{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import requests\n",
    "from scipy.stats import norm, chi2, genpareto\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "from arch import arch_model\n",
    "%matplotlib inline"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "      Unnamed: 0        date   open   high    low  close    volumn\n0              0  1992-11-17  76.00  76.50  61.90  73.50  13051800\n1              1  1992-11-18  70.00  87.00  70.00  85.10   8871100\n2              2  1992-11-19  86.00  93.50  80.00  88.20    650000\n3              3  1992-11-20  89.00  90.80  85.05  88.90   1305200\n4              4  1992-11-23  90.00  94.00  89.10  93.70    887100\n...          ...         ...    ...    ...    ...    ...       ...\n7309        7309  2023-06-05  11.25  11.40  11.03  11.39   3141326\n7310        7310  2023-06-06  11.46  11.58  11.31  11.39   4408895\n7311        7311  2023-06-07  11.26  11.40  11.16  11.24   4106022\n7312        7312  2023-06-08  11.35  11.43  11.19  11.43   4149589\n7313        7313  2023-06-09  11.40  11.86  11.27  11.80   5283459\n\n[7314 rows x 7 columns]",
      "text/html": "<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>Unnamed: 0</th>\n      <th>date</th>\n      <th>open</th>\n      <th>high</th>\n      <th>low</th>\n      <th>close</th>\n      <th>volumn</th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <th>0</th>\n      <td>0</td>\n      <td>1992-11-17</td>\n      <td>76.00</td>\n      <td>76.50</td>\n      <td>61.90</td>\n      <td>73.50</td>\n      <td>13051800</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>1</th>\n      <td>1</td>\n      <td>1992-11-18</td>\n      <td>70.00</td>\n      <td>87.00</td>\n      <td>70.00</td>\n      <td>85.10</td>\n      <td>8871100</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>2</th>\n      <td>2</td>\n      <td>1992-11-19</td>\n      <td>86.00</td>\n      <td>93.50</td>\n      <td>80.00</td>\n      <td>88.20</td>\n      <td>650000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>3</th>\n      <td>3</td>\n      <td>1992-11-20</td>\n      <td>89.00</td>\n      <td>90.80</td>\n      <td>85.05</td>\n      <td>88.90</td>\n      <td>1305200</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>4</th>\n      <td>4</td>\n      <td>1992-11-23</td>\n      <td>90.00</td>\n      <td>94.00</td>\n      <td>89.10</td>\n      <td>93.70</td>\n      <td>887100</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>...</th>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7309</th>\n      <td>7309</td>\n      <td>2023-06-05</td>\n      <td>11.25</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.03</td>\n      <td>11.39</td>\n      <td>3141326</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7310</th>\n      <td>7310</td>\n      <td>2023-06-06</td>\n      <td>11.46</td>\n      <td>11.58</td>\n      <td>11.31</td>\n      <td>11.39</td>\n      <td>4408895</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7311</th>\n      <td>7311</td>\n      <td>2023-06-07</td>\n      <td>11.26</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.16</td>\n      <td>11.24</td>\n      <td>4106022</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7312</th>\n      <td>7312</td>\n      <td>2023-06-08</td>\n      <td>11.35</td>\n      <td>11.43</td>\n      <td>11.19</td>\n      <td>11.43</td>\n      <td>4149589</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7313</th>\n      <td>7313</td>\n      <td>2023-06-09</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.86</td>\n      <td>11.27</td>\n      <td>11.80</td>\n      <td>5283459</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>7314 rows × 7 columns</p>\n</div>"
     },
     "execution_count": 2,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "data=pd.read_excel('data.xlsx')\n",
    "data"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "            date   open   high    low  close    volumn\n0     1992-11-17  76.00  76.50  61.90  73.50  13051800\n1     1992-11-18  70.00  87.00  70.00  85.10   8871100\n2     1992-11-19  86.00  93.50  80.00  88.20    650000\n3     1992-11-20  89.00  90.80  85.05  88.90   1305200\n4     1992-11-23  90.00  94.00  89.10  93.70    887100\n...          ...    ...    ...    ...    ...       ...\n7309  2023-06-05  11.25  11.40  11.03  11.39   3141326\n7310  2023-06-06  11.46  11.58  11.31  11.39   4408895\n7311  2023-06-07  11.26  11.40  11.16  11.24   4106022\n7312  2023-06-08  11.35  11.43  11.19  11.43   4149589\n7313  2023-06-09  11.40  11.86  11.27  11.80   5283459\n\n[7314 rows x 6 columns]",
      "text/html": "<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>date</th>\n      <th>open</th>\n      <th>high</th>\n      <th>low</th>\n      <th>close</th>\n      <th>volumn</th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <th>0</th>\n      <td>1992-11-17</td>\n      <td>76.00</td>\n      <td>76.50</td>\n      <td>61.90</td>\n      <td>73.50</td>\n      <td>13051800</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>1</th>\n      <td>1992-11-18</td>\n      <td>70.00</td>\n      <td>87.00</td>\n      <td>70.00</td>\n      <td>85.10</td>\n      <td>8871100</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>2</th>\n      <td>1992-11-19</td>\n      <td>86.00</td>\n      <td>93.50</td>\n      <td>80.00</td>\n      <td>88.20</td>\n      <td>650000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>3</th>\n      <td>1992-11-20</td>\n      <td>89.00</td>\n      <td>90.80</td>\n      <td>85.05</td>\n      <td>88.90</td>\n      <td>1305200</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>4</th>\n      <td>1992-11-23</td>\n      <td>90.00</td>\n      <td>94.00</td>\n      <td>89.10</td>\n      <td>93.70</td>\n      <td>887100</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>...</th>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7309</th>\n      <td>2023-06-05</td>\n      <td>11.25</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.03</td>\n      <td>11.39</td>\n      <td>3141326</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7310</th>\n      <td>2023-06-06</td>\n      <td>11.46</td>\n      <td>11.58</td>\n      <td>11.31</td>\n      <td>11.39</td>\n      <td>4408895</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7311</th>\n      <td>2023-06-07</td>\n      <td>11.26</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.16</td>\n      <td>11.24</td>\n      <td>4106022</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7312</th>\n      <td>2023-06-08</td>\n      <td>11.35</td>\n      <td>11.43</td>\n      <td>11.19</td>\n      <td>11.43</td>\n      <td>4149589</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7313</th>\n      <td>2023-06-09</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.86</td>\n      <td>11.27</td>\n      <td>11.80</td>\n      <td>5283459</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>7314 rows × 6 columns</p>\n</div>"
     },
     "execution_count": 3,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "data.drop(columns=data.columns[0],inplace=True)\n",
    "data"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "           date   open   high    low  close    volumn\n0    1992-11-17  76.00  76.50  61.90  73.50  13051800\n1    1992-11-18  70.00  87.00  70.00  85.10   8871100\n2    1992-11-19  86.00  93.50  80.00  88.20    650000\n3    1992-11-20  89.00  90.80  85.05  88.90   1305200\n4    1992-11-23  90.00  94.00  89.10  93.70    887100\n...         ...    ...    ...    ...    ...       ...\n7309 2023-06-05  11.25  11.40  11.03  11.39   3141326\n7310 2023-06-06  11.46  11.58  11.31  11.39   4408895\n7311 2023-06-07  11.26  11.40  11.16  11.24   4106022\n7312 2023-06-08  11.35  11.43  11.19  11.43   4149589\n7313 2023-06-09  11.40  11.86  11.27  11.80   5283459\n\n[7314 rows x 6 columns]",
      "text/html": "<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>date</th>\n      <th>open</th>\n      <th>high</th>\n      <th>low</th>\n      <th>close</th>\n      <th>volumn</th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <th>0</th>\n      <td>1992-11-17</td>\n      <td>76.00</td>\n      <td>76.50</td>\n      <td>61.90</td>\n      <td>73.50</td>\n      <td>13051800</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>1</th>\n      <td>1992-11-18</td>\n      <td>70.00</td>\n      <td>87.00</td>\n      <td>70.00</td>\n      <td>85.10</td>\n      <td>8871100</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>2</th>\n      <td>1992-11-19</td>\n      <td>86.00</td>\n      <td>93.50</td>\n      <td>80.00</td>\n      <td>88.20</td>\n      <td>650000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>3</th>\n      <td>1992-11-20</td>\n      <td>89.00</td>\n      <td>90.80</td>\n      <td>85.05</td>\n      <td>88.90</td>\n      <td>1305200</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>4</th>\n      <td>1992-11-23</td>\n      <td>90.00</td>\n      <td>94.00</td>\n      <td>89.10</td>\n      <td>93.70</td>\n      <td>887100</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>...</th>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7309</th>\n      <td>2023-06-05</td>\n      <td>11.25</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.03</td>\n      <td>11.39</td>\n      <td>3141326</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7310</th>\n      <td>2023-06-06</td>\n      <td>11.46</td>\n      <td>11.58</td>\n      <td>11.31</td>\n      <td>11.39</td>\n      <td>4408895</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7311</th>\n      <td>2023-06-07</td>\n      <td>11.26</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.16</td>\n      <td>11.24</td>\n      <td>4106022</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7312</th>\n      <td>2023-06-08</td>\n      <td>11.35</td>\n      <td>11.43</td>\n      <td>11.19</td>\n      <td>11.43</td>\n      <td>4149589</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7313</th>\n      <td>2023-06-09</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.86</td>\n      <td>11.27</td>\n      <td>11.80</td>\n      <td>5283459</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>7314 rows × 6 columns</p>\n</div>"
     },
     "execution_count": 4,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "data['date']=pd.to_datetime(data['date'],format='%Y-%m-%d')\n",
    "for i in data.columns[1:]:\n",
    "    data[i].astype(float)\n",
    "data"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "           date   open   high    low  close    volumn\n0    1992-11-17  76.00  76.50  61.90  73.50  13051800\n1    1992-11-18  70.00  87.00  70.00  85.10   8871100\n2    1992-11-19  86.00  93.50  80.00  88.20    650000\n3    1992-11-20  89.00  90.80  85.05  88.90   1305200\n4    1992-11-23  90.00  94.00  89.10  93.70    887100\n...         ...    ...    ...    ...    ...       ...\n7309 2023-06-05  11.25  11.40  11.03  11.39   3141326\n7310 2023-06-06  11.46  11.58  11.31  11.39   4408895\n7311 2023-06-07  11.26  11.40  11.16  11.24   4106022\n7312 2023-06-08  11.35  11.43  11.19  11.43   4149589\n7313 2023-06-09  11.40  11.86  11.27  11.80   5283459\n\n[7314 rows x 6 columns]",
      "text/html": "<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>date</th>\n      <th>open</th>\n      <th>high</th>\n      <th>low</th>\n      <th>close</th>\n      <th>volumn</th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <th>0</th>\n      <td>1992-11-17</td>\n      <td>76.00</td>\n      <td>76.50</td>\n      <td>61.90</td>\n      <td>73.50</td>\n      <td>13051800</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>1</th>\n      <td>1992-11-18</td>\n      <td>70.00</td>\n      <td>87.00</td>\n      <td>70.00</td>\n      <td>85.10</td>\n      <td>8871100</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>2</th>\n      <td>1992-11-19</td>\n      <td>86.00</td>\n      <td>93.50</td>\n      <td>80.00</td>\n      <td>88.20</td>\n      <td>650000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>3</th>\n      <td>1992-11-20</td>\n      <td>89.00</td>\n      <td>90.80</td>\n      <td>85.05</td>\n      <td>88.90</td>\n      <td>1305200</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>4</th>\n      <td>1992-11-23</td>\n      <td>90.00</td>\n      <td>94.00</td>\n      <td>89.10</td>\n      <td>93.70</td>\n      <td>887100</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>...</th>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7309</th>\n      <td>2023-06-05</td>\n      <td>11.25</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.03</td>\n      <td>11.39</td>\n      <td>3141326</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7310</th>\n      <td>2023-06-06</td>\n      <td>11.46</td>\n      <td>11.58</td>\n      <td>11.31</td>\n      <td>11.39</td>\n      <td>4408895</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7311</th>\n      <td>2023-06-07</td>\n      <td>11.26</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.16</td>\n      <td>11.24</td>\n      <td>4106022</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7312</th>\n      <td>2023-06-08</td>\n      <td>11.35</td>\n      <td>11.43</td>\n      <td>11.19</td>\n      <td>11.43</td>\n      <td>4149589</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7313</th>\n      <td>2023-06-09</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.86</td>\n      <td>11.27</td>\n      <td>11.80</td>\n      <td>5283459</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>7314 rows × 6 columns</p>\n</div>"
     },
     "execution_count": 5,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "data.sort_values(by='date',inplace=True)\n",
    "data"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "           date   open    high    low   close   volumn     dret1\n1    1992-11-18  70.00   87.00  70.00   85.10  8871100  0.146542\n2    1992-11-19  86.00   93.50  80.00   88.20   650000  0.035780\n3    1992-11-20  89.00   90.80  85.05   88.90  1305200  0.007905\n4    1992-11-23  90.00   94.00  89.10   93.70   887100  0.052586\n5    1992-11-24  94.00  117.00  94.00  115.00  1478100  0.204834\n...         ...    ...     ...    ...     ...      ...       ...\n7309 2023-06-05  11.25   11.40  11.03   11.39  3141326  0.009705\n7310 2023-06-06  11.46   11.58  11.31   11.39  4408895  0.000000\n7311 2023-06-07  11.26   11.40  11.16   11.24  4106022 -0.013257\n7312 2023-06-08  11.35   11.43  11.19   11.43  4149589  0.016763\n7313 2023-06-09  11.40   11.86  11.27   11.80  5283459  0.031858\n\n[7313 rows x 7 columns]",
      "text/html": "<div>\n<style scoped>\n    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n        vertical-align: middle;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n        vertical-align: top;\n    }\n\n    .dataframe thead th {\n        text-align: right;\n    }\n</style>\n<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n  <thead>\n    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n      <th></th>\n      <th>date</th>\n      <th>open</th>\n      <th>high</th>\n      <th>low</th>\n      <th>close</th>\n      <th>volumn</th>\n      <th>dret1</th>\n    </tr>\n  </thead>\n  <tbody>\n    <tr>\n      <th>1</th>\n      <td>1992-11-18</td>\n      <td>70.00</td>\n      <td>87.00</td>\n      <td>70.00</td>\n      <td>85.10</td>\n      <td>8871100</td>\n      <td>0.146542</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>2</th>\n      <td>1992-11-19</td>\n      <td>86.00</td>\n      <td>93.50</td>\n      <td>80.00</td>\n      <td>88.20</td>\n      <td>650000</td>\n      <td>0.035780</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>3</th>\n      <td>1992-11-20</td>\n      <td>89.00</td>\n      <td>90.80</td>\n      <td>85.05</td>\n      <td>88.90</td>\n      <td>1305200</td>\n      <td>0.007905</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>4</th>\n      <td>1992-11-23</td>\n      <td>90.00</td>\n      <td>94.00</td>\n      <td>89.10</td>\n      <td>93.70</td>\n      <td>887100</td>\n      <td>0.052586</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>5</th>\n      <td>1992-11-24</td>\n      <td>94.00</td>\n      <td>117.00</td>\n      <td>94.00</td>\n      <td>115.00</td>\n      <td>1478100</td>\n      <td>0.204834</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>...</th>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n      <td>...</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7309</th>\n      <td>2023-06-05</td>\n      <td>11.25</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.03</td>\n      <td>11.39</td>\n      <td>3141326</td>\n      <td>0.009705</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7310</th>\n      <td>2023-06-06</td>\n      <td>11.46</td>\n      <td>11.58</td>\n      <td>11.31</td>\n      <td>11.39</td>\n      <td>4408895</td>\n      <td>0.000000</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7311</th>\n      <td>2023-06-07</td>\n      <td>11.26</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.16</td>\n      <td>11.24</td>\n      <td>4106022</td>\n      <td>-0.013257</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7312</th>\n      <td>2023-06-08</td>\n      <td>11.35</td>\n      <td>11.43</td>\n      <td>11.19</td>\n      <td>11.43</td>\n      <td>4149589</td>\n      <td>0.016763</td>\n    </tr>\n    <tr>\n      <th>7313</th>\n      <td>2023-06-09</td>\n      <td>11.40</td>\n      <td>11.86</td>\n      <td>11.27</td>\n      <td>11.80</td>\n      <td>5283459</td>\n      <td>0.031858</td>\n    </tr>\n  </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>7313 rows × 7 columns</p>\n</div>"
     },
     "execution_count": 6,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "data['dret1']=np.log(data['close'])-np.log(data['close'].shift(periods=1))\n",
    "data.dropna(inplace=True)\n",
    "data"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stderr",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "C:\\Users\\ASUS\\AppData\\Local\\Temp\\ipykernel_7784\\958721504.py:4: UserWarning: Boolean Series key will be reindexed to match DataFrame index.\n",
      "  tmp=tmp[ind]\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "<Figure size 640x480 with 1 Axes>",
      "image/png": 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"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# ind = data['day'] >= pd.to_datetime('2011-01-01', format='%Y-%m-%d')\n",
    "ind=data['dret1']>=-0.1\n",
    "tmp = data[data['date'] >= pd.to_datetime('2011-01-01', format='%Y-%m-%d')]\n",
    "tmp=tmp[ind]\n",
    "r=tmp[tmp['date'] >= pd.to_datetime('2011-01-01', format='%Y-%m-%d')]['dret1'].values*100\n",
    "plt.plot(r)\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": "<Figure size 640x480 with 1 Axes>",
      "image/png": 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"
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# RiskMetrics方法\n",
    "l = np.fix(len(r)/3).astype(int)\n",
    "VaR_RM = np.zeros(len(r))\n",
    "qalpha = norm.ppf(0.05)\n",
    "for i in range(l, len(r)):\n",
    "    mhat, shat = norm.fit(r[i-50:i])\n",
    "    VaR_RM[i] = -(mhat + qalpha*shat)\n",
    "plt.plot(r)\n",
    "plt.plot(VaR_RM*-1)\n",
    "plt.savefig('riskmetrics.jpg')\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6908.662848580001\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4098.207272789474\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 3619.92223705974\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3264.7953601244785\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3507.733522100447\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3300.673035217736\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3258.5223305676645\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3114.006842520989\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3325.0646113040984\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2283.0155268104445\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 3031.075158013626\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2275.988013874283\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    147,   Neg. LLF: 2281.781358059039\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2275.9395024114247\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    168,   Neg. LLF: 2276.0169162054844\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2275.910955152286\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2275.9100558806877\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2275.9100081828446\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2275.910002534725\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    218,   Neg. LLF: 2275.9100025347207\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2275.910002534725\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 218\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A27EBC70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 58041.99290669697\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4038.85013042111\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 39803.852188960824\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4029.3775887509946\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3066.6154659228905\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3129.621941253963\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3153.457949716518\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3149.9751014551966\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3146.6043167836965\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2325.06250920987\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2287.5691621538044\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2280.2128425394544\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2278.1357202616373\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2278.169017227602\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2278.1550258362695\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2278.0748906780154\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2278.0744957252246\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2278.074493448622\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2278.0744934486256\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2278.074493448622\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38F36A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 59798.90362659274\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4046.320847198599\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 39772.57926725054\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4042.442188701708\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3078.917991229338\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3133.9986778907437\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3157.892606791939\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3144.682955653815\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3148.877459509137\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2360.4145087476923\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2281.184896520252\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2286.7900121580474\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2280.6927591820267\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2280.424712607777\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2280.419075167781\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2280.4185131193226\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2280.418448156042\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2280.4184431862395\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2280.4184431862427\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2280.4184431862395\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A51B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 58425.0062272502\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4046.6106065483546\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 39433.83887517535\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4060.5565158510767\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3101.6968621208125\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3137.847449792789\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3160.4188065040844\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3140.76697522637\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3149.8015774205714\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2387.2488262839706\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2282.452693281737\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2287.9817462681003\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2283.616780667976\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2282.4008218283207\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2282.307825740953\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2282.3076359333013\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2282.307622180388\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2282.307620804072\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2282.307620804071\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2282.307620804072\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A56C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7264.932951398958\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 46078.44633474057\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 4765.387763943621\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4309.750067771325\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 2494.7247602207167\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3176.4037395374057\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3168.7789633363645\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3212.466627837584\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3164.621625070528\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2370.322632587643\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2292.9493894861253\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2290.3618504097685\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2286.5065398758543\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2286.626333003339\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2286.489853401846\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2286.4888462932067\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2286.488806153974\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2286.4888013609693\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2286.4888013609684\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2286.4888013609693\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5E10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60173.55870924919\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4046.199739193238\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 39161.10045601589\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4017.600686722632\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3139.9223963909826\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3153.0785982494135\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3169.1660586614676\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3159.127940055135\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3180.794731740859\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2292.125949539785\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2300.3493007969732\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2288.6301188199322\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2294.1154526924233\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2288.5829047997386\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2288.5390581190254\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2288.5387438526877\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2288.5387166007386\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2288.538712857329\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2288.5387128573257\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2288.538712857329\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6440>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60200.107965447685\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4054.8162787489428\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 38524.25119707006\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4125.659287699955\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3713.7662195268113\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3166.553867154026\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3174.7592204443663\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3161.4643918883485\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3180.8815864840935\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2291.4985800667882\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2305.2400988601757\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2294.1088157301015\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2294.8410050507514\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2290.905565972769\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2290.9001186143155\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2290.899808287024\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2290.899742112238\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2290.8997340903065\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2290.8997340903156\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2290.8997340903065\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6AD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6965.010570716265\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4187.582358104481\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 3606.1227311981966\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3372.695656219006\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3555.58608166838\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3268.1779695196233\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3262.243983200253\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3160.456969467773\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3174.6618333021966\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2304.8006644359402\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2605.4064616474325\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2297.775503880933\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2299.236866630131\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2297.5533779242637\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2297.267065859012\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2297.22549631474\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2297.2238679692673\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2297.223848141158\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2297.2238405647536\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 2297.223840564755\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2297.2238405647536\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7345.980948423172\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 45604.39352782763\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 4781.776494185213\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4250.044071451323\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 2391.90080932195\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3190.047210867143\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3183.0018750024524\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3179.024827983144\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3168.5492276787927\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2357.769489339664\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2303.128731701994\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2305.709798351574\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2299.664957935136\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2299.8198878768526\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2299.6650062575636\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2299.633018439905\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2299.6327624483592\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2299.632751784287\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2299.632749149483\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 2299.632749149483\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2299.632749149483\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38F39D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6816.059649889385\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4181.306444741632\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3407.731466872531\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3189.5696355945165\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 13133.844532402594\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3332.3466868710766\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3146.510277646438\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3239.4498460646237\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3159.52159454894\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2310.794770101293\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2308.8763459537204\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2306.7571520515867\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2305.7192772765166\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2312.7650994037167\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2305.643201976635\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2305.642022610534\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2305.63823215518\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2305.6369720125167\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2305.6369713243657\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2305.6369713243657\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7400>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6870.146410724366\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4186.785235476875\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3398.723731514806\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3181.7910090621353\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 13097.130989336012\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3337.147448896188\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3142.6238186205137\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3242.979689958682\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3170.722119157408\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2313.8611245663733\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2310.5890776807487\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2324.087345335157\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2308.1345752215693\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2314.56319778242\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2308.042929238179\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2308.030726312797\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2308.0275991060034\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2308.0272093925428\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2308.0271889014466\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    219,   Neg. LLF: 2308.027188349262\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2308.027188349262\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 219\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5840>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6881.518778806827\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4186.983308110124\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3429.815809117095\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3215.447020454146\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 13109.405376636812\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3340.8043253641636\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3154.9312687483025\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3252.068850109288\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 2318.084239749756\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2334.7694283176897\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2316.9893584085257\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2310.774661297364\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2310.166755579687\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2310.1635020075673\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2310.2235645874707\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2310.093376935951\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2310.093364028974\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2310.0933626227184\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2310.093362622719\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2310.0933626227184\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6020>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6901.176379817592\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4184.618854455602\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3437.511219532945\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3220.5589584545323\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 4995.13880894783\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3349.4664816467416\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3158.5466834700046\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3254.253552422695\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 2322.757200222616\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2341.459364483825\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2318.9745141332623\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2313.6879421034855\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2312.396530509437\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2316.649302698437\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2314.296074321255\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2312.328611030124\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2312.3274287859404\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2312.3273807609457\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2312.3273807609403\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2312.3273807609457\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4370>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6923.673071233248\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4174.8368015410015\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3439.946193409544\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3217.9130359036963\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 4398.868993369074\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3365.437243286026\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3165.1159114657585\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3249.5809552841233\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 2325.6163741772534\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2341.6468928428485\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2321.175007956359\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2315.45413674029\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2314.9003944181486\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2320.6671030332086\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2315.0771974602976\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2314.8199103460865\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2314.8154098284135\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2314.815398265125\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2314.8153948869985\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    219,   Neg. LLF: 2314.8153948869985\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2314.8153948869985\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 219\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A77C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6945.903453471766\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4169.930273545585\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3444.202573550328\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3218.2759669616707\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 4058.0533026193393\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3384.761535872992\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3173.6258700198377\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3222.2624174526422\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3189.8623154465463\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2323.9890897723762\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2327.3985756714314\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2325.9067512555766\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2317.366835327306\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2322.2341342457385\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2317.4536131229197\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2317.242736202945\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2317.230387785522\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2317.230055225913\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2317.2300446098834\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    219,   Neg. LLF: 2317.23004460989\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2317.2300446098834\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 219\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7DC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6962.893908370769\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4174.379874526292\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3463.461743885123\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3225.5845345766916\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3729.369314904126\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3411.2906559400562\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3222.316695611079\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3182.311662317596\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3228.6290118217967\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2325.259045062935\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 3065.5648128121306\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2319.326739314036\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    147,   Neg. LLF: 2325.8279464094503\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2320.8114458467862\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2319.333831262762\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2319.2085900545476\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2319.2085013607593\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2319.2084960306556\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2319.208495475329\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2319.208495475329\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6560>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6982.819217474945\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4173.990486996946\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3465.8246872780487\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3219.369640445995\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3609.8430930918266\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3437.7826684596635\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3235.666327516699\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3187.9493627659303\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 2818.4152572240687\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2327.7834189890696\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 3090.478312944768\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2321.350617137254\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    147,   Neg. LLF: 2329.520665914742\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2321.6995321626227\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2321.2720554387824\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2321.2242046933643\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2321.224116730409\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2321.2241130607317\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2321.224113060738\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2321.2241130607317\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4F70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7001.372065672439\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4174.146184974208\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3207.9450755169873\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2424.552465909942\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 2903.5529871012295\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3288.0053489218562\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3304.425971336156\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3154.508875106281\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 2329.9613134864903\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2529.565775931129\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2332.975509363432\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2329.2813040980996\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2323.429693732235\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2323.3372191510834\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    168,   Neg. LLF: 2324.9804533393594\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2323.2672830139104\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2323.2419538692675\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2323.2416149331157\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2323.241587157151\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    219,   Neg. LLF: 2323.241584503814\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    228,   Neg. LLF: 2323.241584503822\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2323.241584503814\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 228\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7A60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7032.428015407672\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4174.634726900734\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5085.172567823585\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3654.187859831218\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3355.866159631573\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3281.0266673596143\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3264.7113669633036\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2350.9144520847067\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2336.8137359779184\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3095.009681836173\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2328.351693400554\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2331.8530393261717\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2325.99644889933\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2325.3620190405677\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2335.0379057717323\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2325.2938507133076\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2325.283895797941\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2325.2838359580246\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2325.283834708132\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2325.283834708125\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2325.283834708132\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4B20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7059.138070882527\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4180.022196677176\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5140.84110724791\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3661.057867636699\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3361.123793322758\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3288.7139978237874\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3269.2581482566866\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2350.5990751276436\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2339.4572580561216\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3099.847747140723\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2330.5928907610855\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2333.8416435139347\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2328.235923447435\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2327.6361525746534\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2336.263685802004\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2327.5766053020675\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2327.5615959002116\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2327.5614896674815\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2327.5614885947452\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2327.5614885947434\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2327.5614885947452\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38F3C40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7115.195560412162\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4177.683648381449\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5192.239228820705\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3659.7370612448894\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3364.8908581924384\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3301.5291631095606\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3269.309505146413\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2351.939090870077\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2341.8144088921226\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3103.0274659293364\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2332.6577840087684\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2335.6354391576783\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2330.252876381873\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2329.6951662203637\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2337.730313875345\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2329.6433555687827\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2329.622798394287\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2329.6226071512483\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2329.622605497464\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2329.622605497456\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2329.622605497464\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A46A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7182.22971128593\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4168.738718192155\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5147.170808293186\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3636.434733663681\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3363.800673897016\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3322.834577956548\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3267.4946022232457\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2353.8357334877624\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2343.37655952697\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3101.1169992703726\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2334.474653292661\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2336.9637988432614\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2331.9807344889205\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2331.443935527347\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2338.515928246042\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2331.4106816257236\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2331.375902335852\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2331.3757955541796\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2331.3757946667965\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2331.3757946667965\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6EC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7061.843036298795\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4204.909486225827\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5043.251694140172\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3692.967455416728\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3369.376838787638\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3301.0438724750184\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3278.4142772510363\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2357.563093021788\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2346.662164529196\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3111.041564246876\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2337.7299340294285\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2340.0858974998528\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2335.496075997053\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2334.6233339613914\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2342.840454421481\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2334.554553922735\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2334.542650419077\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2334.5425769685353\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2334.5425751969556\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2334.542575196956\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2334.5425751969556\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5FC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7074.6339553956\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4197.849990956533\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5131.51413464008\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3687.996497738786\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3373.5094074297795\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3308.22029625093\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3278.9098271350094\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2358.7347459050598\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2348.599146567664\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3113.052943442963\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2339.6373210118054\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2341.8481590797896\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2337.272860614619\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2336.5442647879217\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2343.7817346973575\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2336.487989315874\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2336.46789596612\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2336.467712472053\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2336.467708307927\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2336.4677083079214\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2336.467708307927\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7048.300742342526\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4210.796774148348\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5305.562731326481\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3705.708536987574\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3383.071358721196\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3314.8338221707554\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3284.3705817859764\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2357.5185606460473\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2351.4998571434144\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3119.021465724657\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2342.1977237797346\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2344.2373245226404\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2339.844956027637\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2339.129919554458\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2346.1581310903816\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2339.0745924559887\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2339.0571821804942\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2339.057081539093\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2339.0570781214847\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2339.0570781214747\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2339.0570781214847\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7025.770150741602\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4209.190707346025\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5386.150723384235\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3706.750781488714\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3388.2620534650387\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3321.2362365018507\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3288.871944565566\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2358.5054203697255\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2344.950979795177\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3148.2239244836837\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2343.341162976709\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2344.3825327323825\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2341.270754508387\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2353.1816553670087\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 2341.165249538266\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2341.1625467316244\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2341.1625214587766\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2341.1625200841286\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2341.1625200841277\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2341.1625200841286\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7400>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7067.103003767139\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4194.022098756099\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5695.51932014792\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3688.536164860955\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3392.1223589667034\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3324.6845751451538\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3295.345143033951\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2361.013699029526\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2346.924869077233\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3142.9370784060748\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2346.144718619091\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2346.125914397272\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2342.925041866579\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2371.584317457875\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2342.855936654155\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2342.850478369569\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2342.850196067068\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2342.850160681168\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2342.850159385819\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2342.8501593858223\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2342.850159385819\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5BD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6932.744361945553\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4274.507640994345\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 4577.307886602408\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3610.0430152028866\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3423.284744833145\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3302.4673107735707\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3321.553752624892\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2376.0919314602465\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2358.4204208853243\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3132.7823883344918\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2355.154454404504\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2351.908147281971\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2349.7910855184564\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2347.1844018493266\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2351.4367055718635\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2347.044871072007\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2347.0322585102595\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2347.0321046074605\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2347.0321030076734\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2347.032103007676\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2347.0321030076734\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5270>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7002.521480965727\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4267.266578457711\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5341.91603288841\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3669.9089231001735\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3415.2188755984657\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3309.1232524122497\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3324.811584070023\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2373.8361367901052\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2361.0785121362437\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3132.60253029999\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2357.2294178715306\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2349.204691067296\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2352.175131361918\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2359.934036429394\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2353.4079144842726\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 2348.972232431486\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2348.9708333313224\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2348.970823578761\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2348.970820837276\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2348.9708208372776\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2348.970820837276\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5C30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7037.634305840925\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4258.932074300446\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5530.198799416507\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3739.363123294358\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3403.29337535786\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3318.9868659432286\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3304.209428869278\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2377.4564225250506\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2362.914174833896\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3131.3338873316648\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2359.1110127911325\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2352.887259001846\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3143.4636670324476\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2350.7555475423324\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2356.1606815213436\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2350.700989842948\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2350.6543829501406\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2350.6538197826476\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2350.653759712271\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2350.653757658096\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2350.6537576581013\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2350.653757658096\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4280>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7057.689755661618\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4262.950386946955\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5623.693649218648\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3740.9640053891217\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3407.8267103971903\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3323.844304926716\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3308.5935304273594\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2377.220622524608\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2365.3781959439434\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3135.8821317132206\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2360.1469654047014\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2354.444923082421\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3151.7250755289188\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2352.8510598432463\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2359.8273043993013\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2352.7687848646383\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2352.75125417695\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2352.751129403804\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2352.7511264691548\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2352.7511264691493\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2352.7511264691548\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38F1F00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7007.239718078857\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4298.0134396816275\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 4415.174702837343\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3560.478102392157\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3443.874825747357\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3302.0142960265016\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3350.5286663528723\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2408.3009744174788\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2366.9490303635057\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3185.6608407669664\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2364.562676399615\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2356.4525125970854\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2366.643232061182\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2357.026624852636\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2360.101829092473\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2356.121050166169\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2356.119129487538\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2356.1186148491997\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2356.118518443376\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2356.1185014927014\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2356.1185014926987\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2356.1185014927014\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6020>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6898.973212089034\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4349.944618408559\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3642.781765012005\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2707.233955423945\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3337.666170315334\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3293.2215419163595\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3326.6628534932306\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2393.354353762968\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2369.5196829002607\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3256.348702021587\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2363.4485416507564\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2365.1395757763576\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2360.3746836239084\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2365.777232587974\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2360.88342330466\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2360.23634877058\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2360.235551844134\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2360.23555424238\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2360.2355249238126\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2360.235524923809\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2360.2355249238126\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6CE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6896.108262527206\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4350.385265886666\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3710.4692591824005\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2810.797354622649\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3346.1777747613387\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3293.9095123703046\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3328.8551172411094\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2424.353281042652\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2371.37060220684\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3255.756832871291\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2365.759507935301\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2367.316649442838\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2362.3874156236307\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2370.4313356898047\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2362.4985295673796\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2362.270256109149\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2362.2685855411987\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2362.2685581293526\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2362.2685542137096\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2362.2685542137115\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2362.2685542137096\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4910>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6890.170499495085\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4349.846704521153\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3710.845144255899\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2989.8542655594183\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3358.9064672979903\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3297.8779374444002\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3329.406266659557\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2411.9573719072228\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2373.4852837488825\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3260.0202881907735\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2367.8319540019766\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2369.3951070325493\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2364.349985454726\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2374.4687509434007\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2364.412335958412\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2364.2346925680185\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2364.2322848799836\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2364.2322460956575\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2364.2322401345277\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2364.2322401345264\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2364.2322401345277\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6980>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6883.454650595312\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4351.212070149386\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3716.3734086604527\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3190.8617257246797\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3367.3196053192123\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3303.560831316418\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3337.8182015203984\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 2480.2478440592463\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2376.1408873952255\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3255.6159600662486\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2369.839543895713\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2371.63150424952\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2366.50703569347\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2380.9262596824433\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2366.5065046875447\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2366.3987630120782\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2366.394571275564\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2366.394482088711\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2366.394467991764\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2366.394467991764\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2366.394467991764\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5090>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6900.614579972812\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4344.993004634505\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 4655.000728530631\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3565.4038470195146\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3461.903088319933\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3321.404140566739\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3377.8006442931214\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2423.113087112295\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2379.177117866702\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3213.569849204927\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2376.698503317109\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2371.1776787870335\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2396.3571320958927\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2368.391296931014\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2368.2059568926743\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2371.984183044404\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2368.198802207673\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2368.1973234578813\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2368.1973213247447\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2368.19732132475\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2368.1973213247447\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4400>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6871.36064084343\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4360.787283384041\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3674.1404638184736\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2801.4926822020034\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3351.1998221401914\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3312.7704250379657\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3343.6395503726326\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2401.4992129342227\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2380.643136439168\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3260.1151968814447\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2373.567083825324\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2375.648505537062\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2370.79990787536\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2484.6010809108334\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2370.7391799125503\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2370.7130625347104\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2370.704957819332\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2370.704533236216\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2370.7042919017804\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2370.7042666528646\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2370.7042621427945\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    240,   Neg. LLF: 2370.7042621427904\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2370.7042621427945\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 240\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A49A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6908.867220147733\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4369.856772954019\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3753.4020475486655\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3141.347615659437\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3375.589870472922\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3313.6946668149467\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3328.056307214307\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2392.4842935596453\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2383.841086266249\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3253.73843098851\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2376.3120202552554\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2376.1512150046406\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2373.3137170392283\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2429.232324441813\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2373.394804965944\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2373.2308829021176\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2373.2240931812894\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2373.224047291952\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2373.2240201877794\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2373.22401973649\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2373.22401973649\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3881810>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6843.285060118544\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4387.201647343789\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3740.1283589010804\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2745.5482910186365\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3360.046932715126\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3316.9597911771307\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3351.225551560442\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2395.957300066646\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2386.6588211063718\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3260.6684094103584\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2378.924411873064\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2379.0012050858404\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2376.049277870779\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2392.8605733573995\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2376.2647082164576\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2375.958504651053\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2375.9547468787687\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2375.954483554017\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2375.954289998376\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2375.9542899983917\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2375.954289998376\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882DA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6863.098067788684\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4378.584532816399\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3774.4072328515613\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3147.51951708856\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3380.124936772345\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3318.6408211645803\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3333.901651120861\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2395.2463976786235\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2388.6220718363784\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3255.7830355475558\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2380.763913754075\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2379.9260437965722\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2377.7668577719783\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2428.067711129797\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2377.842313341741\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2377.692094654677\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2377.6823688868326\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2377.6822701142955\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2377.682255507548\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2377.682253589657\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2377.6822535896627\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2377.682253589657\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5390>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6877.112811410316\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4368.904659358808\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 4265.639843676993\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2466.139510148034\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3092.265034174694\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3335.1183495313962\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3357.1894788111504\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3272.8724214746912\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2393.0678886621135\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 3196.2703681356734\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2393.5784696767273\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2384.8064240372605\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2382.248771601017\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2379.5595024686836\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2379.6171331432442\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2381.6849031523334\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2379.3969198726104\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2379.395756504556\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2379.395739371986\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2379.3957392255215\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2379.3957392255215\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38F3C70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6858.374771726379\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4373.797208502097\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3977.535915635341\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2671.9290197703\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3343.9645151501427\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3329.049919790784\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3359.070925395679\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2399.983233111796\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2392.7596909705144\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3242.025554226673\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2384.6456265192587\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2386.073241492255\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2381.7447849664363\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3189.6893787385816\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2381.7008229388134\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2381.667736247457\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2381.667569266996\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2381.666361481177\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2381.666359562674\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2381.666359562684\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2381.666359562674\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6DA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6762.889328261118\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4439.764585122202\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3808.9073850410005\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2436.939175245335\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 2993.607932054981\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3346.938040063179\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3377.1824304144266\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3273.615601563838\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3287.1881185596976\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2421.6656226912555\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2398.039857668984\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3197.72541266173\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2385.9291226700793\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2386.297910423049\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2388.0534707687148\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2386.4317371958887\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2385.757368080738\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2385.756287602898\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2385.755450219569\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2385.7554386051097\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2385.75543683484\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 2385.7554368348383\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2385.75543683484\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A40A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6793.545548628883\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4432.671233043176\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3865.288208819911\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2516.3806588261095\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3263.357117671082\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3327.9402799471036\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3355.7641943886665\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 2398.4236861444697\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3144.361483446004\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2395.5507803209257\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2393.7051302458194\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2390.5853332861125\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2387.692379612745\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2387.6615055494162\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2389.7632755945865\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2387.578859968493\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2387.575079651663\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2387.5749561072894\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2387.5747944601117\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 2387.574793885227\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2387.574793885227\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7A90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6779.135757332247\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4436.5143401737805\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3854.99136261242\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2509.30286593822\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3251.786674269485\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3331.1896450174327\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3367.9326009871456\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 2401.7029901043697\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3149.4835603994748\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2397.9661444873886\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2395.6938785813018\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2392.80002304763\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2389.8765123522844\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2389.813709423077\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2392.21858125383\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2389.7483475756094\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2389.7461952888552\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2389.745633532234\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2389.745549583151\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 2389.7455462850226\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 2389.7455456977705\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2389.7455456977705\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7880>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6805.441817646222\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4428.96905552471\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3858.4237524753057\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2685.8420353665215\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3363.736021941744\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3328.8716951764636\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3366.5736358705726\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2442.023306696848\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2401.7966928053147\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3299.646058290357\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2394.897713614724\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2396.6516225529335\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2391.658067228499\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2396.2000627469115\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2392.5095975603463\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2391.5312152189927\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2391.529686239236\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2391.528279842869\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2391.5282050857786\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2391.528202950418\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2391.528202950417\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2391.528202950418\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A67A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6825.23927071119\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4440.389851639052\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3858.055395743242\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2652.65612732003\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3360.9093535738502\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3333.880613867282\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3372.7206077730925\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2420.093306118305\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2405.3200760235923\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3295.3955002632492\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2397.0892877862016\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2398.8129136884263\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2394.113182094\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2398.627774939939\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2395.0550997413156\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2393.9789197343503\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2393.9773441464663\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2393.9752294979407\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2393.9751427569195\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2393.9751356921283\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2393.975135692126\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2393.9751356921283\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6560>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6874.427925728678\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4439.230185950197\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3860.0185244174972\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2711.068021993551\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3375.885629222658\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3340.3043132288376\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3375.0624225188635\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2423.5280246795105\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2407.252891645771\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3294.4505130409807\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2399.2105661943306\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2401.0166041922175\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2396.215319039684\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2403.45292663206\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2396.4312289049694\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2396.1088687517513\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2396.106880324854\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2396.106473395031\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2396.106231081362\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2396.1062299006576\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2396.106229900652\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2396.1062299006576\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3881AE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6877.388177537906\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4433.199552372747\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3829.4784185122344\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2888.1163903552406\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3396.754942295527\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3346.0822684436334\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3377.6353910519492\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2431.8907049254503\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2408.5681585367047\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3298.758072362389\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2401.440263070328\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2403.1125204162813\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2398.019853360225\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2406.1195548971236\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2398.1835428503873\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2397.9148914830366\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2397.9117098789575\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2397.9116872079194\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2397.911678485943\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2397.911678026413\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2397.911678026413\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38823E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6877.414446341384\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4453.144971244113\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3835.8314659882135\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2727.3078078682584\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3385.8530346382076\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3348.464094141944\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3382.178118594452\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2421.9894367026054\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2411.89432346777\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3292.469441894271\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2403.3701320937835\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2405.0646253679197\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2400.4559992791847\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2411.316084160011\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2400.4872411577235\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2400.367197738109\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2400.3641337404715\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2400.3639105604543\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2400.3633923726256\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2400.3633914027705\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2400.3633914027705\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882C50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 6909.527095901799\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4445.77059415107\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3807.517418194987\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3002.5234775230438\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3409.353134862325\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3350.437469731841\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3381.4148425862513\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2433.5781428729615\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2412.7231831126537\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3302.2250054051747\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2405.54832943632\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2407.0875675134657\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2402.0932313494304\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2410.41576455832\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2402.1363131220683\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2402.0011290695334\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2401.9974114254355\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2401.99737029381\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2401.997348975189\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2401.9973483985204\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2401.9973483985204\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882350>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62356.51417959569\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48813.912481479536\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 4976.3591002273315\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4404.173692050177\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 2423.4630793330157\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3396.2452022144334\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3306.4750611940326\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3463.7843398457235\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3281.593639787011\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2411.3628955336935\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 3178.476609567613\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2405.2856974071424\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2405.170051380016\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2404.984546946153\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2404.92775173034\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2404.9265162185866\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2404.9264041373563\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2404.926363536152\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2404.9263635361585\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2404.926363536152\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882380>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60273.49296831382\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 47267.762868069425\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 4976.496840725625\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4322.062198874318\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 2615.9500002755885\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3324.7464947874114\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3318.632683229831\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3307.651405651304\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3327.0500779828317\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2424.55493121751\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2463.013800062131\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2417.446387436399\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2412.9704492492287\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2411.697020818311\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2411.6955035123083\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2411.694155999107\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2411.6936273113183\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2411.693601440129\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2411.6936008801786\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2411.6936008801786\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A27E8970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 59453.72203948442\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 47442.256017428765\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 5138.855999487603\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4232.111871065474\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 2491.741585752197\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3375.407432862948\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3329.6673903078945\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3333.442133644504\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3287.1538372653404\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2425.117145494248\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2419.602900617407\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 3170.096478741244\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2414.5728823360223\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2414.2378053090424\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2414.220913126589\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2414.219306225806\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2414.217346053911\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2414.2173284522405\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2414.217327578087\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2414.217327578087\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38F3C70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61106.47223451957\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48042.28478294505\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 5236.591049630987\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4216.982886840347\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 2450.055525725731\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3379.4263870149252\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3325.9180264325514\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3431.205288120486\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3241.430850024635\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 3323.0783823965658\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2424.2513919012563\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2420.016726612412\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2417.5611237834646\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2417.5348065604476\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    168,   Neg. LLF: 2417.5402311595967\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2417.526692661879\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2417.525648470113\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2417.5256409331355\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2417.5256404335364\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2417.5256404335364\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880700>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61328.37396861373\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4440.217003476561\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 42553.662895771544\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4149.724664697833\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3015.8780142886953\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3294.101876179572\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3344.257041052394\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3360.76812146665\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3358.0539484707233\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 3268.3987806976493\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2427.876735714274\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 3227.0107637693736\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2421.3395155973676\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2421.3508372149004\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2421.283718423593\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2421.169649949469\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2421.1342892169123\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2421.133927368781\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2421.133916314114\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2421.133915293817\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2421.13391529382\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2421.133915293817\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61496.63156736451\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48670.421003371084\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 5267.655895801051\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4272.457621187344\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 2445.308901983885\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3381.8777192531716\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3333.451381519017\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3545.7029184597413\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3289.6352543937955\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2429.6048676215114\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 3195.927426723479\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2427.2758310072077\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2423.1795767686135\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2430.528728284344\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2423.1490367513734\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2423.1484238888365\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2423.148406200886\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    198,   Neg. LLF: 2423.1484062008876\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2423.148406200886\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 198\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880F40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61609.093310563374\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48422.4004495979\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 5289.817826015874\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4253.995042915682\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 2452.37544457869\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3379.2740367800484\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3336.4281542480094\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3510.2404869269617\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3275.670833012691\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2534.147594757318\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2432.7738890935116\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2427.8940400016795\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2425.204058410606\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2425.1616839529997\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    168,   Neg. LLF: 2425.1566794806463\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    178,   Neg. LLF: 2425.1575470270373\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2425.1541484835466\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2425.1541398474355\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    208,   Neg. LLF: 2425.1541398474374\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2425.1541398474355\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 208\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7A00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61506.536022082706\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48290.59682117903\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 5301.766151146306\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4241.074627655726\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 2455.6947010035365\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3394.6948135169987\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3339.0086625605127\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3506.1803158302\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3278.4131572117353\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2448.7633718619118\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2431.437142618342\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2433.632245049169\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2427.308819373401\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2427.2775737134016\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    168,   Neg. LLF: 2427.2849489497057\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2427.2742296761226\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2427.2740791528713\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2427.274077143472\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    208,   Neg. LLF: 2427.274077143468\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2427.274077143472\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 208\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4D90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62217.69011904103\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48670.41476554446\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 5286.020466588228\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4282.357714776086\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 2471.479113832026\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3340.778231745929\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3360.602881326826\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3366.7939883807967\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3358.541666359361\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2510.399076039893\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2445.090723318793\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2437.9901686650974\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2434.7581964953424\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2431.21016800368\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2435.9596857682245\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2431.1933295950985\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2431.1895393397263\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2431.1894972061245\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2431.189492201894\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    219,   Neg. LLF: 2431.189492201895\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2431.189492201894\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 219\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A48E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7000.398494680479\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4625.505329490224\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3973.8391077576953\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3651.8346761912067\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3592.677268259721\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3427.971647783693\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3441.5179802899056\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3356.3118290078655\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2543.0746480171483\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2449.5009010306358\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3256.7768875428596\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2441.3264074429853\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2438.5880775170426\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2436.699881405206\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2440.1362125574724\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2436.653247509047\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2436.645223606477\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2436.631891672967\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2436.63089443215\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2436.630851238943\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2436.630850590395\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2436.630850590395\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A68F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7647.342710584294\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48777.186808341336\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 5140.90953400517\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4302.534937498878\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3420.818446891559\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3200.6038486488287\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3335.522662513887\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3359.148020402128\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 3347.395172108827\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2460.9920769024743\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2447.7430423434416\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2441.211276688746\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2439.251635855588\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2438.9677899514713\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2438.9552903137946\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2438.953850466556\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2438.9526958708298\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2438.9526729483523\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2438.9526703964716\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    218,   Neg. LLF: 2438.9526703964666\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2438.9526703964716\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 218\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6E30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60397.51093585075\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4551.138233247568\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     36,   Neg. LLF: 41710.65412951296\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 4145.397325284019\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3199.2107903835067\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3328.22289709534\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3361.206851404394\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3357.8276893090633\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3366.1646997042662\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 3302.646465749347\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2441.468333747245\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2446.5159912233175\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2441.83896635527\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2443.6561465996183\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2440.984550037977\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2440.97844009607\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2440.9779141155104\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2440.977849371655\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2440.9778493716617\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2440.977849371655\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A27EBA30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7116.5551991413395\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4663.3009909599\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3893.821894903992\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3611.378820711082\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3724.6621874432967\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3485.380105217536\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3363.46092696912\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3390.1878849848945\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2529.291392546804\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2461.4377251829137\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2454.5193916119706\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2449.237602297643\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2451.3712778513013\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2446.335912910842\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2449.37892230492\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2446.833552009676\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2446.241404997377\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2446.2413290794225\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2446.241320845337\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2446.2413208453363\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2446.241320845337\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A64D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7474.0017499053665\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4667.614718540082\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3923.5161039045392\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 3576.3980038790583\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3914.1488725397867\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3473.7478287751273\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3359.5374661996752\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3399.53508201596\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3381.4379413645993\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2474.1227268973325\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2456.0478050109596\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2454.1417571741276\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2450.530366677742\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2449.959460194391\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2449.7974138984628\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2452.821381661067\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2449.7711498602794\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2449.769507959644\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2449.769500506941\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2449.7695005069427\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2449.769500506941\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7A00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8096.128592996152\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4657.444534501647\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3546.494801052515\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2473.593915356172\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3705.1855397038125\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3957.571102811201\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3453.3604607228426\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3542.032841532506\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2537.8066362686086\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 3291.3132621348013\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2463.5431940273766\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2460.7345987082917\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2454.84708612575\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2455.02398099313\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2454.864787176109\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2456.0543840350233\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2454.790356570641\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2454.7872328870085\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2454.787174812882\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 2454.787174304857\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2454.787174304857\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7EB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7352.085936931439\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4634.187093242928\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 4525.562229325828\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2780.0578209482806\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3127.8155831232184\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3428.7819061159926\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3663.543289514649\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3393.978158363033\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3344.7185555796336\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2474.2563700112823\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3356.6032762645027\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2485.220087005308\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2465.390332987351\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2459.3621708177143\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2465.273677761206\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2487.1403260714105\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2459.154515617083\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2459.1454052098416\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2459.1428719910764\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2459.142743089308\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2459.1427316107274\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 2459.142731151466\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2459.142731151466\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6E30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7135.472683454704\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5081.333439615767\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 2536.6143620022954\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2696.1423239685064\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3459.0303270490667\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 4012.0660607448085\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3768.536796090729\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 2673.919673150732\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2784.469855233273\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2478.2180732872894\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3317.01533177878\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2469.4202650295083\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2467.2971979586946\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2463.6356368173465\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2463.573077204269\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2463.583974450374\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2463.5628671236154\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2463.5615454652843\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2463.561383075513\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2463.5613777337685\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2463.5613742190453\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    240,   Neg. LLF: 2463.5613742190408\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2463.5613742190453\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 240\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883B20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7018.394635082704\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5069.963477536618\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 2817.5443375797336\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2545.6158218401397\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3803.747251741428\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3641.8976823322723\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3438.308420548877\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3567.6159917753166\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2476.8993727982197\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2473.840192171527\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2471.649976558336\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2468.79820314069\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2484.66403450975\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2466.4623395873696\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2472.393348236389\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2466.771992966534\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2466.356322486121\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2466.3537307822794\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2466.353551359315\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2466.3535464909487\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2466.353546490945\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2466.3535464909487\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882EF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7012.832663608159\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4761.916708209083\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 2617.7264493980965\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3431.3981752478503\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3824.027902960225\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3756.203902453899\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3428.3945523897937\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3544.252615292731\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2493.8728536670646\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2481.082914639078\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3436.9291232595533\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2474.516550000357\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2470.8103134059097\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2468.887870449102\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2481.177677294595\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2471.041591713422\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2468.821162012659\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2468.8177534187585\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2468.8176858421575\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2468.8176677259144\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2468.8176677259125\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2468.8176677259144\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882380>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7090.1432093667245\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4937.929786050137\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 2992.6477563163735\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2510.896154465623\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3379.279096221284\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3797.705471496325\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3419.872630598648\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3401.948809887317\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3407.595201494446\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2486.7961172828345\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3345.367766783644\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2478.410572614085\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2478.375311162527\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2473.4345087363017\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2473.3808874103197\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2485.758155987509\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2473.3736868733868\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2473.346890456784\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2473.3464201509123\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2473.346373499201\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2473.3463662823365\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 2473.346365617063\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2473.346365617063\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38831F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7042.980724081156\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4998.073001498883\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3137.8380983066254\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2530.6019096668742\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3642.715638145897\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3744.2295482063046\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3561.466443331476\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3381.406009219813\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 2524.2032127627317\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 3353.10315300442\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2497.55868911536\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2481.011802670414\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 3442.413041498276\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2479.7021978923103\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2476.7978846142487\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2475.9798983731603\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2478.180275534736\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2475.9751456991744\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2475.9744789645356\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2475.9744782435946\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2475.9744782435946\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38818A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7074.441626142454\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4967.103923703771\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3809.4172978194033\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2581.384588960459\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3565.7956304803506\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3508.9722204475274\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3561.805899922698\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3400.605411117611\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3482.7853595543893\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2483.0033490755022\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5550.938411335447\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2493.631741214673\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2478.945211502942\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2478.512982805227\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2479.973099876143\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2478.507720960175\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2478.476540707199\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2478.47587798341\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2478.4758779834283\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2478.47587798341\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3881AE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7080.191558815879\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4985.6404528420335\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3812.131864809695\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2638.277698913866\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3525.3030481655587\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3499.8246373024135\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3586.5706849087064\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3398.3211719734554\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3498.2109865405746\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2486.6895803396255\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5721.488177714202\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2507.3985635861545\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2481.0580582974644\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2481.050820549518\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2481.9986760720453\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2482.1731365392016\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2480.9784073974656\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2480.978292919969\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2480.9782917911257\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2480.978291791118\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2480.9782917911257\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3881330>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7085.08687642939\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5013.263519687524\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3242.0101475936476\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2546.1372080066158\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3631.7683093325513\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3613.729875921161\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3627.163529399597\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3386.903767927541\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 2583.033186802542\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 3363.6320308280174\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 15011.769030518019\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2491.5647691153436\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2483.9895083166257\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2486.3038664873393\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2483.8906737157677\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2483.518236252108\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2483.516596794673\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2483.517088484321\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2483.5159909807007\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2483.515664295668\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2483.515662769088\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 2483.5156627690876\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2483.515662769088\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882620>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7100.882780306329\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5028.762573765733\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 2971.6790416358817\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2515.143515778276\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3760.1578873120634\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3533.557066023777\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3623.5242745784276\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3388.261932804217\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 15352.967446746028\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 3295.403159408418\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 10730.604881686706\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2494.1791965360717\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2486.0705392640257\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2492.8960439267667\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2489.504704560709\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2486.2376092394343\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2486.064484532452\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2485.980074514712\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2485.976323153052\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2485.9762693888315\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2485.976240383421\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 2485.97624038342\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2485.976240383421\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38F3430>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7112.307224124708\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5043.57866801988\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3040.1070163032864\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2529.656412614895\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3534.801251250478\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3465.1020434710263\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3721.5578106969956\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3384.2237583585356\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2510.6988372023584\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 3335.6963954798157\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2497.402352282331\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2488.633480420744\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2493.2416948792943\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2488.7423558433125\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2490.736193699651\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2488.4163964644877\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2488.41672376224\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2488.412284523289\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2488.4119834177354\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2488.411983417736\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2488.4119834177354\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882CE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7115.947291778422\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5028.673844276142\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3059.724518952794\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2572.187974092318\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3419.587296810246\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3661.4746269573316\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3579.4193722466493\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3364.4310717821827\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2503.402930135988\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2495.528548182438\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2497.1370381993534\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2492.3801538205407\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2492.1076632838067\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2490.925562221939\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2494.0077231134696\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2490.94894270847\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2490.877783570936\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2490.876618491452\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2490.876494631765\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2490.8764747369232\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2490.876474736927\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2490.8764747369232\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880E50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7132.002325346706\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5002.089273166396\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3011.2619978088987\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2552.34650071859\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3711.110182838518\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3514.233864226203\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3896.279448020547\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3414.8450000946004\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 16599.04312810954\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 3383.7248311964286\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 12602.014183273086\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2502.7041044854586\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2494.7825684420923\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2494.255733136677\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2494.1549123097116\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2495.766092183492\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2495.456839354726\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2494.1233873350902\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2494.121198487831\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2494.121166183706\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2494.1211635500176\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 2494.121163550025\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2494.1211635500176\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883B50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7148.543078829992\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5007.087419228543\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 2946.7521008669896\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2525.7282213576377\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3661.3789300510907\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3582.567140044289\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3577.2439948126357\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3392.213794664569\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3291.5542547202267\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2501.1945701183495\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3473.439830869739\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2527.4626791201417\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2497.172966544933\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2496.5152093296856\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2496.3727895904685\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2497.3549511147276\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2496.369769795805\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2496.36147368117\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2496.361453521109\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2496.361453521115\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2496.361453521109\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3881CC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7153.439949848611\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5021.329705770879\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 2884.7589482751655\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2536.274218049409\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3648.262437935305\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3655.5745763426494\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3550.3352840996586\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3381.8513540762806\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2530.9516110648083\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2505.3259009296135\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3269.1362043582285\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2505.137297567335\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2513.59329201681\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2498.8372162920978\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2501.323179511574\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2500.0809667554813\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2498.7322761501737\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2498.7257868102756\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2498.725684017606\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2498.725669080268\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2498.7256690802637\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2498.725669080268\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A27EAB30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7159.596035700035\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5045.782038203137\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3815.9234804975486\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2602.362166497083\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3606.533382678879\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3525.9696492331414\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3733.7895505673696\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3421.6925855831214\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 15801.001237795483\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2558.536259507033\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2518.125656767568\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2508.090899377003\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 3278.1550813872554\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2501.9490479322367\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2507.616458717453\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2502.5234043822256\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2501.8860328071114\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2501.8742215956727\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2501.874174439048\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2501.874168217943\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2501.8741682179457\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2501.874168217943\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38776D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7162.067169654461\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5051.731081927305\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 2942.3902251921045\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2564.308412862084\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3637.222242506382\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3535.250807069351\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3698.21313907242\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3416.1859044040157\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 15610.00908959597\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2524.89107880538\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4566.112368140833\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2514.697001521487\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2504.6103820957537\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2504.0336037242023\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2504.0002025680133\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2506.3393792641264\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2503.9933741579\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2503.992497259356\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2503.992479946275\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2503.9924687870616\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2503.9924687870703\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2503.9924687870616\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4F40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7180.887362794622\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5082.42481180282\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3819.3635167993493\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3738.3793672922484\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3490.527657491667\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3534.199251519437\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3600.0289875974386\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3435.0419835029224\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3665.047901752266\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2512.3649594526487\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3390.782506453637\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2556.6797943166403\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2507.546172739948\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2510.835968593195\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2507.6306618954436\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2507.584497290938\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2507.508340687999\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2507.508235004376\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2507.5082283759693\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2507.508228375962\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2507.5082283759693\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38776A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7175.007894947412\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5096.288735827807\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3824.306079332091\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3743.1497887941596\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3473.6376688038563\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3548.4507878445966\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3554.6973226123177\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3432.241148345478\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3662.730635413646\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2514.2267084244254\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3348.5654293953285\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2511.5800962833437\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2512.0136044141072\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2509.745729743958\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2509.9081993035115\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2509.8846217149035\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2509.674059066524\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2509.673905632002\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2509.673793572958\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2509.673787827651\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2509.6737873270804\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2509.6737873270804\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38777C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7173.758870969637\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5090.190633594984\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3810.088621972105\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2773.269370320725\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3501.779220680851\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3544.4133167421496\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3587.9367459430487\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3421.382748285989\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3861.722398598158\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2516.0768452091343\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3334.3050746742474\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2524.546918016192\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2511.763204888664\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2515.5977913029747\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2514.944828808501\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2511.6747613552643\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2511.639067630885\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2511.6368598054546\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2511.6368073834165\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2511.6368049934367\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2511.636804993439\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2511.6368049934367\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4160>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7236.786532745028\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4701.295915508688\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3332.3318761982764\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2596.021267326246\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3443.545919154887\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 4134.445723581266\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3523.7270679096364\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3444.5616169672985\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 2528.54040404675\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 3348.127811811887\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2519.5766524351056\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2525.3565941658\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2517.4950549175082\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2517.1212583915712\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2516.9844135308376\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2518.2760028004714\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2517.008025435819\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2516.9650974748442\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2516.965029902919\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2516.9650299029154\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2516.965029902919\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A68F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7227.072505256745\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4753.390179382465\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3057.5083091442575\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2530.0608141487\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3551.4206855978496\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3669.5963824191804\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3539.026090133065\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 2568.5722705394965\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 2536.9328649546464\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2572.5221750325827\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2528.890615882954\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2520.580189727495\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2519.894182147224\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2521.1878511445348\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2520.02035714832\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2519.878351882544\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2519.8781402872432\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2519.878140287249\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2519.8781402872432\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A45E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7250.2042150691395\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4753.391524737955\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3167.703839466152\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2533.035856702547\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 8531.176791459595\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 5735.003041528011\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3466.925172666885\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3402.9384434571775\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 22166.052660311732\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2541.7378262736347\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2714.5771669608375\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2522.5851622063337\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2522.499060698854\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2523.4630386966546\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2522.7785761081095\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2522.468761274696\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2522.468600734665\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2522.468545115888\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2522.4685444133197\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2522.4685444133197\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6BC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7256.662556222105\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4778.951087093818\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3165.4121026920525\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2538.5249976118594\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 2823.164847860963\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 4007.4740361088698\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3421.7458352872245\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3406.127226433179\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2556.3871855151365\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2573.5131978160707\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2531.728991901522\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2525.3239305018333\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2525.2405964555264\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2526.3982567915978\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2525.9499751527183\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2525.193757648267\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2525.1927981525705\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2525.192759932204\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2525.1927592792485\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2525.1927592792485\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7E80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7262.237831496014\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4739.297651784154\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3327.174661078224\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2589.0529235494973\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3554.113698637135\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3164.812060379899\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3624.381672260743\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3439.3104181685167\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3450.891539561928\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2545.2241325451378\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2560.2292703473167\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2533.069670270431\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2533.2187882700673\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2540.6121352723962\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2527.3891832978798\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2527.9935441662155\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2527.9742299593026\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2527.3582832921343\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2527.358085795164\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2527.3580847759094\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 2527.3580818431565\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2527.3580818431565\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38810F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7266.476607478602\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4724.618325473218\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3331.381380778562\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2597.2826272420484\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3558.279227807206\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3180.8723988790584\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3627.402170963766\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3449.2421194118656\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3462.8710879715545\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2547.9142586768357\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2560.8102045055075\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2535.4167982291046\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2535.4982000546734\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2533.5229403610992\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2529.966563593139\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2529.9359802322815\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2529.9580175273777\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2530.12141685582\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2529.9292145157565\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2529.929074670218\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2529.92906823426\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 2529.9290605029255\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 2529.9290605029264\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2529.9290605029255\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883EB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7279.254483159915\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4726.307666935338\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3392.764362664915\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2611.1957623106364\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3559.209866734436\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3186.921549529788\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3634.0815557181177\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3475.728041704636\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3440.957583307324\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2545.037234855092\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2548.9127557397755\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2536.583186568616\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2534.418162009504\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2532.1078283876836\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2532.01319149707\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2533.0192055191706\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2532.731644079383\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2531.9729873420665\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2531.971167366022\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2531.971155030762\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 2531.9709336648875\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 2531.970929421372\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 2531.970929421366\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2531.970929421372\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 253\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3881F30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7275.5993820845615\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4715.695729353042\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3778.313407218671\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2635.250928847634\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3565.0589361247703\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3207.7475637169314\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3680.413823430019\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3636.639575484045\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2591.5060730738614\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2557.198166074786\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2591.698149817039\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2541.2112991686367\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2544.4000414972456\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2536.0300517039195\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2534.9449581627564\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2534.90482214044\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2536.4448321094555\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2534.887660846614\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2534.855366215788\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2534.854959675875\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2534.8549386324803\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 2534.854938632475\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2534.8549386324803\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7295.932713599688\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4721.429644411191\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3762.4972728689627\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2639.7728398272147\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3564.463934420524\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3209.990114283101\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3667.090652657077\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3604.6970646147774\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 2562.6331040397786\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2545.4494930562805\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2541.057377109044\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2542.172221384251\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2539.426185938459\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2536.8667568609\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2536.8430989284684\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2538.0145606173346\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2536.8364481844233\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2536.8326074939046\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2536.832799908213\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2536.832327085031\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2536.832327085025\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2536.832327085031\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38825C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7308.290534568521\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5130.046284326049\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3939.4457411677977\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2703.9193062234945\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3570.442917837231\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3279.040349110328\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3605.8065111870956\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3478.137874011716\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2553.2254638346094\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2543.432611915151\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2543.858867600818\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 3330.024936669477\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2542.4814849733975\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2539.3917327943054\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2542.6232227863284\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2539.3801122523455\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2539.3775065315954\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2539.377466486988\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2539.377455437838\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 2539.377455437835\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2539.377455437838\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A27E9120>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7301.380202826436\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5109.620796276593\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3914.023901833052\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2653.253983397047\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3573.116811222208\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3229.067485549244\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3674.6027707434678\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3656.0678451230965\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3075.9075945919517\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2564.0260385145393\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2546.803885056788\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2549.557544251442\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2549.3020289046144\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2542.7251888198725\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2542.6055989129277\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2542.9265527981324\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2542.7966964186735\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2542.5811532055272\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2542.581105573746\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2542.581101462243\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2542.5811014622413\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2542.581101462243\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3874C10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7322.728787009173\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5111.3545789540985\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3568.7780321437745\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2651.9646228128695\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3572.611349901092\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3247.3625295060424\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3648.9054749823295\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3650.835688865833\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3078.7998451760504\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2563.625527479915\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2549.7568598118633\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 3386.77552927549\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2545.065186273982\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2544.7772966320586\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2544.6386465726528\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2546.2152826472884\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2544.633436889512\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2544.632270816554\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2544.6322642806276\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2544.6322642806217\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2544.6322642806276\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880F70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7324.239824666161\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5119.841939718389\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3589.908658816912\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2660.5780321482207\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3579.2078782149683\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3241.056014650187\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3680.2570805225323\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3617.5629017443207\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2615.078659534628\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2567.2034457948403\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2551.115548754796\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2553.839017795379\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2551.165479029025\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2547.135227850336\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2551.921723092393\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2547.1373688790723\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2547.1234994874603\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2547.121601666898\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2547.1215839909755\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2547.121583990978\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2547.1215839909755\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38819C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7308.420180583271\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5043.923921369247\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3468.56056095349\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2643.4774849184405\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3585.2920909527993\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 3236.3347279045583\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3666.3371992800976\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3678.631946556793\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2909.2002182237966\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2570.671814493041\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2555.021161436462\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2558.065926057173\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2558.048187967007\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2551.0791818564426\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2555.57840937605\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2551.0731845753207\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2551.068476493838\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2551.0679269491548\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2551.067925789723\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2551.0679257897345\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2551.067925789723\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882350>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7309.13481340231\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5017.108505606054\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3993.8593721493976\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2749.77968776963\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3595.7136561227157\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3303.0379877204236\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3577.9060804909177\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3608.6025250806224\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3469.8095531657054\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2583.4532539575166\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2560.0638688799563\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 3387.181228410999\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2554.3407884157295\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2558.455150742304\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2555.109692635704\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2556.367716090267\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2554.037433290191\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2554.020786857831\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2554.019344058961\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2554.0192883257596\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2554.01928366095\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 2554.0192836609576\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2554.01928366095\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882FE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7320.864433783215\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 4732.507996245141\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3265.4555352529096\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2583.10082622336\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3298.3822510760374\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 4041.205246587457\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 3517.9485949756127\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 3568.4510588521116\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 2566.2699066413193\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 2676.577490741379\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 2561.293177474111\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 2563.593989343685\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2557.06843103578\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 2557.066290161145\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2557.067980137318\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2557.0610224689062\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2557.059903861257\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2557.0598835842593\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2557.05988358425\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2557.0598835842593\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A76D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7375.986333418247\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5127.648010805891\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3951.908572689671\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3867.8587823973385\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3568.957446083407\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3666.247671452451\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3627.8404011242737\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3543.923971559473\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 3604.113578165986\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2568.6357765733774\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3465.402534097985\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2561.1530247728724\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 2570.471234634776\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 3545.9812906759716\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2564.300469014879\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2561.024331393567\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2560.8904491998874\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2560.8886226423992\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2560.888547772709\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 2560.8885362696765\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2560.888536269677\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2560.8885362696765\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A47C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7423.993585204962\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5084.225717869975\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3247.5606739178525\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2608.0874126063136\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 3904.260652311544\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3932.5428216946993\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3733.5056590861177\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3530.927177614886\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2595.383394404558\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 3500.621078022852\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 2589.092901344624\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2889.3229049026995\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2570.5327815115406\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2564.3527547096655\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2567.185135499494\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2564.0386836349116\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2563.9771996848685\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2563.9770587408407\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2563.951181433912\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2563.950417399318\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2563.9504150641474\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 2563.9504150641524\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2563.9504150641474\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4310>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7407.360301164165\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5108.075502458116\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3936.978856077847\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2716.8256703044394\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3661.127512097776\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3664.7681987937576\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3655.414458176085\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3545.420232952852\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2640.9306299041577\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2572.1164207271063\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3723.5817699270856\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2582.3319512493235\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2567.4414740425236\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2566.6530682653647\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2566.383774188936\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2576.007696250725\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2566.3578504438574\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2566.3557333923463\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2566.3556531511963\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2566.3556474249544\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2566.3556474249526\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2566.3556474249544\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B670>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7484.136165420248\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5037.330224091529\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3364.436008183591\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2594.022547050999\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3945.1657871622333\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3947.4896789135355\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3580.768289301712\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3610.068982288337\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3546.3113510018597\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2592.1854534482054\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2576.5116489592133\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2577.0229716217355\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2572.289832779186\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2572.1628642471937\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 2570.6220839653643\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 2570.3671803960337\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2570.6425766628736\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 2570.359479117667\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 2570.3529293580214\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    226,   Neg. LLF: 2570.352921150508\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 2570.3529211504965\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2570.352921150508\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392BC70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7483.083126520016\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5096.0688450090065\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3482.0650414513534\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 2595.921662569521\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 4003.0342517835743\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3914.355056141073\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3587.4838718528063\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3635.445326491323\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3550.9494994359793\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2594.991390010076\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2578.9385664147567\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2586.533299072275\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2573.24084138557\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2584.2717395030813\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2573.3518443516914\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2580.0663085154674\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 2573.105958674263\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    206,   Neg. LLF: 2573.024070510808\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 2573.0236323834306\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    226,   Neg. LLF: 2573.0235883758446\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    236,   Neg. LLF: 2573.023587671612\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2573.023587671612\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 236\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B940>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7514.38099059836\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5196.901881108432\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3649.753012297968\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 2882.445503942642\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3183.2041909073687\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3612.038550490254\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3722.73101210017\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3608.5416601701627\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3543.6978659512038\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2589.5829802371304\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3541.5458470526473\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2581.7064528754127\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2583.965108054753\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2578.631632857157\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2578.521577687617\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2580.478692593104\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2581.6796027221103\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2578.4578753337546\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2578.4575595380584\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2578.4575469353135\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2578.457543912975\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 2578.457543912969\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2578.457543912975\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39288E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 7943.90027507487\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5134.793003307155\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 3660.279828998915\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3067.044960212843\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 3293.787721996949\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 3601.2963029199295\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 3856.805745978872\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 3669.8184179945024\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 2658.852950520001\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 2597.595609821052\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3547.5849179731554\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2597.7826659418383\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2588.353765968892\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2588.59653348774\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2583.2597833130876\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2590.753341353573\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2584.214290701076\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2583.0945622977406\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2583.083261152891\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2583.0829373548017\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2583.082921083492\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 2583.082920380655\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2583.082920380655\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3A672E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8289.700015140832\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5071.44903398572\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 4652.002583114029\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 3533.164883776525\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 2606.108781025831\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3629.4169750998717\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3717.1970869723955\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3607.562690347016\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2709.088180468747\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2599.221392727876\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3566.576597212458\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2600.312622778261\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2592.9160349898357\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2588.0750678996246\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2587.681633298177\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2592.31488612169\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2587.745429185894\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 2587.6571630162407\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 2587.656974703884\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 2587.6569684273304\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 2587.6569676186273\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2587.6569676186273\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392BD00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8481.085567451195\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5124.736256662048\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5591.417955168568\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4557.572262877333\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2614.427131206473\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3720.9897481012076\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 2803.404945835831\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3612.9172888570306\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2671.47956596505\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2601.7383731580576\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3645.0507222158917\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2601.1397082191097\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2595.57230417722\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2592.0859982082516\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2596.6699605353037\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2593.276791275322\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2591.986847469202\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 2591.9505428145585\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 2591.9503848971744\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 2591.9503785741563\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 2591.950378574153\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2591.9503785741563\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39287F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8615.972449036435\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5191.666200957862\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 5775.571034864493\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4675.211651157096\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2619.047247387046\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3677.703998266982\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 2631.3390280317562\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3611.4596468748405\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2644.266565307399\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2602.5927246355086\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3642.203140049443\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2600.7817006817727\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2610.564397117575\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2596.2459360644325\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2597.7707186958723\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2596.3919873894774\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2596.177854661015\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2596.1755983110647\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2596.175588650815\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 2596.175586930847\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2596.1755869308454\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2596.175586930847\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38F39A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8821.999323348557\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5291.440898639304\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6103.996170462604\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4748.319670373106\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2625.111191671016\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3683.1436870849857\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 2634.264268426289\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3619.0622989748745\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2633.5913852707745\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2607.0982542293063\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3618.823986973809\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2603.822306379605\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2621.081879980735\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2600.3453739862503\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2602.248634109897\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2600.4636462786193\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2600.2845182182436\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2600.2810251064384\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2600.2809931489683\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 2600.2809861225933\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2600.2809861225924\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2600.2809861225933\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A71C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8815.083314510513\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5249.9884443006995\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6093.711634371945\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4641.291740982919\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2625.471039388107\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3695.197906842115\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 2634.3616030851385\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3616.510739835837\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3604.4341602734357\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2610.2113424636373\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3589.915813085434\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2603.143996992877\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2615.645674253931\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2603.4688986818055\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2603.1435776076114\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2604.8325221050072\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2603.0180531865435\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2603.0180386085713\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2603.018038608565\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2603.0180386085713\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A45E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8865.040846548267\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5399.325896405773\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6383.606514663579\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4833.204986630239\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2629.064604365314\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3729.729662204928\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 2632.1887272256236\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3627.8668142290926\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3610.080366849278\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2613.87787098049\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3595.128418486979\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2608.655854686653\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2616.3744536734157\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2607.3814747038014\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 2611.19193406696\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 2607.2736982877523\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2607.264070541409\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2607.263653713269\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2607.2636251837785\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 2607.2636241922705\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2607.2636241922705\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A60E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8832.500803948198\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5418.442694046686\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6496.568696774897\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4792.721926215419\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2634.374091949605\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 3652.180356633784\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 3717.700389954209\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 3639.354669711674\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 3586.238322926295\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 2616.184367012578\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 3563.344937859877\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 2613.3156806633524\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 2612.35181836208\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 2610.0113541449377\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 2614.7247229697055\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 2610.0161546851377\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 2609.9864328169783\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    206,   Neg. LLF: 2609.9833142690777\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 2609.983313064878\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 2609.983313064888\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2609.983313064878\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880F70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8830.416415491638\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5336.048413031518\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6215.066119546609\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4737.189691119549\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2630.9849642435775\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3762.473244770962\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 2686.0787108151926\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 15208.542038960266\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3611.5082927503254\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2639.153967484476\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3578.3350606817776\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2630.240546150861\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2620.4388592876494\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2613.033731909618\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2616.6955148613506\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2615.0018976055235\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2612.89950726993\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2612.8999954445394\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2612.8972718431414\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 2612.895560828245\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    236,   Neg. LLF: 2612.8955276835195\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    246,   Neg. LLF: 2612.895526149725\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    255,   Neg. LLF: 2612.895526149725\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2612.895526149725\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 255\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883850>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8804.050627455197\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5351.309946036515\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6229.105106430555\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4747.030817813882\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2633.277083705889\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3754.7123979848075\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 2681.2597861442573\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 15911.648877588097\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3604.355187576734\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2653.562205947052\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3090.053898770193\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2633.0346985539586\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2622.3693855378424\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2615.6051813529944\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2618.1180477743283\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3553.195407683022\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2615.5037296612722\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2615.4880250877895\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2615.4853374394743\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2615.4851835239942\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2615.4851050762127\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 2615.485104022451\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 2615.485104022449\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2615.485104022451\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3A672E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8832.382233858112\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5317.577689932475\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6077.788709957356\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4653.157156732848\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2634.751829246483\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3834.189436978859\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 2684.6397608159805\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 17422.923736744076\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3593.550888429325\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2696.507911009575\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2922.079083378923\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2631.9120155182927\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2622.2841975324914\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2618.4815321041337\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2624.522391882493\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2619.1897826561026\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2618.436493472017\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2618.4163251490745\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2618.4159712485516\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 2618.4159648167265\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2618.4159648167333\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2618.4159648167265\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A54E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8812.239609627184\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5325.372869178254\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6257.319675587816\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4762.620339684576\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2636.849616065253\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 4097.1120188347795\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 2665.584339593467\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5489.94723610562\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3590.606615853943\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2652.4317755865804\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2628.8840936032193\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2627.6336642074953\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2622.170729117379\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2621.860046199191\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2626.362955357434\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2626.000519918157\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2621.8190575634417\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2621.813573520554\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2621.8130790575233\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 2621.8129932684724\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 2621.8129910415437\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 2621.8129910415455\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2621.8129910415437\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A27EBA30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8918.591430632041\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5376.439333617613\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6388.470925563057\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4816.471351680004\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2641.613646288497\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3834.5504897629435\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4189.940853808632\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3630.0005151246905\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3626.185991255945\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3693.443256677748\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2633.3465363515716\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2628.0687026070827\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2626.943215948799\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2626.322151376343\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2628.3918641791706\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2626.725788831014\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2626.2730018513457\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2626.2724484970236\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2626.2723970167704\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 2626.2723825378557\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2626.272382537862\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2626.2723825378557\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38804F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8848.888931297308\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5414.141026631937\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6394.013701409238\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4771.535840398938\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2642.6857367416014\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3876.581138490491\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3678.8807163963893\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3655.2835766100047\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4002.4916514618862\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3594.165894425346\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2635.776401342969\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2633.5371654794744\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2629.1969371356017\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2629.05110742281\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2632.471262778313\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2630.155413430306\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2629.021305769098\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2629.020931528511\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2629.020914192318\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2629.020914192309\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2629.020914192318\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38830A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8984.195654502659\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5496.138258223244\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6437.973512583716\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4822.888974600687\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2645.110262599958\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3999.9932113603327\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3640.0223192825715\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3613.743727432726\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3755.468204776513\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2658.1680355894277\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2635.666381674858\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2639.727882743962\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2633.5692911890656\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2638.074844638146\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2633.581213438946\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2633.558063509817\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2633.54752214044\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2633.5472822760203\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2633.547281582855\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2633.547281582855\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3881240>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9087.355074013238\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5554.9007410978475\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6525.509464344852\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4813.2665322340135\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2651.2441379070965\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3912.970574004272\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3926.5650075982953\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3634.6260052728785\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3688.150015287787\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2657.7797951190178\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2648.7562229979803\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2637.8529902533223\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2637.729001234812\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2643.558622244482\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2638.0011162722053\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2640.0688792545675\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2637.6472630232074\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2637.6451195060736\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2637.6449741584397\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 2637.6449572063507\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 2637.644956330944\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2637.644956330944\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928280>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9031.132788402692\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5517.73428591714\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6556.896837590044\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4834.15292794255\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2651.207642292411\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4078.347230794893\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3655.2772054229354\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3669.139397673963\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2647.7410211719953\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3610.786928202648\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2640.373900830493\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2723.4881454978913\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2640.7569506171594\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2640.3054951524136\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2640.294150629179\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2640.2939710150067\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2640.2978731153216\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2640.2937835013527\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2640.2937825532445\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2640.2937825532445\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A110>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8993.948429018867\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5481.520232855046\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6481.168956865142\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4888.151631469145\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2653.341735125072\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4215.02252607134\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3665.767654920912\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3634.8565891622984\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3760.512285246339\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2649.0046271836254\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2642.854022128137\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2647.2434563088905\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2643.183179949913\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2642.817022203342\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2642.8169750036295\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2642.8169560066517\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2642.816953845735\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2642.816953845734\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2642.816953845735\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B670>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9013.993349316901\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5511.781143642476\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6552.236762720069\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4886.666724103946\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2656.193308636886\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4391.890336136068\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3682.6176885065106\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3622.456674290992\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3630.0494665332035\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2650.1760418624685\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2645.823306987473\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2653.035649623409\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2645.8672103705376\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2645.769663513331\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2645.769577423328\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2645.769502445617\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2645.7695012980525\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2645.769501298054\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2645.7695012980525\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392AF80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9030.244472174996\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5494.888887145111\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6508.2723280578175\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4854.018002099051\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2659.8809676659876\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5138.853065631496\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3691.245885061533\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3610.8270607776367\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2656.3179334993383\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3541.1103072820797\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2650.881916550955\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2653.4649804203495\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2648.779693069058\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2655.4870632640686\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 2648.764868173636\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2648.7643530851806\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2648.7642021714155\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2648.7642008271687\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2648.764200827163\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2648.7642008271687\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39297E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9052.06983714454\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5517.46833710162\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6510.19016895721\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4811.92145399603\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2661.894877427109\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4681.514543325148\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3699.888009296473\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3620.504650912322\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3562.841166487493\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2660.6481732234206\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2651.4273373224223\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2653.0429739866104\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2652.447254936704\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2651.239257711515\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2651.2383166635464\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2651.2381276878305\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2651.2381256640256\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2651.2381256640256\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2651.2381256640256\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38F39A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9024.834590735143\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5544.949316262542\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6615.10566056909\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4885.514957937252\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2679.6752424645115\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3511.6916693047324\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3733.344981565777\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3685.6615112777044\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3640.125231663338\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2664.356459864305\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2670.4088872128955\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2655.4676538043445\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2655.252779143071\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2657.46224462604\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2655.223122704951\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2655.190893216241\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2655.187925102337\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2655.1832293124016\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2655.183215222257\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2655.1832137293623\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 2655.1832137293613\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2655.1832137293623\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B7F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9024.237208254097\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5532.610296326209\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6506.084976233273\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4889.364484467477\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2683.2388233015445\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3516.1038013711905\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3739.2449984300547\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3690.3600856877324\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3654.0251251530476\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2674.711119440692\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2721.249072968204\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2659.0356294912544\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2658.7569889422493\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2660.792723112426\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2658.7093158415832\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2658.681995826134\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2658.6811715222057\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2658.6810466280303\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2658.6808713076925\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2658.680862588074\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2658.680861984255\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2658.680861984255\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929240>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9035.476102394206\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5532.866384666924\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6513.81968462094\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4847.6316447639765\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2685.7867741126106\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3518.682774105492\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3741.2484910073445\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3674.8316492168624\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3647.2059949554387\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2684.7359012357447\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2669.244076457785\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2691.405243221006\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2661.220053935119\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2666.4783618940082\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2661.4251058241607\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2661.127093234616\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2661.1219237800124\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2661.1217763109203\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2661.121728414896\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2661.1217284148975\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2661.121728414896\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B9A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9067.657975938168\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5567.603960621751\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6628.123897890528\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4897.5274088177985\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2688.978586434696\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3524.7110204217206\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3748.659876371514\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3681.0350239211334\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3659.718407911042\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2685.340963259393\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2673.9206043117247\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2667.4534810701225\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2664.4417834053493\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3471.978447814377\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2664.375381188189\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2664.369557180638\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2664.3664324920837\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2664.3660990474937\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2664.3660555897113\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2664.3660549275764\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2664.3660549275764\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39292A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9001.176152509219\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5535.100895144069\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6609.976185083\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4932.844788667877\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2692.3977270822343\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 3530.079151573441\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3756.6607203916815\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3683.5557677950765\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3672.7122881793866\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2690.5740934682553\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2671.4503842855506\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2677.096018868445\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2667.8577670705763\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2671.356028406405\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2668.8536374351766\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2667.7923201599133\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2667.7916822652132\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2667.791598090755\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2667.791594059906\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2667.7915940599064\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2667.791594059906\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B940>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9014.484717186655\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5547.940486435699\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6507.6192594896875\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5001.624911966697\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2695.641118945123\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2697.075139198543\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3764.8152725197297\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3827.5836945822866\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2682.215249608231\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2726.290599780752\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2673.1056578546313\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2697.109272887397\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2671.9497401130793\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2673.7943067490996\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 2671.9768161630072\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 2671.928189173873\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2671.928173192581\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2671.9281724225516\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2671.9281724225516\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 204\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882110>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 8898.37325362415\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5603.25523363363\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6530.749424703479\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4983.219451133904\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2700.4674015782557\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2895.877423596997\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3773.1199848916876\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3693.918536169152\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3701.3970196969613\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2698.4846551584797\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2678.0408548503992\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2686.2055516154333\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2675.934983009499\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2675.832969616883\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2675.8146052598786\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2675.8144096774563\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2675.806406487156\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2675.80636318345\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2675.80636318346\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2675.80636318345\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882BC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9166.889748379803\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5646.775354990161\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6294.470792153725\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4917.822624487363\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2704.8037967942532\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2746.330865681939\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3777.3357419208924\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3708.5981983507045\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3710.381022252026\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2699.016477561599\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2682.6860338457973\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2690.280567713508\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2680.143629001869\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2680.132190103792\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2680.0628205854773\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2680.058635272947\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2680.0562109016264\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2680.0560132796745\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2680.056007678839\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2680.056007678842\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2680.056007678839\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E290>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9337.39930850279\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5566.780496369078\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6186.95412071457\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4875.047851045978\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2707.733083174018\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2703.3431941568883\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3769.6867967796156\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3936.8089942849033\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2737.87498160106\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3800.660802670492\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2696.404510760484\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2700.1452083573204\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2691.6692039804593\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2684.404264208722\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2685.8310430570637\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2687.61786514082\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2684.221433948962\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2684.221126260653\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2684.221067855571\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2684.221066736301\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2684.2210667363033\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2684.221066736301\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387EAD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9340.702246667492\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5557.865131530192\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6014.428481531031\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4832.794847393787\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2710.3391089704132\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2734.320731394817\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3789.218581980676\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2776.8299389632975\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3680.533577952968\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2701.804835114742\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2738.7714147673523\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2687.32542377749\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2690.3213765858463\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2687.8851514016756\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2689.325547883368\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2686.9620436376026\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2686.9362353191377\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2686.936011327257\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2686.935998742711\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 2686.935997099874\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2686.935997099873\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2686.935997099874\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882E90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9096.845987767269\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5588.955998270672\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6067.731927814663\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4784.004203736578\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2714.700328647825\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2729.106205430944\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3799.0473857593793\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3715.22698909189\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3700.9145007918405\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2716.9949886766008\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2695.5356996252085\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2692.755887352396\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2689.9742954668664\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2704.965971534344\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2690.004071397449\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2689.9645402929195\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2689.911110174583\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2689.911109200082\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2689.911109200082\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 204\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883EB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9056.32556663287\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5580.160256001454\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6209.750471168417\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4872.9979496882115\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2717.5208442762864\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2735.7248770537312\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3807.0799198465525\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3713.5733842248983\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3709.256573400726\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2721.078551958446\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2696.3255872191066\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2703.527809543079\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2692.710559285587\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2697.736450104474\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2692.754080938105\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2692.6712914933582\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2692.658846895333\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2692.658686787642\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2692.658686129058\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2692.658686129058\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4FD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9077.827324523336\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5598.165365928427\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6122.931700072914\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4891.189653605668\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2719.8967577092644\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2827.726920514455\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3809.858221728353\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3726.0899866343884\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3725.135770029934\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2726.405834900256\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2697.243209210861\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2705.439850389305\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2695.207056537501\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2695.1695292449276\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2695.1674003226944\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2695.1509425953464\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2695.146743924186\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2695.146712637595\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2695.1467121027285\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2695.1467121027285\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38816F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9169.795191907186\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5632.280810224196\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6118.52211001902\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4880.387461598746\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2723.0138839266006\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2728.825954939708\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3812.4543951155183\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2739.850658456824\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3790.962518912007\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2713.5119855158337\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2702.6863467809962\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2709.881949145234\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2699.773984515081\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2699.8872330990635\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2701.3181035046086\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2699.899826055078\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2699.6059496897815\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2699.6056945546943\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2699.605601709595\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2699.605593253573\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 2699.605592660304\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2699.605592660304\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883910>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9230.908935518282\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5677.65618911349\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6235.320422893961\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4964.492524667168\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2727.4614109230088\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2775.168412318082\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3845.488318808676\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3722.1677207524317\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3742.844791622495\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2739.581146204764\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2704.185378702396\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2709.556183274277\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2767.2728417898834\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2702.4138364708992\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2704.831079618302\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2702.39316904951\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2702.3866781709567\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2702.3859203443094\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2702.3858582394278\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2702.38585684982\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2702.3858568498217\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2702.38585684982\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38821A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9171.58151832689\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5643.473691967505\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6106.184910469311\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4879.350324261125\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2728.5339109479173\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2767.568400695395\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3831.1388665515024\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2754.840576661566\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3718.7641170452052\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2716.154825436575\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2709.5368943756125\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2708.7471910301247\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2705.0926610721554\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2719.657396318991\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2705.049577647206\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2705.020459994068\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2705.0228898213636\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2705.018295959362\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2705.018069035814\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2705.018067767498\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2705.018067767508\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2705.018067767498\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A650>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9265.5498584871\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5677.366662149385\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6119.964204662847\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4859.105237667722\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2732.4682025212887\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2729.007641181154\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3838.3027659172644\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2749.7778658375764\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3862.5115780389915\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2723.541529830666\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2727.8666775258625\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2721.3523686058434\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2709.971237246511\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2708.762285553645\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2708.7249614642824\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2711.3499626105254\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2708.717304482351\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2708.7162877707524\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2708.716271054577\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2708.7162685493413\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2708.716268549342\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2708.7162685493413\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929900>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9199.968065038196\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5676.287083239311\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6140.15051777597\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4913.286956803087\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2736.5731781844265\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2760.472141929293\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3875.2141021061984\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3732.054566145152\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3749.9349443871397\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2761.901497524681\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2713.250346299865\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2718.9252024159296\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2718.4009842271303\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2711.421434538505\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2719.0824755561393\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2711.390021641803\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2711.384746162512\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2711.3821860263715\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2711.382108464629\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2711.3821068688276\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 2711.3821068688258\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2711.3821068688276\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E950>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9176.774956768118\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5727.604234704237\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6118.332780262819\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4872.80279031161\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2737.5217565276025\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2748.195189885283\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3847.858333335024\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2750.646599892154\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3698.6871069621966\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2749.5043108357654\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2726.852040934714\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2716.8975463566985\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3155.2407443972215\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2713.8439357006882\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2716.064112230937\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2714.012468767999\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2713.7954940370764\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2713.7952114579125\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2713.795209692729\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2713.7952096927265\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2713.795209692729\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CA30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9164.576843165427\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5707.258847279141\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6252.894784106855\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4985.039862216901\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2743.0987943088985\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2743.840607730331\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3923.488004086978\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3695.2078874729905\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2745.2114537405196\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3717.740681896966\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2742.5541188587795\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2719.250207031127\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2718.7383735929443\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2717.6254177582814\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2717.6140888319865\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2719.25791770826\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2717.5839007253935\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2717.5833372618854\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2717.5833305859123\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2717.5833305859164\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2717.5833305859123\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387FC10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9211.872801974892\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5725.083781551233\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6414.29696969066\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5016.382344765083\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2745.736503471643\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2762.8565075976435\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3922.048617277587\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3736.4600691916294\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2728.502670421023\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3745.859651669223\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2730.6763042811735\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2722.6003613330126\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2720.057683513368\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2720.0306385186523\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2723.232539825115\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2720.0086379647164\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2720.008233909419\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2720.008216574642\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2720.008214365277\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2720.0082143652803\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2720.008214365277\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D3F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9163.396845117715\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5710.6407107758705\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6471.364570689887\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5040.093604262276\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2748.7971360243027\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2747.169377817374\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3953.8247034134\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3718.9810003373973\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2737.6190506885705\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2803.097018119687\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2725.298678344261\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2729.539819438266\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2722.9892029825223\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2725.469667449261\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 2724.665468461808\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 2722.955305229128\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 2722.9550427805807\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 2722.9550337923383\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 2722.9550327192815\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2722.955032719283\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2722.9550327192815\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387FCA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9169.581823986839\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5717.192765417959\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6481.855258811047\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5119.496810317268\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2751.2975266249377\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2761.7027361663495\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3935.285937191953\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3739.5264720089235\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2753.8491370842085\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3678.409793695171\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2732.721797321721\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2727.469088874034\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2725.3964625318513\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2737.818212580935\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2726.855625271628\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2725.329526045726\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2725.322534044969\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2725.3225167594464\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2725.3225155735945\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2725.3225155736004\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2725.3225155735945\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E1A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9208.79565516819\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5701.187009871304\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6339.410075784142\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4964.150798432144\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2753.5291859323547\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2806.123631307213\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3907.5651694795324\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3751.881938224224\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2734.562545863898\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3756.9984974152876\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2735.19742525543\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2729.800219154299\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2727.655436773737\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2727.620088812596\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2729.077665142444\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2727.6135245120486\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2727.613180481214\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2727.61317586909\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2727.6131758690854\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2727.61317586909\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38E2140>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9200.191233083784\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5701.188026963985\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6344.628584306254\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4972.944171793657\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2756.2097014064643\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2802.5812392450007\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 3907.1652268339385\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3755.377624518481\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2755.5794845554246\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3765.5758752731113\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2746.3562283114015\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2737.3418769229315\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2730.2899451458834\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2730.180839801945\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2732.288082548565\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2730.545888719483\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2730.1007854161435\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2730.100046529078\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2730.10001780054\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 2730.1000173764187\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2730.1000173764187\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D690>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9192.737386940717\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5694.607148081857\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6434.125104951996\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 4982.951347314988\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2760.05514580621\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2760.4705334475198\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4036.768121256044\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3745.6667034134107\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2759.0610938503664\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2859.509924832912\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2742.6024154764327\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2736.8869285067585\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2734.152488389097\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2735.4947047078645\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2738.9243581560722\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2734.0729332744913\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2734.0717262545113\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2734.0716930585813\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2734.0716912877833\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2734.0716912877833\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2734.0716912877833\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387FFA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9181.98690461203\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5756.80493600191\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6562.783765072205\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5091.320067664645\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2763.7457773631877\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2750.983241714772\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4153.046878329531\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3700.366642596045\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2772.8125982983674\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2756.8985545547202\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2791.3440063458465\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2738.1954936709362\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2738.5175423192763\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2739.6036338244585\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2738.003125577338\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2737.9551797996933\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2737.9548162917054\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2737.9547560076307\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2737.9547466315053\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2737.954746631509\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2737.9547466315053\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9309.880970581737\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5780.545559326181\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6498.189825975208\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5106.679401385432\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2767.2950221232336\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2750.524719829056\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4219.378971211343\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3023.351387948559\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2777.87764692862\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3738.50053377777\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2746.6678507627685\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2741.7122015283585\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2741.496504741216\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2741.434544952693\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2741.4039655382685\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2741.4015157679837\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2741.401346975804\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2741.4013408802007\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2741.401340140935\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2741.401340140935\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387FFA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9299.202756796512\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5741.298952149546\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6316.396656174822\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5086.707042005106\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2769.5191980061063\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2755.945677981551\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4218.886997042048\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3714.170713247584\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2770.248308792567\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2770.7488774371395\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2760.416936332874\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2743.872737893341\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2744.8369655864126\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2745.3153246219117\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2743.7779845787977\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2743.776989491785\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2743.7769090479874\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2743.7769082915684\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2743.7769082915684\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 202\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9391.997592636928\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5725.267891042926\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6314.971630520064\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4969.763687018431\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2771.0785314038308\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2758.445227110099\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3977.424144410573\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2810.241928395286\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2776.870654750881\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3855.1519654089598\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2778.2355658342003\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2966.3017025446443\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2747.7516627816303\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2747.023158076395\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2746.9886657323545\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2746.9955756995287\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2746.9806937203703\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2746.9805555920316\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2746.9805522392935\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2746.980551753888\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2746.980551753888\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A68F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9596.070947879369\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5696.951458704588\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6184.407389553983\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5067.4131146359505\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2774.6165411356214\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2761.0070984289605\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4036.1893667880267\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2826.427428242997\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2808.528011967434\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3750.928899017261\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2767.3539879889563\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3824.7897266469863\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2750.2806412770638\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2750.2352016201285\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2750.2635103500843\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2750.2134236538604\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2750.212266533589\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2750.2122592526557\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2750.2122575321964\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 2750.2122575321982\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2750.2122575321964\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4F40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9398.055348010628\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5813.711282288062\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6217.288243223194\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4975.515125664766\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2779.7390719401164\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2764.6928169493845\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4201.4347209123125\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3909.8288251634276\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2825.1135653147494\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2758.078085413972\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2768.4417400304023\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2761.89035693843\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2754.9362984222507\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2756.046169233847\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2754.924216100105\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2754.9207061710745\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2754.9206790954904\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2754.9206771292393\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2754.9206771292384\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2754.9206771292393\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5570>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9254.22808407075\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5840.719846109808\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6528.577728144578\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5125.910471266447\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2785.492251741967\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2768.090566704534\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4221.957524732865\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3878.662253172784\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2829.95321043583\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2801.118562293747\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2760.399147823281\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2797.446762748783\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2758.9689088139658\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2758.989492625778\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2758.994923693908\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2758.929499019915\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2758.9292380832208\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2758.929235913486\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2758.929235913488\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2758.929235913486\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882D40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9215.056030715885\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5857.463002697698\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6598.34280566614\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5122.041014724062\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2787.976388637512\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2769.913801643448\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4296.072346025798\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3875.7383990465614\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2846.4642159496443\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2834.9829064236756\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2763.245694392934\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2762.413401335953\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2761.504149545286\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2762.4127399846384\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2761.4918024809185\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2761.490688819057\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2761.490671630867\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2761.490669686356\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2761.490669686354\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2761.490669686356\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A27E85B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9296.088298054186\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5874.469899267711\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6506.35217105835\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5114.6337255612\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2790.4309040898884\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2772.426476286675\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4346.028949608187\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3104.548174734003\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2769.7387104410686\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3745.6452062431745\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2771.64632985968\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2764.458182472393\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2764.2821930762475\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2764.194117669531\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2764.1530066399596\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2764.152850662625\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2764.152837471065\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2764.1528374710697\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2764.152837471065\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 201\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3AA61D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9299.156591967363\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5860.916639847399\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6494.89125845007\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5103.6670689730445\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2792.940107754406\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2775.0591777401564\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4403.267013800522\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 2835.154245297492\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3258.069446398891\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2844.311152606974\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2768.4226804508494\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2766.8110252895485\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2766.7868049396147\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2766.7834460460094\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2766.787216961756\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2766.782952227211\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2766.782928475496\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2766.7829284755007\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2766.782928475496\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929F30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9295.395330351575\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5881.10039841073\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6497.6097321629\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5104.622077716124\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2795.3854878495886\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2777.9595758991327\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4446.417405403629\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 2806.256739788282\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3763.2746682970383\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2835.8630808258067\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2770.749414988409\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2769.2544814770245\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2769.252319841099\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2769.338131646994\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2769.23550892377\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2769.2354368386623\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2769.23543617806\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2769.23543617806\n",
