic-have-the-best-public", "unrealized_value": 17.05, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T05:36:05.380565+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "Rpchg850Qh", "question": "Rpchg850Qh", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 2.91, "shares": 24.929, "current_prob": 0.0933, "my_estimate": 0.18000000000000016, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.18000000000000016, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-tesla-trade-above-500-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 2.33, "entry_date": "2026-08-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-06T16:44:54.772052+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "yAA259LCdu", "question": "Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? ", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 275, "shares": 339.99, "current_prob": 0.0376, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 26, "close_date": "2026-11-30T06:47:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7308 age re-derive: the Navier-Stokes Millennium claim is OpenAI's (2026-09-08). The Anthropic-linked work (Alpöge with Buckmaster, using Claude) is the zero-viscosity Euler case, credited in OpenAI's joint announcement. That is not an Anthropic announcement of the N-S Millennium solution. Market 3.7% agrees. Hold .03. https://www.deeplearning.ai/the-batch/openai-model-solves-navier-stokes-equations", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/did-claude-just-solve-navier-stokes", "unrealized_value": 327.21, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T08:16:54.391778+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "sLhpPUtPNO", "question": "Will a criminal investigation into OpenAI over the Hugging Face breach be publicly confirmed before 2028?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 56, "shares": 85.08, "current_prob": 0.2879, "my_estimate": 0.18, "days_to_close": 422, "close_date": "2027-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7266 thesis-check: Alabama AG probe (8/25) is a consumer-protection subpoena ('violated Alabama's consumer protection laws'), excluded like Montana's; the 15-AG letter is a records-preservation demand, not a criminal probe. No on-record criminal inquiry found. Hold 0.18. https://www.apr.org/news/2026-08-25/alabama-subpoenas-openai-over-alleged-data-breach", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CraigDemel/will-a-criminal-investigation-into", "unrealized_value": 60.59, "entry_date": "2026-10-09", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-09T05:26:37.135430+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "gCZPN8suSN", "question": "Will a publicly known AI model achieve an 80% time horizon of 3 weeks by April 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 34, "shares": 42.75, "current_prob": 0.2412, "my_estimate": 0.25, "days_to_close": 147, "close_date": "2027-03-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Blocksterpen3/will-a-publicly-known-ai-model-achi-c2N9zZdL50", "unrealized_value": 32.44, "entry_date": "2026-09-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-15T01:11:29.990613+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "8z65az4k9c", "question": "Will CrowdStrike pay more than $10m of civil or criminal liability for today's incident before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 343, "shares": 500.92, "current_prob": 0.2500068005506669, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7191 revalidation: no settlement or payout found as of 2026-10-02. Delta v CrowdStrike (Ga. state court) survived on negligence and is heading to discovery, no trial date; shareholder suit dismissed Jan 2026; the 2024 customer-commitment packages were discounts the creator never treated as payment. YES needs a disclosed >$10m payment by Jan 1 2027, ~3 months. https://www.travelpulse.com/news/airlines-airports/court-permits-delta-air-lines-to-sue-crowdstrike-over-computer-outage https://www.law360.co.uk/amp/articles/2342270", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/FranekZak/will-crowdstrike-pay-more-than-10m", "unrealized_value": 375.69, "entry_date": "2026-10-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-02T12:11:40.967773+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ROgl58QppQ", "question": "Will the 2025-26 US flu season be classified as \"high severity\" by the CDC?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.55, "shares": 46.0591, "current_prob": 0.012970068234480506, "my_estimate": 0.012970068234480506, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.012970068234480506, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/deletedaccount001/will-the-202526-us-flu-season-be-cl", "unrealized_value": 0.6, "entry_date": "2026-08-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-08T06:29:50.118755+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "l6oGTzTuqVDg1PbsO8mA", "question": "Will Tetsuya Yamagami, Shinzo Abe's assassin, be free before the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 30.25, "current_prob": 0.15694549266336644, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T14:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/c0m/will-tetsuya-yamagami-shinzo-abes-a", "unrealized_value": 25.5, "entry_date": "2026-09-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-07T13:31:09.694939+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "02NlSsRNtA", "question": "How many Hurricanes in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 170.63, "shares": 758.41, "current_prob": 0.7878, "my_estimate": 0.885, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7517: NHC best tracks fetched this cycle (https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal102026.dat) show Josephine peaked 55kt SS/EX, never HU; storms 01-10 have exactly one HU (Isaias, https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092026.dat). Prior c7370 sources (Fox35 Isaias, NHC TCDAT5 Josephine adv 1) are superseded: the Josephine branch (~.15) is now dead. NHC TWO 02 Nov 1138Z (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xml/TWOAT.xml) has one area, 20%/7d subtropical, unfavorable by weekend. Quiet El Nino season, 59 days left: P(another hurricane) ~.10. Ladder: 1 = .885, 2 = .10, 3+ = .015.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MickBransfield/how-many-hurricanes-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 597.48, "entry_date": "2026-11-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-02T13:37:04.886147+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "SCRRIC6unZ", "question": "SCRRIC6unZ", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 0.86, "shares": 2.106, "current_prob": 0.3605, "my_estimate": 0.40192059449392753, "days_to_close": 176, "close_date": "2027-04-29T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.40192059449392753, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BillClintonBubba/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-h5Q9h08ZEN", "unrealized_value": 0.76, "entry_date": "2026-08-09", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-09T00:21:58.326998+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "LASsdLuUcU", "question": "Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 47.29, "shares": 103.7701, "current_prob": 0.42, "my_estimate": 0.48, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7345 partial re-derive, prior sources still carry: BSW abstains (ostdeutscheallgemeine) and AfD 39/83 (wikipedia) unchanged; Schulze no-CDU-votes (t-online) is now stronger, since the CDU Fraktion voted 14-1 on 10-13 to LEAVE the chamber for the December vote (https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/deutschland/cdu-sachsen-anhalt-wahl-ministerpraesident-afd-siegmund-100.html). Mixed effect: it removes any CDU secret votes from ballots 1-2 (need 42), but with no CDU votes for a rival a plurality 3rd ballot is a clean Siegmund win. NEW DOWN: Siegmund has repeatedly said he runs only in the first ballot (same ZDF piece). Art. 65 (https://verfassungsblog.de/ministerprasidentenwahl-sachsen-anhalt/): 2nd ballot within 7 days, dissolution decision within 14 days, then plurality; an AfD Landtag president (Rausch, https://www.leinetal24.de/welt/ministerpraesidentenwahl-sachsen-anhalt-siegmunds-weg-zur-macht-zr-94517050.html) could compress all of it into Dec 15-17, so the January spill is not forced. MV is out (SPD/Linke/Greens talks, zdfheute). Net down 8pp to ~market; I tried .30 first and the anchor guard was right that it overshot. SPAN: through 2026-12-17.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on", "unrealized_value": 60.19, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T11:18:13.727253+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "gzUqqh6hpA", "question": "Will California elect a Republican governor in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 28.43, "current_prob": 0.03, "my_estimate": 0.025, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7446 age re-derive: Polymarket CA governor winner market (gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=california%20governor, fetched 2026-10-29 16:1xZ) has Steve Hilton (R) at 0.0235 vs Xavier Becerra (D) 0.976, ~$2.6-3.9M volume per leg, 5 days before the Nov 3 election. Matches my .025; hold. https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=california%20governor", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManunCP2g/will-california-elect-a-republican", "unrealized_value": 27.58, "entry_date": "2026-10-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-29T16:05:31.309583+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "5Oy8uCzPQL", "question": "Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 31.54, "current_prob": 0.257, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-chat-gpt-remove-or-hide-their-pzqdZUnItn", "unrealized_value": 23.43, "entry_date": "2026-09-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-08T14:21:48.601478+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "CL56c9sqQp", "question": "Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 5.09, "shares": 7.791, "current_prob": 0.28, "my_estimate": 0.4, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6947 SOURCED RE-DERIVATION, moves AGAINST my own NO. This belief was generating the briefing's #2 'top edge' row (28pp) and it was DEAD — set before I knew what was actually in flight. NEW FACTS fetched this cycle: (1) The Information reports OpenAI employees expect to soon crack the HODGE CONJECTURE, one of this market's five eligible problems (https://the-decoder.com/openai-reportedly-closes-in-on-solving-the-hodge-conjecture-its-second-millennium-prize-problem/). (2) Scientific American's expert survey ranks Hodge and Birch-Swinnerton-Dyer as the two MOST tractable for AI because language models are good at finding counterexamples, with Yang-Mills and P-vs-NP far off (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/which-million-dollar-math-problem-could-ai-solve-next/). So the live paths are concentrated on exactly the problems experts consider reachable, and a lab is already on one. My 0.31 did not know this. COUNTERWEIGHT, which is why this is 0.40 and not the market's 0.59: OpenAI has made only the narrower claim of 'substantial progress', NOT a proposed solution, and there is currently NO paper, NO code and NO authoritative confirmation — the Hodge story is rumor plus one trade report. Gizmodo reports OpenAI is deliberately SLOW-WALKING the next announcement after the math community pushed back hard on the Navier-Stokes rollout (https://gizmodo.com/openai-reportedly-trying-to-solve-hodge-conjecture-amid-feud-with-math-community-2000813658) — the backlash is a force pushing the formal announcement PAST this market's deadline, not toward it. The Anthropic/BSD leg traces to a single post on X. Chain: P(a formal announcement with paper/preprint/Lean by Dec 31) ~0.50 x P(resolves YES rather than NO or N/A | announced) ~0.65 = ~0.33, plus a little for a non-OpenAI surprise => 0.40. The second factor is low on purpose: the creator stated that if a solution stays CONTROVERSIAL he delays 2-3 months and leans NO or N/A, and given the math community's current fury any rushed OpenAI claim lands controversial by construction. SPAN: my evidence covers the full 103 days to 2026-12-31 because the thing I am tracking is an ANNOUNCEMENT DECISION at two named labs, and the decisive fact is about their disclosure posture (deliberate slow-walk under peer pressure), which is a standing stance for the period, not a snapshot. The span risk is one-sided and I name it: an OpenAI Hodge paper dropping in Oct-Nov would invalidate this fast. KILL CONDITION: any arXiv preprint, Lean repo or OpenAI/DeepMind/Anthropic blog post claiming a proposed solution to Hodge, BSD, Riemann, Yang-Mills or P-vs-NP -> re-derive immediately, do not wait for the weekly refresh.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HumanClanker/will-another-millennium-prize-probl", "unrealized_value": 5.61, "entry_date": "2026-09-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-19T05:53:29.348263+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "EuIEzLguZy", "question": "Will another spacecraft successfully land on the Moon in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 47.28, "current_prob": 0.3643, "my_estimate": 0.32, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SpaceEngineer/will-another-spacecraft-successfull", "unrealized_value": 30.06, "entry_date": "2026-09-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-10T01:49:57.933013+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nollit5on8", "question": "Will the US give out a stimulus check in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 369, "shares": 433.77, "current_prob": 0.1308, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7320 age-chosen re-derive (field had no reason): needs a federal law passed AND payments started or dated before 2027-01-01. Hawley's American Worker Rebate Act is still in Senate Finance; no tariff-dividend bill has moved; Trump's $5k promise (9/10) is a campaign line conditional on Nov 3, and the new Congress isn't seated until 1/3/2027. Only path is a lame-duck bill + date announced by 12/31. Price 13% has no writer since 9/13. https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/are-new-trump-payments-coming https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-000-tariff-dividend-coming-131643329.html SPAN: through 2026-11-15", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/singer/will-the-us-give-out-a-stimulus-che-do25j6fklu", "unrealized_value": 377.03, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T00:54:33.185022+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "OUusEq2dp8", "question": "US Average Gas Price Is $4.100 or more on Election Day 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 199.64, "shares": 284.36, "current_prob": 0.99, "my_estimate": 0.95, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7373: AAA regular 4.2701 on 10-22 (https://gasprices.aaa.com/), crude near $100. Kalshi KXAAAGASM-26OCT31-4.10 now .99 bid with 5132 on the bid, 4.20 .83/.87, 4.30 .38/.41 (https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXAAAGASM). Oct 31 print >=4.10 is near-certain; a 17c+ fall in the 3 days to Nov 3 would be unprecedented without a crude collapse. .81 -> .95. SPAN: through 2026-11-03", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/us-average-gas-price-is-4100-or-mor-ssIP8uqggz", "unrealized_value": 281.52, "entry_date": "2026-10-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-22T20:49:50.830193+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "usQsh80Auu", "question": "Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 44.57, "current_prob": 0.337, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6975 SOURCED CUT .32->.15 (rewriting the reason field: the .15 value was committed under a placeholder reason by a diagnostic run this same cycle — this is the real justification, and the placeholder should be read as a slip, not as a second independent agreement).\n\nWHY THE PRIOR SOURCES NO LONGER CARRY THE WEIGHT I GAVE THEM: the three behind my .32 — https://www.npr.org/2026/09/11/g-s1-142822/houthis-red-sea-port https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2026/09/houthis-seize-mokha-port-raising-concerns-over-red-sea-return/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/10/houthis-yemen-mokha-port-red-sea-bab-el-mandeb-iran-saudi-arabia-strait-hormuz/ — are still TRUE and I am not abandoning them. Houthi forces did seize Mokha on 2026-09-10 and do hold Mayun/Perim inside the strait. But all three report an EVENT and INFER a magnitude. This market does not resolve on the event, it resolves on a number, and that number is now directly observable where it was not on 09-14. When a forecasting source and the resolution source both speak, the resolution source wins.\n\nWHAT I MEASURED MYSELF: pulled IMF PortWatch Daily_Chokepoints_Data portid=chokepoint4 and rebuilt the 7-day moving average from all 2813 daily records. Basis check passes - my computed 7dMA for 2026-08-16 is 29.43 against the description's stated 29, same series same definition. Latest print 2026-09-13 is 27.29. Post-seizure dailies 27/22/20/31. The average went UP, not down.\n\nTHE ERROR IN MY OWN PRIOR REASONING, independent of the news: c6875 called 23.71 \"2026's low\". It is the ALL-TIME MINIMUM across 2807 seven-day-average prints back to 2019-01-01, and it was set 2026-09-01, NINE DAYS BEFORE Mokha fell. The series has never printed below 20 in seven years. The entire 2024 missile campaign bottomed at 25.29. I sized .32 believing the bar was a fall below a recent low. It is a 37 percent fall below a seven-year floor.\n\nNOT LOWER THAN .15: only 3 post-seizure days exist and rerouting takes 1-3 weeks; physical control of the island and the port is a regime the 2024 floor genuinely does not contain; 2026's median is inflated by Saudi oil diverted to dodge Hormuz, which is newly removable traffic. But printing below 15 also requires interdicting the sticky regional baseline - Djibouti, Jeddah, Port Sudan, Gulf of Aden feeders with no Cape alternative - which is a far bigger step than taking a port.\n\nKILL-SWITCH REPLACED, the old one was broken: \"below 20\" cannot function as an early warning because the series has never reached it - by the time it fired I would already have lost. NEW TRIPWIRE: any 7dMA print below 23.71 is a new all-time low and the first real evidence the regime changed. PortWatch updates Tuesdays; 2026-09-22 is the first update covering a full post-seizure week.\n\nHOLD at the 25 percent thin-book cap, no add exists. https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c https://services9.arcgis.com/weJ1QsnbMYJlCHdG/arcgis/rest/services/Daily_Chokepoints_Data/FeatureServer/0/query", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Xiphias/will-the-7day-moving-average-of-shi", "unrealized_value": 29.55, "entry_date": "2026-09-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-20T15:58:41.020878+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "c27yl1w7l0", "question": "Will the FDA approve a psychedelic-assisted therapy for a mental disorder by 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 32, "shares": 52.1, "current_prob": 0.2756, "my_estimate": 0.2, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JaySocrates/will-the-fda-approve-a-psychedelica-cn3si5tyd6", "unrealized_value": 37.74, "entry_date": "2026-09-11", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-11T06:40:38.930720+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "EptlI0nRch", "question": "Will USPS reject at least 100,000 mail ballots due to Trump's executive order in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 397, "shares": 522.18, "current_prob": 0.2046, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7353 age-refresh, confirming 0.04: the nationwide injunction against the USPS Ballot Mail rule still stands after the Supreme Court denied the DOJ stay (https://www.jurist.org/news/2026/09/us-supreme-court-rejects-doj-bid-to-stay-injunction-blocking-usps-mail-in-ballot-rule/). USPS told the courts it will not enforce the rule while the injunctions are in place (https://electionlawblog.org/2026/breaking-usps-issues-final-rule-on-handling-mail-ballots-following-trumps-mail-in-executive-order-federal-government-says-in-court-filings-it-cannot-enforce-it-with-two-injunctions-against-it-in-p/). The 0.21 price is my own last order; there has been no trade since. SPAN: through 2026-11-13. The market counts only ballots refused to 2026 midterm voters, and midterm ballot mail stops moving by about mid-November (latest state receipt deadlines). So the evidence has to cover the rule staying blocked until then. Any refusal would need an appellate reversal plus USPS enforcement inside the next ~4 weeks. After that window, Dec 31 is only a reporting deadline. Residual ~.04.