      "            Iterations: 17\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 192\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 17\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928D00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9364.164185691538\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5880.146180528955\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6531.195649184016\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5131.049438455466\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2797.6116751269574\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2781.4255267100602\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4455.05825669259\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3729.7150608378543\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2798.8800171657676\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2783.6670366760472\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2774.705253202811\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2771.721722828417\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2772.4852095784854\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2772.596616107857\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2771.545787881795\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2771.544134813569\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2771.5440759419557\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2771.544067788095\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2771.5440677880924\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2771.544067788095\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D690>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9429.639086202245\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5878.187677960805\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6531.938648591061\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5144.2593831587155\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2800.166342668236\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2784.528372434229\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4456.306689323621\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3727.443182254414\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2798.331831414656\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2782.1399033583107\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2782.0236896049882\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2774.070100813452\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2774.046693935895\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2774.5339580782165\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2774.026955195074\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2774.025338858918\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2774.024908968154\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2774.024894476038\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2774.024894476034\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2774.024894476038\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F280>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9359.073507144374\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 5812.835937750716\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 6470.06152318047\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5079.412519910196\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 2805.338234303842\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 2792.193947615523\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4422.381957962974\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3735.854858022448\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 2793.78224732389\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 2787.0511408450557\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2785.7995972928097\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2780.2662291242723\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2779.4635685428457\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2779.330134471499\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2779.30651879516\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2779.3029183426743\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2779.3026269420952\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2779.302611593761\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2779.302608444934\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 2779.302608444935\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2779.302608444934\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D750>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9299.251693670241\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5980.476654557964\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6581.416509567862\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5075.482540951485\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2811.6032039274787\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2801.6098934442375\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4079.846587578301\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2840.9925077573953\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2808.927279717846\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4040.4804147777004\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2793.782274542862\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2796.988509945722\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2784.7673549032515\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2783.8336960089027\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2783.669661958904\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2783.7056712394296\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2783.6559325636213\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2783.655438322318\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2783.6554195473905\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2783.6554186706976\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2783.6554186706976\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E5F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9192.133186065235\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6024.66277037394\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6765.340735443693\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5196.249615215559\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2815.7101445432404\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2802.731837963982\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4090.902984012691\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2884.5356281580316\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2814.101504615818\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3869.1977596993447\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2797.561014111379\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2798.744203051425\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2787.233275235839\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2786.4641342042323\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2786.339422014823\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2786.337484352445\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2786.3331627650623\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2786.332501064604\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2786.3324181815206\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2786.3324159310655\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 2786.3324154419906\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2786.3324154419906\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD780>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9237.903670474427\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5953.16336216817\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6532.319149357028\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5033.9616796216815\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2823.9994521335884\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2800.9306837209892\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4207.5318839706\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3930.839094096546\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3982.994186637215\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2790.5981085728845\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2790.5028137810145\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2789.2781407972047\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2789.055233983183\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2789.0323363461835\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2789.044986285393\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2789.0209338687037\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2789.0208112041414\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2789.0208104608337\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2789.0208104608337\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 201\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387DB70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9237.715517547571\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5949.743801854205\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6542.618101689732\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5027.412034486114\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2827.8870762678894\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2802.2996222584457\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4362.742708148534\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3761.955213130953\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3005.449361121531\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2814.4717708927064\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2793.84779655851\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2791.5745568259044\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2791.4703182098974\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2791.450199624321\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2791.4380730881194\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2791.437669138536\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2791.4375850457945\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2791.437575030641\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2791.4375745782654\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2791.4375745782654\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3AA61D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9255.034590367894\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5952.316698802462\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6502.68511441201\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5020.282821197389\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2834.0228278169725\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2805.012845595321\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4864.241460196763\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3824.4335401788458\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2801.7842325288725\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2800.4377282429045\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2794.950788558761\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2795.213383409421\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2793.8632377016074\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2793.86152508211\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2793.863820044986\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2793.8492907749223\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2793.8492871716426\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2793.8492871716485\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2793.8492871716426\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 201\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6380>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9239.216493418748\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5957.892481754312\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6512.970405584014\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5011.341041268244\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2836.8264213713146\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2807.7847277844303\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4998.319741691062\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3845.8903978133567\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2798.811123412786\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2803.7023909620493\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2800.7638090494092\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2796.5715693398097\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2796.482051520251\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2796.466945505032\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2796.4474496003445\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2796.444691404181\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2796.444563328484\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2796.444562227767\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    208,   Neg. LLF: 2796.4445622277663\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2796.444562227767\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 208\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F9D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9286.274480913695\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 5936.395010579388\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6605.80387741003\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5031.37669206109\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2837.5417837406694\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2809.878517102038\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4540.393265973662\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3779.4662367721844\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2855.2841039442487\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2801.345558444691\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2804.6143099548235\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2799.7784444998465\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2799.1049904022066\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2799.049364763525\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2799.0482175627913\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2799.0463108423946\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2799.046206288863\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2799.046134503131\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2799.046134004823\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2799.046134004823\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9251.795587676907\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6039.332322301589\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6494.6626687931075\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5107.966909035585\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2833.1018766034113\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2816.5052983874916\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4204.236013939435\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3999.559730547725\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3969.031807441456\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2805.903250330992\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3817.399917595273\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2804.2437343746606\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2804.0529635101666\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2804.416233206929\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2803.990396423339\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2803.989956087723\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2803.989851082658\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2803.989846569416\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2803.9898459414344\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2803.9898459414344\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9277.696889482224\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6046.805639610373\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6735.509984453861\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5198.078622748937\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2836.266655036542\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2817.863615904659\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4314.3474291301645\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4046.214368997637\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3965.848629059943\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2809.7649447643953\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2809.309064585353\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2806.55542090811\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2807.3552375125755\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2806.5787888670125\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2806.509974694455\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2806.506044129956\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2806.505947475235\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2806.5059465123286\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2806.5059465123286\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 202\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9307.113637714125\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6060.244472658376\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6615.336694943846\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5068.79262813717\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2841.800052267954\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2819.6331818624276\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4875.210886911445\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3768.2526985100894\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2817.284563175539\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2811.1261531191653\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2853.8771907016258\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2809.053677949827\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2809.00707626027\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2809.005743807076\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2809.005352382088\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2809.0052946615187\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2809.005268224251\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2809.005267766578\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2809.005267766578\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883EB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9282.14724707878\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6058.531568411287\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6686.588650078385\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5060.010711914012\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2845.726624625753\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2825.433217074298\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 17583.298048293593\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3813.307986419575\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2816.0538250678687\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2843.042888126547\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2865.7748543001844\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2823.505479405595\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2811.385190460241\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2811.372728206562\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2811.357587495369\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2811.356118050742\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2811.355739995743\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2811.3557387951223\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2811.3557387951205\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2811.3557387951223\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880DC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9289.344809366448\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6046.5327640346295\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6596.959548280354\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5048.948524439032\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2849.5906557871035\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2828.720845581978\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 5857.571671525728\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3802.1439484585835\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2832.204494911518\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2817.161958354538\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2863.7867379821264\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2813.7090798652216\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2813.6918517947443\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2813.6478879967194\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2813.6471896663043\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2813.6471327926447\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2813.6470004452203\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2813.647000445212\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2813.6470004452203\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCEB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9283.003733770554\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6046.746662955511\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6629.629894396921\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5045.023288899909\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2852.496049962699\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2832.2396937561443\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 5470.739489270436\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3794.6765728431988\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2837.4042198284806\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2820.089293325478\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2870.2548018395273\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2816.3063441627773\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2816.1981951806015\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2816.153117087022\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2816.149462217911\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2816.1409959332796\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2816.1409495202124\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2816.1409477786265\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2816.140947778627\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2816.1409477786265\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF070>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9278.329003032319\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6161.318689478367\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6686.443789048167\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5143.041182466033\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2853.506408240077\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2834.968071404556\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 17606.178406628995\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3816.062353768484\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2822.8130380461926\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2830.5562769465178\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3862.813440506523\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2821.475161833251\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2821.420609188204\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2821.416812197385\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2821.4166885370714\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2821.416680543696\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    188,   Neg. LLF: 2821.4166805436957\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2821.416680543696\n",
      "            Iterations: 17\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 188\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 17\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3881840>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9308.396864794231\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6156.393836104862\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6930.940041574282\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5175.108676973674\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2855.0879143564616\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2839.17657144146\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 5457.73552675425\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3760.8674843481217\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2841.75763863695\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3203.0669381409816\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2824.833473252575\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3879.661684438016\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2824.0007440373965\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2823.845081421152\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2823.8433813981583\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2823.843305456673\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2823.8432984286983\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2823.8432976229133\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2823.8432976229133\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392BAC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9240.543744158367\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6134.5239988647645\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6714.574937978114\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5159.713984503769\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2856.6467659725477\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2840.144076880774\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 17646.353246744686\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3760.923357986164\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2865.416273836203\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2829.703804762445\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3899.2847372113733\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2833.845771324248\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2828.8555440137425\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2828.8306936833233\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2828.8282880637457\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2828.828061899723\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2828.8280216991884\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    198,   Neg. LLF: 2828.828021699189\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2828.8280216991884\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 198\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9270.608615908293\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6188.020250704375\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6804.392212567782\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5211.879020008315\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2858.9597542960123\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2842.751387136405\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 17740.37218075395\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3789.373514958517\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2882.920638315994\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2832.476505275564\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3918.027809505101\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2833.7857925031058\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2831.5759812461224\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 2831.527340162761\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 2831.516573807411\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    179,   Neg. LLF: 2831.5157846875554\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    189,   Neg. LLF: 2831.515739887748\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2831.5157362931477\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    208,   Neg. LLF: 2831.515736293146\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2831.5157362931477\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 208\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39285B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9295.621596729987\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6228.228197099677\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6729.516895606985\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5204.119568434536\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2862.423748119477\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2847.569555662182\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 17576.86105572601\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3772.3922344996186\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2852.872792672048\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2836.0976996493255\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3904.0437951317863\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2835.2082886475982\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2835.198498086622\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2835.1807905200185\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2835.178774711055\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2835.1782276191584\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2835.1782235261335\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2835.1782216282977\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2835.178221628298\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2835.1782216282977\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928FD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9285.171553265653\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6237.914938811258\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6788.633338530235\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5235.217351692452\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2865.101583360749\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2862.3195711039084\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3754.9262053201087\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4276.157647776308\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2852.0712510178073\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2839.7289652145305\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2938.0118445880007\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2840.3539348501286\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2837.647598543012\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2837.632216140032\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2837.6462293742143\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2837.6185522528035\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2837.6155205976856\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2837.6154929000545\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2837.6154882582177\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2837.6154882582123\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2837.6154882582177\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392BF10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9368.947548172651\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6260.185384892786\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6594.171683165283\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5244.078860938893\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2869.015737335913\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2854.8189375943502\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3751.5304030963525\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3881.0768068643492\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2863.2406330947606\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2842.495874877779\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4010.3339880747203\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2841.651379706823\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2841.7073632889897\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2841.642152421821\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2841.6391644695923\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2841.6391310621516\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2841.63912448602\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2841.6391244860197\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2841.63912448602\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CD30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9363.253142966236\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6287.131130090292\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6836.01854711252\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5255.627290075123\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2871.798124423159\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2860.1069677775577\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3754.744374230631\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3905.0719550183667\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2861.5061744787718\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2845.4744129168876\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3998.7458888457777\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2845.662811246051\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2844.198978645638\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2844.1941030983253\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2844.192329926039\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2844.192151446232\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2844.192138324859\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2844.192137832127\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2844.192137832127\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 201\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387DB70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9369.812054702947\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6254.705104565564\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6744.332992735365\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5223.814698844569\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2873.9834429240027\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2860.2870316795843\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3758.998249957732\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3895.2740952933127\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2869.3658028917025\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2847.4561988325304\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3997.4925149204273\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2846.550468311218\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2846.63474329199\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2846.541549669115\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2846.5381866661464\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2846.538157664133\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2846.5381527096915\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2846.538152709688\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2846.5381527096915\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD510>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9377.582693494507\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6246.433872191486\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6789.710383535226\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5194.039012403047\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2876.793597700672\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2862.7260364286903\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3762.8864589073073\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3899.9940462905697\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2872.2021091220568\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2850.1801433068645\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4006.8414109180294\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2849.2545217341994\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2849.342243257594\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2849.244537300486\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2849.241354405889\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2849.241325278801\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2849.2413214795693\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2849.2413214795642\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2849.2413214795693\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCE50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9376.506962042318\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6255.715450399235\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6839.913283298848\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5212.970859834575\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2878.8414449368393\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2866.3266992390154\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3765.8261406838647\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3968.1761407887516\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2862.50292321475\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2852.395505472031\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3893.773758233059\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2851.703251753427\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2851.4787991333146\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2851.4673668793303\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2851.466481783017\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2851.4662158465744\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2851.466206409751\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2851.466202642335\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2851.4662026423352\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2851.466202642335\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CFA30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9355.547834028055\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6265.1965084431085\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6885.577316126317\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5204.4699459365265\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2881.5037556909792\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2871.8584684935186\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3769.503754443568\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4064.898768430827\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2865.2110305803203\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2854.5023938725026\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3918.1139055364097\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2865.5076840525808\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2853.6587484347688\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2853.653971186236\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2853.652850132469\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2853.652786655338\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2853.6527473978026\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2853.652746464494\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2853.652746464494\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 201\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDC30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9396.86403056564\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6265.002712814481\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6830.90825030534\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5242.756995316134\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2884.3168275577455\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2871.1049634517585\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3773.1681406376742\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3996.5112051014407\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2865.3660938795347\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2857.3569820242183\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3891.0553052189593\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2857.319626510171\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2856.4175274349636\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2856.412910568477\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2856.4126125246307\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2856.4116651409427\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2856.4115264499123\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2856.411525765966\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2856.411525765966\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 201\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A27E95A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9375.302655745318\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6275.931832588745\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6964.719797629312\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5198.417017688193\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2887.0711101782736\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2882.865416055596\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3780.4743506951886\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4270.776087036914\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2868.9865295730315\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2862.641574552785\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2915.6922313993628\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2861.862848057525\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2858.619891118228\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2858.5900530365843\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2858.627557360509\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2858.5872436993122\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2858.5867709655963\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2858.5867548413216\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2858.586749724796\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2858.5867497247937\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2858.586749724796\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD0C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9434.091404620354\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6280.50871972452\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6941.771469296128\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5171.510809165671\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2889.4126551760437\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2886.8152204499297\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3786.0319131028755\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4308.003679685817\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2871.705155341459\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2869.682721030634\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2898.9725774502467\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2866.0762923798\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2861.7749146069486\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2860.9516334643977\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2860.8965558896766\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2860.8958912562584\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2860.8959316941655\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2860.895868552464\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2860.895868043026\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2860.895868043026\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883910>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9447.630227280255\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6294.622963616931\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6934.374494402875\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5185.64935619268\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2892.1438486612055\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2889.4128187496917\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3790.8610722878866\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4396.253095638247\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2873.3375446283876\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2883.9034803314926\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2886.9744810404727\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2868.693267151849\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2864.6414479712785\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2863.5713817759643\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2863.5073429239746\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2863.5067378070626\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2863.504626062924\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2863.5046063662894\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2863.5046063663035\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2863.5046063662894\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE8F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9416.417685476668\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6307.5266172198935\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6949.46917995319\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5228.3093250892725\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2895.043105770652\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2903.8097528676753\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3817.560398854522\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4057.147019588858\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2896.3187481295886\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2867.444931682709\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 3960.813552663418\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 2979.670180877584\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2866.506900467877\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2866.4774737861044\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2866.4769712544803\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2866.4761486664747\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2866.476135362746\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2866.4761266375563\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2866.4761266375726\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2866.4761266375563\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF730>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9347.189884822808\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6314.466707255081\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6902.2787751600645\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5269.209590840079\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2897.5405311540094\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 30065.46920236596\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3895.0587848235045\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2890.8245015837765\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3780.6192108711775\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2870.9150993395015\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3917.3487110827855\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2884.6725831149615\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2869.2198002975465\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2869.2157242518606\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2869.2091815060007\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2869.2091602078\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2869.2091576616385\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2869.209156477881\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2869.209156477883\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2869.209156477881\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CFB50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9396.641752575644\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6308.212487711872\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6915.416644338344\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5263.818874247843\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2899.5983734590045\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 30759.66800461708\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3901.746477781339\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2892.1640779508584\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3776.408380992115\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2874.077061826184\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2873.3655499413303\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3982.687016477268\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2871.2817672515907\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2871.2788756266827\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2871.2776377353207\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2871.2773645725765\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2871.2773591552773\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2871.27735915528\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2871.2773591552773\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A63B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9405.865624784878\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6296.777844659829\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6903.647462390509\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5255.7385693079905\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2901.9849194417343\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 30667.063115349538\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3905.672577334608\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2894.5759792924982\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3774.188542194779\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2877.4991254334595\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2876.4248558017007\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3946.5621269208714\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2873.246255000794\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2873.24006114861\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2873.240651792604\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2873.238729577003\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2873.2387174065575\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2873.238717406562\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2873.2387174065575\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 201\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5570>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9394.068099972166\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6306.3638844388615\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6826.890566292108\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5287.891804753523\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2904.7018972837695\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 30718.84116953643\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3910.1826082070156\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2897.799744965692\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3781.641683951919\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2879.1581622163994\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2879.539747291574\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3950.365281899026\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2875.962859254246\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2875.975720234708\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2875.9584177572133\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2875.9572808733265\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2875.9572779888313\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2875.9572779888404\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2875.9572779888313\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 201\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392BDC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9489.52344960622\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6321.095949340732\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6889.120955795692\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5268.028914843105\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2907.4443735102927\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 31454.2991484967\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3914.113419020002\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2900.1923731159495\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3788.0185768265123\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2881.4900310601183\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2902.5790957094264\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2885.6846185233153\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2878.986352989772\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2878.750037978005\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2878.7401989460086\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2878.7401692846342\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2878.740151146516\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2878.740151146514\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2878.740151146516\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392ACB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9496.758110099934\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6314.466368846441\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6939.002861810565\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5257.77932132835\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2909.8292182023097\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 31987.53846212651\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3920.4422529994063\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2902.2031089398174\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3790.6202909233452\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2884.0843089604973\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2888.5689591804007\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2886.0662069688387\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2881.217676449922\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2881.0242247839224\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2881.008457465659\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2881.0079591413737\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2881.007954878703\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2881.0079548787116\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2881.007954878703\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD990>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9510.855282545186\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6319.409816904843\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7045.725031013877\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5294.345920123977\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2912.346087770345\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 32086.366659985564\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3924.7178351582725\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2904.728468915089\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3795.2775032193986\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2886.214988932311\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3020.9023851660386\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2892.72045141982\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2883.580519968633\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2883.416324626207\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2883.398592127666\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2883.398139089367\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2883.39810595543\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2883.3981059554226\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2883.39810595543\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC850>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9561.847113006315\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6330.254254319974\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7048.951340369717\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5308.882662552163\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2915.115867951132\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 33104.21157799805\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3930.121312590896\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2906.917866599936\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3800.1926848813287\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2888.8619815419343\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3070.9667001303796\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2895.5098208159443\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2886.2283659267814\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2886.068508057311\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2886.050656923286\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2886.050217920114\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2886.050187129941\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2886.050187129934\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2886.050187129941\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE950>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9535.875625124785\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6352.731267211953\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7024.7364427079865\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5237.824029493701\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2917.568205011068\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 33752.370259011375\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3936.170512961359\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2908.8542544786637\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3801.6385143387033\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2891.324843829909\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2951.8405835643775\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2895.9023665943787\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2888.374194106574\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2888.044182279512\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2888.0356815332034\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2888.035182512773\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2888.0343331723734\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2888.034330135456\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2888.0343301354533\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2888.034330135456\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9577.654378200019\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6350.012670025964\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6995.807408351941\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5226.562521461063\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2919.893623790794\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 33984.852795253406\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3941.068424479623\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2911.04562246051\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3805.0419649332225\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2893.5923043149205\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3073.152315745876\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2898.9835636358234\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2890.5313201025183\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2890.3002395460985\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2890.2897840898067\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2890.289495735307\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2890.2892259236764\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2890.2892243181036\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2890.289224318103\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2890.2892243181036\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF9A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9558.781347587872\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6376.7691094311585\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 6972.598292356279\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5231.918349988064\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2922.5011607088727\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 35089.00798532451\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3946.425943014191\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2912.980105484564\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3808.6048505891936\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2896.2023797417887\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2956.5878989413995\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2900.230286431105\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2892.9878287748716\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2892.640718094916\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2892.6321635048394\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2892.6313635873857\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2892.630193926997\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2892.630187880308\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2892.630187880303\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2892.630187880308\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE140>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9503.641283984794\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6404.352097091251\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7058.430247698863\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5272.892858948266\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2925.0328274309913\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 35271.196875864436\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3950.4759804413943\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2915.5902824072846\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3813.3610091917444\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2898.3845282749953\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3391.1534920482463\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2904.372314952445\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2895.35957490485\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2895.241126952605\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2895.2215959259233\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2895.221132602842\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2895.22109341541\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2895.2210934154054\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2895.22109341541\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC0A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9494.213800866662\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6387.340223422456\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7116.05989063873\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5291.60315558684\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2928.174942578691\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2926.1909705187986\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3940.319525998739\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2914.265518182304\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3360.2849236684215\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4120.546732472274\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 2913.79384704727\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2899.830376858814\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2910.1107355345857\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 2898.5440236310806\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2898.4907085818772\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2898.4776909119146\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2898.4747249037164\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2898.474576541773\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2898.4745702573614\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2898.4745702573646\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2898.4745702573614\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDBA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9517.005222818587\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6395.317481248416\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7186.882788370615\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5439.731314838238\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2930.3607127435707\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36159.42065793839\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3957.1322756750133\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2920.3170188998806\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3821.024090501942\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2903.6695650329584\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3992.469010055882\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2910.1008446242813\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2900.813335350504\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2900.728432043873\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2900.7110464031703\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2900.710678233504\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2900.7106316817662\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2900.710631681763\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2900.7106316817662\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE860>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9558.581717868723\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6421.311259484607\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7220.722208283357\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5456.133129050151\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2933.3657974445505\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2931.24141932916\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3995.8910775294416\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2916.6679425107814\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4300.256759126645\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2913.8269096310005\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4034.9272215117758\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 2915.133616727615\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 2904.3167279494346\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2904.341071828502\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 2904.23957211635\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 2904.2219773168645\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2904.2216135902872\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2904.2215928092137\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 2904.2215902899015\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 2904.2215902899015\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2904.2215902899015\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C1C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9530.288618063956\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6439.312700787049\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7242.8437317077805\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5505.459826964417\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2935.7338846890207\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2938.834793249633\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3875.773662764607\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 16852.97948243506\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2926.585664840868\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2908.153438376954\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3999.575302217739\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2912.574476675237\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2906.489318907858\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2906.368598612985\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2906.363088497351\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2906.36083799123\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2906.360696700439\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2906.3606902262645\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2906.360690226262\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2906.3606902262645\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387DCC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9514.341604991438\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6441.220157866051\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7246.327037285649\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5529.002604467607\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2938.0893467160613\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2935.9674999608283\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4095.478844347873\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2931.5611988373857\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4110.26482224647\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2921.5821482612773\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2912.3695415891384\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3055.8955927109637\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2910.2923971833984\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2908.34886682255\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2908.300965814861\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2908.29572540769\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2908.29452980528\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2908.2944593068055\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2908.294430791154\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2908.294430091236\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2908.294430091236\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B5B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9531.9255737588\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6438.2655116761\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7280.691162633599\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5503.107273811429\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2940.3688728364586\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2938.2380577596687\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4098.8758558573145\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2932.9696957171245\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4115.396947329119\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2924.0613085250952\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2915.014078449732\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3092.2899621051947\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2912.3235886621082\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2910.5913094570096\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2910.5335498628924\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2910.5270245123224\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2910.526057690047\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2910.525996775607\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2910.5259702307226\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2910.525969522971\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2910.525969522971\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38E2170>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9551.990417141444\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6442.300417976429\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7296.8719500185\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5510.85056199549\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2942.497777191439\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3158.8920287409055\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3957.328730554507\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2928.7131707655967\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3966.882775212727\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2913.785124382156\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3992.3130464014753\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2912.659911794535\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2912.489366830687\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2912.452595635603\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2912.4501078827893\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2912.44927456628\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2912.4492403616996\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2912.4491841218855\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2912.449184121883\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2912.4491841218855\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928AF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9646.97951678481\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6461.217819849789\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7318.747275174648\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5491.400918331066\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2944.93012060364\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2981.383447965471\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3926.238707557285\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4286.23038474179\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2971.0818394460775\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2916.167733891559\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4014.1029439893528\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2928.0735421124964\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2914.9807552668753\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2914.7728412973042\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2914.764890591818\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2914.7649065719543\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2914.7636092862303\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2914.763604352973\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2914.763604352961\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2914.763604352973\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929E40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9664.23479771748\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6442.604136442967\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7387.555149007372\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5484.711413548315\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2947.083227258382\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 38156.26574391118\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3983.403480513043\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2935.365422975132\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3839.229486028832\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2919.854533026639\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4018.3151182059946\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2925.939397953526\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2916.69549713464\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2916.549928870721\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2916.526071043687\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2916.525446931158\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2916.525411114203\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2916.5254106534785\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2916.5254106534785\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929DB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9545.164658692232\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6465.032648168802\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7262.945056981034\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5552.339967989237\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2949.730601659784\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 38454.578801995085\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3987.7940050723073\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2938.379691660538\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3844.237630853415\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2922.58804123206\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4024.332552514007\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2929.6353273097893\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2919.7028238968664\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2919.6184626084846\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2919.5996474105723\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2919.5991642352647\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2919.5991071505878\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2919.5991071505864\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2919.5991071505878\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E0B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9635.079146461008\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6466.667404535416\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7320.784590935262\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5547.623411222118\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2951.834247483339\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 37446.478054071034\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3990.091557285513\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2941.5938902257512\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3848.8997505935945\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2925.072036967903\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4029.0987903191135\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2932.998285753719\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2922.4409667958003\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2922.413526210156\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2922.403420267788\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2922.402874894784\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2922.4027105711993\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2922.4027105711993\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2922.4027105711993\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F700>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9639.59214739131\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6448.653487075153\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7323.9366778335025\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5516.523199917872\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2953.686256688851\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 37422.6682745969\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3993.3268024930726\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2943.449180810131\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3848.5051416562474\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2927.129853494788\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4030.5572294899184\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2933.960416865001\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2924.2474769893433\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2924.198369791372\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2924.1824123662677\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2924.1818979263717\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2924.1817982485186\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2924.181798248518\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2924.1817982485186\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E740>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9595.912429024644\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6454.120239858988\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7284.642314872846\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5522.562912082662\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2955.6371994386445\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 37389.21436939895\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3995.402989517155\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2945.372870600722\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3848.779544105015\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2929.1341636818097\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3467.285981897943\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2935.3253831938837\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2926.015835502073\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2925.926527589827\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2925.9061526584137\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2925.905561958681\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2925.9054990930204\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2925.905499093017\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2925.9054990930204\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CED70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9594.592493102755\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6488.463187076709\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7287.876141785287\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5489.028065832925\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2957.4159541960425\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 37204.26549428241\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3997.5545051844283\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2947.2168447370227\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3849.949315991037\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2931.042615231704\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3313.002081745022\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2936.8603552382265\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2927.7700314889\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2927.6501824551947\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2927.627291903491\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2927.6265952695203\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2927.626543112181\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2927.6265426346645\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2927.6265426346645\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF2E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9599.342954785789\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6474.885075427359\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7335.016777943434\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5484.877118872799\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2959.362554880294\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 37064.71984447126\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4000.7642808995133\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2949.365925079989\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3852.8612150112613\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2932.993833690478\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3398.417710578391\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2938.9105069564657\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2929.7178133894586\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2929.6237704891214\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2929.602280808548\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2929.601600311654\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2929.6015361797745\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    199,   Neg. LLF: 2929.6015361797713\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2929.6015361797745\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 199\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CFAC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9600.192459307853\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6491.629971757915\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7331.324613557468\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5500.259605019412\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2963.297283004231\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36306.95593558315\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3999.416506425037\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2953.573597424037\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3859.6789071011963\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2937.178336904343\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3141.635478276977\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2943.5706810710435\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2934.262609347181\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2934.1117621445583\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2934.0909836947585\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2934.0903556990816\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2934.0903114828175\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2934.0903109237775\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2934.0903109237775\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883C70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9694.98515226084\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6528.6273315181315\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7340.49126442329\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5567.465779460665\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2965.7072746281146\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 37061.781793164424\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4006.8386184780784\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2955.4120141605063\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3861.8778904390756\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2939.357196525836\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3185.716846549919\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2945.690720411491\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2936.3883858071185\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2936.1691133941786\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2936.1448835214896\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2936.1440474848673\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2936.1440155233954\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2936.144014789537\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2936.144014789537\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38806D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9644.323149236898\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6511.834518220353\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7281.349332128599\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5531.0709982306125\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2968.2385453463894\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 37470.26745296339\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4010.9990504912357\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2958.1368008392965\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3865.8902850095246\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2941.8378063278574\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3545.261376334067\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2948.4269378231375\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2938.867347946423\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2938.7566201776153\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2938.735714014306\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2938.7351377965633\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2938.735085566046\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2938.735085111364\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2938.735085111364\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883F70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9652.601148002655\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6531.581766613935\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7284.618598114161\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5573.507079312708\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2970.1102238826843\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 37188.53309068847\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4014.804270712538\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2960.3202359705247\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3867.29588558988\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2943.6588373136888\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4045.780165591986\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2951.0980580911023\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2940.724187965566\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2940.6080574033886\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2940.587426386631\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2940.586835432837\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2940.586789257423\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2940.5867887600366\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2940.5867887600366\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3881F30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9633.931995040593\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6525.195356555661\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7298.257972545978\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5540.533954976916\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2972.1035981209234\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 37538.17016097391\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4017.9776355582376\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2961.8485017298417\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3868.1327251569173\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2945.777639253827\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3241.2794674792403\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2952.016459661743\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2942.653873964357\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2942.3972404015126\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2942.3858523660056\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2942.3855355289206\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2942.385050334322\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2942.3850464755906\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2942.3850464755924\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2942.3850464755906\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF1C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9682.764173365937\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6562.682487749622\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7318.830473786157\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5565.397163133552\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2975.996558994494\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2973.676865283945\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3929.891913070532\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5324.185541643354\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2961.1963412093965\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3895.718427362427\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2948.6719069189917\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2951.611283329588\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2947.9655677333376\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2946.755070890107\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2946.7491636144323\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2946.7490051690556\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2946.7481705911873\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2946.7481669777553\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2946.7481669777526\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2946.7481669777553\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9701.797828626863\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6518.56827954972\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7341.147105253782\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5601.996846038364\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2979.440921871873\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2977.289246406137\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3921.896267679172\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4751.067336184892\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2957.6424221946127\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4004.8661546607877\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2951.5376428477334\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2952.491658342684\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2951.4219309116324\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2950.251232632925\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2950.4037954951546\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2950.246549655104\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2950.2450025702756\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2950.2449970447374\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2950.244996442283\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2950.244996442283\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF9A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9672.777721361825\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6515.376618739678\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7315.67985400338\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5510.80984323932\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2981.3026852197354\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 2979.1445454456543\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3919.502035319461\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5004.0803497929555\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 2960.073393725501\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3968.95131554866\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2953.8953007140426\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2967.181130565489\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2962.056144193073\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2952.173089009273\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2954.3591321417557\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2952.1647773589084\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2952.164469440693\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2952.1644452950536\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 2952.164444104271\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 2952.1644441042718\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2952.164444104271\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CEA70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9687.562372344728\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6520.543805164551\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7303.989343310794\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5492.814137658262\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2983.662452141204\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3653.3992352242203\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4018.335865482665\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2973.0851871914924\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3941.570507114264\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2956.026523087342\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4043.261117312377\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2954.6220212862745\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 2954.6316732453247\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2954.7786907499503\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2954.608007920978\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2954.6076274125126\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2954.607616824772\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2954.607616824767\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2954.607616824772\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 201\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D900>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9696.05263687966\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6554.565805843686\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7340.7569179076345\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5491.8552330540115\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2985.8872341680863\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36009.707237545415\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4029.4240631167527\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2976.8823938231217\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3888.0292569417074\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2959.826605846868\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3034.0924637854732\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2966.9698176173715\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2957.0396873883537\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2956.9469416365678\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2956.928703089905\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2956.9278655522894\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2956.9277098095245\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2956.92770925709\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2956.92770925709\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CC10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9676.997598322901\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6519.853791323814\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7295.541767520974\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5470.131829829044\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2987.826901205717\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36189.83109353692\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4033.806670849736\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2978.7467435198605\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3888.5429571379727\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2962.1508805996577\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3008.998879916975\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2967.845674443839\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2959.171705221442\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2958.958832368364\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2958.9352827637513\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2958.934056390597\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2958.9339515281545\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2958.9339502401067\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    209,   Neg. LLF: 2958.9339502401053\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2958.9339502401067\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 209\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929B10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9658.39655871296\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6521.317332877956\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7264.464544401915\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5453.729679184694\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2989.6740346929187\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 35749.71441281483\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4036.619502127625\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2980.947485525368\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3889.3866097027612\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2964.1686349638185\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2973.1754256913237\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2967.3072733865592\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2961.0433365332347\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2960.844703950456\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2960.8253251906012\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2960.824424453248\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2960.8243230700955\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2960.8243058453486\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2960.8243052604466\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2960.8243052604466\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A8C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9662.030852420306\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6517.385141573048\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7269.910597507252\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5429.7464371960505\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2991.4359818114153\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 35604.68814195108\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4039.738917165147\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2982.715446072894\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3889.460147497147\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2966.321280467905\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2964.0259964513934\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2963.155424067837\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2975.9456654889655\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2962.6364308489738\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2962.621430295015\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2962.6197730615904\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2962.6196845661934\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2962.6196836050362\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2962.6196836050362\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 201\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B340>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9690.9225760565\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6520.722024085473\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7272.918708281379\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5458.897609724504\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2994.5337929413295\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36412.72469061441\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4044.700156467943\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2985.488537905115\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3895.4396245718576\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2969.218899479525\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2972.839208368105\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2971.3682482099275\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2966.050357329616\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 2965.764147611504\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2965.754686399305\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2965.754622232892\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2965.754434837394\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2965.7544343316695\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2965.7544343316695\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 202\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A27E9720>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9705.378333734709\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6539.431690414976\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7339.202720736514\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5483.364091789486\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2996.28338384292\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 35890.746885709625\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4048.2635123539067\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2987.5183218888046\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3895.1290964325844\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2971.03516581021\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2970.685236256881\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 2971.9869879708485\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2967.7253185688783\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2967.5774759969245\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2967.5625871918182\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2967.5622235599376\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2967.562195747596\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2967.5621949629353\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2967.5621949629353\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A950>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9746.830910158136\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6526.04492030629\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7206.458295453364\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5434.789600099719\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 2998.182043073942\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 35890.25794676892\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4051.230525588366\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2989.3523417506303\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3895.434354982962\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2973.4217384331637\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2972.8622904514477\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4077.604024681708\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2969.383102790399\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2969.3979571387113\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2969.375744224807\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2969.373717379154\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2969.373675181565\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2969.373573455206\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2969.3735734552056\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2969.373573455206\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C9A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9733.807168081245\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6534.981146401157\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7216.679438376114\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5447.300252270651\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3000.0174201057025\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 35668.626778320984\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4054.7823020184246\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2991.3816636399633\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3896.885941225077\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2975.5243898526514\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2974.6972963362464\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4080.1481944215852\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2971.2419740221703\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2971.242487789589\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2971.238099162729\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 2971.2327716778545\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 2971.232648450182\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 2971.2326479269936\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2971.2326479269936\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 203\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6560>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9695.020217457395\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6543.50505017668\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7229.94367419146\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5448.113647991331\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3001.8927387736667\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 35816.05082618291\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4056.9030471396245\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2992.946734748214\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3897.088110267444\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2977.8378946592366\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2976.2192108783356\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4082.8777809808535\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2972.8884313259473\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2972.8802096724803\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2972.877962382211\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2972.8770103191287\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2972.876175014299\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2972.8760270867424\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2972.8760218711654\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    219,   Neg. LLF: 2972.876021871167\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2972.8760218711654\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 219\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9684.062309500026\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6561.248629151452\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7302.387344144256\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5470.482110903365\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3003.948699155744\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36218.588432564626\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4061.192652320106\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2994.662946857474\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3900.124140654186\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2980.0713941641598\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2977.96656557396\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4086.0894475950554\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2974.6973081756105\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2974.6895758289834\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2974.6856355380614\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2974.684241277938\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2974.6836465346173\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2974.683567577189\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2974.6835650025205\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    219,   Neg. LLF: 2974.6835650025205\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2974.6835650025205\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 219\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38810F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9682.10917217973\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6551.596735803581\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7286.827071248653\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5447.633739989411\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3005.925479857979\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36475.45590695753\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4064.945957153538\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2996.404306988832\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3902.7862113512783\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2982.14851945344\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2979.727046155803\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4089.257679890843\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2976.5015113459067\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2976.495336720599\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2976.4864899988183\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2976.4858816885744\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2976.4851749950585\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2976.485148405819\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2976.485146381331\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    219,   Neg. LLF: 2976.485146381331\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2976.485146381331\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 219\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CFF70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9686.996636561518\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6572.351588417679\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7310.050874877974\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5448.556363934023\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3007.7360709728373\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36358.36019011204\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4067.870602928814\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2998.26633604605\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3905.131903780284\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2984.2796065851417\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2981.3810992323542\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4091.7008574082524\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2978.225833884831\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2978.220018374587\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2978.208253886579\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2978.207839859948\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2978.2073383535226\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2978.2073261156156\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2978.2073250459334\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    219,   Neg. LLF: 2978.2073250459334\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2978.2073250459334\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 219\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CFC10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9721.48130234803\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6578.8515462467885\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7336.08433919348\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5448.151768029663\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3009.731513403161\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36713.08887100425\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4071.2630517803327\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 2999.7965543124537\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3907.887685071073\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2986.38673110752\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2982.922629483259\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4094.324482076935\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2979.834536714717\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2979.827869588151\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2979.8099072074583\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2979.809369227164\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2979.809212195949\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2979.8092021109696\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2979.8092021109637\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2979.8092021109696\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC910>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9762.292007175067\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6558.463522842601\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7259.944752301373\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5476.053895292607\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3012.3336433619074\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36358.596706968194\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4073.4782180896\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3003.0797004990463\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3911.51256201268\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2988.897742853221\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2986.469101292553\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4100.786960656472\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2983.2619809337684\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2983.2579036026946\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2983.242957086227\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2983.242134157814\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2983.2417537675874\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2983.241722427352\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2983.2417217790357\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2983.2417217790357\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38818A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9806.39451143083\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6616.954930953414\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7384.634126330867\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5510.419340302643\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3014.2889134636143\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36572.551510429534\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4078.6172719488195\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3004.764072830123\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3913.3423717160504\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2990.440159085791\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2988.300869226603\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4102.693492351451\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2984.9489753530206\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2984.944199916048\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 2984.9285157056456\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2984.927754602869\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2984.9275368425347\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2984.9275143857612\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2984.927514385755\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2984.9275143857612\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A71C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9769.656611383438\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6579.224103127994\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7305.166192561249\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5502.901022203821\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3016.2256541486486\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36679.579762388246\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4081.498583798626\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3007.0439450303243\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3915.8087782351877\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2992.624124003789\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2990.3665895465892\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4102.958275568033\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2987.0645976478218\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2987.0589357683093\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2987.048848155414\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2987.048278894375\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2987.0474447663164\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2987.047416856348\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2987.0474144621658\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    219,   Neg. LLF: 2987.0474144621658\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2987.0474144621658\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 219\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9825.639928797023\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6615.330986693951\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7240.060319801951\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5487.132585142213\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3018.1874817581556\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36944.96459942506\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4085.892431589567\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3008.891353740454\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3918.9642868765877\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2994.441442736371\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2992.1844257105167\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4104.907666529491\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2988.8317571036664\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2988.8250085831323\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2988.8168736269567\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2988.815850890869\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2988.8154353074174\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2988.8154045722285\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2988.8154028058443\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    219,   Neg. LLF: 2988.8154028058443\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2988.8154028058443\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 219\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883C70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9830.796923606918\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6608.705620788785\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7199.385642834923\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5463.455914629809\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3020.407094190002\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 37220.29967266189\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4089.383509587791\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3011.313351514398\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3922.1298620341167\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2996.5052946327783\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2994.5836723219863\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4106.23129969923\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2991.183686467858\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2991.1738219543804\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2991.174310219977\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2991.1725040700867\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 2991.172170413176\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 2991.172167873372\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 2991.172167873371\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2991.172167873372\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE860>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9868.437780970165\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6619.815214755992\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7248.580436943416\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5490.745692348988\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3022.053697267316\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 36888.34626828549\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4091.169628106203\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3013.253869406143\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3923.2590111622244\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 2998.20032320857\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2996.212948134351\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4106.71827124022\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2992.773891542427\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2992.764807842612\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2992.7648053097137\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 2992.761878813889\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 2992.7618010491365\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 2992.761797277535\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2992.7617972775333\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2992.761797277535\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCE50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9834.918379287763\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6632.920468960063\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7210.08088866162\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5448.551439229023\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3023.9709004293336\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 37517.93462147468\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4093.2870033052463\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 3014.4859985431317\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3925.911824398331\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 3000.128444995404\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 2997.6838962345787\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4108.376574815629\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 2994.320124729586\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 2994.312837668571\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 2994.304656055486\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 2994.303676402405\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 2994.303517924145\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 2994.303502842677\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 2994.3035020289512\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 2994.3035020289512\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CA60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9807.331745798465\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6596.83005130624\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7232.657808973258\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5477.024174758328\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3029.8323505191124\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3026.214433840431\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3984.043029507065\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4476.633862228564\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3007.766452839596\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4051.862926758271\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3002.042037327977\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3002.4401527908813\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3000.826228117693\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3000.212679584977\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3000.280906876478\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3000.203617538158\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3000.1955204585374\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3000.195417612871\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3000.19541761287\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3000.195417612871\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D480>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9820.280652678788\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6646.933629838475\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7389.835800891666\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5557.255418742446\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3031.6247352974237\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3027.7406924139596\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3985.698639617522\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4527.805135678045\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3009.517441197292\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4048.51292752727\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3004.0002277233534\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3004.337607739012\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3003.2500167189605\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3002.141337197591\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3009.0414321052103\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3002.1234125160818\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3002.121984469704\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3002.121848561472\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3002.121842824811\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3002.1218428248067\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3002.121842824811\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CA60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9866.07776353868\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6623.971780086268\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7312.772024874603\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5481.612110993535\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3034.575075245062\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3030.347194214721\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3990.889469016808\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4592.7303970024\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3011.7963535032004\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4062.4610828313444\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3006.9307296417455\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3006.3657808985636\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3005.1100482928514\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3004.5460697821463\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3004.6711427351397\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3004.533613120674\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3004.5327818863243\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3004.532776795194\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3004.532776102555\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3004.532776102555\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AABF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9905.456507476394\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6628.296944451624\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7424.428996612884\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5501.113161816946\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3036.6578553449262\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3032.0550489605994\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3993.593758852804\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4721.029073932343\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3013.490565861319\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4074.506898864528\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3019.0753718970486\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3007.8208450739266\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3006.5036023679013\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3006.408310594192\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 3006.3970244312163\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 3006.396628656342\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 3006.3965963356386\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3006.3963032147667\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3006.396291858653\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 3006.396291858654\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3006.396291858653\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9904.561322839461\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6633.50561975641\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7332.860277919297\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5502.275267882144\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3038.739912888188\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3033.4833370490846\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3994.3982051333496\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4700.555273134935\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3015.2191909656467\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4054.47911428556\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3009.876760489994\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3008.9913942353214\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3016.27556438716\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3008.062210818947\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3008.0600234488115\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3008.0641006758597\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3008.0415133568667\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3008.041468008552\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3008.0414674833437\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3008.0414674833437\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABA90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9934.859925175602\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6642.031172238478\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7328.9659598747785\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5507.348770097407\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3040.832362199063\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3035.4515518228345\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 3997.5220441756155\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4767.438375856641\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3017.0996008602274\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4067.3984073582897\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3012.6233632921485\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3011.754605180584\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3010.774946683976\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3010.0351148300256\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3010.2264186354496\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3010.02265781966\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3010.021913445791\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3010.021909709796\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3010.021909709797\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3010.021909709796\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABB80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9911.737437555556\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6656.057655780349\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7369.88941417165\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5494.277912467196\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3042.828113039344\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3037.165964960308\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4000.8712597546337\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4769.031675087537\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3019.0425310094797\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4050.2863665066097\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3013.5557378041976\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3022.0328309004094\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3015.835026839503\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3011.8802523092863\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3013.193520173921\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3011.8638111720884\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3011.8625542526215\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3011.8625253275322\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3011.862524248978\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3011.8625242489757\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3011.862524248978\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA380>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9931.69843842584\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6657.978265542883\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7395.349306750155\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5518.353343642189\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3046.3154278016036\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3041.2068134361307\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4007.1528174587506\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4629.325699391984\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3024.1342072918296\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4044.085135595574\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3017.8907952787104\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3087.434102318978\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3016.04087624585\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3016.0262800731416\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 3016.075134022783\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3016.0208760757137\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 3016.0185535018445\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3016.0185508629975\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3016.0185465411196\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 3016.0185465411196\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3016.0185465411196\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9F90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9962.15473020892\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6661.696952702298\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7469.4288966678\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5616.296583009397\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3048.9647853162296\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3043.0704975361605\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4012.2642798022057\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4793.58440308419\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3026.03214238645\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4045.5980113483583\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3019.8296991328807\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3072.974053337849\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3018.0131252785814\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3018.004813747919\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3018.0089962144416\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3017.9789117491086\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3017.9788723726183\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3017.9788681556765\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3017.978867601654\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3017.978867601654\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABF40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9936.186628534328\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6650.867658513989\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7554.948865505483\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5622.996265455498\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3052.1688654532873\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3045.5181844403046\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4018.101746106876\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4985.36172745265\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3028.4036731839274\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4048.196654697009\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3022.183964185794\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3095.406420398236\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3020.307666729536\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3020.298425477952\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 3020.303120177129\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3020.2995919357854\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3020.2822051669577\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3020.2821395590568\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3020.282138924247\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3020.282138924247\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9F60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9965.709594302021\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6651.732677046363\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7552.982021879542\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5608.289125869856\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3055.140642278927\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3048.641721913042\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4023.533598193011\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4993.528791107961\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3031.4388534715326\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4053.3569268087576\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3025.088519446147\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3142.7515434753545\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3023.1659175926084\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3023.2685652533364\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3023.323981442277\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3023.1472795935024\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3023.1468056557746\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3023.146799774443\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3023.1467997744458\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3023.146799774443\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9950.510204919019\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6717.5570226918735\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7506.768358166981\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5628.943493283266\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3058.012870141175\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3050.286046237642\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4025.202699512541\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5223.10336283122\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3033.4750489291005\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4052.748505536816\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3026.888416419203\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4040.2128243925386\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3024.902092289067\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3036.0425727496117\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3024.888290216257\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3024.8831940875257\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3024.884248837013\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3024.8824510449354\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3024.8824408459022\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3024.8824403718218\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3024.8824403718218\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929B10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 9985.600404796129\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6712.952594800223\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7512.343697051456\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5652.285448339719\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3060.9290647809776\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3053.000755855328\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4031.2018295459793\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5516.044776260636\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3036.437459674764\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4056.8624851604372\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3029.5246641224435\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4042.8988290481766\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3027.4848289977053\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3033.8003313355593\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3027.470635553189\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3027.4711624790243\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3027.4693563077635\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3027.467145802999\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3027.467141295288\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3027.4671412952885\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3027.467141295288\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882D40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10002.59041977182\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6717.942373655236\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7556.5264742631825\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5640.744209909486\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3064.0872001349617\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3055.2506817784842\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4036.4254834993153\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6329.917522663964\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3038.91800635609\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4059.001113154661\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3031.70791677321\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4048.093713408965\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3029.673264867743\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3034.212381567101\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3029.6840547044726\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3029.6718703573097\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3029.6568594983137\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3029.6568534597895\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3029.656853459792\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3029.6568534597895\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883B50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10021.90814105084\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6732.987687151051\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7522.336068946679\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5670.871299461078\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3066.6412005923976\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3057.5936074612982\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4041.1791939290692\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6436.511800009866\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3041.9109308265233\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4061.620415661442\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3034.037750178001\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4052.1467913353486\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3031.9240352467286\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3034.8424695018925\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3032.0603296850804\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3031.907523041562\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3031.90624715433\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3031.906245642737\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3031.906245642736\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3031.906245642737\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883100>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10032.744309272422\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6725.390221535643\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7575.059398220184\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5671.226731241024\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3068.6166536899564\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3059.7197326481055\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4045.5846741963833\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6428.758496173464\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3044.7984437449663\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4063.876319613198\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3036.2473676823197\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4054.6063242350406\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3034.068931690461\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3036.463865058495\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3034.2486016128614\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3034.0512676263097\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3034.0507722111406\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3034.0507711641735\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3034.0507711641726\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3034.0507711641735\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCCA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10057.256127093879\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6718.908802250588\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7587.347334265847\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5670.506296367828\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3072.4099741973146\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3061.393365157439\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4048.7494603100895\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7127.084048395941\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3050.9027516880915\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4063.489735062154\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3038.056576393966\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4057.8400328027965\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3035.800689332915\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3037.5258424532863\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3036.05635729838\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3035.7778526634347\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3035.7775990224322\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3035.7775979919916\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3035.7775979919898\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3035.7775979919916\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE050>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10042.866510735277\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6730.747703550451\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7611.138307488023\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5663.785886827125\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3076.113531910666\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3063.4249794838042\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4053.5523050299907\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 8356.126517653815\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3060.654722138572\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4064.158278247889\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3040.0450611621227\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4058.9159660366045\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3037.7827037679526\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3039.389993524038\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3038.0248604971152\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3037.759734823361\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3037.759478457948\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3037.759477481691\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3037.759477481691\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 203\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392BF10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10071.304031558906\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6751.58371063837\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7662.804070622192\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5662.218848631936\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3081.1217821102664\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3065.0096054140413\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4056.1635120029255\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18199.70461310054\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3062.3108742487557\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4062.6064950735895\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3041.61176687477\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4055.3265265226146\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3039.4022367373705\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3041.0113910533196\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3039.671992170701\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3039.3788566986213\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3039.378381514417\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3039.3783799719563\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3039.3783799719536\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3039.3783799719563\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D900>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10085.906234170096\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6761.676340502139\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7636.23455337907\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5653.568476644175\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3087.7912520470413\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3066.6966142247065\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4059.0745564962617\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18265.57327936599\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3063.9408550687804\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4063.142035166622\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3043.1633713733786\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4055.0630037115143\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3040.98153876216\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3042.488675976586\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3041.2289121081685\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3040.9530618836984\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3040.9523027163555\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3040.9522975513337\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3040.952297551333\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3040.9522975513337\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD6F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10129.977987463548\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6776.111488666744\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7628.417779599739\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5672.7554046225705\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3092.618489299456\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3068.318625966159\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4061.7972283057093\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18305.27124077599\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3065.49243764097\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4065.6283702119717\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3044.7655679482727\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4056.4610871750556\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3042.5910666142336\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3042.7639414647983\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3042.6034816082956\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3042.558793986078\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3042.5581187143725\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3042.5581129221277\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3042.558112357702\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3042.558112357702\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CFF70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10105.69267521644\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 6747.587616557099\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7609.031832387944\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5661.150750619401\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3069.971558673865\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 19136.349545011282\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4116.037728765729\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3098.998860747269\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3879.5971077994463\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3046.0825249985064\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3219.058161518548\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3044.8069170065364\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3044.320229532381\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3044.278535797044\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3044.268811525186\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3044.264592339564\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 3044.264350225562\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3044.2643190105027\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3044.2643186542055\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3044.2643186542055\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDEA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10093.389380509212\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6749.185394886439\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7669.287119660822\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5694.284701818032\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3098.252350306836\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3074.3078947038052\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4064.9330154545805\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18160.869904150437\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3071.2258557934465\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4082.8799615827397\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3051.008431630723\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4081.7249143214162\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3048.7539024000453\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3048.9160452141587\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3048.773844019297\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3048.714774320383\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3048.714134334563\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3048.714118256409\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3048.714116443354\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3048.7141164433533\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3048.714116443354\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB640>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10107.612042467175\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6786.2226724794455\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7646.3952484728015\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5624.985748200212\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3093.702120505086\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3076.123796186953\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4066.6509766410477\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18132.33338709865\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3065.925685961482\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4084.009120389836\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3053.003326061008\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4077.941863724516\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3050.7485748003237\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3052.3366740329257\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3050.9761491738436\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3050.724029647229\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3050.7235164618887\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3050.7235136829404\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3050.7235136829377\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3050.7235136829404\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB580>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10115.905446300647\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6749.137373414473\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7667.970457769288\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5691.581767723219\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3098.536444945936\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3077.6067164280153\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4067.580580260747\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18118.365744665134\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3074.6349865328716\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4087.3039741953044\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3054.6840073782096\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4085.767509742899\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3052.3391282763732\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3052.3944690676954\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3052.3482565325285\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3052.302785360024\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3052.3022058159536\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3052.302196622302\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3052.302195692576\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3052.302195692576\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA5C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10114.92946011011\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6754.781179460354\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7627.968609898164\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5704.730678715328\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3096.0805543142733\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3080.6874108349434\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4069.1456944392476\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6271.412529830746\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3077.67581344443\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4094.878055980472\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3057.873960078172\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4097.947238409772\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3055.420032442569\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3055.547144727142\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3055.4553902425732\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3055.383498422641\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3055.382785448788\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3055.3827773756125\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3055.3827767728567\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3055.3827767728567\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8F70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10142.415857047445\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6760.180240589758\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7751.530917744265\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5667.782888219803\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3103.0927077810775\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3084.3936638645273\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4074.703064325667\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7255.684385448181\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3081.2517999367906\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4101.101288133174\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3060.9110237746363\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4108.5291371372\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3058.5933207328544\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3058.777220242977\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3058.635218624668\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3058.546368844227\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3058.5455464342504\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3058.5455297066374\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3058.5455282224248\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3058.5455282224248\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3058.5455282224248\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA590>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10140.118937760659\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6822.229724173165\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7749.839574230822\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5623.444241524614\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3106.8861399412526\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3086.01273847619\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4077.7246661971385\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18177.261166883287\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3082.685589255257\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4099.421806214787\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3062.6360765370837\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4103.447020816877\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3060.341863619322\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3060.5082625599516\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3060.366591540873\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3060.2978020383475\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3060.297071432932\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3060.2970545297776\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3060.2970528047163\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3060.2970528047163\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3060.2970528047163\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA0B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10146.393025462756\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 6748.9256445262945\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7650.4698055920135\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5666.535050789729\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3087.478498972013\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 19210.915475289014\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4135.110851960139\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3142.6874640174956\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3916.2403685136005\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3063.704742349294\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3175.7891628789093\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3062.2498879645896\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3063.708584756155\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3061.9659847161547\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3061.9302091559703\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3061.9287297743053\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3061.928353777414\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3061.928347680284\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3061.928344604929\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3061.928344604925\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3061.928344604929\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929B10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10152.551559365\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6774.147875629805\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7779.087733868247\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5685.709097113331\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3111.282560777959\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3090.547602998933\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4082.803783927826\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 10956.846884178256\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3087.4515504748347\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4106.516699623365\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3067.315349489413\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4115.278708735992\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3065.0738742699714\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3065.227812962714\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3065.1259840328394\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3065.001845092397\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3065.001470185922\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3065.001403120089\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3065.0013985728838\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3065.001398572883\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3065.0013985728838\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D480>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10165.762855865178\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6797.354174292232\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7782.4285251961555\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5649.467764533015\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3114.806946502322\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3097.191290507676\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4076.149964309482\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4566.494956767248\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3092.485992680645\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4120.42598227688\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3073.7136436787523\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4128.128825234797\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3070.9203789758058\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3071.9247122949073\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3070.9464529003963\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3070.896171759512\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3070.8956597211895\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3070.8954774546223\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3070.8954546048762\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3070.8954546048803\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3070.8954546048762\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883100>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10188.858490493183\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6837.658837637811\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7793.887284884328\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5672.406173462774\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3120.5271253930605\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3099.138621351889\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4080.6498084846553\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4698.458187900102\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3094.9747472134545\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4122.305663572126\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3075.6869567661156\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4130.420729604971\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3073.1017691800416\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3074.09472161225\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3073.143196942161\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3073.0748648109907\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3073.0746456648835\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3073.0743914116074\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3073.074377914482\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3073.0743779144887\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3073.074377914482\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38821D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10205.353177752684\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6795.665962881169\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7715.196997395931\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5747.308168707188\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3126.3936522661197\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3101.0880320488704\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4084.3023482935164\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4734.488562906328\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3097.0877788835433\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4125.419444973534\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3077.677191539825\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4135.040716742663\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3075.2289801622555\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3076.0860482600597\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3075.358694527693\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3075.174116643362\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3075.1728407813653\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3075.1725662596914\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3075.1725441223707\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3075.172544122367\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3075.1725441223707\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB6A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10213.410861525452\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6829.558815310508\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7674.330288473338\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5734.651591069446\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3122.6761322387583\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3104.1614296927432\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4088.9805089647316\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4640.434710677753\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3099.7844130047124\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4128.224603062584\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3080.923239763395\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4135.600850414384\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3078.179638596895\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3079.0707183599297\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3078.2185722071126\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3078.139293091485\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3078.1390967597818\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3078.138707870078\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3078.1386967466133\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3078.1386967466146\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3078.1386967466133\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8EB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10230.68171694147\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6805.555446119714\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7779.704999620767\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5740.556220916531\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3127.3837162084665\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3107.5501014909714\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4094.300073019967\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4679.70313894626\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3103.29528221301\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4133.937367823062\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3083.8283280650603\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4142.291049795128\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3081.1315826082428\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3082.0307544597\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3081.1567678987476\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3081.091326852335\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3081.091279119091\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3081.091059378059\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3081.091051910806\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3081.0910519108065\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3081.091051910806\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10244.499354950683\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6819.498874272636\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7806.515568689632\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5698.266086256317\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3130.529463922965\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3109.584083233267\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4096.874983915817\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4744.0155101892615\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3105.528726309303\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4136.448914482129\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3086.035080510097\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4143.561431764058\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3083.2739365423286\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3084.1992206273953\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3083.288491584074\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3083.241280897791\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3083.2411931249594\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3083.2410230027276\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3083.2410169853865\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3083.24101698539\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3083.2410169853865\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE800>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10215.43616543071\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6858.744658099808\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7770.626613892571\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5726.966463093511\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3128.406067410904\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3114.5768767836053\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4104.020737882471\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4699.118872549738\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3110.3389603231544\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4145.315334115252\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3090.2046094157863\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4149.413064125648\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3087.268430128096\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3087.418931550749\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3087.297643264348\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3087.2401495949125\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3087.2398672987556\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3087.2398640711613\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3087.2398640711517\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3087.2398640711613\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC670>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10260.627138419568\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6853.77721546775\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7768.735351408985\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5722.310766875921\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3128.6786010068517\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3118.3632261727403\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4110.03814988341\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4645.598065274355\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3113.666739365489\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4152.311222806942\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3093.7096076153425\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4157.238607395846\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3090.7575453438308\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3091.0318388778205\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3090.7775339297878\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3090.7284970584524\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3090.7282098470714\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3090.7282040969967\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3090.728203124987\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3090.728203124987\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A0B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10264.406231459201\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6820.101525064038\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7775.052118784582\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5775.03394600494\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3130.368348019064\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3120.196541663756\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4112.119010653276\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4649.616204102673\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3115.5983441387407\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4153.697007900128\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3096.0304932683266\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4158.3110242388275\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3092.9262981003512\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3093.1288050937906\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3092.9592665030123\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3092.8956340177074\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3092.8953446650526\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3092.8953354663336\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3092.8953342319865\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3092.8953342319865\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3092.8953342319865\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDFF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10277.633780518598\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6823.853400074744\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7766.560579970225\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5776.280066797066\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3131.631719012824\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3122.268993741652\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4114.0698533969935\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4643.827644740313\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3115.7856670589813\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4156.192434642153\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3098.543646729\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4158.231602798064\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3095.1167698113286\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3095.208578678023\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3095.1654018514073\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3095.084186871736\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3095.083961241212\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3095.0839569141\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3095.083956371058\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3095.083956371058\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCA00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10270.987239603355\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6810.715849183387\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7794.031743995135\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5826.073285518858\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3138.7801655940166\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3127.1726394654133\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4122.105771740415\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4699.592414739302\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3122.801646658295\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4165.624662013365\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3101.8485710820787\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4171.8747381206795\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3099.0360994618113\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3100.1989880311166\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3099.086672071113\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3099.007334022195\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3099.0070463672223\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3099.0070415112305\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3099.007040920377\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3099.007040920377\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392BBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10279.204523218516\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6861.519746642782\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7793.958922120255\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5715.5858596528915\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3140.757529601255\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3129.16185749988\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4124.603382055627\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4742.190794953327\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3121.7487562826864\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4166.895510477162\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3104.0877761117918\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4171.350234065647\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3101.2219535149347\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3102.4171799211776\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3101.283521356826\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3101.1935517146276\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3101.1933120781664\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3101.19330762115\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3101.1933076211412\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3101.19330762115\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929B10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10300.101496481537\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6854.55037516976\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7755.564837795011\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5738.496803260315\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3142.6927850049588\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3131.860798567042\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4129.765340556558\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4755.876081854151\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3122.9825059683594\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4170.932441407818\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3106.786512558062\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4173.767131356495\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3103.7990466692154\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3104.9897204334006\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3103.884441016233\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3103.768860570776\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3103.768667161194\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3103.76866309038\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3103.768663090373\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3103.76866309038\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCCA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10296.006367510123\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6864.923561579477\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7780.232739314735\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5714.240318780522\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3144.79769359689\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3134.000167868555\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4132.778379049718\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4788.973789129957\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3118.5176366109717\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4172.488999150556\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3108.623009601826\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4167.199834183317\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3105.9917354807985\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3108.4333935894365\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3105.966868212221\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3105.974129154056\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3105.9646662446744\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3105.9646181747235\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3105.964615908946\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3105.964615908945\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3105.964615908946\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD990>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10306.92190234945\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6841.207861147061\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7758.361603787163\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5780.4062814369845\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3149.028053032306\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3137.3751415248958\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4139.300294491233\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4913.648066619675\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3122.2021924515384\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4177.743376655393\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3111.4951148159516\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4176.146388863352\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3108.9760983134365\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3111.0507873611004\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3108.968243679111\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3108.9555673678033\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3108.9509794976484\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3108.95097193483\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3108.9509719348316\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3108.95097193483\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10282.395511711598\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6870.8135709263315\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7775.556002564528\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5825.541461875645\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3150.7295842153317\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3141.081008848985\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4145.411933131783\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4897.8217830276535\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3136.9950762663184\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4185.592882885679\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3115.3108432666104\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4193.153866613387\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3112.537555109887\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3112.7335300832738\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3112.563589207377\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3112.501617484175\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3112.5013745276087\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3112.5013707305043\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3112.5013707304984\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3112.5013707305043\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10289.253125821051\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6867.204828153488\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7787.601016105926\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5816.001255193245\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3155.1520221169108\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3143.2279302026172\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4149.841459257785\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4977.7677939159385\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3139.2906487048353\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4187.783511516214\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3117.501916574859\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4196.349254648487\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3114.813615408819\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3115.0124332990595\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3114.8415037773157\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3114.7769127570837\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3114.776546922927\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3114.7765424659665\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3114.776542465959\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3114.7765424659665\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A89D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10311.100128395377\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6857.263148846614\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7821.057054241041\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5829.219831734208\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3158.3634372716065\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3145.3271454339156\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4152.066777227311\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4988.041551861407\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3136.7455540445776\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4189.505376715518\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3119.5805827678496\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4197.431655719503\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3116.8824431354733\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3117.196829850864\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3116.9078765898116\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3116.8470917754657\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3116.8466132249623\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3116.8466079006203\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3116.846607900612\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3116.8466079006203\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAAD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10312.659366710472\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6858.8279889903815\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7849.144978956605\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5840.482418137375\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3159.553001342809\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3148.319861545516\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4158.203512888172\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5041.914466488912\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3139.0928445512054\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4194.277157045908\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3122.396373123428\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4202.08606312878\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3119.6920537810197\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3119.9060409246194\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3119.7265589047875\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3119.653624689461\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3119.6532499612968\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3119.6532453393015\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3119.653245339295\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3119.6532453393015\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AEF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10287.845255901177\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6937.147781731221\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7875.202019509028\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5852.5133978022495\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3163.377616776213\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3153.4895214120174\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4156.288028677545\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4688.226052826401\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3149.112851412056\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4210.6943031671535\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3127.4377400247045\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4218.552185428076\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3125.391929940733\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3126.604719101688\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3125.3878070196906\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3125.3701107400307\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3125.3690654954676\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3125.3690623270186\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3125.3690623270104\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3125.3690623270186\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29B40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10273.06666494828\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7003.483824194003\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7968.888219825383\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5718.986177486205\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3165.246713933577\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3155.5653219915557\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4160.124616730069\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4749.950078171663\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3151.377803595058\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4209.412118099442\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3130.0334178613202\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4214.261700093195\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3127.8035997524107\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3129.034829562672\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3127.821734181958\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3127.7826848902882\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3127.782011846799\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3127.7820086278475\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3127.782008627847\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3127.7820086278475\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAD70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10278.524443079832\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6979.38285068135\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7882.182213765602\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5762.086541711202\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3169.671171524722\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3158.4003127179817\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4165.156548871628\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4774.270617298367\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3154.3716975294374\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4213.062701533492\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3132.7814543549066\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4216.556320170523\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3130.4503025943586\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3131.633599964501\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3130.498141196077\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3130.427075550454\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3130.426448143939\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3130.4264443335423\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3130.4264443335423\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3130.4264443335423\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A91B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10305.959429867835\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6975.204350325994\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7860.4221443927245\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5770.966979861836\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3172.158165846812\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3160.7763269889074\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4169.093710131932\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4827.005888299622\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3156.8898645521604\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4214.814619666625\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3135.40856209432\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4216.383489769766\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3132.917887053947\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3134.079511245347\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3132.98769332344\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3132.894148190067\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3132.8938283407065\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3132.893825024771\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3132.893825024771\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3132.893825024771\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9E70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10290.865803516712\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6964.380649008963\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7845.144747478022\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5752.217204663162\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3175.7522855169873\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3162.7670842326497\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4171.086030726712\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4805.973924830321\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3158.887726949344\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4215.934186245287\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3137.6077194899267\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4219.288220119446\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3135.064237374292\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3136.171918286569\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3135.1393695456863\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3135.038230624531\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3135.0376339312616\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3135.0376284515014\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3135.037627904025\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3135.037627904025\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928A30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10326.125688486287\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6951.093968136516\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7830.24999358523\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5763.8165031118315\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3177.5713904323566\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3165.3696547465715\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4175.620618401074\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4830.524595852472\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3161.5023126591605\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4219.118599229547\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3140.326827046625\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4221.33187061645\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3137.644041063004\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3138.7385032307393\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3137.738586820882\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3137.6169924124056\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3137.616630158232\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3137.6166257073824\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3137.6166257073737\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3137.6166257073824\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10330.742117167672\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6963.7707080879045\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7894.773661850579\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5722.8122774314625\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3179.3642248042743\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3167.85260616938\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4180.567043545481\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4855.170563149695\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3163.9758619338263\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4222.085464755286\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3142.936928400283\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4223.505184812993\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3140.135045436571\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3141.2240548428545\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3140.239050114152\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3140.1064536931754\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3140.1061669718893\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3140.106161942758\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3140.106161942749\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3140.106161942758\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882890>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10356.868642286943\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6947.3390676400195\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7857.584450693366\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5723.565258037286\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3183.183996548753\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3169.976714183948\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4182.463547527189\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4863.701385345473\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3166.1560881537216\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4223.964010664476\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3145.2366395136683\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4226.074062210079\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3142.2527377694814\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3142.4720501007105\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3142.287886828225\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3142.2214014599936\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3142.2211055200314\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3142.221101715225\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3142.2211017152167\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3142.221101715225\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883B80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10351.883490613676\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6942.269844182978\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7852.598659838319\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5753.489724232814\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3184.4169567125336\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3173.466854794805\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4189.437091944055\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4982.739233829965\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3169.808130047492\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4229.494321599359\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3148.3613131760344\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4230.618484355765\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3145.499490915974\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3145.7596916298744\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3145.5237263772638\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3145.4698998883678\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3145.469680693582\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3145.4696776620267\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3145.469677662022\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3145.4696776620267\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9E70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10418.798874472825\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6962.025467300577\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7895.658839244789\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5731.146100998745\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3186.969273728243\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3175.7042406127853\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4192.792563864879\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5019.762609957769\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3170.0390935852743\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4231.8062460300025\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3150.688686459\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4233.27661235478\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3147.744523420705\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3147.9208111331777\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3147.7748098883176\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3147.712600268114\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3147.7123807894072\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3147.712377427751\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3147.712377427745\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3147.712377427751\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF6D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10384.657660266186\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6975.487812963876\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7928.061769922256\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5741.694496966191\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3189.998830283534\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3178.4410264141825\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4198.375494992035\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5157.199214329854\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3172.633518792295\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4235.560615098122\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3153.22932441752\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4238.028061847233\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3150.4156541772\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3150.5779175161433\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3150.442939814482\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3150.3829784046866\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3150.3827619016024\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3150.3827588438585\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3150.3827588438535\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3150.3827588438585\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE860>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10407.67567542472\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 6987.2088773803625\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7928.4707961248905\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5750.73755637553\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3194.304677896873\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3180.5516013761453\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4201.01998125931\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5256.769683524238\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3166.328211101002\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4235.7690313047215\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3155.012910346498\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4233.33882988216\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3152.4270803117456\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3153.896289461939\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3152.490763953727\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3152.4033939087385\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3152.4030379027754\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3152.403032497332\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3152.4030324973264\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3152.403032497332\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CED40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10477.5802413532\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7009.0583081746445\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7905.7277509255755\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5785.606891337797\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3193.700407011036\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3184.5192884406797\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4208.162484849148\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5938.766156578329\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3165.431892083875\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4240.4699176032\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3158.343461361009\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4234.958223054067\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3156.3359915491355\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3156.4310099357645\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3156.538425108568\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3156.3048257719397\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3156.304783168218\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3156.3047814482343\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3156.3047814482343\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3156.3047814482343\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AAA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10508.851524582902\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7049.020586355033\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 8021.171192574215\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5821.359812048309\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3196.0065546873593\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3186.558943523637\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4210.933788750801\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6900.797547909655\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3163.4382843049584\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4276.769108962548\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3160.456527291146\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3158.9929945224258\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3158.809093961924\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3158.4796671149184\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3158.3909729146503\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3158.3814262477604\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3158.381350182476\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3158.3810418616295\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3158.3810408366453\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3158.381040836645\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3158.3810408366453\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883CA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10444.522628295286\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7019.195788463471\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7957.008806019052\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5795.02948082537\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3201.319254831083\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3189.0938537127067\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4216.93455359746\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 8531.803431268301\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3166.416252529455\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4258.235562341075\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3162.7917820922103\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 3183.150456379939\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3160.7870306418226\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3160.824947761958\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3160.773617923922\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3160.7758297766613\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3160.772280177045\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3160.772167668635\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3160.772167668635\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3160.772167668635\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A56C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10524.974513340283\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7011.201623399504\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7949.857891857558\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5801.5482384962515\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3202.8227435630224\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3191.9655042143986\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4221.630675827402\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18799.393384625982\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3170.501799301644\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4242.582510707582\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3165.709182601392\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4235.762799414246\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3163.6877716119893\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3163.6608454878224\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 3163.665645252876\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3163.6539168986237\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3163.644377297636\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3163.6443749552873\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3163.644374955287\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3163.6443749552873\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C460>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10457.64064074222\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7061.884766693374\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 8065.533592338943\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5842.212613469439\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3204.646641718632\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3195.0815837492337\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4228.213567649533\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18871.06744516681\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3174.899483157996\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4245.4337132266755\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3168.738508224851\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4226.769187980095\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3166.564455931333\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3166.7755547264105\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3166.624979132429\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3166.5428845164215\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3166.54279085466\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3166.5427885716126\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3166.5427885716144\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3166.5427885716126\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5570>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10493.897476068245\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7041.431613696846\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 8018.7144495843195\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5826.825921394779\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3208.0342312402954\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3197.15865164213\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4230.106981023973\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18914.043922862405\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3174.263493055577\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4241.34545695841\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3170.633534205612\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4239.155965766971\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3168.5930830488337\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3168.560673055016\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 3168.5441515910416\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 3168.5247422931398\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 3168.523626161881\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 3168.5235615639285\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 3168.523560920037\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3168.523560920037\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDEA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10534.46710712436\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7039.748529558017\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7947.762748633571\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5874.242288982523\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3208.7859459400825\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3200.345950909962\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4236.852104421509\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18984.073941600218\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3178.527645292212\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4244.978833643018\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3173.7134165257526\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4219.959792974949\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3171.5394271386695\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3171.511251558469\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 3171.5057345051373\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 3171.502466879004\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 3171.493137093518\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3171.4929691833727\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 3171.49296918338\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3171.4929691833727\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD240>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10513.555562300717\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7109.363849384494\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7982.487931210412\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5838.1231089428165\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3218.3392954424057\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3205.649335442681\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4226.377939394354\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5537.98697356724\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3202.0115222903937\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4286.365675319986\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3179.205000286354\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4292.426501847825\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3177.2851940733003\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3178.510492873015\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3177.298059495183\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3177.265436593803\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3177.2648662979527\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3177.264865036374\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3177.264865036371\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3177.264865036374\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABFD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10588.9337363442\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7048.247747845708\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8016.802742312132\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5886.409811329528\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3211.3797236560326\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4366.398557168173\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 20101.672044995816\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4314.8707582727375\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3187.8716908999622\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3195.5567903562032\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3193.9371128051253\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3183.292576283372\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3201.904577006591\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3182.126756172393\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3182.394161065647\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3182.1200602965555\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3182.116931817836\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3182.11692699147\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3182.116926991469\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3182.11692699147\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB580>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10598.202172619249\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7065.443669854623\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7923.376150339109\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5921.14297838772\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3213.4548804035044\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4438.0430867274645\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4224.034942587382\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4610.670589821348\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4302.5049599761915\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3197.0163295420907\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3186.017820424489\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4326.610834339508\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3184.6814334430223\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3184.5456546503437\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3184.5374177470608\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3184.537431486304\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3184.531212828467\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3184.5310423083247\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3184.5310356017267\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3184.5310339381112\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 