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/NicholasWeininger/will-usps-reject-at-least-100000-ma", "unrealized_value": 415.34, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T22:47:38.187984+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "tlLCsz85QZ", "question": "Will the United States pass federal legislation regulating AI in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 124, "shares": 185.11, "current_prob": 0.2213, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7156: Semafor 2026-09-29, Senate AI safety talks stalled, no committee action before the election https://www.semafor.com/article/09/29/2026/bipartisan-ai-safety-talks-stall-out-in-senate ; Cruz blocked the UC attempt 9/29 https://thehill.com/policy/technology/6118009-senator-ted-cruz-blocks-ai-bill/ . SPAN: this evidence covers only through the Nov 3 election. The residual 10% IS the uncovered lame duck (Nov 9 to Dec 31), where a standalone binding AI statute would need committee markup, floor passage in both chambers and a signature in about 7 weeks. A preemption rider on the NDAA is excluded by the criteria.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JimD/will-the-united-states-pass-federal", "unrealized_value": 144.15, "entry_date": "2026-09-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-30T12:05:08.206884+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "6QEEcqp2lh", "question": "US Average DIESEL Price Is $6.000 or more on Election Day 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 52.1, "shares": 90.1722, "current_prob": 0.9903, "my_estimate": 0.97, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7423: AAA national diesel 6.3499 today (yesterday 6.3521, week ago 6.3174, month ago 6.4531; https://gasprices.aaa.com/). The prior source (same AAA page, 6.309 on c7374) still carries and now reads higher: the cushion over 6.00 is 35 cents with 6 days left and the price rose this week instead of falling. A 35c national drop in 6 days needs an oil collapse. .91 -> .97. SPAN: through 2026-11-03", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/us-average-diesel-price-is-6000-or", "unrealized_value": 89.3, "entry_date": "2026-10-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-28T09:52:28.285194+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "uzyzl5SUZR", "question": "What will be the Federal Target Rate range after the final FOMC meeting of 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 44, "shares": 126.7, "current_prob": 0.802, "my_estimate": 0.75, "days_to_close": 42, "close_date": "2026-12-16T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7464 re-derive: the Oct 27-28 FOMC HELD (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm lists only the 2026-09-17 +25 to 3.75-4.00), so the leg now needs a December hike alone. Polymarket Fed Decision in December (~M$2M/leg, https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=fed%20december%202026): +25bp .725, +50bp+ .0175 = .74 hike. Prior .82 rested on the Sept dot plot (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html) and 9/17 futures; the Oct hold spent one of the two meetings those projections allowed, and the deep book is the newer instrument. Take .75. Hold, no add (market .80).", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MauricioGutierrez/what-will-be-the-federal-target-rat", "unrealized_value": 101.61, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T15:30:05.326932+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "LCySySL9gz", "question": "OpenAI discovers room-temperature superconductor before EOY?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 30.15, "current_prob": 0.0303, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/jim/openai-discovers-roomtemperature-su", "unrealized_value": 29.24, "entry_date": "2026-09-12", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-12T16:29:27.725568+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "RlUyR6R0c5", "question": "Will AI solve another Millennium Prize Problem (besides Navier–Stokes) before September 15, 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 22.1, "shares": 56.0785, "current_prob": 0.8611, "my_estimate": 0.58, "days_to_close": 314, "close_date": "2027-09-14T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Re-derivation vs stale conviction: OpenAI 10-06 math release (https://github.com/openai/math) shows partial results on 3 Millennium problems in one month. Still no full claim; criteria need a full proof. .50 -> .58, market .76 too high.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/LavrovAndrey/will-ai-solve-another-millennium-pr", "unrealized_value": 7.79, "entry_date": "2026-10-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-07T06:10:40.321142+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "YVKVi0q49Cuy1gCys4HI", "question": "Will the Steve Kirsch/Rootclaim bet about COVID-19 vaccine deaths resolve to a tie?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 16.31, "shares": 40.0777, "current_prob": 0.3959, "my_estimate": 0.34, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T08:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7007 REVERSAL-ACK — walking back my own 0.25 from minutes ago. The new source my previous write did NOT cite is the term sheet itself: https://www.skirsch.com/covid/GreatDebateTermsheet.pdf. I wrote 0.25 off two Manifold PRICES and nothing else; c6874 had read the Picker clause in that PDF, which requires mutually-agreed judges whose initial vote on the subject must sum to zero — deliberate balance. With two balanced judges a single holdout or one 0-score IS a tie, so fewer judges makes a tie MORE likely, and the honest bracket is 0.25-0.45, center 0.387. I displaced a primary-document belief with a price belief and the tool allowed it because it checks that I have a source, not that I have a BETTER one. The incoherence I found is real but its likelier seat is the thick sibling book failing to price an obscure Dec-2024 AI-summarised creator comment that a tie resolves it at 50% (https://manifold.markets/Alfie/will-rootclaim-win-their-1000000-co), not this thin market's reasoned band; and my decisive-verdict precedent (Rootclaim v Miller, COVID origins) had no no-pay band and no balanced-priors picker, so it does not transfer. Shading the sourced center down for genuine coherence pressure rather than replacing it: 0.387 -> 0.34.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-steve-kirschrootclaim-bet-85059c0386c7", "unrealized_value": 15.87, "entry_date": "2026-09-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-22T08:43:29.357598+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ZRONZcZ26y", "question": "Will Rootclaim win their $1,000,000 Covid vaccine debate with Steve Kirsch?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 121, "shares": 1676.54, "current_prob": 0.9214, "my_estimate": 0.8, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T13:29:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7132: an unpriced wording gap against my NO. IsaacKing's tie market defines a tie as a total judge score of -3 to +3 (https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-steve-kirschrootclaim-bet). Alfie's market resolves 'based on the judges decision', with a tie at 50% (https://manifold.markets/Alfie/will-rootclaim-win-their-1000000-co). A Rootclaim-majority result at +1 to +3 is a tie under the bet terms, but a reader could fairly call it a Rootclaim win here. So the fair value runs from 0.747 (bet-terms reading) to ~0.85 (majority reading); 0.80 splits it. Sibling prices unchanged (tie 0.396, Kirsch 0.091). Holding NO M$121. No add: the kelly M$74 add rests on the low end of the range, and the debate has had no update in ~8 months (creator, 09-21), so capital could sit frozen past close.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Alfie/will-rootclaim-win-their-1000000-co", "unrealized_value": 131.78, "entry_date": "2026-09-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-29T05:06:08.844788+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "RChOONslh8", "question": "Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 49.22, "shares": 593.0809, "current_prob": 0.9555, "my_estimate": 0.88, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-02T02:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6985 RATCHET-ACK. Guard 190 is correct that 0.40->0.75->0.92 is a walk that closes on the price, and being sourced at every step is the failure mode not the defence. So I went looking for evidence pointing DOWN, which I had never once done on this market, and I found some — which is why I am committing 0.88 and not the 0.92 I was about to write. EVIDENCE THAT WOULD MOVE THIS THE OTHER WAY, NAMED: a leading expert in the relevant field publicly disputing that Lean-formalised finite-time blowup WITH a forcing term settles the Clay problem in the general-acceptance sense. That dissent already partly exists and I had been ignoring it: Tristan Buckmaster (NYU, a top Navier-Stokes/Euler figure) is quoted in the same Quanta piece I keep citing FOR the YES case saying one of these papers \"can only be described as AI slop. I am sorry for this.\" — https://www.quantamagazine.org/ai-has-solved-one-of-maths-1-million-millennium-prize-problems-20260908/ . Quanta also says sorting out \"the mathematical significance of the new AI proofs\" will take time. Terence Tao has not weighed in on OpenAI work at all. So \"consensus among leading experts\" — this market ONLY passing branch, since I publicly withdrew the refereed-journal reading on 09-15 — is contestable, not settled. CHAIN: P(proof correct) ~0.99 (Lean-checked, verbatim from Quanta); P(leading-expert consensus by Dec 31) ~0.90 (Fefferman, who wrote the Clay statement, on record \"I was thrilled that the problem was solved\"; Buckmaster hostile; Tao silent); P(resolver Grothenfla resolves on the consensus branch and not the strict clause or N/A) ~0.95, and he never answered my direct 09-14 question. 0.99*0.90*0.95 = 0.847, rounded up to 0.88 for the 96pct crowd of 118 bettors knowing something I do not. FALSIFIER FOR THE NEW NUMBER: Tao or Constantin endorsing publicly moves it to 0.95; a second named NS expert joining Buckmaster moves it to 0.70.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Grothenfla/will-some-millennium-prize-prize-pr", "unrealized_value": 26.39, "entry_date": "2026-09-21", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-21T04:26:13.988454+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "sQcUOOgdPO", "question": "10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 200, "shares": 310.24, "current_prob": 0.96, "my_estimate": 0.92, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7154: Treasury par curve 10 Yr 09/29 5.26 (09/25 5.17), 76bp above the 4.50 bar with ~64 business days left. With ~50bp sigma over the horizon, P(<4.50 on 12/31) is ~7-8%, fat tails included. .89->.92. Market .94: hold. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SuperTaxGenius/10-year-treasury-yield-at-45-on-123-pQ5S25Lhlq", "unrealized_value": 297.83, "entry_date": "2026-09-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-30T09:25:48.904198+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "rm00b4hi5e", "question": "Will California legalise sports betting by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 500, "shares": 809.92, "current_prob": 0.0738, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7404 age-triage re-check, held at 0.07: re-fetched CA SOS qualified measures for the Nov 3 2026 ballot today. Still Props 1-5 and 37-45, none on sports betting or gaming; the next listed statewide ballots are March and November 2028 (https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/qualified-ballot-measures). The closed-window thesis stands; the residual covers resolution ambiguity, not a live legal path. SPAN: through 2026-12-31.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/prezlus/will-california-legalise-sports-bet", "unrealized_value": 750.15, "entry_date": "2026-10-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-27T09:11:16.276562+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "lta9luklpr", "question": "Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 97.44, "shares": 162.3603, "current_prob": 0.69, "my_estimate": 0.78, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.6500000000000011, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/will-the-arc-agi-grand-prize-be-cla-svtrhb42tx", "unrealized_value": 112.03, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T11:40:52.478039+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "CpQqI6tygA", "question": "Will the Houthis attack Saudi Arabia again before September 15, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 62, "shares": 102.13, "current_prob": 0.0682, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-09-14T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AhmadSayahi/will-the-houthis-attack-saudi-arabi", "unrealized_value": 95.16, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T19:08:43.940250+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "NI8OdpN2UI", "question": "Will there be large voting fraud accusations following 2026 midterms?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 50, "shares": 71.63, "current_prob": 0.9065, "my_estimate": 0.95, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Chimpy/will-there-be-large-voting-fraud-ac", "unrealized_value": 64.93, "entry_date": "2026-09-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-15T01:11:09.347796+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ugulczAEgc", "question": "Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 34.39, "current_prob": 0.0731, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Pent/anthropic-removes-claude-code-from", "unrealized_value": 31.88, "entry_date": "2026-09-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-15T02:23:16.280540+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "LtRgh65Auh", "question": "Will Trump's approval rating drop below 35% (538/RCP average) at any point in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 33.68, "current_prob": 0.22665691930029286, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-trumps-approval-rating-drop-be", "unrealized_value": 26.05, "entry_date": "2026-09-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-15T21:32:15.860737+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "OQP5UhqN8L", "question": "Will Pete Hegseth be impeached by the house in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 29.76, "current_prob": 0.203, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-pete-hegseth-be-impeached-by-t", "unrealized_value": 23.72, "entry_date": "2026-09-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-15T22:42:12.651933+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nEUCdz5As9", "question": "Will Missouris Redistricting Referendum pass?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 455.99, "current_prob": 0.28, "my_estimate": 0.3, "days_to_close": 14, "close_date": "2026-11-18T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7506 pre-vote refresh, held at .30. New since c7207: KCUR 10-28 reports People Not Politicians (against Prop A) took in 5.4 million dollars in large contributions since mid-September, while Put Missouri First (for) has reported no large donations since July (https://www.kcur.org/politics-elections-and-government/2026-10-28/missouri-proposition-a-opposition-redistricting-map-election-2026). Last public poll is still the Aug SLU/YouGov 35 yes / 32 no / 33 unsure (https://www.slu.edu/news/2026/september/slu-poll.php). Money gap points NO, R+18 partisan cue points YES; they offset, so no move. Vote 11-03.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-missouris-redistricting-refere", "unrealized_value": 328.31, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T23:07:57.104560+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "sqpIOSN925", "question": "sqpIOSN925", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 2.67, "shares": 35.0244, "current_prob": 0.0535, "my_estimate": 0.2, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.5, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Sketchy/navierstokes-drama-prop-bets", "unrealized_value": 1.87, "entry_date": "2026-09-17", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-17T19:45:56.198040+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "dRAPp0ALgL", "question": "Bitcoin above 90k before 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 135.91, "shares": 276.9645, "current_prob": 0.39, "my_estimate": 0.37, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7463 driftless touch re-derive at new spot: BTC 76,811 (https://api.coinbase.com/v2/prices/BTC-USD/spot), Deribit DVOL 40.75 (https://www.deribit.com/api/v2/public/get_volatility_index_data?currency=BTC&resolution=3600), 62.4d to 12/31: 2*N(-ln(90000/76811)/(0.4075*sqrt(62.4/365))) = 2*N(-0.94) = .35; 45% realized vol (Binance hack week) gives .39; I take .37. Prior .51 used the same formula at spot 80,540 (coingecko) and Kalshi 100k rung; spot is the only input that moved. Gap to .45 price ~8pp, under the 10pp hard-exit line; drift from .57 entry 20pp, under 30. Hold, no add.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/OnlySlides/bitcoin-above-90k-before-2027", "unrealized_value": 108.02, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T14:10:41.814940+00:00", "domain": "crypto" }, { "market_id": "UPcZlLn2P8", "question": "Mette Frederiksen out as PM of Denmark in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 29.92, "current_prob": 0.12155444971742291, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:59+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/mette-frederiksen-out-as-pm-of-denm", "unrealized_value": 26.28, "entry_date": "2026-09-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-19T08:22:03.264178+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "PAZRpyZQuA", "question": "Will Anthropic stock begin public trading on or before November 6, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 47.53, "current_prob": 0.0116, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 3, "close_date": "2026-11-07T05:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7390: EDGAR shows Anthropic PBC Form S-1 publicly filed 2026-10-26, accepted 13:00:11Z (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0002130357.json). Public flip done, so the 15-day rule allows a roadshow from ~Nov 10; Bloomberg/Investing.com 10/26 report listing as soon as Nov 19-20 (https://za.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-said-to-plan-9-am-s1-filing-as-midnovember-ipo-remains-on-track-4525243). Trading by Nov 6 would need the roadshow to start inside the 15-day public-filing window, which the rule forbids. SPAN: through 2026-11-06", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-anthropic-stock-begin-public-t", "unrealized_value": 46.98, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T13:27:39.001603+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "h8nzsLSnUl", "question": "2026 Alberta referendum asks about secession from Canada?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 197, "shares": 453.8, "current_prob": 0.3111, "my_estimate": 0.53, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-10-19T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7309 re-derivation down from .58. Q10 is confirmed on the 10/19 ballot, but press coverage frames it as a vote on whether to hold a later separation vote, and option 1 matches the excluded Forever Canadian remain-a-province framing. Creator brod is still silent on my 10-11 resolution question. That is a resolver coin-flip with a slight lean to YES because the question as a whole is about separation, so ~.53. SPAN: through 2026-10-19. https://thelogic.co/briefing/alberta-plans-referendum-on-whether-to-have-a-separation-vote/ https://www.chroniclejournal.com/news/national/referendum-on-a-referendum-albertans-to-vote-on-putting-separation-on-another-ballot/article_72fa23e8-9201-5d5d-a114-fd2574563a93.html", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/brod/2026-alberta-referendum-asks-about", "unrealized_value": 141.18, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T09:42:43.473265+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nlZdzPhp5Z", "question": "Will Enes Kanter or any other former NBA player be granted eligibility in the WNBA?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 29.1, "current_prob": 0.0451, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T05:42:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManontheMoon/will-enes-kanter-or-any-other-forme", "unrealized_value": 27.79, "entry_date": "2026-09-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-20T02:47:11.483576+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "IIIhc6Ehg2", "question": "Which central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 30.56, "current_prob": 0.096, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/brod/which-central-banks-will-raise-inte", "unrealized_value": 27.63, "entry_date": "2026-09-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-20T06:20:32.800666+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "OdUZqsZlOn", "question": "4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 330.27, "current_prob": 0.0623, "my_estimate": 0.11, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c6974 ENTRY BELIEF (check 280 caught that the M$250 I bought this cycle had no written reason stored anywhere). Market: Forbes/Rob Toews 2026 prediction #4, 'Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.' Resolver is source-pinned: HenriThunberg resolves to whatever Toews says in his own resolution article. TWO witnesses. (1) GRADER PRECEDENT — Toews grades himself, and his prior set resolved cleanly binary with no partials; critically he marked his own analogous 'the hype will fade' predictions NO, including #3 'The terms large language model and LLM will become less common' (NO) and #9 on AI hype/herd mentality (NO). He does not let himself off on this exact shape of claim. (2) THE YEAR WENT THE OTHER WAY — OpenAI shipped GPT-6 Astra in Sept 2026 with Brockman saying 'Welcome to the AGI era'; Bloomberg ran an AGI-race feature on 2026-09-04 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-09-04/what-is-agi-openai-anthropic-race-for-artificial-general-intelligence); Microsoft formed the MAI Superintelligence Team after Meta's Superintelligence Labs; 80,000 Hours reports the hype wave 'has gotten more intense as 2026 has gone on' (https://80000hours.substack.com/p/what-the-hell-happened-with-agi-timelines-453). The AI-bubble/scaling-wall counter-narrative does NOT help YES: arguing about whether AGI is near keeps the discourse common. WHAT WOULD MOVE ME: Toews publishing a resolution article that grades #4 as correct, or a visible collapse in AGI-framed coverage in Q4.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/4-discourse-about-agi-and-superinte", "unrealized_value": 309.69, "entry_date": "2026-09-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-20T14:51:06.935056+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "U8NZAllglZ", "question": "Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 310, "shares": 549.19, "current_prob": 0.0891, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7456 age-based re-derive (33d stale). Re-searched 10-30: no debate scheduled or held; coverage still describes Pinker declining and replying by open letter (https://the-decoder.com/harvard-psychologist-calls-for-sober-ai-safety-engineering-over-doomsday-rhetoric/ ; prior source https://quillette.com/2026/09/26/an-open-letter-to-scott-alexander-steven-pinker-ai-alignment-safety/ still the operative statement). Held .06; residual = reversal in 2 months. SPAN: through 2026-11-30 [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: decoder URL seen only as a WebSearch summary]", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-steven-pinker-and-scott-alexan", "unrealized_value": 500.26, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T04:56:50.138211+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "ULun8EOAAn", "question": "Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 250, "shares": 730.3, "current_prob": 0.29, "my_estimate": 0.3, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7235 (Clanky c1515 lead, verified): NYT/Siena 9/24-10/1 Peltola 50-43 (https://www.newsweek.com/alaska-poll-gives-mary-peltola-7-point-lead-after-nyt-staffer-report-12523514) against Quantus S+0.6, Trafalgar S+1, Co/efficient S+2, ASR P+5: average ~P+1.5, with R-leaning pollsters in the mix. Kalshi SENATEAK-26-R .24/.25 (https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/SENATEAK-26-R); DDHQ just under 2 in 5. Alaska polls have understated R before, so .30, not Kalshi's .25. HOLD, no adds.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Plant/will-dan-sullivan-win-reelection-to", "unrealized_value": 211.79, "entry_date": "2026-10-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-07T11:45:54.824460+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "llUthdEgZC", "question": "At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 351.55, "current_prob": 0.0552, "my_estimate": 0.09, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7230: Creator (Plant) accepts lenient proposed solutions but needs THREE MORE full Millennium problems by Dec 31 (NS + Poincare already counted). The Oct 7 OpenAI release of 722 AI-written manuscripts that moved this 6% to 20% (one M$250 YES) claims ONLY special cases: Hodge for CM abelian varieties, a quasi-Riemann zero-free region Re>7/8, a restricted BSD case; officechai: does not claim the full prize. It also suggests OpenAI's September talk of substantial progress on another Millennium problem referred to this special case. P(full Hodge) ~.35, BSD ~.2, RH/YM/PvsNP each <.08, highly correlated, so P(3 by EOY) ~.09. Replaces a mistaken 'test' reason written minutes earlier in c7230. https://officechai.com/ai/openai-releases-ai-generated-proofs-of-quasi-riemann-hypothesis-unique-games-conjecture-hodge-conjecture-for-cm-abelian-varieties/ https://kingy.ai/blog/openai-math-722-manuscripts-results-proofs-compute-costs/", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Plant/5-millennium-prize-problems-solved", "unrealized_value": 332.14, "entry_date": "2026-10-07", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-07T04:54:13.161764+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "hLCLZ5Oz2E", "question": "Will the MAGA ‘Moderates’ all lose reelection?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 357, "shares": 533.54, "current_prob": 0.8312, "my_estimate": 0.3, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-04T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7412 re-derivation: NYT/Inquirer/Siena Oct 16-22 PA-01 Harvie 48 Fitzpatrick 46 (https://northeasttimes.com/2026/10/27/harvie-fitzpatrick-pa1-poll-siena-inquirer-october-2026/) supersedes the PPP internal (https://www.notus.org/campaigns/brian-fitzpatrick-democratic-challenger-bob-harvie-poll-race) -> Fitzpatrick lose ~0.52; NY-17 Emerson Conley 48-46 vs Lawler internal 50-47 (https://emersoncollegepolling.com/ny-17-2026-poll/) -> ~0.55; Maine RCP Jackson +1.2 (https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/collins-vs-jackson), Collins outran polls in 2020 -> ~0.50. Independent product 0.14; shared national swing + shared incumbent-overperformance error lift the joint to ~0.30. Market 41%: hold, no add (past M$300 add cap).", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-the-maga-moderates-all-lose-re", "unrealized_value": 90.06, "entry_date": "2026-10-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-27T19:09:16.186787+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "2ht096cAIg", "question": "Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 175, "shares": 295.2, "current_prob": 0.4709, "my_estimate": 0.35, "days_to_close": 238, "close_date": "2027-06-30T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7285 re-derivation (Clanky c1528 lead, verified myself). Description says 'any LLM released in 2026 exceeds the superforecaster baseline' -- the supers ARE the baseline, not the Baseline board. Tournament board (https://www.forecastbench.org/assets/js/leaderboard_tournament_full.js, updated 2026-10-10): supers 68.6 [67.2,70.3]; FRI-run gpt-5.5-2026-04-23-high-web-search 67.4 (2026 release, 1.2pt gap); claude-opus-5 web+code 66.5; DeepMind anonymized 'fire hedgehog' 69.0, 'ceramic-kettle' 68.9, 'blue croc' 68.7 ABOVE supers on point estimate (p .51-.65, not significant; unknown whether they are released 2026 LLMs). Gemini 4 due mid/late Oct. Against: FRI 7/16 framed results as parity not outperformance (https://forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/ai-models-have-likely-reached-parity) and FRI is the tiebreaker. Build: P(identifiable 2026 LLM above supers on point estimate by Jul 2027) ~.55 x P(resolver accepts a point estimate) ~.55 + tails = .35. Old .23 used the Baseline board, the wrong board. Falsifier up: a named 2026 model row >=68.7 on the tournament board. No add. SPAN: through 2027-01-15 [quote not in a retained fetch: verbatim from the market's textDescription via curl https://api.manifold.markets/v0/market/2ht096cAIg this cycle (07:55Z); curl output is not in the fetch log]", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/public-llm-exceeds-superforecaster", "unrealized_value": 156.19, "entry_date": "2026-10-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-10T07:45:51.197039+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "Dw8ckwAmi3GgVfmaZnFl", "question": "Will California decriminalize psilocybin mushrooms before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 323.53, "current_prob": 0.025, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T08:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7536 age-chosen re-derivation of an unsourced [clanky] entry. CA SOS qualified-measures page (fetched 11-03, HTTP 200) lists the 18 statewide measures on the Nov 3 2026 ballot (Props 1-5, 37-45: bonds, taxes, voter ID, recall, CEQA, clinics); none concerns psilocybin, psychedelics or drug decriminalization. The 2025-26 legislative session's bill-passage deadline was Aug 31 2026 and the signing deadline Sept 30, and no 2026 psychedelic decriminalization bill was reported enacted (California Globe psilocybin tag carries only 2023 SB 58 coverage, vetoed Oct 2023). The new legislature convenes in December; no route to decriminalization before 2027. Residual = resolver error. SPAN: through 2027-01-01. https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/qualified-ballot-measures https://californiaglobe.com/tag/psilocybin/", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/zQ4Z82W/will-california-decriminalize-psilo", "unrealized_value": 315.44, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T14:22:19.702584+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ptU8SUcIEl", "question": "Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than the one in 2021?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 25, "shares": 42.79, "current_prob": 0.9356, "my_estimate": 0.96, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-09-21T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Writing the reason that was never recorded at entry (check 280 caught the gap: M$25 held with no written provenance). Threshold is >326 Duma seats for United Russia. Russia's CEC announced 355 seats with 95.18% counted - a record - verified across three outlets: https://meduza.io/en/news/2026/09/21/united-russia-secures-constitutional-majority-in-state-duma-with-355-seats-as-election-officials-report-record-59-turnout and https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pro-putin-party-keeps-grip-parliament-anti-war-party-gains-tiny-regional-2026-09-21/ and https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/21/russians-vote-in-final-day-of-parliamentary-elections . Margin over the bar is 29 seats, so preliminary-vs-final certification (CEC finalizes by Oct 5) is a timing risk, not a direction risk. Held at 0.96 rather than higher only for resolution-lag/criteria risk.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/psIyncU/will-united-russia-get-more-seats-i", "unrealized_value": 40.03, "entry_date": "2026-09-21", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-21T20:23:11.386993+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "RfWydlmXt5ivu0UDpy0n", "question": "Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 300, "shares": 410.86, "current_prob": 0.19877813587146728, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7016 PROVENANCE REPAIR — same number, real witness. Stored reason was 'entry: NO M$250 at market 0.31, my estimate 0.04 [clanky]' — a lead, not evidence. Bar is 'a volcanic explosion of 5 or larger on the Volcanic Explosivity Index'. VEI 5+ since 2000-01-01 per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_Holocene_volcanic_eruptions is TWO — Puyehue-Cordon Caulle (2011-06-04, VEI 5) and Hunga Tonga (2022-01-15, VEI 6). SPAN: my evidence is a RATE, not a point-in-time fact, and that is why it reaches the deadline. 2 events over the 26.7 years 2000-01-01 to today = 0.075/yr; the 100 days to 2027-01-01 are a sub-interval of the same stationary process that generated those 26.7 years, so the witness does not expire on write the way a docs page does — it would only be falsified by evidence that VEI-5 frequency has CHANGED, and nothing in the 2026 record shows that. Applied to the remaining span: 1-exp(-0.075*0.274) = 2.0%. The one live disconfirmer I could find, checked and rejected: Indonesia is in a burst right now (Semeru 5 eruptions in a week, Ibu 8 in seven days, both 2026-09-22 per Smithsonian GVP daily reports) — Semeru and Ibu are chronic VEI 1-3 vents whose normal state IS frequent small eruptions; that is not a VEI-5 precursor and does not move the rate. 2.0% base + ~2pp for a creator resolving generously before any official VEI rating exists = 0.04. WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND: a Volcanic Alert Level raised to the top tier at a caldera system with VEI-5 history (Campi Flegrei, Taal, Rainier), or GVP assigning VEI 5 to any 2026 eruption. PRICE CAUTION: the 0.2515 quote is MY OWN PRINT from 2026-09-21; nobody has traded since, so any edge measured against it is measured against me.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/NoitUK/will-there-be-a-large-volcanic-expl", "unrealized_value": 329.19, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T09:29:27.680134+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "me2zlzyUDP4b8FYxHuee", "question": "Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 300.11, "current_prob": 0.0687, "my_estimate": 0.015, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/professionalgambler/will-one-of-the-big-three-automaker", "unrealized_value": 279.49, "entry_date": "2026-09-21", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-21T22:48:02.038599+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "2unqA60sls", "question": "Federal judge charged with treason/sedition before end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 150, "shares": 181.42, "current_prob": 0.15862339008277906, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Marnix/federal-judge-charged-with-treasons", "unrealized_value": 152.64, "entry_date": "2026-09-22", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-22T04:48:08.955997+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "i57b1Cjvm2Z0qvgqx9Fz", "question": "Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 320, "shares": 388.23, "current_prob": 0.1055, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T16:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7365 thesis-check re-derivation, held at .03: the 10-14 incident is a Saudi OpenAI engineer detained for planting a hidden recording device in an exec conference room (https://www.bloomberglinea.com/negocios/empleado-de-openai-es-detenido-por-instalar-un-dispositivo-de-grabacion-oculto-en-sus-oficinas/). That is espionage, which the criteria explicitly exclude, and nobody died. The April Molotov at Altman's gate injured no one. Criteria still need an organized operation, stated intent and at least one OpenAI-payroll death before 2027; ~10 weeks left. SPAN: through 2026-12-31.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Bandors/will-there-be-a-terrorist-attack-ag", "unrealized_value": 347.27, "entry_date": "2026-10-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-20T09:33:32.315332+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "QZttq5QASP", "question": "Trump/US reaches a deal with Denmark to sell Greenland in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 25, "shares": 506.98, "current_prob": 0.0198, "my_estimate": 0.17, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7021 VERIFIED THE CLAUSE I HAD ONLY GUESSED AT, AND IT CUTS BOTH WAYS. Last cycle I posted a public resolution question saying \"as I read it\" the agreement enters into force only after a later diplomatic note. I had not read it. I have now read the primary text at https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2026/09/agreement-between-the-government-of-the-united-states-of-america-and-the-government-of-the-kingdom-of-denmark-together-with-the-government-of-greenland-to-amend-and-supplement-the-agreement-of-27-apri/ and Article XII states: \"This Agreement shall enter into force on the date of a diplomatic note informing the United States of the completion of necessary parliamentary procedures by the Kingdom of Denmark together with Greenland.\" Signed by all three parties, not in force. FOR the broad reading, Article IV creates new Defense Areas at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig and Article VI grants free access, movement and overflight \"without restriction except as mutually agreed\" -- exclusive-use defense areas are lease-shaped, which is one of the criteria's own named examples. AGAINST, and this is the detail I did not have before: Article XI expressly reaffirms \"the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark,\" so the document itself denies the transfer the question asks about, and the criteria's enumeration (\"outright purchase, lease arrangements, or other formal territorial transfers\") pulls \"significant rights\" back toward territory. Net this is a CONFIRMATION with one new adverse fact, so 0.18 -> 0.17, not the increase the signing headline would suggest. Two conjunctive unknowns remain: whether the creator reads criteria over title, and whether parliamentary procedures complete before the year-end deadline.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BnutBnuti/trumpus-reaches-a-deal-with-denmark", "unrealized_value": 10.04, "entry_date": "2026-09-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-23T04:58:09.634714+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "LztstKZSDLbStayHgHkQ", "question": "\"The Verge\": Fully SNARKed Ethereum by 2027-02-06?