3184.5310339381112\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3184.5310339381112\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9E40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10570.022957612273\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7077.786699273183\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7696.75243223164\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5761.340758896115\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3215.3748589384095\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4463.461127066149\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4212.470615481709\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4536.900327324858\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4308.311286293253\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3208.3735715493012\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3188.4624209472536\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4365.099682465252\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3187.009439836439\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3186.885912348967\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3186.8905436168325\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3186.8591626105235\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3186.855921229414\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3186.8556341748404\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3186.8555967890197\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3186.8555963004937\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3186.8555963004937\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABB80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10610.577431019723\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7082.1025683946955\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7718.861269379759\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5732.1120366969135\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3217.40625950535\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4491.640577181766\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4209.20244454947\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4499.588749403855\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3201.185861489987\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3211.558492646089\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3225.0501708176134\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3191.2074579537766\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3189.592796156358\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3190.0268188306327\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3189.1229028848456\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3189.1924056058892\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3189.1112535275734\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3189.109168015476\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3189.1091596792567\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3189.1091565048273\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3189.109156504822\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3189.1091565048273\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28FD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10610.70400110883\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7071.5988430886555\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7710.082778096468\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5746.847374350745\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3219.8022869606584\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4495.498913241008\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4213.111865504832\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4507.267880792073\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3203.9372338767134\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3214.1663007481743\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3227.5367921138995\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3193.779727686513\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3192.034976543102\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3192.747344832863\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3191.642909282829\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3191.6770047150962\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3191.6317249628637\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3191.6296087892933\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3191.6296036281783\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3191.629602880401\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3191.629602880401\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B220>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10650.7973891373\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7086.599277893214\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7744.5144773415395\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5785.843554529663\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3222.810950561361\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4500.207797729783\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4218.317752653501\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4520.379242307984\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3210.1549204782996\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3216.79264544311\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3245.6757980607417\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3196.735925873102\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3195.2836332395054\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3195.731291297373\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3194.5160278542826\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3195.2649421511546\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3194.5041627009164\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3194.5034797689545\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3194.503472972947\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3194.50347231004\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3194.50347231004\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A3B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10659.952800008024\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7114.750477798046\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7896.266463922601\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5859.737388838206\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3225.7894644131025\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4504.9898411251725\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4223.297496218784\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4532.4358142435285\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3219.8064790671415\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3219.2769198746287\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3200.406156832958\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3213.288950418628\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 3208.5875585018002\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 3197.390174898096\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3197.490662545007\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 3197.6523433319962\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 3197.339001992953\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3197.338181970493\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3197.3381637653047\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3197.3381611216846\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3197.338161121686\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3197.3381611216846\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A9E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10669.47730518632\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7096.510581167056\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7910.067334047362\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5905.4013397008985\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3228.125062015255\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4508.10480262507\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4226.776692417978\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4544.649336904959\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3234.6526165326122\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3221.5992800630697\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3201.821636426543\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3235.7436307721737\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 3201.74584399366\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 3199.7419979859787\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3199.6774375863706\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3199.654824996581\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3199.651738873226\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3199.6515943850072\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3199.6515714120883\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3199.651570544076\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3199.651570544076\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AD70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10651.259204730517\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7141.949795978033\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7910.8861526031305\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5934.111654307497\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3233.17224208692\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4515.184200432376\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4234.398067442946\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4554.543569866841\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3357.075245919821\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3225.852119451985\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3205.683297033882\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4409.413202788008\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3204.239462232111\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3204.219022203745\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3204.202379182364\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3204.185756443021\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 3204.1851895938407\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3204.184278196607\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3204.184174793505\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3204.184164852708\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 3204.1841648527075\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3204.184164852708\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C297B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10545.253274330289\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7158.461235227915\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 8119.110369507927\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6019.734971795944\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3251.1197442249736\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3237.522534569114\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4262.8347387854155\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5424.2853154982595\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3231.815395951742\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4332.999261230321\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3209.521633613889\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4343.890010739467\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3207.8546511891664\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3208.5209540406336\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3207.852974788133\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3207.8315314317897\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3207.8313155231954\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3207.8313133373367\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3207.8313112095498\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3207.8313112095493\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3207.8313112095498\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5630>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10575.974265032924\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7176.737249995116\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 8153.068467586364\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5953.46276295487\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3254.5831173844635\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3239.630437894213\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4265.397946678444\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5486.315675213456\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3234.367088582495\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4332.498840565254\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3211.921802576648\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4342.158902463068\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3210.18573584313\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3211.081866000137\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3210.1833521387125\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3210.164610616352\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3210.164340899516\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3210.164338444898\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3210.1643360686403\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3210.1643360686403\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3210.1643360686403\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883100>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10655.771403676239\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7184.192373889145\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 8078.194062209165\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5987.167372788474\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3259.68581059747\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3241.8425319612215\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4266.538783178783\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5493.567788447519\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3237.581228576898\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4332.988058146304\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3214.2427681664385\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4339.801204567923\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3212.4036343772755\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3213.6119830396883\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3212.400646191745\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3212.384765161666\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3212.3844545891866\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3212.384454403261\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3212.384454403261\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 202\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A860>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10703.065073648882\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7177.792887018262\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 8083.705373781503\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5984.226257710734\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3264.056169616261\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3243.7900512599444\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4267.335491785218\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5487.6808635340785\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3238.341725137113\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4333.682222430114\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3216.450265986413\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4339.655293429988\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3214.5628681090802\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3215.8454670225547\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3214.5581846256496\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3214.543734637571\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3214.543292414692\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3214.5432916391283\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3214.5432916391283\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 202\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B5E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10742.457559640432\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7169.507978779317\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 8032.797571310679\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5999.531015446879\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3267.219534890328\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3246.258767190533\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4271.096548648988\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5516.327406221391\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3237.6228024871525\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4336.330142393348\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3218.8963731115673\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4342.13580218674\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3216.989691075377\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3218.3782260820626\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3216.9842916557645\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3216.9694712994124\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3216.9688483603504\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3216.9688448541383\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3216.9688422934923\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3216.9688422934923\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3216.9688422934923\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28910>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10718.583976142047\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7156.060518801874\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7981.3752822172555\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6017.989735580903\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3247.688144437162\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4529.9306692894725\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4246.980538605947\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4574.7644601698685\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3552.2710623369444\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3240.914252878073\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3220.652185417681\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4424.4629638746\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3219.2168320695555\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3219.106687876849\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3219.0900756468477\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3219.069113013035\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 3219.0688380381976\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3219.0687230407543\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3219.068638300537\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3219.0686305174145\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 3219.0686305174177\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3219.0686305174145\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F8E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10689.038281966023\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7160.512785068686\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7943.6331279858405\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6050.010810383745\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3250.0445872744376\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4658.899723989831\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4256.168976952264\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4480.840436819349\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3240.2153011405744\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4345.6571775797975\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3222.7655351614935\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3261.4791872290116\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3223.027841927007\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3221.3651041994817\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3221.5516465489072\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3221.370000732564\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3221.342913454958\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3221.3427854472457\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3221.342784098867\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3221.342784098868\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3221.342784098867\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C460>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10715.47984483809\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7216.149882176855\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 8116.180810433589\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5999.122151985421\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3271.2232558270944\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3254.7442785299127\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4282.683470627218\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5644.237122394286\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3236.088458267152\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4338.425361257636\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3226.9333301294528\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4339.235265259815\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3225.2255780006117\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3239.552879224222\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3225.222929693332\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3225.2103758381704\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3225.2059518245314\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3225.2059203967815\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3225.2059203967783\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3225.2059203967815\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B5B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10848.256794763813\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 7201.028076359933\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 8147.616486024129\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 5998.145996802625\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 3275.9373793491905\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 3257.277191548531\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 4287.8961572887365\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5756.60979286248\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 3238.6805769223347\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4339.802314547749\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 3229.490528609887\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4341.421098974131\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3227.7121131903373\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3234.5985143102052\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3227.7225251634773\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3227.6951859080355\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3227.6926377000977\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3227.692612813623\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3227.692612813621\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3227.692612813623\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883C70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10755.431322791312\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7209.160386496866\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8096.775297249368\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6021.572755022036\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3259.2441423696287\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4692.4851831907845\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4269.76466946147\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4505.642507011637\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3249.358259504995\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4059.8769426998074\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3231.673572823337\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3271.259734318608\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3231.313901731869\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3230.2919342606547\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3230.290481113463\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3230.3160111349216\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3230.272263733584\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3230.272054149538\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3230.272052726792\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3230.272052726794\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3230.272052726792\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882D40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10723.254343100129\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7228.039799515345\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8105.651773758445\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6062.8691006581985\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3261.3480677564726\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 20128.301894159136\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4340.093618747969\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4610.894431679237\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4221.945097550794\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3234.2562914427067\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3244.3401811423887\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3247.077722779366\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3232.347856732662\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3232.520183887791\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3232.3447859095972\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3232.338788550734\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3232.338759052942\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3232.338757151071\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3232.338757151076\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3232.338757151071\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28A60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10704.537616643007\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7207.119531145163\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8112.9569585615345\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5992.837573071021\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3263.2689713079244\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 20167.183779929877\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4344.150982414201\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4596.583727524765\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4214.624848470397\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3236.1946133931897\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3272.4103003170026\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3246.8688054967497\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3234.3131941912243\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3234.3454867331716\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3234.3174979574933\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3234.3031547229275\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3234.3031487085104\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3234.3031487085063\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3234.3031487085104\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 202\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B5B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10706.047558593837\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7209.228670538391\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8145.100275312022\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5985.638262837918\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3265.475037455223\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 20207.51753206242\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4349.46969405012\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4579.585228821539\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4205.125509066942\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3238.240298258956\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3603.6851883674553\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3244.546104357788\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3236.4055379212227\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3236.4445875460597\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3236.406974975118\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3236.3958620006024\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3236.395858738568\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3236.395858738567\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3236.395858738568\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 202\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B040>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10727.461224228333\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7211.855938557079\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8122.90708484533\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6036.029881615112\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3267.7470192053133\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 20233.28662642371\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4354.7189632274185\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4582.6410074114465\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4206.126273807744\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3240.4995700197796\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3534.688494533522\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3245.8190765790882\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3238.6380572705502\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3238.710795904358\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3238.6369339783546\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3238.628423698122\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3238.628422128644\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3238.628422128644\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3238.628422128644\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 202\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A0B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10724.940836173637\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7236.339899517283\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8203.204379437575\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5992.136129427803\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3270.0734995151497\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 20255.514085830466\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4359.9828855024025\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4580.89397363325\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4203.501063264834\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3242.667298312221\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3705.5964224274703\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3247.046292542588\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3240.8032159724326\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3241.080658884258\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3240.796606758645\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3240.7934266731554\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3240.793423361454\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3240.793423361454\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3240.793423361454\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 201\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B8B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10710.754265206975\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7227.780652869391\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8163.765746555023\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5947.76201679006\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3272.1707824662853\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 20288.010194277973\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4365.199061148434\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4419.699725559452\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4201.984224438296\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3244.7526729260035\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4444.638496943107\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3248.2913489724306\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3242.8739797528724\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3243.6230248707525\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3242.8651846558196\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3242.863668153792\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3242.8636619317294\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3242.863661931726\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3242.8636619317294\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 201\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C297E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10717.342977195012\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7233.406602255502\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8110.215024943915\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5901.901463688597\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3274.240355102522\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 20327.07645123796\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4369.432317059122\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3718.2305258134365\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4188.8443033112835\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3246.543033156858\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4454.465065067079\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3247.0822720442766\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3244.6975279056724\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3245.049147646876\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3244.6880585128783\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3244.6856332151783\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3244.685590727151\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3244.6855790818054\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3244.685579081801\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3244.6855790818054\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28C70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10705.241881780134\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7238.809328194966\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8074.293925039677\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5910.179669091327\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3276.0941942765457\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 8989.880261684619\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4373.13109086089\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3864.9912104677915\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4184.233345416313\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3248.3808837718298\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4459.430577303467\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3247.9668089394863\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3246.509848859695\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3246.5159695890657\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3246.527219394754\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3246.4962960910566\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3246.4962145163277\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3246.4962127276785\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3246.4962127276726\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3246.4962127276785\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29C90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10718.412013168238\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7243.654540018939\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8050.01973234688\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5913.007361640492\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3278.1549379324915\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7226.825040614337\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4376.187981701364\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4567.217305754717\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4175.5973352448855\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3249.684458563609\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3273.487759751565\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3248.7162569099564\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3248.282820315738\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3248.2597996347067\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3248.2562412293473\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3248.2560584872117\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 3248.25596102492\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3248.2559497054326\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3248.255949236252\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3248.255949236252\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A2F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10718.52099547534\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7246.617504593412\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8048.105528854031\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5898.809993819773\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3280.076161820346\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6824.585458895139\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4379.576095586248\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4562.343198953101\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4177.618341977721\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3252.0971868069746\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3252.7278674269983\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3265.479255857375\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3250.1572543653224\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3250.122816770452\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3250.1163524860085\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3250.1159447647633\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 3250.1159144845706\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 3250.115914484568\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3250.1159144845706\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 200\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28DF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10719.581700337378\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7249.929988431734\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8084.462007162119\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5882.62817449833\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3282.1434217553174\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6599.509827326688\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4382.950947816061\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4561.776824235962\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4188.8053519333225\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3258.49314510156\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3254.089137603393\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3260.7573199558847\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3251.9644604230753\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3251.944399870385\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3251.943646582135\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3251.9396659340073\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3251.9389268915675\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3251.938924732175\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3251.9389247321706\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3251.938924732175\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883C70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10759.04070879885\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7261.290702035467\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8064.09729299044\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5895.042848664248\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3284.3185196675086\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6701.056142240015\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4387.102657423379\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4566.23802145001\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4190.32593352305\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3259.112044826331\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3256.4260934237586\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3262.9737664975787\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3254.1354385005197\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3254.1121899500126\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3254.1092573134074\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3254.109615160474\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3254.1084446111936\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3254.1084369233877\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3254.1084369233854\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3254.1084369233877\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38810F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10801.418519036375\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7253.657856440983\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8155.8389132499915\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5923.405145449959\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3286.4403825729587\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6690.468246796153\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4390.507725584748\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4569.148945886762\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4196.373776325665\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3262.820273997838\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3258.352975258422\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3265.969810263936\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3256.171379535933\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3256.152563747811\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3256.1536772199215\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3256.146216186271\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3256.145570231589\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3256.1455677100676\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3256.1455677100626\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3256.1455677100676\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C293C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10867.443502640377\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7293.688295747479\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8093.223410113669\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5955.029217123598\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3288.6527394119157\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6704.3681567243075\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4394.118888533466\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4573.372117065696\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4201.331831918409\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3265.5250876293203\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3260.4907209744024\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3269.376707356349\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3258.341234895204\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3258.324500226283\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3258.3261052260264\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3258.3162861299115\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3258.3156498963435\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3258.3156465832913\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3258.3156460283826\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3258.3156460283826\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A980>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10773.688859272312\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7290.90446214881\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8180.911800598866\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5919.761320260734\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3291.1494706000267\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6835.295631254857\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4396.292852807823\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4597.469368305034\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4219.346733543271\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3264.9378047417117\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3263.485752830621\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3302.4996085792227\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3260.964267780002\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3260.938251836374\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3260.935504851128\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3260.932255045675\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 3260.9312645664404\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3260.931219485349\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3260.9312182719186\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 3260.9312182719186\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3260.9312182719186\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28790>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10793.751435561106\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7313.308168877643\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8149.598650554772\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5908.814203393631\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3293.0598802849127\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6774.459348300956\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4400.821119781758\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4594.699069806453\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4218.90712112646\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3268.729068538136\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3265.048373689845\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3283.5251445044764\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3262.8558499565124\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3262.837233043899\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3262.83848972908\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3262.827809638182\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3262.826899532037\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3262.826895195178\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3262.8268945924083\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3262.8268945924083\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29F30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10801.416884815011\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7325.558962942889\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8116.888382904082\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5883.289065005278\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3294.8017200175523\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6703.752682849501\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4403.009353804788\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4587.563303153658\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4213.591263312698\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3271.5916102636033\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3266.5687476061175\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3280.2628751009206\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3264.4519205888973\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3264.435560467139\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3264.4370848050166\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3264.425372118918\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3264.4246465327974\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3264.424642470104\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3264.424641741903\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3264.424641741903\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C295A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10791.831357228795\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7344.559839789701\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8094.447326105317\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5890.299638685494\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3296.3685206126383\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6653.720076761429\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4405.229959131358\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4584.267606323601\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4210.1973049350345\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3272.1796240844615\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3268.168047720327\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3285.307704697366\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3266.0307581620978\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3266.010583108038\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3266.0127263996246\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3266.003790522288\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3266.003269089154\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3266.0032660872903\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3266.0032660872866\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3266.0032660872903\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2ADA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10807.764397581088\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7332.687099148061\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8114.428133748892\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5897.315623267588\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3299.8181900381896\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6694.329802556849\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4406.451882782596\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4588.472372617578\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4220.11986651236\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3279.3166447649082\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3272.2400180378377\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3279.5330355487276\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3270.0843483918\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3270.069946080952\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3270.070910553928\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3270.0606126060343\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3270.060056385504\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3270.0600531506666\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3270.0600524843567\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3270.0600524843567\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29BA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10825.52713257086\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7363.89435493104\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8150.40528787505\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5924.166533871319\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3302.6690431268976\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6647.346325428089\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4409.023144158687\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4603.702708166925\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4243.283380351188\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3290.947464646248\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3274.715624714256\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3284.0356998086368\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3272.7522964235613\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3272.725120885487\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3272.722489958159\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3272.7211788320956\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 3272.72050804214\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3272.720498184922\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 3272.72049818492\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3272.720498184922\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C285B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10832.486681561497\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7338.353814166125\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8121.465500291663\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5921.945065102198\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3304.6259407512184\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6632.785695466721\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4411.930920570072\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4605.491422359291\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4243.182581174041\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3293.5810101244124\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3276.7542013626244\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3287.9052128397425\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3274.8239576116835\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3274.7967706134186\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3274.794053708582\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3274.7924859434725\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 3274.791856072021\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3274.791846077659\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 3274.7918460776573\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3274.791846077659\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29E70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10827.106108108179\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7355.751551913121\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8092.187549261876\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5917.063619419438\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3306.2054105137995\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6686.488395002545\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4414.75052357148\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4597.908468048223\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4228.546532720839\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3287.063922833754\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3278.531791461948\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3290.611654358743\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3276.5257475388644\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3276.5100541867905\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3276.509013302394\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3276.5005488322363\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3276.500074215797\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3276.5000714372036\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3276.5000706065453\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3276.5000706065453\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B880>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10837.196027023567\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7366.51419152315\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8098.631843647696\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5923.4814306390035\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3307.7592792698847\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6715.789605404835\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4416.711768803525\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4599.068033107722\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4223.318601230896\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 3286.8505124793296\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3280.212931779056\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3288.5651823108246\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3278.13348954349\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3278.118522350029\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3278.1187884438386\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3278.108597475818\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3278.1079983750533\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3278.107995045298\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3278.1079942765546\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3278.1079942765546\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B070>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10817.030926389072\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7315.079771745475\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8022.668116028901\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5848.42466356126\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3313.9623168762664\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4359.207056164683\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4886.049414800518\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4446.017113590286\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3303.6237546103293\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4512.030391074415\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3291.3999985726714\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3286.3943708033985\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3294.517137979109\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3284.7260564732383\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3319.570903227972\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 3284.708949048859\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3284.708801870049\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3284.7087711976433\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3284.7087705913023\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3284.7087705913023\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3881D20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10851.266354896285\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7334.95220381836\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8190.632558530907\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5903.6526291386335\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3316.0089630575108\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4377.446632026418\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5034.091352285759\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4443.592247757504\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3306.0482503794465\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4501.426259108601\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3293.072735907303\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3288.6288511612806\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3296.509268664736\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3286.8843303196822\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3303.040676452846\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 3286.872326517907\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3286.8683632944303\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3286.8683499629897\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3286.8683475875578\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3286.868347587556\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3286.8683475875578\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AA10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10841.515994590605\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7342.323501910086\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8037.644154134539\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5885.180684464811\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3317.5432742270764\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4377.340150894182\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5015.371327711211\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4444.566750617103\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3307.8424158143284\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4501.800581287136\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3294.4815129082535\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3289.615070991398\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3298.2480758130946\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3288.6685480951073\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3289.385641780601\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3288.6569507485247\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3288.6551698730827\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3288.655123021243\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3288.6551033699347\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3288.6551033699334\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3288.6551033699347\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B190>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10845.26647049372\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7344.355126453761\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8049.906163439878\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5895.256144813833\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3320.4009773567573\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4378.934773877789\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4986.724855315451\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4451.558361230268\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3310.6982814313697\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4508.703083018125\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3297.3949095447915\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3291.8322228597126\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3294.173202910092\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3297.281816296224\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3291.4973636219465\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3291.4915402550528\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3291.4901237466775\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3291.490103990226\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3291.4900981102046\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3291.4900981101946\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3291.4900981102046\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10858.193069787205\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7355.002761624082\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8071.478578906038\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5890.239376248488\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3322.515187751388\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4385.57196732002\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5018.514922708569\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4455.066173917327\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3313.1970768627025\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4509.387262405402\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3299.305413856737\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3294.450794075832\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3295.458763852985\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3293.727794434901\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3293.7064709717697\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3293.720246740012\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3293.6943419788595\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3293.694068527641\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3293.694064500725\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3293.6940609461126\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3293.6940609461153\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3293.6940609461126\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28310>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10864.972028570402\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7329.605594932177\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8069.78428689416\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5876.762515811809\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3324.505142618132\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4390.189119208093\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5056.128753046682\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4455.630655877423\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3315.4308349470584\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4510.272560181894\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3301.1811899638105\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3296.0837904691393\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3297.741193343387\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3302.7823679355106\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3295.7283017177288\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3295.7134209410888\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3295.7118507800283\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3295.711782235181\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3295.7117470743933\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3295.7117470743997\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3295.7117470743933\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28DF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10891.064502495221\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7327.211074948978\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8132.7823036264435\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5864.485822529237\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3326.2774329491995\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4394.974860413133\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5078.561741039568\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4457.822656459675\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3317.539207229849\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4510.123367806968\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3302.909622848101\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3299.302201938716\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3299.3203528944514\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3297.6782020165097\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3301.622110640225\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 3297.664024423628\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3297.662631398531\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3297.662542009909\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3297.6625301777876\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3297.662529519176\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3297.662529519176\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AF80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10879.549443887965\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7330.739619872541\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8116.341805116137\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5855.705910033892\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3328.303632522525\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4399.466227402731\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5109.925054782067\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4459.675358630624\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3319.6235211367307\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4511.570154141553\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3304.9494220300085\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3300.385955861696\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3301.3954192883693\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3299.6793409869165\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3299.646954072079\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3299.654917767455\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3299.6424518501954\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3299.6423459518583\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3299.6423447604902\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3299.6423443011467\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3299.6423443011467\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C298D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10929.026999183247\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7336.3249956443\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8110.445241093947\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5861.473609690751\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3331.838745767263\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4405.813072361969\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5134.215125836354\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4466.389387825357\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3322.9718891628672\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4517.447522542743\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3308.3161046495197\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3303.125382863301\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3313.31909273202\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3304.121798463644\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3302.8338165002406\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3302.8283091770786\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3302.8282406862786\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3302.8281530420677\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3302.8281523432033\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3302.8281523432033\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BFD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10938.39669341052\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7384.132173670754\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8072.34917860303\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5902.361010143131\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3333.97725561037\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4414.83700288876\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5221.7028647706275\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4469.252197856323\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3325.1122117882387\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4515.7175159752405\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3310.323062620263\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3305.4533229292165\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3314.8448902973532\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3306.8898219939147\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3304.921767060033\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3304.9088288480743\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3304.9064608007966\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3304.9063205078583\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3304.906267408918\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3304.906266692248\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3304.906266692248\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10942.94707843859\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7343.635674903795\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8091.312956683545\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5869.996905551314\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3335.6213542299206\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4414.143557079286\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5180.663753704009\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4470.273780490681\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3326.967373147947\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4518.805215424068\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3312.1509788855374\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3306.9656152044554\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3308.7890596655707\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3310.042427282596\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3306.708921261658\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3306.7065494254075\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3306.7056662748987\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3306.7056370151786\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3306.7056118294367\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3306.7056118294404\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3306.7056118294367\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28460>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10922.705701004783\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7355.437814921668\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8117.883402921523\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5879.073691002604\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3338.390751169649\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4419.248533885423\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5194.254821503088\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4476.944027086409\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3330.050362656469\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4522.788545307938\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3314.7613905588437\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3310.6745677086005\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3311.3128550389674\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3309.588468361185\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3309.606070858756\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3309.6012571117076\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3309.5684628455756\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3309.5684015565116\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3309.568400650418\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3309.568400650418\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AABF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10995.476582051591\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7364.7283776764\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8117.619150008966\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5936.152890501047\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3342.6522417896713\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4419.0066579017985\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5131.464860241562\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4485.566980582767\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3333.8404258951664\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4536.528567373656\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3319.056623257903\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3313.6147096423765\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3318.816378855835\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3315.1880743571173\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3313.3392907737116\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3313.3342627757356\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3313.3341276261554\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3313.33407261747\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3313.3340701091515\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3313.3340701091593\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3313.3340701091515\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9600>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11027.34033712557\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7374.72453533033\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8093.361830630079\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5957.580847869609\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3344.6364873405223\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4428.912486690288\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5235.8840439872365\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4486.687158580121\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3335.9098456184483\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4531.940328949186\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3320.80076615688\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3315.7527251006077\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3325.5778257895527\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3317.0237491352973\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3315.3428934978933\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3315.3327435720767\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3315.3318976239734\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3315.331779360905\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3315.331761553648\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3315.3317615536453\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3315.331761553648\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882BC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10999.892538085762\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7373.754301251409\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8179.942697119761\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5914.060109433184\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3346.1960316820623\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4427.333400821589\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5197.792889501103\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4486.386151146979\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3337.638640233493\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4533.802774933469\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3322.63997088233\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3317.3369365131034\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3317.187360436\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 3328.739392647096\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3317.10385902903\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3317.102325196224\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3317.100801531775\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3317.1007955166897\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3317.100766204615\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3317.100766204615\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11014.850321298487\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7376.696515460126\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8167.697334652913\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5915.135481442669\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3348.3267399858364\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4431.527944223442\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5220.388558237333\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4489.504801973559\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3339.9639783092684\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4536.285051469264\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3324.6756950580093\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3319.482601859898\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3321.5115781503664\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3322.26694611645\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3319.2329149349052\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3319.2282751892326\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3319.227683248812\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3319.227599448578\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3319.2275857835484\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3319.227585783558\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3319.2275857835484\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9F90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11002.394389168923\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7384.6741882911\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8189.631942132941\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5906.719361026534\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3349.996605865018\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4433.958547651503\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5220.117170576835\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4490.97226101605\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3341.7184622387185\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4537.686256873983\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3326.5030379567243\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3321.54519084147\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3322.912233899443\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3329.318206628598\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3321.061532471607\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3321.0353558088336\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3321.034305794293\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3321.0340916750347\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3321.0340765356923\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3321.0340758256925\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3321.0340758256925\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8EB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11017.17313416395\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7387.906627883571\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8157.800763158437\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5909.714972757425\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3351.8773600859236\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4434.284707963572\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5208.38858416533\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4490.6802431428105\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3343.5360154043397\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4539.706684092423\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3328.423157774124\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3323.0272757614857\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 3324.9337880382227\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3326.578134607956\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3322.754601993829\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3322.7463470603975\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3322.7456774875227\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3322.74554925002\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3322.7455366186723\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3322.745536618683\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3322.7455366186723\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9F60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10999.31065816729\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7398.07671903986\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8160.060986702704\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5927.705883026705\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3353.8486549227946\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4437.176756547602\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5199.796269910325\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4494.127517534494\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3345.69836574507\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4543.849508068646\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3330.344738338125\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3325.453368549246\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3326.486464374264\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3324.765275495656\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3324.718634429956\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3324.7203382583366\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3324.7162879218668\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3324.71614979485\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3324.7161492800133\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3324.7161492800133\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29EA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10968.343074602846\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7412.356206889683\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8167.379061736791\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5961.166865268584\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3355.9612976318676\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4441.04772214566\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5208.006097592228\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4498.047673010649\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3348.0042060258747\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4547.48560491376\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3332.312341209259\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3327.9716305173506\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3328.449336336793\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3326.760298754101\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3326.78051248533\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3326.780463639498\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3326.7384443613237\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3326.7383880365314\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3326.738387050308\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3326.738387050308\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29300>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10971.38079055257\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7421.368259115854\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8161.5048993397795\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5974.621534221618\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3357.506795620153\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4439.093330097532\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5159.990410563481\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4497.940455272739\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3349.443285805742\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4550.568783326487\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3334.0469536813657\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3330.624018397215\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3330.0144410668436\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3328.3871160085837\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4550.727065853457\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 3328.369691390948\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3328.3682731130475\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3328.3681388849654\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3328.3681275257895\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3328.3681268662567\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3328.3681268662567\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11006.663730972326\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7433.83318641044\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8081.150226619486\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6007.558571365786\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3360.018797417537\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4446.844403124147\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5222.684382394925\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4503.720675785899\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3352.3631520451186\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4552.000498524475\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3336.552005092979\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3334.504647444748\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3332.8168943316914\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3331.159195341146\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4572.0160856771745\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 3331.1415566989813\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3331.1400140861124\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3331.1399001884406\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3331.1398904641273\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3331.1398904641246\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3331.1398904641273\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29540>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 10955.579059476591\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7460.287120506725\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8154.986561378695\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6016.3119511407895\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3361.934442458144\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4452.505430566684\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5255.70683301024\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4507.177378593492\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3354.3515540324343\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4553.8390148519775\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3338.320714760129\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3337.2615962611044\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3334.739475411079\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3333.0719413543293\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3967.4205629225808\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 3333.054733955544\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3333.0529358843846\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3333.0528108379267\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3333.05280260393\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3333.0528026039274\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3333.05280260393\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BE20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11015.135912555823\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7483.805844014992\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8050.327810005646\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6055.395363314266\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3364.571793851893\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4457.107549970208\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5285.781222788111\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4512.717823115932\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3357.3208276379337\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4558.8131616097435\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3341.0354865677887\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3341.4559579586185\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3337.6082968028104\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3335.914152661604\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3385.154678120787\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 3335.897460493249\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3335.894927455124\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3335.8948352674083\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3335.8948250627423\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3335.8948247388053\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3335.8948247388053\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11009.828514973782\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7413.909997049861\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8132.152111501494\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5904.697038015343\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3371.6418315620185\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4422.149246608589\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4825.405457431281\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4524.768422603791\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3362.4282440494744\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4593.691154994336\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3346.5888230189294\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3352.1399101551783\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3343.7616457676095\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3342.2061228383964\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3342.7089833193468\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3342.194510284357\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3342.1925053433706\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3342.1924855466627\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3342.19246744353\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3342.192467443526\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3342.19246744353\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A41C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11011.79835852056\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7471.822244640317\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8105.500366269355\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5954.093787641351\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3373.796161338313\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4431.8148443232585\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4904.263319067726\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4521.153678771105\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3364.1763882444748\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4589.8906502617465\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3348.7411964834464\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3354.20602395544\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3345.9762016113036\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3344.4420409319155\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3344.9693156691883\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3344.4305167741622\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3344.4265000215228\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3344.426466212517\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3344.426429123108\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3344.4264291231057\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3344.426429123108\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A830>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11000.5530529854\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7450.125425671915\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8106.989744450145\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5928.203442239585\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3375.5192858987066\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4432.35809468106\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4899.841122641434\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4519.762170585433\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3365.6895475352094\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4587.977897327715\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3350.336208878297\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3355.78057042024\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3347.728956636108\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3346.243181413295\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3346.2922410580695\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3346.243105761708\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3346.2260840643994\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3346.225980841301\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3346.225979790931\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3346.225979790922\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3346.225979790931\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C286A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11006.896757895976\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7454.926966830307\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8065.410912405461\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5937.33291985514\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3377.7111073635724\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4437.159861725282\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4927.906797346917\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4520.027916552699\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3368.444434799694\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4587.674438180044\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3352.283648353823\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3357.965750670924\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3349.8698286784474\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3348.3907308862044\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3348.405614765102\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3348.397978354592\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3348.3731072397377\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3348.372990572198\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3348.3729896806726\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3348.3729896806726\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A3B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11006.697591023447\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7461.536050910211\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8050.50427697658\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5942.226582138768\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3379.488941695209\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4440.705225167414\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4937.399666742123\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4521.151354215109\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3370.1669147701905\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4586.0980862069255\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3354.099823713608\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3359.611110218396\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3351.7003807897563\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3350.259887219564\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3350.245697160017\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3350.2544276779663\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3350.238686855493\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3350.237969575105\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3350.2379371844854\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3350.2379297260254\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3350.237929726026\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3350.2379297260254\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2ABC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11011.403989557333\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7466.400565061258\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8045.2648934909685\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5941.501210916659\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3381.624179245933\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4443.844734379978\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4960.744683633891\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4520.411787544646\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3372.5489799410534\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4585.898404038071\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3355.9078638687033\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3361.6043061537175\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3353.6014492559248\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3352.1555930629347\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3352.1405834909456\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3352.1476255995185\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3352.134934718565\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3352.134218226668\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3352.134187093237\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3352.1341804870412\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3352.134180487041\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3352.1341804870412\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A320>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11032.971275201506\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7467.9910559504015\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8087.008155345078\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5962.174285544154\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3386.8429578656855\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4447.595453923088\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4949.707876864254\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4528.933202170394\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3376.9217637664487\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4600.193440417202\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3360.7664799505737\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3366.8109164148573\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3358.2277058796353\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3356.6923659339577\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3360.8196366102575\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3356.6777348681467\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3356.6759271178375\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3356.6758214411475\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3356.6757834368213\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3356.67578280367\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3356.67578280367\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880220>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11067.611317691935\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7493.970269200763\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8134.54301734504\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6001.061322990778\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3389.1549135052874\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4455.2579057576\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4993.818983772498\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4530.506902478258\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3379.376683533279\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4599.581333861238\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3363.202619445424\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3363.0619066465974\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3360.5912193343092\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3359.041718244782\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3381.8030900207623\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 3359.0265727331725\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3359.025290043694\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3359.0252165044767\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3359.025193365109\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3359.0251927924473\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3359.0251927924473\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883EE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11095.362484688387\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7495.745529439937\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8152.76500075008\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5972.182328411163\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3390.86817547551\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4455.323239738103\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4984.482297589538\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4530.159193917107\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3380.9810381414372\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4598.271915018214\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3364.9118882755583\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3370.652013118011\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3362.3600951059607\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3360.855499908269\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3361.2760723090532\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3360.844317145115\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3360.839013776699\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3360.838972596118\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3360.8389164041823\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3360.838916404177\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3360.8389164041823\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A500>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11069.275879688166\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7505.941764398374\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8078.688764346772\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5956.750567516238\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3393.0838946085096\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4458.365236523137\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5010.8570626699075\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4528.705805092991\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3383.421513763349\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4596.904003861522\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3366.7094685783422\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3372.6648922762406\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3364.254695720923\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3362.7422937144247\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3363.324122507528\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3362.7300870288427\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3362.725027954032\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3362.724978742157\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3362.7249152403947\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3362.7249152403865\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3362.7249152403947\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B400>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11069.577302473572\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7511.243696594847\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8065.424105690317\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5939.868692283117\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3394.8025008399563\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4459.124903301859\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5001.511644821749\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4529.696715191943\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3385.005181144017\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4596.887245786025\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3368.475026206688\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3374.1656566470265\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3366.006041206255\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3364.5229728563518\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3364.5959355502355\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3364.5235796185443\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3364.5057900973425\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3364.505656694234\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3364.5056552445694\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3364.505655244558\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3364.5056552445694\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28DF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11089.652431602233\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7520.001132145369\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8040.498969040689\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5945.98533824507\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3397.0857621196\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4462.19383496334\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5013.970506797077\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4531.500284131378\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3387.3245983649745\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4598.879174907848\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3370.3885911900315\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3376.201743025746\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3367.9094256522503\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3366.414741450556\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3366.532909320073\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3366.411738932172\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3366.397292574061\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3366.397150212628\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3366.3971486369255\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3366.3971486369137\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3366.3971486369255\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8880>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11080.744547843397\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7537.460939789125\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8029.985104841757\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5942.468666439387\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3398.907819002712\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4463.218955711598\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5001.460103988075\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4533.56671049476\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3388.9423136342953\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4600.598318487864\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3372.15003880553\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3377.747558504676\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3369.6533244646525\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3368.173387491842\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3368.1950068140063\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3368.1840171621984\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3368.1552629201365\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3368.1551210607795\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3368.1551199705536\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3368.1551199705445\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3368.1551199705536\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A85B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11098.631275169775\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7536.393353990359\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8038.747675481499\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5931.508995283728\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3401.151054000008\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4465.33855907663\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5000.0903997307\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4536.4875413503705\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3391.074409569169\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4604.003783654783\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3374.0777126670673\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3379.7354270443766\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3371.5025809733506\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3370.0103381239933\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3370.056684086205\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3370.0159010336\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3369.9923250131114\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3369.9921807493392\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3369.9921796833523\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3369.9921796833432\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3369.9921796833523\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883C70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11119.95691259975\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7540.310657839802\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8040.587605561876\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5935.693420205984\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3403.157257010837\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4467.917532126898\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4992.891878584591\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4539.749703187756\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3392.8646897386225\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4607.320617501838\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3375.905300990397\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3381.428712546272\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3373.3077968096522\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3371.817164693477\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3371.8317008875797\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3371.8292457404195\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3371.7985072149245\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3371.7983660186364\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3371.79836505822\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3371.79836505822\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11128.102068225959\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7552.467109198063\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8070.559750939574\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5912.296368987172\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3405.417586675415\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4470.160656073336\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4988.224904934981\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4543.434753421386\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3394.9535097584007\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4611.023857316602\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3377.8229640222094\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3383.4067208762663\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3375.1545560014247\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3373.651845259459\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3373.674759498725\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3373.6622143635727\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3373.6332187918833\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3373.6330795646704\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3373.6330785722153\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3373.6330785722153\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABB80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11156.021737982117\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7553.7794060649485\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8051.022309464954\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5915.806577416517\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3407.469649849419\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4471.75640894666\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4975.2454064453\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4546.21112816803\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3396.4603335584507\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4614.371969432161\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3379.524762237194\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3384.9716569967013\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3376.83385120903\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3375.327993273596\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3375.33828857606\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3375.3400251608036\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3375.3088838052327\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3375.30874862074\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3375.308747718548\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3375.308747718548\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8430>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11151.612079076358\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7552.1150013439\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8062.472089624488\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5925.450260600994\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3410.133143568282\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4473.30706265864\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4964.982893061504\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4549.450623241753\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3398.2904299770235\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4616.7837198882535\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3381.25615072012\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3386.7563894701925\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3378.4362563217073\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3376.914214767996\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3376.9333038698974\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3376.924190983639\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3376.8953109877093\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3376.8951909278285\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3376.8951897244224\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3376.8951897244137\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3376.8951897244224\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABB80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11176.42127019737\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7556.734886140872\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8038.424339289999\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5946.931128431037\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3412.2687397751815\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4476.816135262549\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4963.987417850414\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4553.796024027915\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3400.342694113654\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4621.1390115433605\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3383.1088337078218\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3388.6237012325178\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3380.30859348622\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3378.7802850677917\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3378.7867034662236\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3378.7916346272473\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3378.7606942174784\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3378.7605742829264\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3378.760573123306\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3378.760573123297\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3378.760573123306\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BD30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11137.014811437899\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7564.487117248233\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8056.531608494907\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5994.537881567006\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3414.206020307503\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4480.265107774549\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4966.028485271895\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4557.924205229054\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3402.5527055736866\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4625.6092525897075\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3385.013168873199\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3390.6610055174906\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3382.252490115289\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3380.7168684516655\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3380.716417079542\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3380.7274787847246\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3380.6968316963057\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3380.696706999815\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3380.6967060060897\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3380.6967060060897\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11136.734041779777\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7567.086542126057\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8056.465220274105\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5979.69210795031\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3416.470779983015\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4483.766544057518\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4964.9931079815415\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4561.879477593433\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3404.383704874226\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4629.108670827001\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3386.668663398087\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3392.3718096427156\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3383.985271026946\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3382.4462747517964\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3382.436584561947\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3382.448752749012\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3382.4258217554507\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3382.424903857752\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3382.424861152115\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3382.4248489676547\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3382.424848967655\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3382.4248489676547\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BB20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11160.0013785935\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7573.095298093948\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8093.753066587142\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5958.017974154924\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3417.9900213282585\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4485.912868103036\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4965.472705326374\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4564.632624195088\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3406.5327627956185\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4633.492932012074\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3388.7881561108843\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3394.525324538599\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3386.133431862278\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3384.592339791934\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3384.581124457262\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3384.592814532318\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3384.571712696634\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3384.570877066206\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3384.5708351036824\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3384.5708252688173\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3384.570825268818\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3384.5708252688173\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AEF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11177.690022867866\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7611.264877044792\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8031.161739014959\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5993.3321997115745\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3420.0082599053603\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4489.97470230267\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4975.149089801831\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4566.802632733635\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3408.165271151388\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4634.735432226806\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3390.3702085888726\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3396.1216566834537\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3387.787907902721\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3386.25342652977\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3386.2392429118845\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3386.2486616013935\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3386.231943887794\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3386.231213173915\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3386.231176921523\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3386.231168975431\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3386.2311689754324\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3386.231168975431\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C292D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11223.515801561885\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7609.817996567852\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7997.017359383143\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5946.258160090425\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3422.7621521753686\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4493.303828805152\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4977.845196553511\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4570.267296194562\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3410.1163008890744\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4634.927149878851\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3391.8118473400355\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3397.789862576202\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3389.316467462323\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3387.7883215870916\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3387.767537157535\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3387.76831708759\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3387.7642789477145\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3387.763265635709\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3387.7632339558572\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3387.7632339558536\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3387.7632339558572\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29D50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11247.816968427294\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7599.800522636026\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7998.241714589507\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5934.8474690391395\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3425.16286589221\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4495.899268887115\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4981.99337775607\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4571.810646864145\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3411.572159822495\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4634.41261803921\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3393.1235781142973\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3399.1891538185555\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3390.768274147992\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3389.2525895917606\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3389.2301971784236\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3389.2290138746057\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3389.227683901312\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3389.22658229616\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3389.2264457295596\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3389.226426238318\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 3389.2264262383287\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3389.226426238318\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A60E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11257.632850902726\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7595.495799829792\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 7963.704257133088\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5909.185783550949\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3426.9654604289335\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4498.308552302168\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4979.945035532639\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4575.1567063960265\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3413.5916857960465\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4638.548337119314\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3394.9219908531413\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3401.132185037107\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3392.642160877652\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3391.1265320465864\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3391.102278845051\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3391.099588901586\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3391.099904640556\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3391.0990543724974\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3391.0989666492906\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3391.0989666492746\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3391.0989666492906\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AAD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11194.387808793503\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7579.053355709215\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8006.2995440875875\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5939.975151510828\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3428.114799722671\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4497.328887481071\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4956.311053984267\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4579.85583509674\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3416.2848918892696\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4651.1558291513165\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3398.5179156260265\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3404.358746302892\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3395.794811520312\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3394.2265285383246\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3394.211179939222\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3394.2188181313436\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3394.204728977361\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3394.2040314781593\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3394.203999954255\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3394.2039933307938\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3394.2039933307938\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3394.2039933307938\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AA10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11195.9864313937\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7584.9605565563\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8053.196625662514\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5991.120172194964\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3431.0401165910334\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4491.5741995803055\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4795.055933986661\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4612.431934892073\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3425.445677989749\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4645.02657761059\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3403.860995910816\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3409.040628151963\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3400.211297586822\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3398.7238830065603\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3398.745723708894\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3398.721071503577\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3398.714366975644\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3398.714350086187\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3398.714350086187\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 205\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29C00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11212.982759291855\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7595.0501335266445\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8084.098490558128\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6012.705711734602\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3433.34613226348\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4494.720106781448\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4794.691347693315\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4620.639339960835\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3428.2364542328296\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4647.371682194218\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3406.559950313116\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3409.4506140704943\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3402.7805341177454\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3401.2954089878995\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3401.289048528492\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3401.299698337486\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3401.2854681839062\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3401.2854129625966\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3401.285403420717\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3401.285402528405\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3401.285402528405\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A560>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11246.088624769809\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7601.140675132111\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8061.159392886883\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6006.21015734474\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3435.5997162930043\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4498.177582910193\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4807.25634176382\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4614.328753749261\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3429.7484675957467\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4651.659303692166\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3408.1101745796527\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3413.2649520099994\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3404.511282332556\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3403.0291222190053\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3403.0483021418813\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3403.025345756928\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3403.02049778765\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3403.0204931217845\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3403.020493121786\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3403.0204931217845\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11310.773720022211\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7609.16167780539\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8006.19626024131\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5973.790755125648\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3438.0065401197694\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4501.856566345846\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4822.055134121273\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4611.229841458626\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3431.320424990523\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4657.91592327993\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3409.73564845902\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3415.0428293331515\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3406.356205409991\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3404.863987766842\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3404.898850050549\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3404.85820287953\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3404.8549493200353\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3404.8549411055164\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3404.8549409346647\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3404.8549409346647\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A4A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11312.711565526202\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7612.794661149399\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8016.834130993002\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5982.657289354011\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3440.195812453785\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4506.267450456979\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4835.353815974838\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4611.608668090486\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3433.133741452609\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4663.158362216145\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3411.5069574527843\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3416.8932623179394\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3408.2619916286612\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3406.769293060767\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3406.7844299803974\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3406.7661395068094\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3406.75914883348\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3406.759117503476\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3406.7591166512407\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3406.7591166512407\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AD10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11305.651171490535\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7622.999746046927\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8021.4995813485975\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5966.267885334826\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3442.5908824834496\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4508.998890064124\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4859.812616650837\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4607.166465466798\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3434.3612420576796\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4668.720463046015\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3412.85620732708\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3418.4024109136762\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3409.905884665189\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3408.382684986461\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3408.377876618138\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3408.381226261597\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3408.369019138272\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3408.3683049333085\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3408.3682821646294\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3408.3682701946273\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3408.368270194629\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3408.3682701946273\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28DF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11323.721011194288\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7627.8353653465365\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8017.820595918935\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5972.662438588718\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3445.247355552824\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4512.717390481089\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4886.749730753013\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4607.017805167447\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3434.2421312915335\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4671.765007643589\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3414.4098555721375\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3419.967002679822\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3411.509164955687\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3409.9833104467925\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3409.9708745751764\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3409.97423030139\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3409.9657711487835\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3409.965218479288\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3409.9651961137224\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3409.9651880722777\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3409.965188072279\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3409.9651880722777\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29060>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11347.735880725428\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7632.921681867618\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8023.226050082192\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5971.631406400453\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3448.0128275188526\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4515.639174284411\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4930.218442808615\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4606.227911614456\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3433.9903151417684\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4674.781671913087\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3415.9684288441717\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3421.4806262428297\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3413.066491451422\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3411.5230999251044\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3411.511621221787\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3411.5170361104283\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3411.503697735107\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3411.5029727312294\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3411.502940203358\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3411.5029290447333\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3411.5029290447346\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3411.5029290447333\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB1C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11354.580423120045\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7641.363245256489\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8008.037949306994\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6010.272214742603\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3449.8194082241052\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4519.222608629574\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4928.246087347339\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4610.306182520788\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3436.676209562741\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4678.889977568228\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3418.006675971977\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3423.648645193345\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3415.1887493255877\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3413.638460877439\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3413.624103604062\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3413.628266116904\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3413.6182072171587\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3413.6175540107342\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3413.6175245567683\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3413.6175159680615\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3413.617515968062\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3413.6175159680615\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CEBF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11329.712310493112\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7650.372703534549\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8033.7550628561185\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5998.603793322776\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3452.5125350085355\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4522.727033619685\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4967.998996289543\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4610.925944535069\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3437.553607641664\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4678.873965548838\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3419.4556498323054\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3425.1614019356357\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3416.703830510996\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3415.1584601920686\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3415.1441275417073\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3415.149431422098\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3415.13678679255\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3415.13605110151\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3415.136017363995\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3415.1360062996455\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3415.1360062996464\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3415.1360062996455\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CFF70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11275.197593870122\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7664.3203390507315\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8053.905561398036\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6046.6749023399625\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3455.3071423346196\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4527.051972838213\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4974.012456085249\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4616.146754725765\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3439.911862927296\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4681.508655340696\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3421.1653875700663\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3427.0192426598333\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3418.4985240963106\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3416.9631956608728\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3416.9426131551218\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3416.943286033783\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3416.938541412077\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3416.9376280805477\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3416.9376063115424\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3416.93759544768\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3416.937595447682\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3416.93759544768\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC190>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11303.756777353274\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7664.876250803316\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8049.222848702374\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6038.172601694424\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3456.279311735699\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4528.744320097545\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4969.373132309633\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4618.366700788016\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3441.9234068403603\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4687.492576803325\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3423.4248326380425\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3429.27388757316\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3420.7653335243094\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3419.208707220073\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3419.1883434710912\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3419.189425639551\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3419.184310180929\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3419.1834361377155\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3419.1834108793782\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3419.183402062267\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3419.183402062268\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3419.183402062267\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883EE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11355.454873404415\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7685.149267575793\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8011.0875951790895\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6066.9043025292585\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3457.988555992747\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4532.281393900932\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4974.712317823181\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4621.547193632647\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3444.157412676989\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4692.01691214444\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3425.500194211057\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3431.403696460641\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3422.865537288165\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3421.2957706012967\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3421.2747274587805\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3421.2752967379174\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3421.2710439694306\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3421.270086833987\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3421.2700490509524\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3421.2700490509483\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3421.2700490509524\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5600>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11360.304277206898\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7689.417809555574\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8098.182655268718\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6079.876359066229\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3459.1999703952824\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4535.450448829846\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4955.6135135547065\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4625.332814716699\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3447.274659557823\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4695.653694089963\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3427.5323869248778\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3433.6012161543194\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3425.000328808062\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3423.4309855384877\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3423.4095724274785\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3423.407879126587\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3423.4072507311203\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3423.4061889321647\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3423.406040732854\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3423.4060201451794\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 3423.4060201451853\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3423.4060201451794\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11434.17949737735\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7684.399002027333\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8095.575194929687\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6117.643500911203\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3464.47810084067\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4533.784132615425\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4842.149651335608\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4648.792129299083\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3454.919392211399\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4689.638857341675\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3433.888449148772\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3438.826889533609\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3430.1083297629484\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3428.617781640616\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3428.6162212091804\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3428.619528917356\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3428.609760834623\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3428.6097539756347\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3428.6097539756333\n",
      "            Iterations: 18\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 204\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 18\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11403.493933318277\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7721.459418130412\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8200.793233499686\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6050.939399681669\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3465.8908163813376\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4538.83599462231\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4867.17944195003\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4643.382575973237\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3456.4622076750225\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4696.809973860217\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3435.8758090267247\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3440.845507660887\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3432.2913228374846\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3430.7450192081924\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3430.772764550652\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3430.740152029534\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3430.7358674266293\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3430.7358487981837\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3430.735848231907\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3430.735848231907\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB580>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11505.923762612074\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7730.805009621855\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8223.234709622664\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6042.054869486319\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3468.5726387725435\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4543.736981786682\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4883.803242170627\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4644.429094240284\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3458.4060056172157\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4701.917638656494\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3437.724226983245\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3442.7251715342163\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3434.2901025346255\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3432.7489070607753\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3432.7536142565723\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3432.7484236713626\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3432.7365161279067\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3432.7364613476057\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3432.736459492833\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3432.73645890905\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3432.73645890905\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9630>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11524.317166970235\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7733.788417350619\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8217.80061373876\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6052.176340127489\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3471.438276550814\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4547.625109439261\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4943.784269359479\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4640.02953712815\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3457.679816725068\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4709.009303631994\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3439.5181190380217\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3444.4657619919185\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3436.1361346891963\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3434.540010829857\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3434.5551077175633\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3434.5422336489564\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3434.5227717626503\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3434.5226715407316\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3434.5226691779176\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3434.5226691779008\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3434.5226691779176\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28AF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11546.807028202082\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7732.789603649071\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8188.432723694521\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6077.953412947107\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3474.5324046809314\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4552.960661433578\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4999.840266249116\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4642.527251784815\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3457.878458446351\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4712.841664690826\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3441.3845178744077\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3446.095754841692\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3437.8914036805554\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3436.304707618658\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3436.3177615580953\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3436.3111370130327\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3436.2822867979567\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3436.2821613149927\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3436.282157869504\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3436.2821578694834\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3436.282157869504\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BCD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11498.900788266099\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7762.601566486924\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8181.395153696686\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6066.847256845655\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3476.7259430118793\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4556.816356328092\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5010.045157402616\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4646.285855821729\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3460.4622426338974\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4716.08010053412\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3443.2857305099633\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3448.2269946367874\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3439.976541008676\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3438.381587291124\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3438.380698745965\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3438.3877066607893\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3438.3574794100905\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3438.3573443721466\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3438.357341178599\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3438.3573411785806\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3438.357341178599\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29660>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11520.084436298626\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7748.145756124877\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8188.587834399238\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6057.963927072758\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3479.8606068893782\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4560.844826312625\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5028.870318028266\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4649.095497225515\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3462.5554839662045\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4711.687573311345\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3444.7052800792867\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3449.697097104792\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3441.522832991577\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3439.9725565040135\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3439.9522526439755\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3439.9583659334075\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3439.9432867419846\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3439.9423591973737\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3439.9423264376337\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3439.94230680275\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3439.9423068027536\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3439.94230680275\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A380>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11458.89247379981\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7743.601140744799\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8287.305848099852\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6094.048561370017\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3481.391924141968\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4560.862222539409\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 4939.203670758174\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4656.378273956175\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3466.480961940656\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4718.838322263264\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3449.3696237536606\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3453.771021372403\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3445.813748354602\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3444.2857519709405\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3444.274991765466\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3444.2823419122014\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3444.264087338893\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3444.2631191029827\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3444.26308967702\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3444.263072019802\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3444.263072019806\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3444.263072019802\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B130>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11507.065718802685\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7760.121652704738\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8256.606798304692\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6047.371572435986\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3483.3826897876365\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4566.980396140837\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5023.347554357719\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4653.057464695412\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3466.859444826181\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4718.815235404772\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3451.174658722617\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3455.441028563154\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3447.659940258922\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3446.1195142997376\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3446.1043876613185\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3446.117908153651\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3446.0903224018093\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3446.0892832652353\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3446.089236356577\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3446.089213127137\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3446.08921312714\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3446.089213127137\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28D30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11590.859094410413\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7763.609910270938\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8277.154517153234\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6097.374547306392\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3485.392917772343\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4569.172241366945\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5020.67052796773\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4655.977904379287\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3469.509766142768\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4724.4840927778405\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3453.683397810027\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3458.020998220507\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3450.3034076814183\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3448.7458411391954\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3448.726957937127\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3448.7415608941806\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3448.7147213607004\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3448.713840509158\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3448.713784246796\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3448.7137661841753\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3448.7137661841775\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3448.7137661841753\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B580>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11592.222812575366\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7772.930305560383\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8308.473036667507\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6061.080496319304\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3488.0681507672844\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4574.219767193344\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5056.7845808611255\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4657.128070211913\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3472.4853102574125\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4720.632982268648\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3455.155806041599\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3459.826298654886\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3452.113583638684\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3450.5590673971174\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3450.5247209175004\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3450.5234422547383\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3450.520741470048\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3450.518823920969\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3450.5187775335507\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3450.518777162024\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3450.518777162024\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A1D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11546.55469398767\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7783.292673853564\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8360.857849980415\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6065.371047351935\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3491.0147052200464\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4579.506284666008\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5072.76189383938\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4661.907523392247\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3474.824887306758\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4720.499241855383\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3456.872765015003\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3461.645044861712\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3453.9010190049867\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3452.377455371101\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3452.3341782408943\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3452.3294318016174\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3452.3306523831598\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3452.327610261053\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3452.3275424016447\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3452.327535256746\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3452.3275346820415\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3452.3275346820415\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29480>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11527.720570623042\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7786.227518952053\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8380.280511905314\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6103.001052342039\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3493.150070514942\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4583.342715520521\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5081.121920466637\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4665.851621226466\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3477.447009962355\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4724.292598691406\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3458.859703777016\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3463.807412349436\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3456.0249138919116\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3454.4973250528246\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3454.449409440906\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3454.4433923445504\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3454.4438299120993\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3454.442923479795\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3454.4428204861997\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3454.4428187690155\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3454.4428187690155\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3454.4428187690155\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882260>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11533.865013804792\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7791.7437902772945\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8359.20355060924\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6127.622604778236\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3496.8506643365768\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4588.494720888806\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5104.078696751014\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4670.695577878823\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3480.0984356577346\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4721.027792362296\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3460.3381701113613\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3465.425446787546\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3457.586240907672\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3456.120601253522\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3456.060416137281\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3456.05112281586\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3456.050813020235\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3456.0505673579883\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3456.0505513733096\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3456.0504648812193\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3456.050463136311\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3456.050463136309\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3456.050463136311\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A60E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11541.260445150583\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7801.585165304406\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8277.86066485527\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6138.082365153922\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3500.3607972355358\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4593.279242450831\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5120.39109164776\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4676.031719609078\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3482.118176289768\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4721.709466231428\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3462.273757640516\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3467.3023807628992\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3459.3926980866117\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3457.9407928184332\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3457.888719123739\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3457.8792520573893\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3457.8788069290167\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3457.878598049727\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3457.878602133451\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3457.878583154883\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3457.8785806689307\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3457.8785806689357\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29FF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11540.321356992703\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7811.050698812717\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8269.626602528419\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6156.241430965999\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3504.7633346084376\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4598.0011941562725\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5142.446364264736\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4680.96620706221\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3483.6114980093175\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4717.806851920395\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3463.95481843766\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3468.82498764671\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3460.856517698577\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3459.4790469511768\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3459.435794272364\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3459.4268982800804\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3459.426734945809\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3459.4231114446666\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3459.4230273279836\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3459.423015842509\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3459.4230131844133\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3459.423013184412\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3459.4230131844133\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11568.46853067321\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7827.346222563685\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8269.224068851272\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6164.3389807080985\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3508.0864035112527\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4602.557647986941\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5153.56055704041\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4686.366536736416\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3485.518811154401\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4720.079456759717\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3465.9092369478867\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3470.692519465785\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3462.6552707811347\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3461.299232951992\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3461.260269978715\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3461.2523405969673\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3461.247628760714\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3461.2451475617\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3461.2450168478445\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3461.2449841302514\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3461.244979506969\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 3461.244979506965\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3461.244979506969\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C299C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11536.768255564388\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7844.414029117806\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8258.852337609904\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6142.73250388931\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3508.018340189302\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4604.150934400872\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5143.170566942943\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4687.819402967709\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3487.8467012596348\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4726.335990557654\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3468.036074842639\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3473.006918345597\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3464.9679455847154\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3463.5722505869594\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3463.528863459801\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3463.5199322566505\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3463.5208262476435\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3463.517592558568\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3463.517518782152\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3463.5175088871683\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3463.5175070184655\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3463.517507018465\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3463.5175070184655\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8880>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11536.482805467913\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7863.740910649405\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8237.585257692273\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6165.525759489277\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3508.453911853221\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4605.427871402791\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5128.845772394696\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4690.3215526589665\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3490.2632171366404\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4734.118101876089\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3470.221573509808\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3475.3782922661303\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3467.3237717845805\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3465.9051901773482\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3465.854165483626\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3465.8453316440855\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3465.8460537071546\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3465.8436377845164\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3465.843546282781\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3465.843538356547\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3465.8435368527516\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3465.8435368527507\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3465.8435368527516\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE980>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11454.975983401704\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7870.976805120728\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8250.25305386692\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6132.191600631632\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3512.40885942528\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4611.251479597059\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5148.706296089788\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4696.615072944294\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3492.1797944450013\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4733.545993923866\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3472.1138148816035\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3477.180136633546\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3469.044163509415\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3467.6758122077013\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3467.6316512108206\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3467.62311524424\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3467.6227284258675\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3467.6195945929503\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3467.6195025192974\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3467.61949318997\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3467.619490240917\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3467.619490240916\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3467.619490240917\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CFB80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11471.791604801972\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7870.563816132904\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8182.8565556154135\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6132.448565781608\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3517.108254310853\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4616.90380816423\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5170.186598448248\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4702.974175212181\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3493.958546867102\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4732.195264025354\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3474.0181418362818\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3478.8753139129963\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3470.6650401384622\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3469.357339151574\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3469.3224738833114\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3469.3146670351493\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3469.3089174863653\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3469.3067195720987\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3469.3065414011567\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3469.306520851877\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3469.3065144408542\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 3469.306514440851\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3469.3065144408542\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE9E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11507.328610244364\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7897.748318471968\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8262.026433084462\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6166.3812405895\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3515.189440773706\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4615.546343901446\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5141.902034669519\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4701.779772718777\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3496.6923595113203\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4743.392970940791\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3476.5240176116686\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3481.6677661387234\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3473.520650591754\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3472.1119906489293\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3472.0629375035696\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3472.0543202652634\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3472.054744273706\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3472.051956186229\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3472.051864580565\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3472.0518548853724\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3472.0518528941443\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3472.051852894143\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3472.0518528941443\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A63B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11503.469952876743\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7886.125432540193\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8296.646337251263\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6145.4602752215205\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3513.8261981859787\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4610.177169044318\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5062.034499260031\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4703.13723246388\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3498.87555880901\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4769.241503115609\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3480.3631420786846\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3485.2888530443943\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3477.3641138589282\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3475.805284642722\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3475.756070734097\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3475.750405920407\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3475.7500567238935\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3475.7499098632593\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3475.7499428571455\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3475.7498515584566\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3475.749851558471\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3475.7498515584566\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A200>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11538.95589966114\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7893.588148629744\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8305.77343323586\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6168.094764104855\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3515.8148872332436\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4614.407557428651\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5077.556376209167\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4705.064234142486\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3501.2335711147152\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4770.084448430609\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3482.3718344308\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3487.380837059679\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3479.47467149194\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3477.9221662905265\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3477.8687348473823\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3477.8626624338267\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3477.8625003903135\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3477.862143769192\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3477.8619578978864\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3477.8619560672832\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3477.861956067284\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3477.8619560672832\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A680>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11550.196222241244\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7904.660036746727\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8288.297860154358\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6170.720857797178\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3519.613750716643\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4619.500024135426\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5104.971776555736\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4709.095805223213\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3504.068128549292\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4765.984011680106\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3483.8347536574856\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3489.028170444483\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3481.044770635068\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3479.560912746208\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3479.4971271753275\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3479.488828759789\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3479.4890563580125\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3479.487789765365\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3479.4876405109076\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3479.4876352600777\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3479.4876352600777\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3479.4876352600777\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAFE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11555.548892052608\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7910.4992515218655\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8265.919323083317\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6155.114770709474\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3523.77128811458\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4624.655852963676\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5136.655124649587\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4713.345748462636\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3505.60374849682\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4759.355924627585\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3485.6245145191415\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3490.680397856595\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3482.611519114933\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3481.1891188930267\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3481.1390890826306\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3481.1307956518735\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3481.131370894187\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3481.129421068532\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3481.129314651006\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3481.1293077577675\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3481.129306146039\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3481.1293061460387\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3481.129306146039\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABC70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11553.442456525885\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7919.328856197329\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8259.723238662422\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6149.10761304471\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3528.1335200403746\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4630.008880078163\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5166.17409999436\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4718.1541270269045\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3507.1065695480256\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4753.763034257296\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3487.3274712120347\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3492.2076270614593\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3484.06818861394\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3482.724587388652\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3482.6863106050605\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3482.6786518680838\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3482.678343710429\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3482.6753152585516\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3482.6752174339263\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3482.67520957096\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3482.675206027119\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3482.6752060271183\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3482.675206027119\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAF50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11551.631081531736\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7923.380312447764\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8251.401282012082\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6163.422114388548\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3530.3020764528624\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4633.3134042340125\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5171.578875647412\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4721.833759806013\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3509.0629703277223\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4756.184096561685\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3489.2679889366036\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3494.1753687786477\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3486.0011386141086\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3484.663872670577\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3484.626552883705\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3484.619244745564\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3484.6182066716055\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3484.6154075469667\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3484.615296459699\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3484.615290146728\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3484.615286015297\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3484.6152860152965\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3484.615286015297\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C296F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11566.506217399114\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7919.278951457664\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8254.553805536472\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6158.930271067293\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3529.388675084803\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4632.541573855669\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5143.873034155908\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4721.867300050156\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3511.622227295623\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4767.257212600798\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3491.515283557259\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3496.715739913474\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3488.586073229163\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3487.170905717756\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3487.121049526242\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3487.113167332606\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3487.113477659761\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3487.111496661902\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3487.1113882227683\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3487.1113807023\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3487.1113791032617\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3487.111379103262\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3487.1113791032617\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B370>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11590.733837790518\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7929.774145841728\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8293.671118089049\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6165.376408502195\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3531.6533736236606\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4637.446556237093\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5163.645750391795\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4725.044109099797\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3513.4462083832\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4766.809831010387\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3493.455510861191\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3498.645878100155\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3490.4892982106803\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3489.082888656602\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3489.0364494438163\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3489.0286985088505\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3489.0289608872718\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3489.0268635949687\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3489.0267669074933\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3489.026758645925\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3489.0267568847403\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3489.026756884739\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3489.0267568847403\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11593.741124982085\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7925.517182018511\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8409.727559228964\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6169.029617134562\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3532.017185960629\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4639.079760571881\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5153.121406394343\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4726.606005830423\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3515.9161410397082\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4775.696685309608\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3495.7768961354896\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3501.137038123786\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3492.9959906969607\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3491.5324313148312\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3491.4801563150418\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3491.4733086279875\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3491.472743769563\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3491.470937940918\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3491.4708007697573\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3491.470792606222\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3491.4707910640946\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3491.470791064094\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3491.4707910640946\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387EB60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11587.47681488734\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7938.379887879394\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8363.294322782061\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6158.016896455269\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3534.6274491818504\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4643.679223009933\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5165.174284602364\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3833.023640024758\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3518.1771540112386\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4776.247959227134\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3498.0802925609796\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3503.1038002637015\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3494.9111940526527\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3493.4952665952787\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3493.453825261372\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3493.4468779412546\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3493.4465412154445\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3493.4463984695153\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3493.4464165917643\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3493.446358259296\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3493.446356785768\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3493.4463567857674\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3493.446356785768\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CA60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11567.20675726926\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7944.857397366173\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8370.04440224917\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6145.755065305875\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3539.1235397962637\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4649.539653301292\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5194.414218244468\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3640.2308333550677\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3519.9676343422766\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4768.82325399135\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3500.2189849895617\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3504.6126202647674\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3496.326403322333\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3495.0423330198832\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3495.0166226992314\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3495.011153018504\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3495.012172237336\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3495.0102418704787\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3495.0101319910787\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3495.0101313385194\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3495.010128945278\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3495.0101289452787\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C430>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11595.866909497518\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7949.56938326142\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8343.118554178385\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6202.984150953856\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3539.2031872322673\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4646.519067686212\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5125.911810602324\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4738.9570054682845\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3524.0076912267086\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4796.901422929735\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3503.687206919596\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3508.774843260824\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3500.8623475709046\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3499.364704630945\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3499.2917768818697\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3499.2827281223363\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3499.2829827837695\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3499.281232573099\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3499.2810728808636\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3499.281066822533\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3499.281065579271\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3499.281065579271\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3499.281065579271\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F2B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11597.065544962825\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7959.481731505259\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8478.386455096479\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6228.375431960648\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3538.8325519389914\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4645.657800584428\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5036.987449861532\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3533.304132762349\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3528.4493158418663\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4788.542034584389\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3507.530447192946\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3511.5709431105797\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3503.3616031789797\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3502.1093504138585\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3502.0962324237944\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3502.0943142669603\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3502.0567100985922\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3502.056315995593\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3502.056315581845\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3502.0563132013276\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3502.056313201329\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C296C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11620.572873691879\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7964.102825899208\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8357.443595025752\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6195.033737066158\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3542.10483713616\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4650.248654265366\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5046.181033107923\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3516.57719967846\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3532.687089112589\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4712.375133870697\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3507.969094730946\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3516.524766853182\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3504.4445540561132\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3517.3303778545055\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3504.454085269137\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3504.382027702943\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3504.37904753791\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3504.37894485756\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3504.3788768127306\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3504.3788759936824\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3504.3788759936824\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B9A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11593.217543223318\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7980.114505533544\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8289.454001846367\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6198.2607375645475\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3546.0848004540276\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4655.217352404499\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5121.095880648181\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3609.8243496483674\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3532.016608293803\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4811.23059275476\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3511.499456269756\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3515.6934525758825\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3507.664954287875\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3506.255368055966\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3506.2153540636236\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3506.2303645398765\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3506.194932720261\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3506.1928480038246\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3506.192808209158\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3506.1927959820086\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3506.192795156423\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3506.192795156423\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5600>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11608.216996173278\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7992.80901896596\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8280.81112139918\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6158.613895880089\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3547.9173397140103\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4658.080693908329\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5119.046521310453\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3554.9465879568934\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3534.5499130847766\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4814.587307925028\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3514.6028541742767\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3518.1454646365933\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3509.996119265183\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3508.6510901422484\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3508.633317619933\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3508.6510545750625\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3508.587662633391\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3508.587179884826\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3508.5871795404623\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3508.587176250683\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3508.5871762506845\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883B50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11594.345041571763\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 7997.9677423558205\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8260.696034132923\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6157.222213682815\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3551.402909769231\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4662.808158283369\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5149.051546992554\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3556.1106132385853\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3536.4636347359246\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4808.462635418284\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3516.430104072773\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3519.9332976149126\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3511.675117380942\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3510.371548327699\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3510.3576282891736\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3510.369815695863\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3510.317712557004\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3510.317158130106\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3510.3171581075703\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3510.3171566386286\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3510.3171566386295\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882E90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11616.170872323568\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8035.322834672379\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8216.421519049114\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6160.708189091974\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3556.8856465517456\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4668.141313006028\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5174.231020413585\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3535.1439182037657\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3538.720783107564\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4764.032752972849\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3516.8495270480603\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3521.7167275999327\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3512.1620619628766\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3511.971130982699\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 3511.9473144158674\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 3511.9031332965633\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 3511.8999382583897\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 3511.897267037385\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 3511.8971533745107\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 3511.897119417199\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 3511.897118302915\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    240,   Neg. LLF: 3511.89711830291\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3511.897118302915\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 240\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B790>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11584.923372876441\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8017.7544511537035\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8184.130897546969\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6169.626849736613\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3561.8606487694387\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4673.762267555506\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5203.402024468807\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3583.6025585070765\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3539.31824758157\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4800.9989332067125\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3520.2722460992736\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3523.155351043378\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3514.8115205254467\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3513.5825107731253\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3513.5643122488846\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3513.587925970118\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3513.5492313626773\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3513.546548410557\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3513.5463773767992\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3513.5463504092577\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3513.546349609852\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3513.546349609852\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29CC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11625.406917711764\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8033.397202290978\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8167.619786729598\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6176.7813066908675\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3563.186735996254\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4677.1484188381855\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5205.184868323846\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 3542.553713403448\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3542.3115134321697\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4774.6857622295465\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3521.282540116512\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3525.4203184701687\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3516.95652985916\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3515.734654419505\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3515.694595283467\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3515.6896463674416\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3515.682200107379\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3515.679723078592\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3515.679046764809\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3515.6790329281603\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3515.679031462608\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3515.6790308601976\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3515.6790308601976\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29C30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11629.707223021382\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8005.59055721304\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8195.907091648669\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6150.845019286962\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3576.2362006895555\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4677.77604084062\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5135.6059685336\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4793.594277616191\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3546.815733116609\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4834.322690843244\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3527.198067368708\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3530.5251212021603\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3522.6242502184023\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3521.259727919686\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3521.2211112155737\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3521.2170912053753\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3521.2170702728954\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3521.216051862735\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3521.2148982133094\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3521.2148921455005\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3521.2148921455014\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3521.2148921455005\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE6E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11635.184941393152\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8015.635792896252\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8337.219884499425\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6201.9327609164175\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3577.0469265498386\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4685.41287462248\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5185.33921651428\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4793.040725320061\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3548.545800197885\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4825.116123437397\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3529.044984516677\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3532.532860953095\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3524.590340320833\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3523.28509288787\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3523.2513854733975\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3523.252119798502\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3523.246627896273\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3523.24318828745\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3523.2430983060494\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3523.2430967799855\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3523.2430941646826\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3523.2430941646826\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3523.2430941646826\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCA00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11630.910052359844\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8072.198690256536\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8135.587084339917\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6156.956238383333\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3596.1498683408495\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4698.426851254856\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5244.022410919377\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4835.394755994526\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3550.1777471250616\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4830.763110847832\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3533.1052073034093\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3534.5640167987503\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3530.243230460599\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3527.7102834972543\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3525.230195465399\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3525.5039434829832\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3525.2308818485562\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3525.1846797210246\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3525.1846002328016\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3525.1845823579\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3525.184582357896\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3525.1845823579\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883B50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11636.007446154554\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8061.883321938343\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8139.497860765538\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6169.816101631592\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3599.4414105150054\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4703.405994340723\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5267.367782156864\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4837.456793163696\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3552.157378616455\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4831.202232116886\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3535.254111909766\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3536.752883441277\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3531.938456916775\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3529.8949398620557\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3527.369025911907\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3527.5356949029256\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3527.395441998584\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3527.3219765620793\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3527.3218839432866\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3527.321869522538\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3527.3218695225323\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3527.321869522538\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11595.61980795299\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8056.116487089634\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8112.678936445805\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6197.079248190122\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3609.447908674421\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4711.791066805747\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5298.975377732584\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4847.190545230056\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3553.9305664528247\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4835.991458042428\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3536.8164003198026\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3538.9981668474975\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3540.6410951232842\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3531.6645396508293\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3529.3899907795103\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3529.3918868321707\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3529.437634898413\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3529.3378655050856\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3529.3377305329104\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3529.3377238269095\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 3529.3377229715034\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3529.3377229715034\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929DB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11664.526726104741\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8067.291928407028\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8172.322153441054\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6184.462142560287\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3600.26163062382\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4709.606457186664\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5265.6396064670935\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4846.223295872754\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3556.9462008931914\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4836.598760734667\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3539.8722574140197\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3541.2306468733887\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3536.0267122301657\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3533.8289710506924\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3531.968696625411\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3531.959466540173\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3532.0022554165253\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3531.9208103019037\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3531.920809433328\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3531.920809433328\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 215\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B5B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11664.146936705416\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8081.693408143126\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8220.974804729081\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6144.295697016285\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3605.7602567142812\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4716.922624137395\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5309.571484548822\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4848.373534127659\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3558.0607299812636\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4835.477102953924\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3540.730352696465\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3543.069345701895\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3539.6427658586986\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3536.0734875188573\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3533.702433487869\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3533.846299868885\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3533.7195915362418\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3533.6573580402155\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3533.657295616681\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3533.65728733544\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3533.657287335437\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3533.65728733544\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF220>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11675.127986171185\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8076.338876937824\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8171.817849830034\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6165.673047680784\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3626.1027352646515\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4728.705048748499\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5378.39032401537\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4857.055375675979\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3559.16277096514\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4841.578148714718\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3541.6766783843864\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3538.574482059101\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3580.319902350582\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3535.6881335524204\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3535.424999933701\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3535.367018973186\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3535.3295105789375\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3535.3294777390083\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3535.328008964205\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3535.327988636527\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3535.3279886365262\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3535.327988636527\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8880>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11674.490724376217\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8078.532107415714\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8192.678177592692\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6164.708997524119\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3645.8411432936828\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4738.706830086525\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5439.8394217372825\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4864.125590957974\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3560.1624842348624\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4846.207117739578\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3544.744221490778\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3548.2493333543016\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3537.640622107854\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4753.312695013477\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3538.5428424356437\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3536.980941002586\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3536.982311331073\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3536.9772356353756\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3536.977209392725\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3536.9772071564075\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3536.977207156408\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3536.9772071564075\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABB80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11645.930115600055\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8077.340158042802\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8202.48948423872\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6165.2088693683145\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3642.1559653909594\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4739.27652567664\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5423.594229868344\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4865.998845019036\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3562.4155479840024\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4848.372223372811\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3545.8050443230923\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3547.300536805529\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3543.884142844501\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3540.4385552706\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3539.1105341857483\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3539.0817293669243\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3539.0753993197577\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3539.072140536197\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3539.070908356468\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3539.070733025912\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3539.0707253642054\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3539.0707253642054\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3539.0707253642054\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A530>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11650.634795875805\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8098.982445919433\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8174.800119051464\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6150.908299584067\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3660.0913884651864\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4747.518437526207\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5477.647505955943\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4871.300128838009\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3563.5292796791573\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4851.837552940406\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3554.412324536206\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3553.6069813693875\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3543.06241066002\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4009.9089868502288\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3540.7664374465785\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3540.7495245183163\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3540.690118622267\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3540.674551648837\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3540.6739619456275\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    226,   Neg. LLF: 3540.6739593279517\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 3540.673959327952\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3540.6739593279517\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11696.133168258915\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8078.703942561439\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8153.2243900235835\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6192.631541844728\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3679.1235573535055\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4750.813647126886\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5472.806732120037\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4876.955711307596\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3565.5478079987993\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4857.277371933686\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3556.491291959752\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3555.9454419382564\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3544.969023282899\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3969.323580131033\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3542.697066011889\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3542.6764764438503\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3542.619359481161\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3542.602135826685\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3542.601414711779\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    226,   Neg. LLF: 3542.6014125010324\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 3542.6014125010333\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3542.6014125010324\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B7C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11671.520374038306\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8094.951786399777\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8162.074986679518\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6158.641472276997\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3705.826541858171\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4751.4014167261585\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5463.560251856403\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4878.52541167637\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3567.1336997385342\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4859.003885601379\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3558.367453597013\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3557.6753219613784\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3546.504293617215\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4099.824656003114\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3544.303651238328\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3544.2802449687088\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3544.226314158689\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3544.208771177816\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3544.2078021454345\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    226,   Neg. LLF: 3544.2078003892816\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 3544.207800389282\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3544.2078003892816\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CC10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11685.72334498863\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8081.037898974855\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8110.986213943766\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6199.808773336501\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3767.5781290863583\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4750.353428660745\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5428.202637097013\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4881.0645052631335\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3569.054712371146\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4862.723599988177\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3560.8699061023235\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3559.1485298301177\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3547.9826950510924\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4746.266122089551\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3545.9417712093923\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3545.903241181816\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3545.8617115081875\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3545.8450420636727\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3545.8419190940967\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3545.8407239284797\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3545.8407011765025\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3545.840701176505\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3545.8407011765025\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F400>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11703.454197336065\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8112.979608086473\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8136.579690131511\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6206.276182798793\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3732.497315780749\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4755.365850097155\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5445.111689520793\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4885.311724676538\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3571.1816643010193\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4865.999627367577\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3562.9687053192056\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3560.9912870998514\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3550.1396933368333\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4244.381170869563\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3548.073131563533\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3548.0333741061254\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3547.9921368623204\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3547.975498067968\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3547.9728727480506\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3547.971556015155\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3547.971534457324\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3547.971534457327\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3547.971534457324\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387EB60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11712.921714609918\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8100.876727997494\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8140.453246470959\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6147.183863513254\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3755.1555063477253\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4758.222656942353\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5449.671898686803\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4887.371099216746\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3572.846858703657\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4867.554486768732\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3564.6886614556865\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3562.6633169785287\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3551.7421592529254\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4441.37180179791\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3549.7036164658784\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3549.663980289265\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3549.623501434102\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3549.6070222161047\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3549.6040152483247\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3549.602817885606\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3549.6027955013215\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3549.602795501324\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3549.6027955013215\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11688.028125547617\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8122.005980439794\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8119.178342124209\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6166.93953879938\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3879.49553242974\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4758.600053145646\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5433.933851277439\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4889.102459509091\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3574.495740612454\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4869.114280416014\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3566.7759424547667\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3564.2649840257923\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3553.1163764687703\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4757.0844286278425\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3551.2073062623585\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3551.1615789477587\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3551.128173759049\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3551.1101384986687\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3551.1074451624877\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3551.1063584033145\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3551.1063431367456\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3551.106343136747\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3551.1063431367456\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882D40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11694.502727659707\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8127.804871838271\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8108.837331457963\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6177.463620104454\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 4002.240178204427\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4761.026509053958\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5432.401055244143\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4891.82210524846\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3576.2320268075064\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4870.933066293277\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3568.7924909705657\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3565.745976122673\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3554.616881173375\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4761.655489349225\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3552.7925177727775\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3552.741459743283\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3552.7126856863815\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3552.694358783849\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3552.692045454308\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3552.691041619062\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3552.691030236032\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3552.6910302360307\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3552.691030236032\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11738.151284044994\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8105.94456623977\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8141.512918657926\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6161.265759345619\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3836.1105440007996\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4763.640207501445\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5434.90995529456\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4895.737869557352\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3578.5342347263995\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4875.611106297198\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3571.2219664848317\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3567.7440194091714\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3556.9329349459313\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4134.295774084698\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3555.106529874543\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3555.0501453763577\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3555.020851096499\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3555.003780071549\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3555.0020915701007\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3555.001028890666\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3555.001019217453\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3555.0010192174523\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3555.001019217453\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC370>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11722.29185101161\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8122.635859425242\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8224.2074195916\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6203.070888416012\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3683.5721348752304\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4758.641577973513\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5353.358777950014\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4903.467581406814\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3582.3674462786826\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4894.693755503192\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3574.9802647941146\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3571.7452797475926\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3559.523300917278\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 3681.621848722164\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3562.2699721918398\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3558.8904611601733\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3558.8825019471997\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3558.880694995534\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3558.8804538743952\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3558.8803649703077\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3558.8803645035223\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3558.8803645035223\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11799.268130122266\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8108.769294422787\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8320.508712561754\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6182.539932771572\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3651.7922010594903\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4750.614042207163\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5288.106378928678\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4898.636435044091\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3585.578774794318\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4897.247348475772\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3572.0597520812066\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3566.4933676526653\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3608.579968062896\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3562.170669690705\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3561.6334049765255\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3561.502984204735\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3561.499382131793\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3561.498587644059\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3561.498579817212\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3561.498569975247\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3561.4985696675108\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3561.4985696675108\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A76D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11779.950697922155\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8118.4219895412225\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8275.480204962088\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6167.789768401299\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3669.87291417774\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4760.070650808677\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5332.924786792\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4905.779593781717\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3587.1062873976243\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4900.05681139958\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3581.2472418898305\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3574.6494290401647\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3572.0772537457233\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3564.9432348934884\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3563.4205316614352\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3563.3340463266422\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3563.3398951236286\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3563.3339627849687\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3563.3328696536246\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3563.3328491072634\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 3563.332848323321\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3563.332848323321\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9390>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11805.939808778981\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8120.372569016667\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8284.232936829234\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6162.8666366913\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3692.3855108135563\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4770.719315821943\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5398.155598969938\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4911.8612306244195\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3588.2531156393748\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4900.509234300445\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3580.4637817975436\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3578.343815400366\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3567.1094578720504\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3889.6895203869617\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3565.0880863629027\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3565.0387675547363\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3565.005646642543\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3564.9816962731866\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3564.9800968697928\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3564.9785993226546\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3564.9785901530513\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3564.9785901530513\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3564.9785901530513\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB130>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11888.848260558261\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8119.876433119569\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8247.534953540864\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6158.575136599906\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3729.9496610670785\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4775.579181771898\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5425.1404265574765\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4913.340928935481\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3589.612452397755\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4899.096392356192\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3581.5789220043425\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3580.0884564159105\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3568.7195855446753\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3971.3652396794178\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3566.6605588851426\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3566.613978234065\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3566.5799040781762\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3566.5581136969454\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3566.5556796710616\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3566.5542309439024\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3566.5542168334177\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3566.5542168334186\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3566.5542168334177\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA500>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11847.07213124976\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8130.042460436561\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8264.871416312235\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6167.163985701556\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3723.20547707077\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4779.9005681565195\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5438.357770010055\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4917.181992518183\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3591.715405421621\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4902.024341851162\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3583.825027664965\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3581.864125835691\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3570.7797661812046\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3902.344625308502\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3568.7423293832267\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3568.6917042517853\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3568.6592974554833\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3568.638402143206\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3568.636542290632\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3568.6350669377885\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3568.6350555391036\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3568.6350555391036\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3568.6350555391036\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABC10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11851.884795902804\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8134.109688536402\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8282.821179642255\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6183.8298269251545\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3675.915709152628\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4769.8917848194715\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5342.1444712365355\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4917.202193059059\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3595.8580737197353\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4911.596761353234\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3585.0944760344564\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3581.98443551579\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3595.3604964228034\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3573.5904122665343\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3572.123063434472\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3572.073230933318\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3572.094249887038\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3572.0445282303685\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3572.043894591744\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3572.043614355395\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3572.043610211411\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3572.0436102114145\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3572.043610211411\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A83A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11826.656622903642\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8132.329991639647\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8351.888516758961\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6241.684311912504\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3677.4265898907643\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4778.4562376707\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5403.64647013996\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4916.39205296759\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3597.0157759334006\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4906.140361259653\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3583.6158174548536\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3583.3779711366583\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3576.29261323397\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3575.286755881821\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3573.7806626202064\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3573.738420533914\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3573.7336089275386\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3573.7214275678707\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3573.7198128481377\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3573.719759389734\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3573.7197545307763\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3573.719754530778\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3573.7197545307763\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAAD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11847.137524186817\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8120.723303948664\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8270.99590223848\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6174.983102744507\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3724.440421550836\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4789.687415058404\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5464.49152998658\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4924.3328770234875\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3598.060630870267\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4909.324897256201\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3589.5911836483892\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3589.3850600257074\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3577.5515735646245\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3965.985625706312\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3575.354261706698\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3575.319335979886\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3575.2757725111896\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3575.256630266242\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3575.2540890977116\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3575.252352915011\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3575.252327802072\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3575.2523272790877\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3575.2523272790877\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883EE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11853.715867368892\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8125.706951211055\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8268.82269374256\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6188.118810555516\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3769.5742136563244\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4794.154677816794\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5500.585853480572\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4925.285674290208\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3599.3953112531426\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4907.068003501048\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3591.0424008761192\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3591.594882738191\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3579.13210634388\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4039.394817689868\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3576.923087549949\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3576.8971311102714\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3576.846285609889\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3576.827322312054\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3576.826269301023\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    226,   Neg. LLF: 3576.8262675288597\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 3576.8262675288606\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3576.8262675288597\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5480>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11864.407701719272\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8129.426403185571\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8267.311074080995\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6184.98791280497\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3857.1223268210706\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4796.435258613124\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5509.176436106008\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4925.508035515658\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3600.665372544472\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4905.511452224368\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3592.322310942738\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3592.74220059068\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3580.53015939918\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4026.577305373172\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3578.379434547036\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3578.3502143615374\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3578.3125862621514\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3578.291336821317\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3578.286663339346\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3578.2849078321988\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3578.2848677968777\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3578.2848670686417\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3578.2848670686417\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9090>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11894.816057564849\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8134.922572672855\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8270.726751292415\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6185.9517798150355\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 4025.492243040078\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4798.404374380244\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5520.742183181292\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4926.0809328017585\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3602.0623964397723\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4904.1876174775625\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3594.0049440806524\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3595.008322017821\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3581.94952042956\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4366.55507772668\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3579.8472711848926\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3579.8263761253934\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3579.7853475366333\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3579.7577769941636\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3579.7564666184394\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    226,   Neg. LLF: 3579.7564651102016\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 3579.756465110203\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3579.7564651102016\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAB00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11897.373697770772\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8147.042886592736\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8269.298466260056\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6191.4400540260685\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 4349.117776698581\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4801.028920124628\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5521.720749760674\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4928.479052337338\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3603.5118251201393\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4904.791313517164\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3595.643895278125\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3596.1846281849457\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3583.3818339337513\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4777.112293598499\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3581.3550057296407\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3581.3279952460925\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3581.303474119245\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3581.2726586172566\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3581.2664864489134\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3581.265038928764\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3581.265009269747\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3581.2650087541424\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3581.2650087541424\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9C90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11903.977727546644\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8139.97852190412\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8271.05963352992\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6192.347628274292\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 4469.181832505145\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4803.723048155423\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5523.580784522064\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4931.36326396978\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3605.2878367347867\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4906.845227934869\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3597.648403002222\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3597.818697780926\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3585.103718205639\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4778.445710159732\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3583.108090964736\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3583.076983418935\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3583.0581626114\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3583.024637244517\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3583.019311000123\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3583.017876767267\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3583.0178542120693\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3583.0178542120666\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3583.0178542120693\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A85B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11963.856973875947\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8158.284149532192\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8293.34472416792\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6250.457450640023\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3966.0554183205345\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4806.584603280218\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5521.267369353298\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4936.287418210875\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3608.2853174188867\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4914.680442640476\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3600.536437176757\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3600.664783535545\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3587.9814293806076\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4786.892615372245\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3585.88219784142\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3585.8508707249675\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3585.8164468239893\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3585.7935435898544\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3585.7878630624355\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3585.786453354657\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3585.7864171267024\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3585.786416516349\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3585.786416516349\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A080>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11946.156639291085\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8180.134992929764\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8369.232560855322\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6314.509337617224\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 3890.8861546520884\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4814.473288959862\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5577.620471890187\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4939.381663066268\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3609.7492021984312\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4914.237948963446\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3601.800191827838\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3602.343077178903\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3589.7098213220434\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3989.2025068750004\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3587.5723062733423\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3587.552969044692\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3587.514275230545\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3587.4846899085433\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3587.483335162904\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    226,   Neg. LLF: 3587.483333442252\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 3587.483333442253\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3587.483333442252\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A2F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11954.45898126099\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8185.604843759846\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8309.910329727629\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6221.406031639826\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 4394.580166759795\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4815.806911660453\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5575.10967761276\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4940.109076693794\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3611.068028464726\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4911.936961805368\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3603.435582717224\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3603.44304624471\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3591.005695016773\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4789.701806907293\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3588.9777960037736\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3588.9516364604146\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3588.929851976185\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3588.898580461195\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3588.8923398317656\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3588.890884069128\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3588.8908535813953\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3588.8908530117524\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3588.8908530117524\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF6D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11981.830317686105\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8216.036403988528\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8326.347005601858\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6222.398931519943\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 4695.390492987279\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4819.001998235364\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5582.583477484908\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4943.680898974633\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3612.9944745554153\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4913.8544120938805\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3605.698655217777\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3604.9220699875846\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3592.8032750103716\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4792.017945558487\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3590.810976685355\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3590.7764005351846\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3590.760131835335\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3590.7286643787547\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3590.723788482764\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3590.7223830128414\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3590.722361904066\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3590.722361904063\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3590.722361904066\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929B10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11912.302491106215\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8218.349081105445\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8309.758830522367\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6211.971094442431\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 4127.58440141321\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4809.008698047324\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5436.702765705633\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4950.9146339195495\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3618.809041989726\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4940.613485653339\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3610.6641303909096\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3613.4410677469923\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3598.0449851928797\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4168.689958902898\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3595.792070240748\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3595.7829577490193\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3595.736830484031\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3595.6921655021515\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3595.69087719\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    226,   Neg. LLF: 3595.6908762576586\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3595.6908762576586\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 226\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A620>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11922.956754220508\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8224.46194950606\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8487.01120282013\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6260.2029798955455\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 4061.5640239252452\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4824.095663436059\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5579.693203217856\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4949.765501811755\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3619.6218270559993\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4930.984742511175\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3610.863345490177\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3616.6948709881312\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3599.758696182018\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3619.6602059608376\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3597.4852100007597\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3597.405327549259\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3597.4254841466677\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3597.402777621456\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3597.4021307451458\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3597.4020588446556\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3597.402044230302\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3597.402044230308\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3597.402044230302\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE2F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11975.150993892938\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8222.916388744588\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8365.834964571806\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6201.31535438912\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5088.533776221066\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4826.745795622391\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5579.705209113629\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4952.801360119325\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3621.593591204707\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4932.108982514843\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3613.0993936291093\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3617.5110406591048\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3601.635461412773\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3721.215871549042\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3599.4013326226127\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3599.365564452376\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3599.3991762548426\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3599.3191810563167\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3599.3148332852998\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3599.314317097061\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3599.3142766805813\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3599.314276680583\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3599.3142766805813\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929330>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11991.91940945296\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8227.073609806941\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8378.859482437854\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6192.020353119553\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5091.347117125956\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4833.202752262356\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5638.864607344151\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4955.832653989073\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3623.2447854799702\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4931.371333206394\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3614.878159486766\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3619.0292741981502\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3603.506529551741\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3664.471857649117\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3601.2853018587857\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3601.2272381238818\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3601.3103202267744\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3601.2044914157013\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3601.202967553032\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3601.2025375883823\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3601.2025281288916\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3601.202528128897\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3601.2025281288916\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12038.814067284355\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8231.694213660514\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8417.710874333796\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6213.648354889172\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5096.1143803871055\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4838.929873339251\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5668.4847415031745\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4959.963357281223\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3625.3629195848307\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4933.709001227229\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3616.985711031983\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3620.252547314329\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3605.575840877097\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3650.213912526311\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3603.336843533446\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3603.2712873270793\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3603.3591500792295\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3603.25542428115\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3603.254497897249\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3603.2541453025906\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3603.254139826151\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3603.2541398261574\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3603.254139826151\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883EE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11946.725282519064\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8288.910243897575\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8272.741667136304\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6101.27167956915\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5103.937487588204\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4807.798290848087\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5325.895397579246\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4960.300462995018\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3626.794770053727\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4967.765696363856\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3623.2590152197554\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3619.9906670076416\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3612.9164744324576\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3610.733319228842\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3610.495263074381\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3610.470595328926\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3610.467414859453\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3610.4678661004737\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3610.4669521557744\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3610.4669488068057\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3610.466948806812\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3610.4669488068057\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F2B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11977.499136804947\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8262.54456455409\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8619.274422573062\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6208.395769149249\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5106.705296745496\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4819.310146705694\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5405.28624598126\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4961.191024404524\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3630.491841068626\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4960.351412231454\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3624.9121222590297\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3623.8903448851484\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3615.2282898766953\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3613.5462913153015\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3612.7599578019826\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3612.716659896539\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3612.728545950993\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3612.709817773561\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3612.709766663552\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3612.7097647672954\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3612.709764767297\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3612.7097647672954\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C4C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11991.805810584017\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8269.861448791908\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8381.682797719843\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6148.426327826462\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5110.482052012375\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4824.90108461245\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5432.798169753498\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4964.5497638491\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3633.0470115226935\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4962.051004955606\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3626.8348294539\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3625.764246797762\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3617.323241748043\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3616.1476784097404\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3614.833224191702\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3614.7760591064\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3614.7739505683307\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3614.77378087078\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3614.7738166335025\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3614.773648485611\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3614.7736451041933\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3614.773645104193\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3614.7736451041933\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABFA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11981.21350270322\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8270.907937734684\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8380.377164067442\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6157.5128470164855\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5111.475856673562\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4830.810527085857\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5496.801975457063\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4966.807088099859\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3637.137291136687\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4957.609133308294\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3628.909967126124\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3629.4908358364273\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3619.3055816312744\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3632.4009741424397\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3616.9497948972225\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3616.8670204112964\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3616.8768075346297\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3616.8666937270195\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3616.8645842380965\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3616.864564233678\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3616.8645642336733\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3616.864564233678\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAD40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11965.69620243631\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8281.125038556853\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8353.619663227471\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6132.667781892496\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5111.444136770244\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4836.335162928327\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5540.777883458893\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4966.986892702518\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3639.0515098983383\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4955.500444439821\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3630.0069296549977\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3629.995139931956\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3621.049548542788\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3628.420261136376\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3618.7143075043577\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3618.6306011608376\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3618.6391253107713\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3618.6300794244644\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3618.628425982827\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3618.6283979943146\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3618.6283979943096\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3618.6283979943146\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABFD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11975.497188105399\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8295.972593010385\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8350.812991348837\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6130.297384612123\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5110.943014254568\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4840.710671857651\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5607.534347144306\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4967.644397396739\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3641.687120596357\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4952.8198902195145\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3631.891885733054\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3633.5110655256476\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3622.849351533855\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3629.9961911829587\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3620.5722147538845\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3620.49197142652\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3620.5080025426732\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3620.4906681544553\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3620.489808367415\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3620.489760723745\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 3620.489760206754\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3620.489760206754\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAEC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11965.562658745524\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8301.06347521258\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8351.215391009444\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6126.501390208137\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5114.859574286405\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4846.115618965279\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5631.397766128888\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4971.478415174642\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3643.6317107219475\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4955.832701923748\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3633.864862300835\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3634.4092060775497\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3624.919999631782\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3628.207628035157\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3622.6309852432596\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3622.5995912986073\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3622.7802354540963\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3622.557866211856\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3622.5523804739187\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3622.552077088397\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3622.552057548103\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3622.5520575481014\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3622.552057548103\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA980>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11959.96671652213\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8299.988746885618\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8365.409818600394\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6113.678617331068\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5117.550811279411\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4850.414206389002\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5664.32617414336\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4974.186748393623\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3645.51750777805\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4958.091369426463\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3635.9232735368632\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3636.773177658488\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3626.8901724926864\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3627.492637747604\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3624.6105577275353\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3624.5944095976674\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3624.632863932701\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3624.542049409731\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3624.5406893357285\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    226,   Neg. LLF: 3624.5406884705008\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3624.5406884705008\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 226\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABFA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11956.637923395512\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8316.523426607388\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8318.652660230191\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6096.990831734314\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5117.333107161081\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4851.88438089633\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5676.134186368315\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4974.370457491376\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3646.917834634749\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4959.202038313184\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3637.20942191677\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3637.1267847727504\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3628.562118998741\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3627.7777289899377\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3626.2932928293185\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3626.2341286462206\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3626.2342410209335\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3626.2318315706707\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3626.230099217948\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3626.2300344197165\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3626.230034419724\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3626.2300344197165\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11952.582739345004\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8337.679935803284\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8274.293941031141\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6110.185357783957\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5117.942155363202\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4852.307605977385\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5675.949967334021\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4974.93464849337\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3648.7224255405017\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4962.15642131065\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3639.019589022929\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3640.0341272616706\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3630.2195592056983\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3628.8677321712994\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3627.99100319402\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3627.9405173214545\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3627.947968422652\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3627.9354442086187\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3627.935299466927\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3627.93529034306\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3627.935288466946\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3627.9352884669433\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3627.935288466946\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A76D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 11987.669440420563\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8319.442208923367\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8355.4502917955\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6162.94896666378\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5126.099836065525\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4863.668896261531\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5709.1739837933565\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4984.213450864154\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3654.200485379427\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4966.419912670425\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3644.3726338394463\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3651.354879439011\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3635.047975778254\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3635.266185268351\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3632.831023585528\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3632.7876031557125\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3632.97059053616\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3632.7735766984733\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3632.771592341823\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3632.7715137726605\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3632.7715112939663\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3632.7715112939677\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3632.7715112939663\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A63B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12035.413346724054\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8303.540994631527\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8498.924025255832\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6154.880882682594\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5128.088540366529\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4876.538275332634\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5885.9783054736\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4986.93793974756\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3655.756910017042\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4964.232159152061\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3646.370941053973\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3648.689089347534\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3637.086443767673\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3635.1319956589673\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3634.816006522223\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3634.802801580543\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3634.791140379994\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3634.7921692515592\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3634.786876923942\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3634.786862217823\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3634.786861758541\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3634.786861758541\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CC10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12056.04368752848\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8316.276207217292\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8429.455789778705\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6161.348297038287\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5128.8703704408\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4878.9650158481745\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5911.978936146199\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4988.335693519422\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3657.220637614534\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4965.8945545430015\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3647.665868211736\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3648.1095660252895\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3638.7802144531024\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3636.629444230145\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3636.502500336227\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3636.493515492276\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3636.4845615942286\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3636.481420684423\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3636.4783338435627\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3636.4782707401982\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3636.4782690348175\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 3636.4782690348175\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3636.4782690348175\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CEB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12078.384914176131\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8322.89289129889\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8408.386643606658\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6159.563844902607\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5128.950322161968\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4883.336664755878\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6031.709243727089\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4990.361402484119\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3659.0166778596868\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4965.889447980297\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3649.568156178493\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3648.5766231400753\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3640.5505702223063\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3638.336755342363\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3638.3743944699427\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3638.3280425564535\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3638.267654027231\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3638.2648989810164\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3638.2648978553516\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3638.26489785535\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3638.2648978553516\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D900>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12077.680896686505\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8326.706933972848\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8432.606650517599\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6155.507646119995\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5133.316719050495\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4886.338098742659\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6013.253241652226\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4994.149406661736\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3661.0924543962315\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4970.007525496971\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3651.572910617182\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3650.6773043941885\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3642.5915080489917\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3640.38222730553\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3640.3845657893526\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3640.3716135070326\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3640.3110421659253\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3640.3080200382615\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3640.308018800744\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3640.308018800742\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3640.308018800744\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387FBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12093.852007169524\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8322.503809443795\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 9971.12058669441\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6136.000671021302\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5135.063603162078\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4879.984633418557\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5671.216044097329\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4997.890923625757\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3663.0436092529626\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4978.918829923475\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3653.7221068507547\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3664.652374583358\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3644.343770910775\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3642.7584933326966\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3642.1404022260763\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3642.105184469681\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3642.108585542439\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3642.1012261811684\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3642.1006945664726\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3642.100685963577\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3642.1006853103945\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3642.1006853103945\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D900>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12081.404730671395\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8325.991097037004\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8371.67838134956\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6181.127138303015\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5140.734069684707\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4893.613110845497\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6048.222185619313\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5001.77015731155\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3666.303351436258\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4976.169298253308\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3657.0226998513217\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3657.00451103763\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3647.311893968988\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3645.12749283853\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3645.099687458546\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3645.109273081879\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3645.0520479556135\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3645.029325192544\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3645.028952518407\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3645.028952196748\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3645.028952196748\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387FBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12086.116203769423\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8320.824331200944\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 10979.87892904782\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6155.908297613638\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5141.504119593134\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4888.740804220952\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5654.464010090496\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5005.652372240207\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3668.2198151604357\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4980.8730157551745\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3659.2966574234583\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3671.819168173408\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3649.0477748408184\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3647.934579702449\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3646.796292678668\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3646.7554722004406\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3646.762912773651\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3646.752366247201\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3646.7522151612793\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3646.7522107591194\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3646.752210759123\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3646.7522107591194\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE1D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12052.815546614755\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8335.135752895967\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 9407.66607118009\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6199.789429064238\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5146.482940571972\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4891.359530289024\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5739.632509976414\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5008.8621461167695\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3670.8153208912745\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4986.422941462516\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3661.8362009817793\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3675.4193713323857\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3651.3057819662426\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3649.972320208567\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3649.0793799718554\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3649.0399063587483\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3649.0492193730925\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3649.0355507286718\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3649.0353320960403\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3649.035323109325\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3649.0353224716655\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3649.0353224716655\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12062.577582110775\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8324.849744842399\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 68575.61961746658\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6183.251617558801\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5149.057288025226\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4897.355073868184\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5574.712386997796\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5014.392921364713\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3672.648843524913\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4949.948844058537\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3663.7978716559714\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3656.8022371591883\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3653.162031630764\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4185.346476891346\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3650.95767589667\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3650.9024767908613\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3650.9602277699346\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3650.874173484518\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3650.8670565269827\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3650.867012721048\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3650.8670084200503\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3650.8670084200503\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3650.8670084200503\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDDE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12097.440338424178\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8329.093588880683\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 68293.23360564197\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6194.66804112547\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5151.080200177294\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4898.396736375236\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5560.705217147815\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5015.894936172583\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3673.490563771763\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4979.68656557267\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3665.1214609282124\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3665.8966493668477\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3654.9097604213403\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3654.723363151635\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3652.5323210991874\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3652.489896308728\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3652.5311413102927\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3652.4834920405797\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3652.483361903047\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3652.4833514920438\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3652.483351492051\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3652.4833514920438\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883B50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12117.17810452846\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8340.549799970539\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 68360.55439183566\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6206.261179982035\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5154.8829288678135\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4901.824239632777\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5559.5746091773835\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5019.657448227649\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3676.1836052239078\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5001.0272172066725\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3667.5626107201097\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3687.729675125083\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3656.9499983652204\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3655.5686123351024\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3654.6467870164047\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3654.60683403864\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3654.608178011022\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3654.6049004434562\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3654.60453659582\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3654.604533517169\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3654.604533517175\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3654.604533517169\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12130.495607297667\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8347.691558182541\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 68329.38507170996\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6191.627694381978\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5155.640040066397\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4903.115624237911\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5568.392785690026\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5020.145378166214\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3677.080715950839\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5002.364111182851\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3668.623992507195\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3684.947813650048\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3658.474000943802\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3656.8095805921926\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3656.2188411887037\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3656.1797454601938\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3656.1783524880816\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3656.1783729994168\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3656.1776229817233\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3656.17759861964\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3656.177598619645\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3656.17759861964\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF580>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12140.52681229379\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8353.915011830148\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67922.49671424546\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6183.0879055451915\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5156.746931380637\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4904.136869561624\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5553.057249894444\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5021.146380163798\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3677.987657344849\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4972.838868042589\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3670.0910744975035\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3665.0860235117416\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3660.2688671596643\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3665.57897947692\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3657.7836103915743\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3657.7366337860467\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3657.8555866717925\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3657.725587048324\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3657.724929694077\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3657.7249249940305\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3657.724924994043\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3657.7249249940305\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF9A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12141.519668520032\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8357.205370961263\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67711.29034433025\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6169.804449027244\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5157.952440445242\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4904.630810097158\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5542.7360240906855\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5022.016161506949\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3678.5791404453057\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4957.734531988439\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3671.036149284825\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3663.9715965253354\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3660.391558784852\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3660.413084745143\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3659.629836675057\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 3659.253123322371\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3659.245208236875\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3659.244966292971\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3659.243944879029\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3659.2437782992056\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 3659.243777738997\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3659.243777738997\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDDE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12131.555162221095\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8369.989792466338\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67517.62127469496\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6207.221543285091\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5160.196719533773\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4906.393264662824\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5534.573489421128\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5023.818728729195\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3679.8893139001902\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4918.997589855764\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3672.2724421972043\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3664.1576751959306\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4888.255820661288\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3660.8818125641264\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3660.869085387107\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3660.8891362919385\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3660.802316238398\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3660.802095656577\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3660.801802469087\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3660.801785105729\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3660.8017844727647\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3660.8017844727647\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE050>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12141.262765970472\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8376.96133831825\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67303.35344925968\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6206.017482821686\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5161.055768507582\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4906.826817262576\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5525.6838384312405\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5024.313574890268\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3680.5446423085295\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4873.491652433844\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3673.003788725617\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3665.2949392642804\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4859.123174338818\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3662.367732007038\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3662.899557371644\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3662.5607531078904\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3662.2557780831057\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3662.2558773562114\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3662.2551876336574\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3662.255164133395\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3662.255164133402\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3662.255164133395\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB3D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12174.07694803345\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8381.974002652445\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67064.72068709927\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6207.401974593498\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5162.546035998757\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4907.958373031085\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5514.801752677082\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5025.346251005336\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3681.7129589748256\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4875.874862453243\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3674.5591002697665\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3666.7522462664056\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4846.355554905919\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3663.789346101924\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3664.716920162464\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3663.9555021037518\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3663.686922278203\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3663.6870321267947\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3663.686354224971\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3663.68634247891\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3663.6863424789153\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3663.68634247891\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA3B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12134.789267828783\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8407.528607603268\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67211.51482059821\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6199.473876131013\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5167.3470305780775\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4911.459672059089\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5518.43753086891\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5029.6573990422075\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3684.3482517172715\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4881.063382234646\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3676.7902359806303\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3668.6971263761134\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4867.115828657588\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3665.858167359273\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3665.9490768251935\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3666.2065774708535\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3665.71535887541\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3665.715850490752\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3665.714496148753\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3665.7144758468257\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3665.7144758468276\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3665.7144758468257\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB100>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12190.846991870307\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8390.889542750749\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67358.95114722472\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6245.461349936555\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5170.18370148768\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4914.0266637786135\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5524.605756678289\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5032.164857087373\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3686.440909093525\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4884.752180631988\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3678.717121760696\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3670.4244126486915\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4879.30040359667\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3667.7021646513285\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3667.6425734009736\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3667.897462904164\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3667.5248046130246\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3667.523079962575\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3667.5220375548743\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3667.521601186443\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3667.5215808441594\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3667.5215801007907\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3667.5215801007907\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9B40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12165.039979126468\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8405.289525289092\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67278.72403085654\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6220.26619219471\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5173.845713913979\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4917.580448428939\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5536.122179155414\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5035.362089532052\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3688.015497939373\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4887.588969255707\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3680.1791889849046\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3671.874109117556\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4886.142683028212\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3669.2456589787616\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3669.1668211036836\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3669.3682546240793\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3669.0609743302693\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3669.0596410618737\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3669.059102783027\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3669.058752352872\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3669.05873604947\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3669.058735441082\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3669.058735441082\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12169.161267722191\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8406.207554592116\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67016.4195498949\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6226.291265165682\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5175.888671932336\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4920.545011988461\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5543.811962465103\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5037.692454220198\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3689.7305298953975\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4890.465454821598\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3681.8198170314504\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3673.217230494869\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4892.28814208127\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3670.724724483021\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3670.5813598068485\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3670.734472887377\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3670.5084186559407\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3670.507857572992\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3670.507602335364\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3670.5074490345296\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3670.50743487054\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3670.5074348705257\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3670.50743487054\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8430>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12197.178632850477\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8392.703706189759\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67635.85564112733\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6239.814122933087\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5180.0844951944255\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4920.413634422918\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5518.361598177904\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5040.667547897403\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3692.6871582809654\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4912.134900970152\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3685.1369692814806\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3676.3671589475357\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4894.306683535741\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3673.615653118113\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3673.478621707759\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3673.730797306352\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3673.4021483647057\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3673.4026975792485\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3673.400039877933\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3673.3999413657452\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3673.399941365736\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3673.3999413657452\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882260>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12219.003851974514\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8404.335450220991\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 13235.238190437634\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6265.432169081792\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5184.628312118671\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4918.301526846433\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5494.590218269197\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5043.535710295669\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3694.547014563299\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4898.7307414983825\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3687.689384872384\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3679.551360860994\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4866.384890011436\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3676.6004510764474\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3676.3916875549003\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3676.3845553546616\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3676.403553787315\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3676.381654093019\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3676.3780438413514\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3676.377848527736\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3676.3778485277367\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3676.377848527736\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B100>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12246.582408259297\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8426.619764109502\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8470.176190804174\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6270.464128153006\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5191.15537111753\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4912.640433483724\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5683.1965435402735\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5041.654655282535\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3701.972530302618\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5040.808143650285\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3692.8307558443976\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3706.681568457761\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3681.595314498526\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3680.0062743358203\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3679.3358915207473\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3679.294771137527\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3679.297932890003\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3679.2891362926375\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3679.288991878506\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3679.2889862363445\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3679.2889862363354\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3679.2889862363445\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A6C80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12241.45991682863\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8436.409354077481\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 11272.588312567314\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6249.5249460384875\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5192.664497449641\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4920.947990115931\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5528.002231550995\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5049.4324204521845\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3700.2295497221467\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5007.710424754188\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3694.206955548082\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3686.632305492094\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 3683.2790839234804\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3756.233316522601\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3680.966946177995\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3680.9015700862865\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3680.91438049017\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3680.8773486988575\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3680.8732869594796\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3680.873271587689\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3680.873270558011\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3680.8732705580114\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3680.873270558011\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4F40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12224.560443564511\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8455.425920291806\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 16293.00747533317\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6244.093597766385\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5197.522620195045\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4929.318396981624\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5488.523121637246\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5055.170690231593\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3701.9481654309598\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4999.068905667837\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3696.1363143957765\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3687.4028700559093\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4949.464408947877\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3683.1718026962208\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3682.8654629635944\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3682.7888497955664\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3682.779862388671\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3682.779109481108\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3682.7755519543152\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3682.7755330440123\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3682.7755330440095\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3682.7755330440123\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABB80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12206.989536159947\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8473.820020301386\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67898.71397723086\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6249.193123108616\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5198.942904159514\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4933.773175208416\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5513.290324216208\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5057.792981479176\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3704.3819081895945\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4990.568166765541\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3697.6984299684755\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3688.6018337401256\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4956.520060337746\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3684.68604778666\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3684.386627186067\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3684.344711907555\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3684.330384843831\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3684.333080659119\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3684.3291323559934\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3684.3291250312445\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3684.3291250312473\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3684.3291250312445\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8A00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12222.444800570856\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8480.587809661984\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67671.70403819371\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6217.056555735551\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5201.72212455654\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4938.016734864565\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5529.677875037921\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5060.975132826816\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3706.2485467011647\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4996.5718456830655\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3699.307487761528\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3690.5267159874484\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4977.261183028237\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3686.5627904201842\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3686.014273162285\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3685.9387930025796\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3685.9250013438923\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3685.9268859211707\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3685.9242953876137\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3685.924292089661\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3685.9242920896604\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3685.924292089661\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF3D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12247.453053399124\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8489.534522526632\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67513.51592518424\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6203.9912581924455\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5202.598773554671\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4940.994031961396\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5556.989046314155\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5062.98834927752\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3708.6055812337345\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4968.004591628037\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3700.441640230823\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3690.782564416458\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4962.152297017207\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3687.7567135856766\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3687.457233115958\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3687.678896721953\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3687.393451125925\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3687.3950004507715\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3687.390657156897\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3687.3906210194273\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3687.390621019441\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3687.3906210194273\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F700>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12235.941440386454\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8514.80485474307\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67373.88299690527\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6217.01067194753\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5206.183123534545\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4945.255934249215\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5573.777772386564\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5066.640735633773\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3710.673562714481\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4971.363261074442\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3702.123701107514\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3692.41657005251\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4972.119333606771\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3689.347141073153\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3689.0252383626057\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3689.079153929364\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3688.992781438619\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3688.9921089152986\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3688.9902085606227\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3688.9901582403327\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3688.990158240345\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3688.9901582403327\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12247.339623913438\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8525.874495501115\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67332.4125054534\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6208.759369252352\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5209.484229839532\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4948.95765029846\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5590.515202894534\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5070.114271089087\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3713.304992239542\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4972.959234094419\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3704.085983461703\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3694.0760223799366\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4981.865245522349\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3691.018948774449\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3690.693699185573\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3690.6885502877376\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3690.657041218191\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3690.6476912882754\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3690.647251755117\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3690.6472466727478\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3690.647245974873\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3690.647245974873\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CEE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12232.92236310958\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8536.703739435618\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67063.19533431824\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6181.654257537155\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5209.881066222419\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4951.698179834974\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5605.610623250072\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5071.573370625601\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3714.739720221326\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4924.117122892683\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3704.4712327616935\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3694.4895571536954\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4981.147934362333\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3694.2306483056964\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3692.059789223569\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3692.029870311051\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3692.00934682405\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3692.0083134357264\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3692.008280696559\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3692.0082793244555\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3692.0082682610046\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3692.0082682610027\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3692.0082682610046\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387FBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12228.750854250617\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8559.063715484495\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 66892.5761775439\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6170.0362746428855\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5213.456335816487\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4955.508921446935\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5610.165216144969\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5075.26341739782\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3716.471481061736\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4927.449550169779\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3706.2682653537727\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3696.1538241338185\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4982.281307579984\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3695.799520945868\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3693.721442525334\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3693.6927427361165\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3693.671997262546\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3693.670989122923\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3693.6709708303747\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3693.670942056673\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3693.670934051455\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3693.6709340514444\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3693.670934051455\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C3D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12273.399427848977\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8592.262985381492\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 67042.4126259915\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6149.08932803305\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5218.5918497892735\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4958.731753969126\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5611.776568870233\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5079.2800328716685\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3718.7541307483734\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4931.495470530787\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3708.5052046843175\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3698.1748350469315\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4992.131276302435\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3697.6866829241603\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3695.7210377136057\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3695.6947272260795\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3695.6737365414465\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3695.6726992559093\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3695.67270494445\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3695.672434942818\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3695.6724290429956\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3695.6724290429947\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3695.6724290429956\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12265.820558452175\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8608.255215603302\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 66946.46102721425\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6155.743401843127\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5223.045808341069\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4962.570272686565\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5608.7832259359875\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5083.220939705179\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3720.7344309807645\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4935.7297875221775\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3710.573018455738\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3700.063925823428\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4996.262829958354\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3699.048925197667\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3697.6032066955977\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3697.576670162679\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3697.5552221955236\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3697.5542605792175\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3697.55385422426\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3697.553531243786\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3697.5535127906005\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3697.5535122454585\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3697.5535122454585\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38825C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12259.7804632152\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8621.868016681776\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 66504.09071381381\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6132.160014276407\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5223.440862599568\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4966.253715818728\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5626.540676838198\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5085.147202341335\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3721.6328730908044\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4934.80576958252\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3711.7417737455444\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3701.3956850754103\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4989.0622468316415\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3700.7343912184765\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3698.946968287683\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3698.9178219169708\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3698.8960390558696\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3698.895349706162\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3698.8951282738526\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3698.894869224686\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3698.894858176939\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3698.894858176925\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3698.894858176939\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882D40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12251.66153273409\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8630.981473318256\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 66138.77340549232\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6134.964993315282\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5225.16890901991\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4969.987596866502\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5637.243202173613\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5087.856268731875\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3722.9863847805636\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4935.971999748372\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3713.2119334674526\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3702.727001953579\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4983.125158918187\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3701.897465680104\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3700.3114027933234\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3700.2779567761636\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3700.256408497734\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3700.2559039571934\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3700.2556329335303\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3700.25541774452\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3700.255405808723\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3700.2554058087076\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3700.255405808723\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD900>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12275.977950168428\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8648.501097758166\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 66101.01127438646\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6161.423464497249\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5229.545058277472\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4973.8329636072285\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5651.7350112957965\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5091.830956406755\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3724.6810615281197\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4938.2583242772325\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3714.977745341239\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3704.4247816749275\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4984.677152705699\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3703.465083987929\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3701.9941024169702\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3701.9598777345577\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3701.9377915712193\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3701.9375450229545\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3701.9368833854287\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3701.9366995926102\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3701.936699592615\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3701.9366995926102\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12264.214645941152\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8663.403673381054\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65975.68304617186\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6149.927117546955\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5230.292762480979\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4977.0457025381775\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5684.916565802881\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5093.778608779213\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3725.8959845873796\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4936.837967336163\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3716.3819890255186\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3705.69325882524\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4976.390885541721\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3704.462471485421\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3703.2859802777766\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3703.246002182413\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3703.223771999133\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3703.2235456800886\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3703.2231388066316\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3703.2229994405016\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3703.222984587984\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3703.222984587971\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3703.222984587984\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB0A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12252.359777321146\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8663.220994936466\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65825.17846178391\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6148.821949194604\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5233.895981973618\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4980.648508440158\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5691.810874842364\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5097.1995548487175\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3727.322839412539\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4939.00945988577\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3717.923982239774\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3707.2088713704543\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4975.561799411387\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3705.9527761027994\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3704.8127861659864\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3704.774446244401\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3704.7528230876687\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3704.7526328442373\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3704.7522838239634\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3704.7521605017564\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3704.7521469739104\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3704.752146973898\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3704.7521469739104\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB250>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12262.364998023098\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8661.202778637991\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65965.3738629834\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6143.261471003319\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5237.613524331071\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4982.778651482218\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5683.749968425354\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5099.979940985946\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3729.2902142139706\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4942.67761349956\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3719.924211779038\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3709.0911186394906\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4984.179041756834\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3708.0540097239764\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3706.681534373157\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3706.6483539083047\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3706.6276001276024\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3706.627971450561\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3706.626704394417\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3706.6266240119244\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3706.62662401193\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3706.6266240119244\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB310>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12275.493749921334\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8671.365658867613\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65802.2011287344\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6138.742717267425\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5239.603492162473\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4987.313056209976\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5727.06263530805\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5102.951609233061\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3730.153369758382\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4940.6176088486645\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3721.136522556354\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3710.4147765051566\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4972.524854555262\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3708.908646519808\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3708.0046167137334\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3707.965370509925\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3707.9431981816356\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3707.943098205991\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3707.9427188965137\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3707.9426107142913\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3707.9426107142945\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3707.9426107142913\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA5C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12320.001679030676\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8666.597648091583\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65579.72804535611\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6129.079355787281\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5243.115572832456\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4990.5256444370025\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5715.433490294835\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5106.2950110313695\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3731.896499466925\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4944.323075376598\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3722.9575614087703\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3712.077750188931\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4976.153724545542\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3710.714279696619\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3709.6695800884713\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3709.6323794959008\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3709.611681956431\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3709.6118102306245\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3709.611121032468\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3709.611046402707\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3709.6110464027097\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3709.611046402707\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA290>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12308.994759461493\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8682.373574530902\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65517.475651583794\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6126.323311054568\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5246.1142304791065\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4995.150564269314\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5761.740398268349\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5109.96391519009\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3732.9123885469717\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4942.813454508261\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3724.3041026904757\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3713.466965769343\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4966.793638290719\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3711.8390531783934\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3711.0514918397143\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3711.0044820352805\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3710.9834928791024\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3710.9837434868527\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3710.9828465131095\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3710.9827996778813\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3710.9827996778827\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3710.9827996778813\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9F90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12329.737259095251\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8709.970728101292\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 66201.79431658189\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6160.680937257613\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5250.644072998841\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4992.384929244015\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5697.879785066902\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5110.77051415942\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3736.6823869866616\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4952.955123558097\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3727.362082117237\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3717.023768983422\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4991.425418086109\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3715.4646771149382\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3714.5584121645416\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3714.525252823587\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3714.5010869761973\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3714.501680294331\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3714.499695289095\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3714.4995895088023\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3714.4995895088073\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3714.4995895088023\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB040>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12341.150235320889\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8780.136520703245\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 66562.36341390623\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6166.298113970921\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5257.035553771116\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 4993.216061387935\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5657.486512274678\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5114.097863827631\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3739.9088574855678\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4962.448308919667\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3730.169569228864\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3719.3552698995604\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5020.108566802184\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3719.339375992645\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3716.938804508507\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3716.9266863072744\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3716.908625743892\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3716.9087246417866\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3716.90731991053\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3716.9071905774676\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3716.90719057747\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3716.9071905774676\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12268.723672137306\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8810.114007224964\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65697.38010330436\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6097.397120647979\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5260.650232514733\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5000.204086676818\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5658.702808607144\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5119.352373245025\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3741.335470894386\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4964.518506781117\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3731.9317569975215\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3720.9365411234244\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5018.4355891123305\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3720.6012842482633\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3718.511132577839\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3718.4951620404204\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3718.4768333256293\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3718.4774218954467\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3718.475527353293\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3718.4754376961673\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3718.47543769617\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3718.4754376961673\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12271.598811127084\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8817.65124734366\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65247.60619742925\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6067.217941593082\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5262.73918125066\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5005.330384385082\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5681.878396381042\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5123.358903167798\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3742.4134085359665\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4963.767386774291\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3733.375096937605\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3722.502951430506\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5002.376278493185\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3721.2514357691857\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3720.036902526004\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3720.0098671400524\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3719.9894016262215\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3719.9904997667777\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3719.988080293438\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3719.988016204539\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3719.988016204544\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3719.988016204539\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A500>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12325.949312966542\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8811.67078848024\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 12850.8481515016\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6124.456741647933\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5267.367908984\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5003.04455571196\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5676.979663658478\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5124.234857131396\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3745.973481803588\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4969.744401891065\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3736.3527370693464\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3725.390236710187\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5029.653971721493\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3724.8078013633776\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3722.9084391336573\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3722.9000064876855\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3722.8830352103478\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3722.882235418664\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3722.8816643374403\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3722.881531669329\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3722.8815287334855\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3722.881528733481\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3722.8815287334855\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38825C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12350.547982359012\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8804.057140467108\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 66008.92948820509\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6139.930308214041\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5270.415671321012\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5009.0263667823965\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5705.763463722988\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5128.254870226667\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3747.1840412887486\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4968.4299396619035\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3737.942748822241\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3727.1749479056784\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5016.2793236243\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3725.751910068094\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3724.606611931383\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3724.5882500081175\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3724.5662054155837\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3724.5675998212437\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3724.563958185924\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3724.563876868602\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3724.563876322315\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3724.563876322315\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CEE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12341.999251168118\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8834.969620329182\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65850.42439953145\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6130.526190353466\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5273.980460196484\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5014.139745716517\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5736.135185755366\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5132.599388175433\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3748.5453542630285\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4968.153700976967\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3739.5968689558886\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3728.8267736810685\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5012.749943856483\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3727.1194468022777\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3726.2237193510255\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3726.1973761800737\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3726.172733112171\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3726.1751188796634\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3726.1699486049292\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3726.169882768776\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3726.16988206062\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3726.16988206062\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38825C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12372.256333890262\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8854.383065139504\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65578.02361056655\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6115.202716838417\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5274.028443369797\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5017.909318768663\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5787.606970520663\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5135.232616923544\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3749.355319050533\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4963.3551493926625\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3740.8536743288614\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3730.3133400663914\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4991.940261453985\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3728.035299649122\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3727.6168773931495\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3727.8000049834973\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3727.55387591025\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3727.54825240692\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3727.546091226623\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3727.5460118912697\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3727.546007453727\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3727.5460074537245\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3727.546007453727\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE6E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12341.873851683558\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8848.096753414806\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65246.43711552676\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6080.8981714244455\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5277.467767866467\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5022.520081277563\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5805.377404179464\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5139.506357464908\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3750.672722096348\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4964.37233598345\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3742.442853391637\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3731.829548897509\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4987.977917425069\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3729.5208286231764\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3729.126825255946\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3729.2993070829352\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3729.0568239853583\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3729.0494213054794\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3729.047542874037\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3729.04743980107\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3729.0474353451887\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3729.047435345187\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3729.0474353451887\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE050>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12352.98791440617\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8859.570593851327\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65105.60061980765\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6070.935627541841\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5278.621870871849\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5025.975987126231\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5852.250008473186\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5142.198806440795\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3751.605955287724\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4961.471841290462\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3743.7506014913624\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3733.250305702595\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4971.684699900357\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3730.772652412128\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3730.5172252426164\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3730.6356115905514\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3730.423163255854\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3730.404580715017\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3730.403684264309\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3730.403668404282\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3730.403666535286\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3730.403666535287\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3730.403666535286\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD0C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12363.279369504817\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8862.640482823579\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65572.49743913428\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6103.2299430680705\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5284.076575848423\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5026.741784044451\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5785.458815595869\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5144.535167054906\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3755.9291943918347\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4972.743427397627\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3747.270797158654\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3736.7778456625892\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4998.585427808882\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3734.298333558524\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3734.0025596719806\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3734.172654668874\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3733.93193446569\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3733.922464502866\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3733.9199584331495\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3733.9197322939635\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3733.9197259506236\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3733.9197259506223\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3733.9197259506236\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A8C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12374.156129748531\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8869.300812328273\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 66091.92878810024\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6109.080956137024\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5286.732882218463\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5031.363664518196\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5895.24802562556\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5147.817739907854\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3757.1386672036424\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4965.589302940054\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3748.902315955484\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3738.651314792918\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4989.619623575151\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3735.8697984682517\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3735.759243906054\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3735.8170559213304\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3735.6708826230183\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3735.646752694217\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3735.6449417825747\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3735.6449225642723\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3735.644920844318\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3735.644920844319\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3735.644920844318\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12394.314144347358\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8872.363423061652\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65688.68236692081\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6106.154700816918\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5291.392160270139\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5036.138703723884\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5875.133145752598\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5152.718447127101\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3759.0703371969794\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4970.031364217453\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3750.941806618476\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3740.4955096858375\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4991.479786417358\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3737.697321013852\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3737.562126013834\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3737.64420610419\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3737.472727911684\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3737.4476239754117\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3737.4458364872044\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3737.4458147319\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3737.445812905742\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3737.4458129057425\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3737.445812905742\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CED70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12363.215083006686\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8886.527202340185\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65712.00180015332\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6104.83343460554\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5294.38919929936\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5041.143951330982\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5954.651696502403\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5157.054760502466\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3760.3078279489396\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4966.148122029463\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3752.575111154675\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3742.231277801548\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4980.42449581514\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3739.2549196350965\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3739.1952001453783\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3739.2169739771657\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3739.092583453693\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3739.058043205883\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3739.0572620794646\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3739.057252954558\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3739.057251605198\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3739.057251605198\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3739.057251605198\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880220>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12374.113534935383\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8896.621527484976\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 65459.27482127599\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6091.413035351834\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5297.386812272502\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5045.722609284738\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 5980.217252512861\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5160.985713860409\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3761.490915232832\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4966.444681711611\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3754.0963872840766\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3743.711011801851\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4973.7718355003335\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3740.76122157431\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3740.732029124604\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3740.696293644991\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3740.576009587831\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3740.5719225813755\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3740.5719162918167\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3740.571916291815\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3740.5719162918167\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12409.441012048532\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9083.646339596131\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8366.736002455109\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6085.157215162561\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5299.296434440123\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5064.497624644033\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23940.26254129687\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5147.851013482823\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3762.4960544121723\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4892.226989632231\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3755.821814687131\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3744.0779133047263\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5020.838558200439\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3742.758314517446\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3742.089598066771\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3742.07092510057\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3742.069813860261\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3742.0697116736874\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3742.0696294450117\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3742.0696272187834\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3742.06962721879\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3742.0696272187834\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CED10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 88840.6330296901\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 72125.56162044467\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 4760.70738089131\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4416.560361639927\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8261.680241003342\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5458.6077898786\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5346.102793585\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5229.219024223708\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 3757.4976393147067\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 3756.4651690866012\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 3755.866082573272\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 3744.625896602149\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 3745.2768434998343\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 3743.4134708452284\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3743.365469549835\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3743.3638680732493\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3743.363817083598\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3743.3638078325507\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3743.363807832553\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3743.3638078325507\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD510>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 91686.55648063165\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 71840.15123933609\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 4616.742359066095\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4545.983086558217\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8313.349923344775\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5454.969826956405\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5355.328441483961\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5231.5801753718115\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 3759.0896316895573\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 3757.1516788881527\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 3757.2911776608507\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 3745.8570537135697\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 3747.22951468906\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 3744.7220008749764\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3744.6664834614894\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3744.664200260894\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3744.664104088834\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3744.6640890692897\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3744.6640883431564\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3744.6640883431564\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880220>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 91461.32774171999\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 71584.08813427392\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 4534.960879930139\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 4852.261592148416\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8134.961010019129\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5441.799783591453\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5334.557587953419\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5235.284076955069\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 3760.6687455110687\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 3754.027076487967\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 3758.527638822699\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 3747.070835550893\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 3758.595959728864\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 3746.017590152087\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3745.9673651178714\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3745.9608835026365\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3745.960189704845\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3745.9600840839908\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3745.9600814481146\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3745.960081448109\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3745.9600814481146\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB340>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12370.32363787654\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8964.583945901439\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 9268.844375088613\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5913.863458661555\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5305.815517109795\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5033.655984791179\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6356.9456574682645\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5159.17025503818\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3774.0129263834324\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4968.426479534724\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3765.7701760685454\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3755.6992097937\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5003.970194279064\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3753.7575512871645\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3753.615780499364\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3753.608816762432\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3753.481086520459\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3753.472232577216\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3753.469917262698\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3753.4695608596903\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3753.469552606093\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3753.469552606093\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3753.469552606093\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB8B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12404.553446628404\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8963.915331736203\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 62149.002771077234\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6012.142955694735\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5309.723296083375\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5045.039258597873\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6117.108122488534\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5164.789219415621\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3775.97989820803\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4975.810367418113\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3768.1371946755717\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3758.008577562302\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4992.336974237029\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3755.91975935381\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3755.9512291900373\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3755.833315881332\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3755.7720652828193\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3755.771660422227\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3755.7715481775867\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3755.7715420110576\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3755.7715420110544\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3755.7715420110576\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12427.149224445911\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8954.452919323048\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 61116.35503320043\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5923.71058613407\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5313.958061956633\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5051.146426195887\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6107.508473924379\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5172.655580367416\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3777.9800565442956\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4981.755931523809\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3770.513379139228\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3760.026788815805\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4989.789493088942\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3757.9357924775177\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3758.02565661508\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3757.847143498492\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3757.8009628828745\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3757.800786956639\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3757.8005615279035\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3757.8005552947025\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3757.8005552946966\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3757.8005552947025\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABA90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12424.87721452022\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9009.711000395742\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 60905.44752903791\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5919.632902286426\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5313.424761785754\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5055.636608824223\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6294.1219155556055\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5178.424974279568\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3779.163890217517\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4974.372164413564\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3772.613813205684\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3761.8209109996264\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4951.381547995137\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3759.626914277372\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3759.7228487774173\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3759.601546209436\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3759.5975527753353\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3759.5977858459\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3759.597420175874\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3759.597419454458\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3759.597419454458\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BFA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12399.125987529973\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9096.331564641656\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 10861.765015106128\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5920.9842384374515\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5318.525039542472\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5054.857295119496\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6400.6798617729455\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5179.607692748335\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3782.0840334378995\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4973.989092110672\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3775.130170541671\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3764.321128303367\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4972.146258265651\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3762.049642223473\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3762.2085455845836\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3761.994126400018\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3761.976327931457\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3761.974734517235\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3761.974730132884\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3761.97473013288\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3761.974730132884\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B7C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12471.819798757322\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8971.208128850203\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 61378.74879152472\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5939.161415704812\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5326.735876577206\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5060.797536262791\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6026.714624377998\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5182.975020519241\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3786.733847144056\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4999.138428932605\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3778.783910647272\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3768.0381716960637\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5031.201954840199\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3766.2141273107613\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3765.9966636138943\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3766.059529718018\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3765.806730344122\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3765.812130735747\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3765.8040782938897\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3765.8040178794986\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3765.804017879514\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3765.8040178794986\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A500>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12423.734206433446\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8965.015894445452\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 61748.56757147483\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5966.236344357621\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5330.302094672157\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5065.905787652985\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6147.212882210453\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5187.112943334958\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3788.7059749274867\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4996.0585714097715\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3781.041624144969\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3770.21391040614\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5031.627157955525\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3768.307334603299\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3768.198906712575\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3768.166605371928\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3767.989245267546\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3767.994190234027\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3767.9866518700455\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3767.986608090125\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3767.986608090126\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3767.986608090125\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29C30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12459.663582827654\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8970.993720824074\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 61673.10928440165\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5961.255622311556\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5333.262254723704\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5070.352042309583\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6217.710927775056\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5191.469298439186\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3790.592125366734\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4995.7855225679\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3783.150836096509\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3772.3135558944723\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5024.157449198061\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3770.28719779773\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3770.29628242285\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3770.143394929023\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3770.0604722177577\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3770.060423457137\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3770.059956671719\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3770.0599370612254\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3770.059937061226\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3770.0599370612254\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38810F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12464.336076440535\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9118.590091324228\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8673.370787860875\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5928.924132656452\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5335.511245894986\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5069.572800052155\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7735.793311580971\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5190.26153944472\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3792.186535224197\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4965.405554749457\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3784.80313076896\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3774.055396276936\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5026.476884885644\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3772.1533695181147\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3772.1807959276457\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3772.0309165737426\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3771.9923461982357\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3771.9922980714\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3771.992156245745\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3771.9921541357894\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3771.992154135788\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3771.9921541357894\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882E90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12480.693196143686\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9147.658323103451\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8401.940298804351\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5952.423221503092\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5340.074342691576\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5079.504864848651\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23821.760863943327\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5195.009236550894\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3794.4392771886314\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4946.458947951445\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3786.876126495073\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3776.23435680892\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5028.777068821875\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3774.401180711916\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3774.4351347081024\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3774.307863753968\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3774.2774360521935\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3774.2774100786496\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3774.277274277563\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3774.2772736818124\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3774.2772736818124\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A500>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12497.788503761556\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 8966.224874750947\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 62202.43612819542\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6013.564884723057\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5346.269434302629\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5082.264660999945\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6219.022567767502\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5203.0943547416755\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3798.529120750415\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5007.006161648742\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3790.9357186484353\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3779.8909066863484\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5047.712831657561\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3777.871306663562\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3777.7690512533427\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3777.721076380055\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3777.5606557216993\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3777.563254786566\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3777.5535594315984\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3777.5534733899885\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3777.5534717257997\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3777.553471725804\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3777.5534717257997\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BAC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12502.646744444115\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9067.07696247827\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 62784.39023547384\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6016.216358857426\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5347.30899961887\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5083.449493915068\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6275.683403810667\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5204.173944581136\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3800.073041639372\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5004.758861507372\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3792.7184704837664\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3781.6476953126794\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5038.929700306993\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3779.559810112275\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3779.600391410562\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3779.4240820926443\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3779.3473664843495\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3779.3470677088626\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3779.3466276552563\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3779.3465982957587\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3779.3465968723067\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3779.3465968723044\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3779.3465968723067\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C298D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12527.914898662435\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 11691.795561854382\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8377.560272885088\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5978.75605738947\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5346.684678774901\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5063.436649980447\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6268.725987456929\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5194.825858535802\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3801.7809721214608\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5002.598814918016\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3794.0610851597366\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3783.220024851832\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5058.038273368406\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3781.3080051515744\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3781.2058528101265\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3781.148135480371\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3780.9966254446217\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3780.9986996771167\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3780.9910110671844\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3780.9909232640603\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3780.9909212568987\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3780.990921256901\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3780.9909212568987\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABC70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12561.975975065956\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 76298.59165899358\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8361.34983573337\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5967.74370837464\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5347.06298572758\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5059.356064365256\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6128.29197314181\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5195.830828432854\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3803.5451447421483\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5009.692174618982\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3795.6138632036423\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3784.9502117094517\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5054.016327180678\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3782.9890404579173\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3782.8493744376988\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3782.8904014628324\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3782.6636760987676\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3782.6668637250987\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3782.6571594819825\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3782.657096776493\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3782.6570944950577\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3782.657094495059\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3782.6570944950577\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABB20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12569.533986068327\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 76307.85755438573\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8361.120873986249\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5965.502519462061\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5351.194993310468\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5062.996505785153\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6138.768429366387\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5199.667315254585\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3805.5482725350075\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5012.046470744829\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3797.6237391697728\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3786.9708669642255\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5056.686236125815\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3784.968138672742\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3784.834159328407\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3784.8705192817465\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3784.650525707122\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3784.650246656556\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3784.6413040058915\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3784.641193722952\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3784.6411913531692\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3784.641191353171\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3784.6411913531692\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387FD00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12531.342567272206\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 10393.273130760757\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8374.935257386454\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5986.253627734197\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5356.965237247373\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5079.880660632437\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6554.8202161498775\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5206.212222214876\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3808.058040305974\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4999.002674450043\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3800.7253045691964\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3789.7371751235614\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5056.451980253347\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3787.6994340981805\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3787.749174236341\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3787.560456684472\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3787.5082671260775\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3787.507523836951\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3787.5073402437847\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3787.507314981335\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3787.5073145626993\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3787.5073145626993\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12562.15514729359\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9465.750340300774\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8383.698748653864\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5992.156410707128\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5362.529412937414\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5097.280411796544\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7836.24980239133\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5214.877545313425\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3810.275581055771\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4973.964960891425\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3802.785119635015\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3791.905788841198\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5046.905139491349\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3789.884834421835\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3789.9829149933894\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3789.803360968204\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3789.777960332849\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3789.7774395199094\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3789.7773329130605\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3789.7773269423774\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3789.777326942375\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3789.7773269423774\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5600>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12511.599850435632\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9047.65967872637\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 62426.93087761524\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6006.87753586258\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5368.397325479058\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5105.209683958765\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6309.717299493082\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5226.24316850955\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3813.49532920974\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5019.919474980923\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3806.4046414218674\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3795.3515189897885\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5056.202673309275\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3792.9163957999226\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3792.9811974585464\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3792.8210142788207\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3792.750236246381\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3792.74727216247\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3792.7471946626374\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3792.7471946626433\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3792.7471946626374\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C4C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12486.842531158181\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9875.672419609638\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8312.36187276289\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5963.402132996621\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5368.021961041042\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5095.948622652095\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7005.885643448919\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5218.841460857399\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3814.8572917978618\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4992.152471774746\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3807.684066759557\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3796.72239329478\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5059.840059854942\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3794.5651606877855\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3794.6437962511554\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3794.4650646101627\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3794.4272059210325\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3794.4256310664623\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3794.4255789117565\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3794.4255789117624\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3794.4255789117565\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CA60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12467.551669584183\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 76772.95676313087\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8284.759598360133\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5978.6484678790575\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5369.300318689958\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5078.187116991456\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6146.136996062271\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5217.547429516759\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3817.1642717306486\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5026.592364202297\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3809.4751835290367\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3798.5448071719775\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5084.880028336669\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3796.46241760841\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3796.228821510399\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3796.313257588675\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3796.0581570725517\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3796.0436799291892\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3796.039566472821\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3796.0392429554677\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3796.0392343889007\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3796.039233653343\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3796.039233653343\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392BF10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12452.361199196337\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 76549.5182750968\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8271.814473843782\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5955.91685299378\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5371.619419596976\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5080.976264205458\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6180.636185269733\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5220.484074390098\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3818.701459529624\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5026.349852693705\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3811.106176550391\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3800.2799609324443\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5078.934335376106\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3798.126478788099\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3797.9770423569626\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3798.003433925797\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3797.794159349772\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3797.775341166706\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3797.7713601402547\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3797.7708377337603\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3797.7708285777926\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3797.7708277441407\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3797.7708277441407\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12455.826037513058\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 76233.57230653657\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8267.683462543577\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5941.8853169059175\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5373.388315023531\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5082.764720689014\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6195.49220409416\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5222.455942162974\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3820.2847458690067\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5028.045737212212\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3812.687831912843\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3801.818107763634\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5080.93107767638\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3799.7125939712228\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3799.5691701692476\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3799.5852058424366\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3799.3823212872335\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3799.36578532981\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3799.3610188549947\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3799.3604900022083\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3799.360479266409\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3799.360478443897\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3799.360478443897\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12456.758632023792\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 76013.65260301749\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8260.67992115736\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5922.815225338583\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5375.568325985079\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5084.692786601978\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6219.067857368579\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5224.979136128592\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3821.8004042824505\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5028.557209758033\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3814.19284159021\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3803.424903168854\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5073.182596238805\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3801.2714317366394\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3801.1822659206473\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3801.155448904969\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3801.001163899522\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3800.97902925964\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3800.975805598601\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3800.97577722038\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3800.975775026136\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3800.975775026136\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3800.975775026136\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CED70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12454.80983189337\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 75664.34320139389\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8248.440301637469\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5900.45784614825\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5376.3668955241055\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5085.091156525979\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6223.248366566733\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5225.876620080533\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3823.360286035307\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5030.496448262586\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3815.659004574404\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3804.837543988113\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5075.627256391706\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3802.7786988656208\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3802.6567104403102\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3802.651000690652\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3802.477845686074\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3802.4615513997933\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3802.457227017857\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3802.4566699049587\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3802.4566595279\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3802.4566587442096\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3802.4566587442096\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12458.302196755787\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 75490.51226628022\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8249.800307424757\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5880.116743487968\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5379.464244982211\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5086.845948105905\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6223.507204613195\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5228.638665608291\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3825.0290271933727\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5033.045666741072\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3817.221694085546\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3806.4478643374478\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5074.255216047665\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3804.3941384035434\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3804.2571874118203\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3804.2632379331017\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3804.090885228962\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3804.072931495341\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3804.069517469681\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3804.0690132392415\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3804.06900537067\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3804.0690046466275\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3804.0690046466275\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAFB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12483.121738669797\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 75165.22448164434\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8243.304582373403\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5864.314128867849\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5380.742008523147\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5087.469979509184\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6221.073537286269\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5229.680206104376\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3826.6114974868296\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5035.597168194013\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3818.67108958056\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3807.8140702054993\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5077.742262687958\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3805.8952796748963\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3805.68943327996\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3805.7349005604383\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3805.529735539624\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3805.5166856809974\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3805.512861806302\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3805.5125429483533\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3805.512535261083\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3805.512534670269\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3805.512534670269\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9420>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12465.692626103482\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 75257.80261873326\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8196.005284320905\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5868.591290317992\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5384.846102663444\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5090.560928447156\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6218.848958353819\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5233.277705747983\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3828.65607787068\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5038.757221475901\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3820.7371891776597\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3809.8102619883593\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5082.498964768049\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3807.8730711884855\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3807.62751497723\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3807.7007894812978\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3807.475902699837\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3807.460811558575\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3807.457759822304\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3807.457483255879\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3807.457477546552\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3807.457476989225\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3807.457476989225\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8700>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12486.393344420889\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74937.44703021355\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8244.495777379514\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5845.27832647121\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5385.9419054326\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5092.839777578809\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6248.880035445605\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5234.240264794602\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3830.1198966696384\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5038.602262773854\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3822.1786610639647\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3811.1351081635758\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5082.83671084116\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3809.3150805757314\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3809.0355665438037\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3809.102651322032\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3808.8869364408692\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3808.8739519433593\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3808.8712020778357\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3808.870981366998\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3808.8709762510944\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3808.8709757655793\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3808.8709757655793\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A4A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12495.673410387679\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74606.4927750401\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8144.827233391714\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5830.044298836304\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5387.603182779554\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5094.013671215063\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6265.781355471767\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5236.214373394271\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3831.5325859959135\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5040.228600513608\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3823.5763406688625\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3812.409360726453\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5081.60193977638\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3810.7208707645214\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3810.401727642027\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3810.4564785768366\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3810.2587291162804\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3810.247902515075\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3810.245441894128\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3810.245270585687\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3810.245265943026\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3810.2452659430205\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3810.245265943026\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AB30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12493.160904278004\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74904.61057329203\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8174.046689718305\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5848.470591893492\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5391.631703088809\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5096.724594540469\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6243.876904486193\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5239.521685490732\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3833.81633474583\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5044.5876265953575\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3825.8733403336523\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3814.724989549903\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5088.556802689091\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3812.961961136465\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3812.615679033955\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3812.4748999988265\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3812.4626462383217\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3812.4598160718415\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3812.4561732226334\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3812.4560734418974\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3812.4560704069827\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3812.456070406981\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3812.4560704069827\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B730>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12466.74218046838\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 75592.97762720358\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8241.917092670974\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5870.104866106601\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5396.667332365918\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5094.364430422686\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6076.379297364721\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5242.737013745642\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3837.9416256129643\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5062.697704479026\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3829.2808683559624\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3818.3297491845697\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5112.5279198733115\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3816.7666599669237\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3816.0531268995032\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3815.9506777413053\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3815.9318379800607\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3815.934080244568\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3815.928979905935\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3815.9289496999563\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3815.9289491015697\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3815.9289491015697\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29A50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12456.40246871302\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 75774.54237819885\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8191.5066392454355\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5865.582448581863\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5402.469336267071\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5095.1667999524125\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6013.158839907541\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5246.640632998879\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3840.8860352990605\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5072.628158139343\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3831.9781127197625\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3820.716206375828\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5128.579223258744\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3819.2541737994106\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3818.413607026496\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3818.3514698967683\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3818.333970517496\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3818.3359442672995\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3818.3309348874486\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3818.3308868133863\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3818.330886032184\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3818.330886032184\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928D30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12465.860678270972\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 75435.07644576812\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8109.544253906006\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5794.056506161811\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5402.5534044779915\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5099.016692714182\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6127.666662260354\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5250.311826019331\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3841.677955013178\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5065.222234776194\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3833.445437513796\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3822.1825484022665\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5116.621318118497\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3820.504287057413\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3819.9347753567695\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3819.813981690026\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3819.7971901896653\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3819.798261724456\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3819.7912981012646\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3819.791243118141\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3819.791242473182\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3819.791242473182\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392BBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12454.946226975813\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 12361.819638633164\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8140.310260408623\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5847.637665936124\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5408.046510576336\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5102.27349692648\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6099.213341022099\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5252.278146856053\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3845.2578816257496\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5073.531927415149\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3836.568958380013\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3825.379803304336\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5133.833302536927\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3823.5171165923275\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3823.0276749168925\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3822.9579064264262\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3822.9419762376046\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3822.9418002250513\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3822.93677086865\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3822.936642142614\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3822.936640830085\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3822.936640830084\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3822.936640830085\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B730>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12454.478637629012\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 76053.07257127351\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8139.281327771991\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5921.154283419584\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5411.222062452061\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5104.263305212328\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6036.262517880072\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5254.850702904234\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3847.1882795593574\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5079.571948316297\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3838.46317851409\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3827.2465227317093\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5138.353194299858\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3825.4883448696423\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3824.9135035698846\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3824.8506646703527\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3824.83438985985\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3824.835068464074\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3824.830565702324\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3824.830464036597\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3824.830462918494\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3824.830462918494\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3824.830462918494\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29AB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12466.926541863606\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 75673.9236103826\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8129.95393690421\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5875.054455707168\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5411.353446045108\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5108.092448290822\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6124.132157348613\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5257.088612148009\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3848.1873947159365\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5073.8735196699645\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3839.8963894521276\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3828.697288835154\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5130.520631162135\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3826.9316399117556\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3826.392053111547\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3826.2997059300096\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3826.2824146920366\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3826.2833367089106\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3826.277590096266\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3826.2775221813245\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3826.277521344352\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3826.277521344352\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29030>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12465.089710779212\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 75383.01449513604\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8131.209707433423\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5851.669651627942\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5412.979632568056\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5111.97674814827\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6208.812901992756\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5260.671013773469\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3849.3117585108903\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5069.709939037394\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3841.436979318391\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3830.2522361076326\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5120.991858433729\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3828.3850068347424\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3827.973145147097\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3827.8385874799196\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3827.8212984116535\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3827.820156805412\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3827.8129320892604\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3827.8128378386828\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3827.812837317708\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3827.812837317708\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDEA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12475.715672498434\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 75118.83843588424\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8159.3274470376\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5827.274043841606\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5415.345699500258\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5116.018326483632\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6274.091541967994\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5264.035417091482\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3850.6177459932032\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5068.300676896138\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3843.037868199061\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3831.7589264798107\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5115.895684254502\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3829.8348797674903\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3829.5155341242753\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3829.637140829999\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3829.37132274086\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3829.3518580705177\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3829.3497416815217\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3829.3497221429816\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3829.3497210002984\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3829.349721000297\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3829.3497210002984\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC6A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12478.810205113266\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74904.09256208368\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8171.711684768575\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5807.869836752734\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5417.516144474748\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5120.113700119029\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6361.747025427461\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5267.58284577439\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3851.842133057778\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5065.465287504139\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3844.5848727917232\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3833.2566032992004\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5101.473264091351\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3831.2221749392615\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3831.0459844985835\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3831.0559681255604\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3830.887992619071\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3830.862500276963\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3830.8607034524775\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3830.86068588642\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3830.8606841331575\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3830.8606841331575\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3830.8606841331575\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CE80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12483.132538926295\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74683.74963758477\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8124.015303021648\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5837.829748187665\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5423.37261183861\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5114.703544300112\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6115.10355867237\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5271.39325406737\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3858.1215502486257\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5095.3406294102515\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3849.209237934112\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3838.8799494747423\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5126.18938149305\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3837.2157339516325\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3836.878940194497\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3837.1068327835483\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3836.7118360595273\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3836.7211129036045\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3836.706871840834\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3836.706820140134\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3836.706819580929\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3836.706819580929\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A620>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12518.05506501869\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74865.49082481497\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8314.403346372099\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5905.635961080163\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5427.199490450435\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5122.445990256566\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6132.4182315862745\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5272.998312701867\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3860.287292133057\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5094.35487802094\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3851.384669362629\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3841.1710772489196\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5129.188409678334\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3839.374247855102\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3839.102082710655\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3839.293308516255\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3838.9560522046295\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3838.96218571052\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3838.9527177746822\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3838.9526349848843\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3838.9526341036\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3838.9526341036\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12528.706209826814\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74642.44520196252\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8242.667226304266\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5854.0396299433\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5429.606123135809\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5127.593134024912\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6249.143261747222\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5278.295084213196\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3861.441897692447\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5091.941263493944\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3853.187895989492\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3842.777432211411\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5123.671599900468\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3840.9377150483574\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3840.8266621133944\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3840.840059320874\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3840.6470801106893\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3840.6465690812875\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3840.6460832926477\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3840.6457509080046\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3840.645689243038\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3840.6456877486826\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 3840.6456877486826\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3840.6456877486826\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12525.142534164206\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74788.05296685896\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8190.937487270041\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5871.087203814424\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5434.513212933058\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5130.394935465218\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6238.399751891939\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5282.5658897104095\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3864.004764119631\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5096.799364387558\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3855.6839177427833\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3845.198579510994\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5133.050913201296\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3843.390636951006\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3843.2171935267015\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3843.2662694383375\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3843.0269782494524\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3843.030144843107\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3843.024860982187\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3843.0247087093476\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3843.024707816611\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3843.024707816611\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12531.126922397943\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74479.82679883929\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8173.6786900093475\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5853.847552666304\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5435.573119506127\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5136.04059105028\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6376.678700695098\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5286.141969898699\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3865.031789941931\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5092.937471211213\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3857.365063647638\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3846.7063263770306\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5128.2496143762555\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3844.892239105412\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3844.862234969015\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3844.716731843994\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3844.6384385438464\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3844.638190447056\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3844.63822838158\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3844.6381615368227\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 3844.6381608465595\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3844.6381608465595\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928D30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12541.583561490577\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74147.90449048863\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8166.280251467926\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5850.650417565929\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5435.741680896149\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5139.446307581569\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6553.102421641346\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5290.049726075228\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3866.2657205284113\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5087.250595712687\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3859.100578951413\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3848.2859769458964\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5098.053503056579\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3846.3344978304704\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3846.4226704091184\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3846.2676230782695\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3846.2506908752684\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3846.2499974316925\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3846.249770667203\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3846.249770667204\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3846.249770667203\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B340>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12559.349559784856\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74752.96290845118\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8167.034961627117\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5876.687899621386\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5442.141603183484\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5141.715101355858\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6396.501260772532\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5292.963342157744\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3870.0581680370938\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5094.923968568352\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3862.331588343046\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3851.5551123270225\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5115.116900692832\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3849.4869843062534\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3849.549189508241\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3849.3956235653523\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3849.35614459471\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3849.3562125475755\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3849.3560052161884\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3849.3559998983665\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3849.3559998983683\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3849.3559998983665\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD720>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12606.489025778319\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74944.67784967083\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8203.66769319132\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5874.9396362412845\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5445.474149640333\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5146.529443232789\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6403.363851877337\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5295.500765808791\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3872.1474380234004\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5096.2691552561455\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3864.466498265266\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3853.72927711274\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5117.690086244444\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3851.6191948086075\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3851.687836277807\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3851.536176495235\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3851.50109643186\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3851.5011664406793\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3851.5009334565643\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3851.5009290690596\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3851.5009290690605\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3851.5009290690596\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12611.387093877369\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74737.13896003827\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8178.846735114917\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5874.828710457616\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5448.087940517486\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5150.900956648351\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6513.203479473845\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5299.883043893416\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3873.4956433068155\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5095.397411411632\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3866.1752933144203\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3855.352908207637\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5110.862257759578\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3853.2709352991646\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3853.368998498292\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3853.2066234132653\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3853.188472437443\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3853.1884998783135\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3853.188411481701\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3853.1884082807283\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3853.1884082807296\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3853.1884082807283\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392BBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12629.093371837023\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74602.9530332977\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8181.934397581657\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5865.418607668143\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5450.79458972165\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5155.141006913553\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6597.082156572418\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5303.500408339058\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3875.162416201225\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5094.070608786482\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3868.0353826253877\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3857.155895919565\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5099.4424709905\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3855.022017476048\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3855.1034227678792\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3854.98306547238\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3854.974017945551\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3854.973958287777\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3854.973823721538\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3854.9738194694205\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3854.9738194694046\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3854.9738194694205\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29540>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12623.02968604489\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74323.32854883958\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8174.357647520151\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5851.766041532708\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5451.926628990897\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5158.180982498836\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6715.04954906547\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5306.280121467936\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3876.393765737258\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5093.41234440643\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3869.5006251825967\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3858.6174605526976\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5090.806982007317\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3856.5554965435167\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3856.6098339810906\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3856.5284418995225\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3856.522859315995\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3856.521521220341\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3856.5214992639517\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3856.5214992639503\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3856.5214992639517\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C283D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12642.112292542804\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74235.91130841174\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8184.364741414274\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5862.766195872054\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5454.731654313238\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5160.924810403048\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6733.847493007298\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5309.061503518193\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3878.1579962899646\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5094.760576492305\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3871.2992273201703\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3860.4256257245593\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5087.241174921546\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3858.326096966815\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3858.366020358938\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3858.3045844944254\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3858.299705729104\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3858.298603529749\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3858.298588328368\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3858.2985883283673\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3858.298588328368\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AB00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12631.996963624635\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74567.80206839908\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8193.23575219466\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5886.199537540015\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5459.711680428609\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5163.43669643308\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6610.026984783136\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5312.000215342311\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3880.874707335332\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5100.499717811397\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3873.8356016836365\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3862.9661062792566\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5104.49779631992\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3860.7619016304\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3860.8465436972297\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3860.723850600401\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3860.7150930303224\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3860.7151768814356\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3860.7150364737727\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3860.715034802899\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3860.7150348029036\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3860.715034802899\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B250>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12694.01492515619\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74793.79777800277\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8214.346474263719\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5908.947866417078\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5463.165515113555\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5167.909612069499\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6640.020604708913\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5315.30324181938\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3882.8433611604905\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5101.597620733663\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3875.905464552638\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3865.0047334188134\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5104.071822869664\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3862.772786750523\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3862.854987712786\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3862.7393310566786\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3862.7322251843348\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3862.7322655467206\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3862.732187206385\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3862.7321854328\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3862.7321854328034\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3862.7321854328\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A8F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12668.422886106468\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74516.9702631617\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8308.358005082882\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5901.25615381564\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5465.288603572034\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5171.798211118036\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6723.758206953465\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5317.821618158916\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3884.158008384975\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5100.769495379631\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3877.3228260043156\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3866.4759528896548\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5097.839622725503\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3864.296872945649\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3864.35769120469\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3864.272125379989\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3864.2672074147417\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3864.2676915561374\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3864.267024245603\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3864.2670242456065\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3864.267024245603\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39299C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12658.851064410632\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74232.71766922485\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8221.134700261071\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5868.19983318312\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5467.182833194838\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5173.6643225829675\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6827.865811396758\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5321.460043935876\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3885.6660715853122\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5100.235009870629\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3878.9660686750003\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3867.9777681451515\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5084.933128003413\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3865.808790196136\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3865.8401840864326\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3865.7934229392745\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3865.7898005090283\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3865.7891679790173\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3865.7891573030806\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3865.7891573030797\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3865.7891573030806\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12657.815547126009\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74496.0887727101\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8225.6670917735\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5866.119551302903\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5472.161393085757\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5176.767491334754\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6773.945056208744\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5325.261818323667\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3888.2037697167425\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5103.953239009459\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3881.4497842884275\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3870.41328716127\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5095.895434174727\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3868.1300874072663\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3868.1938442330993\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3868.106537098195\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3868.1019875735965\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3868.101976040337\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3868.1019763813674\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3868.1019752803536\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B250>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12686.74494078761\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74163.05017551527\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8228.563580160617\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5865.4122868680715\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5472.878024762969\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5180.836203541575\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6938.512808868625\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5327.347620122848\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3889.5549187772567\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5099.836640060134\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3883.005175739789\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3871.788863084515\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5079.86600416029\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3869.5780191548088\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3869.6015676701313\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3869.566583402524\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3869.5634431855697\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3869.562944197517\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3869.5629356335257\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3869.562935633524\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3869.5629356335257\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39299C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12738.245080663555\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 74886.11336236756\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8232.02853673289\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5888.049858264481\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5477.8992000647\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5182.4915125660045\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6750.3619511321895\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5330.757079941636\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3893.6666678531183\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5110.454558783961\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3886.849913183764\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3875.530868402886\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5104.894899619083\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3873.1635026995405\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3873.2089917537546\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3873.143155419916\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3873.1365862459556\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3873.136582701733\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3873.1365731287096\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3873.13657131104\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3873.1365713110404\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3873.13657131104\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE470>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12733.892553087897\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9460.343765087264\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 59232.39179482289\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5909.375487935746\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5487.242166154778\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5206.373526555488\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6245.696007146092\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5347.043970100782\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3898.8135775419055\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5154.613726222371\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3892.0015994975483\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3881.31197161447\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5127.849496521036\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3879.221813501763\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3879.2655060116276\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3879.1753061784966\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3879.1271551531377\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3879.1234944988837\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3879.123434540612\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3879.123434540613\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3879.123434540612\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE3B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12743.068188155106\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9447.961928352426\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 59578.89619865658\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5903.3809466801895\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5489.211421073434\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5209.728666722633\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6460.601917705013\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5350.418771549434\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3901.89920459501\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5150.457430333625\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3894.275873322802\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3883.3722527361947\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5146.45051508132\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3881.4449163262207\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3881.485147464876\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3881.3485538852647\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3881.294192910806\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3881.290137581551\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3881.2899125721065\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3881.2899109436676\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3881.2899109436703\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3881.2899109436676\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD6F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12771.992086080372\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9473.580147533392\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 59013.37680258241\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5865.037130331837\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5494.257646704593\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5217.435101320609\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6348.50834472302\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5357.342484078998\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3905.0964828535134\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5158.453202175671\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3897.577043395164\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3886.7165970993888\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5148.872981044025\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3884.645150069818\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3884.7501493612617\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3884.576007540898\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3884.524163904626\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3884.52308524962\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3884.522640026714\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3884.5226400267134\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3884.522640026714\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29AB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12763.005537119298\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 73708.84845962112\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8229.72833661491\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5869.235946940545\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5492.886449700534\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5175.075629649169\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6366.235477894881\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5343.588402449767\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3907.624320282728\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5153.589216793441\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3899.1842393726724\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3888.7834832777335\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5156.318857797854\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3886.5771682712148\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3886.510508905708\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3886.5685451833288\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3886.417496120244\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3886.421454829321\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3886.415424660569\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3886.4154046748195\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3886.415404160043\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3886.415404160043\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BB80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12749.642264350972\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 73390.40210479478\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8281.318210848145\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5842.201512446474\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5493.438574164449\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5178.274272045898\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6564.708335898389\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5348.216418593414\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3908.7921830967152\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5150.636173455767\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3900.960306220111\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3890.3325181556684\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5150.927636397174\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3888.2118380516813\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3888.217856897861\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3888.1509602879614\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3888.102465854213\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3888.102593797911\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3888.1022953500997\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3888.102291076176\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3888.1022910761812\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3888.102291076176\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28790>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12764.793177800319\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 73425.99773843362\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8255.421364600501\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5855.059382105063\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5496.770508154408\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5182.2477295274375\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6599.694514858806\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5351.83935879053\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3910.8968247212033\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5151.891141870671\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3903.209705072367\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3892.5783229626586\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5147.715917453078\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3890.3834469963035\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3890.3951965296687\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3890.3369374764516\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3890.3018053852984\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3890.3019015315585\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3890.3016902566205\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3890.301687913834\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3890.301687913836\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3890.301687913834\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B3A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12732.014935697334\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 73111.02829298086\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8267.917642592161\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5840.049457352893\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5497.0402872099\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5185.964352896468\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6760.249190406333\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5353.932755770458\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3912.236575659906\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5150.331540288353\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3904.869085542782\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3894.140904098235\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5148.4068996667975\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3892.0551942272305\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3892.0849168159207\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3892.0042392141286\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3891.980207781434\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3891.979624389118\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3891.9793569440126\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3891.9793569440126\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3891.9793569440126\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B400>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12734.718323692836\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 