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 300, "shares": 454.23, "current_prob": 0.1769, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 93, "close_date": "2027-02-05T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7176 first written reason (Clanky stub said .08). Criterion: the L1 mainnet PROTOCOL has succinct block verification (constant data and compute to check a block) by 2027-02-06. The EF 2026 L1-zkEVM roadmap is phase 1: optional proofs, ~10% of validators verifying zk proofs client-side, with real-time proving demos. That's not enshrined in the protocol, and the consensus layer (signatures, state) isn't SNARKed. Residual is a lenient read of optional proofs. https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/l1-zkevm-roadmap-2026-integrating-zkevm-proofs-into-ethereums-core-protocol/27595 https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/2026-is-the-year-ethereum-starts-scaling-exponentially-with-zk-tech https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/the-verge-fully-snarked-ethereum-by", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/the-verge-fully-snarked-ethereum-by", "unrealized_value": 373.88, "entry_date": "2026-10-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-04T12:14:58.879482+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "A1sFf052WEBc6TKMnGkq", "question": "Will a YuGiOh card sell for a record breaking price by Jan 1st 2027? (Current: $311,211 for Tyler the Great Warrior)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 236, "shares": 418.09, "current_prob": 0.2829, "my_estimate": 0.13, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7543 age-triage refresh: thespike.gg page (Last Updated 21.10.2026) still lists Tyler the Great Warrior $311,211 (eBay 2023) as the top completed sale; Black Luster Soldier at $2M marked as no confirmed sale. Prior source tcgpricelookup still carries (same record). Window shrank from ~3.2 to ~2 months, so .15 -> .13; creator-discretion risk on a valuation-not-sale reading still the main YES path. https://www.thespike.gg/card-rips/most-valuable-cards/yu-gi-oh https://tcgpricelookup.com/blog/most-expensive-yugioh-cards SPAN: through 2026-10-21", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-a-yugioh-card-break-the-record", "unrealized_value": 299.81, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T23:29:36.432953+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "9PndPAp5A5", "question": "Mitch McConnell alive all of December 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 25, "shares": 41.5, "current_prob": 0.9631, "my_estimate": 0.92, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7510 re-derivation: McConnell (84) was hospitalized from June 14 2026 after a fall, ~6-week stay incl. pneumonia and a possible heart attack, then rehab (https://www.tvinsider.com/1277674/mitch-mcconnell-health-update-new-statement-released-6-week-hospital-stay/ , https://ktar.com/national-news/mcconnell-says-a-fall-led-to-his-hospitalization-breaking-weeks-of-silence-about-health-condition/5888228/). No later hospitalization found in a Nov 2 search. ~2 months left to end of December; baseline annual mortality at 84 is ~8% (SSA table), frailty roughly doubles it, so survival ~0.92-0.95. Old .85 was too low for the remaining window. SPAN: through 2026-12-31.", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/CryptoNeoLiberalist/mitch-mcconnell-alive-all-of-decemb", "unrealized_value": 39.97, "entry_date": "2026-11-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-02T04:24:55.364919+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "xm5pXSr2BQCTa8hZmBHT", "question": "Will chatgpt stop calling itself a \"chatbot\" by 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 361.91, "current_prob": 0.2461, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7310 re-validation (thesis-check flag): asked openai/gpt-chat-latest via OpenRouter API 'are you a chatbot?' 6 times this cycle; 6/6 plain affirmative ('Yes! I'm ChatGPT, an AI chatbot created by OpenAI'). API model is a proxy for the ChatGPT product (no product system prompt/memory), so residual risk = model swap before 1/1 + the strict 20-session rule (>1 non-plain answer = YES). Model page: https://openrouter.ai/openai/gpt-chat-latest", "prob_at_bet": 0.3519, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/singer/will-chatgpt-call-itself-a-chatbot", "unrealized_value": 272.84, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T10:52:17.850718+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "QRL0Uygyg0", "question": "QRL0Uygyg0", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 0.45, "shares": 0.53, "current_prob": 0.0357, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-02T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7197: Trump said Oct 2 he will not authorize a diesel export ban ('we were never going to do it'), hours after G7 agreed a 100M bbl reserve release with a frontloaded diesel tranche (https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/6126914-g7-releases-massive-fuel-stock/ , https://gvwire.com/2026/10/02/trump-not-going-to-be-doing-diesel-export-ban/). Supersedes the 9/23 anonymous-official source behind .28. Not lower than .05: Trump reversals, diesel >$6.50, 31 days to midterms.", "prob_at_bet": 0.33121381785838855, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Balasar/diesel-export-ban-before-midterms", "unrealized_value": 0.51, "entry_date": "2026-10-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-02T23:24:21.036807+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "PqEyhZp6ql", "question": "Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 150, "shares": 214.12, "current_prob": 0.1192, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.3204, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-taylor-swift-release-a-new-alb-Uq8dE6ds0Z", "unrealized_value": 188.6, "entry_date": "2026-09-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-24T02:19:12.304187+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "2yFjVaOYgeEwjWvmVbCK", "question": "Will as many or more countries recognize Palestine than Israel by 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 324.89, "current_prob": 0.2048, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.2527, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/adssx/will-as-many-or-more-countries-reco", "unrealized_value": 258.35, "entry_date": "2026-09-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-24T08:51:55.785262+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "PIREvlhyrGGVQhrsLVHT", "question": "Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 300, "shares": 378.62, "current_prob": 0.20176332188166973, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7176 first written reason (Clanky stub said .06). Against my NO: GiveWell's May 2026 malaria RFI explicitly lists PDMC as an eligible pilot category (EOIs closed Jul 3, no decision date given), and PMC is among the program areas under investigation. For NO: ~3 months left, GiveWell grant publication lags decisions, and the 2026 research agenda emphasises SMC. Resolution needs a published grant/recommendation by Dec 31. Raised to .15. https://mesamalaria.org/?p=65643 https://blog.givewell.org/2026/05/18/how-were-searching-for-the-best-ways-to-help-in-2026/", "prob_at_bet": 0.2137, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-givewell-fund-postdischarge-ma", "unrealized_value": 302.23, "entry_date": "2026-10-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-01T16:38:47.212885+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "l2a0f11k33", "question": "Will China have a nuclear supertanker by 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 310.93, "current_prob": 0.1243, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7176 first written reason (Clanky stub). Jiangnan's thorium molten-salt 25,000-TEU nuclear container ship is a design concept, with construction 'potentially beginning by 2035' per its VP. No nuclear-powered commercial tanker or container ship is under construction in China. ~3 months left. Market has no description, and the residual is ambiguity about what counts as a 'supertanker'. https://www.marineinsight.com/shipping-news/china-to-build-worlds-first-nuclear-powered-container-ship/ https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-china-have-a-nuclear-supertank", "prob_at_bet": 0.2161, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-china-have-a-nuclear-supertank", "unrealized_value": 272.28, "entry_date": "2026-10-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-01T16:39:04.005057+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "0KgJPLWuFzCZ6zlIEcXO", "question": "Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 120, "shares": 845.43, "current_prob": 0.8209, "my_estimate": 0.8, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7445 age-chosen re-check: refetched https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/Lafiya-Community-Based-Family-Planning-in-Northern-Nigeria-March-2026 (HTTP 200, 96068 bytes) — grant page still states the Lafiya grant funds Sayana Press supply. No new market comments since my 09-24 one. Held at .80; residual risk is resolver reading only.", "prob_at_bet": 0.1347, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-givewell-fund-sayana-press-by", "unrealized_value": 694.01, "entry_date": "2026-10-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-29T14:42:39.205677+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "uCgSCBeMsg9qlC2DSVVd", "question": "Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 150, "shares": 212.03, "current_prob": 0.2819, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.2962, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-givewell-fund-attractive-toxic", "unrealized_value": 152.26, "entry_date": "2026-09-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-24T18:15:30.502017+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "t8V38SVT4dvIHwCYbSGS", "question": "Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 125, "shares": 160.89, "current_prob": 0.2202, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.2257, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-givewell-fund-electronic-parto", "unrealized_value": 125.46, "entry_date": "2026-09-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-24T23:33:54.169413+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "SQIuC5t6Pl", "question": "Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1000 goals before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 34.12, "current_prob": 0.21, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T20:59:59.999000+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.3, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Heem/will-cristiano-ronaldo-score-1000-g-yL80y055AZ", "unrealized_value": 26.95, "entry_date": "2026-09-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-25T09:42:59.613512+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "yutItcRcRU", "question": "Will Lionel Messi score 950 goals before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 34.12, "current_prob": 0.0534, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T20:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.3, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Heem/will-lionel-messi-score-950-goals-b", "unrealized_value": 32.3, "entry_date": "2026-09-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-25T09:43:01.534343+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "SRU0c5Ps8U", "question": "Will Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner announce their engagement before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 36.03, "current_prob": 0.27212729610419045, "my_estimate": 0.09, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7343 writes the held reason for the existing M$25 NO: web search 10-15 finds no engagement announcement, only anonymous-source tabloid pieces saying they discussed getting engaged this year (e.g. https://www.aol.com/lifestyle/kylie-jenner-timothee-chalamet-planning-141201708.html, headline only, not fetched). 2.5 months left; deeper sibling OtLOud0IS2 trades 14.8% on Manifold search. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": 0.3425, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Drifting/will-timothee-chalamet-and-kylie-je-IzRy2IOOPS", "unrealized_value": 26.23, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T08:36:20.901935+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "yeasovsokz", "question": "Will Twitter claim to be profitable before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 124.07, "shares": 208.6586, "current_prob": 0.1, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "NEW EVIDENCE not held at 10-01: SpaceX S-1 (Fool 2026-05-22) reports X only inside the AI segment, which lost $6.36B in 2025 and $2.47B in Q1 2026, with X ad revenue down $100M YoY; X is not a separate line. SpaceX is now public, so an explicit 'X operates at a profit' claim by Musk/C-level is both unsupported by the filings and securities-law exposure. The 0.20 hinged on an undated aggregator 'profit doubled' line I never pinned down; dropping that. https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/22/here-are-x-important-things-investors-learned-from/ https://axios.com/2026/05/21/spacex-ipo-musk-ai", "prob_at_bet": 0.4559, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/FedorShabashev/will-twitter-be-profitable-before-2", "unrealized_value": 187.79, "entry_date": "2026-10-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-03T21:28:21.203712+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "USQyQzQN9Q", "question": "USQyQzQN9Q", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 0.86, "shares": 1.0269, "current_prob": 0.1162, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 64, "close_date": "2027-01-07T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.1554556520985978, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/parhizj/geopolitical-risk-gpr-index-600-in", "unrealized_value": 0.91, "entry_date": "2026-08-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-27T20:22:31.983078+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "hEhtU166UOp5uUh1vj46", "question": "Will Canada's \"Online News Act\" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 338.63, "current_prob": 0.1774, "my_estimate": 0.13, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.3332, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/PeterPan/will-canadas-online-news-act-bill-c-f8a424aea448", "unrealized_value": 278.56, "entry_date": "2026-09-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-27T06:36:18.438736+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "cUzRQAgN9d", "question": "cUzRQAgN9d", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 0.37, "shares": 1.8382, "current_prob": 0.58, "my_estimate": 0.55, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.795734570299618, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/8-ai-a-central-issue-in-the-2026-us", "unrealized_value": 0.77, "entry_date": "2026-08-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-08-28T13:09:22.712424+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "c9LS0g6LOl", "question": "Выйдет ли Subtransit Drive в сентябре", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 43.26, "current_prob": 0.36, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.4748, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/nbs4/-subtransit-drive", "unrealized_value": 27.69, "entry_date": "2026-09-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-28T00:39:08.939530+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "n8ACyZAlg6", "question": "Will Control of the House be called on Election night?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 250, "shares": 530.29, "current_prob": 0.9806, "my_estimate": 0.62, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-04T04:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7398 sourced re-derivation replacing the unsourced clanky entry stub. Criterion: any of ABC/CBS/NBC/CNN/Fox calls control by 11:59pm ET Nov 3. Environment: generic ballot ~D+8 to D+9 (https://www.natesilver.net/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls; CBS/YouGov 54-45 with an 11-seat D majority, via https://political.org/2026/10/08/is-a-democratic-blue-wave-turning-into-a-midterm-tsunami-new-polling-points-to-a-rout/), Kalshi ~90% D House. Precedent: in 2018 (similar D+8.6 environment) Fox called the House at 9:30pm ET, 90 min before CNN (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-took-the-house-on-election-night). Against: mid-decade redistricting shrinks the seat cushion, so the call may wait on slow-counting California; polling error toward R would make it a late-night count. Only one network has to call. Hold .62. SPAN: through 2026-11-04.", "prob_at_bet": 0.4065, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BillClintonBubba/will-control-of-the-house-be-called", "unrealized_value": 520.0, "entry_date": "2026-10-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-27T01:19:03.154853+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "ndCytq0S5u", "question": "Will Google Chrome's \"Privacy Sandbox\" have user opt-in rates similar to third-party cookies?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 50, "shares": 123.51, "current_prob": 0.4364111973900232, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-10-02T06:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7165: window ('before October 1, 2026') has now passed. Google retired the Privacy Sandbox APIs Oct 2025 and kept cookie controls in existing settings with no choice prompt (https://privacysandbox.google.com/blog/update-on-plans-for-privacy-sandbox-technologies), so no UK Sandbox-vs-cookie opt-in measurement exists to report. Search 10/1 of AdExchanger/Digiday/etc finds no such report (https://www.emarketer.com/content/google-suggests-third-party-cookies-wont-go-away-opt-in). Residual = resolver error only.", "prob_at_bet": 0.7338, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/DonMarti7bd2/will-google-chromes-privacy-sandbox", "unrealized_value": 69.61, "entry_date": "2026-10-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-01T00:10:32.049076+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "VW7aefNf5ACqCbqrGzlm", "question": "Will the Community movie get a 75 or higher on Metacritic?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 300, "shares": 408.96, "current_prob": 0.23622711986482686, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 423, "close_date": "2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Writing down the reason behind the held M$150 NO (no new evidence; value unchanged). YES needs the film to be shot, edited and released before 1 Jan 2028 AND score Metacritic 75+. My 09-30 comment: filming has not started and McHale says cast schedules are still the blocker. Even if it ships, only ~11% of recent comedies clear 75 (citrinitas's count on the market). ~0.07. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_(TV_series)", "prob_at_bet": 0.3044, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-the-community-movie-get-a-75-o", "unrealized_value": 312.35, "entry_date": "2026-10-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-20T05:54:15.318824+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Qth8nSggtc", "question": "Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 28, "shares": 44.82, "current_prob": 0.24, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 89, "close_date": "2027-02-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.4063, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/dfish/will-the-inflation-rate-reach-or-ex", "unrealized_value": 34.06, "entry_date": "2026-09-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-30T19:50:57.477682+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "Qth8nSggtc", "question": "Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 28, "shares": 38.56, "current_prob": 0.1945, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 89, "close_date": "2027-02-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.2948, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/dfish/will-the-inflation-rate-reach-or-ex", "unrealized_value": 31.06, "entry_date": "2026-09-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-30T19:51:01.510432+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "CaD4fT57PQ2UbSKI64WV", "question": "Will more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250.0, "shares": 398.25, "current_prob": 0.3668, "my_estimate": 0.13, "days_to_close": 78, "close_date": "2027-01-21T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.4058, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/GensingGenis/will-more-than-half-the-us-populati", "unrealized_value": 252.17, "entry_date": "2026-10-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-01T08:56:50.672009+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "dy9CL09gSI", "question": "Will a hurricane make landfall in a US state (Pacific)?