72977.32660142824\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8280.32916199477\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5819.987034761787\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5499.720702297889\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5188.231640256077\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6907.09585192437\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5358.755327148775\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3914.0877888085247\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5150.497292264307\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3906.892966463294\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3896.1282210453005\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5135.524903172803\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3893.9728293511225\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3893.9897044141408\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3893.9410201542623\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3893.9278784339913\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3893.927380611396\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3893.9272510483556\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3893.9272510483556\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 216\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AC20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12732.005887654868\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 72666.08378465634\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8235.306874446316\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5821.056895876496\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5500.4017709370455\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5190.273806084337\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7064.647282518503\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5360.773340377232\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3915.560012732515\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5151.048840594962\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3908.4513981893515\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3897.7171210280135\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5138.155929569052\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3895.626268253125\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3895.647465071306\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3895.5905005364957\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3895.5781923257846\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3895.577749318958\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3895.5775902456235\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3895.5775902456235\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 216\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29120>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12741.955016116797\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 72352.29370994159\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8238.139152955864\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5806.567411622214\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5500.684034441712\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5190.414326975632\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7299.169747797512\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5362.839205317923\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3917.162741561979\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5149.2981558941065\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3910.033687741695\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3899.3573506647745\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5119.121922690134\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3897.213896967695\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3897.218890565717\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3897.1906079463934\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3897.1826040002948\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3897.182621982277\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3897.182512877608\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3897.1825095539452\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3897.1825095539457\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3897.1825095539452\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28A60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12748.401951289325\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 72341.52497875683\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8231.269470246618\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5817.992237719851\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5504.279216988031\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5192.931732788667\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7249.864884881906\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5366.013223356377\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3919.0559332522516\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5153.029704517173\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3911.9163345027187\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3901.311694648532\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5124.842713753526\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3899.133169216553\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3899.1346922331027\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3899.1099936283204\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3899.1004590862817\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3899.100507653427\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3899.1003954182206\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3899.100393063575\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3899.1003930635766\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3899.100393063575\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12761.406891041044\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 72261.4235394254\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8220.740018933573\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5828.4921830292515\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5507.164706507763\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5195.9554728149815\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7241.441377653224\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5367.870310813453\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3920.855809091948\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5154.642889183799\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3913.686258611508\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3903.1249165377767\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5121.100162734474\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3900.902028653355\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3900.895182352491\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3900.884075012083\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3900.8744489339083\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3900.874316681339\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3900.8742313891134\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3900.8742313891134\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 216\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B850>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12781.905953454292\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 71960.85386317514\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8212.192583082375\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5842.072674841305\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5508.576886498828\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5196.360258624921\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7272.33497294643\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5368.637433994261\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3922.3570581985095\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5157.110264643947\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3915.0304323653527\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3904.667994954726\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5125.689864422087\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3902.4538867957144\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3902.4386983661598\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3902.436734251718\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3902.4234540230223\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3902.4237482066537\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3902.422453314877\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3902.4223769610144\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3902.4223769610144\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3902.4223769610144\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C295D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12849.566303284844\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 72011.52655642503\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8215.592666825354\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5853.944826317533\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5511.706772733827\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5198.661087826798\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7176.071853020066\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5370.896773523671\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3924.2486230646214\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5160.803262872114\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3916.903024174942\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3906.5759686722413\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5129.039578439326\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3904.324409685247\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3904.304811702762\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3904.3043963111886\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3904.292645643475\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3904.2929249699446\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3904.2921566851537\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3904.2920997685264\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3904.2920997685264\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3904.2920997685264\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929B10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12866.491942928275\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 71709.59288859199\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8223.12398206822\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5855.759454857279\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5512.67108967387\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5199.338560678926\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7155.533995290103\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5370.657892366484\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3925.7123745180324\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5162.6819395496905\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3918.1996640415\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3908.0429796744666\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5133.240887206575\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3905.822627932246\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3905.796240765061\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3905.7964796066335\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3905.786238859134\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3905.786091882598\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3905.7861231805637\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3905.785992370782\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3905.7859915015447\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3905.7859915015447\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B790>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12857.371696978622\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 71450.73639059646\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8208.326962205498\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5860.469844548263\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5515.065247925248\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5199.477774472904\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7262.045365973303\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5373.376144771603\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3927.378906539444\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5165.845461072065\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3919.7616446244438\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3909.556669209272\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5135.980059216387\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3907.3602935627137\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3907.3312360393243\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3907.333021887861\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3907.319569152469\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3907.3195004205395\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3907.319450029144\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3907.319368518726\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3907.3193665719946\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3907.3193665720037\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3907.3193665719946\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7E20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12854.80470588078\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 71621.02297932873\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8220.097872483497\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 5875.965954360527\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5518.945389208157\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5202.456511484604\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7087.430794748132\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5375.96084631503\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3929.4306321166396\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5170.644844058552\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3921.8005405409695\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3911.60870366984\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5143.935024125202\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3909.3692854947994\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3909.340035922063\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3909.3463755360044\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3909.3220420099146\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3909.3227887378243\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3909.321515006674\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3909.3214995516264\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3909.321499551627\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3909.3214995516264\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5600>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12756.149540299619\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 9648.372948005788\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50686.02118353853\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7642.600784452148\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5517.49424344434\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5237.460978915575\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 19091.102469859237\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5393.891268814311\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3932.260181492177\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5133.642161299205\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3929.6476690236186\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3918.9044694928475\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5043.729321453052\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3916.9179678722467\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3916.8740578808242\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3916.853221296191\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 3916.8436990676673\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 3916.837528320438\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 3916.836869174658\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3916.836829607711\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 3916.8368296076787\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3916.836829607711\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B0D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12793.786664049743\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62552.51884842909\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8279.417007446258\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6088.835991948661\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5519.766793155521\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5183.048753224044\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22037.758271019844\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5373.194491374885\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3938.719658938153\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5157.885212614294\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3931.3557954362022\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3921.0308229008797\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5138.011076935925\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3919.1515452681056\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3919.1064077476794\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 3919.1204573557316\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3919.081232254316\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3919.081192396155\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3919.0812036235884\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3919.081182440411\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3919.0811824404095\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3919.081182440411\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883C70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12808.263862981754\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62206.25067665894\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8071.8031072305985\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7654.03238403395\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5520.748496484115\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5184.6953823575695\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22024.579392278683\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5375.736318620729\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3939.160101064088\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5154.210810315195\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3933.081137103947\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3922.6843251048813\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5114.126000251803\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3920.887854000154\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3920.899573586137\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3920.839813559682\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3920.829189838555\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3920.8286257216887\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 3920.8285571498104\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3920.8285571498027\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3920.8285571498104\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D900>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12826.37274596939\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61930.24365088968\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8086.296649179268\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7649.048582562298\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5519.620267180956\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5187.756152326733\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22383.527875641856\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5375.3306948346935\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3941.6869631006466\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5152.351443013722\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3935.3089030070782\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3924.5816287647776\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5118.102577072397\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3922.7757021209763\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3922.7748648678757\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3922.744286222441\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3922.7338133277076\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 3922.733823720946\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3922.73375426207\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3922.7337506755657\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3922.7337506755657\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3922.7337506755657\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5480>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12861.651700974773\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61632.49828713604\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8076.66348553402\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7645.4257504122415\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5521.157974479629\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5191.387312377974\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22525.710989688687\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5375.370918845685\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3943.1519499336323\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5157.061071992717\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3936.883794011407\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3926.1920981227613\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5141.149599526316\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3924.548974744841\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3924.5706095424857\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3924.4913366872506\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3924.481036544964\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3924.4773100539646\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3924.4772756096518\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 3924.4772752456356\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3924.4772752456356\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929DB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12877.330639562451\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61746.22073308957\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8083.134793482173\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7658.656742927569\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5524.845073061864\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5195.265456134189\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22577.15242067057\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5378.764677126918\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3945.438468893235\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5159.114429716601\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3939.3301038696345\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3928.5387203055693\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5141.133664824896\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3926.8536774253157\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3926.884040978246\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3926.8038829818656\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3926.7956241455477\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3926.798258326486\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3926.793676763966\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3926.793672618126\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3926.7936726181306\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3926.793672618126\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A920>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12870.134215855558\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61595.948625039404\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8070.074471976392\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7662.163673029647\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5528.394726619229\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5199.619180376942\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22644.77382016398\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5380.8586245138285\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3947.2646557707267\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5163.52090846616\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3941.2810918403284\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3930.440241272564\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5155.278846583407\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3928.799199038913\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3928.809049391759\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3928.7486254420764\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3928.7398606793186\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3928.7403891860276\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3928.739707563026\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3928.73970699654\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3928.73970699654\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929330>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12854.829345195709\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61275.94442496094\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8068.253574742193\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7659.597109021822\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5528.69738283988\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5201.93942188248\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22764.84777775214\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5380.23075721104\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3948.967642402862\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5160.363884345605\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3943.192947598964\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3932.2125542914464\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5136.495463332393\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3930.5373001918383\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3930.5719300593387\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3930.4915168943444\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3930.486631799813\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3930.4879173720574\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3930.486159057821\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3930.4861585052604\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3930.4861585052604\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE9E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12909.703411842816\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61582.52699027954\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8080.340682622573\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7665.015260093249\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5534.169212159918\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5206.86211328466\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22779.701495151603\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5386.321395885731\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3951.7104551057987\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5161.484037867989\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3946.0506231117024\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3934.817736455305\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5133.823571544292\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3933.0518476540274\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3933.0929967220795\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3933.016233128895\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3933.0122562649844\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3933.0122420033094\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3933.012241916408\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3933.012241464618\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CEBC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12889.400277227789\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61275.64503179196\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8075.700873733789\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7664.737625521953\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5535.608132666512\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5209.330989439915\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22864.42169085463\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5385.757309204788\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3953.451258323386\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5159.415864079952\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3947.9753671146973\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3936.5889037464594\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5118.021489460265\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3934.795395080279\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3934.845247089923\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3934.7646256355943\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3934.761927156909\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3934.762008363083\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3934.7618891852862\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3934.7618891852853\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3934.7618891852862\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28580>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12875.435669879053\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61631.83623468397\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8088.3008117213885\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7684.973860234742\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5539.966803841693\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5213.620029385596\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22877.99529829577\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5390.882813530809\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3955.9270554625423\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5161.738317087333\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3950.5727827395676\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3938.9959308513285\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5120.34052991842\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3937.15796156346\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3937.215470025745\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3937.129297369409\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3937.1267913746133\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3937.126850790012\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3937.1267637390474\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3937.126763739045\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3937.1267637390474\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B7F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12896.203856446307\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61393.54568711856\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8107.283471924086\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7674.110601984587\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5541.568446729123\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5216.018886573717\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22953.851552198525\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5390.8700373408265\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3957.680554400781\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5160.668743999014\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3952.474362693173\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3940.7470136998454\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5109.218029850969\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3938.8914744759113\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3938.9522644849076\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3938.864737659904\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3938.8628382568054\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3938.8629200724777\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3938.862795878037\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3938.8627958780335\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3938.862795878037\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28AF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12958.769124282537\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61314.51786784694\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8091.272790190658\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7700.1463004759125\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5545.487609510595\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5219.286122960857\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22948.21466376782\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5395.35524254729\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3959.58749110215\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5163.656675015722\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3954.296529745854\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3942.7018561131663\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5115.15470114235\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3940.815957108027\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3940.8771415559568\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3940.789492511573\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3940.7873042037104\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3940.787462378392\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3940.7872174157696\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3940.787217415764\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3940.7872174157696\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29090>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12905.119480202698\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62045.92945687103\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8103.474460405709\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7702.944132362485\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5550.188816291768\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5222.998354756776\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22874.870554574496\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5402.246480438319\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3962.3948761016673\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5172.0798429167635\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3957.1389326422914\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3945.6228609012696\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5130.168842953879\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3943.7323271557934\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3943.799491340889\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3943.706617742634\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3943.7045371029826\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3943.704685461006\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3943.704445281077\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3943.704445281076\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3943.704445281077\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AF20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12956.350442429031\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62029.556143337584\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8141.880185706716\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7689.626469618939\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5553.255905601451\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5227.158087292761\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22988.578831024526\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5403.47294774791\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3964.059465114958\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5174.336195427984\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3958.960934401426\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3947.4061031900646\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5136.847388057094\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3945.567179663628\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3945.639658823624\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3945.540920844333\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3945.5391404251495\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3945.5391684097017\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3945.539122561015\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3945.5391225610115\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3945.539122561015\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C295A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12961.880756747549\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62598.78205971554\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8189.044901676454\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7720.4146054376415\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5557.0156015317325\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5230.28772474353\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22872.933820501807\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5409.550379140061\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3966.7985899761156\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5180.224563787306\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3961.7252716020303\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3950.3045887096987\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5140.929477497354\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3948.389908145231\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3948.4590957751743\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3948.371023122467\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3948.369487077687\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3948.3693255748512\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3948.369093810395\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3948.3690930230005\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3948.3690930230005\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BC70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12968.662106697895\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62326.711281057134\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8240.768478998696\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7711.583169310976\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5559.149177189645\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5233.282359760162\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23046.76436982435\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5409.539539289841\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3968.2783357211483\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5181.658748456391\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3963.4307448602704\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3951.9634709348707\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5145.536902945926\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3950.1020956504967\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3950.180817271197\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3950.082615736819\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3950.0815049312637\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3950.0814937290334\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3950.081293450322\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3950.08129345033\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3950.081293450322\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C286D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12960.212512672784\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62017.95275321412\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8173.820718769695\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7717.615933962848\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5560.856018115694\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5235.510047076726\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23097.649575569038\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5411.289648778558\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3970.001695074107\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5182.640512278642\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3965.044073696059\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3953.5409856468495\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5148.868456070416\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3951.709491083369\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3951.792338751912\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3951.6859081655984\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3951.6845296317942\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3951.6845839730086\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3951.684492764393\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3951.684492764394\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3951.684492764393\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B700>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12998.104081189556\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62754.66165051919\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8164.535738180979\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7733.282099414795\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5566.661471681116\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5240.028709357102\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22999.480236198666\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5418.353651051715\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3973.7081676609637\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5191.341318626191\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3968.5904383596617\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3956.911336832438\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5163.610925143561\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3955.056485280581\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3955.1219046242854\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3955.0347377781272\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3955.032754276159\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3955.0328410054\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3955.032566182192\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3955.0325655429997\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3955.0325655429997\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28EB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13001.36923556479\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62579.1208925697\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8253.508821497913\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7709.961872001382\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5570.280481801092\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5244.282497321199\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23124.266708682855\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5419.193379118205\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3975.57470785616\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5192.626741715627\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3970.6873097096786\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3958.7742364212177\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5168.588707661325\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3956.9427217446146\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3957.021198412649\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3956.920972765178\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3956.919280149441\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3956.9193059096992\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3956.9190536568785\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3956.919052168236\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3956.919052168235\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3956.919052168236\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B1F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13024.16929914941\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62256.60835708314\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8144.892982807849\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7731.3774391604475\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5571.230408216201\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5247.405335358778\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23228.460234041006\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5419.5635918990265\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3976.9936861210085\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5193.421913224398\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3972.187316720971\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3960.282525629825\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5171.558065089883\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3958.53833071227\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3958.61955883932\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3958.508242188072\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3958.5060338036537\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3958.506255887377\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3958.5058148070257\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3958.505812380252\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3958.505812380243\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3958.505812380252\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5030>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13005.324766878233\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61915.876139672066\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8130.859650354363\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7732.025480988725\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5572.170729631091\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5249.737406947129\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23320.272142585905\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5419.6464087655895\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3978.6292834400465\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5194.515791268867\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3973.9610036663576\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3961.837949835838\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5175.970200935053\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3960.135072158959\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3960.2014895130947\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3960.1046638731686\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3960.1021562622723\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3960.102252446469\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3960.1013151829834\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3960.1013100199452\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3960.1013100199316\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3960.1013100199452\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4D90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13006.443434721627\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61655.33249220988\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8149.277210799486\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7730.534858274543\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5574.917432940787\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5252.512754472381\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23370.337056820714\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5421.659253119173\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3980.179064510769\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5195.985150857092\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3975.5053393045073\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3963.464844484968\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5177.8167094556375\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3961.790960953953\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3961.8600299282853\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3961.7553520672595\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3961.7528849349446\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3961.753082766143\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3961.7519095757016\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3961.751903486502\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3961.75190348649\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3961.751903486502\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28D00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13010.32136454272\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61576.67827837574\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8140.912238319587\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7742.160652367462\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5577.708398008699\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5255.751521535951\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23411.88506898444\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5423.617569586497\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3981.9759250283287\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5197.218362679154\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3977.3780012568714\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3965.2082103444377\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5178.88851417628\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3963.532332570061\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3963.603949783826\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3963.4981247384258\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3963.495844599799\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3963.495827311553\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3963.494740713551\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3963.494732940819\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3963.494732940806\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3963.494732940819\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C293F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13014.37489259681\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61224.303710361215\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8130.534706032311\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7745.773421405007\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5578.729621067664\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5257.3263194203055\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23448.266928184737\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5423.441119632914\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3983.3260549767792\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5198.021684428646\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3978.713699168232\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3966.6376549513907\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5181.539368040444\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3965.0233012687377\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3965.08656972083\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3964.979703775507\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3964.976971763861\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3964.978001642145\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3964.9764493360385\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3964.9764467209948\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3964.9764467209857\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3964.9764467209948\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE9E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 12996.34815139524\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 61731.8628095401\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8190.658882164232\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7744.151221492232\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5582.812041218488\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5261.272334469124\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23449.94595994587\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5429.099993981236\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3985.8646954365613\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5202.859720335819\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3981.4008756448648\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3969.337993718911\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5182.329493605621\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3967.654265443627\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3967.7425268052107\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3967.62034470467\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3967.618217838567\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3967.6181855490277\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3967.6172315061285\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3967.617223452158\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3967.6172234521446\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3967.617223452158\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D600>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13002.242356929619\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62433.63946186051\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8161.069656375381\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7751.68623465993\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5589.104429472795\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5261.259198991166\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23100.087558666277\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5440.776969968808\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3989.817083066713\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5212.0078909249105\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3984.693167299949\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3973.015394698604\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5183.65888240854\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3971.1347930740044\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3971.229020286032\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3971.109179053747\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3971.107265276948\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3971.1071816662093\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3971.1068599715163\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3971.1068579453804\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3971.10685794538\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3971.1068579453804\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD240>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13014.357770705072\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62344.72463779632\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8163.081712496094\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7751.544714588327\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5591.041287958948\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5266.322643272884\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23286.577487450733\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5440.561924993886\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3991.515864868495\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5213.593432763615\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3986.7542654758327\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3974.7242834048116\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5191.332953772892\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3972.9317423519396\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3973.0235529183487\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3972.903832594665\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3972.901680821016\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3972.901653273109\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3972.9016442438997\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 3972.901644243894\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3972.9016442438997\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A500>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13007.272292551097\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 63059.77794492703\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8174.873118011308\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7753.86328191597\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5595.586498954983\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5267.62399054287\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23103.603447181413\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5447.499642037867\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3994.838942699286\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5217.391638977453\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3989.697838624884\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3977.930264386979\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5190.745700031286\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3975.9555991107454\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3976.025700989205\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3975.9407602405004\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3975.9372814604476\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3975.936638820578\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3975.936638376861\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3975.936638376861\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 215\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A6B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13088.552188415759\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 63140.387363492904\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8259.8121185886\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7745.811397415268\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5598.57057832927\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5271.936307282417\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23208.25320876701\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5448.591891943072\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3996.753537883129\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5219.021307681703\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3991.9181993929797\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3979.8927924055815\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5193.668959887787\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3977.94433257292\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3978.026647302724\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3977.929516476835\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3977.9267202686515\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3977.92631157875\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3977.9261556670267\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3977.926154632361\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 3977.9261546323537\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3977.926154632361\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13054.676785381089\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62933.714801146976\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8292.01643382365\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7738.315847572547\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5601.606914842279\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5276.141911856707\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23347.506037076622\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5449.350221027196\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 3998.289200672752\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5221.493833653509\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3993.6737201316464\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3981.4857260105828\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5200.396357818981\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3979.6215825167837\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3979.724365567846\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3979.6016263131833\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3979.5999175655234\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3979.5996981895128\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3979.599479398189\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3979.5994761938086\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3979.599474955402\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3979.599474955401\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3979.599474955402\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E410>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13098.680424456661\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62902.14271611841\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8312.037757141814\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7742.947301422573\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5604.049194851378\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5279.647074234374\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23433.182445848623\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5450.800836083863\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4000.099614169528\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5223.127031745002\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3995.6910405927592\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3983.3131614564863\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5201.272632022952\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3981.459317058641\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3981.569394674601\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3981.4393690341203\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3981.4378866999396\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3981.4377712746746\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3981.437562456533\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3981.4375592972406\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3981.4375579707284\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3981.4375579707284\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3981.4375579707284\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F8E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13088.752493102107\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62937.134673223656\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8339.381865876969\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7746.028921594923\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5608.168769080123\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5283.804453449744\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23481.15284113276\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5453.715708250306\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4002.0731082526386\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5224.823416202913\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 3997.8048597738684\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3985.298310625074\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5203.357389025762\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3983.4271953682846\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3983.5568033406576\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3983.4084500531517\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3983.4068899874546\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3983.406579550281\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3983.406407426479\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3983.40640317596\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3983.406401846219\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3983.4064018462177\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3983.406401846219\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B100>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13104.455626830404\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 63360.48610319324\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8422.18645708443\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7089.4706825531775\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5613.1876077461275\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5286.718779586041\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23399.201299548004\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5460.292597287917\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4004.6675612127638\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5228.440948303083\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4000.274064602394\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3988.0218597972516\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5202.8849271476065\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3986.0386063620144\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3986.2093282593005\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3986.024021168823\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3986.020083182495\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3986.019548494339\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3986.019548494335\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3986.019548494339\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A770>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13096.970639254501\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 63103.16609990485\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8357.935268493275\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7732.606880008972\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5616.594547066496\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5290.909267920153\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23505.135991944295\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5461.618976103306\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4006.29476865948\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5229.79310423298\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4002.1675152987755\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3989.707249115214\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5206.0901077224335\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3987.7657189033603\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3987.990333518819\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3987.749253653462\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 3987.7450088724713\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 3987.7444107219662\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 3987.7444100283456\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3987.7444100283456\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 215\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28EE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13098.800700159003\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62752.11332525296\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8271.335256188366\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7772.561706765296\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5617.229102768529\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5293.906024136713\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23622.124085285617\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5460.506044042606\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4007.847283242238\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5230.0700518473295\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4003.8521706271076\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3991.124325202265\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5208.192189822908\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 3989.250097418364\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 3989.4343315757897\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3989.2309455201575\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3989.2288810217224\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3989.2284412861545\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3989.228280124178\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3989.2282748714106\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3989.228273136804\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3989.2282731368005\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3989.228273136804\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BF10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13052.17581806076\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57912.28875988614\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8146.560087744388\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7800.242443206787\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5623.280714276362\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5282.759504989239\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22529.920883125364\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5467.224133231375\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4013.818646285078\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5220.775144354349\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4009.898133061143\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 3998.4434330908744\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5140.033105326828\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 3996.6891093671275\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3996.5993393167273\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3996.581193111507\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3996.5805605514033\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3996.580317056468\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 3996.579370777883\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 3996.5792637638588\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 3996.5792626431885\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 3996.5792626431717\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3996.5792626431885\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BA00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13077.11564049252\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57644.24446870751\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8545.222494661532\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7752.368089416121\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5624.824066143579\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5290.8311470026565\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23045.12830626607\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5460.33424755823\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4016.2228863621704\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5221.572239600942\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4012.6011369103926\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4000.4908739387292\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5166.294477359015\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 3998.8574244038946\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 3998.7880669211486\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 3998.7793176347877\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 3998.7689933879724\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 3998.7601809434327\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 3998.7597006607098\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 3998.759681724577\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 3998.759680232628\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 3998.759680232626\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 3998.759680232628\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AA40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13083.232973171624\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57852.3895345278\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8378.805481788586\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7767.194394010488\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5631.677738775977\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5295.889279542632\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23045.411596539267\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5468.491952162582\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4020.943836477448\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5223.886292152723\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4015.888243558051\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4003.6145729053706\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5207.835878642593\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4001.8071277515523\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4001.7927336504163\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4001.7617564060392\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4001.745759584929\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4001.743826632538\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4001.74381832295\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4001.7438183229483\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4001.74381832295\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29480>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13099.749968650596\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57530.71345883522\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8385.33984568783\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7759.72262408727\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5631.1536840256695\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5301.094052698354\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23449.235949371214\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5463.160155900742\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4023.6105787867855\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5225.649473539956\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4018.3693589585346\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4005.5161804669888\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5231.77278909547\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4003.759272911767\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4003.7571264975695\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4003.7338349426063\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4003.7209182747456\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4003.719427275705\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4003.719427275717\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4003.719427275705\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2ACE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13116.664157304029\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57447.85041215179\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8369.71593609705\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7776.3130095092665\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5635.5148838980695\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5306.745664225957\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23545.580511941385\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5464.460364950101\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4025.8226614115815\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5230.024103254835\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4020.6640809593896\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4007.618481139355\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5246.187383098782\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4005.8989578317596\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4005.8946330392564\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4005.8674596979545\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4005.855623507641\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4005.853596277352\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4005.853595860219\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4005.853595860219\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 215\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13115.259575543363\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57136.54595213902\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8373.92140948086\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7784.387537206398\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5635.466002159173\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5311.123041663166\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23785.570256828563\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5458.016165780944\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4027.6710932756355\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5226.179474341556\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4023.038199931515\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4009.4781874305154\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5245.532366550743\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4007.7880671940593\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4007.7898591808043\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4007.76409656902\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4007.738318532581\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    206,   Neg. LLF: 4007.737149615251\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 4007.7371461370412\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4007.7371461370412\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4007.7371461370412\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C291B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13129.252502497851\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57043.52118608247\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8357.380331638156\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7794.430293280705\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5639.777620326024\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5316.224347741487\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23839.115135272656\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5459.55421360243\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4029.7508678104405\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5230.830381328743\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4025.1703120846423\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4011.5239212610018\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5259.32173409365\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4009.862924581701\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4009.841008940829\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4009.8359108436016\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4009.810654829749\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4009.7962935970486\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4009.7962150355906\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4009.7962142117403\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4009.7962142117403\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A76D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13128.721929541165\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57311.10327857022\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8393.386156731947\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7782.9885482240525\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5644.429657864302\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5319.729274856719\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23832.853645180014\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5465.643852752148\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4032.235961809826\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5234.237979694533\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4027.7377027449893\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4014.063189122831\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5257.985372659375\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4012.3433510849345\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4012.3295074411076\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4012.297650961537\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4012.296520311664\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4012.292518932926\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4012.2925189329317\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4012.292518932926\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B5B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13138.706061140645\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57047.32930420061\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 8618.519691222089\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7792.638414503894\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5646.2249459871755\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5325.9382668518165\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 23627.384499902182\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5469.075889931758\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4033.6892196079316\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5243.33290406304\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4029.239582220796\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4015.8295580258746\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5269.716853838749\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4014.211943335429\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4014.1445689179536\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4014.117947119572\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4014.132279274218\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4014.104554203648\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4014.104172198903\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4014.1041619262396\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4014.1041584995446\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4014.1041584995373\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4014.1041584995446\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39299C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13157.824009221538\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 56679.10340720334\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 17642.834700867832\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7796.5541469081745\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5646.196098317833\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5348.31820444602\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 21467.861692868195\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5511.283387244517\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4032.346628250951\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5233.026219024006\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4032.3114450996163\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4017.828788616227\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5156.517995078546\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4016.0297111131677\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4015.9917608225105\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4015.8608026908278\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4015.8220532552136\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4015.8195458619107\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4015.8194360630087\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4015.8194353701965\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4015.8194353701965\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AD70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13161.727687949497\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 56311.81338778991\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48101.91338896366\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7797.217705755755\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5646.027858046334\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5349.401971855095\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 21291.976779140772\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5512.154566231302\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4033.4696200208327\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5236.220712711436\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4033.4223348541855\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4019.4831575367916\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4428.423542187575\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4017.7582728561233\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4017.6683754013075\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4017.5940048142947\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4017.484506474917\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4017.4777135983504\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4017.47219736889\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4017.472035435104\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4017.472021317246\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4017.4720213172304\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4017.472021317246\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387EA70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13184.276618318523\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 56055.40162105695\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 47888.011261353815\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7808.037322851384\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5648.207932422891\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5351.696311124684\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 21153.605461556\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5514.648492504338\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4035.416774176757\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5232.060121689188\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4035.2753559499515\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4021.3163956467024\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4257.488456357282\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4019.665442684994\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4019.405557678878\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4019.3555738633804\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4019.2340722929644\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4019.2321977282636\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4019.232129293523\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4019.2321252488696\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4019.23212282193\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4019.23212282192\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4019.23212282193\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13184.156001748954\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 56462.571140949076\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48135.90805891436\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7829.2202174418035\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5653.182938982055\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5356.480330932207\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 21257.482619388575\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5520.409567762752\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4038.328606064096\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5237.452468755235\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4037.6588609190803\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4023.6625600791212\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4523.164481348966\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4021.9627773987263\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4021.7543278403405\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4021.7094125448066\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4021.5538490745867\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4021.551419411574\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4021.551336831197\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4021.551326763524\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4021.5513217620573\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4021.5513217620364\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4021.5513217620573\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF2B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13184.108889217183\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 56439.866539218216\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48470.38409196056\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7808.911301718132\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5656.550588099692\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5356.65073059587\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 21375.89082347447\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5521.739217242877\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4040.791300956321\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5238.820600892729\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4039.421691843336\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4025.6386999311635\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5157.925197559317\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4023.9882743137396\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4023.7122232676948\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4023.6856515879426\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4023.491123471499\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4023.4886739114395\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4023.4885610949623\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4023.4885555537903\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4023.4885512735173\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4023.4885512735045\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4023.4885512735173\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E740>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13223.855237219987\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57004.50494049385\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48742.215117117856\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7818.712381744049\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5661.268109084106\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5361.485248333092\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 21628.745937598276\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5525.975206622966\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4044.2339252340157\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5247.97075301841\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4042.456483287463\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4028.2005488992863\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5180.324221845667\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4026.4446784855086\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4026.318423242695\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4026.2770915128376\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4026.0791588493794\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4026.0755266671304\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4026.0754276855314\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4026.075371162645\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4026.075365473159\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4026.075364815166\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4026.075364815166\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D600>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13236.75107051298\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 56674.231216422486\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48852.64753508826\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7811.67289850319\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5662.441447051904\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5359.208654031714\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 21992.139473489045\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5522.85118374174\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4046.1460815287273\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5248.4211428932995\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4044.2335906940143\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4029.793995025886\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5187.688644909034\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4028.051227481646\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4027.913871500862\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4027.883591771212\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4027.7032412078215\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4027.6994057627026\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4027.6992478017883\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4027.6990805143087\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4027.6990763931644\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4027.6990758723605\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4027.6990758723605\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A60E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13225.461138670937\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57342.707669821524\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49048.440057313535\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7833.484028675972\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5667.47406940059\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5369.132716506406\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 21917.33033283273\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5531.444811162055\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4050.7336750293716\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5261.281539894367\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4048.5821801308425\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4033.234054587413\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5220.030180866379\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4031.470033939422\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4031.3625783727516\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4031.3510202927873\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4031.1511543685338\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4031.1471015533625\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4031.1468698031053\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4031.1465875138115\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4031.1465832614067\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4031.1465826440735\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4031.1465826440735\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD900>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13228.863718930937\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57021.80928242793\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49342.992694700646\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7828.440530844711\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5669.7462117695795\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5368.492962600176\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22466.073025379694\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5526.0210806336\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4053.0977361392124\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5265.975724464071\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4050.6736497513853\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4034.8895053313\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5246.555763519144\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4033.112368671081\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4033.065076061292\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4032.9973150571823\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4032.9184482342484\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4032.9157951327998\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4032.9157365580713\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4032.915735851003\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4032.915735851003\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE6E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 13219.564487995322\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 56888.93403175863\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48925.87996804426\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7832.912441280545\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 5674.933666138423\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 5375.816435747325\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22201.9522444471\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5535.063190265619\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4055.167278776419\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5264.288422797897\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4052.7002998221133\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4036.9837781540655\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5240.071940138665\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4035.235788505276\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4035.1424225702995\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4035.139778666587\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4034.917208266753\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4034.9125545418037\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4034.9119798839783\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4034.911505121753\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4034.9114980839367\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4034.9114972804236\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4034.9114972804236\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCF10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 53407.26470576509\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 44795.296544792494\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 57434.4186130411\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8806.589050869045\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8783.792659907487\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6302.887246350227\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5678.71284539398\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5588.477782414844\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4216.755635620397\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4057.1151961641967\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5496.205435474891\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4054.575935388818\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4040.503673561645\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4041.187361572335\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4040.67936348779\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4040.0625259942826\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4039.9966129833833\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4039.9796877614012\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4039.9756402802777\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4039.975498197392\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4039.9754919055104\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4039.9754919055085\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4039.9754919055104\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC670>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51786.01228887329\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52699.679823245235\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 56745.78110873279\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9123.648916570965\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8758.4821863657\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6706.325312553852\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5676.484002190585\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5600.235937506361\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4164.168912854685\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4060.7568942533608\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4094.7163624175964\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4059.678342610983\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4042.597794765045\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4043.463026937223\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4043.426577916267\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4041.9969732083628\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4041.9278937498557\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4041.9014641483177\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4041.8930707835816\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4041.8920052819394\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4041.8919771790925\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4041.8919771790934\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4041.8919771790925\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29930>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74009.87015128911\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52102.24668012958\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 56844.94578415324\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8800.22341726087\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8772.252122806118\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6149.151613154936\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5677.457311863146\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5589.188796040305\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4688.832353086613\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4060.8229454354855\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4513.386338984874\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4058.4233834115453\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4043.9325427309122\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4043.779065263365\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4043.8299925998235\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4043.5942105784447\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4043.5393693563956\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4043.5261938077424\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4043.5232857059777\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4043.523099850644\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4043.5230980365495\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4043.5230980365477\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4043.5230980365495\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B280>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 53612.36544713144\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52115.1339690752\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 56905.91207534374\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8811.158195583932\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8800.42011463695\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6365.91313944548\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5690.046992720866\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5591.52395068735\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4279.782550550897\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4062.9914844166497\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5501.283430944283\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4060.0486668440403\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4046.218225123195\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4059.004607404352\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4046.033403657001\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4045.5784679025537\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4045.509666687425\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4045.497885234722\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4045.4934913876677\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4045.4928103333946\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4045.4927526397905\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4045.492747632757\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 4045.4927476327566\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4045.492747632757\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 253\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BA60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52294.0842020649\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 42994.8690139002\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 56612.3236927934\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8807.589846076995\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8813.699232859019\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6534.691853969963\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5686.443006394585\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5594.407707908754\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4209.898700924737\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4065.3700471065467\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5505.702506809076\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4061.9037331135596\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4048.6944001972574\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4060.957264470646\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4047.275136428053\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4047.1852438103288\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4047.1420111405414\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4047.139363909405\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4047.1386405998924\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4047.1384280384277\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4047.138422593668\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4047.138421761345\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4047.138421761345\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29F60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73535.4830666237\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 42068.49973178866\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 56571.75313962501\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8804.09162083485\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8781.922570387713\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6165.404465503585\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5690.418024776203\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5596.315379665768\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4979.337016526684\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4066.633375586051\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4464.568944251803\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4064.1551328233227\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4049.5684883094696\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4049.4172549907935\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4049.4930885481454\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4049.2365506704355\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4049.182961565434\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4049.1697947241782\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4049.1667974922434\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4049.166601917324\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4049.1665999667866\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4049.166599966784\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4049.1665999667866\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28670>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51303.11965144673\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 51514.75323095372\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 56199.79765545288\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8826.450719148837\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8830.942093025536\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6715.486606987128\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5684.988896799301\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5603.087498231222\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4168.1617670507585\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4069.9602026213443\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5512.565493231561\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4066.4806645073622\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4051.2310304119264\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4054.70040667107\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4051.669928153444\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4050.883816080499\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4050.8198444831696\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4050.809467949707\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4050.802219877519\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4050.802059194381\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4050.802049266023\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4050.802048583113\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4050.802048583113\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51676.00278094192\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 42518.206178721826\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 56037.23208099815\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8811.542047444596\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8831.596242104286\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6648.655647776173\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5689.465207692758\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5603.5815287560745\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4189.89219732127\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4071.318636857666\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5515.14048251008\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4067.433757046798\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4054.328566243763\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4066.760857973856\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4052.664593175636\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4052.5790212370466\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4052.533343672483\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4052.5300295617662\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4052.530011505016\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4052.529671148576\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4052.529663389946\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4052.5296633899497\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4052.529663389946\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABA30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73101.65052776913\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 51127.11151332955\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 56048.32521884094\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8802.490336774266\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8787.983786422556\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6170.515430639508\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5695.784431429601\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5604.7787933594955\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4899.985551291147\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4072.2448572491694\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4507.555800171451\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4069.8039000745393\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4055.172074069863\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4055.042165749767\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4055.147940630455\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4054.8389032610203\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4054.7854306316253\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4054.770163091048\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4054.766182600777\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4054.765899597166\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4054.765895769353\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4054.7658957693493\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4054.765895769353\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8550>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 53584.704578300625\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52050.14645939908\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55976.96982488928\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8832.917472273604\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8826.67988909802\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6468.778984099778\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5704.442478841982\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5609.882754827399\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4227.325008023305\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4075.83015354328\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5519.924266666011\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4072.8164611494713\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4058.5957167577526\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4071.736793158515\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4058.6580781084613\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4058.022538132631\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4057.9550915205577\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4057.9427372516357\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4057.937671028779\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4057.93713660468\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4057.9370915113013\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4057.9370881513128\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 4057.9370881513128\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4057.9370881513128\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 253\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8A30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50926.42784762203\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52302.61973245011\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 56447.1844860211\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8886.01693770049\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8856.446244472234\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7010.361524484696\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5693.364375383006\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5623.741784915607\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4142.947856578774\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4081.744395089937\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4079.283204600145\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4078.022189412968\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4062.105098049047\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4061.410345750607\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4060.3226699630054\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4060.1875750352647\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4060.162998652997\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4060.144338913272\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4060.1435486008177\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4060.143480930119\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4060.143476861578\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4060.1434768615973\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4060.143476861578\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAA40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74099.44521127413\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 42367.10068029612\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 56433.35266889857\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8856.518406672749\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8807.947408419683\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6212.719584017699\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5711.258859316809\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5617.670920125169\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4450.4694694226255\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4079.504935628606\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4385.5291550767\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4077.281633751946\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4062.535199552766\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4062.4015728132463\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4062.5212104657858\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4062.2229317980396\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4062.169862020905\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4062.155859794797\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4062.1525731394377\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4062.1523091588733\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4062.152306625102\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4062.152306625099\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4062.152306625102\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8C10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73966.91212594559\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 51873.889652990285\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 56328.82489996\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8856.149068771738\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8808.92412512987\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6205.463506785046\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5712.477244536527\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5621.129689391437\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4424.962183437237\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4081.3529565456265\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4432.009217779241\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4079.171920593918\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4064.453244937865\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4064.322397678663\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4064.4383921838953\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4064.136715652825\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4064.0848264318006\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4064.070398523029\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4064.0668814224546\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4064.0666101522806\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4064.0666070855523\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4064.066607085548\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4064.0666070855523\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A4D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71454.32714495326\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 39946.984753082776\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55482.300596010406\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8877.380562216755\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8801.772496187778\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6230.762826520235\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5717.9787634757395\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5626.681997347163\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4640.986560839865\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4088.8930991160773\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4638.143250822457\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4086.0212028498786\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4071.3194462403976\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4071.0733024717765\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4070.98192902557\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4071.002468840174\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4070.890057828305\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4070.876757397933\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4070.875889560169\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4070.875817934219\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4070.8758146901305\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4070.87581469013\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4070.8758146901305\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28D30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71192.97137050121\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49419.83498839262\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 54458.38826653735\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9694.218662086645\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8612.777532684211\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6326.382594355331\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5737.164814622214\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5632.057410497874\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 5092.62701765177\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4090.9479980005276\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4296.136801674614\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4088.4982953273015\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4073.4090578761793\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4073.866878217489\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4073.193683089014\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4073.0136411280987\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4072.974476434609\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4072.9190252472195\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4072.9098486501452\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4072.9068358075456\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4072.9067498133913\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4072.906744246436\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 4072.906743548126\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4072.906743548126\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 253\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50776.20190408967\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48746.975073532965\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 54860.47173673781\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8896.89010182306\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8727.340262193236\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 5957.622962636801\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5622.847094600429\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5622.808239113536\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5596.536545788159\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4098.4808148866905\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4099.499532871548\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4091.8070488358308\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4076.0083936801507\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4075.3212374878094\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4075.147390549265\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4075.240948008118\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4075.0183532351903\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4074.9957937030076\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4074.992431768119\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4074.9920560106084\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4074.992047889603\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4074.992047889581\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4074.992047889603\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A380>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52932.16324028616\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48603.59069973692\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 54710.36469836146\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8911.154556807374\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8730.588261240315\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 5955.916442718583\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5625.992179550756\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5625.565034267533\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5599.391087451925\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4101.061480642247\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4123.833657017555\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4094.2374478593147\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4078.122378575881\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4077.4327913559355\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4077.178897844527\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4077.1481591906495\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4077.0826051914682\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4077.0721270488675\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4077.0703788190895\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4077.0703414135255\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4077.0703408873687\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4077.0703408873687\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A920>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70862.14766987767\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49107.30263702548\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 54797.41169898832\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8946.80825078304\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8811.763623249935\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6278.75384012778\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5738.375423482044\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5636.2472607976215\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 5614.06210709322\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4097.744278872191\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4567.3201156057985\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4094.3747936070354\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4079.5317186777856\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4079.313951579815\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4079.4092945443945\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4079.176891326845\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4079.1263580603418\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4079.1170385007417\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4079.1153987661687\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4079.1153046405766\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4079.115303379177\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4079.115303379169\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4079.115303379177\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A97B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52086.957731099305\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 39212.44923397825\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 54517.252042212735\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8897.25373612953\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8737.301434499612\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 5965.715180647927\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5630.716438902924\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5629.821677190051\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5604.369828954537\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4106.700136043138\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4121.933199519832\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4098.067982562186\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4081.9219216299293\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4081.2713523060456\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4081.0512818642574\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4081.05324849951\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4080.9574072603646\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4080.942558100135\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4080.941179833957\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4080.9411162458405\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4080.941115280346\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4080.941115280346\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CA30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 58652.81463650103\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49529.67826141509\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55087.12286796626\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8953.56256485398\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8830.48626899637\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6322.191389460068\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5746.001915960184\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5643.181621555386\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4951.789945639751\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4103.198749618533\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5545.181427054882\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4088.81700747679\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4085.251323969491\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4084.751981101832\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4084.363248284518\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4084.3101818946143\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4084.2967957920746\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4084.295193043486\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4084.2949456416554\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4084.29493834208\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4084.2949376684705\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4084.2949376684705\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F2E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52677.32838532053\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 40281.90249966718\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 54780.95432306774\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9124.971828933012\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8853.394840945883\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7079.613453239177\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5729.585861994563\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5656.347520387604\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4213.735108088249\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4097.166255128677\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4104.832628754093\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4117.549696693168\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4087.5909513129805\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4087.350300649763\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4086.5570255484217\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4086.460000153393\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4086.4482995412277\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4086.445879375503\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4086.4455530329387\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4086.4455338315856\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4086.445532182728\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4086.445532182729\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4086.445532182728\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A76D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 53760.82402012207\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49784.51665656545\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55032.924775256106\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 8992.413860098826\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8868.947038817845\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6966.141412949394\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5736.052027489273\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5657.029400204063\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4206.021070278069\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4098.316227968601\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4108.238920546651\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4107.385816698856\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4093.3318511500484\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4089.672798453229\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4088.7812575083317\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4088.7064513322566\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4088.695848473747\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4088.6956216510152\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4088.695549876384\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4088.6955444593495\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4088.6955444593414\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4088.6955444593495\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE980>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50172.794239433206\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 43113.82801810368\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 54889.90394273341\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8949.62657303168\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8768.599110212164\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 5973.028563962045\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5646.983601157729\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5646.3093305987\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5620.094947002096\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4114.833315829628\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5533.609125136076\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4109.484577121867\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4091.7792989179316\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4090.8749302030174\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4090.6688324325614\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4090.61685364858\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4090.57799891424\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4090.5730735967027\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4090.5727202659764\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4090.5727130017535\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4090.572713001754\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4090.5727130017535\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF3D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52420.3303574287\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 43277.958397784954\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 54909.35118820909\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8931.293167562464\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8775.57968773325\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 5979.194513841612\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5651.928199885372\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5651.272157202701\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5624.968629983347\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4116.710368330576\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5538.3135552813255\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4112.082514987573\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4094.101070989148\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4093.2673701935887\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4093.0653186020104\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4093.013166831902\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4092.976981621013\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4092.9720288290587\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4092.9717081494464\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4092.971701541284\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4092.971701541281\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4092.971701541284\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCEB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71991.4494341942\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50060.94160192112\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55477.471218585866\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9048.395013892172\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8852.828409324995\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6315.545012353458\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5764.527676131101\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5663.9890752087595\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4523.9862592822865\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4114.846067132498\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5565.762172145418\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4100.135289187164\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4096.624801373933\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4096.47037044793\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4096.259750120998\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4096.038577149058\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4096.0113115479635\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4096.002785603552\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4095.9990698929514\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4095.9984625094503\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4095.9983835174926\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4095.998382799677\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4095.998382799677\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C285B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71683.41950260261\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 45677.14581342156\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55101.33770421916\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9088.775875172592\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8854.169208430121\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6337.858439057218\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5768.324746695945\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5665.080811750116\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4621.296118109265\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4116.630648960171\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5566.335584396058\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4102.610593479966\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4098.424231809292\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4098.663858931814\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4097.910387644153\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4097.792821382283\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4097.764515588264\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4097.759617564802\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4097.758932063595\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4097.758917965191\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4097.758904445205\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4097.758903405273\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4097.7589034052735\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4097.758903405273\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A830>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50890.0858931701\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40760.95482166512\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 55278.6001985015\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8928.70985956686\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8790.775025489362\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 5991.3575725606715\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5661.044827528973\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5660.014662998548\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5634.187191434709\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4122.933800062311\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5075.175916099817\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4118.424100922879\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4101.071364884844\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4100.0379366055195\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4099.850462497208\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4099.801179792039\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4099.765539186676\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4099.761486844364\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4099.761198722536\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4099.761194052651\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4099.761194052658\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4099.761194052651\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A110>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49254.779703391854\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40283.40686581996\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 54659.946027501035\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8934.198946933799\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8791.994831598844\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 5992.735346385189\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5664.986892657962\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5663.956235156456\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5638.186735596399\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4124.5907048281015\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5083.88652271054\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4120.415464386793\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4103.094565963626\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4102.03234909039\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4101.849780780645\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4101.800235116629\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4101.76555728464\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4101.761628929327\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4101.761358332676\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4101.76135400144\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4101.7613540014445\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4101.76135400144\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C293C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72114.10452758169\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50162.732149974676\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55737.81020732455\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9023.450554514551\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8873.379471838936\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6349.921191024667\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5781.712256431634\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5674.794860195012\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4463.733578825535\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4123.383451234117\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5578.425802016514\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4108.892702450502\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4105.689930996157\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4105.3294709577585\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4104.979966657287\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4104.952204835763\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4104.9296362642945\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4104.92593083984\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4104.925361768118\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4104.925352736065\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4104.925352033292\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4104.925352033292\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BF10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72405.90248996823\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 40623.111438623055\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55683.633147332985\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9149.421856679628\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8875.876598580451\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6384.34034140933\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5784.256845783944\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5680.493789089335\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4397.27056117852\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4125.901162407152\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5583.9973733128\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4111.723774100121\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4107.971020943481\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4108.13116931796\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4107.437730046167\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4107.332674144769\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4107.310508891275\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4107.306883867797\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4107.305066030171\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4107.304964642366\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4107.304955908298\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4107.304955908294\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4107.304955908298\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B2E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72033.41507766827\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 42012.15170101085\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55535.237029397336\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9097.195706861352\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8883.042056662713\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6385.302515801048\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5786.021859985747\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5680.498853619705\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4459.519951567276\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4127.792708919638\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5584.27049642374\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4113.951088084234\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4109.767074251989\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4109.9151390981815\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4109.056405998663\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4108.987833432953\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4108.983310931868\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4108.981831554929\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4108.98170315819\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4108.981698294272\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4108.981698294263\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4108.981698294272\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A96F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49555.26871901894\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 43028.753247943576\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 55443.21936194548\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8963.147183323577\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8813.523799987637\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6004.682685120455\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5677.344485953421\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5676.374057471516\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5650.729362806463\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4133.502966362725\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4886.372451100759\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4129.366043586754\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4112.160053890117\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4111.0624225197225\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4110.887431297311\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4110.838892235943\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4110.806047767216\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4110.802252506827\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4110.802003424056\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4110.801999354199\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4110.801999354205\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4110.801999354199\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAE30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 58905.74559489662\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49858.74695829366\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55447.55304973248\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9041.082150406968\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8904.56229859052\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6582.659335508316\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5787.421747790786\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5685.5226365160925\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4317.822993927906\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4132.344826350656\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5596.485713811621\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4117.914406190515\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4114.528925018937\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4113.665782388642\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4112.841759606177\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4112.76969308893\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4112.763168684505\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4112.761294906673\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4112.7608582325665\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4112.760810489951\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4112.76080935674\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4112.760809356739\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4112.76080935674\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8550>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71515.54294707517\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49552.67346952636\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55211.99784899174\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9041.518290038719\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8898.674383264268\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6429.3927353893305\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5795.237459221087\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5687.821346053441\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4476.224739446856\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4133.270239976764\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5593.547587022673\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4118.336401963776\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4115.5611652095995\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4114.846863528867\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4114.543600191956\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4114.511040091702\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4114.493899800533\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4114.491027263189\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4114.49046949277\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4114.490463633566\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4114.490462752437\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4114.490462752437\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8910>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71710.5928888789\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 45860.523252924795\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55261.77234699673\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9064.589842834404\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8901.263209832858\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6439.878197853313\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5799.025302450864\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5691.926733184103\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4395.497762700359\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4135.408034640797\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5598.729632682269\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4120.259769224903\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4117.699248493112\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4117.099814360537\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4116.83279120421\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4116.805727764771\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4116.795668344133\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4116.794629737881\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4116.793979064347\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4116.793976040217\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4116.793975519209\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4116.793975519209\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8BB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71667.90812736982\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 43045.49164230353\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55117.2466059959\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9105.314539013449\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8904.979539811815\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6473.179165249583\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5801.799654666452\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5695.514950536658\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4376.834991791735\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4137.40508465192\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5602.836808226267\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4122.090872191547\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4119.5715413104745\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4119.058768657656\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4118.759335128952\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4118.732849724018\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4118.723570582267\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4118.722959180577\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4118.722533628137\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4118.722516576378\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4118.722516576378\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4118.722516576378\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB1C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49988.137549401945\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48883.418726377466\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 54949.79579633686\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9028.792054213805\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8834.569201742124\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6018.733023408834\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5693.115280126412\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5692.363818650979\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5666.641143000272\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4142.379834785084\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5093.827982943556\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4139.208279353848\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4121.932950623292\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4120.795553524225\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4120.635986631518\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4120.586378648109\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4120.557182204672\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4120.553578403408\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4120.553368263151\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4120.553364871996\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4120.553364872001\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4120.553364871996\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28CD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 55434.2851812533\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 39799.592699632165\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 55388.57238660744\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9016.387672178593\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8837.513826695184\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6024.463315964705\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5697.4790737135845\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5696.602336413702\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5670.829063009158\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4143.854351854195\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5474.980605888208\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4141.4443405282655\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4124.1530984536785\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4123.032921591688\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4122.874935824349\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4122.8258698122645\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4122.797583118546\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4122.794267774836\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4122.794075288421\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4122.794072393024\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4122.794072393029\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4122.794072393024\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50264.305573260935\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49698.18249529427\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 56048.61341388333\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9057.615076808983\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8841.497651597932\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6026.589691175979\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5702.660243670294\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5702.0450647986345\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5675.1120296902845\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4145.852960624603\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5588.988206845765\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4144.269677532942\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4127.2182609645715\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4126.21234015274\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4126.050802440121\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4126.001857782441\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4125.974699680228\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4125.971500026897\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4125.9713248317985\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4125.971321857837\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4125.9713218578345\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4125.971321857837\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A54E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 59329.32714527044\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50705.27829714739\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 56023.513204036586\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9185.07466345948\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8924.632486954175\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6676.652721478984\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5810.278878756961\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5714.068123266387\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4227.286456778238\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4136.198530976025\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4164.9206031678095\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4129.9532798722175\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4132.519521464088\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4128.545038918084\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4128.430778569075\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4128.425659315306\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4128.425331863304\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4128.425249021699\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4128.42524109052\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4128.425240097635\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4128.425240097635\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A380>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72390.81090101151\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50322.14376480876\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55822.8360249854\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9179.354459378068\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8920.809480840046\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6491.034521751122\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5818.03478312502\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5713.645367860485\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4293.377413328324\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4148.431967458106\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5621.357401365104\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4133.945694869612\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4130.526216031174\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4131.446951861074\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4130.102161026604\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4130.0368811793305\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4130.026649086067\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4130.024282830798\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4130.0236614336445\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4130.023615101593\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4130.023613181887\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4130.023613181883\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4130.023613181887\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CED70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72183.28244901789\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 40250.76783984178\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55811.19113236993\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9076.668712264072\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8930.940624569135\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6468.326336835126\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5822.0757490102715\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5715.166123547473\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4303.602989416837\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4149.99383068606\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5623.846814178107\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4135.124558579442\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4132.276173500781\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4132.52391275142\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4131.850608241197\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4131.802427254817\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4131.796064572474\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4131.794772894236\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4131.794466649459\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4131.7944404086875\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4131.794439517653\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4131.794439517653\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CFDF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51894.392885763926\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 43296.439260098574\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 55441.551842121145\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9021.393419302067\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8855.68050572951\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6045.96200566209\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5711.382580106529\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5710.623041356362\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5685.264058917814\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4154.296139104612\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5395.016916210046\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4152.043090629857\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4134.701691334876\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4133.564221747972\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4133.415033313047\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4133.367304153551\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4133.341304625693\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4133.338153710776\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4133.337974212363\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4133.337971687809\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4133.3379716878135\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4133.337971687809\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B130>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51559.843932604905\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48981.79430563378\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 55212.84680649376\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9011.201866819478\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8859.34228737481\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6051.641840688011\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5714.209941437066\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5713.516265257853\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5688.422530594109\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4156.0828736418425\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5420.951845242094\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4153.794957899934\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4136.3852700486605\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4135.272144325222\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4135.126395168163\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4135.078499414902\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4135.053580614168\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4135.05037160615\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4135.0501929714\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4135.050190192935\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4135.050190192939\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4135.050190192935\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5030>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 54445.16099034496\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 45661.98642981256\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 55611.861863545746\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9029.990265958559\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8858.490588517405\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6051.091069846991\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5719.244606350632\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5718.550892191126\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5692.505077666076\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4157.836834353013\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5605.30823014646\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4156.388326336491\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4139.133591629279\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4138.104235551113\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4137.954895626133\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4137.907701413005\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4137.883390195117\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4137.8803755555455\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4137.880215536957\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4137.880212910614\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4137.880212910617\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4137.880212910614\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71936.10845202644\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 44475.91371273948\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55287.564105534046\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9196.568705580954\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8940.125884256944\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6529.21473628427\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5832.364388515457\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5727.073737652403\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4293.185075665108\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4157.895405028967\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5636.816133302262\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4142.809170299495\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4139.839577519105\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4143.874961939422\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4139.603273799767\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4139.576378952343\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4139.572366828464\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4139.571709164027\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4139.571496880355\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4139.571494611543\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4139.571494611547\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4139.571494611543\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CEB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71897.79692633147\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 39627.99899457245\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55321.59085690406\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9111.12426264164\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8950.352605759243\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6509.205101259302\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5836.7916860039695\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5729.076367510557\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4292.036149938462\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4159.579075880623\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5640.056544609079\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4144.365035853198\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4141.6939588530395\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4146.765374256368\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4141.49333535144\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4141.477622816399\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4141.476759130121\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4141.476677633688\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4141.47664247025\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4141.476640397575\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4141.4766398332895\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4141.4766398332895\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C430>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72070.96976203215\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49994.82634939662\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 55535.80286354805\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9131.653094213374\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8952.735571253717\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6516.895995735071\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5840.517515968293\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5733.010214403244\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4276.796741444265\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4161.733271266607\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5644.071895252788\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4146.743134818852\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4143.9113534499775\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4144.2116607690405\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4144.009678322117\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4143.72726382164\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4143.722490355742\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4143.721559783089\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4143.721455398925\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4143.721439554285\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4143.721439554285\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4143.721439554285\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49912.99863384807\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 39765.60991922428\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 52812.5370465766\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9012.916158532855\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8854.797934996663\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6057.429387479997\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5732.711914770587\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5731.786510254687\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5700.466901483793\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4172.8454842639385\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4903.931378317321\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4168.618213615664\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4151.822268007502\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4151.444859316045\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4151.357487102425\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4151.035223876647\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4150.99385733456\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4150.965509004549\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4150.960838494425\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4150.958775609093\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4150.958715669303\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4150.958710228555\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 4150.958710228553\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4150.958710228555\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 253\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29C90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68584.99474802449\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 47427.191412018175\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52157.54892171685\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 10093.14432799477\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8669.114348844636\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6747.067789687044\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5859.548551721244\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5744.81145648864\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4345.486493661176\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4172.352982189077\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4496.768231755668\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4170.368687897371\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4153.790947899153\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4153.237727211489\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4154.080686592915\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4153.05662476601\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4152.988020985269\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4152.961379903723\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4152.953177232206\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4152.9523435570245\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4152.9523270719\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4152.952324620737\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4152.952324620745\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4152.952324620737\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B160>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68456.67423821747\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 47374.88124381359\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52437.63835010865\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9160.415590003293\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8938.269353705746\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6671.159053641384\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5843.593974928231\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5738.108991312497\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4398.599263581399\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4173.793344825532\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5647.668863555997\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4157.360354744616\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4156.5690903930445\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4155.004661492447\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4154.889896392145\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4154.851782906769\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4154.845212025462\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4154.844841243163\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4154.844757400964\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4154.844754634463\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4154.84475463446\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4154.844754634463\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28A00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 47827.1983953576\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 47417.183005210034\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 52412.20814050186\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9092.625801521845\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8864.27940682201\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6063.588231713573\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5740.811563008506\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5739.293517504417\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5708.52499942835\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4181.245223566899\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4349.7599704705135\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4174.79960047428\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4158.170361218133\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4157.591984264378\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4157.3246601961255\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4157.278715709461\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4157.240845310398\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4157.234699904195\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4157.234085134873\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4157.2340628196325\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4157.2340628196325\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4157.2340628196325\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29C60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68413.47927646048\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 47405.62104452084\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52382.74457382611\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9175.041194701538\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8950.88004911783\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6698.223230031536\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5851.05047466165\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5744.532284736275\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4426.5295273874035\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4177.970086731169\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5651.841243986677\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4164.141267800533\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4160.761773051363\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4161.1813219873075\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4159.136123689351\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4159.072972550726\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4159.067444529387\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4159.066951097127\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4159.06694244171\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4159.066900088321\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4159.066899230358\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4159.066899230358\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29FF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69001.62596195165\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 47629.042289286444\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52821.357454842175\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9168.130251942628\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8966.716905266378\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6684.38330674964\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5856.231243246856\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5749.947435665229\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4352.881490473466\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4180.981103007864\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5656.285395198722\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4176.613866325426\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4163.678578724781\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4176.405057529611\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4162.173860001562\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4162.1026065335045\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4162.068050505646\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4162.064959743598\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4162.06476759947\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4162.064708404983\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4162.064705506501\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4162.0647055065065\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4162.064705506501\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A97B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49518.479264322814\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 39007.781194436466\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 52483.178678758995\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9189.437992818242\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8889.953235282097\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6067.789756345027\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5753.516007779896\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5752.057829427311\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5721.385907335189\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4186.853332707084\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4187.786847262123\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4180.601770499699\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4165.215244149858\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4164.516956543206\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4164.319961496656\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4164.3870360632445\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4164.224154475924\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4164.207419041997\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4164.205401080877\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4164.2052229915325\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4164.205220494199\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4164.205220494189\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4164.205220494199\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5600>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 48187.0485427235\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 43460.31870255986\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51827.775180203884\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9102.300725567799\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8892.885527090624\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6080.594959414524\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5755.25793056882\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5753.622906717939\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5723.244655785553\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4189.956635806696\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4187.902213690484\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4182.448312127659\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4167.121539632066\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4166.384212379802\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4166.212522692347\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4166.300662892138\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4166.136896284212\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4166.122636327824\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4166.121641290294\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4166.121586933741\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4166.121586215537\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4166.121586215537\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49786.225063696205\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 47570.23519153305\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 52583.073975435975\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9092.254270231388\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8895.835474147416\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6085.397343871713\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5759.047817250572\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5757.396552272472\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5726.982972705868\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4192.046521479896\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4188.474840324589\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4184.604045723755\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4169.386726016981\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4168.598649160895\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4168.435729079665\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4168.527931271328\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4168.3628931119065\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4168.349474889586\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4168.348613957707\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4168.348570587681\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4168.34856992208\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4168.34856992208\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68478.13300255367\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 47541.41665486996\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52409.86747476939\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9197.096944008217\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8985.824513916417\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6705.426693775086\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5866.764561553028\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5760.858101547748\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4410.889158064671\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4188.998161111939\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5666.957301754723\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4182.408469464787\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4171.707433181494\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4184.758111634819\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4170.163529533214\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4170.0948724339\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4170.067426011356\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4170.063302392627\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4170.063099132931\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4170.063017483757\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4170.063013920132\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4170.06301392014\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4170.063013920132\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387DA20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68318.30194907062\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 40727.202580255085\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52280.83423520099\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9188.694751705334\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8990.072178598595\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6721.101091651081\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5869.7264444803395\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5763.110659876835\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4448.948958319848\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4190.65373092183\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5669.516532310894\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4183.616351590856\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4173.591991928824\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4186.748689660265\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4172.040650094093\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4171.974265437731\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4171.950849694724\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4171.945237872828\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4171.945010393401\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4171.944919915843\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4171.944915641447\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4171.944915641456\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4171.944915641447\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 47319.1245443185\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40262.35876673651\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51084.24550854\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9213.262661967206\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8833.505834845293\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6088.723549062091\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5764.669964263778\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5761.628259450785\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5732.977376059063\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4199.095179857586\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4200.590495502987\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4190.357984272985\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4174.676489349969\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4173.913724205122\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4173.722000513482\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4173.8232680144665\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4173.633807159506\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4173.617776613186\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4173.615923363224\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4173.615748785315\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4173.615746475689\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4173.615746475679\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4173.615746475689\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABF10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68331.09671221321\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 47618.21214368613\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52251.09924465766\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9197.237646117344\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9000.481364586441\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6731.696229444391\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5875.411142977557\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5768.96552024933\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4424.501361087012\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4195.194310139401\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5675.973646157672\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4183.403099680134\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4177.940376841869\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4191.629139007546\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4176.334216773371\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4176.268299530066\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4176.2517245554345\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4176.249671495805\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4176.249031277353\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4176.248952144235\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4176.248946203294\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4176.248946203299\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4176.248946203294\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABEE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 47548.32081678881\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48001.38610492662\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51927.17694270784\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9179.67535302846\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8921.714350627039\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6095.178423116844\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5772.49565605688\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5770.305004387787\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5740.093738412388\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4203.38477817246\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4203.865019746971\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4195.072918851005\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4179.213113434664\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4178.486709644384\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4178.312803660034\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4178.395370494205\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4178.232131862902\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4178.218094080468\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4178.216835198489\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4178.216747025388\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4178.2167460146065\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4178.216746014603\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4178.2167460146065\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA7D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46240.96641723231\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48025.21738068198\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51886.298263316465\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9393.268171070391\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8792.721623663676\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6093.187631619781\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5776.691990375113\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5773.095346439935\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5744.892561029441\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4203.257866871341\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4306.525703957121\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4197.915991697702\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4181.548217189707\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4180.473755102001\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4180.2099759271405\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4180.169513921015\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4180.133859494836\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4180.12763959309\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4180.1269246761\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4180.126895675668\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4180.126894809158\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4180.126894809158\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB6D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67849.15676962317\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 47946.47300823493\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 51892.58641960293\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9232.497700787106\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9008.065228854526\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6831.963169939229\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5880.2782556707825\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5779.12426397904\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4375.464729329765\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4201.335502506883\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5685.024461360303\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4186.444655162899\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4182.669541406278\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4204.188238004452\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4181.892487499075\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4181.838512640183\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4181.827189410373\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4181.824508836031\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4181.824241225018\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4181.8242159350775\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4181.824214176515\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4181.824214176522\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4181.824214176515\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883B50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 48411.06139227928\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48097.370760954786\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51299.85535840162\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10009.281077287467\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8301.719428148426\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 5786.37241815965\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5804.106024482264\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5760.958174171883\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4776.77340268938\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4199.352436806182\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5659.265528122241\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4187.815317938228\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4183.904849124976\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4183.6812386469355\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4183.628120683862\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4183.610796961049\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4183.607287216513\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4183.606609681146\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4183.606579726356\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4183.606578127159\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4183.606578127152\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4183.606578127159\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880220>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67332.96902529133\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 43493.25437531325\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 50010.073060422204\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9248.748007589656\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9014.237612134275\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6860.529063094808\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5882.6579043644415\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5784.683852288676\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4377.092976672221\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4205.006178352096\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5689.537250418264\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4189.648236370242\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4185.400610604473\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4185.326059432463\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4186.895646165529\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4185.196911096909\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4185.193166059059\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4185.193024462935\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4185.192885842618\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4185.1928829212175\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4185.192877644316\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4185.1928776443165\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4185.192877644316\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB580>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 45955.38610392471\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48171.134986250865\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50764.45680438125\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9232.46868180911\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7536.358534995629\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 5808.251247746776\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5802.396005795457\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5770.485343659298\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4238.635171955422\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4206.9407346208645\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4780.408579524459\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4194.5348057001165\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4187.057960908232\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4186.955355993426\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4186.830052928473\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4186.770050385447\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4186.752319207028\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4186.746458094121\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4186.744834402255\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4186.744823474285\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4186.744817204161\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4186.74481720416\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4186.744817204161\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDFF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 47493.981415623246\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 39163.13841607854\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50503.18712908855\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 13015.67448042773\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 6896.208825106635\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 6013.9131905701315\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 5807.262302888701\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 5787.183124302239\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4618.966353037933\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4205.494161699494\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 5672.5944857616705\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4193.384735624084\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4188.752760500174\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4188.532379779152\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4188.416813516111\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4188.338411123845\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4188.316166023547\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4188.300527446601\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4188.294861409097\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4188.294579782179\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4188.294571726433\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4188.294570821608\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4188.294570821608\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883B80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52221.8748064332\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42513.88114003268\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49393.18893819\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 13753.780595867549\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 6901.257658646549\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 6018.293706826373\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 5813.963768140991\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 5793.017624944098\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4447.564771910088\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4207.4739887698925\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 5677.178869842962\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4195.065751143486\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4190.827983106228\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4190.628597389222\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4190.509019357311\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4190.453976052111\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4190.433544785718\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4190.419295428039\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4190.416795178238\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4190.416684034056\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4190.416680088567\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4190.416680088581\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4190.416680088567\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D330>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46370.452857604345\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 43864.04862576993\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50161.56856943406\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11374.30683364323\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7039.0436516341315\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5978.681404618102\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 5807.736729845206\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 5789.177069790991\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4811.103380600726\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4209.589952609704\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 5680.152700487718\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4197.844862645358\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4192.985733554238\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    165,   Neg. LLF: 4192.32450479854\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4192.1920419228845\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4192.161078690267\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4192.135509511161\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4192.12409398891\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4192.1223044201\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4192.122123636494\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4192.122118568561\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4192.122118568577\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4192.122118568561\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F700>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49509.21497608337\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42609.62127631974\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49934.61784340041\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 224135.80938645155\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7036.42714269602\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5991.545919132682\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 5829.31429228985\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 5806.09216815768\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4271.1712525125195\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4209.982860443002\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 5688.09316001688\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4196.454932070423\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4193.928790398387\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4194.2068221104955\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4193.700796672392\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4193.666804703662\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4193.648018392185\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4193.6406257444705\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4193.64056737162\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4193.640566261517\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4193.640566261514\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4193.640566261517\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F670>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67015.69278225288\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48299.60978650715\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 50953.816152794105\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9277.900059942811\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9028.24896341656\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6924.831329271361\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5896.832902121172\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5802.131479252419\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4380.2545623063415\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4217.335182330865\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5705.90269583163\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4202.0981699897475\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4202.396669328358\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4198.038132291476\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4197.526737598777\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4197.4699461925775\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4197.464081663306\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4197.461647725274\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4197.461453018343\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4197.461439502559\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4197.4614380288185\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4197.461438028819\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4197.4614380288185\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66687.4529025015\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48344.69620653018\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 49591.95776472142\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9488.907988003572\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9010.67573182086\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7089.6232446666\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5897.410276288647\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5810.244984850935\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4368.117397584463\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4220.833377226265\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5704.3947926115\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4209.980035674343\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4200.533665915988\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4200.146710558021\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4199.17639369966\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4199.076696442415\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4199.069545482229\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4199.065374629974\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4199.064623201582\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4199.064590531061\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4199.064587839624\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4199.064587839626\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4199.064587839624\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66294.12239908031\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48386.47103956512\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 49964.844324921054\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9298.983201094885\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9038.505842562627\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6984.659992440298\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5898.977319718271\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5804.989851773584\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4430.599757947262\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4220.734504997645\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5707.334176450621\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4206.04711017337\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4203.763573587403\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4201.374839129461\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4200.57010397705\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4200.505305850863\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4200.502501126179\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4200.498911423934\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4200.498788951202\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4200.498773924709\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4200.49877291405\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4200.49877291405\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4200.49877291405\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABEB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65900.07764312753\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48417.85491934609\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 49557.93158101045\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9441.67430030175\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8956.589886135145\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7065.35662673573\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5897.705252155926\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5807.047780306421\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4448.905525518605\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4222.6375283287325\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5708.974317321712\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4207.462177280305\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4206.746802113572\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4202.91850036156\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4202.068385330135\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4201.995564265226\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4201.993576928875\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4201.989163200835\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4201.9890762137475\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4201.989062806764\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4201.989062806762\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4201.989062806764\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929CC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46546.080309767305\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40946.64503929236\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48952.6728050202\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 216279.2682954277\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7048.98729814891\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5954.068385065197\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 5840.729557468318\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 5815.991521629524\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4264.925005053679\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4220.112885181325\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 5699.238927614626\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4206.531407792985\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4204.355044912132\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4204.4043694730335\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4204.122644920622\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4204.0938528474\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4204.072648323599\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4204.070380703548\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4204.070359893411\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4204.07035891642\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4204.07035891642\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392BBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 48314.727872546675\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42463.802938336084\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49429.56341580786\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 228227.68267677026\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7053.842532538278\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5944.798148936273\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 5842.448454999652\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 5817.173902208711\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4260.477062934393\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4221.381972808837\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 5701.3681587081555\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4207.565307548381\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4206.062635591775\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4205.7171992083895\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4205.635169990617\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4205.582308183626\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4205.552759459362\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4205.54649127873\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4205.5453143780105\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4205.545194796019\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4205.54519245902\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4205.545192459018\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4205.54519245902\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB1C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46973.838599869145\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41581.634951408385\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49662.84172873442\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 230504.96062785754\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7059.917178678574\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5957.624838030773\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 5845.827576646056\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 5820.753831170314\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4262.865163973975\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4223.640093929743\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 5704.2738925519625\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4209.783344608739\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4208.4439385608275\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4208.207694479441\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4208.116033845932\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4208.072782855657\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4208.048689649692\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4208.043444452427\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4208.042755160203\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4208.042670480725\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4208.042669232249\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4208.042669232247\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4208.042669232249\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABEB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 44463.799604186956\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 39942.7196083689\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49636.05775275393\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 20234.08916574561\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7005.132556478207\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5968.703306155008\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 5845.684713887875\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 5821.3191837639715\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4287.372199776319\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4225.498244156965\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 5707.301165080607\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4211.299146215228\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4209.815354706678\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4209.925802565649\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4209.609063674119\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4209.576269574809\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4209.5594715927655\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4209.556312572573\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4209.556231016491\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4209.556230040328\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4209.556230040328\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928A30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46347.39239565577\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48566.561560222195\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49209.322670969035\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 229864.2745216355\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7069.863180600829\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5934.007111450104\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 5849.223952225458\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 5822.80186389365\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4254.478896257464\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4214.923400385913\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 4217.299710478619\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4215.433169532259\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4211.201319400143\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4211.043075846486\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4210.98562198894\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4210.953630155413\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4210.940703469565\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4210.939102278087\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4210.9390701498\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4210.939070149792\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4210.9390701498\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883100>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 45897.58833742776\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 38756.826165343206\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49193.1122088346\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 224389.0723905661\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7073.965040796513\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5925.202624323956\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5852.311806855973\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5828.427743212951\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4234.22754486743\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 5744.991335077968\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4228.359820740756\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4215.430915378474\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4213.272498718565\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4212.696724003483\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4212.571686410805\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4212.5337422154225\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4212.515455593083\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4212.509419339636\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4212.509066341015\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4212.509058059603\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4212.509058059622\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4212.509058059603\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8A90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49724.965811022805\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48635.25793693613\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48868.07939996732\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 229101.1963107091\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7078.184420071371\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5923.05385499662\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5856.16845351904\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5830.361359624876\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4236.056884888227\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 5747.238241853249\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4230.162118408376\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4217.015742644572\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4214.946896400557\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4214.4437115482415\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4214.388548686604\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4214.286853853055\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4214.247150304521\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4214.233790770233\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4214.228804906306\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4214.228422649612\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4214.228402608272\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4214.228400867176\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4214.228400867179\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4214.228400867176\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B250>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64458.66903013423\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40276.8848714881\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48652.6372649744\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 233822.4199671676\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7083.454670245683\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5907.367509535095\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5858.70721850414\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5828.1033316280855\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4237.816075294735\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 5746.194798344577\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4232.000910934012\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4218.041143449256\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4216.185564813956\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4215.7794606487405\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4215.733613999194\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4215.64171534591\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4215.60661419053\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4215.594460937129\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4215.590808865691\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4215.590639074998\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4215.590625907148\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4215.590625314961\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4215.590625314961\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB550>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 47183.306446291375\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 39700.38561918997\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48503.450241995764\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 228356.38044231414\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7085.499352465084\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5910.394446013575\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5862.227538483004\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5831.503595576766\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4239.624049323338\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 5749.282153568154\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4233.824291531713\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4219.88482357185\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4218.0273080422485\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4217.636674776163\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4217.5911689157365\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4217.502648017187\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4217.468941147576\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4217.45747101208\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4217.454119203454\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4217.4539664365175\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4217.453954495128\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4217.453954495137\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4217.453954495128\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A41C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46033.584626505384\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40022.968971658665\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48333.54299425319\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 227742.28485317575\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7089.851879423072\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5896.265116975692\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5866.315694319831\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5831.796716556408\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4241.787431865343\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 5749.398965233505\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4235.785989541086\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4221.116773743495\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4219.513460400745\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4219.149217740296\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4219.1138868119815\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4219.025990450811\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4218.994629770288\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4218.983237548211\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4218.980195651868\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4218.980085651241\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4218.9800760364105\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4218.980076036423\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4218.9800760364105\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8A00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 45655.19063547636\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48787.879390386806\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48520.71714189672\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 235662.0280575818\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7084.371839346611\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5953.150561216662\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 5867.255924428335\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 5840.582172145784\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4265.494792409409\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4232.310838979793\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 4238.931028404331\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4224.203576857866\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4236.103635354901\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    165,   Neg. LLF: 4222.827361833108\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4222.597470088007\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4222.550556526077\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4222.518829882363\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4222.512032211207\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4222.510806234508\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4222.510667295946\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4222.510655639015\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4222.510655639007\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4222.510655639015\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387DB70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64572.187833378586\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42067.33442359386\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48177.83261392842\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10558.051589929715\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7246.631505845546\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5845.848418067781\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5861.538447480074\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5825.401043756325\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4354.126763055998\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4239.944205527802\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5716.395399012674\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4225.25058973532\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4224.124184791859\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4223.973348850683\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4223.950520702934\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4223.939349167204\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4223.937215628106\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4223.937135584415\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4223.937105453206\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4223.937099583933\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4223.937097538561\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4223.937097538546\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4223.937097538561\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64191.18638427928\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48881.233534309984\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48088.371252973906\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 237625.29466540046\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7090.245566131496\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 5896.892574587766\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5873.191179275219\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5836.93049996113\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4248.216060828205\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 5753.429923215846\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4242.270156102208\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4227.295463298867\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4225.738395857667\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4225.402798324658\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4225.366124745189\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4225.284976890422\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4225.255829350542\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4225.245602758385\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4225.243144348007\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4225.243071658014\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4225.243065549066\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4225.243065549075\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4225.243065549066\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E620>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64339.77855011576\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41380.09736639327\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48550.12949385454\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 241956.02474050235\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7086.093257503784\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 6042.750597690681\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 5872.845575949321\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 5849.803552346303\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4406.915566064696\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4246.760421723434\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 5729.21959606356\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4233.111339955167\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4231.104718232691\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4230.637578804983\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4230.555562837357\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4230.500982972948\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4230.481843739006\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4230.475883102213\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4230.475529752498\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4230.475499552844\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4230.4754979576555\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4230.4754979576555\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4230.4754979576555\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65176.76158079112\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48863.76356295732\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48898.10788858005\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11045.33249143057\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7891.607785923401\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 5899.898599619344\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5856.634557783504\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5831.149800020448\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4265.795934063259\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 5771.157226592477\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4251.826203999541\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4235.983896697755\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4248.293515083546\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4233.676518583608\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4233.4664720198925\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4233.400426483469\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4233.37351873098\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4233.369115988491\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4233.368223770705\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4233.368182797847\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4233.368178637229\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4233.368177659415\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4233.368177659415\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCFD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65919.9138452734\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40355.83603872245\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49599.64796924112\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11007.920881495571\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7880.945396047038\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6106.866907623229\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5854.958623975929\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5842.456932777857\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5823.329587610503\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4258.7513608005775\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5737.7626249052555\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4257.399722853994\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4248.4654888184505\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4237.017557800004\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4236.873348422249\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4236.7977860610745\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4236.757084103323\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4236.745230153223\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4236.7399535921195\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4236.739558574874\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4236.739549871974\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4236.7395498719725\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4236.739549871974\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCCA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46662.89081840175\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40642.80567489133\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49595.74383335671\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10532.886983490112\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8313.726725120461\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6172.731968642087\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5858.564678196286\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5849.206536841341\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5826.996089166155\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4262.601974098841\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5746.275316905049\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4254.812465374451\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4239.952575269441\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4240.018048297182\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4240.1917569135085\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4239.154663282842\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4239.099510662323\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4239.079955971727\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4239.073395188299\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4239.072840235789\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4239.0727814967795\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    245,   Neg. LLF: 4239.072778914693\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    254,   Neg. LLF: 4239.072778914698\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4239.072778914693\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 254\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD720>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51103.39028299187\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40021.3458682663\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50632.76859433271\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9618.480093486573\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8993.93180086585\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6178.813802711086\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5862.569289982094\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5863.889989811603\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5831.515350645989\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4263.923184548213\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5744.05805572796\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4262.428801833359\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4244.960017016417\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4244.089875239554\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4243.846665997434\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4243.781332747671\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4243.732373227986\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4243.725561192003\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4243.72510545711\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4243.725083383875\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4243.725080715818\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4243.725080715821\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4243.725080715818\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CEC80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67852.21521654789\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48884.08037084277\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 51539.18352900422\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9722.734449782798\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9065.088414991882\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7523.599427870456\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5951.232845527067\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5890.77487425389\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4509.577585513169\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4268.955702793493\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4265.319426052398\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4268.876780361152\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4249.582058603223\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4248.264618864596\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4247.178362954008\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4246.907184882439\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4246.836183979176\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4246.799128242243\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4246.7888663635185\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4246.787819362369\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4246.787738983683\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4246.7877330495285\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 4246.787733049521\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4246.7877330495285\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 253\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928D30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68974.17216029383\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 44448.26912496121\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52245.82523650167\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9674.364037414165\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9082.110531153694\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7449.057624103284\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5956.885795547101\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5900.836518145755\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4483.313545469897\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4270.515950985969\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4334.943282232953\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4273.574513320602\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4252.504152205676\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4252.300942826673\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4251.10746764794\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4250.950442454374\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4250.901171368714\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4250.887673663839\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4250.886174490459\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4250.886073040366\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4250.886068874273\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4250.886068874284\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4250.886068874273\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE050>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 48183.11076313183\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41597.3144453634\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51815.49704650568\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9567.26235247685\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9036.534026582009\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6187.100338296522\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5875.798068013177\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5880.636007406203\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5845.262623580962\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4272.110479791247\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5760.967844644431\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4268.315495033712\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4254.155313450816\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4253.331936378601\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4253.172358900967\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4253.087785271868\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4253.067413537485\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4253.060434687026\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4253.0602755235195\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4253.06026985238\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4253.060269164294\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4253.060269164294\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CEAD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68972.3868257078\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 41264.65204975752\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52230.76107553486\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9531.269970343961\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9136.555140182116\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7511.8844932621\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5961.278008542517\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5904.409654752442\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4414.075420537696\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4281.132856684244\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4275.4580174490875\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4276.477628340499\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4256.533924114193\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4255.5037548795435\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4255.592248339051\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4255.622031162505\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4255.216072793332\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4255.202530796746\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4255.20011217701\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4255.199994195238\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4255.199990210731\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4255.199990210713\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4255.199990210731\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E6B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68593.96298009236\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 41067.35068547549\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52035.098973607426\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9535.769823415343\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9138.705986802033\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7546.721747038426\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5961.617720720713\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5903.6961737543625\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4440.684169464701\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4274.605457050182\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4262.029500491306\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4272.810300373638\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4259.028036485824\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4257.43604660701\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4258.170860688707\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4257.0982192201045\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4257.008766437007\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4256.9978299768645\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4256.995968856463\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4256.995705434792\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4256.9957036911\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4256.995703691091\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4256.9957036911\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68383.19145759975\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 40938.252093208386\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52037.18788453695\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9498.412449149528\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9148.235178417513\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7515.734922356625\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5964.67375689227\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5905.814525363602\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4439.676529351767\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4277.735663092211\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4269.711486423574\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4279.890446739431\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4260.253712835863\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4260.410484311743\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4259.076607165642\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4258.955012951303\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4258.919736529249\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4258.914368459652\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4258.9139470119435\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4258.91392386571\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4258.913921618619\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4258.913921618627\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4258.913921618619\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABB80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51486.07910785276\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40628.769003253095\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51520.53011605555\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10205.913989986107\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8485.024551238277\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6193.128320188474\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5889.132498580581\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5882.849126954954\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5856.5928661488415\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4283.609664064226\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5780.948561242156\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4277.8200936119465\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4261.609693137974\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4261.198676022752\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4261.185256488425\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4261.0272403003655\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4260.979454428496\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4260.964105584413\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4260.961657766056\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4260.961524780823\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4260.96149704369\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4260.961496428614\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4260.961496428614\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA770>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50012.56291151338\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42322.10812389547\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51530.43636338504\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10326.341832568913\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8434.61792406121\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6195.816139631926\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5893.133689172397\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5885.52375228386\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5860.714047372024\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4285.632169108982\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5784.156509353383\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4279.909065708671\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4263.713435203281\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4263.23783030655\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4263.227428995967\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4263.071278320851\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4263.022900898038\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4263.007854833719\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4263.004826025587\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4263.00468036827\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4263.004655595365\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4263.004654861883\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4263.004654861883\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9600>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49985.89039191441\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49115.69353653406\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 52095.997752160925\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9826.521235225224\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8777.599256073801\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6200.5664458851\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5895.3764196121065\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5894.854216018384\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5864.153189029892\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4285.284685324209\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5784.369769613533\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4277.366590122843\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4266.174322011001\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4266.040102540706\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4265.993938004246\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4265.891906623267\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4265.849728324123\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4265.840539066778\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4265.838214969519\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4265.838144406247\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4265.838121724363\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4265.8381217243605\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4265.838121724363\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAF20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51975.43529914993\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41315.33093803219\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51627.458468864206\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10050.01059502969\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8667.301376395139\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6204.144939628617\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5897.26165173385\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5894.036235403075\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5864.906769702472\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4289.044846800252\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5788.124190909299\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4283.692697397599\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4268.054522620772\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4267.749950934684\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4267.7238439645935\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4267.589993095178\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4267.545701516644\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4267.532563308074\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4267.53135058317\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4267.531324007593\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4267.531321915413\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4267.531321915403\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4267.531321915413\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8400>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69022.62202225538\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 44889.7041536046\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52674.40306063186\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9539.921329556832\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9182.006945830253\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7555.084652178537\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5981.122473396155\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5922.083523145995\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4421.990916104762\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4296.539470471769\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4285.962846116412\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4290.2502986510935\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4271.530213197723\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4271.912786157258\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4270.559867830418\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4270.303603309887\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4270.247221869276\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4270.2198317183875\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4270.212467457973\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4270.212071170266\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4270.212053983911\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4270.212053132345\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4270.212053132345\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABEE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69502.53319566426\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 48953.561630486\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 53127.46210185037\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9618.750089949504\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9176.566520958608\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7520.127945217165\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 5987.277958212237\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5928.438721071826\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4412.942315973929\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4298.373964838611\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4288.1418925381895\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4293.268022444296\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4274.206185897925\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4274.603490096656\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4273.260065479108\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4272.972396677775\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4272.912842231839\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4272.883570785862\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4272.875012356091\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4272.874541560662\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4272.874521339734\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4272.8745206868625\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4272.8745206868625\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB8E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52375.99248679195\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41597.988860758356\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50785.881224698605\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9488.332846527606\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9112.360686086035\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6212.079109320548\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5909.211411103413\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5915.597678103219\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5872.747702399969\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4300.294808176015\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5562.9387422429145\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4298.220173114145\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4280.425186833238\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4279.915869450838\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4279.7530347017055\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4279.607611826332\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4279.55255936299\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4279.539629433486\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4279.5264594838245\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4279.525370956368\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4279.5253572093425\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4279.52535720933\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4279.5253572093425\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A080>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50756.857989675875\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42941.40469414157\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50715.81259442764\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9679.640828513035\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9117.35470272306\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6212.104145204617\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5918.475850750245\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5922.2658232447\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5883.369328394601\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4300.766152540325\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5801.644467533489\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4291.204671084966\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4282.796947305106\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4282.875573923539\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4282.470231036696\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4282.400338358181\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4282.36735451331\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4282.362453468696\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4282.36219190743\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4282.362151835945\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4282.362150922678\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4282.362150922678\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F700>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68610.9711880635\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49344.85800993923\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51156.616729452435\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9452.232939542686\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9160.412751600048\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6221.9352994273395\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5918.3301025914625\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5925.61961154297\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5873.816279659757\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4305.6801674154985\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5113.961461699286\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4303.819514414308\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4285.815334796838\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4285.324134615221\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4285.163662611991\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4285.039796720308\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4284.983321734586\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4284.971782340433\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4284.9629940579\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4284.962758213584\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4284.962754225942\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4284.9627542259595\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4284.962754225942\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68248.08804446197\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49369.337736617636\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50103.76376152647\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9440.148293458416\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9160.283560979344\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6228.122281807782\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5918.868053718541\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5925.813588217505\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5868.050483537834\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4310.294413151894\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4606.680194758986\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4305.770452203167\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4287.726224678929\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4287.335493857183\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4287.174176173498\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4287.061354929012\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4287.009752004837\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4286.999439279356\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4286.993989568517\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4286.992996810491\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4286.992984115239\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4286.992983039092\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4286.99298303909\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4286.992983039092\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8C10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68142.11575654028\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49394.254191645414\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50891.50914378089\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9422.36308661578\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9167.565237381366\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6232.7967779009105\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5921.952455655506\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5929.038746515556\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5874.232477310765\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4312.790941183641\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4561.711217240916\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4307.796735335456\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4289.914401701684\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4289.499696181028\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4289.341270133642\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4289.222695666984\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4289.174269152186\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4289.165585453016\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4289.153527924187\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4289.152588534258\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4289.152556560255\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4289.152555746915\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4289.152555746915\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4F40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49293.06582222809\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49422.7969013987\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50895.61058959203\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9443.161836532663\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9171.789325619953\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6233.6450470710515\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5926.124884080429\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5933.240169768027\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5878.017461041358\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4314.519938169459\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4612.0913626268375\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4310.197079402586\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4292.283438513448\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4291.8691114671865\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4291.711373562511\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4291.595231326125\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4291.544466216463\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4291.53502940963\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4291.526888648927\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4291.526658202727\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4291.52664723696\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4291.526647236942\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4291.52664723696\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A41C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49702.31031983267\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49445.36508646356\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51083.281597656154\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9477.270243912193\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9178.907782066664\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6235.128456123404\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5930.915658963038\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5937.7862398234665\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5884.472441243999\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4315.92718097484\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4665.485991804345\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4312.472186350597\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4294.581687435178\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4294.128028078608\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4293.973081956783\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4293.853861887614\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4293.801655917003\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4293.790657814556\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4293.785156394469\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4293.783836900399\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4293.783822275691\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4293.783820838249\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4293.783820838247\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4293.783820838249\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CED10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68261.64295724077\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 39782.14922922667\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51257.691923779574\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9477.599501129078\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9187.659916830708\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6239.373546858053\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5935.029653641424\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5941.530077099058\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5888.008524787527\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4317.956946621842\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4707.671947362225\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4314.737097033568\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4296.7965924283235\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4296.3740672471795\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4296.218804086206\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4296.103508099946\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4296.052519546882\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4296.0406160495295\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4296.0361753624165\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4296.036194026889\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4296.036090227165\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4296.036087822895\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 4296.036087822896\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4296.036087822895\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 253\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF580>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51770.53108831076\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49567.89759745415\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51469.90293262378\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9510.99148539253\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9214.918771215864\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6236.643318436489\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5943.399793370329\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5950.9235601669725\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5891.596540043231\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4322.901266510604\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5817.8319567703575\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4320.148099193895\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4301.694437828677\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4301.426576185775\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4301.231247176897\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4301.1138448344245\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4301.067428877962\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4301.051632191004\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4301.043824080769\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4301.043311780371\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4301.0433036365575\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4301.043303636552\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4301.0433036365575\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC6A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51423.66466538243\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49584.678600028055\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50782.967449933574\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9797.491845900386\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9165.10181688466\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6240.021215491079\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5950.487680023804\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5953.166568942348\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5915.097118227113\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4313.633753890084\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5825.257471455215\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4305.902279146522\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4303.401793038496\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4303.157341825039\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4303.134467534814\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4303.163657021523\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4303.109323924531\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4303.108296623517\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4303.108264372271\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4303.108261383078\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4303.108261383071\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4303.108261383078\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A60E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52869.19272742917\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41272.5969808209\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51240.32042102231\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9424.29474059368\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9217.570757230464\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6254.249067647765\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5945.646451153562\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5953.595386063544\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5893.224234100721\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4330.884651957525\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4682.937302656226\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4324.167219605102\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4305.860363434971\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4305.598836602735\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4305.417629217232\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4305.3056468814975\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4305.258854980288\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4305.248822381629\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4305.243062200532\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4305.242418655822\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4305.242410862723\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4305.24241086273\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4305.242410862723\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF2E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68553.35604337297\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49619.75147866234\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50901.41750643752\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9444.066692668455\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9216.588048359354\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6255.825069845123\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5947.2870582169135\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5954.5032230161605\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5891.778835351573\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4335.021835177351\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4614.110581888484\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4326.229543517882\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4307.798951387051\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4307.557298758298\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4307.3788169594045\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4307.27198237138\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4307.226695672694\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4307.216269652794\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4307.214883904584\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4307.212375729885\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4307.212366191365\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4307.212366191372\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4307.212366191365\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A770>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50747.26014876767\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49641.74383819675\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50764.97862687844\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9450.063965626141\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9224.405277191981\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6260.906712927257\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5951.252413400969\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5958.990244590294\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5896.045194076999\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4337.188643394041\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4598.662587787811\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4328.46976348764\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4310.053196452672\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4309.799802854292\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4309.625784587806\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4309.519843051042\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4309.4746050013555\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4309.463564562017\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4309.461552176807\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4309.461194143387\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4309.460759425025\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4309.460758527163\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4309.460758527163\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CF40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69426.4208931071\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 39805.41378472402\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51757.84642905845\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9460.150076437341\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9238.717090013944\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6265.1374355103235\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5957.91344607731\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5965.405224446749\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5907.279390550901\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4337.983394788604\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4648.899989044547\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4331.941364484363\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4313.813520470411\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4313.498222538894\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4313.322132076864\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4313.203039401621\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4313.154082282971\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4313.141892538563\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4313.140256913928\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4313.136740607187\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4313.136715434399\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4313.136713840521\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4313.136713840522\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4313.136713840521\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDEA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69091.57638576238\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49677.723295408854\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51327.37569528921\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9570.5377273817\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9238.373161910342\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6260.1643226171345\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5961.080712731337\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5967.176933060164\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5912.383989914773\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4339.214112982567\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4669.91114192993\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4333.849729736996\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4315.889430446213\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4315.450246035494\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4315.28377275586\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4315.15094018403\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4315.099023321261\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4315.088917003514\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4315.077641023014\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4315.0773384631475\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4315.07732213129\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4315.077322131304\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4315.07732213129\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A76D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68963.41492996822\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40309.94137715935\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51435.594255875396\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9399.912381201471\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9246.14389971148\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6276.886273543374\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5960.491170952177\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5968.083987785601\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5911.854829395842\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4344.011200756059\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4562.893632038413\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4335.67198876123\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4317.828637410675\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4317.521906105554\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4317.347559505004\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4317.221435624824\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4317.181041928856\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4317.168164901531\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4317.156075008793\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4317.1546478732125\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4317.154541791262\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4317.154540602651\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4317.154540602654\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4317.154540602651\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39299C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50637.12081593636\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49731.41133383452\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51295.629906058435\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9406.887257101822\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9245.41113417402\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6276.895692521628\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5962.792447255322\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5970.573596293826\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5913.456102058541\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4346.747774695941\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4524.648965717421\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4337.530990262998\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4319.787012137064\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4319.457086642795\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4319.290606476079\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4319.164279571914\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4319.131303523035\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4319.1058670884995\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4319.097449217568\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4319.095572651084\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4319.095455839841\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4319.095455076333\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4319.095455076333\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9450>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49804.779749438036\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41618.48121271141\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51970.13705879287\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9422.640891631705\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9259.332459090007\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6280.909831360399\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5968.248790423131\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5975.758608985252\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5915.114064465448\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4350.311707887134\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4497.874693822203\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4340.901963759134\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4323.470410214275\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4323.17317182018\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4323.0006277708535\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4322.87820223398\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4322.842336551298\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4322.824991081746\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4322.814871753385\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4322.813467562286\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4322.813352554933\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4322.8133515227355\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4322.81335152274\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4322.8133515227355\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA410>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69213.9588221995\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 46349.93742091814\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51574.0337075087\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9619.805987436745\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9261.536790889717\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6271.425000483108\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5974.498534934923\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5980.014777866116\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5921.279673681745\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4350.40979689069\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4544.503148694521\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4343.258756155312\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4325.708220983074\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4325.282356803131\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4325.119988752899\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4324.993105862504\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4324.946379444935\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4324.93758948868\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4324.924351667523\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4324.923309510405\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4324.923266813333\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4324.923264732436\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4324.923264732439\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4324.923264732436\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9B10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49115.14493128294\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49790.97128498422\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51374.669582640854\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9468.674706884292\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9268.827541333752\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6281.2254103986525\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5972.162421900782\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5979.622971954748\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5921.780502192874\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4355.639964340253\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4468.487647947799\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4344.903636562987\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4327.426557089884\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4327.065521324516\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4326.906997835595\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4326.775647923132\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4326.749210030962\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4326.7128378027855\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4326.705169356058\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4326.702658449272\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4326.702609823563\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4326.702609197508\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4326.702609197508\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB790>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68679.89756212139\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49815.39954068997\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51393.74359555091\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9444.422840936699\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9272.932359600762\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6286.5120356921925\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5975.579709305592\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5982.878917648904\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5923.9875073518\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4357.924922350641\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4473.096046499283\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4346.976575763951\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4329.492612937014\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4329.153664560645\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4328.994546868685\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4328.869632452629\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4328.8434825856075\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4328.808883966229\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4328.801799566083\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4328.799657486354\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4328.799616061262\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4328.799615589511\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4328.799615589511\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB640>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69337.9740182078\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 43638.814067092564\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51897.652051910896\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9486.167111006875\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9284.380825986946\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6288.562051779108\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5981.246654011839\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5988.147530087985\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5926.268369285195\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4360.487648558143\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4501.665619846333\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4350.214497566336\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4332.799546489698\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4332.514045186048\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4332.345603863014\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4332.233186755395\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4332.196666060005\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4332.184460343922\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4332.174045887008\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4332.173145059764\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4332.173073440146\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4332.17307274698\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4332.17307274698\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4D90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 48318.968397720724\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49840.73633956678\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51429.57254950472\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9653.946602951604\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9278.81850295772\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6282.397709068972\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5984.466462228886\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5990.3411263965245\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5929.094116456456\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4360.996535073329\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4538.700140925994\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4352.354818847069\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4334.739425262236\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4334.342426272043\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4334.183923450022\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4334.071611345498\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4334.026408953403\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4334.019529308132\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4334.008301425042\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4334.007835365193\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4334.007812781172\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4334.007811413176\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4334.007811413178\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4334.007811413176\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5090>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68588.91249139792\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 44211.42196954475\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51296.26381540018\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9512.793928696392\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9283.376034448145\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6293.436928739542\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5983.711166996871\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5991.188133224508\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5929.783393494345\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4366.144278174816\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4478.777599219258\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4353.995490125948\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4336.46532971982\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4336.126368531701\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4335.970696817568\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4335.857331820433\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4335.831397474773\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4335.799222201061\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4335.793171028499\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4335.791687206471\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4335.791653824583\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4335.791653824582\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4335.791653824583\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB670>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68575.08098946579\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49913.02059930495\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51236.26562039525\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9715.540466841174\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9162.76433034572\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6291.787344210152\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5989.306622006115\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5994.289926946707\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5937.921869752445\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4363.64464414738\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4618.153511841896\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4356.494800800833\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4338.70905837335\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4338.289222282932\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4338.134400660185\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4338.019582938941\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4337.9738084721575\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4337.965656331157\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4337.955693996592\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4337.955404806555\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4337.955390379252\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4337.9553896689595\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4337.9553896689595\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A920>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 48627.572513144114\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42932.46448860148\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51111.56015165386\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9818.478231759955\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9085.697614474971\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6291.469754638758\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 5994.274598188073\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5997.888169584597\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5949.6706267408135\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4361.208330765551\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5868.048570738843\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4358.446815549675\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4340.754345865979\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4340.3875779889\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4340.201572425171\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4340.065214313501\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4340.021827209592\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4340.007150707344\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4339.997137811005\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4339.996594410457\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4339.996588343414\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4339.996587236538\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4339.996587236539\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4339.996587236538\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A080>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68272.87187153325\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 49976.1602750392\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50957.71622551877\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10205.563493353493\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8775.462205046657\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6291.46257955173\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6000.331192252087\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5997.325436926947\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5967.0663150074415\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4363.007862281918\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5887.815133854603\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4357.75875705376\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4342.415932155493\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4342.3447083965675\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4342.1459240356635\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4341.97802685719\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4341.919457216034\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4341.910061112172\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4341.909120246894\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4341.909082779367\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4341.909065544603\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4341.909065544607\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4341.909065544603\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387DF90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 48451.454020494886\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50005.56923317841\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50537.71669153699\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10562.45941650754\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8553.58275111546\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6293.4288906253005\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6003.368972280384\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 5995.412115007915\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5970.510148403959\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4365.768964154566\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5892.996736801204\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4359.984272207106\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4344.328875807448\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4343.918768182121\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4343.929170283897\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4343.682341648124\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4343.632510761394\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4343.609708360523\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4343.603779596477\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4343.603373687103\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4343.603345679742\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4343.603344533412\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 4343.603344533412\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4343.603344533412\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 253\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAA40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49953.951922780296\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41517.11129996202\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51386.83397241475\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9938.696794981115\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8980.486697416556\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6296.917190310905\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6004.330959390791\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6005.474433764599\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5972.604017961196\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4367.013664317552\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5883.588010833606\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4364.977525293332\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4347.733650501222\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4347.836415790252\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4347.314984793664\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4347.240765785084\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4347.207183801096\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4347.193538487547\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4347.191951957004\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4347.191872908612\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4347.191863297634\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4347.191863297632\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4347.191863297634\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9F00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50877.038913111595\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 43193.36229700738\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50904.678433471134\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9701.09644900907\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9302.22410708993\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6301.733629209129\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6004.860519552334\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6011.028584084133\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5951.624376872511\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4376.755292585292\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4489.882678703515\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4367.653096285617\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4349.92465119704\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4349.338265664547\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4349.199670541025\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4349.079988705897\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4349.045447487644\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4349.015541570636\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4349.008509110374\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4349.006661909336\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4349.006604096445\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4349.0066020829745\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4349.006602082976\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4349.0066020829745\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9B70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68999.7155718068\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50053.427342281255\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51558.52078306539\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9689.230706358783\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9311.572936079665\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6306.861616170786\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6010.00151882116\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6015.616598513785\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5950.431241755657\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4381.332574757025\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4411.670971536144\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4370.300924800085\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4352.9803409762935\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4352.558688121429\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4352.412453956458\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4352.31731943705\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4352.286516031081\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4352.26511760107\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4352.258252343534\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4352.257640649431\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4352.2576047914845\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4352.257603843929\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4352.257603843929\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9480>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68824.06152013081\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50107.213529362874\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51318.48112883099\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9806.376019411662\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9296.276800620013\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6309.011635859541\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6015.933712805872\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6019.881308933856\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5958.189814972729\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4378.420430689749\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4569.306541081116\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4372.785375333398\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4355.062557849522\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4354.559516590684\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4354.40511641532\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4354.284577737797\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4354.236704246277\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4354.226057744323\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4354.219130487526\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4354.2184623339235\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4354.218450950688\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4354.218448831184\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4354.218448831182\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4354.218448831184\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9B70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 48645.754288554825\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50150.87019416076\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51046.751729029\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10097.750772113986\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8994.67107578919\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6306.433707566703\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6017.42405390234\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6017.442840149722\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5984.245591743574\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4376.046826036063\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5901.069976950177\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4372.163976085988\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4356.1779970173975\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4356.031900224905\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4355.915855516034\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4355.893052403005\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4355.892820205303\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4355.856542614671\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4355.8559311970175\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4355.855877850882\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4355.855876793454\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4355.855876793454\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4355.855876793454\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BF70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51205.876837102434\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41106.27800005006\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50633.01073799499\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10452.21430700568\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8726.843031032284\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6309.241810929494\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6020.493112770327\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6014.772733851318\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5986.800398118431\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4381.044253009592\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5909.4280363839625\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4373.856908854543\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4358.087988177601\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4357.861223084703\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4357.845722146107\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4357.588627959215\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4357.5485137663445\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4357.52265495459\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4357.51789964774\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4357.517496380846\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4357.517465459039\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4357.517465459066\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4357.517465459039\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28E50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67726.85946458002\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50209.6894442983\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50517.495550678505\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10659.320505944233\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8595.291231243062\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6313.524538247202\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6024.3458113893685\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6015.827720214836\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5991.36439615659\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4381.8710961285415\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5913.2371830052925\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4375.655551957667\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4360.030509750361\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4359.642934043641\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4359.680915710236\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4359.390995071372\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4359.343714771509\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4359.31953000738\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4359.3122866216345\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4359.311926630635\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4359.311901852215\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4359.311900857243\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4359.311900857243\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29900>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 48240.21240988515\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50247.02125887119\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50383.11821095079\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10826.244460406564\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8499.348328604403\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6317.194030684882\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6027.900986681795\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6018.007481666324\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5995.971862974113\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4381.777907193786\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5916.394747497141\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4377.433848769138\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4362.325006064379\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4361.566295766169\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4361.373391082756\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4361.299828091096\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4361.260237950925\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4361.243442453013\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4361.241119054595\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4361.240935726062\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4361.240927987335\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4361.240927987343\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4361.240927987335\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29930>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50007.08641694\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40330.79937425119\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50343.50750221877\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10821.828937828257\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8527.656117610144\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6320.566051185627\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6032.335194575306\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6022.545706919029\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6000.119197270098\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4383.859077231873\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5920.210067032343\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4379.674662945676\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4364.342780229513\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4363.663885697126\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4363.491338109626\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4363.418152333814\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4363.383482438066\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4363.369235437277\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4363.367625654586\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4363.367524152746\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4363.367519943835\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4363.3675199438385\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4363.367519943835\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29C60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 48005.28178965908\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 43722.93908675895\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50832.004605110524\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10458.854216402378\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8773.409264813079\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6321.643814450436\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6036.468633140352\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6030.777615804221\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6002.077521314345\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4388.653637594633\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5923.393258377197\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4382.332110979383\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4366.833834793595\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4366.564765551212\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4366.548054952169\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4366.359897982868\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4366.317273552306\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4366.300286527827\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4366.2978911356\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4366.297686639902\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4366.297671966356\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4366.297671966382\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4366.297671966356\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A740>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52585.51103413524\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41633.68512598089\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50874.48203062589\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10486.417875279712\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8754.798221310244\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6325.871866460269\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6039.949083315438\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6033.6088324547145\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6005.58920236759\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4390.873611895033\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5926.51203339446\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4384.529584416774\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4369.025303788627\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4368.742196072538\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4368.729143432791\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4368.544242580034\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4368.501059675047\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4368.485255305328\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4368.482688294691\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4368.482513576868\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4368.4825002918315\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4368.482500291857\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4368.4825002918315\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29000>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49343.750839973196\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50384.887311061306\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50447.11529410658\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10812.293090470692\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8565.758007723189\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6329.188406103251\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6043.043454958615\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6033.346339773479\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6010.2585291716\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4390.610544851776\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5929.612273190451\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4386.420929167316\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4371.020597723737\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4370.463467335741\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4370.468473918995\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4370.260572438643\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4370.207670106911\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4370.190024801754\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4370.184860979107\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4370.18439456754\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4370.184375909301\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4370.184374236036\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 4370.184374236042\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4370.184374236036\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 253\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F2B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67731.68990421746\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 48508.29390463598\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50420.77783542159\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11257.507064278407\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8206.09759908171\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6334.387894031547\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6044.436785882854\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6032.813652882311\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6000.598225274112\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4389.705091091968\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5928.224952869527\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4377.991827110137\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4372.745558673581\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4371.955383476905\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4371.823661839488\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4371.7609769371065\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4371.744119506762\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4371.739619803811\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4371.739329799328\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4371.739266026688\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4371.739254664588\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4371.739254664593\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4371.739254664588\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5570>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46633.739957462545\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50423.98933966248\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50735.560432167396\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11222.389194224545\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8243.262288729824\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6339.161524027732\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6048.140279101549\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6036.4434902533685\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6009.482057467148\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4391.73559906529\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5932.346368233887\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4378.876176484817\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4374.6607689213115\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4374.357745514306\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4374.216385324216\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4374.155981656458\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4374.128910594609\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4374.120366760735\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4374.118921745287\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4374.118906042\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4374.118904923481\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4374.118904923491\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4374.118904923481\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929B10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51773.04953973734\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 39973.691571843185\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50401.38279416168\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11216.82149223897\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8292.734523217678\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6343.66301004793\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6049.372532661695\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6038.038566169705\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6008.320296679972\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4393.448988179558\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5933.537869539174\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4381.524864710935\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4376.372331734599\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4375.925651033325\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4375.757892297952\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4375.702522955644\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4375.678419907492\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4375.673302309745\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4375.67270384465\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4375.672623989029\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4375.672599324727\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4375.672599324736\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4375.672599324727\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929CC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49481.54977580084\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50481.05311983243\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50109.37355861865\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11623.627726497361\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7969.690183901392\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6345.963251247875\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6053.460372982703\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6042.395722716502\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5999.561593358754\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4395.323184787181\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5937.067909913874\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4393.166690474694\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4377.994601320173\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4377.468419105437\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4377.383863512328\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4377.2908381829675\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4377.256631519369\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4377.24546691457\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4377.244164947573\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4377.243940285893\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4377.243910531635\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4377.2439095754235\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4377.2439095754235\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928A30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 47868.05196870925\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 43316.60982097854\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49772.89364207837\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11784.32124821643\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7870.510504581789\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6346.403115865299\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6056.204482592919\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6046.608313576478\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6009.678706621854\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4396.544892523745\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5941.445783808312\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4382.511092155438\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4379.273822469717\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4379.00057282313\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4378.911765605151\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4378.790977833262\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4378.753327655774\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4378.735772606728\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4378.732974607839\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4378.7329207403345\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4378.732908776573\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4378.7329073975425\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4378.732907397537\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4378.7329073975425\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD240>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67504.40597220908\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42643.79616432394\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50229.287881544195\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11553.26998558788\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8044.4254386508555\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6351.206212493449\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6058.144428260623\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6046.585337258032\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5995.3508404679\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4399.055428776894\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5938.033347428353\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4387.272163630232\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4383.309980130019\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4382.101538374112\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4381.97391265962\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4381.915203320725\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4381.896325864607\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4381.891060082115\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4381.890062203701\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4381.889871481156\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4381.889871481151\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4381.889871481156\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8460>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51010.00488631862\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50606.02124631834\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49751.390450125284\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11235.267794053914\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8349.236660396506\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6355.580654754374\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6059.742098300843\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6048.594730940816\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6001.346003360645\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4401.396768192686\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5939.60710012235\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4391.283226199079\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4384.767099312406\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4383.748200155942\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4383.602100111306\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4383.528207682077\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4383.506232894126\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4383.500890108892\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4383.500304569309\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4383.500235066505\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4383.500205653545\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4383.500205653554\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4383.500205653545\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9450>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67593.1186447097\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 47314.45024659301\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49411.495692136035\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11358.51415107393\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8250.54393870565\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6357.4099786915895\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6064.857387003833\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6052.940309529415\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5999.36777213619\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4403.774996260345\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5938.419522807454\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4392.603752732317\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4387.578471592055\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4386.43967029468\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4386.307615627193\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4386.241623064988\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4386.228098002588\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4386.22434774881\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4386.22424175301\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4386.224189713164\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4386.224186822492\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4386.224186822488\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4386.224186822492\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A41C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 47407.77622005841\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41294.775692105424\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50767.83589464525\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11025.241331088593\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8512.557747658115\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6360.041521435592\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6068.151656678192\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6057.1532608087855\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6029.471232827527\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4407.203015588851\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5952.042481512895\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4400.011476497108\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4390.755158132946\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4389.618379937695\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4389.486996470281\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4389.413636486567\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4389.389615513946\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4389.382402872257\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4389.38116363476\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4389.381100600269\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4389.381098968617\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4389.381098968624\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4389.381098968617\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABFD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50891.62468560002\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40107.10913977772\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50356.85446326171\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10806.431729832506\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8775.722583848818\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6365.210125427744\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6070.346556453297\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6062.377123127839\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6036.339214579099\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4413.08982834499\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5957.851874077285\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4407.293358738556\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4391.54497362856\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4391.256304104092\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4391.214151091799\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4391.094958309268\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4391.057891647181\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4391.041409706803\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4391.037130591607\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4391.036450480724\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4391.036442106734\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4391.036442106728\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4391.036442106734\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928D30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67785.34948937452\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42862.48432680792\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50017.75516360831\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11412.537485987254\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8244.510483605001\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6368.915504198792\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6071.971652106795\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6060.432100621396\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6013.349570287015\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4409.749670563909\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5951.975252037844\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4396.497871525213\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4393.008648582931\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4392.814399503787\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4392.632289560452\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4392.578454115692\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4392.55595219773\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4392.5482272344925\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4392.547237363382\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4392.547226162769\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4392.547207189731\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4392.547207189739\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4392.547207189731\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67440.98654623074\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 43210.522185477355\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49757.041949421546\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11595.408995611662\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8122.307176652987\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6371.981268864006\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6075.1178370594735\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6063.712782604845\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6013.604418070624\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4411.357706335999\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5955.127378239224\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4401.143879671355\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4395.527554501761\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4394.32664109426\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4394.200605286096\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4394.13537581032\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4394.116921281249\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4394.111225285352\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4394.109921500309\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4394.109798239667\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4394.109798239679\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4394.109798239667\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABFD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52194.39462789476\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50818.780103955796\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 49233.85705757042\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11711.10843246605\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8013.824838823113\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6372.668468354226\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6078.378949231007\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6067.897883586367\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6018.430640521131\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4414.785253238309\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5958.547037607594\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4411.8371637340215\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4396.121203931185\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4395.805060946127\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4395.717173685407\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4395.636275458731\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4395.609741753319\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4395.601103453229\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4395.599708715235\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4395.599615094138\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4395.599607575813\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4395.599607575824\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4395.599607575813\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB2E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66828.34266471589\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50858.28731396298\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48361.058528165246\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11846.964517574988\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7947.531060912332\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6374.523918081202\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6082.789653668336\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6073.5351360739805\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6029.5123533805745\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4415.341224930584\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5965.869038139348\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4401.690362598744\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4397.772664965441\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4397.542653123725\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4397.434653651531\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4397.315585398552\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4397.279688563195\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4397.262302839923\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4397.259715616456\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4397.259373021045\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4397.2593320701935\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4397.259332070216\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4397.2593320701935\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABFD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66490.52480464395\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50917.46522331603\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48761.20805756761\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11950.463642502851\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7898.591847524216\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6376.150780294338\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6085.956121709962\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6079.018302155109\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6035.037057316123\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4416.933831135262\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5965.679274565314\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4407.191119487794\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4399.445230820977\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4399.0259947260865\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4398.908278712668\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4398.825521022516\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4398.778026082902\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4398.7685499462195\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4398.76721815515\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4398.766739919541\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4398.76673092208\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4398.766729936552\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4398.766729936552\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A88B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66399.28386671352\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50936.976193038776\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48781.44304443475\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 12068.268208937272\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7815.5611051500855\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6377.032692984025\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6089.942541335976\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6089.725955687102\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6029.168317399497\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4424.069693487446\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4551.8372646123735\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4420.034833072494\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4401.097910952106\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4400.859816428678\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4400.7148342742385\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4400.627264185585\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4400.581451840169\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4400.573582882267\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4400.572307267721\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4400.571659513721\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4400.571645764609\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4400.5716432500885\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4400.571643250092\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4400.5716432500885\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28C10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46969.58502977596\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 50986.84425848906\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48742.01656312059\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 12039.935974186232\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7842.481943156414\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6379.60022850638\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6093.460998261848\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6091.757830125715\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6032.786206531509\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4425.615597345712\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4563.547961023105\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4422.257253290418\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4403.2248422131\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4402.9454298027995\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4402.802387183822\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4402.71538359994\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4402.664668434907\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4402.655669258675\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4402.65457145674\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4402.653747374403\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4402.653735702851\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4402.653732879326\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4402.653732879329\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4402.653732879326\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66329.4885500046\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42615.46684649166\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 48554.48496422093\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11988.856486288678\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7904.70861915899\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6385.225205164999\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6096.1692723378055\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6090.406922723514\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6040.0596785349535\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4423.877222935878\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5975.332150351501\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4423.847373171464\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4404.964873022793\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4404.6807759986405\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4404.484655853208\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4404.372484621434\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4404.317792093477\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4404.2952890862225\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4404.287036178096\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4404.286591156946\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4404.286476720878\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4404.2864755726905\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4404.286475572691\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4404.2864755726905\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B850>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62204.47511665557\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51124.80290300565\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44617.151900345816\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11549.135793669975\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8150.198512671426\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6379.432843463599\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6094.150121887476\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6080.985030825438\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6026.1460469608965\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4429.6409611426225\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5964.10490476425\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4416.44275673009\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4413.0264909252655\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4412.117082876761\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4411.958638758331\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4411.89185647515\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4411.866581517605\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4411.8602065308405\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4411.859256212672\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4411.858933251135\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4411.858911834675\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4411.858911834669\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4411.858911834675\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C284C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61822.67519012563\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51176.04054263272\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44548.579926679966\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11706.182394643809\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8526.319948491386\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6440.232159688281\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6111.900473336519\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6103.3968315113925\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6057.582275099864\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4431.622764865151\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5978.655934137558\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4417.571078079078\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4414.307910192516\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4414.397552622912\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4413.935043059033\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4413.884002115365\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4413.869431181642\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4413.8679422804325\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4413.867673125858\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4413.8676695287795\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4413.8676695287895\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4413.8676695287795\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A2C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69719.08933810823\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50550.148766334874\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 40283.78986273221\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 37343.35178873765\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7099.850442257642\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6277.633920290769\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 5985.588212270807\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 5861.5973548278225\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4441.4661784000255\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5965.056127999689\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4463.590431372726\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4420.917719750374\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4419.796917444741\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4419.421974384295\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4418.958898324258\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4418.934274799377\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4418.933543089366\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4418.933231023937\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4418.933219141787\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4418.9332175755535\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4418.933217575557\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4418.9332175755535\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29A80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61284.533913978885\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51211.69931515702\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44715.81910209886\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8385.950759721565\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 10830.893071600018\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6416.182176289846\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6120.163126794024\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6070.786572169891\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4634.505708597366\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 6022.262953978832\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4443.031323217765\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4421.8491044023485\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4424.173387736665\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4421.794221559321\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4421.122922749724\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4420.989640378647\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4420.933042994602\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4420.9251989709865\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4420.924229096233\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4420.924162130688\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4420.924153275159\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4420.924153275171\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4420.924153275159\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE800>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 48739.00343509002\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41909.99710279281\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44658.27031100918\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10837.03813673036\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9075.628089787597\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6451.155033221541\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6119.535267212466\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6069.927402782587\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6089.110246138796\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4453.220270247076\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6012.415258602333\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4441.120274575\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4423.595448297889\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4423.401841919717\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4423.199027718358\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4423.145728636716\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4423.123056543594\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4423.120104208694\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4423.119989521911\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4423.119932074773\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4423.119932074771\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4423.119932074773\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE2F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 45806.35482322581\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42693.88975503693\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44444.557537395354\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10201.81398773505\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9443.607276512827\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6452.774701721084\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6122.655435318099\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6075.3431910771415\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6078.208541152217\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4449.3440031820855\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6001.038701970172\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4430.543543766112\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4425.5386794227215\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4425.2366897248185\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4425.090360105998\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4425.031235505843\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4425.019507697616\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4425.017809276245\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4425.0177360293055\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4425.017728058262\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4425.017728058268\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4425.017728058262\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928A30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46761.69929965742\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 45992.179299721276\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44448.04529571156\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11375.939155751257\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8706.230408542498\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6463.252873175414\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6129.078515133659\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6076.574935046515\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6080.664800614051\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4447.957675625659\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 5996.132507599266\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4429.013480469907\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4427.700943630858\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4427.380288151875\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4427.2448844065675\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4427.20744539991\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4427.1965759643645\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4427.195761993078\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4427.195638062796\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4427.195637257393\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4427.195637257393\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A60E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 43529.68204127667\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51315.20399232986\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44322.29049852055\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11136.539646779176\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8886.687317377327\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6461.442195906932\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6128.308878037552\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6075.761300243751\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6089.45043068124\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4457.278149291127\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6005.928916817156\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4439.810345715263\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4429.50895834523\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4429.303822618831\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4429.119429291191\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4429.068657015372\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4429.05212367778\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4429.049245628839\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4429.0491332254305\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4429.049112995279\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4429.049112995282\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4429.049112995279\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46326.89689795727\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51343.73485890172\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44189.363120208836\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11096.580007609444\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8926.138480214278\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6466.247224766337\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6131.924612292374\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6078.1059573893\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6096.013618246883\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4460.933549699333\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6013.793189753342\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4448.266531892214\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4431.5080008168825\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4431.323096288471\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4431.131767342862\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4431.0832089296555\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4431.064310002268\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4431.061696826667\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4431.061639558709\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4431.06162829473\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4431.06162797296\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4431.06162797296\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929DB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60952.51986924691\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51368.30217009813\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44492.098349171225\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10952.139831350501\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9051.019049711487\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6468.645805156089\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6134.73397597283\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6082.573916293972\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6104.200470407321\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4464.466230323594\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6025.30056849036\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4451.840252004038\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4434.0568962306725\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4433.871741441729\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4433.675296210311\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4433.625014635457\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4433.605154889101\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4433.6017706912535\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4433.6017436595575\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4433.601725889095\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4433.601725889084\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4433.601725889095\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A60E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46282.22260789083\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42180.18235514658\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44186.550652316466\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9582.34216333877\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9863.48670261779\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6468.4870740937695\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6139.468612772953\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6090.332378368579\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6084.27971509803\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4455.992519017842\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4452.712505182889\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4569.720524997161\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4436.56369102601\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4436.243681527394\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4435.472840905116\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4435.346871327544\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4435.330924672808\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4435.328463349717\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4435.328371303285\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4435.3283652996215\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4435.32836529959\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4435.3283652996215\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5090>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 44137.11504440458\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42145.34105215195\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 43950.982959919595\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10773.954121513725\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9168.320792372075\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6477.156787451343\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6137.461589674085\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6086.588994548105\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6104.724650677044\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4468.172824003142\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6026.88354844632\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4455.2681135667335\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4437.483648655061\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4437.304301866435\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4437.103552035224\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4437.0509111748015\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4437.0312764122\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4437.027867383917\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4437.0277555070825\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4437.027718037818\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4437.027717595734\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4437.027717595734\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB640>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 47829.70282123633\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42094.772701793256\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 43618.753894567184\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10686.900405848248\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9221.452815268902\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6482.073620213303\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6138.337610494952\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6088.024415793048\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6104.322792531167\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4469.482646660022\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6027.78742525863\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4456.510758606921\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4439.137293758413\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4438.958611116994\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4438.756184028832\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4438.703319155655\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4438.684065343047\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4438.680783914873\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4438.680601665421\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4438.680571545887\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4438.6805703186\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4438.680570318615\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4438.6805703186\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA620>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60136.87268867888\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41517.631595257364\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 43918.816380033524\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10837.428127834864\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9144.865747556874\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6486.621645171001\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6141.625663493427\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6091.120855601536\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6109.7630583223145\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4472.202647333115\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6032.987893534102\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4458.899918540073\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4441.4953777800465\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4441.314111950088\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4441.11670270994\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4441.066340729241\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4441.047129293798\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4441.043894158149\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4441.043812962342\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4441.04377937843\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4441.043778937415\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4441.043778937415\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61171.70665665932\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51502.106879124454\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44646.32589097554\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11241.638758916144\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8868.65444089841\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6490.099689676541\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6150.219208028417\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6097.755303935761\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6107.054648061694\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4471.301469870663\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6022.6392893964585\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4456.788432510957\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4445.658770216359\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4445.4702808373895\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4445.267887497885\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4445.204510338479\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4445.182308093438\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4445.177641115743\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4445.177410359455\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4445.177295931634\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4445.177295931632\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4445.177295931634\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E410>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60809.54407095738\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41967.5816861592\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44427.48759318081\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8897.60005332677\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 10357.570879067014\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6477.652246942954\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6153.397804825278\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6102.424694205775\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 5726.923221190037\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 6049.379685690577\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4470.34880113616\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4448.350654734901\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4450.446263532984\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4447.330688035283\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4447.037254706934\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4446.957657818124\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4446.939964788423\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4446.938025475988\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4446.937967815786\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4446.93796692257\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4446.93796692257\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9390>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 44895.11965402648\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 41743.13139977977\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44304.66426935891\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11790.125264877104\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 8713.59009320539\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 6477.6478304392485\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6147.28582770064\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6093.258010629415\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 6118.892018045005\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4493.272490376222\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 6036.6525387357915\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4466.239871626983\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4449.34862247698\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4449.171257907932\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4448.9996294890225\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4448.943735666724\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4448.923359651131\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4448.915917108514\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4448.914018868696\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4448.913989001067\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4448.9139865494735\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4448.91398654948\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4448.9139865494735\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929330>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61164.67787714613\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51539.16348761156\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44799.530998951275\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11776.79071658625\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 8735.411780446902\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 6481.215479093549\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6151.606762718324\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6098.165479847538\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 6124.056882395566\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4496.750361264057\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 6042.196708799101\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4469.129423364615\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4452.13179072408\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4451.959462035617\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4451.789244590365\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4451.734872560002\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4451.71492297507\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4451.705656280371\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4451.704847942909\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4451.704829931064\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4451.704828121199\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4451.704828121201\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4451.704828121199\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928D30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 44066.75205728769\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51553.99937546119\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44765.51706011113\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11898.527958712813\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 8660.111014807793\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 6486.9401608866865\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6155.766717708179\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6100.971495239564\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 6128.381643014007\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4496.294618168467\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 6044.763659677659\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4470.762016406472\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4453.952648371304\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4453.775482425093\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4453.609387463723\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4453.560127640264\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4453.540452476421\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4453.5328751292145\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4453.531858442699\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4453.531840875343\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4453.531839150048\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4453.531839150052\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4453.531839150048\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39299C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60632.29707222188\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51562.76858427335\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44593.7931917985\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11375.960863716275\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8921.88854595476\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6483.600931624269\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6157.7979608760925\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6108.937394904137\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6126.629285282061\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4496.627228576713\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6048.433038562303\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4474.319083664102\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4455.768217750264\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4455.6099828626375\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4455.427071372286\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4455.367950199199\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4455.345410691477\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4455.3396317032375\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4455.339575758066\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4455.339368552526\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4455.33936785381\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4455.33936785381\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD300>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 47140.706348758795\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42680.26993436595\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 45228.49423875082\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11304.592065378562\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8969.210346625136\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6484.711631767961\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6162.798267117327\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6114.126428393631\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6130.959841018508\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4499.009418158627\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6051.868899993305\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4477.780809158928\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4458.912473988097\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4458.757530941326\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4458.576711131862\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4458.516276436246\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4458.493922476877\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4458.488000791196\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4458.487955127707\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4458.487768537001\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4458.487768140097\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4458.487768140097\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD240>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60982.73557420644\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 40897.79117312433\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 45058.67061074237\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11685.523434646977\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8693.933697018037\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6505.147620277499\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6170.737208661189\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6118.442510740197\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6122.048664816699\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4469.26345909564\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6053.068067273008\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4461.33064228596\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4460.472782004514\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4460.452150524685\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4460.212405629758\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4460.173979901869\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4460.165080913448\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4460.163897602666\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4460.163748943035\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4460.163745855752\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4460.163745855745\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4460.163745855752\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28430>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 44834.00707497736\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51628.770997539425\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 45610.18079579242\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11350.28050557951\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8963.629166221974\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6493.969842201195\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6169.492337790452\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6118.291650441746\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6137.565071325742\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4502.097483453232\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6058.224367490359\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4482.917671029427\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4463.6378245017\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4463.480839991266\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4463.3036584683205\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4463.246659067377\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4463.225530365622\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4463.220143034035\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4463.220090576843\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4463.220063024635\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4463.2200622894015\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4463.2200622894015\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A9B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 44863.773129121284\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51630.66720217758\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 45990.31058465464\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11586.831704622078\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8798.02826884786\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6499.775101492508\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6178.85734627752\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6126.864597551115\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6136.732984465864\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4495.304496474642\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6051.61848450903\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4484.458446008544\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4467.997767475499\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4467.876892552167\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4467.650791209407\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4467.581198146248\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4467.555085270091\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4467.547495641624\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4467.546869291045\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4467.546696082543\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4467.546693453371\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4467.546693453387\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4467.546693453371\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BD30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52426.982019704315\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51687.431659845985\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 46537.94859101085\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11915.121562006945\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 8678.086579352916\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 6508.8833942346555\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6182.484052876805\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6125.445613958202\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 6154.170172944528\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4509.716099984468\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 6064.755339130906\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4488.344120786496\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4470.866580487884\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4470.683831435268\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4470.524131290714\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4470.481644384852\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4470.463123322688\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4470.458904677129\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4470.457809190088\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4470.457771652016\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4470.457769711372\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4470.457769711378\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4470.457769711372\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AD40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62282.58453576446\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51707.917986184315\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 46230.49207533593\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 12125.058629113877\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 8582.752363592946\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 6509.895910680566\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6184.679104960333\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6128.615369715216\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 6152.2754641041265\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4509.460366040812\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 6062.546177927915\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4489.5440411775235\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4472.7053774498\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4472.516924568068\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4472.362875775506\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4472.3172288454025\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4472.299026169443\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4472.294900103016\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4472.2935783979265\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4472.293495819527\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4472.293493597261\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4472.293493597268\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4472.293493597261\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B880>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 45950.903415099805\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51724.20084621002\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 46781.820012920456\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11837.448760127698\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 8758.250291513912\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 6508.522252829234\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6187.407078835464\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6133.690128961388\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 6158.8100528392215\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4518.81736993463\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 6073.795228448329\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4493.299570721812\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4475.441303494057\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4475.266900119128\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4475.105808223333\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4475.0540121351305\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4475.034674306831\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4475.02649231183\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4475.025822498821\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4475.025806446352\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4475.025804908055\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4475.025804908057\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4475.025804908055\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF6D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 46076.73112260565\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 45361.87359770978\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 47148.26612594296\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11911.405352189648\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 8724.34577986266\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 6511.104864046301\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6193.840937068101\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6139.34057252341\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 6164.523731146237\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4522.217261011393\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 6079.030682653919\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4497.607054539152\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4480.241246338731\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4480.05624986124\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4479.887958574689\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4479.837016125553\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4479.817436719982\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4479.810246742834\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4479.809342604633\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4479.809325566226\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4479.809323636461\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4479.809323636461\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4479.809323636461\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE050>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 43909.48589402989\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42272.53538074145\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 47153.253873532114\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 12157.021083413812\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 8621.305147528794\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 6515.066953018695\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6202.276003001865\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6147.039985522975\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 6168.820410461099\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 4522.879396746272\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 6082.356312005209\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4501.576691148863\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4484.638766860039\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4484.439642829908\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4484.263516234741\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4484.224757109125\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4484.20635060146\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4484.204046044829\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4484.202590088333\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4484.202573646158\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4484.202571515258\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4484.202571515257\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4484.202571515258\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29000>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72786.1157153435\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50854.57813633243\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44229.55559355818\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 36651.34393251704\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7307.271487636271\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6369.051302653236\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6101.716698464216\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 5683.554097920444\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6021.616809729872\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4506.644739509611\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5724.732184240933\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4489.391972594061\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4488.231390317329\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4490.337306937679\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4487.830190399903\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4487.829170295219\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4487.82832472814\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4487.828284036217\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4487.828271135075\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 4487.828271135074\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4487.828271135075\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929330>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63972.31167204378\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 51932.01318601843\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 47390.390310669616\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11362.047090776545\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9051.48407542803\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6508.278032184537\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6208.7197736347825\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6162.85237207466\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6173.093130743748\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4539.734908713837\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 6090.0969592628135\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4508.7905954957705\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4490.299543143394\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4490.132404954365\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4489.921927779707\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4489.854450404979\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4489.8298081010125\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4489.823149036268\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4489.821156740349\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4489.821148740015\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4489.821148137555\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4489.821148137555\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CED10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73567.96792235003\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 51401.93334635363\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43475.45571437858\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 10539.891416728256\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 6885.435621689647\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6332.2009770482655\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6221.9108798082625\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6156.058253838404\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4519.538334614419\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6044.558420884814\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4506.601373872594\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4498.23464883017\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4497.349775679447\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4500.516422235507\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4495.058890375417\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4494.338556431036\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4494.333961491392\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4494.333282279753\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4494.333188786053\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4494.333188122854\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4494.333188122854\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29E40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65921.32130942753\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 51188.20159295373\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44009.103654932114\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 8808.429704285987\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6379.02880752466\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6228.540278678147\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6173.8847808730325\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 11682.485360376493\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4541.202957962389\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6045.791181770384\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 11337.87521853233\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4501.616307981245\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4605.004972187121\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4501.122315304125\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4499.627293203193\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4499.593336780956\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 4499.5923491542135\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 4499.592290184586\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 4499.592226437504\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 4499.59222603866\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4499.59222603866\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929DB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66575.9680355369\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49902.71357611325\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44494.23689052152\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 8811.181314804231\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6143.191393652347\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 28242.262762417082\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6236.150762232046\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 4850.425340427601\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 6007.148241589146\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 4522.122042089641\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4504.1813356568\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    136,   Neg. LLF: 5870.946949532226\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    147,   Neg. LLF: 4553.758094861135\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4502.981726216665\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4502.852489060945\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4502.83872179201\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 4502.8382614593465\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 4502.838133402893\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 4502.838128569879\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    219,   Neg. LLF: 4502.838128569865\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4502.838128569879\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 219\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928D30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75115.44847561223\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49775.21569676279\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43156.49299522704\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 8898.955689713033\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 7646.028407655428\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6356.54175115993\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6185.289944290547\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6093.290486184081\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4535.345173157381\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5964.202572134986\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4716.11574510033\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4508.5975684743225\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5963.610541106875\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4548.464005722439\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4508.192956784182\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4507.699273882847\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4507.638443312945\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4507.627614411733\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4507.624661495707\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4507.624445862718\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4507.624431338585\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4507.624431338585\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4507.624431338585\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA6E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75593.69471090593\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 51469.774564850864\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44050.05010400509\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 8870.73817992752\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 7269.419763600394\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6374.033130808459\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6191.270756570546\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6165.417290350604\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4544.915975112236\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6008.830218277924\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4649.58592010643\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4511.962829466398\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4573.771372545653\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4516.2108642239255\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4510.952918818885\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4510.5642957218315\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4510.548912668289\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4510.547696391675\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4510.547111906077\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4510.547103420451\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4510.547103420438\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4510.547103420451\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4F40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75740.68592790022\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50902.585154074986\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42405.368332777856\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 8977.968898310664\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 7870.552276713278\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6360.610877428597\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6200.399140672489\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 5911.735523997975\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4589.758140627323\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4523.513185767173\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4541.757682780887\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4514.091472482989\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5934.752570299766\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4527.969579705414\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4525.668593808863\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4513.259366246524\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4513.25109527511\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4513.246358489747\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4513.245885812646\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4513.245814534492\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4513.245810287907\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4513.245810287926\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4513.245810287907\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70273.04726332298\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 51680.43827485148\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41850.24481628534\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9025.18211430225\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 7954.906476640577\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6362.641190377716\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6209.924635704263\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 5071.3114484437065\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5107.516940177644\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4539.613986278189\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5516.407902483968\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4516.616020727988\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5996.914591999178\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4585.307104373685\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4515.885462304158\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4515.764460880129\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4515.7488675056675\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4515.738609513017\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4515.737675578089\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4515.737547984423\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4515.737543127431\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4515.737542440131\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4515.737542440131\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387FBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64301.9753868102\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 51656.801180320224\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41697.71019111306\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9051.449681716686\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 7995.667144902403\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6366.358932556814\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6215.446009609261\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 4985.74938810628\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6133.416442810389\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4542.216991169972\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4912.401044348624\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4519.255180327259\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5994.205461851706\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4588.653398235916\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4518.515839240516\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4518.44710343566\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4518.432532814893\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4518.422752019609\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4518.422316424221\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4518.42223988283\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4518.422238126339\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    240,   Neg. LLF: 4518.42223812634\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4518.422238126339\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 240\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387FD00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67413.91896292874\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49206.4569250426\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41869.32230637131\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9065.802678851373\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 8028.207219724913\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6370.485418716167\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6221.109618840323\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 4949.714338823793\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6141.70102775675\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4545.341303520645\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4910.392503009431\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4522.173481110705\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5992.587011496542\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4591.760423020582\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4521.401043752387\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4521.349650818531\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4521.353369701659\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4521.3329224151585\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4521.332640515862\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4521.332594947049\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4521.332594021539\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4521.332594021539\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F8E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64457.489829845814\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 51705.293384641445\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41482.44964387383\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9071.260496733952\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 8053.7471487723415\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6372.7240316553925\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6226.9935566243275\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 4902.718603441708\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6147.38813277516\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4547.734311860204\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4911.867975656383\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4524.4805147078605\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5995.799602521911\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4595.908794003299\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4523.725192809245\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4523.664821094849\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4523.690079430586\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4523.650515939932\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4523.650314439694\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4523.650285023334\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4523.650284174312\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4523.650284174312\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72554.82204170179\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49557.72806561577\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41671.239202264245\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9081.906732126376\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 8039.19813642053\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6376.01596617848\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6229.132921026474\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 4932.006826712388\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6148.98196613182\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4550.162953445491\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4915.088133075884\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4527.02422411472\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 6000.0012260849335\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4597.1749057339275\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4526.245482218756\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4526.185367582697\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4526.185352927278\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4526.180123055783\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4526.179360237557\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4526.179335970094\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4526.179332902677\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4526.179332902678\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4526.179332902677\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9AB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76714.31220163895\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50355.539539001096\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41709.59598023764\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9109.132976617493\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 8083.060828179472\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6402.640098463486\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6243.030872428601\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 4922.914360532432\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6171.325425391493\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4555.739857233973\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4914.56941684833\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4532.103716111062\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 6010.116276234251\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4598.507109503391\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4531.427298826965\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4531.375774491898\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4531.393571425232\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4531.3471662879265\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4531.346815512945\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4531.346787786113\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4531.346785992654\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4531.346785992655\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4531.346785992654\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64990.86839959213\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 51971.22253657936\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42414.46608778763\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9059.375127605372\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 7961.414768591753\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6400.7592893762885\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6238.41153380256\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 5283.266564946398\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5141.095711232789\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4559.028601765354\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5679.155190840156\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4534.667762769397\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 6023.15565734027\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4583.458919229262\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4534.014593168038\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4533.81548480989\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4533.787768487521\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4533.786335984118\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4533.785663361648\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4533.785648384289\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4533.785644105208\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4533.78564410521\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4533.785644105208\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8850>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76777.55714739017\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49117.57702470926\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41027.894333956705\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9177.953320242035\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 8188.608633126534\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6399.338738994863\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6284.7240232910935\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 5147.873045609908\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6195.404941843632\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4904.994082514626\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4570.001954306668\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4538.079314089062\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5312.520601922184\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4566.5400311507055\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4537.757398049003\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4537.404490351192\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4537.394857471978\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4537.384028286268\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4537.383352421815\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4537.382576874248\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4537.382535156184\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4537.382531120229\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    250,   Neg. LLF: 4537.382531120216\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4537.382531120229\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 250\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB340>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76892.02079327397\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50111.5922518453\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41395.87348313953\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9146.818034636493\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 8175.04737780654\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6414.052135005937\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6280.2594469467\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 5064.367132015076\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6168.219782004536\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4905.34331891034\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4565.84195141419\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4540.755883224262\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 6035.68231333072\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4565.328581870014\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4540.52521445545\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4540.077633843439\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4540.071593247142\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4540.056955706249\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4540.0560176854615\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4540.0557050018415\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4540.05566774565\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4540.055665572165\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    250,   Neg. LLF: 4540.055665572161\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4540.055665572165\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 250\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A890>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76550.61961947821\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52054.841188427614\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 39741.724071347395\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9379.023245009386\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 8251.168899209422\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 12181.853130023577\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6359.306756457099\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6187.30155006034\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6136.021474704217\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4560.026191549534\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4583.798597828038\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4554.57401039734\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4543.283016076266\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4543.948100728741\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4542.4816842716955\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4542.235092494002\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4542.240989014577\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4542.229185946299\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4542.229161907189\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4542.229158424261\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4542.229157091213\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4542.229157091213\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4542.229157091213\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29B70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76918.59410295569\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50886.14151072234\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 39787.76654237234\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9447.316428162547\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8682.722440352905\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6445.880485596461\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6316.185588452117\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6077.291818874837\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6157.385379443532\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4560.566553810695\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5971.873010897907\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4546.807668610381\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4561.064814059788\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4545.337107532238\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4545.05986212281\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4545.028810727342\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4545.027308530354\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4545.026919451571\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4545.026894795851\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4545.026893380665\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4545.026893380667\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4545.026893380665\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 77545.75419086486\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52661.907148882485\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 39471.08317032839\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9601.286801496894\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8689.32469383342\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6451.132677167725\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6331.654727179015\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6064.448091697917\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6192.600821154203\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4565.918885691406\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5955.007586773201\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4549.506784676208\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4561.519921317833\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4562.309127651038\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4548.1161026388745\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4548.0138281817435\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4548.002354729395\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4548.0017967879\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4548.001764785227\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4548.001756252826\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4548.001756252839\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4548.001756252826\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E650>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 78769.8771678306\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53416.956131239574\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7334.188083972949\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 10355.152874407468\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6848.909097680649\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6459.986296295909\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 5551.520691303536\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 13378.826689235812\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 6125.984379604964\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 5016.318980459506\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4575.898296188977\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4554.486521330639\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    147,   Neg. LLF: 4583.989145834591\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 4602.560407939591\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4573.126961161319\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4556.443064138337\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4553.1759494842745\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4553.17285619547\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4553.164909905679\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4553.163595630127\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4553.163579928099\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4553.163578065231\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4553.163578065232\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4553.163578065231\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CF40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76207.74299975058\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55363.79807317916\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 7276.1746863416165\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     48,   Neg. LLF: 10663.842124394612\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 23676.903543250653\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6478.344588345715\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 5668.902795044662\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 6300.892038571428\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 6149.6936966731555\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 4620.215550057952\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4573.780787209751\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4559.1819235971925\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    147,   Neg. LLF: 4579.642456607265\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    158,   Neg. LLF: 4635.871070723842\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4580.4448883597415\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4559.496730447623\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4557.918031623545\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4557.926833321519\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4557.906941208449\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4557.906426906067\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4557.906408434943\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4557.906405025274\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4557.906405025277\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4557.906405025274\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 15274.594465304479\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53159.93386843419\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 39868.43538511113\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6813.792450607044\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6508.581481423589\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6334.8664306931005\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6064.358251540632\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6575.777596064533\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4592.601324582543\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5964.108304322357\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4564.920575729423\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4563.281824849318\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5986.733447769036\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4562.2515345047195\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4562.239161073169\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4562.237717024496\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4562.235201361492\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4562.235093174446\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4562.235018470694\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4562.235015709579\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4562.235015155379\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4562.235015155379\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB7C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 15144.82123951988\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53289.285178940336\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 43608.12116075254\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6822.953409312906\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6505.142656398495\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6337.736433508708\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6121.00924698798\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6454.850551725362\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4596.334860416808\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5999.073012355957\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4568.511784653092\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4565.953620285737\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4599.082991040537\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4565.9479185557375\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4565.137769904619\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4565.1092193111945\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4565.106727054774\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4565.106166245376\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4565.106149721822\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4565.106146150055\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4565.106146150056\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4565.106146150055\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B340>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 15167.65644200548\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53196.5027865265\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44459.93057803559\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6827.754238288732\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6513.372695274552\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6335.235669126337\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6111.86005883369\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6485.8796797943005\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4600.052684592716\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6001.830083631332\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4571.644839812311\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4569.182699459373\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4611.141055422307\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4568.723428912847\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4568.381785169778\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4568.332776008787\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4568.3287386079355\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4568.327840626748\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4568.327811783488\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4568.3278045888665\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4568.327804588866\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4568.3278045888665\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A200>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 15207.959876207653\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53177.49398577167\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44413.25612374324\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6828.2038874931795\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 30712.594551356393\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6410.5563785006\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6151.270828025874\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4752.861769652245\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4591.57271539909\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5966.696209816218\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4575.49087270127\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4572.138744115466\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5175.239840805258\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4570.779328392044\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4570.7357881031585\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4570.731665910024\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4570.731120176741\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4570.731113333189\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4570.731112456372\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4570.731112456372\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABC70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71089.52400132979\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52901.130994834966\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 51261.35792413175\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 10485.462861901166\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9960.172871057232\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7776.176592419397\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 6408.579894539955\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 6358.135498316426\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 6311.091837928334\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4618.729824306509\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4579.344353207765\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4592.247946576039\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4627.471097490161\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4573.6067443903885\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4573.414592663278\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4573.311805116904\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4573.228602968726\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4573.204662629677\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4573.203864673083\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4573.20373303182\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4573.203725483038\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4573.203725483032\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4573.203725483038\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA620>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50735.07907337129\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 42908.54234798664\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50833.29928614649\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10419.38436943739\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9904.153870116363\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6575.576162858493\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6331.063809789945\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6290.605581197328\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6280.051077494225\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4594.008626393506\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4593.161661962256\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 6143.8288090330725\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4576.1245283754\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4575.937567967441\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4575.974941062406\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4575.706519789716\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4575.69004895504\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4575.688889113726\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4575.688799242423\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4575.6887913807905\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4575.688791380791\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4575.6887913807905\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8EE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50717.212487275305\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 44617.91713472184\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51225.63136323738\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10404.936116857116\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9920.567357286094\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6582.21588293337\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6335.349952876355\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6296.402381498484\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6282.167160405822\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4597.05535209214\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4596.452285071461\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 6148.609265729759\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4579.009356609227\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4578.826845568603\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4578.798839282701\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4578.60264648548\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4578.590287654353\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4578.58921573108\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4578.589161557172\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4578.589159297858\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4578.589159297841\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4578.589159297858\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AE90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71552.51577884625\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50774.83295868298\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 51247.61723105646\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 10647.126989767099\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9943.308877229701\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7401.305485695353\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 6429.202920777372\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 6365.269514418433\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 6308.617964074916\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4618.128722192558\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4618.148433453265\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4609.370561396667\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4586.684152844013\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4583.795303487617\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4583.429278190044\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4583.180857930053\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4583.075081047733\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4583.043800630299\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4583.0322968751725\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4583.030679244439\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4583.030633403369\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4583.030632796932\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4583.030632796932\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29AB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 14908.24781031797\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53430.63105867083\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 45196.54641302521\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7404.2925175212495\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 6446.2651845452\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6027.584867025198\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 22765.765610263268\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6337.785556964934\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4632.2097164527695\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4588.9711627068855\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6165.985393998806\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4790.1843779216915\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4600.825817269906\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4587.926847217097\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4587.6543679562465\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4587.599203036173\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4587.598398365748\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4587.598368031069\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4587.598365180629\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4587.598365180615\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4587.598365180629\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A620>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 15047.886233831567\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53389.4037949232\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 45747.51383093418\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7179.74658007752\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6433.171346282259\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 5817.9238029837525\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 12553.434055048656\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6323.296572987307\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 37343.686139301106\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4611.870503114068\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6518.641081433107\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4599.95256832804\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4590.961267041995\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4606.176610335318\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4609.211027002541\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4590.63459858182\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4590.492917702217\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4590.4635561279265\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4590.462448041806\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4590.4624435539445\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4590.462443553973\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4590.4624435539445\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3B0D180>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52549.019324873276\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53064.00527513694\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51501.72141817417\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10742.495994016332\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9869.745022255502\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6608.63567253738\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6357.859020707005\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6318.314709663826\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6312.7325988194825\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4645.570929629854\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4610.178233052436\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 6192.7118840265\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4593.530634532426\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4593.120594693466\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4592.966390760914\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4592.839160718351\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4592.826198707324\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4592.817947560324\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4592.816091378574\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4592.816065243264\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4592.816064051058\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4592.81606405105\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4592.816064051058\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C6A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 51480.51613316623\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 46683.719390551094\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51384.78600615301\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10680.519565806837\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9894.359090075788\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6611.412764204255\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6359.340595221833\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6321.867384573741\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6314.742301969582\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4634.485372019101\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4612.435107847502\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 6189.051375504518\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4595.834110372703\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4595.539488086192\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4595.369537433697\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4595.3279602887\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4595.261034285872\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4595.254897417036\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4595.253995460572\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4595.25396244767\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4595.253960140599\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4595.253960140574\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4595.253960140599\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B1F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50668.68645010205\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53124.97285790706\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51159.11528026243\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10687.78741069381\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9895.148248060734\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6615.639640706622\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6362.940916566989\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6325.665659928462\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6318.326583111839\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4634.652328553138\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4614.755405041686\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 6193.162172682091\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4598.35402250679\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4598.065197389032\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4597.8926359157485\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4597.835525522456\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4597.785743631801\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4597.781804320859\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4597.781357999654\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4597.781340004941\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4597.781339425145\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4597.781339425145\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A680>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69994.27461641267\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 44557.248912198804\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 51329.3497944299\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 10890.72724299222\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9899.2119434516\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7116.361812625868\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 6453.747190499347\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 6376.93415089548\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 6324.937905116949\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4636.359471787933\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4639.15918441096\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4626.921346976165\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4605.699838211939\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4600.611166923055\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4600.339984399918\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4600.145844871489\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4600.080762076519\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4600.076187654758\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4600.071064057969\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4600.070918225772\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4600.070906575845\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4600.070906575855\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4600.070906575845\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA410>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72323.76851938537\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53527.38229116579\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45037.59133880844\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6651.8795084474805\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 6391.650077050694\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6517.363161769162\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6106.942415018664\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 24776.71913475435\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4620.555715658595\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6049.042902523798\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4606.37097519748\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4603.30688025569\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4627.017221257574\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4602.434942049136\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4602.407143148592\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4602.398241585524\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 4602.396614192369\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 4602.396357066231\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 4602.396347936325\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 4602.396347431589\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4602.396347431589\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA920>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 53735.88003795392\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53294.85789019837\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50868.78377515121\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10751.74055041205\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9899.503345060017\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6630.854999661086\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6373.477078454299\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6336.694756199398\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6329.410804218138\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4661.737097662499\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4623.910329181748\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 6206.617282630576\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4607.290925897588\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4606.887499553469\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4606.7459233898435\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4606.6593274287225\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4606.593934004755\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4606.586584555932\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4606.585700285625\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4606.5856384356675\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4606.585631370923\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4606.585631370918\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4606.585631370923\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAEC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 54205.96449143828\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 46861.468145196595\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 50954.56250769107\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11198.615872618826\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9735.32013333204\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6652.577958339018\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6381.064806662638\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6364.777947955145\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6341.262633498182\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 6328.920938128641\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4627.596389960895\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 6240.605579484167\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4609.705747294947\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4609.49591838546\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4609.235476512549\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4609.185135206606\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4609.173679780741\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4609.1729111853465\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4609.172833539047\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4609.172828416666\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4609.172828416677\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4609.172828416666\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9630>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 55303.649816988574\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 43148.956574122916\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 51913.95478868529\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 11301.16126003414\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9778.812636285871\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7814.371250585453\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 6482.326345043999\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 6405.260564672254\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 6334.926087695085\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4637.166203592069\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 6282.304104068682\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4632.625027801789\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4614.9021128891045\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4612.872631652041\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4612.5455744706505\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4612.438366950122\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4612.431003982372\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4612.419466533858\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4612.418753994256\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4612.4186196887495\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4612.418616183486\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4612.418616183488\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4612.418616183486\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B0D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70812.37699467395\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 45860.301669021836\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 52181.70055051477\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 11254.218716480682\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 9794.027726388598\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7035.526548866941\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 6487.602546537819\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 6393.936649527777\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 6348.905326762995\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4660.571997054889\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4621.862377000563\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4640.271539567192\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4635.304762571016\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4615.510053894259\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4615.427558614327\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4615.144834374796\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4615.094813231399\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4615.085560700944\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4615.084199977733\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4615.083928412706\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4615.083908475615\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4615.083907205003\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4615.083907205005\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4615.083907205003\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29BD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49140.77443414042\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 45319.64292520324\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51281.040821961076\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10803.908109547496\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9909.551961658033\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6650.2996527841115\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6389.050473218837\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6351.044183914327\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6345.0163156815015\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4655.187815769163\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4633.861102298726\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 6226.488217555908\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4617.976103001546\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4617.655677521042\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4617.524795675427\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4617.39340795724\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4617.3433858837725\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4617.3376946453845\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4617.337289102977\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4617.337286358825\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4617.337285829706\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4617.337285829706\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28BB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 49354.38593910384\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 43094.05942853145\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 52008.348373985384\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10823.022784468822\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9912.66966914483\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6657.80948948305\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6394.354272937071\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6356.439204420465\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6350.63198943076\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4655.24279373955\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4624.6602477672095\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 6232.919669299494\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4621.1253117549095\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4620.774632418566\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4620.594221816089\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4620.522869726234\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4620.513886340892\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4620.513156752482\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4620.513122727099\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4620.513120535836\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4620.51312053583\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4620.513120535836\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C288B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 52042.42153547116\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 46358.2573694634\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51971.81361060124\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11033.68226585404\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9848.698799252992\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6669.733555344642\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6399.459570874698\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6361.70911095906\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6358.655020373069\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4648.14904641158\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4643.280418966351\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4885.960824028285\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4623.953698183297\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4623.119466188985\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4622.842618623696\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4622.80908947589\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4622.803468629989\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4622.802507541876\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4622.80196755602\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4622.801966416279\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4622.801966416282\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4622.801966416279\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A4D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 50762.918687440695\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 44005.0924634518\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 51602.33746606849\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10790.352990559375\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9930.445422426648\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6664.0656262114135\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6399.00709021419\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6361.976008588684\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 6355.294500608252\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 4653.036815688077\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4705.784511375859\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4648.567929071348\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4625.4238942390175\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4625.206327938631\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4625.048436002901\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4624.991922932526\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4624.9592883188525\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4624.957172144936\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4624.95647402463\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4624.956437404384\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4624.956436816521\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4624.956436816521\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28D30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75390.48840694193\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53740.32156067877\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45657.85626509154\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6938.687520726484\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 6623.221166482232\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6431.878343149887\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6184.706065300042\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 7450.639749643422\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4654.527581827877\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5993.8024126004375\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4634.422171101973\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4629.290597285717\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6180.36793702694\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4627.463019751621\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4627.319639166879\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4627.30645135679\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 4627.29903360683\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 4627.2971121011715\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 4627.2970465032495\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 4627.297045077288\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    229,   Neg. LLF: 4627.297045077285\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4627.297045077288\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 229\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75091.10063802244\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53766.97674269778\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45567.75234955634\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6941.337548447283\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31035.829372849395\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7984.474792813879\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6311.9260028053595\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5058.637125808864\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4720.718677896358\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6070.352750276081\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4659.173214158322\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4677.3143248924125\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4631.0642811820835\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4646.227021285778\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4723.427369059705\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4629.562687244768\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4629.485331447414\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4629.477771979595\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4629.481576877113\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4629.437438149347\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4629.437432072423\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4629.437431486611\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4629.437431486611\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28700>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74959.40050925643\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53800.19657746269\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45385.964685636995\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6944.7814159359295\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31047.156330149133\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7999.48713859851\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6312.927113535292\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5156.468328476957\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4713.051676110414\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6082.294132503892\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4660.645606106982\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4678.820121812576\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4633.181351314159\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4648.3670322169\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4711.006241477777\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4631.687868269429\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4631.720840353619\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4631.718048650748\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4631.580018565493\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4631.577068065926\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4631.577051102338\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4631.577049400408\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 4631.57704940041\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4631.577049400408\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 253\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74942.76710926418\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53838.504740219716\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45419.68389154477\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6432.571137542275\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31498.64716722414\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7142.250079574494\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6378.650539425935\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 4869.172105786229\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 6352.137816940312\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 4653.474804179464\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5019.637305860737\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4635.1327841563525\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4653.432265315441\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4668.290069626064\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4633.8659026601745\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4633.757999414958\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4633.758588097861\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4633.744028092776\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4633.743562699538\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4633.743519972038\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4633.743519972028\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4633.743519972038\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A8F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75395.60967983847\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53857.38772001545\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45783.49768105555\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6953.450906789688\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31091.448749871\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8020.414204921113\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6319.135952401666\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5169.029214887682\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4710.464244652143\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6082.257620843412\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4665.3506880412915\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4649.6389576869005\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4638.2281559118\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4639.277644142614\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4639.815730264343\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4636.258432704851\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4636.346925075221\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4636.247157574619\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4636.238250930695\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4636.238008501454\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 4636.238003630968\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 4636.238003630954\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4636.238003630968\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C280A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75739.89661813373\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53875.191353448325\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46074.89635776807\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6958.392577915325\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31095.47620388543\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8042.2986331729035\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6323.14567451226\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5174.222279320929\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4706.2004580075045\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6077.774222506134\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4667.7890843992445\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4643.017920571012\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4641.285320162226\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4653.938826054175\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4638.925001460968\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4638.701437824972\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4638.689473678155\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4638.6781906646775\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4638.677864071009\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4638.677855113475\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4638.677855113482\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4638.677855113475\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C295D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75393.89838460428\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53839.44949086411\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 12331.541343668523\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6962.581484182719\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31204.37624070118\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8155.7528427783245\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6285.363459471873\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5835.228090443592\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4669.786749186108\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6192.258026217157\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4688.344837477442\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4644.0356111475085\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6356.871343920804\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4647.074347127558\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4642.820677785141\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4642.82141633763\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4642.79828424852\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4642.7974821036605\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4642.797473838744\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4642.797472828925\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4642.797472828907\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4642.797472828925\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28CD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 15588.33860005416\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53902.909506251985\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 46355.4336574308\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6964.511946385357\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 31096.39119834344\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6572.568310599408\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6262.365934357009\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4798.999244830841\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4666.597619986365\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5935.523472994036\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4647.298123270891\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4672.790119692027\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4708.392878543004\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4645.943459629724\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4645.709396980201\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4645.704992965502\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4645.704341796488\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4645.703355701626\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4645.703212150904\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4645.703189659544\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4645.703182337792\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    240,   Neg. LLF: 4645.703182337795\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4645.703182337792\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 240\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A380>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 15263.718174364341\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53893.365402501026\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 46565.64316559283\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6970.393971007819\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 31110.084928092678\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6593.589332301137\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6261.308403199367\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4835.704092344584\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4669.589629746834\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5956.103516266343\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4650.327025234818\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4681.569893132225\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4710.435089944732\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4648.870822364279\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4648.600845362622\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4648.617405486359\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4648.581643125783\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4648.580582457353\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4648.5804469759905\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4648.580401065778\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4648.5803997292705\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4648.580399729262\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4648.5803997292705\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAA40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76765.53220069894\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53930.08070520869\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 12796.946078446736\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6975.679178842854\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31249.844479924315\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8182.103604668612\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6295.969449399053\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6815.803297155493\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4671.890323084936\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5976.725828567935\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4672.2566278231925\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4652.774737038667\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4654.461960559627\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4650.724479356495\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4650.65032877058\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4650.6372781356295\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4650.63097984229\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4650.630850472414\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4650.630818040828\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4650.630816450129\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4650.630816450157\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4650.630816450129\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387DF90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74992.90828615875\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53975.87801866555\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 12888.100002671981\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6981.421923750742\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31261.52347358204\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8200.088052818472\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6300.4559053607245\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6138.309665923073\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4674.381104951875\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5982.13049835876\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4675.387802819712\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4655.540024730873\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4656.768535650501\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4653.51622192038\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4653.46086860857\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4653.448956789624\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4653.444625606018\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4653.444534735584\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4653.44451126516\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4653.444509629687\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4653.444509629715\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4653.444509629687\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E620>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 16949.41294371403\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53976.976036193286\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 47224.24753771342\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6982.708761709369\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6635.496485867883\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6451.959683187637\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6207.026166129033\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6684.325412166482\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4689.718575462079\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6102.088367505257\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4661.934076115274\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4657.318038260872\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6128.554648744499\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4656.189605636765\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4656.291978296151\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4656.111911594154\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4656.032963476061\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4656.032336518462\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4656.032151525162\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4656.032124356138\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4656.03212375683\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4656.03212375683\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C880>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76778.92830883744\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54007.8681970509\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 13059.815898866706\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6990.02152516852\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31298.522142449336\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8208.794319951565\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6306.848352940515\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6258.58633469523\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4678.877419450473\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5994.668557797693\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4680.307854755791\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4660.290965119037\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4662.454560274771\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4658.210905057684\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4658.150505608072\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4658.138165390121\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4658.134800561913\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4658.134632159741\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4658.134610748002\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4658.134607381287\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4658.134607381315\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4658.134607381287\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CC10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 15300.470552890656\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 53967.90133817492\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 47417.278397213755\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 6993.081959900136\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 31216.90200612764\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6583.153450810161\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6270.5058721506975\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4814.533430498303\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4683.190135698699\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5998.6681941848365\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4663.9384893916285\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4686.918670909401\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4725.088191989824\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4662.243043676521\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4661.9876254804985\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4662.015046183659\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4661.945430362192\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4661.935551065067\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4661.935385736762\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4661.935354322835\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4661.935341644046\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4661.935340245962\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    251,   Neg. LLF: 4661.935340245962\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4661.935340245962\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 251\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4F40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 77259.18456355148\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53964.120892183964\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 