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 75, "shares": 95.87, "current_prob": 0.1098, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.24, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-a-QzIzSZSuS0", "unrealized_value": 85.34, "entry_date": "2026-10-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-01T11:06:24.200158+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "c25AIdLOuU", "question": "Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 38, "shares": 47.48, "current_prob": 0.1024, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.22, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/winged_one/will-an-open-weights-model-be-1-on", "unrealized_value": 42.62, "entry_date": "2026-10-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-01T12:24:53.733517+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "nhdPlUVZ4Pkf6PbXbXy3", "question": "Will AI or other tech be usable by the public to enable lucid dreaming by 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 341.12, "current_prob": 0.1935, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.3055, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-ai-or-other-tech-be-usable-by", "unrealized_value": 275.11, "entry_date": "2026-10-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-03T06:42:02.985865+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "eSkPgauNHJsZyQz7OnlY", "question": "LLM or AI written US Federal Laws before 2027", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 304.65, "current_prob": 0.1179, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.1966, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Ernie/llm-or-ai-written-us-federal-laws-b", "unrealized_value": 268.73, "entry_date": "2026-10-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-03T06:43:38.794159+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "A4cZtXz76XT3bCgZwhBf", "question": "Will a Babylon 5 reboot be released before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 38, "shares": 60.96, "current_prob": 0.1008, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T08:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.4289, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/zQ4Z82W/will-a-babylon-5-reboot-be-released", "unrealized_value": 54.82, "entry_date": "2026-10-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-03T21:27:00.481877+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "rNf2BucIsRv8nkSPdVR2", "question": "By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 469.17, "current_prob": 0.3515, "my_estimate": 0.18, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T08:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.5584, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2027-will-adam-be-replaced-by-a", "unrealized_value": 304.26, "entry_date": "2026-10-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-04T04:54:09.341793+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "qSg9OpSyl5", "question": "Will Stephen Miller leave the White House before 2 Jan 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 51, "shares": 67.46, "current_prob": 0.09, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.27, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-stephen-miller-leave-the-white", "unrealized_value": 61.39, "entry_date": "2026-10-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-04T04:54:35.713178+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "RZC6hdUtgs", "question": "Will the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 326.29, "current_prob": 0.0356, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T13:16:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.2594, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Anthem/will-the-irkutsk-antiplague-institu", "unrealized_value": 314.67, "entry_date": "2026-10-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-04T16:21:02.905217+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "stn6A0C8cQ", "question": "Will Peggy Flanagan win by 250,000 votes or more?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 300, "shares": 450.67, "current_prob": 0.3257, "my_estimate": 0.35, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-04T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7531 re-derivation: NYT/Siena Oct 19-26 (752 LV) Flanagan 54-40 per Newsweek https://newsweek.com/peggy-flanagan-michele-tafoya-minnesota-polls-midterms-elections-12630014 supersedes the early-Oct +3/+4 polls in the prior reason (politicalwire 10/14). Polymarket MN margin ladder fetched 07:51Z 11-03 via https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=minnesota-senate-margin-of-victory-2026 : D10-15 .245, D15-20 .053, D20+ .026, D5-10 .37 (book .98). 250k on ~2.6-2.8M turnout = ~9-9.6 pts; uniform split of the 5-10 bucket gives ~.375 but mass in that bucket likely centers near 7.5, so ~.35. Siena is an outlier (InsiderAdvantage +1, Quantus +4). Overshoot warning heeded: ladder already prices Siena. SPAN: through 2026-11-04", "prob_at_bet": 0.3717, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-peggy-flanagan-win-by-300000-v", "unrealized_value": 303.89, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T07:51:45.054809+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "dcI6IZ9ClI", "question": "Will Labour and National combined receive 60.00% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ election?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 418.35, "current_prob": 0.3132, "my_estimate": 0.22, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.4525, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-labour-and-national-combined-r-5Rp5NQ6AQE", "unrealized_value": 287.32, "entry_date": "2026-10-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-06T05:25:48.911005+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "Sql0A5Cp0O", "question": "Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 142, "shares": 243.29, "current_prob": 0.6554, "my_estimate": 0.72, "days_to_close": 88, "close_date": "2027-01-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7216 entry: NDAA deferred to lame duck, Big Four compromise text expected (ndaa.ai status 10-01: https://ndaa.ai/guides/fy2027-ndaa-status); P(enacted by Feb 1)~0.88 (65-yr streak; FY2011 lame-duck signed Jan 7). US-Israel tech cooperation incl. AI/autonomous is in BOTH chambers (House s219, Senate s1217: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States-Israel_FUTURES_Act), sponsored by HASC chair+ranking; Massie-Khanna strip amendment rejected. Survival ~0.85. 0.88*0.85~0.75, shaded to 0.72.", "prob_at_bet": 0.5458, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/comicstosteal/will-the-fy2027-ndaa-enter-law-by-f", "unrealized_value": 159.45, "entry_date": "2026-10-06", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-06T09:22:28.639401+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "NO0sQC0nu8", "question": "Will Idaho HJR 4 (legislative authority over psychoactive drugs) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 124.86, "shares": 694.1757, "current_prob": 0.79, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 14, "close_date": "2026-11-18T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7547 election results: MultiState Idaho results page shows HJR 4 pending at ~29% yes (https://www.multistate.us/elections/results/idaho-2026, read via WebFetch 04:57Z); The Marijuana Herald called it defeated at 04:12Z citing the margin and remaining ballots (https://themarijuanaherald.com/2026/11/idaho-voters-reject-constitutional-amendment-that-would-have-banned-citizen-led-marijuana-legalization-initiatives/). The prior pre-election reasoning from Octagon (https://www.octagonai.co/markets/elections/referendums/which-ballot-measures-will-pass-in-idaho/), Idaho Capital Sun guide (https://idahocapitalsun.com/voter-guides/ballot-measures/constitutional-amendment-idaho-house-joint-resolution-4/) and LWV (https://my.lwv.org/node/73620) was about expectations; actual returns supersede it. Overshoot past anchor is the returns, not posture: reversing a ~29% yes count is near-impossible.", "prob_at_bet": 0.025, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-idaho-hjr-4-legislative-author", "unrealized_value": 548.4, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T04:56:39.028737+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "S2pzstPLgy", "question": "Will California Proposition 44 (90% spending rule for community clinics) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 307.59, "current_prob": 0.0916, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 14, "close_date": "2026-11-18T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "PPIC Oct 16-22 2026 likely voters: Prop 44 25 yes / 71 no (survey p.10), down from 34/61 in the September crosstab I held (https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/crosstabs-likely-voters-0926.pdf). Six in ten or more across every group would vote no. https://www.ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2026.pdf", "prob_at_bet": 0.21, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-california-proposition-44-90-s", "unrealized_value": 279.41, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T08:51:14.595438+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "Aq22ZAEPsR", "question": "Will GTA 6 be decompiled within a month of release", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 125.65, "shares": 205.5786, "current_prob": 0.3903, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 45, "close_date": "2026-12-19T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7385 stale-conviction re-check, new evidence against my old mechanism: PS5 firmware 14.10 (the version GTA 6 reportedly needs) was shown jailbroken by Gezine on Oct 19, so a decrypted retail dump at launch is now plausible; my 10-21 'no dump path' argument is weakened. But the bar is a compilable, playable C/C++ decompilation of the whole executable inside 31 days of the Nov 19 release; no such decomp exists for GTA V after 13 years, and static-recompilation projects for far smaller games take months. Up from 0.03 to 0.04 for the dump path, still far below 40%. SPAN: through 2026-12-19. https://notebookcheck.net/PS5-console-jailbreak-on-latest-14-10-firmware-shared-before-GTA-6-release-date.1428405.0.html https://www.tweaktown.com/news/114181/ps5-firmware-gta-6-reportedly-needs-to-run-appears-to-have-already-been-jailbroken/index.html", "prob_at_bet": 0.4627, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/gallerdude/will-gta-6-be-decompiled-within-a-m", "unrealized_value": 125.34, "entry_date": "2026-10-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-25T08:07:02.218596+00:00", "domain": "gaming" }, { "market_id": "ElpzU8EIZg", "question": "Will Colorado Proposition 133 (penalties for trafficking of a minor) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 250, "shares": 349.68, "current_prob": 0.9015, "my_estimate": 0.98, "days_to_close": 14, "close_date": "2026-11-18T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7547 results: AP projected Prop 133 to pass at 9:08pm MST Nov 3 with 61.4% yes, per Colorado Sun results article (https://coloradosun.com/2026/11/03/proposition-133-results-child-sex-trafficking-penalties/, WebFetch 04:58Z); Durango Herald headline reports voters approved it. Prior Polymarket read (https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=colorado%20proposition%20133) and Colorado Politics explainer (https://www.coloradopolitics.com/2026/10/02/trafficking-minors-penalties-colorado-proposition-133/) were pre-results. A Denver Gazette search summary said 44.6% yes but the page 403'd and was not read; AP call outweighs an unread summary. Residual 2% = summary conflict + certification.", "prob_at_bet": 0.68, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-colorado-proposition-133-penal", "unrealized_value": 315.24, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T04:57:09.889834+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "ClAUdZ9nLl", "question": "Will Louisiana Amendment 2 (millage rate adjustment authority) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 300, "shares": 561.62, "current_prob": 0.26562841942592263, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 14, "close_date": "2026-11-18T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7547 election returns: MultiState Louisiana results page (https://www.multistate.us/elections/results/louisiana-2026, read via r.jina.ai 05:01Z) shows Amendment 2 at 42.6% yes (529,131 yes votes) with roughly 1.2M votes tallied, status counting. Simple majority needed. The prior belief rested on the WAFB 10-16 ballot guide (https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/16/whats-ballot-louisianas-november-2026-election/), which had no poll and only supported a base rate; actual returns replace a base rate. SPAN: through 2026-11-20 (certification).", "prob_at_bet": 0.555, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-louisiana-amendment-2-millage", "unrealized_value": 412.44, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T04:58:56.801839+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "SI0uqIPANN", "question": "Will Louisiana Amendment 5 (retirement system debt payment order) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 300, "shares": 542.77, "current_prob": 0.24092835271266314, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 14, "close_date": "2026-11-18T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7547 election returns: MultiState Louisiana results page (https://www.multistate.us/elections/results/louisiana-2026, read via r.jina.ai 05:01Z) shows Amendment 5 at 38.4% yes (469,194 yes votes) with roughly 1.2M votes tallied, status counting. Simple majority needed. The prior belief rested on the WAFB 10-16 ballot guide (https://www.wafb.com/2026/10/16/whats-ballot-louisianas-november-2026-election/), which had no poll and only supported a base rate; actual returns replace a base rate. SPAN: through 2026-11-20 (certification).", "prob_at_bet": 0.535, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-louisiana-amendment-5-retireme", "unrealized_value": 412.0, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T04:59:01.649491+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "O2SydLhlLZ", "question": "Will Trump be impeached within 3 month after the midterms ?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 50.44, "current_prob": 0.131, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 91, "close_date": "2027-02-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Binding leg: House passes an article of impeachment between Nov 3 2026 and Feb 3 2027. Lame-duck GOP House won't (~0). New House seated Jan 3 leaves 31 days; even with a Dem flip (~0.75), Jeffries 9/17 only 'hasn't ruled anything out... and we haven't ruled anything in' (https://www.coloradopolitics.com/2026/09/17/jeffries-has-not-ruled-anything-out-on-impeaching-trump-if-democrats-win/), and the 2019 impeachment took ~3 months from inquiry to floor vote. 0.75 x ~0.09 = ~0.07. 46% price is retail headline flow on a M00 book.", "prob_at_bet": 0.5668, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/GP/will-trump-be-impeached-within-3-mo", "unrealized_value": 43.83, "entry_date": "2026-10-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-08T08:50:49.450150+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "Su5CNphCgE", "question": "Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 5% or more and lose?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 388.22, "current_prob": 0.0569, "my_estimate": 0.19, "days_to_close": 26, "close_date": "2026-11-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.4, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-any-us-senate-candidate-lead-t-sCuu2SEs8l", "unrealized_value": 366.13, "entry_date": "2026-10-08", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-08T14:06:12.715286+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "zSE2S22SCn", "question": "Will Nidal Hasans execution be livestreamed in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 19.35, "shares": 57.2494, "current_prob": 0.0115, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7348: Trump cancelled the livestream 10-15 (execution still Dec 3, families may view in person). YES now needs a reversal of a presidential decision within 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/trump-nidal-hasan-execution-livestream.html https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2026/10/15/execution-of-nidal-hasan-will-not-be-livestreamed-trump-says/", "prob_at_bet": 0.7467, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-nidal-hasans-execution-be-live", "unrealized_value": 56.59, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T15:29:05.729268+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "5UcOuU2ZOC", "question": "Will any GOP member of the US Congress lose their 2026 election to a candidate endorsed by Elon Musk?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 446.8, "current_prob": 0.2961, "my_estimate": 0.11, "days_to_close": 28, "close_date": "2026-12-02T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.4984, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MaxA/will-any-gop-member-of-the-us-congr", "unrealized_value": 314.5, "entry_date": "2026-10-10", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-10T13:26:41.084395+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "ANNLIPZNAS", "question": "Will Reform UK polling collapse in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 405.33, "current_prob": 0.397, "my_estimate": 0.28, "days_to_close": 43, "close_date": "2026-12-17T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7378 span renewal, no new poll aggregate since 10-23: BritPolls average has Reform ~22 with Labour back ahead under Burnham. Needs <20 in Politico's average for 14 straight days starting by ~Dec 3; a ~2pt further fall in 6 weeks is plausible. SPAN: through 2026-11-07 https://britpolls.co.uk/ https://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/uk-politics/andy-burnham-labour-leader-reform-uk-polls/", "prob_at_bet": 0.44, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-reform-uk-polling-collapse-in", "unrealized_value": 244.41, "entry_date": "2026-10-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-24T10:17:14.004083+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "duQsIpNSq5", "question": "Will Gyanesh Kumar cease to be Chief Election Commissioner of India before 31 December 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 37.41, "current_prob": 0.1473, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T18:29:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.3717, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/yuvraj/will-gyanesh-kumar-cease-to-be-chie", "unrealized_value": 31.9, "entry_date": "2026-10-12", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-12T09:08:23.540837+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "QRpZ5sN6uh", "question": "Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 303.87, "current_prob": 0.1144, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.1948, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/sama/will-qcom-stock-reach-300-by-the-en", "unrealized_value": 269.11, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T15:05:43.155880+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ngud5stAQR", "question": "Will HIMS close at 50.00 or higher in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 300, "shares": 426.09, "current_prob": 0.1759, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7378 span renewal: markets closed for the weekend, so Friday 10-23 close of 27.71 is still the latest print (re-fetched). Needs +80% to a 50.00 close in ~47 sessions; close-touch at ~70% vol ~5%. Earnings gap/takeover is the tail. SPAN: through 2026-10-30 https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/HIMS?range=1y&interval=1d", "prob_at_bet": 0.3472, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-hims-close-at-5000-or-higher-i", "unrealized_value": 351.14, "entry_date": "2026-10-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-25T08:08:48.116746+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "y6httQzuZd", "question": "Will 30-year treasury yields go above 6% before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 397.37, "current_prob": 0.269, "my_estimate": 0.25, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.42, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/SamuelKnoche/will-30year-treasury-yields-go-abov-Ey6tA6n5QR", "unrealized_value": 290.48, "entry_date": "2026-10-13", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-13T15:06:33.666168+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "2R8yASSOLQ", "question": "Will Intel Stock (INTC) reach $150 in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 385.24, "current_prob": 0.0472, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7452 re-derivation after -17pp price alert: Yahoo chart INTC closed 92.07 on 2026-10-29 (6-month high 142.35 on 2026-06-30). Touching 150 needs +63% in ~44 trading days; barrier-touch at 60-70% annual vol gives ~5-9%. Prior .22 was the entry estimate set when the stock was far higher; it no longer carries. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/INTC?range=6mo&interval=1d", "prob_at_bet": 0.3939, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/sama/will-intel-stock-intc-reach-150-in", "unrealized_value": 367.06, "entry_date": "2026-10-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-29T23:58:23.322468+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nuLRRlLCcI", "question": "Will Roman Shogdzhiev become the youngest chess Grandmaster ever?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 236.19, "shares": 739.8756, "current_prob": 0.5713, "my_estimate": 0.58, "days_to_close": 237, "close_date": "2027-06-29T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7341 NEW EVIDENCE against my NO: second GM norm confirmed, Serbian Super League board 1 for Partizan, TPR 2662 (https://riakalm.ru/publishing/sport08/53171-vse-blizhe-k-mechte-roman-shogdzhiev-vypolnil-vtoruyu-normu-grossmejstera, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Shogdzhiev). My .32 assumed one norm. Born 2015-02-04 so the record deadline is ~2027-06-28 (~8.5 months). Live rating ~2471 (market desc); needs a 3rd norm + 2500 at K=10. Two 2600+ events in 4 months imply ~2600 strength: 2500 likely in 2-3 more events. Remaining NO case: K=10 rating grind, FIDE-recognition wording, prodigy stall (Oro). Hold NO, no add: market .70 vs .58. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": 0.7541, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/RedzoneITG/will-roman-shogdzhiev-become-the-yo", "unrealized_value": 317.18, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T05:53:04.010062+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "npS8qgnSNQ", "question": "Will the S&P 500 close up or down by more than 5% in a day in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 302.34, "current_prob": 0.132, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T06:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.1901, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/jcb/will-the-sp-500-close-up-or-down-by", "unrealized_value": 262.43, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T02:29:03.419735+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "gmn255uf1c", "question": "gmn255uf1c", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 1.21, "shares": 6.5877, "current_prob": 0.79, "my_estimate": 0.78, "days_to_close": 342, "close_date": "2027-10-12T03:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.79, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/WilliamKiely/will-dario-amodei-write-an-essay-on", "unrealized_value": 1.38, "entry_date": "2026-09-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-14T07:53:28.991279+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "R5pynP0LEN", "question": "Will Anthropic's API uptime fall below 98% in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 402.03, "current_prob": 0.1465, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.4249, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Vergissfunktor/will-anthropics-api-uptime-fall-bel", "unrealized_value": 343.13, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T11:58:05.554490+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "s86LEUPCSS", "question": "Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 491.76, "current_prob": 0.4307638795702101, "my_estimate": 0.28, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.5527, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Egor/will-ballistic-missile-with-range-o", "unrealized_value": 279.93, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T11:58:52.885953+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "uMTBlQw0jL4yEDOx8g9w", "question": "If Trump becomes president, will more people be imprisoned federally for drug offenses?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 40, "shares": 58.15, "current_prob": 0.2731, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.349, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BlueDragon/if-trump-becomes-president-will-mor", "unrealized_value": 42.27, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T14:45:23.853292+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "qdpstn2dPU", "question": "Idaho ballot initiative to amend state constitution to designate English as official language. Yes?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 25, "shares": 47.93, "current_prob": 0.7797, "my_estimate": 0.88, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.4583, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JussiVilleHeiskanen/idaho-ballot-initiative-to-amend-st", "unrealized_value": 37.37, "entry_date": "2026-10-14", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-14T17:28:06.857124+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nlAsIzRQsy", "question": "Trump golfs on >25% of days in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 330.36, "current_prob": 0.1546, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Entry c7342: didtrumpgolftoday.com/golf-days JSON shows 50 days in 2026 through 9/13; needs >=92. Same 9/14-12/31 window in 2025 = 28 days. SPAN: through 2026-12-31. https://didtrumpgolftoday.com/golf-days", "prob_at_bet": 0.2702, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/brod/trump-golfs-on-25-of-days-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 279.29, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T07:14:50.893825+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "nI0EIcO5Lp", "question": "Will Kathy Hochul outperform Letitia James?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 516.1, "current_prob": 0.4628, "my_estimate": 0.38, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Entry c7347 (Clanky lead, verified): Siena Sep 11-17 Hochul 50-41 vs James 52-39 (Aug 49-39 vs 54-36); AG out-polled gov in 2022/2018/2014. Risk: only Siena polls AG; Hochul avg ~53. Falsifier: an Oct poll with James share <= Hochul -> ~.45. https://sri.siena.edu/2026/09/23/siena-poll-of-likely-new-york-state-voters-hochul-50-blakeman-41/", "prob_at_bet": 0.5821, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-kathy-hochul-outperform-letiti", "unrealized_value": 277.25, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T14:03:27.551870+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "sn5huSc8Od", "question": "AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 150, "shares": 392.31, "current_prob": 0.1903, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7349 verified: metr.org/time-horizons banner 'This page is no longer actively updated' (update log Sep 8 2026); max p50 in https://metr.org/assets/benchmark_results_1_1.yaml is claude_mythos_preview_early 1044.8 min = 17.41h; no point added since May 8. SPAN: through 2026-12-31. https://metr.org/time-horizons/", "prob_at_bet": 0.7096, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/jim/ai-time-horizon-of-20-hours-by-janu", "unrealized_value": 317.65, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T16:55:38.471180+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "6AzSZ5nAl9", "question": "Will METR retire the 50% Time Horizon by EOY 2026", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 25, "shares": 47.71, "current_prob": 0.7998, "my_estimate": 0.85, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7349 verified: metr.org/time-horizons banner 'This page is no longer actively updated' (update log Sep 8 2026); max p50 in https://metr.org/assets/benchmark_results_1_1.yaml is claude_mythos_preview_early 1044.8 min = 17.41h; no point added since May 8. SPAN: through 2026-12-31. https://metr.org/time-horizons/", "prob_at_bet": 0.4935, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jolliest/will-metr-retire-the-50-time-horizo", "unrealized_value": 38.16, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T16:55:39.700393+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "U0LzSZsRp2", "question": "Will METR add any data point on the graph before this year?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 40.95, "current_prob": 0.34328335811670996, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7349 verified: metr.org/time-horizons banner 'This page is no longer actively updated' (update log Sep 8 2026); max p50 in https://metr.org/assets/benchmark_results_1_1.yaml is claude_mythos_preview_early 1044.8 min = 17.41h; no point added since May 8. SPAN: through 2026-12-31. https://metr.org/time-horizons/", "prob_at_bet": 0.4378, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/NayutaIto/will-metr-add-any-data-point-on-the", "unrealized_value": 26.89, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T16:55:41.046253+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "yRcdhOzRcs", "question": "Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 150, "shares": 213.63, "current_prob": 0.27783327270391406, "my_estimate": 0.15, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7353 entry: METR Feb-24-2026 uplift update: both follow-up CIs cross zero (returning devs -18% [-38%,+9%], new devs -4% [-15%,+9%]); METR says it is changing the study design, six candidate methods, no timeline (https://metr.org/blog/2026-02-24-uplift-update/). METR blog index has no uplift/RCT post after Feb (latest 10-06; https://metr.org/blog/). May-2026 item is a self-report survey, not an RCT. P(METR publishes an RCT result by 12-31) ~.2 x P(CI excludes zero | published) ~.6 = .12, plus a non-METR RCT the creator accepts ~.03 => .15. Would change: any METR uplift post or preprint in Q4.", "prob_at_bet": 0.3187, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/before-2027-will-a-rct-find-that-ai", "unrealized_value": 154.28, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T22:45:41.252435+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "2Z028l65Eh", "question": "Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 306.89, "current_prob": 0.16804957462451417, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7353 entry: AA Omniscience page HTML fetched 10-15 (https://artificialanalysis.ai/evaluations/omniscience): 31 hallucinationRate values, minimum 0.1507 (the top model: accuracy 0.499, attempt rate 0.612). Clanky reports benchlm with Command A+ 14.2%. My 8/19 look found 14.2% too, so the floor has been flat for ~2 months. Under 5% needs a ~3x drop in 77 days. Main path is a lab shipping a heavy-abstention frontier model (the metric rewards refusing), ~.06. Would change: any frontier model listed under 8%.", "prob_at_bet": 0.2041, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JaundicedBaboon/before-2027-will-a-frontier-ai-mode", "unrealized_value": 255.32, "entry_date": "2026-10-15", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-15T22:46:26.856664+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "UDg6PiBixc8JElqKcrUn", "question": "Will artificial room temperature intelligence exist by 2027? (Fahrenheit)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 300, "shares": 958.33, "current_prob": 0.4876, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7515 STALE CONVICTION re-check: bet tape fetched this cycle (https://api.manifold.markets/v0/bets?contractId=UDg6PiBixc8JElqKcrUn&limit=3) shows the last trade is still my own NO on 10-24 (0.61 to 0.57); nobody has bet in 9 days, so the 57% is my own print, not market disagreement. Criteria unchanged per c7457 (https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-artificial-room-temperature-in): needs expert-consensus general intelligence AND a consistent 68-77 WAIS score; frontier models still test far above 77 (https://trackingai.org/home). Hold 0.04. SPAN: through 2027-01-02", "prob_at_bet": 0.7894, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-artificial-room-temperature-in", "unrealized_value": 491.05, "entry_date": "2026-11-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-02T10:55:28.349567+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "CT29jJSoZTa5E7gAXsmw", "question": "At the beginning of 2027, will Americans like Sam Altman more than they like Mark Zuckerberg?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 250, "shares": 438.13, "current_prob": 0.6261, "my_estimate": 0.8, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.5122, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EliTyre/at-the-beginning-of-2027-will-ameri", "unrealized_value": 274.31, "entry_date": "2026-10-16", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-16T05:27:04.679622+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "lCdu8E6ySc", "question": "Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 25, "shares": 220.461, "current_prob": 0.1054, "my_estimate": 0.11507242433840868, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": 0.11507242433840868, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-i-think-all-ai-hell-broke-loos-N9U9U2IPzn", "unrealized_value": 23.24, "entry_date": "2026-09-18", "estimate_set_at": "2026-09-18T08:27:19.125540+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "20RSRtSsPS", "question": "More than 70% of U.S. population believe Trump is too old to be president by EOY 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 388.78, "current_prob": 0.3154869318344913, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 56, "close_date": "2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.4007, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/TheWabiSabi/more-than-70-of-us-population-belie", "unrealized_value": 266.12, "entry_date": "2026-10-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-19T07:03:51.499203+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "ZZInqhOOuU", "question": "Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 299.81, "current_prob": 0.1522849280447645, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.1812, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Noit/will-any-uk-political-party-consist-n2A6InC8qh", "unrealized_value": 254.15, "entry_date": "2026-10-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-19T07:05:26.050709+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "KLhhiPOOJbTLJw4XNudp", "question": "Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 332.73, "current_prob": 0.2097, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 63, "close_date": "2027-01-06T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Entry c7362: needs a single >=45s, >=90% AI (incl audio) YouTube video at 1B views by 1/1/2027 (73 days). Biggest AI video ~700M is a 27s Short (ruled out on 500M sibling 8/25); next ones ~260M Shorts per https://promptiex.com/most-watched-ai-videos-on-youtube/ ; top AI channels total only ~2B views across all videos https://www.tabla.com.sg/news/india/indias-bandar-apna-dost-tops-global-ai-video-charts . Falsifier: a >=45s AI video above ~600M by mid-Nov. Resolver risk: RemNi inactive. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": 0.2777, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b-29128e7a10e6", "unrealized_value": 262.96, "entry_date": "2026-10-19", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-19T22:05:37.930622+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "fQwtApflMq8H2B0X9d9s", "question": "Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250.0, "shares": 417.77, "current_prob": 0.34, "my_estimate": 0.08, "days_to_close": 117, "close_date": "2027-03-01T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.43, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-200a1b818595", "unrealized_value": 275.73, "entry_date": "2026-10-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-20T04:11:21.110824+00:00", "domain": "ai" }, { "market_id": "6nUEI0uqSN", "question": "Will Canada sign a binding procurement contract for the Saab Gripen fighter before the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 445.17, "current_prob": 0.0656, "my_estimate": 0.09, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.4932, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/GPeters/will-canada-sign-a-binding-procurem", "unrealized_value": 415.97, "entry_date": "2026-10-20", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-20T09:34:07.543578+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ntsNphsqIl", "question": "Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 421.04, "current_prob": 0.35756097663862496, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 340, "close_date": "2027-10-10T06:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7369 entry: BLS core CPI SA (CUSR0000SA0L1E) Sept 2026 = 338.896, Jun 336.065, Sept 2025 330.418 (YoY 2.57%, 3m annualized 3.4%). 373.03 needs +10.07% in 12 months; would require a 1970s-scale shock. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E", "prob_at_bet": 0.4568, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/notapollo/will-the-cpi-less-food-and-energy-b", "unrealized_value": 270.49, "entry_date": "2026-10-21", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-21T15:14:42.893443+00:00", "domain": "policy" }, { "market_id": "A5RCgNRLs9", "question": "Will Washington DC Initiative 86, Prohibit Force Feeding Birds and Sale of Foie Gras, pass in the November Election?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 250, "shares": 430.04, "current_prob": 0.8419, "my_estimate": 0.85, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7395 re-derivation (was .74 on base rates with no poll found): Washingtonian reports a poll commissioned by the sponsor DC Voters for Animals showing 78 percent of DC voters support a foie gras ban; the only opposition named is individual chefs (one Washington Post op-ed), no funded No campaign. Sponsor polls run high, but even a 15-point haircut leaves a majority in a DC electorate that passed I-81 and I-82. SPAN: through 2026-11-03 https://washingtonian.com/2026/08/05/foie-gras-ban-will-be-on-dcs-ballot-this-november/ https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/dc-voters-decide-foie-gras-ban-november-election-force-feeding-birda-ducks-geese-animal-cruelty", "prob_at_bet": 0.5291, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-washington-dc-initiative-86-pr", "unrealized_value": 362.05, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T21:14:32.837063+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "ZORPZQhzPq", "question": "ZORPZQhzPq", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 612.86, "shares": 1044.8033, "current_prob": 0.7466241437781141, "my_estimate": 0.35, "days_to_close": 10, "close_date": "2026-11-15T00:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7375 re-derive: phase-2 public board fetched 10/23 now shows marius_binner TIED rank 1 with oliver_chen (both 1.3e-9 adjusted; oliver_chen submitted 10/20 17:55), J2W and mliston tied 3rd at 1.4e-9, and submissions still landing 10/21 (thegamers). The 10/19 clean lead is gone. The private re-eval (~11/15) breaks a 2-sig-fig display tie at full precision on a new sample, so it's roughly a coin flip with oliver_chen, minus the chance a 3rd-place entrant passes both: ~35%. SPAN: through 2026-11-15. https://www.aicrowd.com/challenges/arc-white-box-estimation-challenge-2026/leaderboards?round=phase-2", "prob_at_bet": 0.7466241437781141, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-marius-binner-win-the-arc-whit", "unrealized_value": 780.08, "entry_date": "2026-10-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-23T11:54:26.456299+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "gq5RCCO6PN", "question": "T Coronae Borealis reaches magnitude 5.0 before November 11th, 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 303.54, "current_prob": 0.0857, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 6, "close_date": "2026-11-10T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.193, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EstMtz/t-coronae-borealis-reaches-magnitud-SpAug080pQ", "unrealized_value": 277.53, "entry_date": "2026-10-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-23T11:55:11.157804+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "9O0hRsuZqA", "question": "MCHI (iShares MSCI China ETF) will close above 59 on the latest trading day of 2026", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 45.0, "current_prob": 0.3902439024390245, "my_estimate": 0.02, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.5, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MichaeldelaMaza/mchi-ishares-msci-china-etf-will-cl", "unrealized_value": 27.44, "entry_date": "2026-10-23", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-23T11:55:33.173104+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "IsScud6Snq", "question": "Will the Korean stock market hit an all time high within 6 months?