13295.841094989379\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6996.777998140813\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31324.584337194057\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8268.866765893898\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6316.900787155057\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5614.841287429603\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4689.874297614403\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6240.1950097891795\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4708.3943737105055\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4665.127779252351\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6374.999562529878\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4669.008140919409\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4663.957042335894\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4663.955532563554\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4663.9303520178\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4663.927540237568\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4663.927529055243\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4663.927527034304\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4663.927527034285\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4663.927527034304\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB280>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75103.039955279\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54059.37648500853\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 13014.157979853593\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 6998.968535128122\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31342.16101719742\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8242.24872796802\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6317.356045915845\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5700.8398619866\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4692.044489381228\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6248.978883785852\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4710.623371002703\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4667.090602796032\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6367.369938572416\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4671.3209603796895\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4665.8984001440995\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4665.868112893613\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4665.86544555506\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4665.864946801755\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4665.864072117925\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4665.864051741815\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4665.864050138693\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4665.864050138689\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4665.864050138693\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CE50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 77068.20579383094\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54097.954898872005\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 13020.205059748998\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7002.118007810512\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31354.999613193486\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8223.736246241824\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6318.645692937283\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6406.78657511973\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4689.195572119219\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6001.302863906949\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4690.150753411914\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4670.205904207178\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4672.895500597729\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4668.049709566023\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4667.9639701423675\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4667.949249739675\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4667.943299411968\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4667.943116691845\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4667.943089009615\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4667.943086294957\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4667.9430862949885\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4667.943086294957\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8FD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76851.98800841329\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54130.890506702686\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46908.40333047137\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7005.431809585694\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31354.81033332177\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8226.336463475565\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6329.504246793571\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6264.926680269578\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4690.976560393692\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5987.272775477835\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4691.40473299043\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4672.3304321685455\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4675.36264436887\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4670.058038407246\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4669.964111352629\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4669.948992501254\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4669.944353401428\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4669.94411546391\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4669.944087537329\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4669.94408404736\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4669.944084047389\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4669.94408404736\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75492.02911138986\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54155.685172748315\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 38346.314244475725\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 28353.09916140567\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 6799.750068778875\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6108.804964297197\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6485.109761370587\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 4700.335626275727\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6447.558161141307\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4701.04311819955\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4673.105915604676\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4688.497774601845\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4733.627538570405\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4673.351791526607\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4672.434521942858\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4672.315157845121\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4672.297279186\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4672.294768325409\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4672.294469094715\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4672.2944638557765\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4672.294463855781\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4672.2944638557765\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28DF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74195.54232232997\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54178.36723027128\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47480.240089488514\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7012.97538474618\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 6684.945294890648\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6492.687997050783\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6250.097020447226\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 9621.922972403041\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4698.704993973091\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6005.807934859175\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4693.645187924698\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4676.345684127373\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4716.503503063766\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4674.2195402492425\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4674.11655199049\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4674.110699296234\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 4674.108016929829\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 4674.10768844426\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 4674.107683099724\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 4674.107682504481\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4674.107682504481\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29090>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75431.96752323679\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54190.221026725645\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47184.13003512097\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7015.268964768175\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31345.19413293126\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8169.098326161241\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6371.092333071936\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5106.686766911584\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4738.8784939271745\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6093.307259424156\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4706.089006563383\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4677.4992667441\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6378.936613720166\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4706.107597092407\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4676.050675058868\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4676.106238501061\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4675.962951447214\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4675.958879543628\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4675.958850095418\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4675.958846695117\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4675.958845790069\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4675.958845790069\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AB60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76161.01572364787\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54226.08491196572\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46956.66396447072\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7017.625078716433\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31362.29656885518\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8153.436254065007\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6371.638576625481\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5129.42653650585\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4738.119415091973\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6094.725432909574\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4708.074140078146\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4679.369576269206\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6375.876340060515\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4708.023871387552\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4677.892478599738\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4677.902915609575\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4677.8027726220735\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4677.799030268491\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4677.798899761177\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4677.7988785722055\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4677.798874316857\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4677.798874316855\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4677.798874316857\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28910>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73241.02984956425\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54244.111426229865\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46673.74590282509\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7017.680218641537\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31375.955280250724\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8128.092623758991\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6370.265848930949\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5157.043161022154\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4738.114107295469\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6098.857323144784\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4710.103475648474\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4681.112177800431\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6376.292940381882\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4710.388090589495\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4679.574506726629\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4679.602279504827\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4679.488242779904\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4679.485416385714\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4679.4852977996115\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4679.485270371575\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4679.485268522136\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4679.485268522132\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4679.485268522136\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29180>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75897.46253425114\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54249.42217403036\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46870.67363884765\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7021.426297570919\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31390.113022384805\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8138.243364644195\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6373.582127883597\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5153.820830133018\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4736.537480609217\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6096.6593347190465\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4712.153346725335\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4683.242279499564\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6368.326730272296\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4696.287663009703\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4681.587681804371\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4681.569224160039\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4681.563554451229\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4681.562567783043\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4681.561890466559\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4681.561882678701\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4681.561882678701\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4681.561882678701\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2ACB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74064.40839379514\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54311.33454490619\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 12919.89425662813\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7025.342146415118\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31460.382651142907\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8248.289490100226\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6342.036963060727\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6065.569153313134\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4714.40130733787\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6235.052023927201\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4731.230392625492\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4687.452332088535\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6433.286806723442\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4691.943232553629\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4685.819942040707\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4685.793539060767\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4685.725072193347\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4685.724757261043\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4685.724716916172\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4685.724715976775\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4685.724715976775\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29840>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76028.54248181469\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54288.13214631555\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 37885.44815472597\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 28262.475578391553\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 6803.368184261944\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6127.857640349234\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6442.193947252899\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6278.239200229635\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4705.481152413108\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6738.882354362029\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4690.821911289314\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4689.674966810957\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4689.162039950992\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4690.154183528322\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4687.649450509904\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4687.611391407598\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4687.610143394013\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4687.607770437873\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4687.607725680412\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4687.607693514408\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4687.607693514423\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4687.607693514408\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A60E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76809.34442160722\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54326.80427655519\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 13019.423440000397\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 31208.92026296456\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 5037.938608028777\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7829.106499515698\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6637.8520680699785\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6295.816524895251\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6480.011695835158\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4712.544176221712\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5273.093867989632\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4692.086924930177\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4707.088840491523\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4690.128270598641\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4689.866745034397\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4689.8836101666875\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4689.849326134917\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4689.849034379671\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4689.849030081059\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4689.849025540284\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4689.849025540281\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4689.849025540284\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A380>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 76645.39150597024\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54342.99336248062\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46808.93078522598\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7035.420593100285\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31459.530607290348\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8288.747228312357\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6366.700227386316\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7792.477020707177\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4721.31014341688\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6229.154679330821\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4737.066771093821\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4693.702846458479\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4730.773158929556\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4691.778256327006\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4691.763301830329\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4691.741855006265\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4691.726950434454\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4691.726898896468\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4691.726515361942\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4691.726506909916\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4691.726506909909\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4691.726506909916\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A080>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74330.41415780666\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54361.56782909717\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47152.17769076629\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7038.017678992788\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31429.144103487095\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8280.838862944855\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6395.329953999057\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5544.904064783783\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4801.051093512548\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4717.858164167366\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6105.188690753432\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4719.359635372493\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4695.798225598886\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4736.957413367251\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4693.4432482503125\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4693.404456964784\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4693.394593704115\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4693.394146838544\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4693.393680093354\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4693.393671025844\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4693.393659402955\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4693.393659402966\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4693.393659402955\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29F00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69358.25916455123\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54603.37143791068\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47767.52618403518\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9225.443909782458\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6520.969073533485\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6733.047053712993\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6536.919548556956\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 8287.875389476863\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4727.791952122925\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6278.467228631041\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4724.666048612344\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4701.062672748336\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4737.079269899645\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4698.409103679181\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4699.343601599991\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4698.079573173749\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4698.076316775229\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4698.0754541298365\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4698.075410282645\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4698.075407071065\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4698.075407071065\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4698.075407071065\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B1C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72731.51701945675\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52930.41041619023\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 48789.33714787623\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9154.69365477981\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6657.567434010593\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6324.482381174637\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6510.483557305449\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 6470.329023889953\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 6489.784114573692\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 4729.6979406488135\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 6202.999526546658\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4703.568485632879\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4730.427368164727\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4700.878005591044\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4700.781301435579\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4699.998993032301\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4699.9883002946835\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4699.987417556541\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4699.987405164056\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4699.987404113279\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4699.9874041133135\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4699.987404113279\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29F00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 79834.29043393626\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 51161.522263576066\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47282.4573766126\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9252.366407178451\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6513.921227951202\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6758.044263907786\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6541.452060496088\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 11326.35330019971\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4730.620140296915\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6279.680167069136\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4725.942032411435\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4704.0233655996435\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4862.273082727259\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4705.40862436056\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4702.105230397052\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4701.841066646747\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4701.836760969134\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4701.836259395726\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4701.836229253874\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4701.8362283160095\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4701.8362283160095\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 79484.34901775178\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50289.05857404487\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46998.00404807147\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9257.671817007422\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6507.143044817986\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6773.166291976857\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6543.049404780861\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 10216.31518613917\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4731.946062768431\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6279.319218329447\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4725.6474819225095\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4705.378399789723\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5519.597897213407\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4720.707671934137\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4703.651900340277\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4703.6270912736545\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4703.624383297838\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4703.62409796894\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4703.6240636499115\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4703.624061966262\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4703.624061966264\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4703.624061966262\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29180>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 79138.21393477872\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50494.37812732607\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46689.930573719874\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9255.636833005643\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6584.300373139697\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6723.918497434364\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6570.298431843652\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 24113.748476589943\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4737.78952383131\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6290.960732620817\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4777.278373920475\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4709.3325507556865\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4724.4917280196\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4715.562827831057\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4705.437429295949\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4705.342407806281\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 4705.333671995403\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 4705.332224982452\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 4705.33208274017\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 4705.332080592996\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    229,   Neg. LLF: 4705.332080592993\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4705.332080592996\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 229\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CEFB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 78791.16717829132\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53469.67686378758\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46493.105161887426\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9257.604601994797\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6535.251242285926\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6759.143090075985\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6554.4896743250665\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 23620.286587632694\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4735.524954050567\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6288.349902686667\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4739.175948465647\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4709.684949384551\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4764.770043450959\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4711.449605580423\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4707.336507418237\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4707.060969411816\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4707.056337851867\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4707.055816365182\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4707.055784817899\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4707.05578371395\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4707.055783713953\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4707.05578371395\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD5A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 78552.05021865958\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53368.862523432086\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46272.677830206194\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9264.909189471993\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6647.588429857352\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6703.046060188275\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6580.778537121779\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 24274.752036740407\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4756.035313264297\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 4718.964090004773\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 6210.541437357852\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4710.770975676998\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4731.397379151784\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4708.892043573025\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    169,   Neg. LLF: 4708.889179967222\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4709.011384326415\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4708.871175760978\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4708.867805641014\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4708.867748116326\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4708.867737005071\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4708.867737005074\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4708.867737005071\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDD20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 78157.55833074656\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53239.85155012457\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45962.738389582744\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9266.633916506347\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6694.645918861428\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6688.6919553574035\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6576.588142420605\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 6689.077141425519\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4756.541501458663\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 4728.154591529928\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4817.468526263425\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 5306.208680999685\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4713.073449828789\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4712.648281265819\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4726.67009714029\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4710.482806371796\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4710.476375338843\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4710.4751172655\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4710.475019634525\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4710.475016552062\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4710.475016552073\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4710.475016552062\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCFD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69397.94991501237\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50045.72987473132\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46396.20489469843\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9273.81262167204\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6704.767999863464\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6693.982786904537\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6579.126324019597\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 6621.035174864435\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4757.589889474597\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6310.521304010685\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 14316.992378180934\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4719.644168780384\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4722.317461974619\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4822.244691970503\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4714.2140018094515\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4713.389532583976\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4713.378443118823\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4713.376744524846\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4713.376597281345\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4713.376589832045\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4713.376587674004\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4713.376587674008\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4713.376587674004\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CE50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66710.03407458235\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53363.49508157845\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46639.54543693859\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9259.400835255517\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6681.9208931368485\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6856.560084486649\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6502.735546607567\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6480.225996594725\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4756.425843484135\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6276.393608409802\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4761.577576821376\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4717.939431733863\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4717.361316384156\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5876.783164876714\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4715.2259519288655\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4715.313357353924\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4714.9997455390185\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4714.996725970351\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4714.996401923359\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4714.996380319786\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4714.996380319775\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4714.996380319786\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5030>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 78807.6858964975\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 51152.32889857132\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46587.80964766823\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9277.818771657629\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6459.11555540779\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6907.403509344789\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6554.744041867428\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 6722.059772569974\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4740.170761742902\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6272.021097915674\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4737.8207887797835\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4718.672748827932\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4723.380781726351\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4744.29539505349\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4717.696346404056\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4717.69026096961\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4717.688801140988\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4717.68826455216\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4717.6882530666035\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4717.688236748926\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4717.68823632991\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4717.68823632991\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B1F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69866.99293455179\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49297.65680831403\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46770.498025581684\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9272.487259962818\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6689.332834378056\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6868.3361046960545\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6496.858755687321\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6487.974828662877\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4759.039592830768\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6281.958382504138\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4744.40532572616\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4722.383960282879\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4722.452378428668\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5877.958868573174\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4720.351020376181\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4719.517757039466\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4719.490985602266\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4719.489284369407\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4719.488309388677\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4719.488276304594\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4719.488274291227\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4719.488274291224\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4719.488274291227\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAF50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 78274.42570150452\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53400.15660971897\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46513.59399598083\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9274.674292256343\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6691.27681459827\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6889.125309712623\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6511.294812559533\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6490.101315529373\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4761.286169052123\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6285.148006988389\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4752.189980235013\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4723.941114971347\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4723.823759743245\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5922.329280574213\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4721.597475222288\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4721.116196132742\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4721.084639583132\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4721.0823291643965\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4721.081449335298\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4721.081415066596\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4721.081412826292\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4721.081412826288\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4721.081412826292\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8700>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 77911.05724427802\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 49917.64492762494\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46221.413411573405\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9272.96548985537\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6632.7431944620075\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6378.418282784456\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6662.546595094942\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 6436.834657239047\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 17677.194683615944\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6259.366491420264\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4745.7914145873865\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4733.467171062661\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 6051.577645564769\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4724.707422157598\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4722.912522819366\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4722.684104577608\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4722.681876248341\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4722.680144651775\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4722.680126595367\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4722.680121568588\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4722.680121568603\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4722.680121568588\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9450>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69544.36895425888\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54892.054624911136\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45484.148979765225\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7075.743443256926\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31641.430521486516\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8258.053648130914\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6433.154723001799\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5917.232171630687\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5533.520569137971\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4748.419013509109\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6197.277964375418\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4731.108345426133\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4726.971666838178\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 6242.866768275746\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4724.19475476554\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4724.165550189489\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4724.165170893834\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4724.165121644557\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4724.165041915819\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4724.165041915834\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4724.165041915819\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71316.71037992842\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54938.93867972013\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45302.49884924243\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7077.442995689558\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31662.969335881848\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8240.361146502222\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6434.408036820507\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5745.527079763359\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5789.8417161012585\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4750.397615797565\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6198.294431833972\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4731.424167623901\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4728.592192260397\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 6250.332836157221\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4725.755955910638\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4725.734455433591\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4725.735721007238\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4725.732423364523\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4725.732402128002\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4725.732399575204\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4725.732399575205\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4725.732399575204\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A080>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71509.49643036866\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54914.99125964954\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45670.92558063824\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7081.751966718122\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31671.573619727496\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8277.36913056539\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6438.932081817905\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6618.448087474568\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5196.259933588294\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4752.5118774311395\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6212.230319016077\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4736.570254396521\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4730.934918361449\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 6257.120508566709\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4728.1894557638625\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4728.154692367447\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4728.155154290859\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4728.153021995815\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4728.153006020476\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4728.153004102845\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4728.153004102854\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4728.153004102845\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883C70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74082.02469879245\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54971.80473908143\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45703.92527754313\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7084.996490207902\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31681.25502005276\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8287.201186260336\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6441.012123892038\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7305.045334224349\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5032.304787296502\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4754.3902602157295\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6215.362895976845\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4739.505977031478\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4732.810439371853\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 6260.046292171466\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4730.06395395148\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4730.025919869817\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4730.026359838816\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4730.023223493305\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4730.023197102822\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4730.023193695624\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4730.023193695629\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4730.023193695624\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28E20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73741.30186696642\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55013.29670411346\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45651.11786731738\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7085.609895770329\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31701.530171117724\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8278.704152761555\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6441.302239363914\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6449.446306484584\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5040.815046284642\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4755.9238029340395\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6210.3014760354345\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4739.65458526582\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4734.3347279668105\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 6251.7454245998415\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4731.513085222938\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4731.480234873905\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4731.480094292303\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4731.479301436741\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4731.479270003317\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4731.479268486484\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4731.479268486499\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4731.479268486484\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28310>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 78073.18631506924\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53614.13722990912\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46494.962033709264\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9305.763281387792\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6710.220194606009\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6815.103115487234\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6535.5571924054875\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6516.331076067111\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4780.904351322781\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6300.557707999951\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4787.415697781857\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4739.441285648907\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4739.031276930662\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5759.221508592351\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4736.382122766789\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4736.487658584427\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4736.031942794054\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4736.0280796186\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4736.027702503181\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4736.0276939568475\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4736.027693366076\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4736.027693366076\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75674.03428470032\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53628.81606142965\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47263.20594625753\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9262.146555705363\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6710.771404386285\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6499.494559968456\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6532.388689278712\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 6505.769977747728\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4776.927458913129\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6224.1043562721325\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4746.260463805558\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4754.003340702193\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4739.422407815238\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4749.457872046107\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4738.546878808897\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4738.540354139683\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 4738.539981219843\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 4738.539863079762\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 4738.539834983285\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 4738.539834509561\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4738.539834509561\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5090>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74250.69991835835\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53812.67242245047\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47814.78363692158\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9271.82067632073\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6719.506008333793\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6609.639294776322\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6494.1055561507455\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 6581.2371701859365\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4797.20611793917\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6337.128469102448\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 29230.24166975917\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4745.735988031662\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4745.113711143759\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 6025.77174414933\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4743.616870278123\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4742.827837057174\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4742.814890869093\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4742.813568053261\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4742.813250281374\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4742.813239722307\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4742.813238648401\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    240,   Neg. LLF: 4742.813238648397\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4742.813238648401\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 240\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A8F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 75264.47312499963\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53693.74815506655\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47501.71845757312\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9281.702209192365\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6720.01857651704\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6626.731394218374\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6509.883023593411\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6463.908220864669\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4777.674730261215\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6292.870890784745\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4747.362361616395\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4766.783171734709\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4748.72976445092\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4752.971473349371\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4744.776827466463\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4744.583835298212\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4744.574830039688\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4744.574324331037\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4744.574288406822\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4744.57428786703\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4744.57428786703\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C6A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69849.00041297998\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53755.82238524161\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46569.93837956431\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9326.433091787741\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 7176.008172880627\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6721.705192187552\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6550.533618989493\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6583.27582030719\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4793.049067797112\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6349.952036122494\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4996.769567684895\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4749.764620972584\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4904.793328173222\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4749.4874747011545\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4746.975967172069\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4746.827333384991\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4746.8134963913235\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4746.811076382956\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4746.810725188267\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4746.810714328303\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4746.810713689634\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4746.810713689634\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CA30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 79524.920530697\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53941.842683652736\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47054.42106332489\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9342.612193097706\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6742.949590523767\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6748.257312734164\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6626.542257748112\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 6573.453017515931\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4788.332443530166\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6538.650794547642\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4763.0048852495165\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 6265.172492016244\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4752.448916354008\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4776.509424324568\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4750.644780812379\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4749.482098233206\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4749.471673300534\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4749.470130208931\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4749.4698952868\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4749.469873183186\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4749.46987268642\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4749.46987268642\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CF40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 79737.58086879175\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52196.44629986418\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47587.250004977075\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9334.360622390308\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6717.744243323751\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 7019.770614610075\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6533.324971383518\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6495.279397499415\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4788.344687551991\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6327.266923081679\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4757.406637608984\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4754.017272660467\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6281.563943173307\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4759.144385055612\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4751.839833576166\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4751.819740872328\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4751.815231072329\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4751.8150107453475\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4751.814993131389\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4751.814992575211\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4751.814992575211\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CA30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65901.78982616408\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50901.97635718067\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47538.11817183787\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9310.834576922165\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6734.468601333867\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6728.007003395909\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6518.3746030001985\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6495.262583012382\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4787.736639388046\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6287.2082760640515\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4765.4621881624025\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4760.051939620485\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4756.258821101403\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4768.119980449657\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4754.450384867311\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4753.468540803713\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4753.460483670894\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4753.459658568059\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4753.45959797031\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4753.459508894065\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4753.459503897855\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4753.45950389785\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4753.459503897855\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C4C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68469.24115206883\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53798.5498945358\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47076.935243801\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9335.667044521597\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6737.155765140553\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6908.793093093889\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6520.361722608577\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6525.499157167524\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4795.1760069828215\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6323.690098361339\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4810.794916174193\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4757.695354979827\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4757.981845876054\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5844.535954484107\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4755.472514682615\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4755.224114672382\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4755.072561486466\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4755.069078826505\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4755.068582092279\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4755.068560545853\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4755.068560545843\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4755.068560545853\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9750>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67582.39494946515\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53853.692063904055\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47098.420797142564\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9339.09327730395\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6740.537340702813\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6925.24958792446\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6522.919578214542\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6529.601536147784\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4796.543077383195\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6327.765419240606\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4813.859559028257\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4759.676345417829\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4759.881727323104\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5897.658138474479\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4757.432755468477\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4757.294901828729\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4757.133884605978\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4757.130830417869\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4757.130317978528\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4757.1302855905315\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4757.130285590524\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4757.1302855905315\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF1F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 78608.65204119006\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53917.39874298357\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46967.13520204807\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9337.679260335464\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6742.631641728745\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6876.459428105302\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6531.437081701877\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6524.031044414264\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4796.793183143671\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6325.758030553034\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4785.970409022388\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4761.81058706047\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4761.894103675393\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5736.367163895521\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4759.715428440376\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4758.863044348762\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4758.868985702019\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4758.85732054284\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4758.855688735668\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4758.855583427234\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4758.855559474201\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4758.855559474191\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4758.855559474201\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD300>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71171.87192419014\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53876.20791494897\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47120.77045923194\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9349.541616588058\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6627.685144631146\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 30673.996920040052\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6077.992049464765\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 6536.88972683605\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4786.743006268627\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6195.351734215221\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4762.763616685297\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    136,   Neg. LLF: 6339.212430090309\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4879.521471249709\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4761.344190478383\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4761.322638408748\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4761.327596899118\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4761.300736140998\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4761.299723009846\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4761.299651712371\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4761.299629876174\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4761.29962987615\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4761.299629876174\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC700>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65977.24861422116\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53897.245637293956\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47105.750024764275\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9349.480817797797\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6750.465337060217\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6970.723553029618\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6530.04966029589\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6537.371967670554\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4799.683633964159\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6337.921911388159\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4814.49920087375\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4765.539241337941\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4765.443154250565\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5987.722841189759\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4763.232178833082\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4764.096788530209\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4763.204672866077\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4763.203798070712\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4763.203777427398\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4763.203776582408\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4763.203776582408\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E740>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69626.10827170053\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 50755.20905341522\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46933.8655556241\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9365.522578914102\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 6539.875931646866\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6952.489808349415\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6618.299909450709\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 6819.174333548693\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 4791.433147871335\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6331.02952324076\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4781.826809778264\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4766.596566693634\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4769.729840894293\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4950.394495507929\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4765.353211556292\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4765.344610982758\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4765.345240252413\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4765.341681460392\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4765.341526843514\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4765.341511000335\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4765.341510255586\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4765.341510255586\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A770>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71972.28466773126\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55375.61221100144\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46134.645168380506\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7141.399056700061\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31918.837889147202\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8299.75284270274\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6495.481051754699\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7504.5063964380515\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4879.549876152367\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4790.780327245231\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6199.823476302396\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4792.497869808865\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4769.811414240116\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4820.908388692755\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4767.033429918358\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4766.969109722225\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4766.955015071058\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4766.951176448367\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4766.950615327605\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4766.950606683746\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4766.950604892874\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4766.9506048928815\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4766.950604892874\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5030>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70733.5586403168\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55392.992637489966\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45705.09206923222\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7142.551131179605\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31948.328319885037\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8279.978208040426\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6497.764728752112\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6860.4692409624095\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4915.880710301425\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4792.039574350685\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6215.209608019601\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4785.5068203851\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4771.302832551553\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5375.86120629082\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4768.524630778798\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4768.462765785198\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4768.464445101972\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4768.4536851647\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4768.453651535758\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4768.453638723612\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4768.453638723604\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4768.453638723612\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B250>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71990.9198479556\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55415.232997629035\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45411.13182928182\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7142.825614742911\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31953.854365311992\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8256.289074422399\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6498.265398939959\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6334.637361791374\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4958.888802154708\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4793.482758657686\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6223.841096702208\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4780.0508555517345\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4772.792396203707\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 6032.448509416128\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4769.970063433468\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4769.922597279849\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4769.923861250382\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4769.918789966352\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4769.918716879536\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4769.918709872331\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4769.918709872334\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4769.918709872331\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A770>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74452.43760625759\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55402.36615388094\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45900.868332853715\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7147.438679969333\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31968.226265252793\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8293.507050382794\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6503.2447006497005\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7467.472922170591\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4921.496211230664\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4795.964430317598\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6232.504337776447\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4790.4247070514875\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4775.418956298619\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5663.765892647615\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4772.662346749454\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4772.599254421272\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4772.59728986981\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4772.586480733832\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4772.586434484622\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4772.586417336643\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4772.586417336633\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4772.586417336643\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A71C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74073.15021442476\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55388.07178039702\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45761.05213336942\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7147.4741633424965\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 31985.169190827597\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8291.57056741085\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6502.1425104070895\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7449.61722105417\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4926.000100297607\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4797.448439601009\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6234.635997232519\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4786.62428399911\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4776.936520190172\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5749.50838145153\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4774.135585039719\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4774.078935305171\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4774.079707505441\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4774.0717347148\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4774.071657918585\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4774.071647894551\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4774.071647894549\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4774.071647894551\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABD30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73885.29986686341\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55368.5579773279\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45516.23232446889\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7149.6256808331655\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 32017.556071527284\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8283.807289189768\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6505.14235925532\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7244.054642074159\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4936.8497244107575\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4799.122789063674\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6239.135600492955\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4787.748611259423\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4778.460114131185\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 6313.82638416252\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4775.685400525941\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4775.630356755961\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4775.630771527057\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4775.623391505922\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4775.623294580446\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4775.623286472319\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4775.623286472319\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4775.623286472319\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71724.03507317645\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55263.24998044502\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45359.07706144906\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 29332.077979146823\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 6968.615949263953\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6294.608383715349\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6585.35697019168\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 4815.895177005176\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 11025.46332744844\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4807.378471102899\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4778.204203704476\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4794.705093307489\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4814.192577070422\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4777.95049624467\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4777.288359229486\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4777.346951061\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4777.235530912485\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4777.231854296904\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4777.23192450547\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4777.231531800848\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4777.231531800843\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4777.231531800848\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A980>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74223.98587473098\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55458.31090149014\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45795.99963052395\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7156.255267309088\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 32051.05741950286\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8301.554643522079\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6511.202343549232\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7455.767078895698\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4903.138341021886\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4803.234347910971\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6241.6603052026285\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4791.438228545235\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4782.686279228407\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5408.56993893526\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4779.848074808301\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4779.794280884925\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4779.795006228522\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4779.788236113116\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4779.788168842876\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4779.788157666851\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4779.78815766685\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4779.788157666851\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AEF0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74286.90983366185\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55518.00201427415\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45846.26137359084\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7158.340668454834\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 32070.44555803983\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8311.025261583578\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6511.499376057262\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7455.797185893765\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4885.600796864568\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4804.991329304803\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6236.364895317553\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4791.607571887093\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4784.401683810792\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4901.179071832063\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4781.501404611014\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4781.451829959387\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4781.449547219343\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4781.445868998456\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4781.44581005871\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4781.445776351061\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4781.445776351051\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4781.445776351061\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AFE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72425.60138971251\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55517.21623604661\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45724.32772810447\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7161.246052295174\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 32070.318499115834\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8304.500588510251\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6515.6828566112545\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7450.897553419982\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4880.559345218579\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4806.726571752715\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6243.328264131875\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4792.078708072544\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4786.140552122501\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4934.924375115284\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4783.219682795063\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4783.175038043673\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4783.173916248221\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4783.170546306933\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4783.170500038958\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4783.170489756401\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4783.170489756394\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4783.170489756401\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882260>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73717.64515662525\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55544.33838755352\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45549.98416714232\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 33344.15280567284\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 16592.433249816695\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6615.160640749436\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6799.331753883074\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6066.197178102963\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4808.928889916828\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6333.924187594272\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4802.546601855502\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4787.744282508338\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4902.155954719872\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4784.713474895434\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4784.601789175336\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4784.586171078954\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4784.5794199598\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4784.578736154548\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4784.576960870945\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4784.576955926957\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4784.576955926958\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4784.576955926957\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883EE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72306.51468715383\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55555.551010352254\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45247.975365125414\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35240.581892057264\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24209.34482054143\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6673.869115981477\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6693.915389556722\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6508.994349668465\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4803.91425413284\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6220.776615777684\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4790.324680170852\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4787.674055143578\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 6373.759815906809\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4785.946684433022\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4785.933119304526\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4785.9245011846615\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4785.92558666363\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4785.923756264299\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4785.9237427513335\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4785.9237427513435\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4785.9237427513335\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B1F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73816.48089093428\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55538.250187146536\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45582.70563945195\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 32723.43022624327\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7182.16698467833\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6938.686867844157\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6826.378191274839\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 40189.74491485717\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6425.778974809558\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4820.168388525424\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 7136.764347301903\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4791.340299692629\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4791.973799443325\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4788.465324009529\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4788.422167463348\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4788.447044683593\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4788.47584766957\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4788.399794134079\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4788.399022725231\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4788.398912712869\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4788.398861957049\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4788.39886195704\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4788.398861957049\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387DC30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69414.78647884984\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55550.36124061311\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45534.95166713116\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 34744.34093796533\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 22566.60803809182\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6643.077811380717\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6754.7765955856\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6235.790598677244\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4812.193770661443\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6354.735981352473\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4806.47900281224\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4793.116084579866\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6318.405610686383\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4790.043327781661\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4789.93619780486\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4789.92528468665\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4789.908642781727\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4789.907398274545\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4789.905770828749\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4789.905767867871\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4789.90576786788\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4789.905767867871\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C430>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73566.12053723357\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55579.07861549496\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45464.51125812616\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35129.11548191809\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 22565.566722070886\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6640.294534879293\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6772.02963639701\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6214.055841965094\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4813.730042315897\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6346.831445694174\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4802.054229518747\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4794.879985885409\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6282.601084330565\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4791.808566847429\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4791.715165594074\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4791.697874855727\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4791.686338413195\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4791.685871228187\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4791.68532562334\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4791.685325111918\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4791.685325111918\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AC80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69513.56142972637\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55542.81054305761\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45532.57712016334\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35298.52500659831\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24264.26823502153\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6688.125899800649\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6709.234596622522\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6519.997056214586\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4811.687114993136\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6232.382047648072\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4798.179313584239\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4795.362662443515\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 6362.611122608892\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4793.525839857649\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4793.510832388258\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4793.502139086211\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4793.503820142939\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4793.501355530847\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4793.501323486828\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4793.501323486839\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4793.501323486828\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71173.0673385585\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55624.8098588428\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45416.78499263122\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35285.976853652304\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24303.573847719887\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6691.935927078299\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6711.525895278252\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6521.774033140729\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4813.350132851876\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6236.868339053241\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4799.746196156755\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4796.8916997751\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 6358.88052875904\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4795.059178827199\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4795.04244437685\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4795.032839078377\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4795.0330649421585\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4795.032328050376\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4795.0322737984125\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4795.032273798424\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4795.0322737984125\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C296F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74280.0463545466\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55695.461146208225\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46078.45019510195\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 7181.700606149068\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 32231.246424771485\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8361.060933239092\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6535.2982819968765\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7523.009111160671\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4856.589459691377\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4933.140899104954\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4826.419179705938\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4807.088382485316\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4801.729628471348\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4814.041342895351\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4799.752011163544\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4798.683070331577\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4798.66062204582\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4798.662857964093\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4798.655588845864\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4798.655451558524\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4798.655449700721\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 4798.655449700748\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4798.655449700721\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A89D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71425.23197625947\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55746.36574177761\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45968.620029608\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 32162.348449567628\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 5297.923774625591\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7927.654780180949\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6803.9140047646915\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4836.094238735869\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6472.836429645284\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4854.645589692789\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4817.899618223507\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4802.345448206571\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4803.463739840747\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4800.214361496997\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4800.163399308266\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4800.185839080758\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4800.13045716564\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4800.129664845369\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4800.12958808879\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4800.129581499139\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4800.129581499163\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4800.129581499139\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8E80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72549.4879345646\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55786.573850626504\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45541.02082321951\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 33846.33086418421\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 20376.80992773857\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6654.689381724008\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6797.603786682214\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6181.998243539595\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4824.59961414584\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6376.460133418908\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4818.531405415963\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4804.735482279542\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5095.105391753594\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4801.5880104551725\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4801.484715133009\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4801.471569801738\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4801.460725707733\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4801.460273114741\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4801.45834085537\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4801.45833885639\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4801.458338856393\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4801.45833885639\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD5A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73859.03615274778\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55845.579325315484\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45815.3499166911\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 31525.25241005772\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 5105.184325785118\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7555.086214549865\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6695.474474149161\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6480.793057598626\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6580.856940536716\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4828.61975397581\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4875.214382172428\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4806.969285516925\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4821.313693891127\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4805.2027580464255\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4803.876399500008\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4803.853075602454\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4803.845925658745\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4803.8460579389375\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4803.84499914133\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4803.84498460724\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4803.8449846072635\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4803.84498460724\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCB50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74032.8188893193\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55919.41714561418\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45899.65585238555\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 32607.895867812098\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 5432.057220058325\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7649.942977893913\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6794.423283617767\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 19627.597131420334\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5002.319173301079\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4831.155803913525\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6119.683128592438\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4808.3103093556365\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4815.862638496531\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4806.316124896854\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4805.779758455358\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4805.818375530849\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4805.7677751920655\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4805.766795697168\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4805.766671741758\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4805.766664134436\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4805.76666413446\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4805.766664134436\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE3B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71012.87974889742\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55992.610108735105\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45489.34527187547\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 34255.62948484906\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 21478.519645991146\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6671.369761994123\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6791.226879218038\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6247.43185310885\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4830.5252071929335\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6405.310027533576\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4824.302670185024\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4810.56775627895\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6343.061580387686\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4807.460266328457\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4807.356458005549\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4807.337645877769\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4807.326351345604\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4807.325044246572\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4807.3231942766615\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4807.32318851022\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4807.323188510236\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4807.32318851022\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF580>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74217.81565165205\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56059.534537069514\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45699.67964115055\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 26438.85769608355\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 6935.731371423968\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6340.9811445000505\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7918.119601928522\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 4843.643982167698\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5259.559788675393\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4845.699086548566\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6209.645734512058\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4813.318168426957\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4810.150783957404\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4810.211400864401\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4810.706939781577\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4809.872171211345\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4809.871398928832\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4809.871369516871\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4809.871363944059\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 4809.871363944063\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4809.871363944059\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74022.52291704388\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56139.52044904936\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45566.505085346595\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 33212.04539639226\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 11262.81774581517\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6673.76366440626\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6842.98090264143\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5163.275281059857\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4838.120658302166\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6315.6195275907485\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4830.574343878285\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4814.501082408381\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4829.436134415225\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4811.64564474339\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4811.599364154805\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4811.594139554018\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4811.5825624998115\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4811.580997453139\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4811.580760942725\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4811.580664623118\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4811.580663672693\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4811.580663672693\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAEC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72502.00105727214\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56050.76371756441\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45104.462835799044\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35277.392721356846\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 22577.94743280465\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6675.0946801215405\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6795.795358701736\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6275.233304393009\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4835.931382903022\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6396.9049188773615\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4829.604489012885\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4816.189793612615\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6361.484305355159\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4813.213785078802\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4813.025872390041\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4812.990677669193\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4812.977862247924\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4812.972290606516\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4812.971837546458\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4812.971831248187\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4812.971831248196\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4812.971831248187\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A920>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73165.05683688022\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56286.52964679721\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44955.65457885994\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35836.9316882073\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24308.47084591558\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6718.346844488259\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6720.212992596162\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6620.568446583211\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4832.1101066998035\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6237.473900320856\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4820.430060035245\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4816.97676958715\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4915.1353353421555\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4814.815360139639\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4814.670643236408\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4814.651721942103\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4814.650619984572\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4814.6505865133395\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4814.650575836422\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4814.650575836423\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4814.650575836422\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929CC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73047.12991700578\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56356.723816413796\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44644.24236757748\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35905.10597919152\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24345.229608915317\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6719.378354427618\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6714.920470315312\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6619.201687389265\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4833.366766725856\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6241.42537282773\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4821.978145095085\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4818.35387247544\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4894.302358625329\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4816.278768465434\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4815.999918671335\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4815.983510466808\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4815.983320010603\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4815.982939454351\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4815.982932863746\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4815.982932863745\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4815.982932863746\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A920>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71841.09920549125\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56354.48287465278\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44756.511870886505\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35929.6331007291\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24345.663853269638\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6722.904314625182\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6722.23566006082\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6621.700885934435\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4835.437043834132\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6243.53645842291\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4824.033166248562\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4820.38709477147\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4903.2089109261\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4818.252550445775\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4818.031735511714\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4818.011764344264\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4818.010664460924\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4818.01065450641\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4818.010652698045\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4818.010652698038\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4818.010652698045\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70143.20134119106\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56400.73962426763\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44551.9633835921\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35917.16012601017\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24396.360088459165\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6724.560485852657\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6722.74579709687\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6623.7290372909965\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4836.690706407805\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6246.157194023239\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4825.479095670388\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4821.682529827595\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4889.261394730269\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4819.704796691793\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4819.351639034685\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4819.335493121538\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4819.335490002685\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4819.334836664625\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4819.334825117821\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4819.3348251178195\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4819.334825117821\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28A60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72516.78231595297\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56416.5753259135\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44321.55010702898\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36015.2400274329\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24428.38809407292\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6727.734043815421\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6726.0261952018345\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6618.695427269019\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4838.296072789877\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6252.35592474383\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4827.107739055661\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4823.162302660958\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4885.495427058028\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4821.3077973564905\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4820.826364647657\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4820.809823601279\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4820.80999080306\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4820.8091861930025\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4820.809159782408\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4820.809159782406\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4820.809159782408\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C282B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72415.28900310298\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56402.86957427242\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44607.20558856482\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36014.941143893055\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24395.455417912744\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6730.971154221377\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6727.943169472296\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6622.872536025912\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4840.671080196935\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6253.985673159496\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4829.455166315766\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4825.5248058080115\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4897.112287645721\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4823.469069690467\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4823.117564949781\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4823.099769491885\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4823.099608463466\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4823.0992119251405\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4823.099196728116\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4823.099196728113\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4823.099196728116\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A4A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73539.57770194602\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56455.28487299261\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44961.724365610615\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35971.152574172935\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24391.11235678685\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6735.873993905539\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6746.696543587077\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6628.239161840829\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4843.250279775846\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6253.645542290049\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4831.740946664577\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4827.932663412184\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4931.69335362306\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4825.756917193174\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4825.602520487975\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4825.582274969924\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4825.58116202864\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4825.581143708891\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4825.581134318052\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4825.581134318054\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4825.581134318052\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38825C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70435.17499214303\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56451.48614310515\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45186.86139114017\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35910.54223186882\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24385.323994111524\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6740.081191956847\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6758.874701500876\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6631.713116889738\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4845.385503561207\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6255.27894647167\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4833.7689579603375\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4829.93706594245\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4960.543911989467\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4827.742344019842\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4827.640605919638\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4827.620682881385\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4827.619448383561\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4827.61937442776\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4827.61934782047\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4827.619347820476\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4827.61934782047\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A76D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73708.41025172386\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56506.45939085202\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45094.71339207609\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36013.335339785466\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24391.21186295555\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6744.457750132675\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6763.75463786823\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6637.808117451967\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4847.325401321457\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6257.425601864939\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4835.731185237102\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4831.784931261014\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4945.693804403834\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4829.600367747205\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4829.491148500852\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4829.471024295846\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4829.469754179821\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4829.469689206075\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4829.469662119376\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4829.469662119383\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4829.469662119376\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B790>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72806.51334252872\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56571.082267813064\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45757.70398910193\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35845.68802363966\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24352.946359798283\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6748.155285593426\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6758.668786486534\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6640.704822851733\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4850.328294712621\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6261.516950043762\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4838.483984292905\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4834.725324848741\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4989.813576385779\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4832.34583817307\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4832.286010537389\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4832.265661591574\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4832.263699786794\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4832.263302297188\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4832.263245156793\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4832.263243947013\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4832.263243947007\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4832.263243947013\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CA30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74168.05234105384\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56596.35919876446\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45592.46391558021\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35856.73379296581\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24385.64238046621\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6751.825685109287\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6768.119809722584\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6654.984755370956\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4851.817260985443\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6260.140605566539\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4840.173141287741\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4836.279255797046\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4978.443047940242\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4833.974938584626\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4833.911076597998\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4833.891487262233\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4833.889472913334\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4833.889110958605\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4833.889056038177\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4833.889055017564\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4833.889055017559\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4833.889055017564\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C880>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72823.42716692426\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56641.65444115412\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45359.8595991114\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35880.50107383981\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24427.171367480863\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6753.604962889667\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6769.4849391126145\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6660.939630182995\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4853.056985473884\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6261.638288087506\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4841.688265260063\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4837.629498851702\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4951.69017861471\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4835.386709666757\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4835.281385246311\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4835.260963663022\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4835.25950839042\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4835.259409566445\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4835.259375105408\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4835.259375105416\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4835.259375105408\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B370>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72389.02720677269\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56694.87279846289\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45219.658854181645\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35841.257637703806\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24468.12307288488\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6756.778706853087\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6771.518579745544\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6668.193230394663\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4854.552597340529\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6264.418681444275\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4843.257564454534\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4839.08274502813\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4927.576432619042\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4836.927315264604\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4836.768613795348\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4836.748466374604\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4836.747205921223\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4836.747180189195\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4836.747163546502\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4836.747163546505\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4836.747163546502\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B130>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70874.96276822823\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56709.0063256323\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45106.185257382036\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35847.58063332777\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24494.70379676696\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6760.112742249768\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6778.22951220472\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6668.389238680073\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4856.082726683944\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6267.604657738383\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4844.907264959261\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4840.591199149416\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4926.429970162838\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4838.491465666265\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4838.303867855761\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4838.283820494973\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4838.282632514982\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4838.282620091196\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4838.282611908835\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4838.282611908837\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4838.282611908835\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCEB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72536.44531658632\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56639.21034441366\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44910.81452174284\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35836.64864129135\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 22949.06068868981\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6718.44658865333\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6824.955695125544\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6294.319094922672\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4863.925249070688\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6452.37075986343\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4857.466478787281\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4842.746258475307\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6400.347659538318\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4839.971727284768\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4839.655834860192\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4839.614728275064\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4839.610988590566\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4839.6019018706265\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4839.60174573628\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4839.601745736294\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4839.60174573628\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CFDC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73026.93588142829\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56723.64255787259\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44978.63838170062\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35921.80811200307\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24525.122490411643\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6765.308801379591\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6782.908855965035\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6663.727986637602\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4859.632842768608\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6276.197072840761\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4848.28726604943\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4843.840962058272\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4918.626399967614\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4841.863414451733\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4841.585203098376\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4841.568224425922\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4841.567952571691\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4841.567621610206\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4841.567612025709\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4841.567607310866\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4841.567607310864\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4841.567607310866\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA3B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71606.67432740939\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56773.92400197362\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44808.00813061385\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35900.82543791751\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 23025.74088429739\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6726.557412433058\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6825.322514559388\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6299.683524096788\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4867.761591521859\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6464.049077067407\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4860.929253969411\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4846.072667793574\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6400.262089028391\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4843.335776341836\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4843.008910993056\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4842.967062899829\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4842.9660044972325\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4842.957019837859\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4842.956901260522\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4842.956901260535\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4842.956901260522\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB8E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71306.28479386486\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56844.82066048444\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45361.118654440885\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35835.37773401648\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24539.61051668802\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6772.1179207471905\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6790.278526400576\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6691.346103892404\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4864.10280887007\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6275.115917498581\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4852.716426321973\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4848.318782106929\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4921.899001678105\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4846.220072819829\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4846.036073896925\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4846.015837355124\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4846.014525737203\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4846.0145091294935\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4846.014496415957\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4846.01449641596\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4846.014496415957\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882D40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74105.5883203312\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56927.97469155858\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45620.805543245704\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35917.41211536054\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24461.459551934982\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6775.510525520217\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6777.006984959379\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6679.12993107034\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4867.046089860782\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6283.918803659161\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4855.514522649072\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4851.166024403841\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4925.820193744523\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4848.854468835063\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4848.678789066258\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4848.655591036897\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4848.654173824193\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4848.6541583325825\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4848.654143329726\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4848.654143329727\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4848.654143329726\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CA30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 74279.38960617273\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56939.08662805545\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45561.48952210552\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36012.166800217376\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24469.071452657925\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6780.373392091701\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6793.717864939836\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6684.346454717675\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4869.037005425255\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6284.176550642797\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4857.51534179514\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4853.074786094003\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4940.947882124829\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4850.774653857637\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4850.656471244111\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4850.634445221342\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4850.632880747286\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4850.632794803603\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4850.632750274012\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4850.6327502740205\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4850.632750274012\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72757.41987506035\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56985.38070821017\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45501.73287342441\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35961.79760830797\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24497.902005694148\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6783.612470663814\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6795.90822684127\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6698.7382987216315\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4870.629306366234\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6285.102930973053\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4859.19629961749\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4854.666650782233\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4926.763494243256\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4852.430484161175\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4852.277599447003\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4852.255923436224\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4852.254421687585\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4852.254379713833\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4852.254348662223\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4852.254348662227\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4852.254348662223\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A200>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73719.30035881922\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57019.35669208709\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45303.26121670292\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35954.19857432806\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24543.42559347321\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6785.220685268747\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6798.428317051428\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6706.0340372766805\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4871.807582436012\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6286.019324775167\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4860.73230049899\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4856.008625667723\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4919.445678510506\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4853.8645885543865\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4853.646775600351\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4853.625250535184\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4853.623842111172\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4853.623829935207\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4853.623819172815\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4853.623819172815\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4853.623819172815\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A500>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71201.22774981715\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57084.15747800225\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45340.91790489594\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36011.78779566748\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24532.383234962188\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6789.246670105792\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6799.105956660902\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6710.821361227167\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4873.947049480226\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6288.953448884289\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4862.864419724728\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4858.056692648437\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4915.559015126319\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4855.880162689768\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4855.6557084057085\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4855.633250908127\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4855.631749477813\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4855.631737575682\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4855.63172617434\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4855.63172617434\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4855.63172617434\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A680>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71164.34308349376\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57001.20038239892\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45196.24543145777\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 35982.36481371339\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24575.973400429437\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6791.9709487107075\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6804.270871121973\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6717.376930549992\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4875.247278874232\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6290.357204309788\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4864.4197055376035\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4859.446582616632\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4911.059393449761\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4857.381578950639\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4857.0890351993185\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4857.070564462387\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4857.070392202994\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4857.069402323977\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4857.06938315178\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4857.06938315178\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4857.06938315178\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCCA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69272.32264502645\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57172.34614246077\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45004.58357036183\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36058.673476804004\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 23000.163869362896\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6752.513323668163\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6851.293065659258\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6324.981497551627\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4884.07623962\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6497.259004529575\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4876.921213770194\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4861.689241773196\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6434.386396141914\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4858.94839623163\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4858.537717529736\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4858.544263060341\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4858.503696472392\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4858.501439749889\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4858.501322062915\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4858.500870711863\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 4858.500869741043\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4858.500869741043\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A56C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 72155.19374156804\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57196.09248336817\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45575.4808745269\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36006.851432389594\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24554.32646181577\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6797.491106581391\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6805.778961540296\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6738.031412915088\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4880.669802931308\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6292.916523148238\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4869.616364534038\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4865.073292188132\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4945.848495497648\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4862.711279686622\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4862.59171144568\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4862.569498652465\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4862.567518566548\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4862.56738313238\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4862.567333987332\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4862.567333987341\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4862.567333987332\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A7520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73656.82734895733\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57278.395973036284\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45615.706471133766\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36010.91905092272\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24563.716908251048\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6799.655507664984\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6793.619214080783\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6765.833321748927\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4882.394991407244\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6292.844738923654\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4871.606153819323\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4866.976222946406\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4926.963170142105\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4864.573073842357\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4864.402323034536\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4864.378096835101\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4864.376040933263\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4864.375979077915\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4864.375939588979\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4864.375939588981\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4864.375939588979\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAF50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73774.91158907361\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57349.85094159775\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45140.96631335157\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36348.2895498159\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24546.726732762276\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6803.755941328102\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6788.220740475365\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6767.898783011375\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4884.300874672194\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6295.9889711831465\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4873.97390501059\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4868.875139849412\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4917.628485244693\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4866.469269749894\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4866.217991150191\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4866.19088038743\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4866.188708052042\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4866.188685788875\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4866.188662646713\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4866.188662646709\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4866.188662646713\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 73335.18422324528\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57412.818434633016\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44793.58666141411\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36473.35264140389\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 24573.26357788347\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6804.8358912376025\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6781.266148871085\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6793.811209229642\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 4885.565390253451\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6294.229530967934\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 4875.576685255117\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 4870.254478574769\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 4908.163202354729\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4868.049946974444\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4867.636245664615\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4867.616409418454\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4867.617256960972\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4867.612733013261\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4867.612707224487\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4867.612705551788\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4867.612705551788\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4867.612705551788\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9420>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 59458.276178664855\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 56054.415631314565\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 11608.676214014527\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8926.716808795687\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 11554.284298583312\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 7362.4479892336385\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6731.35466362453\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6699.331266204934\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4893.781375154152\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 6503.116190972092\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 4885.000287406676\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4870.441893251487\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4870.29735121873\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    165,   Neg. LLF: 4869.059754057691\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4869.11045655678\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    186,   Neg. LLF: 4869.034732925535\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    196,   Neg. LLF: 4869.032100421504\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    206,   Neg. LLF: 4869.032007059971\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 4869.032004976507\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4869.032004976511\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4869.032004976507\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880220>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 58775.949335599085\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 54882.38073318814\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 11882.640424236512\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10099.78678999592\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     65,   Neg. LLF: 11103.525241601776\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     77,   Neg. LLF: 7379.05417245102\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     89,   Neg. LLF: 6727.361387801573\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:    100,   Neg. LLF: 6668.899339263717\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    111,   Neg. LLF: 4892.799146751403\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    122,   Neg. LLF: 6515.127334634892\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    133,   Neg. LLF: 4886.648528107382\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    144,   Neg. LLF: 4872.563295731891\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    155,   Neg. LLF: 4871.303741927559\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    166,   Neg. LLF: 4870.479195409278\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    176,   Neg. LLF: 4870.489355922314\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    187,   Neg. LLF: 4870.449183900791\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    197,   Neg. LLF: 4870.446602268746\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    207,   Neg. LLF: 4870.446392476431\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    217,   Neg. LLF: 4870.446384332374\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    226,   Neg. LLF: 4870.446384332377\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4870.446384332374\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 226\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883FA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62464.081779074564\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 56084.75800389299\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 11920.46216902956\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10428.015021952291\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     65,   Neg. LLF: 11001.008813452425\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     77,   Neg. LLF: 7384.265286265587\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     89,   Neg. LLF: 6732.329519519222\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:    100,   Neg. LLF: 6673.360115131073\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    111,   Neg. LLF: 4894.56484530683\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    122,   Neg. LLF: 6517.95634035471\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    133,   Neg. LLF: 4888.4529617444305\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    144,   Neg. LLF: 4874.3823495913\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    155,   Neg. LLF: 4873.14267918406\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    166,   Neg. LLF: 4872.294131699958\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    176,   Neg. LLF: 4872.306429979002\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    187,   Neg. LLF: 4872.26437795299\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    197,   Neg. LLF: 4872.26170379066\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    207,   Neg. LLF: 4872.261492517693\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    217,   Neg. LLF: 4872.261484252662\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    226,   Neg. LLF: 4872.2614842526655\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4872.261484252662\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 226\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB0A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 59525.48195533836\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57897.33494432239\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 12212.836612317928\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11080.707944222773\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 10560.079105401184\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 7378.45987933932\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6740.827519892497\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6671.147457635732\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4896.531693316444\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 6526.665030669088\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 4890.103844817631\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4875.527822501323\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4875.62036457027\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    165,   Neg. LLF: 4873.87713164649\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4873.976571546735\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    186,   Neg. LLF: 4873.847496542653\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    196,   Neg. LLF: 4873.847340514296\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    206,   Neg. LLF: 4873.847325820059\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 4873.84731453946\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4873.847314539455\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4873.84731453946\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B250>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67773.94432652705\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 55357.468827875884\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 12986.10572457469\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11330.258736267835\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 9785.707926424147\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 7396.054075371121\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6739.167990656467\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6663.794494917682\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4896.878666449108\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 6538.957813813925\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 4891.45546720231\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4877.019174355402\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4877.148587194442\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    165,   Neg. LLF: 4875.172153950029\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4875.23117578849\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    186,   Neg. LLF: 4875.139709348381\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    196,   Neg. LLF: 4875.139385271434\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    206,   Neg. LLF: 4875.138854551434\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 4875.138853075136\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4875.138853075127\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4875.138853075136\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39287F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 58927.18519037092\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57890.72537542226\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 13313.712077528213\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 11209.347983518284\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 9430.921552186706\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 7416.679392656455\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6739.819085854155\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6665.469460862202\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4898.450604084364\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 6549.466447108447\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 4893.078399520653\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4878.5232489150985\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4879.12092406905\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    165,   Neg. LLF: 4876.74680388811\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4876.769650702156\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    186,   Neg. LLF: 4876.7110097449295\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    196,   Neg. LLF: 4876.709676549851\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    206,   Neg. LLF: 4876.709279501478\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 4876.709276173122\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4876.709276173109\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4876.709276173122\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAD40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67283.19400913196\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 54646.829097191956\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 14826.812178100918\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10901.602822518376\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 8138.515231807332\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 7500.665948806102\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6733.698989429458\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6662.9134891586555\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4899.866914156952\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 6557.207607462351\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 4894.534801809179\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4879.587523848648\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4887.070902359583\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    165,   Neg. LLF: 4878.084427097516\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4878.028461039006\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4878.008340690294\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4878.003191874605\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4878.0024561350965\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4878.002385169853\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 4878.002384219407\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4878.002384219407\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9E10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66854.82434796328\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 58052.30645815939\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 39776.18605727865\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10659.57532699575\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 6982.1555142368225\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     77,   Neg. LLF: 7667.013328770165\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     89,   Neg. LLF: 6744.618138889399\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:    100,   Neg. LLF: 6702.545170795669\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    111,   Neg. LLF: 4902.066955276656\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    122,   Neg. LLF: 5067.526082832189\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    133,   Neg. LLF: 4896.257435509425\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    144,   Neg. LLF: 4879.387908117367\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4879.929956739772\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    165,   Neg. LLF: 4879.298119996449\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4879.281042524786\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4879.279840423753\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4879.279858511332\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    206,   Neg. LLF: 4879.279758996258\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4879.279758996257\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4879.279758996258\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 215\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAD40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 57112.11384415778\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57045.75502507607\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 39762.112702713326\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10090.845463974674\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 6919.319468386802\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     77,   Neg. LLF: 7815.067970784008\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     89,   Neg. LLF: 6743.4199326451035\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:    100,   Neg. LLF: 6706.944352691207\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    111,   Neg. LLF: 4904.696791426267\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    122,   Neg. LLF: 4960.281518202501\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    133,   Neg. LLF: 4897.593502004849\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    144,   Neg. LLF: 4880.625226482354\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4881.428759521602\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    165,   Neg. LLF: 4880.541425893398\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4880.510409934612\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4880.504095609229\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4880.502998915816\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4880.502955301633\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4880.502953306779\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4880.502953306785\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4880.502953306779\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAFE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66110.34852591381\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 58135.485449322994\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 39722.17418448745\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9329.291358021394\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7349.927552649262\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6797.75494057319\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 6810.460070333487\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 6798.527418144211\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 4903.474510111051\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 4891.229773479419\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 4892.213060250644\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 4883.380785598081\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4882.281277266013\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4881.741344300742\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4881.730154771408\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4881.729133011828\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4881.729100557532\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4881.729094992075\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4881.729094992101\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4881.729094992075\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD720>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 58568.64745750444\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 58204.84118665887\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 39721.18700374845\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8417.046271860745\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9007.55110300423\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6892.177253459946\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6736.443501948215\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6702.379043215682\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4906.441210994524\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 6500.947776314799\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4901.945393574612\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4884.688491281351\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4900.618717034345\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4882.970078850672\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4882.949930165998\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4882.945517919814\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4882.943203714147\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4882.94316300756\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4882.943158882723\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4882.9431588827165\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4882.943158882723\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDD20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 57738.66681051741\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 58291.63149880001\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 39659.776625983715\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8293.767212192728\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9387.449583883254\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6902.612389966327\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6735.636584191401\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6721.8855931508715\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4908.663304991158\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 5081.142406411172\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4903.954324935463\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4886.47072384632\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4892.530367025037\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4884.670136978871\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4884.65589473606\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4884.644993087426\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4884.643646453011\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4884.643586688886\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4884.643580905014\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4884.643580905002\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4884.643580905014\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCA00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60336.08570331914\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 54723.586884058794\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 39684.96198314967\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7762.325429682531\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 11791.911843357115\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 6941.97921489338\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6736.862876903396\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6672.284075933741\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4907.811319542234\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 6544.549878326528\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 4904.789287307013\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4887.730043505533\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4889.494034538486\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    165,   Neg. LLF: 4886.032132042341\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4886.035292809316\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    186,   Neg. LLF: 4886.0088185644845\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    196,   Neg. LLF: 4886.008453030958\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    206,   Neg. LLF: 4886.008447098744\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4886.008447098737\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4886.008447098744\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 215\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65457.046179532685\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 56399.938076996856\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 39386.62571423725\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8161.689328389624\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 10311.79124489212\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 7002.850768476888\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6746.956826517876\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6661.446294452733\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4908.0003198149\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 6584.996644935208\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 4905.861663033296\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4888.777919640867\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4889.297827470911\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    165,   Neg. LLF: 4887.218401592262\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4887.192389958516\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4887.180788184014\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4887.180344706885\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4887.180316796754\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4887.180315758649\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4887.180315758636\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4887.180315758649\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF3D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 57387.742681261734\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57543.529609705685\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 39405.669541842755\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9029.59908557624\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9168.349953373752\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6993.149865060508\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6749.581060041612\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6664.0567301382725\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4909.768535774859\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 6579.247010948957\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4907.328905791968\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4889.8880318837255\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4897.037237921043\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4888.548048729781\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4888.521475548379\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4888.5006793764705\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4888.497558565536\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4888.497354275125\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4888.497337596824\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4888.497337596794\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4888.497337596824\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A080>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65541.51598832177\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 57932.42621022065\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 39445.76672191037\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 7966.748446882666\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 10901.279785921079\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     76,   Neg. LLF: 7009.886805881852\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     88,   Neg. LLF: 6754.344605509137\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     99,   Neg. LLF: 6656.63002566982\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    110,   Neg. LLF: 4911.182041019483\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    121,   Neg. LLF: 6586.766131493764\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    132,   Neg. LLF: 4909.023445465169\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    143,   Neg. LLF: 4892.393109984069\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    154,   Neg. LLF: 4892.549080701263\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    165,   Neg. LLF: 4890.741070663747\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    175,   Neg. LLF: 4890.712363857569\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 4890.703392842879\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 4890.702981341537\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 4890.702956975816\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 4890.702956028923\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4890.702956028923\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 215\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882D40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 57574.34163010688\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 58415.18374550797\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 39471.01121402365\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 8741.994862362582\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 9457.648352378059\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6999.558812727417\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6755.146182156914\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6674.753647642263\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4912.946417542416\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 6587.4149511667665\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4910.717186026417\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4893.562714340416\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    153,   Neg. LLF: 4895.813833017282\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    164,   Neg. LLF: 4892.108730752407\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 4892.096871653797\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 4892.07477966589\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4892.073928667189\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4892.073854319762\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4892.073852373158\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4892.073852373143\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4892.073852373158\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A6B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61143.19761360444\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 58483.33540092268\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 39126.826085590576\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 9437.583589198968\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8936.259417510668\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 6988.503293459889\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     87,   Neg. LLF: 6761.4211237992695\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     98,   Neg. LLF: 6666.96441206666\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    109,   Neg. LLF: 4914.794066028544\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    120,   Neg. LLF: 6583.296295042399\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    131,   Neg. LLF: 4911.993483048151\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    142,   Neg. LLF: 4894.287137891515\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 4912.724072946992\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 4893.57054930907\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4893.3477342161195\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4893.348366846855\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 4893.3434299325745\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4893.3431625368885\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 4893.3431363652235\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 4893.343132868624\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4893.343132868631\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4893.343132868624\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CEC80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62422.74304687688\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58291.29996697836\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43165.83157032589\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 12924.805391916609\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6855.216790841946\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6859.837302560365\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6824.177597873299\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6880.039419966217\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4920.757419418263\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6131.619540213825\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4906.236083941058\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4902.666161519552\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4923.543361261907\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 4905.471114592302\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 4901.944099584844\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4901.937643751761\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4901.937663855061\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 4901.9375731915\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4901.937573191484\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4901.9375731915\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 213\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 58554.777804558114\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57044.04941581398\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42392.45677688292\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 10821.595518411885\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 7501.029042953996\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6877.538894207986\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6861.730986450766\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 5401.193829296008\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 6420.778869481296\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 5105.787665806367\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 4907.822834261224\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    136,   Neg. LLF: 4932.341497676831\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    147,   Neg. LLF: 5081.075957060708\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4955.068890695298\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4922.928836121166\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4904.172149488375\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4905.60853880376\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4904.080104458069\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4903.995627194171\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4903.987138235882\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4903.985271328864\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4903.984687062428\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 4903.984675916669\n",
      "Iteration:     24,   Func. Count:    261,   Neg. LLF: 4903.984675916687\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4903.984675916669\n",
      "            Iterations: 24\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 261\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 24\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE6E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62719.68835199799\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54068.93111733961\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41385.615702593466\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 10503.419120245944\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 7735.316057891972\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6942.52329081147\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6814.591886020003\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 9807.031929260993\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 6683.750965769439\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 4940.2719079171\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 5064.639290081148\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 4920.909963240329\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 4915.211699610469\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 4907.095238722279\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 6166.085002460963\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4906.5897421450445\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4906.052459581775\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4906.041140272073\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4906.0401216423315\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4906.039366551397\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4906.0393644896485\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 4906.03936448965\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4906.0393644896485\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABF70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 55291.1726886463\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52710.713298218056\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41422.83552738644\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 12258.558366367706\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7527.7865039851\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6990.678848425261\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6783.160377467214\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6867.37421980416\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6645.1864591798485\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4943.5538941481955\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6475.779709447717\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4912.9307266834\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4934.9607360502\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4908.498315651785\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4908.112400057318\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4909.001029040155\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4907.9207694539145\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4907.919196043925\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4907.918719501193\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4907.9186962787535\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4907.918692160425\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    240,   Neg. LLF: 4907.918692160418\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4907.918692160425\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 240\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A88B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 58354.76774667623\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54691.06274717816\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41497.286446799335\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 11901.377898554016\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7544.702815699411\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 6995.488311552221\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6802.543542919999\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6874.131525650132\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6655.319684695494\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4947.919407584466\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6470.770312598494\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4919.852875483563\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4932.019750785572\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4911.431752468739\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4911.006579723646\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4912.316790741267\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4910.739820265209\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4910.736979722524\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4910.7365757019625\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4910.736430467179\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4910.736427636245\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    240,   Neg. LLF: 4910.736427636241\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4910.736427636245\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 240\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB280>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62838.59493708947\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54269.16916471551\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41689.099043740265\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 12826.64640671017\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7543.489609435138\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7003.149088247577\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6790.214406092523\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6794.663449341015\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4985.801477310936\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4950.192519267625\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6485.889350805899\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4916.914172678835\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4960.468005899491\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4913.619303930231\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4913.012927609936\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4912.973580783184\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4912.970058241578\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4912.969845365363\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4912.969805855632\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4912.969799092663\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4912.969798195685\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4912.969798195685\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB640>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 56741.38015443392\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57162.255672780535\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41785.63331091426\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 14071.003524595752\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7655.416302979014\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7019.595134537837\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6774.599366538698\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6686.755474368089\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 4944.221598375241\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6651.734943480305\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 4934.722689528122\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4919.440936759985\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4915.814696938364\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4915.350529606253\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4915.076303343883\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4915.063630631024\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4915.062186119644\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4915.061688927521\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4915.061637854994\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4915.061636536899\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4915.061636536894\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4915.061636536899\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A95A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 56553.30686739821\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57183.093671547074\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41892.9933841935\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41581.78043910646\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7912.359032387116\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7043.689639562367\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6684.3046151786575\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6648.528705798963\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6625.418722155454\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4939.141989715766\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6450.967903379566\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4920.4720828294585\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4928.643744664323\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4918.941455082304\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4917.031248467535\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4916.917852891207\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4916.913120564328\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4916.912160476235\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4916.9119421760915\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4916.911920022119\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4916.911917268759\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    240,   Neg. LLF: 4916.911917268755\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4916.911917268759\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 240\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB040>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62971.602310802904\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54672.57616367321\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42025.517460210816\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 18863.672911402733\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7890.233247394628\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7049.974779892544\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6700.817681543185\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6647.818358272027\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5250.731419606096\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4942.810523349919\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6469.257003687773\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4922.896966150429\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5005.226716486283\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4921.633319580831\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4919.653915425755\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4919.5718621670785\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4919.568120082554\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4919.5672718648675\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4919.567038633084\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4919.567011043974\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4919.567011043984\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4919.567011043974\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5030>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 59618.15235097952\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53812.52876409712\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42117.788581694185\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41408.45256965302\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7921.029176736045\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7057.833438857835\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6695.6874261675675\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6654.741463346757\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6631.43685345576\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4943.963451126296\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6437.563013590475\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4925.179312256281\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4926.780721923392\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4923.335240781846\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4921.506800892645\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4921.429453888279\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4921.426115776173\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4921.42516772265\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4921.424959981337\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4921.424940895455\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4921.424940895475\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4921.424940895455\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A680>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63155.46331684817\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55016.37919641989\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42133.71965641484\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41435.5493570971\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7925.34794919945\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7062.409349280055\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6698.937295244821\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6648.210367042713\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6635.657173720365\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4944.838152754151\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6435.26454350232\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4926.759896332238\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4927.96260827601\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4924.942142670686\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4923.1422555953895\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4923.073590279902\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4923.070218264959\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4923.06917255962\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4923.068960049931\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4923.068938101474\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4923.068938101483\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4923.068938101474\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392BBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 58647.599654057325\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53888.858571433215\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42185.360214275934\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41406.885755374875\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7927.6793991874\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7066.926631331895\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6701.439548231176\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6647.659315861165\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6636.973606569691\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4946.296517646089\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6430.77489501927\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4928.30879914499\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4928.784649394849\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4926.519262631202\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4924.729162986835\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4924.671627797106\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4924.667809739567\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4924.666532517538\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4924.6662957342705\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4924.66626472795\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4924.666264298332\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4924.666264298332\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928D30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 53674.42295451138\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53675.59404347306\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42184.97057880425\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41454.819728114686\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7933.660510119171\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7071.219592862984\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6705.252337159542\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6652.1359589516\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6640.470675044355\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4948.649223302205\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6432.950512755264\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4930.444833038974\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4930.770876450509\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4928.586648814163\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4926.813306337965\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4926.7568874219705\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4926.752968283457\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4926.75163828396\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4926.751400408339\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4926.751366388024\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4926.751365961818\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4926.751365961818\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387EA70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 54336.63797108116\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55503.63686711101\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42273.59192274985\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41392.537601819306\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7936.655964393432\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7075.76541656688\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6707.627693353703\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6652.5321100948795\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6640.477436021016\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4950.174746859222\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6430.816669603312\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4931.901561570954\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4932.133013271392\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4930.123636607066\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4928.359673491224\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4928.306588709156\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4928.302364103072\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4928.300930316371\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4928.300678963855\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4928.300641741484\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4928.300641275391\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4928.300641275391\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E710>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63293.01972314397\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52988.70730428588\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42280.925371998805\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41425.21578824475\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7941.225179279467\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7081.878921076077\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6712.811833351629\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6651.675499277236\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6646.013907859599\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4952.135247709417\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6427.86339836523\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4933.954886361443\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4933.736343090663\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4932.1141412339\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4930.387834842371\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4930.346535546889\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4930.34211017419\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4930.3406257526\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4930.340393541038\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4930.34035019861\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4930.340349781776\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4930.340349781776\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D600>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 54099.72135347423\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53170.72322571429\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42352.41275435574\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41415.32781202007\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7944.490471081515\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7083.348702226847\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6715.217660722616\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6655.257395513132\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6650.666091471451\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4954.522204719871\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6428.948400874186\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4936.274150693016\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4936.014416627564\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4934.382529829739\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4932.65896623857\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4932.618945122953\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4932.614652606459\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4932.613211868542\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4932.612990600473\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4932.612948863198\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4932.612948863185\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4932.612948863198\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CE50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 54562.19934910044\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55580.47991887898\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42275.93870959074\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41522.2365586058\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7948.369591799121\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7091.421832186703\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6720.3299271971455\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6651.894840230421\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6654.509731024101\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4955.413623341185\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6426.118907347443\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4937.809393101263\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4937.123788009812\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4935.92550664915\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4934.2401239103465\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4934.208574514121\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4934.204265745453\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4934.202903214666\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4934.202695966374\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4934.202655863057\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4934.202655863048\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4934.202655863057\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CD30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63382.04198636463\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56647.154651167744\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42268.71446966048\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41569.62466857884\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7951.84141823228\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7094.140319066972\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6722.004741903413\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6651.867285949895\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6656.270334873415\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4956.882369286792\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6427.30666567632\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4939.197651848233\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4938.443621867784\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4937.38215648894\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4935.711096056511\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4935.681352446886\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4935.676918056226\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4935.675584985211\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4935.675377666368\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4935.675338616576\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4935.6753386165665\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4935.675338616576\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B070>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63401.30590132354\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57473.1769722036\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42289.83019665256\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41583.265894544\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7955.704770259049\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7099.725140681845\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6726.48627596305\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6652.322123040658\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6661.11447105179\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4958.886962493686\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6425.305998803026\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4941.229028149707\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4940.33583965811\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4939.372481722754\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4937.7358740462405\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4937.709745532122\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4937.705378273913\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4937.704102334821\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4937.703905372151\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4937.703867231803\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4937.703867231795\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4937.703867231803\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CEE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63463.04484116682\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57503.11675661111\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42460.53719496314\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41463.57364725316\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7959.514117290815\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7108.016022004102\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6731.867477566523\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6654.503450113764\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6663.413604983295\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 4960.540676170047\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6423.515578798201\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 4942.845780425694\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4942.01134293122\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4941.008199411723\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4939.413879177296\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4939.389336062574\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4939.384924683882\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4939.383685431217\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4939.383492171972\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4939.383453771181\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4939.383453771174\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4939.383453771181\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C430>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60341.087242922615\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58591.57904221093\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44958.30503879298\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36451.73296378125\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 22403.11039431297\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6877.351106216529\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6960.511709002441\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6461.7683775380865\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4972.963345142924\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6530.89511581847\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4947.263442447448\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4943.337458904743\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6465.408744125329\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4941.551612920568\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4941.146916335612\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4941.10014351162\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4941.08943746297\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4941.087614572065\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4941.087451794556\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4941.087445950763\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4941.087445950746\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4941.087445950763\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5030>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60301.2710370151\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58765.76774753746\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45071.00779113314\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36450.556306198385\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6926.767039247248\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6961.039188566824\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6930.511406756377\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4982.981947229318\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6718.562287722451\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4984.504622692152\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6346.269708868209\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4946.671658414208\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4943.850682283017\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4943.5630278785875\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4942.534055786493\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4942.538911610827\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4942.508782597691\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4942.508384519108\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4942.508303322804\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4942.508299396344\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4942.508299396352\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4942.508299396344\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF9D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63388.38275958772\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58067.467185218076\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45122.167976462064\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36452.7243845066\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6916.077333492556\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6983.067877703219\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6918.676668279783\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6952.048593741851\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4965.971389195884\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4986.672965865229\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4949.504573430125\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4949.395958932144\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4945.838600582883\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4944.838601707984\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4944.0905552407075\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4944.076105494221\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4944.072838544171\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4944.071593761598\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4944.071535130994\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4944.071524158426\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4944.071524158415\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4944.071524158426\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928D30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63434.61804794028\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58827.320076333155\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45185.99092237413\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36447.06026415785\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6922.84578614786\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6995.304740454752\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6921.420608812362\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6948.710854312132\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4965.668719842955\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5811.766521614299\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4952.572003175419\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4946.127413847391\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4965.292816969632\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4948.513966701681\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4945.49963652054\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4945.539111177435\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4945.481688579722\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4945.480300397323\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4945.480276528619\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4945.480274984891\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4945.4802749849005\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4945.480274984891\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A080>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63475.71689692634\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58876.83716844237\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45193.823471767115\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36472.47545029063\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6930.613352422786\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7007.858031072063\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6926.558951543411\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6947.733021701075\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4966.874983780259\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5832.776239512126\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4953.583111212574\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4947.5699809915695\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4966.754724790069\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4954.186441933038\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4947.277706974888\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4946.920330484998\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4946.9186789633595\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4946.91834345047\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4946.9183264948115\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4946.918325546833\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4946.918325546833\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF2E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63465.96874224079\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58957.37790825589\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45228.45350552534\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36465.07254056218\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6927.747227690637\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6997.637039031416\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6927.043332773026\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6956.641256866789\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4969.397262357831\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5000.0634076600745\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4957.513261500631\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4950.421387193555\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4971.208168636209\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4950.242397009533\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4949.640617459287\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4949.8522635427635\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4949.525805748021\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4949.520962848928\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4949.520842861\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4949.520835562423\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4949.520835562425\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4949.520835562423\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9840>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61312.35365557996\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58991.78718005139\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45316.64493433452\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36431.40242987851\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6932.185616368759\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7003.14810727478\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6928.831894497684\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6953.173898489972\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4970.355038786545\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5871.296276166417\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4958.080794667987\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4951.603974749199\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4971.387126861181\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4957.845333666963\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4951.2211883412965\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4950.922433236222\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4950.920340618498\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4950.9199609648695\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4950.919946799395\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4950.919946417474\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4950.919946417474\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA560>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62695.588501281236\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59025.2314486707\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45258.706785672985\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36492.01789135688\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6937.005938070912\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7010.384817047157\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6932.053058974333\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6950.8914276581145\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4972.321868614035\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5889.905797235069\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4958.575905141064\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4953.12766303233\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4953.506911869898\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4998.52645970132\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4952.40257820262\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 4952.2122920966885\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4952.210220365727\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4952.210081950772\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4952.21006744793\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4952.210066235217\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4952.210066235221\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4952.210066235217\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAEC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63597.76285577684\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58973.60353263286\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45325.9122674737\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36480.31219265073\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6935.843635755863\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7003.491124119833\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6935.147675880473\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6963.616091569182\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4974.89519103971\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5846.807336263964\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4962.184429607856\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4955.656069200558\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4974.975748903798\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4958.204535440745\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4955.009171706875\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4955.005575488904\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4955.008887679291\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4954.990727396699\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4954.990702855391\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4954.99070110705\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4954.990701107059\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4954.99070110705\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8E80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63642.696710212396\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59117.65039754167\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45541.36572660075\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36415.73956142072\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6938.89105145119\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7006.053095154646\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6934.871016568293\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6959.144484134751\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4976.662165790113\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5907.871887400737\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4963.3000974055385\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4957.132019323326\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 4978.244016085347\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4979.619101666796\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4957.132311587309\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4956.392504287925\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4956.390755159984\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4956.390662628957\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4956.390630027152\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4956.3906279193525\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4956.390627919357\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4956.3906279193525\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29E40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61598.33035033105\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59173.79129387521\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45340.982209326816\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36556.936041450565\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6938.696409541839\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7003.974911138921\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6940.37151181997\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6972.765115874344\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 4980.272058189226\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4966.795570121651\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6162.0484232117615\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4961.563666066262\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4960.760826708734\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4959.606449171297\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4959.506361815589\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4959.506393812895\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4959.477863322161\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4959.477764083002\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4959.4777550713225\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4959.477753592799\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4959.477753592816\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4959.477753592799\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA590>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63639.88965477988\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59134.96369440634\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45386.78225958667\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36562.78509346456\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6946.714357490069\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7019.304910357028\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6958.532996435232\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 4989.567503523796\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5259.858989436027\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4972.225259450459\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4992.681307092127\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4965.766856765718\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5012.366293685149\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4964.257776730762\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4964.184925721843\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4964.177752908634\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4964.177140986654\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4964.177076166506\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4964.177030139264\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4964.177029396973\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4964.177029396973\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882890>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63759.705469772874\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59037.523912627934\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45400.073395131956\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36592.319406036506\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6954.134564520951\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7039.662803882289\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6970.067183113455\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5038.557779426488\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5248.810736381578\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5007.376931147046\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6385.9403538138595\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4970.792908822356\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4990.662975965468\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4968.08697970064\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4967.096008164318\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4967.032978272551\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4967.001668644655\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4966.9960776972985\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4966.995331661004\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4966.995312102632\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4966.995308941723\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4966.995308941721\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4966.995308941723\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A86A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62397.63888577377\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59215.12530857314\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45718.71392665453\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36470.61754149593\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6954.594220581648\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7033.53385122999\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6971.744566325418\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5016.658424713077\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6748.9851688969975\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5011.110666093924\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6336.035232959881\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4972.620460656637\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4983.41516637062\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4969.869621676238\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4968.923176623193\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4968.906112829654\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4968.872081137966\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4968.869110214715\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4968.8690183546405\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4968.868972326731\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 4968.868971540424\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4968.868971540424\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA290>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63779.75619419095\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59242.37882262191\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45479.89504278027\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36600.02659773502\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6953.591203314848\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7029.920894954819\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6971.747915344647\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5004.503716941544\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6793.352418943677\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5014.128016765666\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6320.0229986955\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4974.524217363136\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4971.395845631061\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4970.6621014492775\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4970.504240074721\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4970.578948784925\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4970.459449367623\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4970.457971440663\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4970.457806320047\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4970.457799769609\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4970.457799769581\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4970.457799769609\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A2F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61872.793136201544\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59263.85313006313\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45381.579921029865\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36656.39509218459\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6956.599083233657\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7033.119602565934\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6977.767356732051\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5028.820788513756\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6746.02700877445\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5014.27330878817\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6390.672079589041\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4976.581282953722\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4995.522793817966\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4973.767746117493\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4972.808393793576\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4972.765153658244\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4972.7299443298\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4972.725168373623\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4972.724357975005\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4972.724334233006\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4972.724327259748\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4972.72432725975\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4972.724327259748\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B790>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61586.93326410143\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59288.409317818274\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45464.97349917073\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36649.66079068465\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6956.836928026016\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7033.9802898039015\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6974.340238159634\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5000.177779127377\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6850.805501024304\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5626.002797019784\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4979.04006823134\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4975.256208715342\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5001.159619414528\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4974.243594598533\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4974.308246204471\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4974.24715468491\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4974.23937250542\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4974.239354913203\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4974.239354913201\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4974.239354913203\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CEE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63417.15848440357\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59301.85293141014\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45372.53610764483\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36744.435828836766\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6960.101972163023\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7038.351445062545\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6979.498726082098\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5012.609757643708\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6793.261480212224\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5019.665457240833\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6350.634571200943\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4980.545344112985\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4977.664817801016\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4976.874703155845\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4976.400761973513\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4976.404442350644\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4976.381267969728\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4976.380975727979\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4976.380956526012\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4976.380955356042\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4976.3809553560495\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4976.380955356042\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387DC30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61277.70360000863\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58830.83742506649\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45468.673547678554\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36728.21279983032\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6962.97829433416\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7044.034087629568\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6976.781576328687\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5000.376976118705\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6695.304602818136\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5024.237173390184\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5701.488512488725\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4981.996785485762\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4978.5023025319315\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4978.015761416305\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 4977.930622499103\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 4977.893899680481\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 4977.883451729777\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 4977.882070060945\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 4977.881947158223\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 4977.8819440690095\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    229,   Neg. LLF: 4977.881944069004\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4977.8819440690095\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 229\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCA00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63139.62037090694\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59352.883715021424\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45469.33129995169\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36757.251937988156\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6966.9453988152\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7052.388737867612\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6975.754799217525\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5008.277876754594\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5327.492002179802\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4984.675083331415\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5005.498658186629\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4980.763780784869\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4983.058745331549\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4979.365631232291\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4979.318097232326\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4979.306104084914\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4979.30210751565\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4979.301667371021\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4979.301602782769\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4979.30157273821\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 4979.301572022814\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4979.301572022814\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCCA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64047.36027393676\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59350.627679679434\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45506.0381006782\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36748.05837448359\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6967.402406837103\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7047.717697789569\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6983.6610979663565\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5008.598419658566\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6856.492308308264\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5081.191321433638\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4987.067780098175\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4983.67927776801\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5022.963434675174\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4982.070004165022\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4982.0318982290955\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4982.024852184788\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 4982.022344191364\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 4982.020727238445\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 4982.020600500078\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4982.020590873137\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 