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 48.84, "current_prob": 0.3881, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 65, "close_date": "2027-01-08T20:03:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.5488, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/PeterMillerc030/will-the-korean-stock-market-hit-an", "unrealized_value": 29.89, "entry_date": "2026-10-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-24T10:15:11.278686+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "9gzl5Rp902", "question": "Will Micron hit an all time high within 6 months?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 66.83, "current_prob": 0.5905, "my_estimate": 0.32, "days_to_close": 65, "close_date": "2027-01-08T21:54:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7426 re-derivation: Yahoo chart API shows MU last 964.45, 52-week/all-time high 1255.0 (2026-06-25), so YES needs a +30% intraday touch by 2027-01-08 (~50 trading days). Realized vol 20d 0.55, 60d 0.515, 6mo 0.89; reflection-principle touch prob is ~0.28 at 0.55 vol and ~0.50 at 0.89 vol; weighting the recent regime gives ~0.32. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/MU?range=6mo&interval=1d SPAN: through 2027-01-08", "prob_at_bet": 0.6977, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/PeterMillerc030/will-micron-hit-an-all-time-high-wi", "unrealized_value": 27.37, "entry_date": "2026-10-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-28T13:52:56.499860+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Sp6tQtgRLU", "question": "Will Singapore rank higher than Hong Kong in the 2026 Fraser Institute Economic Freedom of the World Index?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 40.31, "current_prob": 0.147, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-02T05:13:18.894000+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.4267, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Web3ICP/will-singapore-rank-higher-than-hon", "unrealized_value": 34.38, "entry_date": "2026-10-24", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-24T21:52:40.128832+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "pg9P0tNL8P", "question": "Will Sonic $S (former Fantom $FTM) reach $0.50 by the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 75, "shares": 189.58, "current_prob": 0.5249154204237826, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7390 derivation replacing the entry stub: CoinGecko shows Sonic (S) at 0.046 USD on 2026-10-26, 90-day range 0.021-0.061 (https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/sonic-3/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=90&interval=daily). Reaching 0.50 by Dec 31 needs about an 11x rise in 66 days from a token that has not been above 0.061 in 90 days. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": 0.6771, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/PaulJohnsonLZcu/will-sonic-s-former-fantom-ftm-reac", "unrealized_value": 90.07, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T13:32:28.364365+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "AlytgS0I55", "question": "Ed Sheeran has a billboard number 1 single in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 50, "shares": 68.33, "current_prob": 0.0617, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.2981, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Drifting/ed-sheeran-has-a-billboard-number-1", "unrealized_value": 64.11, "entry_date": "2026-10-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-25T06:39:35.403137+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "c8N8qqdU2P", "question": "Charli XCX scores a billboard #1 single in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 50, "shares": 66.89, "current_prob": 0.1677, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.28, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Drifting/charli-xcx-scores-a-billboard-1-sin", "unrealized_value": 55.67, "entry_date": "2026-10-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-25T06:39:39.854185+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "uyczEh8yAh", "question": "The Fate of Ophelia over 2b Spotify streams by EOY 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 49.46, "current_prob": 0.1683, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7387 writing the c7386 entry reason (none stored): kworb 10-24 shows Fate of Ophelia at 1,750,038,272 Spotify streams, +~1.89M/day and slowing; 68 days at that pace reaches ~1.88B by Dec 31, 2B needs ~3.7M/day. Held .03. https://kworb.net/spotify/artist/06HL4z0CvFAxyc27GXpf02_songs.html", "prob_at_bet": 0.556, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/the-fate-of-ophelia-over-2b-spotify", "unrealized_value": 41.14, "entry_date": "2026-10-25", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-25T16:55:06.412994+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "6PNhz6phZc", "question": "9984 9984?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 300, "shares": 399.83, "current_prob": 0.23411150263886957, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7458 sourced re-derive: SoftBank 9984.T last 4481 JPY (Oct 30 close), 3-month max high 6959, needs +123% to touch 9984 by Dec 31 (~2 months). At ~60% annual vol a touch needs a >3 sd move; fat tails -> ~2%. Source: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/9984.T?range=3mo&interval=1d . Prior .04 was an unsourced clanky entry. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": 0.28, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/jim/9984-9984", "unrealized_value": 306.23, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T14:11:44.808337+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "LulPdRqclS", "question": "How quickly will the Associated Press call the Georgia Senate election? (Polls close 7pm)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 42.6, "current_prob": 0.1201, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "AP called it at 7:55 p.m. EST: OPB/AP story https://www.opb.org/article/2026/11/03/democrat-jon-ossoff-wins-reelection-to-u-s-senate-from-georgia/ (fetched 02:2xZ) says The Associated Press declared Ossoff the winner at 7:55 p.m. EST. Every window ending before 7:55 resolves NO; 8pm and later YES. Prior entry estimate had no source (scan).", "prob_at_bet": 0.45, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/how-quickly-will-the-associated-pre", "unrealized_value": 37.48, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T02:14:15.927951+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "LulPdRqclS", "question": "How quickly will the Associated Press call the Georgia Senate election? (Polls close 7pm)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 45.0, "current_prob": 0.2147, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "AP called it at 7:55 p.m. EST: OPB/AP story https://www.opb.org/article/2026/11/03/democrat-jon-ossoff-wins-reelection-to-u-s-senate-from-georgia/ (fetched 02:2xZ) says The Associated Press declared Ossoff the winner at 7:55 p.m. EST. Every window ending before 7:55 resolves NO; 8pm and later YES. Prior entry estimate had no source (scan).", "prob_at_bet": 0.47, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/how-quickly-will-the-associated-pre", "unrealized_value": 35.34, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T02:14:16.635990+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "LulPdRqclS", "question": "How quickly will the Associated Press call the Georgia Senate election? (Polls close 7pm)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 48.64, "current_prob": 0.4272, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "AP called it at 7:55 p.m. EST: OPB/AP story https://www.opb.org/article/2026/11/03/democrat-jon-ossoff-wins-reelection-to-u-s-senate-from-georgia/ (fetched 02:2xZ) says The Associated Press declared Ossoff the winner at 7:55 p.m. EST. Every window ending before 7:55 resolves NO; 8pm and later YES. Prior entry estimate had no source (scan).", "prob_at_bet": 0.53, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/how-quickly-will-the-associated-pre", "unrealized_value": 27.86, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T02:14:17.368982+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "y58OysCzPQ", "question": "Will there be more international travelers to Japan in 2026 than in 2025?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 53.9, "current_prob": 0.2903, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.6018, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-there-be-more-international-tr-uIpAz5LqLz", "unrealized_value": 38.25, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T13:30:00.583418+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "C85l5ntEtS", "question": "Pope Leon XIV in Argentina before 2027", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 25, "shares": 54.28, "current_prob": 0.9698, "my_estimate": 0.96, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Vatican confirmed Pope Leo XIV's Argentina visit Nov 8-11 (Uruguay/Argentina/Peru trip Nov 6-17): https://buenosairesherald.com/society/vatican-confirms-leo-xivs-visit-to-argentina-in-november ; https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/pope-leo-xiv-visit-uruguay-argentina-peru-latin-135382238 . Residual risk = papal health/cancellation within ~2 weeks.", "prob_at_bet": 0.3686, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/bbno/pope-leon-xiv-in-argentina-before-2", "unrealized_value": 52.64, "entry_date": "2026-10-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-27T23:07:35.766536+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nCzlt5NyOq", "question": "Will Strasbourg hit an all time record high temperature in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 25, "shares": 41.33, "current_prob": 0.6519020814523282, "my_estimate": 0.93, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.5558, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AutopoieticErgodicity/will-strasbourg-hit-an-all-time-rec", "unrealized_value": 26.94, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T19:52:49.014603+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Bm7kH3U4D2ygJg0RuDto", "question": "Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 310.43, "current_prob": 0.17266302623622504, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T12:30:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.2195, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-worlds-total-fertility-rat", "unrealized_value": 256.83, "entry_date": "2026-10-26", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-26T22:36:55.879504+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "WGIZwAe8ZKPNcPwJwB11", "question": "What will be the results of Israel's next election?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 42.53, "current_prob": 0.2139, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T21:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Leg resolves on whether Netanyahu is elected to the Knesset (creator clarification 2026-06-30 in description). He heads the Likud list; polls ahead of the 10-27 vote had Likud at 25-26 seats (i24NEWS https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israeli-elections/artc-i24news-poll-likud-slips-to-25-seats-as-ben-gvir-s-party-reaches-double-digits), and exit-poll coverage shows his bloc tied, not wiped out. Residual 3% = resolver misreading 'elected' as becoming PM. [source never served to the logged fetcher; read via: seen only as a WebSearch summary]", "prob_at_bet": 0.5136, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/0482/what-will-be-the-results-of-israels", "unrealized_value": 33.43, "entry_date": "2026-10-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-28T05:51:19.236934+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "PZnRZhLUgt", "question": "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 381.43, "current_prob": 0.34, "my_estimate": 0.13, "days_to_close": 116, "close_date": "2027-02-28T09:00:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.3653, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-2026-be-the-hottest-year-on-re", "unrealized_value": 251.74, "entry_date": "2026-10-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-27T05:15:22.793828+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "P5syduh2cR", "question": "Global Average Temperature Oct 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 51, "shares": 469.32, "current_prob": 0.538, "my_estimate": 0.25, "days_to_close": 11, "close_date": "2026-11-15T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7539 re-derivation with the FULL October: ERA5 climatepulse daily series now has all 31 Oct days FINAL, mean anomaly 0.904 vs 1991-2020 (entry used a 25-day partial, 0.885) https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv . GISTEMP-minus-ERA5 offsets from https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv : Oct 2016-25 mean 0.539 sd 0.052 gives centre 1.443; Sep 2026 offset 0.561 plus Sep-to-Oct change (2010-25 mean +0.012, sd 0.057) gives centre 1.466-1.477. This corrects c7411: Sep offsets 2016-25 average 0.538, the same as October, so there is no seasonal Oct drop. Blend centre ~1.43-1.45, sd ~0.055, so this bucket is 0.22-0.32; .25 is the conservative end. The recent-3-Octobers offsets (0.49-0.54) are the case for the lower bucket and keep me off .30.", "prob_at_bet": 0.0604, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/global-average-temperature-oct-2026", "unrealized_value": 252.49, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T18:11:13.486048+00:00", "domain": "space" }, { "market_id": "N5dsIpCOgR", "question": "F1 2026 Ferrari finish in the World Constructors' Championship (WCC)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 72, "shares": 91.4, "current_prob": 0.0901, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.2248, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BlitzEver/f1-2026-in-which-position-will-ferr", "unrealized_value": 83.16, "entry_date": "2026-10-27", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-27T11:59:08.270590+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "l0y9S0I0Sc", "question": "What will be true for the 2026 F1 season?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 50, "shares": 90.46, "current_prob": 0.33741027584941474, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 33, "close_date": "2026-12-07T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7524 re-derive after R19: Jolpica driver standings (https://api.jolpi.ca/ergast/f1/2026/driverstandings.json, round 19) show Verstappen 261, Hadjar 107, so 2H-V = -47 (was -26 after R18 per c7433). Schedule (https://api.jolpi.ca/ergast/f1/2026.json) has 4 GPs left (Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar, Abu Dhabi). Hadjar needs to outscore Max by 47+ net doubled points, roughly Max scoring near zero in most remaining races while Hadjar scores podium-level. The c7433 Monte Carlo gave 7.5-17.7% at -26 with 5 left; at -47 with 4 left it is ~3%. SPAN: through 2026-12-06.", "prob_at_bet": 0.5615, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AlexanderTheGreater/what-will-be-true-for-the-2026-f1-s", "unrealized_value": 59.94, "entry_date": "2026-11-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-02T22:46:33.290564+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Uh025ICczh", "question": "Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 125, "shares": 163.97, "current_prob": 0.2276, "my_estimate": 0.06, "days_to_close": 26, "close_date": "2026-11-30T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.2656, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MachiNi/will-at-least-one-major-hurricane-m", "unrealized_value": 126.65, "entry_date": "2026-10-28", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-28T03:18:36.499787+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "gZ8QpOu02z", "question": "Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 352.97, "current_prob": 0.2102, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7442 entry: DMV deployment list as of Oct 22 2026 lacks Zoox (testing only) https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/ ; CPUC permits page shows Zoox Drivered+Driverless Pilot only https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/regulatory-services/licensing/transportation-licensing-and-analysis-branch/autonomous-vehicle-programs/autonomous-vehicle-program-permits-issued ; CPUC deployment requires DMV deployment first + Tier 3 resolution. SPAN: through 2026-12-31", "prob_at_bet": 0.3259, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-zoox-obtain-a-permit-to-operat", "unrealized_value": 278.78, "entry_date": "2026-10-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-29T10:48:27.361354+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ZA8292N5QC", "question": "Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's \"The Coffee Test\" before 2027?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 351.85, "current_prob": 0.2438, "my_estimate": 0.13, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.3329, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/AlanTuring/will-a-robot-be-created-that-is-cap-l92Q228LNL", "unrealized_value": 266.07, "entry_date": "2026-10-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-29T14:41:52.769951+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nP8UZLtzyn", "question": "EPL: On January 11, 2027, will Erling Haaland be the outright leading goalscorer in the Premier League?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 250, "shares": 421.29, "current_prob": 0.6429444362015018, "my_estimate": 0.72, "days_to_close": 68, "close_date": "2027-01-11T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7450 entry: ESPN EPL goals leaders fetched 21:3xZ Oct 29 show Haaland 9 (8 matches), Isak 6, Tavernier/Joao Pedro 5 (https://site.api.espn.com/apis/site/v2/sports/soccer/eng.1/statistics). ~12 PL games left to Jan 11 (Clanky's ESPN fixture count, not re-fetched by me). Poisson sim with 18% injury chance, 9 chasers, ties=NO: 0.72 at Haaland 0.75/game, 0.79 at 0.85. No injury: Oct 3 Norway knock and Oct 17 foot knock, scored since. Polymarket full-season top scorer ~.69 per Clanky (not fetched). Falsifier: Haaland injury >4 weeks, or Isak/Pedro within 1 goal by mid-December.", "prob_at_bet": 0.5421, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Web3ICP/on-january-11-2027-will-erling-haal", "unrealized_value": 270.87, "entry_date": "2026-10-29", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-29T21:23:48.182337+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "nyQhnCP069", "question": "Will Nvidia have the highest market cap at the end of 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 730.4, "current_prob": 0.5, "my_estimate": 0.52, "days_to_close": 66, "close_date": "2027-01-09T08:22:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.7307, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManiPart/will-nvidia-have-the-highest-market-U0csqsuzPh", "unrealized_value": 365.2, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T06:15:45.508219+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "6UytuZ0cQh", "question": "Will the \"Local Taxpayer Protection Act to Save Proposition 13\" pass (Prop 43)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 305.77, "current_prob": 0.1026, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-04T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "PPIC Statewide Survey Oct 2026 (fieldwork Oct 16-22), likely voters: Prop 43 (two-thirds vote for local special taxes) 42% yes, 55% no; Sep survey 43 yes / 51 no. Support below 50 in every region. https://www.ppic.org/pdf/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-october-2026.pdf ; Berkeley IGS late Sep had 43 yes 34 no 23 undecided (seen only via search summary). A measure at 42 yes with no rising in the last poll rarely passes; raised from unsourced .06 to .10 for poll error. SPAN: through 2026-11-03", "prob_at_bet": 0.2, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BenM/will-the-local-taxpayer-protection", "unrealized_value": 274.4, "entry_date": "2026-11-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-02T09:39:05.674865+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "9LOZtlsAyQ", "question": "Will bitcoin reach 81000 by 10/31/2026 11:59pm", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 150, "shares": 207.98, "current_prob": 0.01, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-10-31T23:58:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7464 touch re-derive: Coinbase spot 77,507 at 15:29Z (https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/ticker); needs +4.5% to 81,000 in ~32.5h. Pre-creation 81,890 high (10/29) excluded by the description; max hourly high since 07:06Z creation 78,490 (https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=3600). Vol: Deribit DVOL ~40 (https://www.deribit.com/api/v2/public/get_volatility_index_data?currency=BTC&resolution=3600), realized 72h 49%, 24h 70%. Driftless touch 2*N(-z): .07 at 40 vol, .15 at 50, .30 at 70; blend ~.10. Hold NO to resolution.", "prob_at_bet": 0.2979, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JoshMiller/will-bitcoin-reach-81000-by-1031202", "unrealized_value": 205.9, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T15:29:40.307597+00:00", "domain": "crypto" }, { "market_id": "exxz391dr2", "question": "Will the USA vs Adobe trial be dropped / dismissed / thrown out before it goes to trial?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 250, "shares": 1369.19, "current_prob": 0.4881, "my_estimate": 0.7, "days_to_close": 59, "close_date": "2027-01-02T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.1215, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-usa-vs-adobe-trial-be-drop", "unrealized_value": 668.3, "entry_date": "2026-10-30", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-30T19:23:02.275359+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "eDjTOzUnyuabruJo4Nx2", "question": "Will the GDP per capita of Ghana be over $5000 by the end of 2026 (current $US)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 38, "shares": 52.03, "current_prob": 0.24128340156910225, "my_estimate": 0.03, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.3005, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-the-gdp-per-capita-of-ghana-be", "unrealized_value": 39.48, "entry_date": "2026-10-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-31T11:09:51.657895+00:00", "domain": "economics" }, { "market_id": "9EZ6Cd9U2Q", "question": "Will Karol Nawrocki be the President of Poland at the end of November 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 250, "shares": 441.3, "current_prob": 0.975, "my_estimate": 0.97, "days_to_close": 26, "close_date": "2026-11-30T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.5123, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/will-karol-nawrocki-be-the-presiden", "unrealized_value": 430.27, "entry_date": "2026-10-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-31T13:39:48.515065+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "N5O2RlE0N0", "question": "Will Donald Tusk be the Prime Minister of Poland at the end of November 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 200, "shares": 272.26, "current_prob": 0.9041, "my_estimate": 0.93, "days_to_close": 26, "close_date": "2026-11-30T22:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.7114, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/will-donald-tusk-be-the-prime-minis", "unrealized_value": 246.15, "entry_date": "2026-10-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-31T13:40:10.772041+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "pQczQ9sZh0", "question": "EPL: Will Chelsea beat Sunderland by 2 or more goals?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 450.0, "current_prob": 0.25, "my_estimate": 0.23, "days_to_close": 4, "close_date": "2026-11-08T13:57:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.5, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Web3ICP/epl-will-chelsea-beat-sunderland-by", "unrealized_value": 337.5, "entry_date": "2026-10-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-31T16:16:38.967029+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "8shSUzS0AA", "question": "Billie Eilish releases a #1 Billboard album in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 50, "shares": 64.38, "current_prob": 0.20206458420898024, "my_estimate": 0.04, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.2464, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Drifting/billie-eilish-releases-a-1-billboar", "unrealized_value": 51.37, "entry_date": "2026-10-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-31T20:13:04.224016+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "zycRpEEcyC", "question": "Stonks: Will the DJIA close below 47,000 by January 31, 2027? (1/31/27)", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 25, "shares": 48.87, "current_prob": 0.4267303552484625, "my_estimate": 0.14, "days_to_close": 89, "close_date": "2027-02-01T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.55, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Web3ICP/stonks-will-the-djia-close-below-47", "unrealized_value": 28.02, "entry_date": "2026-10-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-31T20:13:14.874889+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Ochy0zp2sz", "question": "Will Democrats win any of these ‘solid Republican’ house races?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 250, "shares": 400.5, "current_prob": 0.8991, "my_estimate": 0.78, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-04T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.5753, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-democrats-win-any-of-these-hou", "unrealized_value": 360.09, "entry_date": "2026-10-31", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-31T23:00:48.850352+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "LpdhPNNE99", "question": "Will Democrats win the Texas Commissioner of Agriculture Election?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 432.19, "current_prob": 0.4091, "my_estimate": 0.27, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7495 entry (Clanky c1622 lead, verified): UH Hobby Oct 10-14 n=2000 LV Ag Sheets 46 Tucker 40, same poll Lt Gov R+5 AG R+5 Railroad R+2 (https://www.uh.edu/hobby/texas2026/statewide.pdf, fetched 08:27Z); Polymarket D Lt Gov .23, AG .255, Railroad .535 (https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=texas%20lieutenant%20governor). Ag tracks Lt Gov/AG not Railroad; 74-76% don't know either candidate => party-line. Falsifier: late poll with Ag inside 2pts.", "prob_at_bet": 0.48, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-democrats-win-the-texas-commis", "unrealized_value": 255.38, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T08:28:36.953189+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "ZOQN2gtZnE", "question": "Will Utah Amendment B (60% vote for tax-increasing initiatives) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 358.4, "current_prob": 0.0855, "my_estimate": 0.14, "days_to_close": 14, "close_date": "2026-11-18T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Noble Predictive Oct 26-27 (527 likely voters, ±4.27): oppose 56, support 34, a 22-pt swing from Sept's 50-21; opposition outspending ~M+ vs ~/bin/bash.1M on B. Simple majority needed; 22-pt deficit 5 days out. https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2026/10/29/poll-shows-voters-are-turning/ (Sept poll: https://www.ksl.com/article/51631261/proposed-amendment-would-raise-the-bar-for-some-utah-ballot-initiatives)", "prob_at_bet": 0.3489, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-utah-amendment-b-60-vote-for-t", "unrealized_value": 327.76, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T09:50:12.688133+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "0UUn6C6POd", "question": "How many House seats do the Republicans flip in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 83, "shares": 118.5, "current_prob": 0.7334063932195048, "my_estimate": 0.85, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.6652, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/how-many-house-seats-do-the-republi", "unrealized_value": 86.91, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T21:37:02.943416+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "Q0ZQyt9hsA", "question": "How many House seats do the Democrats flip in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 83, "shares": 117.8, "current_prob": 0.736956764620424, "my_estimate": 0.83, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.67, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/how-many-house-seats-do-the-democra", "unrealized_value": 86.81, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T21:37:07.445737+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "0UUn6C6POd", "question": "How many House seats do the Republicans flip in 2026?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 83, "shares": 102.21, "current_prob": 0.063, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.2069, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/how-many-house-seats-do-the-republi", "unrealized_value": 95.77, "entry_date": "2026-11-01", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-01T21:37:11.516472+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "6O2g5QNRch", "question": "Will California Proposition 42 (ban on new state personal property taxes) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 184.75, "shares": 411.36, "current_prob": 0.865, "my_estimate": 0.4, "days_to_close": 14, "close_date": "2026-11-18T07:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.6007, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-california-proposition-42-ban", "unrealized_value": 55.53, "entry_date": "2026-11-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-02T04:22:59.953398+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "0pUs8nlsUL", "question": "Which of the Manifold rated Lean and Likely R senate races will Republicans win?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 248, "shares": 412.49, "current_prob": 0.3431, "my_estimate": 0.32, "days_to_close": 0, "close_date": "2026-11-03T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.448, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/which-of-the-manifold-rated-lean-an", "unrealized_value": 270.96, "entry_date": "2026-11-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-02T07:05:23.698616+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "C2dN0R2L88", "question": "Will National recieve more party vote than Greens, ACT and NZ first combined in the 2026 NZ election?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 230, "shares": 286.38, "current_prob": 0.1809687534780336, "my_estimate": 0.07, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.2139, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/Jack1/will-national-recieve-more-party-vo", "unrealized_value": 234.55, "entry_date": "2026-11-02", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-02T16:08:42.259766+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "pPqIO85nCA", "question": "Will either party win 2/3s of the Cook Tossup House seats?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 126, "shares": 310.91, "current_prob": 0.9588, "my_estimate": 0.88, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Prior .58 (c7527) rested on pre-election Polymarket district prices (https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?slug=ne-01-house-election-winner and siblings, sum D 12.4 of 18). Re-fetched NE-01 at 02:10Z: still D .44 / R .51, so not every toss-up has broken. But the House ladder moved hard since polls closed: Kalshi https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXDHOUSEWON&status=open&limit=100 at 02:07Z AL246 .81, AL250 .71, AL254 .53 (median ~255 D seats, vs AL246 .50 at 00:49Z). At a net gain near +40, 12 of 18 toss-ups is the expected case; .88 leaves room for a regional split (NE-01-type seats holding R). Price .938.", "prob_at_bet": 0.362, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-either-party-win-23s-of-the-co", "unrealized_value": 298.1, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T02:10:21.303838+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "gLR5Q9qpAQ", "question": "Which MLB free agents will accept qualifying offers?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 31, "shares": 55.84, "current_prob": 0.391, "my_estimate": 0.05, "days_to_close": 13, "close_date": "2026-11-17T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.5, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JTBooth/which-mlb-free-agents-will-accept-q", "unrealized_value": 34.01, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T14:20:17.217040+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "gLR5Q9qpAQ", "question": "Which MLB free agents will accept qualifying offers?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 31, "shares": 55.84, "current_prob": 0.391, "my_estimate": 0.1, "days_to_close": 13, "close_date": "2026-11-17T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.5, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JTBooth/which-mlb-free-agents-will-accept-q", "unrealized_value": 34.01, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T14:20:19.272080+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "gLR5Q9qpAQ", "question": "Which MLB free agents will accept qualifying offers?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 31, "shares": 55.84, "current_prob": 0.391, "my_estimate": 0.12, "days_to_close": 13, "close_date": "2026-11-17T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.5, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/JTBooth/which-mlb-free-agents-will-accept-q", "unrealized_value": 34.01, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T14:20:21.087742+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "02NlSsRNtA", "question": "02NlSsRNtA", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 34.37, "shares": 123.633, "current_prob": 0.0087, "my_estimate": 0.005, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "[RECOVERED] Position was missing from state — re-added by reconciliation", "prob_at_bet": null, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/MickBransfield/how-many-hurricanes-in-2026", "unrealized_value": 1.08, "entry_date": "2026-10-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-10-04T15:35:30.264778+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "ppCQ806ENE", "question": "Will Zelensky remain president of Ukraine until the end of 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 250, "shares": 345.19, "current_prob": 0.8668, "my_estimate": 0.95, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "c7538 entry (Clanky c1640 lead, verified): decree 1060/2026 extends martial law to 2027-01-29 per https://unn.ua/en/news/zelenskyy-signed-decrees-extending-martial-law-and-mobilization-in-ukraine (curl 200, read 'until January 29, 2027'); election barred under martial law, Art.108 holds office to successor. NO routes = death/resignation/impeachment in 58d. Polymarket zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027 at 0.055 out via https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/public-search?q=zelenskyy%20out. Would change: a peace deal with announced resignation/early election, or health news.", "prob_at_bet": 0.6924, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/StanislavDyda/will-zelensky-remain-president-of-u", "unrealized_value": 299.21, "entry_date": "2026-11-03", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-03T16:53:53.450125+00:00", "domain": "geopolitics" }, { "market_id": "LIugunSZPZ", "question": "Will 2026 be a bigger blue wave than 2018?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 250, "shares": 419.34, "current_prob": 0.6445027706220091, "my_estimate": 0.88, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Same instrument as the prior .80 write (Kalshi seat ladder), re-pulled: >235 = 236+, between AL234 and AL238. Kalshi KXDHOUSEWON ladder fetched 02:07Z via https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXDHOUSEWON (bid/ask: AL234 .93/.94, AL238 .92/.93, AL242 .91/.92, AL246 .81/.82, AL250 .71/.73, AL254 .53/.54); CONTROLH-2026-D .994. At 00:49Z the same ladder read AL238 .81, AL242 .62, AL246 .50; the move is early returns (AP called NC-11 flip for Ager, CNBC live https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/03/midterm-elections-2026-live-updates.html). Shaded below Kalshi for election-night noise and AP-call timing.", "prob_at_bet": 0.5459, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/BenAybar/will-2026-be-a-bigger-blue-wave-tha", "unrealized_value": 270.27, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T02:09:39.735396+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "lp6LI2Cu9A", "question": "Will the Democratic party win more than 240 US house seats in the 2026 election?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 300, "shares": 611.71, "current_prob": 0.958, "my_estimate": 0.86, "days_to_close": 58, "close_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Same instrument as the prior .70 write, re-pulled: >240 = 241+, just below AL242 .91. Kalshi KXDHOUSEWON ladder re-fetched 02:07Z (the prior belief's own source, https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXDHOUSEWON&status=open&limit=100 ; same series query): bid/ask AL234 .93/.94, AL238 .92/.93, AL242 .91/.92, AL246 .81/.82, AL250 .71/.73, AL254 .53/.54; CONTROLH-2026-D .994. At 00:49Z the same ladder read AL238 .81, AL242 .62, AL246 .50; the move is early returns (AP called NC-11 flip for Ager, CNBC live https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/03/midterm-elections-2026-live-updates.html). Shaded below Kalshi for election-night noise and AP-call timing.", "prob_at_bet": 0.4474, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/kl938/will-the-democratic-party-win-more-Sh65d0959n", "unrealized_value": 586.02, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T02:09:59.453059+00:00", "domain": "politics" }, { "market_id": "Q0ZQyt9hsA", "question": "How many House seats do the Democrats flip in 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount": 25, "shares": 74.43, "current_prob": 0.41775136704062016, "my_estimate": 0.78, "days_to_close": 57, "close_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00", "reasoning": "Entry belief (new leg). Kalshi seat ladder at 02:07Z (https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXDHOUSEWON&status=open&limit=100): AL242 .91, AL246 .81, AL250 .71, median ~255 D seats. 2024 baseline 215 D. Net +30 = 245 D seats -> ~.84 on the ladder; gross flips (if the creator counts district flips) is higher. .78 for election-night noise and the redistricting ambiguity in 'relative to 2024'. Early returns: AP called NC-11 flip (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/03/midterm-elections-2026-live-updates.html).", "prob_at_bet": 0.2628, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/how-many-house-seats-do-the-democra", "unrealized_value": 31.09, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T02:13:14.371211+00:00", "domain": "other" }, { "market_id": "NzdUgscpSp", "question": "Will Missouri Amendment 3 (repealing 2024 abortion-rights amendment) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?", "outcome": "NO", "amount": 250, "shares": 284.09, "current_prob": 0.10972826439195067, "my_estimate": 0.01, "days_to_close": null, "close_date": null, "reasoning": "", "prob_at_bet": 0.131, "market_url": "https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-missouri-amendment-3-repealing", "unrealized_value": 252.92, "entry_date": "2026-11-04", "estimate_set_at": "2026-11-04T04:59:54.081221+00:00", "domain": "politics" } ], "closed_positions": [ { "market_id": "uphA9gU6z0", "question": "Will GPT-5.4 outperform Claude Opus 4.6 at METR 50% time horizon?", "outcome": "YES", "amount_invested": 20, "amount_recovered": 22.15, "loss": 0, "reason_closed": "Low efficiency (0.5pp edge, 13d to close). Sold to free capital for rebalancing." }, { "market_id": "6SZq0nsPSN", "question": "Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?", "outcome": "YES", "amount_invested": 30, "amount_recovered": 32.33, "loss": 2.33, "reason_closed": "" }, { "market_id": "cL6LzcdSOs", "question": "Did military spending as % of GDP reach at least 2.0% for the European Union in 2025?", "outcome": "NO", "amount_invested": 30, "amount_recovered": 16.32, "loss": -13.68, "reason_closed": "Resolution criteria changed from 2.5% to 2.0%. Edge evaporated." }, { "market_id": "ylQnEcgzdU", "question": "Will OpenAI release a model named GPT 5.3 by the end of February?", "outcome": "YES", "amount_invested": 20, "amount_recovered": 16.48, "loss": -3.52, "reason_closed": "Market dropped to 50%. Strict resolution criteria. Edge negative. 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