4982.020590873135\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4982.020590873137\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC2E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62358.705282716764\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59360.10640385827\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45655.1563233949\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36772.8475878055\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6971.039251853952\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7050.080340011484\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6987.233036462086\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5008.73792896986\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6877.977211597243\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5504.0283371528685\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4988.87962606898\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4984.839932477496\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5010.390161716255\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4985.5650991988505\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4984.019270218758\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4984.025836843675\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4984.002295115716\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4984.001460143893\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4984.001457244431\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4984.00145724446\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4984.001457244431\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64120.00300519984\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59377.22231276297\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45487.60836224049\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36820.455293904015\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6975.832409324112\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7059.68850613605\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6989.740704214675\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5010.580836817375\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6876.429473548253\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5433.2738710860485\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 4990.505439888504\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4986.387677276143\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5013.54112429192\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 4987.018607828068\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4985.5642605162275\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 4985.573271857711\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4985.542657605818\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4985.541969945757\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4985.541965435577\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 4985.541965435601\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4985.541965435577\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A5F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63128.382745937546\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59378.5833748388\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45486.03547108047\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36832.32532592237\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6978.100312572615\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7062.616713791204\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6995.734392811826\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5033.845839380143\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6784.784397579547\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5030.153115116204\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6385.192232983831\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4992.0134313418375\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4997.241593909068\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4988.871752044617\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4987.9268102069445\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4987.882314209214\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4987.864518246974\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4987.859128829092\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4987.858415359055\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4987.858355973801\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4987.858348823338\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4987.858348823346\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4987.858348823338\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28D90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61168.161439768824\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59382.615192934645\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45669.8443511926\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36849.30425249676\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6982.613623021912\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7066.912575675369\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 6997.902722864446\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5020.017295334776\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6836.127557094845\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 4998.825177440634\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6207.338811313246\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4991.915113136911\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4999.0361899744785\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4989.688424885831\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 4989.691078023364\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4989.644837202775\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 4989.601083362219\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 4989.6006254144795\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 4989.600612388065\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 4989.60061148208\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4989.60061148208\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29F00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61523.74840296579\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58851.05061429604\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45434.727397483875\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36926.46880365529\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6986.072934206819\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7071.396726320356\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7003.168728336085\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5036.703841952714\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6788.683485327885\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5033.851836909786\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6373.847160278254\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4995.912826866772\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 4998.643312867776\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4992.6650369796025\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4991.644158525985\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4991.591559830127\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4991.580442296506\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4991.574274421521\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4991.573856114534\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4991.573788616683\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4991.573784313002\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4991.573784313009\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4991.573784313002\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C290F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64252.094179531705\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59435.23422024569\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45501.54404155956\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36905.465538781675\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6988.94940397939\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7075.927200526437\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7009.80010912915\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5092.024379369446\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5128.871764503639\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5034.845741699431\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6511.63936285037\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4998.296338910737\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5015.884848796464\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4994.962008864826\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4994.0732286847815\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4993.922772143933\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4993.904013088729\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4993.895051071333\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4993.894459630128\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4993.894433468002\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4993.894432957013\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4993.894432957013\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28DC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64298.16767063223\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59443.75037639767\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45729.892744068486\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36901.871986037266\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6993.116457273041\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7082.065730243402\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7010.262662376117\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5050.657800600335\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6781.222783948644\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5037.266960020916\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6389.56161479689\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 4999.843879366221\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5018.3927147954255\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4996.55634961585\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4995.585317720694\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4995.506147745914\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4995.476788728047\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4995.469828694655\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4995.469210606785\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4995.469158924316\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4995.469151914291\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4995.469151914286\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4995.469151914291\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A4A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 61099.48650084947\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59497.10467144151\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45619.871207561984\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 36939.14860665727\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 6996.878778134313\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7086.3346070180505\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7015.308423867031\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5068.439806951339\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5403.6410229890835\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5039.014826061279\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6438.046634115459\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5002.014192680681\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5020.4631592954975\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 4998.655339309057\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 4997.694839203742\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 4997.585132055076\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 4997.558513032788\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 4997.551201687003\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 4997.550722928807\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 4997.550693249979\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 4997.5506896739635\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 4997.550689673954\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 4997.5506896739635\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B5B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 56498.144808143996\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 52756.56507655042\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43120.21472445487\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 42011.05382644344\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8052.515085115694\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7238.775259040998\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6839.0797773706345\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6695.65676254414\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6764.262941620546\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5022.860916050191\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6458.270262440214\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5006.644334392671\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5005.851094733653\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5004.293549491122\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5003.923512252279\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5003.895618924417\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5003.893759262945\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5003.892733508589\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5003.892630493112\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5003.89260409155\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5003.89260409155\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5003.89260409155\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5480>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60762.12140302604\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56586.22273768007\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43746.621540663655\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41617.45305741613\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8092.331413971844\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7224.174189864567\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6845.936581393533\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6637.295476483848\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6789.763007953579\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5025.760776495932\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5026.505493143499\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5009.226946120038\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5009.602284786537\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5007.218243554746\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5006.741881732554\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5006.717126583731\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5006.715260306541\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5006.71414647992\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5006.714085208696\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5006.714065130707\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5006.7140651307145\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5006.714065130707\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64626.27928366221\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58296.12873466028\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43945.23145270857\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41508.33435025542\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8105.314422029951\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7217.951434269857\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6849.329776898323\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6616.19507885565\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6798.680483312523\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5028.320617112569\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5021.429557106169\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5011.545825091164\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5010.373709953621\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5009.409519770288\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5009.071096478336\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5009.037526787915\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5009.036357394707\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5009.035779147522\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5009.0357419974\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5009.035731034822\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5009.035731034834\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5009.035731034822\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C280A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 56538.25217465121\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58330.42404290444\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43426.015175282475\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41904.512064854964\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8077.701139434689\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7258.919237907671\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6856.075901890796\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6690.437477447059\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6781.146745416219\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5029.871673434515\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5072.070472702371\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5013.782131887582\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5013.98175099127\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5011.795214024944\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5010.980978379221\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5010.959183868317\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5010.957205005527\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5010.956305430205\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5010.9562008735675\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5010.956177559748\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5010.956177559745\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5010.956177559748\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29C60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64694.55986498462\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58360.4367375072\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43144.61181849813\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 42151.185836987366\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8078.5254048833185\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7267.663066322319\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6859.329955527524\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6705.808254906648\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6780.452633502839\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5032.226916989937\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5145.841689098159\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5016.117564522794\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5015.634087544351\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5013.903985768864\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5013.252686595568\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5013.230969200449\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5013.229027626739\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5013.228140328327\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5013.228036933166\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5013.228014295655\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5013.228014295656\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5013.228014295655\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC6A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64710.298648946766\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 53548.092928994556\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43087.26313585792\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 42246.932198075156\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8083.313807860438\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7269.9032532466845\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6861.835302564674\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6708.636207033593\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6784.698528685798\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5034.332135258184\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5125.806640206265\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5018.245456813093\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5017.705250935315\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5016.013765035508\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5015.335239646327\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5015.313376364667\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5015.311322409243\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5015.310400602654\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5015.310291170343\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5015.310267921843\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5015.310267921844\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5015.310267921843\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8DC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64755.80318211546\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58412.994786155454\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42981.259411249266\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 42373.37076058649\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8088.184205063386\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7278.697613033714\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6867.414953134765\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6710.657057817365\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6786.301145699566\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5036.217558505685\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5118.1915562367685\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5020.175600987878\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5019.777782759069\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5018.057548950573\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5017.250715295162\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5017.228610258648\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5017.226620501856\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5017.225720834169\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5017.225611350612\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5017.225589257234\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5017.225589257232\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5017.225589257234\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABA90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 55057.95017952175\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58444.89689005556\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43102.96781296184\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 42325.9759157296\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8092.458319072828\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7293.866641989322\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6878.463702939929\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6718.325143920254\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6785.87046802066\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5039.526269436792\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5103.427072074852\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5023.590590339854\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5023.69603443486\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5021.562375643786\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5020.636188311488\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5020.616980169095\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5020.615424017955\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5020.614824577233\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5020.614746910449\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5020.614731039949\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5020.614731039948\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5020.614731039949\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9E70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 55738.90665759206\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58447.76830422341\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43656.36017297255\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41896.45618935128\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8110.122920078003\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7280.854055979506\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6881.381463257299\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6688.480376851703\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6799.821412804572\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5041.467917632943\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5042.3655354403145\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5025.552889225896\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5025.17333276428\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5023.302745235045\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5022.6082754723\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5022.580842976883\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5022.579317866077\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5022.578735618337\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5022.578673859334\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5022.578658353696\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5022.578658353698\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5022.578658353696\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64885.926246781695\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58467.9017005144\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43755.18155918842\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41893.15356378455\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8118.432313860161\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7273.40496323447\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6881.757016528696\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6684.640439706749\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6808.531857654588\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5044.383984709271\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5042.554598429496\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5028.4949717059335\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5027.716856829058\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5026.088863134213\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5025.523169085385\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5025.493717194186\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5025.492133212606\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5025.49160859449\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5025.491552214395\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5025.491538206114\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5025.491538206119\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5025.491538206114\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A8F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 56525.96084976714\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 57635.165883712296\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43780.617553261705\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 41915.49599278341\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8125.810629762097\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7268.975428570926\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 6885.5537242727805\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6684.078046696185\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6822.413788367203\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5048.848554344481\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5048.273193115538\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5032.525776171511\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5032.506011711051\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5030.470421431317\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5029.7880515899715\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5029.762456757826\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5029.761053225561\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5029.760513790212\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5029.760479512411\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5029.7604710093165\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5029.760470180028\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5029.760470180028\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B340>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 58572.499917697365\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58627.49230268472\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43794.840255790805\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9895.544154106261\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 7175.831790293863\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 6878.568933339691\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6999.271397633111\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 7031.575471241361\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 5096.282832847677\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 5044.912082146093\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 6658.693289830928\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 5038.937323950222\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5035.901288905224\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 6753.376466455391\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5034.397696990511\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5034.249155961825\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5034.243503970047\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5034.243201778459\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5034.243028829784\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5034.243021570792\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5034.243021570785\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5034.243021570792\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E410>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64955.01771192423\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 58673.846919971234\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42965.36184740714\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 10476.622829372394\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 7973.514582514521\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7174.3071990718445\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7006.614609187183\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 12449.60175668834\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5077.292534075775\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6768.896405094971\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5077.209689725269\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5040.368062221512\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5041.6482713373825\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5036.824098585899\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5163.359881860011\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5036.207796681638\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5036.202895279774\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5036.191192560648\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5036.190834555012\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5036.190820567857\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5036.190819712614\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5036.190819712614\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCE50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64994.823848024556\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56232.41364884334\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42852.21778906408\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 9955.921580895754\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 7022.059371483854\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     71,   Neg. LLF: 8507.422592668607\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     82,   Neg. LLF: 6702.650357747933\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     93,   Neg. LLF: 6951.220907772686\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    104,   Neg. LLF: 5085.201605654462\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6755.441292023295\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 5044.632575953799\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 5043.208789296848\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5040.976364577242\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 5085.367546595163\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5040.291504274552\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5040.26974505886\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5040.2696149589265\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5040.269598006247\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 5040.269598006242\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5040.269598006247\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 210\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD300>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 19510.572823160986\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 59726.804490274946\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44415.39919901052\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 16580.131049744457\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7066.115953488559\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7092.174313916803\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 6897.336965447193\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5068.716967735694\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 6523.103877467653\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5064.698943115878\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5048.688015606209\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 6701.081501625835\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5047.313360903092\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5045.579020144953\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5045.362276431159\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5045.352957918813\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5045.351342196407\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5045.3513347127355\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5045.351334712757\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5045.3513347127355\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 211\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDD20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 19529.81226003251\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 59743.71124421015\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 43682.61460411626\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 38855.385589267375\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7078.494706306842\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 7103.3941039076435\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 7255.621371026571\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5069.978372835462\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 6468.3030190720465\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 5068.841814545087\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5050.1870295554345\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 5067.80158971078\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 5048.286338852129\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 5047.608815665114\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5047.60164059636\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 5047.574084065227\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5047.572987295025\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5047.572878372948\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5047.572800300262\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5047.572799855871\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5047.572799855871\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A8C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 19509.807266324024\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 59588.39944409183\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44604.434851648606\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 38279.21412959789\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7093.0846234715\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 7125.976664411761\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 7198.291181070773\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5074.922397823962\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 6489.406827012782\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 5072.698380194187\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5054.372901422425\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 5090.1510064835475\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 5052.011601093054\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5051.803515507983\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5051.860729391092\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5051.774422112199\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5051.769978847864\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5051.769933267774\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5051.769931884619\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5051.769931884627\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5051.769931884619\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 23504.53184367601\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 59674.77758196822\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44674.18046566541\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 10421.225415064311\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7105.202131241523\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 6870.0930156651375\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 13437.995779920228\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5121.48893579787\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5078.069466164263\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6514.903994631519\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5063.582006350876\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5056.405257161314\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 6731.688629184505\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5054.743894383043\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5054.128939121958\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5054.117535419922\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5054.117013799432\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5054.11490108613\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5054.1146532359435\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5054.114649970867\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5054.114649970865\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5054.114649970867\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65047.826720664874\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59781.669936696235\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44948.494258697305\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9836.174484047617\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7153.566250522865\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6802.0821535168325\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 31348.288350386734\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5130.563051159843\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6886.74751013955\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5099.971070803618\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6613.714368887888\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5060.19332186857\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5086.573084495743\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5057.254056968503\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5056.809290517445\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5056.519657076972\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5056.496688852479\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5056.496897635427\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5056.495879892915\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5056.495865736276\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5056.495864579235\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5056.495864579247\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5056.495864579235\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29990>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65087.18443138287\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59811.79482922966\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44802.66381667903\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 9832.755895934664\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7152.615332605601\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6814.023249396533\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 31694.388505833165\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5456.785821310094\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 6842.500624422938\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5100.211286236736\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6662.420259614941\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5062.36048147353\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5061.735070014922\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5059.802712435283\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5058.766373537498\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5059.690828747978\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5058.5760634760745\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5058.562189713399\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5058.562003659956\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5058.561592761224\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5058.561590982221\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5058.561590982213\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5058.561590982221\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29C60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65105.191945497514\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59847.50054745092\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44667.509335378054\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 10324.776852934465\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7141.730938076487\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6902.122808749849\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 22177.360451157714\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7173.603741399375\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5085.458135337344\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6136.637498402689\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5064.303646968188\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5064.796938533783\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5080.808250511483\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5060.837284871141\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5060.654992652824\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5060.63602811346\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5060.634323346048\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5060.63130964163\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5060.631069904533\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5060.631033168041\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5060.631032513126\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5060.631032513126\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63884.437633580965\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59482.730460662686\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44579.582376714876\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 20056.984463941237\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7110.3619122541\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7314.363186587826\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7143.42943159235\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5409.098475130566\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5094.524581491706\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6448.910861594359\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5071.166015426061\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5063.716632854723\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6787.515701383879\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5066.66442629837\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5063.161461786384\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5062.645997802763\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5062.6390343008725\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5062.638080496718\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5062.637949104797\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5062.637935262051\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5062.63793526205\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5062.637935262051\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BD90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65131.58060756541\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59894.95390074109\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44519.92004591404\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38400.802325559984\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7113.073839175659\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7335.8725792163405\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7141.882545786773\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5408.625985693798\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5096.011664281442\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6372.1718166570045\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5073.725420681694\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5065.603894417462\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6788.847114431905\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5069.594568991251\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5065.259775009042\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5064.547198003832\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5064.540502101282\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5064.539831514203\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5064.539728821229\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5064.539712930411\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5064.539712930416\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5064.539712930411\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E620>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65177.66298097602\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59782.01078715524\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44571.21386788239\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38401.57574774069\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7116.893137838857\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7331.967386800222\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7148.433756603671\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5408.524346834458\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5098.867057987182\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6420.455173246326\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5076.340433121858\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5068.307571440063\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6791.165073964932\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5071.592712863551\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5067.734063576245\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5067.177116609268\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5067.1666031670775\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5067.165321817878\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5067.165119142508\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5067.165098881585\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5067.165098881582\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5067.165098881585\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B250>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65238.46885973892\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59961.96488656349\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44708.20646625222\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38341.99854049535\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7122.455242998225\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7347.131509199802\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7149.797810552844\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5413.647973012841\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5100.735315510825\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6366.179345057829\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5078.927371960716\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5070.3400600870455\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6792.574633571534\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5074.211063449803\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5070.0581130179835\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5069.272056766549\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5069.263866474837\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5069.263194989968\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5069.263066530897\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5069.263050218549\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5069.263050218549\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5069.263050218549\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883B80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65257.68033647159\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60008.3567181736\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44780.354600311715\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38332.347451906084\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7128.389214104414\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7372.426645595162\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7149.02695022033\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5421.347470633873\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5102.653703067553\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6193.661070878199\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5080.994328350916\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5072.10275969379\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5199.82316423298\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5082.4601575542065\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5071.905901206439\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5071.144824840385\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5071.134468444363\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5071.133754133232\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5071.133705179052\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5071.133697924984\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5071.1336968119795\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5071.133696811992\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5071.1336968119795\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65268.48660182579\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60028.111019073316\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44762.47768019363\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38390.98971129162\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7133.223769419645\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7381.406887274411\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7153.095771240767\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5422.627346438834\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5105.053767726781\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6131.420198854841\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5083.2318151759955\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5074.317917577252\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5163.006132429362\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5086.7064221247965\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5074.140572889308\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5073.358408510601\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5073.346754688328\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5073.345698404888\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5073.345632794984\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5073.3456217188395\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5073.345619960545\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5073.34561996056\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5073.345619960545\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A2F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64087.2156136615\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60057.636502648136\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44856.79256285441\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38349.840116153515\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7139.8906342074015\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7411.828156583157\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7153.155922996989\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5431.815725609\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5107.020175798636\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5607.7338388743965\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5085.609546249165\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5076.284791828293\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5104.325120433555\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5105.540174204554\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5075.76205878013\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5075.215146422162\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5075.21455193732\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5075.214364589274\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5075.214346528732\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5075.214344684888\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5075.214344684886\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5075.214344684888\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64754.60059877943\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60083.531106558934\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44845.09013810994\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38403.11009367552\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7146.789811867405\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7443.8625767443245\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7154.967484562349\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5439.768462453019\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5109.067095959296\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5582.701355709814\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5087.534711262877\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5078.2512954689855\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5135.7866576507895\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5102.204871542592\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5077.729279685527\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5077.105708024632\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5077.104604906246\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5077.104348307255\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5077.104302918378\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5077.10430216775\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5077.10430216775\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CDEA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64561.860011913115\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60101.939432963976\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44947.03740618788\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38350.99352861491\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7153.558521007555\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7476.8372354736075\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7155.976597508943\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5452.131484972764\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5111.445869720167\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5559.689490713305\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5089.549733080656\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5080.237499519035\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5120.990786392706\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5081.328964451595\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5078.974955578028\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5078.961195125718\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5078.962897724483\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5078.956774330311\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5078.95676916688\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5078.956769166889\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5078.95676916688\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA770>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62708.23228379144\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60023.20076968995\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44953.15037867923\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38369.958008661735\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7157.541986845936\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7483.331371904617\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7160.443284325522\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5451.999587484142\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5113.770358408654\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5569.215169194693\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5091.509413946783\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5082.389638955559\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5132.126917687901\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5082.958970991261\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5081.111199817489\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5081.093984044623\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5081.096631991062\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5081.092099450144\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5081.0920975947965\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5081.092097594805\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5081.0920975947965\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9AB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65478.12647136464\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60145.96630593433\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45148.474319390705\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38290.43737471626\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7164.368724235099\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7523.710016137915\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7145.956843600301\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5459.098167980758\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5115.735030349128\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5564.563745348273\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5094.234477098313\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5084.2299913040015\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5141.159946344592\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5084.7105818527725\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5082.822542982231\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5082.8042127876515\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5082.808106959015\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5082.802490991399\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5082.802489040285\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5082.802489040292\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5082.802489040285\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B790>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65525.51956715672\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60071.8145407078\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45181.36376451596\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38300.12991577505\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7171.444618005157\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7577.371561866269\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7125.587368132325\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6251.502616486194\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5119.805300800135\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5611.405332285355\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5095.9692559071755\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5086.091564947126\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5459.22897272193\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5085.083219888263\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5084.5093675270855\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5084.460664914827\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5084.458795090941\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5084.456072332923\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5084.456062821444\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5084.456061163948\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5084.456061163948\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5084.456061163948\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAA70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62650.98348337853\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59677.4711527294\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45208.09254530248\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38281.386125135\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7177.256697556764\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7612.8936015469235\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7117.967951559453\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6480.920581010212\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5123.952999668201\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5645.46008265134\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5098.620119832776\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5088.304200560922\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6811.008678055099\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5086.615954139632\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5086.360529176731\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5086.297349690307\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5086.289431847757\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5086.286025744456\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5086.286006872486\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5086.286003684757\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5086.286003684758\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5086.286003684757\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF3D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65597.24138707799\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60286.421920808985\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45313.324870646\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38262.6377444612\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7184.006133059417\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7685.023276592698\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7104.581401897467\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6590.783670232988\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5115.543518575629\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6532.886966838711\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5111.4246066896885\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5090.798914089032\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5115.367701908352\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5089.371996365554\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5087.8861843671075\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5087.873917820614\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5087.878127395234\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5087.859866105428\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5087.859401148023\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5087.85939658148\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5087.859395299229\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5087.859395299228\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5087.859395299229\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA0B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65612.91854684234\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60334.80410207381\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45268.94428553833\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38306.45858698414\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7190.909568006917\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7798.582409886767\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7087.74395790931\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6689.06904280566\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5118.102377323263\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6515.863266303193\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5113.11422452043\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5092.447116167387\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5110.450424322757\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5090.912680628901\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5089.4219593983025\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5089.427008805252\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5089.411045798628\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5089.397128006779\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5089.397078877755\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5089.397070028819\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5089.397070028828\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5089.397070028819\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E620>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62345.453503499804\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60406.33369076006\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45245.09051593408\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38368.01957082859\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7189.034190859426\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7681.8991757394\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7111.13227308911\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6590.311612556615\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5119.720635072019\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6548.336183412642\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5115.280959266599\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5094.72789436506\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5125.447780909896\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5093.332959771005\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5091.864599556064\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5091.845263927138\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5091.855052441489\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5091.835772851621\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5091.835545609962\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5091.835543004139\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5091.835542353503\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5091.835542353503\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA0B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65681.36105759502\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60468.99747687961\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45362.89525933168\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38326.68704940695\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7193.327639397556\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7712.776736413259\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7101.567586829687\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6657.166340878139\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5121.722926933881\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6536.496097643083\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5116.975986203546\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5096.383336210802\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5118.870723470054\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5094.883520576706\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5093.399299429697\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5093.39742399732\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5093.3913379385\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5093.371846845794\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5093.371799732762\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5093.371795012694\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5093.371795012714\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5093.371795012694\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB250>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65664.86193089203\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60533.02166594095\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45156.82434777371\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38480.33091455417\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7198.491067430143\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7774.63373700193\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7096.533848791063\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6703.162790552958\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5123.372295367564\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6538.867067842351\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5118.485302081768\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5097.943309380093\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5119.350081201312\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5096.414349689888\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5094.944289042425\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5094.960249968162\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5094.933516062809\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5094.917459506491\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5094.9174070251665\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5094.917401653267\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5094.917401653289\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5094.917401653267\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28B80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62890.30134593228\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60594.02464770501\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45151.5996565802\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38529.66096239995\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7198.26821958843\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7701.563314200077\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7109.874226643079\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6647.711056996921\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5125.198341780433\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6558.957821531807\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5120.647385457193\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5100.195388516957\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5133.438437522258\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5098.657298531261\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5097.336561571581\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5097.315043555388\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5097.326679017823\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5097.306260728358\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5097.306045956639\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5097.306043511748\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5097.3060435117895\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5097.306043511748\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29F00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65735.19676278431\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60634.10027767694\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45194.9661424602\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38501.63126912396\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7202.3281248339135\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7729.707924012026\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7107.856149077279\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6677.776411881907\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5126.91821451221\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6553.904423832322\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5122.035724099023\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5101.857651595637\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5128.434197294398\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5100.369003090494\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5098.901591985801\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5098.90391284302\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5098.896269193786\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5098.872239654818\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5098.872187864545\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5098.872185032426\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5098.872185032454\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5098.872185032426\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28040>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63251.95005438429\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60702.99235362279\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45099.10409515937\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38612.84266503295\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7206.043451921028\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7745.9724541600135\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7109.8367627319985\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6689.178116401037\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5128.80105865965\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6561.939091626833\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5123.92119274951\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5103.689315256679\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5132.9053059650705\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5102.067106095636\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5100.738803736405\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5100.726469344537\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5100.73480382276\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5100.709033476972\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5100.708501940855\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5100.708497844777\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5100.7084970336255\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5100.7084970336255\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AB00>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65799.63051130853\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60755.37619284061\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45212.769814821935\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38563.20690379499\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7209.460155993079\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7790.489072986624\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7101.498513533916\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6737.9501321566095\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5130.928968998422\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6547.279505827481\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5125.389710453933\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5105.263764335194\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5126.148141930284\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5103.663566886886\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5102.1592368574675\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5102.188269003288\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5102.14549937425\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5102.1309918022835\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5102.1309291514435\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5102.13092396275\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5102.130923962779\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5102.13092396275\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29750>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63530.363460704844\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60744.47478628017\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45265.47812842539\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38557.30874066326\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7211.1521437237\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7779.0544030023775\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7108.164064051194\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6719.614270435737\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5132.458020021928\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6560.883470916095\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5127.384501139335\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5107.333477921285\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5131.927173253227\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5105.771893580828\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5104.283949522371\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5104.299238362345\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5104.274981159552\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5104.253835343078\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5104.253772510646\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5104.253769012059\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5104.253769012092\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5104.253769012059\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C292A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65840.27685601322\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60650.816604130654\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45354.70727830306\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38541.3599551113\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7214.889334124882\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7794.253697042881\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7106.748007546124\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6740.708983080302\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5134.302148392446\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6559.916045658114\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5129.113264099486\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5109.086321365639\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5131.911768023061\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5107.49260987008\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5105.990294108122\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5106.015128006441\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5105.978532423354\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5105.960449246013\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5105.960382287796\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5105.960378129768\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5105.9603781298\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5105.960378129768\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CEC80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65862.39469522423\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60758.973298786026\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45103.708927404485\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38711.64895587474\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7218.344208525171\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7821.611422830725\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7104.674731354252\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6758.317483492165\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5136.299594622351\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6555.226195348552\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5130.560938178132\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5110.61483972602\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5130.9176764095655\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5108.980234168086\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5107.45354851548\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5107.4830474397695\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5107.439021286497\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5107.424758062831\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5107.424688287116\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5107.424683242958\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5107.424683242991\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5107.424683242958\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF2E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65869.50063881827\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60777.99026589788\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44996.9455016531\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38786.346774181395\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7222.201804855213\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7817.301915566055\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7095.610257180621\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6787.419843445952\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5142.094540730758\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5119.917245181576\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5133.128091533421\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5111.599341050645\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5126.831543972319\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5111.182415014515\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5108.840925932864\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5110.554917532236\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 5108.81667487591\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5108.815879815358\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5108.815851363835\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5108.81585079588\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5108.81585079588\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928A30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64191.65071611776\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60820.185671321575\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44994.22780578143\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38832.81153979484\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7227.098304341493\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7814.660701455159\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7086.85327106988\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6741.168280965064\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5154.549825649566\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5143.836145558149\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6363.439684255979\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5113.52595293965\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5132.235936060299\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5111.28646711337\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5110.2270323759285\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5110.20830906749\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5110.205319345116\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5110.2070811432695\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5110.203723423667\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5110.203695157128\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5110.203694068733\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5110.203694068725\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5110.203694068733\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A71C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65969.69342437322\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60617.46417936208\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44988.855634657506\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38836.09104214036\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7229.088628038253\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7821.2061730692985\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7094.370117040854\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6760.433844778254\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5150.430355390078\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5146.606688997683\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6420.659563687784\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5116.060870433521\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5139.2423048966175\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5113.480402748879\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5112.376604610801\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5112.905202921252\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5112.3542612991005\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5112.347956271256\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5112.347505979133\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5112.3474560990435\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5112.347454713246\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5112.347454713241\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5112.347454713246\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CED40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64819.225423956086\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60580.36967606128\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45205.79268213654\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38776.59977625675\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7232.715650260696\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7822.714747946356\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7092.725305679491\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6755.250236115902\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5154.061668644265\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5148.326028382349\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6390.609813311091\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5117.631729449409\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5137.743925658622\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5115.2400339035985\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5114.118533979604\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5114.16283807965\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5114.113685802224\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5114.092456032047\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5114.092175559548\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5114.092167454944\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 5114.092165660082\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 5114.092165660084\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5114.092165660082\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66019.1333447134\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60678.86744820015\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45020.102247845694\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38888.9699061164\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7236.294478816201\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7821.388814026807\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7091.047263876002\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6740.211391313355\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5163.766764230158\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5148.6017819199615\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6306.568043518712\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5118.469403290186\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5135.080336208734\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5116.495769265621\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5115.4218985475945\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5115.408914877958\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5115.407764673881\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5115.404620824835\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5115.404139135562\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5115.404137759343\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5115.404135431472\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5115.404135431475\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5115.404135431472\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE2F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65676.52995700922\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60838.86468038302\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45050.90788119449\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38906.25211497495\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7240.240425016531\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7815.619707985355\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7088.363602162863\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6766.571946424348\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5152.036317675438\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5143.937256741465\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6346.855100835648\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5119.228273926103\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5143.00076018913\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5117.925841810531\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5116.685005337682\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5116.678440748163\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5116.680815196414\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5116.676647126033\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5116.67655270236\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5116.676551309354\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5116.676551309339\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5116.676551309354\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64458.39161551799\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60889.570879513645\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45029.48577834072\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 38960.34601862964\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7245.224234878273\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7812.0333658764885\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7090.133543987684\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5262.824797586389\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5147.541811645988\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6252.079070876003\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5124.3777997654815\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5144.949699530958\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5120.227876823928\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5806.2791221347725\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5118.052104279935\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5118.020710492444\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5118.019991975143\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5118.019772110985\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5118.019659269648\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5118.01959870487\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5118.019595975218\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5118.019595975206\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5118.019595975218\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8550>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63178.48916540021\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60899.28497989113\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45008.235220573755\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39001.999307897764\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7249.886957298299\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7806.165758078397\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7095.084028485564\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5190.4067788417915\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5148.427673747437\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6619.423227228504\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5147.802457445538\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5123.043784060951\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 6301.128795125513\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5119.813028711229\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5119.323150736725\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5119.352221303743\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5119.294267055549\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5119.291859224972\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5119.2916029432035\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5119.291421325424\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5119.291420719355\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5119.291420719355\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABB80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66111.8104241883\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60981.63716914292\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44947.39389765331\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39086.59545279314\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7255.1312236017875\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7801.703265071961\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7101.155409758091\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5226.792761622079\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5151.139935289296\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6669.1220771079325\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5148.550984401354\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5124.515705380245\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5155.219708423609\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5121.736772550656\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5120.634522485084\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5127.801312674133\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 5120.620922831824\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5120.607314954321\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5120.606171978525\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5120.606042099542\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 5120.6060414268995\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5120.6060414268995\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9480>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66119.94129243738\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61063.89739412425\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44881.50841675913\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39157.07483933348\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7260.215007274036\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7798.587448465058\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7106.726694356604\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5251.95974904846\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5152.362102451129\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6677.494717563305\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5149.7799859216775\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5125.923346355596\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5156.289409090336\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5123.103629191042\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5122.022808093697\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5122.993226902194\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5122.003768397474\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5121.996644309795\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5121.995539485062\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5121.99543516361\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5121.99543421151\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5121.99543421151\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D900>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66187.12626018643\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60721.85343602429\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45027.36718494161\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39070.75677246626\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7256.132559375973\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7822.379013641738\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7097.946982948536\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5396.211705112117\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5154.658505175317\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6351.03342900753\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5150.1591798745285\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5131.650425354674\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5127.5558755703\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5174.843575837149\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5125.602520202454\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5125.59091603486\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5125.59324323199\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5125.581580588415\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5125.581520566591\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5125.581478091075\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5125.581474308886\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5125.581474308893\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5125.581474308886\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62773.215423938025\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61118.53425384236\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44820.056122260554\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 10026.055652461024\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7253.345449200424\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 6910.85875558865\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 26996.370327178996\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7092.874192130916\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5171.497360261623\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5645.160936732411\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5138.913606536837\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5134.967697713948\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6705.41749980142\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5132.867240675565\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5132.8443853409835\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5132.798901146336\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5132.800656043288\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5132.795206118362\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5132.79515880824\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5132.79516006797\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5132.795153930452\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5132.795153930429\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8DC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 63646.94795474533\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61168.88560612647\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45033.76384591876\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39144.16771654325\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7261.112338142063\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7849.468646807763\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7079.868885024125\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6715.663613234784\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5209.117373854198\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5162.595560510275\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6280.813035821739\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5137.591261093016\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5140.432260316165\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5137.231121758619\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5135.00268036723\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5135.3766341503115\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5134.975060790257\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5134.919831341698\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5134.919612434716\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5134.919586943093\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 5134.919585028048\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 5134.919585028051\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5134.919585028048\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9840>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65835.51465402478\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61177.38991288917\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44752.6158060028\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39325.184448477405\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7259.777939159525\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7861.191460985271\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7101.13747028967\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6735.878410266982\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5197.346217144244\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5167.184955958833\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6399.288225929609\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5139.562459177727\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5160.26017326866\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5137.477032756105\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5136.6706217949195\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5136.769466154312\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5136.654294704602\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5136.649830002339\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5136.649644245759\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5136.649617938113\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5136.649617938116\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5136.649617938113\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F700>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66401.496711705\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61193.36543308278\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44633.386775793864\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39469.2821595281\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7259.68977134439\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7870.669393272468\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7120.481839075399\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6737.80665950737\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5174.602684926547\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5170.6781378792375\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6477.441910238024\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5142.208274988987\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5189.271681803047\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5139.28070562049\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5138.730755146918\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5138.7792640706375\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5138.720866816412\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5138.712056508786\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5138.711908894213\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5138.711908894196\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5138.711908894213\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9840>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66427.80034628653\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61219.80194520533\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44513.63001186135\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39601.91571097387\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7261.685851637294\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7877.753032377511\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7132.749056875065\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6711.110484516386\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5171.686798097931\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6540.6626014517915\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5162.808727646651\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5143.619361438389\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5160.623725508314\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5142.108411154577\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5140.671293564698\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5140.709918222423\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5140.6550209585985\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5140.651827339389\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5140.651793438148\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5140.651786985973\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5140.651786985996\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5140.651786985973\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA590>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64002.01305956041\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61253.74475711755\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44492.11982800722\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39658.29166173301\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7262.652285249803\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7881.587977380841\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7140.336362734573\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6698.90374754971\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5173.809126460353\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6544.703485313246\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5164.9422933034375\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5145.5461137494585\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5162.8367063750775\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5143.959271343196\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5142.520547416753\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5142.559786148922\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5142.504019374806\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5142.500587133447\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5142.500555040317\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5142.5005475983235\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5142.500547598345\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5142.5005475983235\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C286D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 62630.458344106206\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61281.16790892875\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44548.26891372165\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39637.87104062103\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7263.162709714256\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7879.893103844217\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7136.628028592862\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6722.847602360877\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5181.04147635874\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5175.849287656392\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6465.202598919372\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5147.602698856017\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5189.259891801002\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5144.777778942265\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5144.125829962353\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5144.141395763119\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5144.12245763162\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5144.105395855763\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5144.105189372087\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5144.105188484567\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5144.105188484567\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C288B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66538.57735801798\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61300.964932831994\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44504.32860440758\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39711.54540597578\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7266.518296694998\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7882.881294107173\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7136.653949322418\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6734.692507380183\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5187.33844012151\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5178.021168137335\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6430.057719077508\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5149.484092388239\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5183.249974600266\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5147.018040177169\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5146.1009581243925\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5146.1938522993205\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5146.087998678704\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5146.078314281167\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5146.0781032668965\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5146.078102138716\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5146.078102138735\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5146.078102138716\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2ABC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64388.333857588856\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61154.702592372574\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44564.627761417476\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39689.17475251417\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7269.711475862212\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7879.090554871818\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7126.053886463125\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6719.635036857424\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5230.5482117831325\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5177.416823154748\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6415.081028206994\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5150.6796831990505\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5166.9219591005985\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5149.862874979529\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5147.802790656043\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5147.789035926997\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5147.8344824667265\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5147.661111948053\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5147.661038017022\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5147.661034692135\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 5147.661034178854\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5147.661034178854\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A500>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66259.46906549181\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61366.2573698584\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44608.28986186841\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39684.119156219866\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7274.511659061905\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7876.946864928528\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7117.997356780626\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6723.242824496831\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5272.883973797692\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5177.143490087231\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6333.040607935684\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5153.752553954472\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5151.5139720601255\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 6769.542037322745\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5149.40074745813\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5150.48355972603\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5149.362468305091\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5149.360862659986\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5149.36067900395\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5149.360667189512\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5149.360667189526\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5149.360667189512\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B340>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66677.96464374903\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61364.25548836007\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44703.539415205276\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39647.90990009841\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7276.850217238873\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7886.928016710686\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7136.947268698718\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6721.613230567163\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5230.694153133046\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5182.508552227136\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6413.923605704547\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5155.022379693813\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5172.094593141826\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5153.529797962089\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5152.066104643408\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5152.242937061925\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5152.0329823689735\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5151.981113139496\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5151.981002618971\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5151.980995974738\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 5151.9809954167795\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5151.9809954167795\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B250>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66737.18721250215\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61353.14899610155\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45038.38993149191\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39430.19744245197\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7281.727034078156\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7882.732185987118\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7133.125743827472\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6724.203474746988\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5289.18774328072\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5182.164245612708\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6334.6727016115\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5157.846284547466\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5155.786081370527\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 6780.132282893333\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5153.684455879564\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5154.924279036294\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5153.646933757317\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5153.645434874613\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5153.645235109507\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5153.645224346736\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5153.645224346748\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5153.645224346736\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A56C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66728.79608137895\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61429.816579438964\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45216.158908404854\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39293.624710722426\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7287.427609151038\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7881.170020847196\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7131.092970251091\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6769.659055273129\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5223.187282351306\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5181.4862515253535\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6122.343960473083\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5158.536512102846\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5157.4580879822515\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 6737.020214562639\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5155.375383170174\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5155.584481196158\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5155.364321387295\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5155.360821284394\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5155.360733485797\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5155.360712812046\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5155.360712812052\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5155.360712812046\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE9E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65152.47266093026\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61488.62302216329\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45127.42350342232\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39419.179266861254\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7291.65429468312\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7879.374943832318\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7128.123896299259\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6812.73773638355\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5188.946827712788\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6300.661296081472\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5189.215281256849\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5159.19122972573\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5176.402792684327\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5157.724337729074\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5157.046562493569\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5157.012337261909\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5157.010603897947\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5157.007017426296\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5157.006711144606\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5157.006676985784\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5157.006676985753\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5157.006676985784\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E650>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66788.18631678126\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61464.355592969754\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44928.48385743627\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39580.673204886814\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7294.28513388624\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7888.2269215119495\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7132.787372217666\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6771.546357589538\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5221.871511246694\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5185.954405650224\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6088.363220397739\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5162.061019584335\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5159.535065925811\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5160.139838591133\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5264.081675538766\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 5159.215541515293\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 5159.20248069015\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    206,   Neg. LLF: 5159.196818280623\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    216,   Neg. LLF: 5159.196813508824\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5159.196813508826\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5159.196813508824\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 225\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CA30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64936.78315347023\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61607.03313946274\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44893.863399881244\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39628.92850172698\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7297.4018503927255\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7883.163948551605\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7129.037248244707\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6824.436757134414\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5190.585437094314\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6178.585725779261\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5193.032582313917\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5166.498662285958\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5163.533364722674\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5161.607799014823\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5160.702835067989\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5160.6776090471285\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5160.658258798667\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5160.657149813333\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5160.657058149272\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5160.657037690418\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5160.65703562383\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5160.657035623849\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5160.65703562383\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E650>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66874.30222961071\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61633.96561543972\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44840.838116904066\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39726.085300035826\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7302.744273896715\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7880.714770922039\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7127.110083247078\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6874.825298877729\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5188.365047890558\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6618.328954553686\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5196.814374918978\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5166.183839797047\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5164.972014662552\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5187.424094192525\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5162.241760348068\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5162.211420451871\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5162.318901608997\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5162.20141581232\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5162.200854623432\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5162.200827183016\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5162.200825116065\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5162.200825116062\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5162.200825116065\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29E40>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66902.69912920066\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61656.08315762462\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44862.74624914146\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39732.983418363656\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7307.4528343709535\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7872.864681454057\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7126.136814731174\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6923.7449446654755\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5195.5721082477285\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5193.789221217804\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6592.561576125365\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5167.81585851534\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5187.35671489975\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5164.596907405887\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5163.645210470382\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5163.6415653556405\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5163.627280340638\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5163.626462905027\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5163.626452552528\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5163.626407580774\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5163.626407580787\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5163.626407580774\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28E20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65632.64122147037\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61714.41635098118\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44956.723282777515\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39670.37500241468\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7308.106236244928\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7885.810319825272\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7134.924116959443\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6870.524627652988\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5192.976762727396\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6517.213024819544\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5202.174469382391\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5170.351897861115\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5168.050725864142\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 6964.149961080362\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5166.274724052572\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5166.193760423387\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5166.193147231433\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5166.192387535508\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5166.192240347241\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5166.192229263357\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5166.192223479333\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5166.192223479303\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5166.192223479333\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C287F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67021.73083632902\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61753.76719183358\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45244.134170108526\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39519.583080131175\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7312.611654744376\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7880.682038536283\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7142.670505075431\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6911.804816019077\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5197.7026031749865\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6754.296848834217\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5200.593467825975\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5181.37756955184\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5170.375278237183\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5189.607341222858\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5167.948603386285\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5167.705723930379\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5167.704820801329\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5167.665211944003\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5167.66129831884\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5167.661283171394\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5167.661283171392\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5167.661283171394\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29210>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65553.94378160765\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61814.205662376604\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45122.21036168812\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39650.31968260069\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7317.679407634279\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7878.940190633692\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7144.164282071797\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6933.408078839873\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5202.222429704303\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5199.4067788908105\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6608.771171827695\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5173.291211372675\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5193.683489955077\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5170.0509746666585\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5169.1142743322835\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5169.111611983924\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5169.096071050584\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5169.095211079529\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5169.095206022118\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5169.095169533069\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5169.095169533083\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5169.095169533069\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A290>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66192.18163235417\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61850.209088421674\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45180.961342568226\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39622.84314218731\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7322.46521829491\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7872.655837037659\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7149.109830317751\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6952.812809480442\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5205.1273474155605\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5200.970653887463\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6680.565221739024\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5174.918199821575\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5194.57765713874\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5171.457775109248\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5170.490584768411\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5170.48851459905\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5170.469433328179\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5170.468350548771\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5170.4683408285455\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5170.468340140676\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5170.468340140676\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883100>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67093.72741590964\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61372.66690961374\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45158.58371866178\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39680.03072206711\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7327.189704454188\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7865.338517929361\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7151.559920526777\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6963.640304636057\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5206.201092026765\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5202.24264105997\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6696.422227847859\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5176.282861631049\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5195.90972196762\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5172.781253683773\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5171.7929242337605\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5171.792039772772\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5171.77283113133\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5171.771986403595\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5171.771976603271\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5171.771976239457\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5171.771976239457\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29630>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67143.47161249706\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61996.36972274707\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45115.2858250016\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39736.099654779624\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7331.9764834827965\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7865.348273439229\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7154.346467868736\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6963.551390545331\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5207.630222096817\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5203.688597584758\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 6695.11732522486\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5177.830601807102\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5200.353770207615\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5174.393436328332\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5173.412749132901\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5173.413801086308\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5173.393636991377\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5173.39289013684\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5173.392893354461\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5173.392850939141\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5173.392850939164\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5173.392850939141\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B610>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67175.89100401866\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 62025.64687117444\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45147.79737995347\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 39719.31421139659\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7313.727483803839\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7210.163062326603\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7336.711293034676\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6936.770568747525\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5467.444792639478\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5207.767029189967\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6134.934282865167\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5177.430962085595\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5195.395117344894\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5175.450517415276\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5174.759409491001\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5174.750889785168\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5174.739848521149\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5174.739751582432\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5174.73970082443\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5174.739699730968\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5174.739699730977\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5174.739699730968\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29A80>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67451.20131931579\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56992.03274781084\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 40583.996230260294\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 13561.796529497225\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8275.138957448911\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7406.410274487691\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7206.263825572846\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6936.79942336686\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 7009.899190373951\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5202.210112790057\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5217.917729796228\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5184.813943824816\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5202.563559338165\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5183.048682569708\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5182.66229356694\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5182.645917877222\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5182.644375986675\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5182.644105006113\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5182.6440840924615\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5182.644078592131\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5182.644078592149\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5182.644078592131\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29570>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67547.52025431006\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55668.759005294814\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42918.2265409255\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 45391.59315489078\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8382.443438892486\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7638.626615800709\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7128.079475989149\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6917.3592969959045\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5394.955267481412\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5204.593581957388\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6712.157909959498\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5186.754847041894\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5230.290751756409\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5185.742090321856\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5184.9839325602425\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5184.982113182028\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5184.980696022794\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5184.980672618687\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5184.9806630218845\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5184.9806607815\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5184.980660781507\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5184.9806607815\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B3A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67590.03038910418\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55647.985109985195\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41779.71284688964\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 46569.234085720054\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8412.59625994314\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7655.150762735792\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7175.404460911575\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6823.094589556777\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6945.916847427202\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5205.24971685711\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5189.715964232251\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5190.262134930241\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5189.323563771463\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5187.323801628399\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5186.636217438726\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5186.632510081048\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5186.628997606279\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5186.628911777978\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5186.628898776267\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5186.628897421649\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5186.6288974216495\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5186.628897421649\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B940>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67557.29434209681\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55639.01026683351\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41695.34189599229\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 15426.656203661289\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8212.086064440773\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7555.607278455247\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7178.258620259438\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6974.203246092121\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6969.447409466373\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5209.5631620279155\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5193.460631941671\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5194.442558942221\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5202.600846527977\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5191.487416638088\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5190.648011885047\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5190.628557892136\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5190.626866357731\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5190.626574010146\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5190.6265724594305\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 5190.626572459419\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5190.6265724594305\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39287F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67602.12567851064\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 55207.0499326235\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42664.54957657275\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 45690.35870194497\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8404.602849684277\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7638.372215331985\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7148.198733964287\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6904.139806877884\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6962.1318889190825\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5210.988432897156\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5215.455151288505\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5194.405606250645\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5210.927941295202\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5192.7010071844625\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5192.536601228623\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5192.517903053289\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5192.515356530244\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5192.514808938523\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5192.514701036813\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5192.51469246735\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5192.514692467346\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5192.51469246735\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 57515.954027801476\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61010.223608328175\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41838.45611057266\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 16755.034116516763\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8300.231624296131\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7932.692518800881\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7277.060652157248\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6945.085894732514\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5219.057649191411\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6843.001796060146\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5204.765000490353\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5196.173928214927\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5201.797397843226\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5195.050030661355\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5194.822309687624\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5194.819174585008\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5194.818398394107\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5194.818349315783\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5194.818341255127\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 5194.818341255128\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5194.818341255127\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F670>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 60900.153282488885\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61037.77543939888\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41690.55762190484\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 17250.016335309454\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8332.676412492176\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7700.413786188181\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7220.035517057247\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6921.765247251854\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5255.6377511958\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5216.001374885186\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6669.96385849041\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5198.85236453729\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5220.31975093925\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5197.427142909777\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5197.230578946355\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5197.223828572364\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5197.22226202568\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5197.22197711096\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5197.221965432607\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 5197.221965432611\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5197.221965432607\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 59372.92380705802\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56318.334235956645\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41676.967587564475\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 17503.32578181532\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8352.057830595722\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7811.036908335102\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7260.787126333357\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6918.857943352513\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5203.467416844936\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    115,   Neg. LLF: 6846.295111535073\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 5367.1792731499145\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5244.10837945021\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5237.340092107261\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5199.371495503252\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5199.259143302404\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5199.214554969526\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5199.203708779532\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5199.196927818785\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5199.196829294273\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5199.196813911756\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5199.196807555272\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5199.1968075552695\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5199.196807555272\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF370>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 57878.55557919112\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 54895.997244201884\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41816.94500028513\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 19095.0720127572\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8407.768247540731\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7991.2560188642365\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7301.283338684592\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6902.24861971268\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5228.419325771554\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6822.590045865669\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5212.281597351748\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5202.897108679108\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5201.466780914712\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 5206.862519561884\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5201.420449747038\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5201.396841974496\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5201.396173986794\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5201.395817415172\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5201.395773121865\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5201.395772646701\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5201.395772646701\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 221\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387F7F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67795.79657724116\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 59104.507797325656\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41741.706537294674\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 46944.57243127459\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8459.6531813986\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7697.574842172715\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7216.422569175252\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6822.5199679065845\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6955.043068800771\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5222.076077133763\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5217.456051013611\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5205.316311317068\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5220.334302693326\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5203.505421212938\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5203.307098366708\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5203.302132768067\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5203.295936297065\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5203.295406442343\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5203.295295698228\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5203.2952927985025\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5203.2952927985025\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5203.2952927985025\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5480>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67808.13916862482\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61275.639620228554\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41775.72212585372\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 16525.9544719157\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8300.776673756252\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7606.081062600352\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7197.244061057139\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6962.707333106677\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6989.523418549353\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5228.376932766248\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5215.414140990814\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5212.266357240843\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5210.123533667049\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5210.41831963207\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5209.711576054604\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5209.676587217469\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5209.67470535859\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5209.674344954194\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5209.674342734803\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 5209.674342734824\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5209.674342734803\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883EE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 58884.75175934186\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61279.457539198265\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42611.792775870505\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 15545.43440855484\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8230.895512901523\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7704.023573893479\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7259.56066143369\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 7004.725749143143\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5237.421233799315\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6920.044753939432\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5224.597823950014\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5214.478699489526\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5233.77832443165\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5213.117338171938\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 5212.967057479988\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 5212.962050153386\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 5212.961459666167\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 5212.96131652158\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 5212.961293577626\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 5212.96129247501\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    229,   Neg. LLF: 5212.961292475013\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5212.96129247501\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 229\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39287F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 56574.35213882432\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60495.80626839283\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43636.67269861802\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 45140.971692723906\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8440.456238451556\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8057.360936022368\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7271.689656780371\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6964.382696417444\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5240.293797419678\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 6878.794170156623\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5227.999170143285\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5216.644867524418\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5331.069488336203\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 5218.554094057507\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 5215.511147317395\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 5215.493435637873\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 5215.491988785075\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 5215.491749682737\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 5215.491662945629\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 5215.491660575817\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    229,   Neg. LLF: 5215.4916605758235\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5215.491660575817\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 229\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3929CC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 57164.05194255474\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 61543.6711663639\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42850.814914384144\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 12844.815409124276\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8147.4704252851725\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7469.280874007642\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7253.451034671638\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 7111.894292945826\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5296.68234390079\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5317.087685621322\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5240.789077423984\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5223.654247541884\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 6745.942394821226\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5221.690783790931\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5220.871542439724\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5220.742106135311\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5220.740938965528\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5220.740781193488\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5220.740777339579\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5220.740775576785\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5220.740775576784\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5220.740775576785\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883B50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67730.42163549873\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 60523.440576633104\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43985.83252791382\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 13166.578013835457\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8032.053799889583\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7472.411313227172\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7226.771695685951\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 7125.756695801455\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5258.441940663559\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 7005.913081630266\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5246.685028323138\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5226.9300280257285\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5241.371416679232\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5224.516351949156\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5223.855136310594\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5223.844433868129\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5223.843563772935\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5223.843462995412\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5223.843452260529\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 5223.843452260529\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5223.843452260529\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28CD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 57579.88261663157\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 56949.9077996003\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43592.70590045964\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 10382.18256078699\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     60,   Neg. LLF: 8870.449868440286\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7378.053660669401\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7350.228228712711\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 7096.79613235093\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5548.055023305307\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5232.080788398167\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    126,   Neg. LLF: 7054.67948932221\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    137,   Neg. LLF: 5541.415838957288\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5462.138181830769\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5229.200176335602\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 5229.219998326096\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5228.980926041226\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5228.698265868803\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5228.694026688688\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5228.693659792424\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5228.693512374785\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5228.693504953473\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5228.6935049534695\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5228.693504953473\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BF70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 20395.055031540905\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 63062.08339496419\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 45892.95273511257\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 39859.23770038293\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7716.648363682668\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7359.043339743783\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7013.552369838296\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5284.052791149264\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 7049.418498552972\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5284.277918940421\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5253.222745132063\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5233.519124382049\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6958.355808897163\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5240.429269108953\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5232.985717150776\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5232.29127181653\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5232.26144609873\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5232.247612139809\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5232.24730250884\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5232.247284274537\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 5232.247283170121\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 5232.247283170124\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5232.247283170121\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A8C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 20646.21654080263\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 63053.0118904048\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44399.26168483056\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 40969.008800333206\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7679.9860968054945\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7353.025490384819\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7034.159507386044\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5323.194295558165\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 7038.2859634977885\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5261.966596621466\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5555.4708792036035\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5236.8071589715455\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5267.438455588645\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5465.686370475196\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5238.463798576608\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 5235.026557761836\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5235.012786090115\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5235.00991828047\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5235.009884115259\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5235.00987828796\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5235.0098754022165\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5235.009875402222\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5235.0098754022165\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C293F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 20466.74237503836\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62108.51109811994\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 43202.26451955974\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 41892.77278070363\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7976.920032202642\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 7335.515124670061\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 7149.560123445241\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5271.19247907618\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 6029.208566242025\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 5264.101931400381\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 6342.301891858098\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 5240.93574401508\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 5240.982802084796\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 5239.329363714265\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5239.25744586289\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5239.251566697693\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5239.249266861596\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5239.249002026684\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5239.248985815808\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5239.248985815799\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5239.248985815808\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BD30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 20493.104643828672\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62836.46563027083\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 42854.691770663085\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 42231.08512904885\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     64,   Neg. LLF: 7894.691970726619\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 7379.744897054736\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 7047.616589764564\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5281.984614434191\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 7085.012476960244\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 5713.312183171909\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5262.71580508799\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 5272.645519253357\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 5243.551503603327\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 5260.4283597451295\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 5242.3943881242285\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    185,   Neg. LLF: 5242.254232928368\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 5242.220993189774\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5242.206279920209\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5242.204270912345\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5242.204108422138\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 5242.204094651621\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 5242.204094651617\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5242.204094651621\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29660>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 20507.791369048777\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62062.3155514573\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 41329.70020658684\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43805.93564352469\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7998.512667354151\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 7309.345840053025\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 7157.489897587721\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5277.642369872541\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 5294.525713694584\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 5255.115076362759\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5266.436970059945\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 5246.4096477523235\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 5263.386792841411\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 5245.601075672457\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 5244.706624043513\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 5244.698189932182\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5244.697830440621\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5244.697822397922\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5244.697820765603\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5244.697820765585\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5244.697820765603\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882260>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 21398.692538139094\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 62699.13072851907\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 40819.59624632582\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 14291.727145790845\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7545.642014970075\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7313.188560553983\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7144.3170273725755\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5432.95274278455\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7052.033497672854\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5275.416825408048\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6045.454175694421\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5249.711545636386\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5273.684033990236\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5250.0796904095005\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5247.55685089323\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5247.498772715133\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5247.489047447552\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5247.488422640408\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5247.487985750779\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5247.487946132955\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5247.4879316583865\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5247.487931658392\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5247.4879316583865\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68141.91495747204\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 62778.82468053865\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41999.01943511685\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 10315.708044708277\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7400.943537739269\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7633.167173492108\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7293.789052602311\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 10036.401939240714\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5278.844592182722\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6739.943536057621\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5279.745929132541\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5250.6355549158925\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5268.66607079202\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5300.958860091998\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5249.826664533381\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5249.7565313696905\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5249.750226165661\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5249.748442017455\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5249.748315719633\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5249.748277472849\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5249.74827436204\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5249.7482737721975\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5249.7482737721975\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29870>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65444.429489995484\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63101.57796015347\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42274.00380775558\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 10366.718549359484\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 7442.052758003808\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7358.619246133276\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7353.238778391308\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5305.869550952871\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7097.684961660694\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5285.380679461712\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5624.397510973611\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5253.046646026871\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5270.346891103687\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5514.9672778003405\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5253.349867211244\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5252.292786068991\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5252.283058547821\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5252.282218046161\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5252.281884519259\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5252.281877260208\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5252.281877260206\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5252.281877260208\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28070>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66790.26556628561\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63036.90921814923\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42283.891353865154\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 12636.800211555461\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7380.183667554653\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 8021.703841841446\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7295.400096292307\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 5537.99813097511\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5298.9058250253065\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5291.364442835361\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6134.006605623238\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5277.592883938922\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5256.131449910532\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5270.208592307664\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5255.002012285329\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5254.461720162722\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5254.443726640098\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5254.440032532804\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5254.438929349716\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5254.43872818005\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5254.438716184262\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5254.438715405341\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5254.438715405341\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A1A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64890.7943047576\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63103.08421417632\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42221.00678617942\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 13041.575552592647\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7348.6223528878745\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 13033.940193992454\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7328.913959219655\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 7116.793936739746\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5282.309140171106\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5286.3952557174725\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 6767.684722836562\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5259.514577792416\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5257.495898063495\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5256.908324733726\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 5256.800789665289\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    180,   Neg. LLF: 5256.779984095044\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    190,   Neg. LLF: 5256.76373605236\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    200,   Neg. LLF: 5256.762860351659\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    210,   Neg. LLF: 5256.762763620797\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 5256.76276190939\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    230,   Neg. LLF: 5256.762761255804\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5256.762761255804\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 230\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5570>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65110.773842384035\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63158.690764250794\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42056.98047489475\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 14644.393729659798\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8002.13631333881\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7060.609498218533\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7346.242407277175\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 12585.131843177973\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 7065.528946363461\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5284.5823947103645\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5562.321814925741\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5261.336222821624\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5261.505563457735\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5259.021275231021\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 5259.0250008536905\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5260.04126635681\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5258.985267123696\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5258.983273525417\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5258.9832657529\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5258.983264986342\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5258.983264986342\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A920>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67047.39528048519\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63185.30919971212\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41676.52207730737\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 14750.800657741642\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8004.647571559073\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7180.4292135028445\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7346.700008940521\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6076.462191376848\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 7004.188426168894\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5286.531489837133\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5571.521238804773\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5281.950281606714\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5263.469080685409\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5262.356229047678\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5262.112812971438\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5261.285843911053\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5261.246975726753\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5261.2446177463935\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5261.243788619487\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5261.243726037248\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5261.24370894916\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5261.243708949132\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5261.24370894916\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CA60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68276.02920071504\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 62374.49235410977\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41454.73515523114\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 16657.12260980805\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8031.309491556021\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7385.453424287898\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7311.12350057806\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7674.693578454761\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7041.757434017295\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5289.430719908472\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5571.08475363044\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5286.112694201755\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5265.529300905995\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5266.453052729112\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5264.082019195053\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5263.318552417\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5263.285973546556\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5263.2826703273895\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5263.282368898996\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5263.282353815048\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5263.282350028047\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5263.282349614284\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5263.282349614284\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387FBB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65515.6664725094\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63234.98460070797\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41735.48652524501\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 15581.930081345556\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8030.099354644906\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7152.596633840698\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7361.54348543768\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 5746.934487730882\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 6998.0045541248355\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5290.927712619142\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5578.742304204503\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5273.384953956602\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5268.305414344719\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5266.868583729953\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5266.134921207708\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5266.016532832416\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5266.003436708417\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5265.996535616024\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5265.995275444978\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5265.995182309058\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5265.9951808045025\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    240,   Neg. LLF: 5265.995180804498\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5265.9951808045025\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 240\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2ACE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68337.40767510603\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63282.59299105126\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42136.157361845246\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43279.210848428826\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8063.501073348558\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7338.791103857522\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7320.9374398594755\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6526.38063112066\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7025.844456988531\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5293.19797632625\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5579.958484785871\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5284.057710807989\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5270.153111778637\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5268.909387335136\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5268.870554657747\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5267.98738285014\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5267.949781308717\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5267.947783544074\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5267.947223459783\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5267.947206647126\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5267.94720121332\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5267.947201213299\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5267.94720121332\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A830>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68406.84169219366\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63111.189086220154\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42030.77548109737\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43425.23280098259\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8066.11605529679\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7358.4885819679\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7324.906650760024\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7162.9998886117755\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7035.292967085046\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5295.817131462613\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5581.300341878463\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5284.964224258776\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5272.51420154407\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5271.006851798162\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5271.2285273278185\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5270.3386171619095\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5270.292016920644\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5270.290603738921\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5270.28987240164\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5270.289858264001\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5270.289851213086\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5270.289851213073\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5270.289851213086\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF9A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65699.31999121938\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63332.68113124886\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42072.94636620779\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43414.35102846187\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8067.34016012643\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7356.408000253845\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7326.496046241156\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 6466.6166567881755\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7026.472375791882\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5297.548265010046\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5585.8839820410685\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5290.775476501665\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5274.511222774789\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5274.9760344938495\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5273.121340618421\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5272.357032388372\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5272.3300119455425\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5272.327296245489\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5272.32697981952\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5272.326970435335\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5272.326969893194\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5272.326969893194\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68173.9866087377\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63277.39071306761\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41525.094861243735\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 44064.15570394619\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8062.5271406239035\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7426.233276693006\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7319.581034424105\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5821.642093850785\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7031.509772722626\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5299.560331675168\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5589.512159977363\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5298.2789439762655\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5276.4048344967105\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5290.395513172053\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5274.4579991646615\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5274.29434474812\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5274.270557240887\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5274.265293281097\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5274.2645098241355\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5274.264495973026\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5274.264494424663\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5274.26449442466\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5274.264494424663\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A680>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68451.27131530757\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63368.95691532976\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41364.50856013487\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 44304.48454183675\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8059.808707916882\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7458.004089071364\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7316.94397104153\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5421.36914314408\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5842.392497749478\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5306.476744512814\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5581.766529487414\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5278.97491179539\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5278.4159729213325\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5276.62445271839\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5276.702036520903\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5276.08953389105\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5276.051781788577\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5276.050005025141\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5276.049475856513\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5276.0494695028065\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5276.049468162535\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5276.04946816253\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5276.049468162535\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5030>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 64622.06276339665\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63210.00872751678\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41521.92910012603\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 44151.630398132285\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8069.020928052479\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7495.520192158019\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7334.792285795371\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 11632.982365060188\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7052.734449920056\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5303.185798315579\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5589.3855158230035\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5281.199294523762\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5280.475701511359\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5278.550756989111\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5279.769766668074\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5278.247221742333\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5278.183880493856\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5278.181357802587\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5278.180926764071\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5278.180915754336\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5278.180914499923\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5278.180914499923\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5278.180914499923\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A680>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68514.42861777588\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63454.70572260393\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41477.5909315975\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 44268.15520700552\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8065.755636256677\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7455.598515477301\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7323.046754879186\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5429.80364985182\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5357.8983728520525\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5316.415507465492\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5584.627503919393\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5281.914215533906\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5303.076639811183\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 7481.134625406123\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5286.673777946324\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5280.111415382825\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5280.068331077368\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5280.048127503916\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5280.040707769629\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5280.039853187186\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5280.039494399536\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5280.039425873181\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 5280.039424549961\n",
      "Iteration:     24,   Func. Count:    262,   Neg. LLF: 5280.039424549967\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5280.039424549961\n",
      "            Iterations: 24\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 262\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 24\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCB50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68536.87409906076\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63495.92861059151\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41071.00850955145\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 44812.283254036185\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8061.505865810915\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7511.1844034337855\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7316.413962945937\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5535.6217562624315\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5308.840485574738\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6830.985365521883\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5321.686566001336\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5282.653674200939\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5303.156396685163\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5335.316433729606\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5281.766026586523\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5281.702062512672\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5281.698904375633\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5281.695273668116\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5281.694838734487\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5281.694736397567\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5281.694725024147\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5281.694725024152\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5281.694725024147\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE800>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68574.18133761526\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 62873.83289436692\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41083.670755260944\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 44876.64935080327\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8066.604131980968\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7508.5776166785545\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7322.636898432255\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5444.763754425516\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5329.77208232713\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5327.626845829143\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5589.175256309505\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5286.023360930346\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5306.3319975522045\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5395.2940464544645\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5285.401998228383\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5284.4817230784465\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5284.465753923134\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5284.463119672826\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5284.462785268446\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5284.462769379839\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5284.46276515693\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5284.462765156928\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5284.46276515693\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68574.46309014931\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63630.873216437336\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41421.91204447119\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 44497.11695318204\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8070.7349740727395\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7462.995942952406\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7326.331753775754\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5457.866045818777\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5314.983363602051\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6652.627066698113\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5581.6601283416985\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5287.513354958447\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5306.015160607558\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5346.971786797076\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5286.437711913577\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5286.390484119527\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5286.388857805761\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5286.385359181972\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5286.38528865698\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5286.385283487262\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5286.385283487292\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5286.385283487262\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29180>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68530.51391899727\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63677.89823487525\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 40924.1258455113\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 16049.853830272477\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8045.763025097341\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7467.217522554001\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7325.64085774104\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5508.845835897347\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5315.991066613983\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6766.240579360238\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5396.149422508105\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5290.535983177517\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5291.526895921368\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5367.812809069543\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5289.214393719885\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5291.764034490161\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5289.201641847013\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5289.151490611548\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5289.15128462432\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5289.151272667594\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5289.151270307011\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5289.151270306955\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5289.151270307011\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A320>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67346.85031291726\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63674.583860910265\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 40667.635884881776\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 15572.774814956872\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8042.794968201452\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7506.308839120038\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7330.89204412549\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5483.211143764871\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5319.64770873433\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6644.587262096524\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5483.9599288020745\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5292.139087806952\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5310.7233609951345\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5360.143266774785\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5291.1075761541015\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5291.040908779325\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5291.040304121096\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5291.037325416859\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5291.037212164134\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5291.03720261282\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5291.037202612836\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5291.03720261282\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2ABC0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68611.84664208899\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63598.61253891698\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 40765.66739276157\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 17248.209973738856\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8058.6118528660945\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7516.917737970756\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7326.666096235592\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5562.201215977178\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5321.079885881376\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6850.064682464465\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5328.075962630182\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5294.248984767024\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5295.191185754124\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5297.460715270565\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5292.650333512899\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5292.644748174368\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5292.6436382788315\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5292.639396260824\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5292.6392862208195\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5292.639284995717\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5292.639284995759\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5292.639284995717\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A8C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68024.18989702665\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63745.350019093064\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 40875.45594539169\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 14470.154181316117\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8034.758299924436\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7321.670751957952\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7380.054355072571\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 5440.354834869708\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 5327.958663136937\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5319.987656422636\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5341.099970805673\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5297.941960540393\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5318.488599775138\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 5349.017823170087\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5296.980163402214\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5296.822923943373\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5296.802685940262\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5296.79542664166\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5296.795168301296\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5296.795112301631\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5296.795111740053\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5296.795111740053\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABC70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68736.16771517579\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63756.959307006786\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41233.78622526695\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 17307.92074940132\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8075.7151954312885\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7472.649644470839\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7350.2865320194105\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5452.9864847258505\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7147.363717964702\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5328.917688904063\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5607.003099328107\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5318.531564610319\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5301.448270029922\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5303.56444559549\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5299.1751044807315\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5298.967970206639\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5298.9393350688315\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5298.92987764297\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5298.9289084640795\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5298.928879876683\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5298.928878315479\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5298.928878315479\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5298.928878315479\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB910>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68717.267501733\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63071.656803915\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41431.39100823521\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 14399.016013185086\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 8044.922235693563\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7284.571568010217\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7393.540681599352\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 5483.969081739843\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 7036.062575774451\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5327.739984086423\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5622.608883962737\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5330.3243309428335\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5305.83203983585\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5319.073197580852\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5304.490419382633\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5303.663229947413\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5303.649698766505\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5303.647448979163\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5303.647263171452\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5303.647237626041\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5303.647198731562\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5303.647196968068\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    251,   Neg. LLF: 5303.647196968083\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5303.647196968068\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 251\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8FA0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66522.16260314993\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63764.532178802256\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41739.776958216054\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 20130.596734104252\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8103.812572885221\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7425.609146270271\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7363.046033724847\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5448.550356825721\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7083.821767783418\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5331.399876424555\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5620.289033999074\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5314.097924813383\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5308.2977954383\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5306.019697208729\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5306.173341172286\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5306.045385418859\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5306.002152993981\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5306.0013582022675\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5306.001341874071\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5306.001341494657\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5306.001341494657\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA620>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68848.70282849972\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63879.72295024839\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41543.848802909226\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 18796.23182338816\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8100.957835493888\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7456.948912164084\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7365.809436556443\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5458.6846718813695\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7110.671846334439\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5334.711668867356\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5619.317138042767\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5317.621343834724\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5310.491520994984\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5308.234096997174\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5309.061146818831\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5308.508863002908\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5308.110768591799\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5308.110507282045\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5308.1104762129735\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5308.110471327299\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5308.110470043624\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5308.110470043628\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5308.110470043624\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB910>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65484.4450333861\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63616.640358453515\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 41469.56863350061\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 15268.296270224035\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8076.2523252011215\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7452.147952066845\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7381.631764027907\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 15124.129520820612\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7121.569559739576\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5336.241246209388\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5617.792575034056\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5316.519625130464\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5313.189569799746\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5310.859168648309\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5311.286697994847\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5310.8313363217985\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5310.738418843102\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5310.7364507175525\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5310.736357987147\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5310.736346419952\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5310.736345832451\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5310.736345832451\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAE30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68864.62363646197\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 62716.2420052605\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42045.30040015499\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 12779.964835384488\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     61,   Neg. LLF: 7816.853110347929\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     72,   Neg. LLF: 7292.237800898814\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     83,   Neg. LLF: 7405.403664417746\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     94,   Neg. LLF: 6860.140209685676\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    105,   Neg. LLF: 7110.610911438327\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    116,   Neg. LLF: 5341.16307121914\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    127,   Neg. LLF: 5619.240985041017\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    138,   Neg. LLF: 5317.508693743477\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    148,   Neg. LLF: 5338.902111835738\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 7688.981905886698\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5320.42850209738\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5316.121500155207\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5316.102915403788\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5316.09813994575\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5316.096913796237\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5316.096816042807\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5316.096801302357\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5316.096799094628\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    251,   Neg. LLF: 5316.096799094637\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5316.096799094628\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 251\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A7A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68931.32757237996\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64062.58681897134\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43426.79629187983\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42804.308850647285\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8117.046141108847\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7525.1871748515905\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7373.592564850783\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5720.326231738334\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5348.839658021037\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6924.7375931463675\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5339.1254808337235\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5320.4840915769555\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 6567.960254036716\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5318.3866267294125\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5318.230170324666\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5318.194352012875\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5318.180873101066\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5318.1779331220705\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5318.17768758479\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5318.177679353139\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5318.177678866347\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5318.177678866347\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2BE50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65713.13421784254\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64063.766848985964\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42938.08365715324\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43336.70595030719\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8136.849215172286\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7339.749184877968\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7388.808769623309\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5454.846024098741\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7074.749702448183\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5343.946641241309\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5639.105465651601\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5325.357879831194\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5322.1939232332425\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5320.630771481565\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5320.06925874887\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5320.006381830568\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5319.998007809065\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5319.996575651368\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5319.99639899411\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5319.9963613035\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5319.996360576266\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5319.996360576266\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3928A30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67867.8598025553\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64072.69753923883\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43044.937351549284\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43283.19054379202\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8111.514432331818\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7571.00934439493\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7356.93275488496\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5715.456715680373\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5349.8966929816825\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6813.781621597594\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5532.942051148106\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5323.9733430933875\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5324.852077697598\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5399.260884256004\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    174,   Neg. LLF: 5322.624702170126\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 5322.592789638129\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5322.590514246609\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5322.590364625117\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5322.590323588456\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5322.59032140551\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5322.590320107456\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5322.590320107456\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5322.590320107456\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D330>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67486.74924146061\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64072.08206154536\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43430.629638092294\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42926.8076189318\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8117.35666054672\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7575.598690683371\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7357.373874904786\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5775.577088282504\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5353.752253467064\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6869.299579392021\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5394.078355168598\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5328.550369234691\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5327.574196904171\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5325.749583560277\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5326.403482882439\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5325.848157806859\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5325.707192418055\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5325.704995767201\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5325.704935134079\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5325.7048888767295\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5325.704888284328\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5325.704888284328\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5570>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66813.49416898642\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64118.04496595353\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43106.098503818794\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43312.37853689614\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8118.459691686862\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7575.687593090772\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7360.743010548361\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5980.812591278261\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5357.708500823808\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6919.7574119874325\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5360.745053621147\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5329.761534227631\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5329.975494239766\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5330.084979308886\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5327.754473076205\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5327.736484891898\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5327.73471122017\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5327.734201904178\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5327.734020226867\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5327.7340091621745\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5327.734005160822\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5327.734005160823\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5327.734005160822\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9AB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67474.72912743773\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63287.39585166055\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42559.06423218743\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43814.75983523684\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8148.274483489699\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7388.730140293812\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7395.618939712885\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5473.880329537422\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5380.682419326829\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5368.989665084254\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5633.270633499165\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5330.840836144851\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5352.704002649812\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5415.790331515082\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5330.468315543958\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5329.5409406605995\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5329.529890721829\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5329.527754006836\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5329.527485684086\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5329.5274503793335\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5329.527447874209\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5329.527447068838\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5329.527447068838\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A76D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69047.46040335154\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64195.19911759072\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42515.759247581336\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43884.65387851832\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8151.75541706643\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7395.882869879864\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7397.719553756344\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5485.57361631419\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5366.127885045256\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5345.87471253643\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5361.278278377953\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 6907.41488005113\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5332.715313752278\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5331.877963099511\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5331.515907075462\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5331.492126420233\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5331.492383921701\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5331.489467748312\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5331.489405079248\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5331.489402160754\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5331.4894014340625\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5331.4894014340625\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69054.85648139472\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64166.888031977855\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42614.212644775485\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43847.2422639627\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8157.312420914615\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7391.538856226637\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7402.9975599017835\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5493.542913791408\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5363.027176797649\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6646.755894434858\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5643.480249510256\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5335.697410588596\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5355.09746790584\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5379.331711125151\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5334.567355996445\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5334.53684919885\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5334.530741079891\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5334.530726277532\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5334.530471639763\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5334.530469485049\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5334.53046948506\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5334.530469485049\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B5B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69138.3683916888\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63965.27059501267\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42546.53927283564\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43940.00214243801\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8160.355717295204\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7406.250008302644\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7408.148742399793\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5477.808947920708\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5425.55061230096\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5372.341836398464\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5641.561983446249\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5338.24664412109\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5361.1250424252485\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 7582.223435770264\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5340.901318256008\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5336.571886057067\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5336.544896277237\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5336.536011949856\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5336.531289938333\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5336.530150626901\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5336.529835897863\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5336.52980242393\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 5336.529801134641\n",
      "Iteration:     24,   Func. Count:    262,   Neg. LLF: 5336.529801134637\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5336.529801134641\n",
      "            Iterations: 24\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 262\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 24\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A5030>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69181.2568097864\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64268.62103835817\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42744.46307301724\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43821.57688367755\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8163.10455582438\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7393.750455337222\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7411.736669900333\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5479.827696585928\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5423.542763003961\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5373.614819941363\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5643.317352602805\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5339.935382162708\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5363.289378805632\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 6594.299265476603\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5342.314056150337\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5338.281436621294\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5338.261315821887\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5338.255242227148\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5338.252857658048\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5338.25212176466\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5338.251961234266\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5338.25193507262\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 5338.251934363019\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5338.251934363019\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 253\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCFD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67061.64163176077\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64282.579313046386\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42699.44181161584\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43898.23256775443\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8166.749087759377\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7403.389620762019\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7414.718835907567\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5484.023583333733\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5414.540314451328\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5377.0547000859815\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5645.28931928087\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5341.755202538858\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5365.727138452888\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5568.263843483974\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5342.980213444019\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5340.185898422441\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5340.174149744989\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5340.172122170066\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5340.172001352665\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5340.171826541378\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5340.171819380961\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5340.17181615569\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 5340.171816155683\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5340.17181615569\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C4F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67284.64198050494\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64294.430288087446\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 42760.49860091659\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43876.87772969795\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8172.461738634371\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7397.736244470136\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7423.382785229691\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5477.28621548465\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7118.859640608443\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5371.357715595757\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5659.092284919874\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5348.818189399131\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5346.337680897777\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5344.7636717017685\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5344.050673161431\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5344.012957663063\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5344.006065549309\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5344.004320613782\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5344.004001631262\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5344.003946484628\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5344.003945482909\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5344.003945482918\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5344.003945482909\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28070>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68250.30649767371\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64344.554353765314\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43858.64465920051\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42902.7708720456\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8159.1343553701445\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7596.552995879698\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7415.354242403152\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5623.614503363556\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5376.672581795056\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6929.2725414798315\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5363.69017213054\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5346.682661019857\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5346.085705528654\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    159,   Neg. LLF: 5360.167882739611\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    170,   Neg. LLF: 5346.548848739477\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5345.805080612561\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5345.799049422041\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5345.79896870256\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5345.798956687793\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    220,   Neg. LLF: 5345.7989566878005\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5345.798956687793\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 220\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B7F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69275.06950562549\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64374.92155494129\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43141.172476479456\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43565.309619555206\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8181.393739780848\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7371.33559721629\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7433.575213271803\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5478.132836386332\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7084.007409776921\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5373.897612955259\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5670.925141442314\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5355.553046971205\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5350.561976588755\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5348.815654967083\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5348.447180048266\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5348.277101722809\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5348.268665807243\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5348.268537504414\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5348.2685067000475\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5348.268506148358\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5348.268506148358\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 223\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3883EE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69319.78385372311\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64418.11688867171\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43329.45889992887\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43436.52196624153\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8150.236113570788\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7604.558452181103\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7401.477145878422\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 6025.256834220256\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5383.553893166705\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6965.211488626184\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5373.7490594629935\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5353.787835217466\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5351.784633415091\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5350.023806656161\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5350.810911700757\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5350.034880292428\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5349.998719269901\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5349.995957160609\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5349.995748567091\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5349.9957148946905\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 5349.995713045536\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 5349.995713045541\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5349.995713045536\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C286A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69316.9687956928\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64288.06068276745\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43525.61122823431\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43332.332652255674\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 7954.039069960389\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7732.794420759994\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7412.89873274769\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 10332.314194623495\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 7104.797155758157\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 5380.010922260443\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5666.913577842249\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5358.808225817211\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5356.465575369211\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5355.004170923137\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5354.183424360364\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5354.107422735519\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5354.0944450693005\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5354.0936834019685\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5354.093662017746\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5354.093659828921\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5354.0936598288845\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5354.093659828921\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C292D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69390.85674672415\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64404.92358110525\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43463.11783133608\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43431.84297738971\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8164.593923041728\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7618.911780455628\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7410.191479523704\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5649.860541482058\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5387.204103926642\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6777.726487861407\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5567.200505765655\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5358.903640076683\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5360.024864984358\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5479.6148157129355\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5357.397430990665\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5358.632973022607\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5357.362161135721\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5357.3556258442695\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5357.355581911957\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5357.355423684177\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 5357.3554145138405\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 5357.355414513844\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5357.3554145138405\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A1D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69425.31130849749\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64456.0281422652\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44609.57285634617\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42480.10508197748\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8181.268602377718\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7615.752608905343\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7432.219950273533\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5558.271538804835\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5387.471105923634\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6815.042713774175\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5480.938127320931\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5361.495435330109\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5361.209096990735\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5359.194058567538\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5359.326508444996\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5359.167687080244\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5359.1641871074935\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5359.164351526008\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5359.164120471969\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5359.163967325439\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5359.163967325447\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5359.163967325439\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8A90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65359.98502303313\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63658.889414289195\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44265.60071655018\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42806.796944836184\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8187.219987634877\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7630.215692741432\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7449.945115034475\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5500.507810074496\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7141.221671320983\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5391.646086652658\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5672.003054381201\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5369.51006864601\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5363.283797661788\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5361.822641501852\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5360.996431407853\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5360.924416382316\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5360.914634006853\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5360.914251527658\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5360.91419250485\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5360.914171868788\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5360.914171297254\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5360.914171297254\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA4A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66873.92705512531\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64328.91791453722\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44355.90663387154\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42750.16324480858\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8190.04091309491\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7624.703883162017\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7444.623627864111\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5527.490622412268\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5393.131090130579\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6693.234826843729\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5515.97024611367\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5364.245398007099\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5387.199221266816\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5428.867521862922\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5363.21571474797\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5363.17378298074\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5363.172117799381\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5363.16950263501\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5363.169436990593\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5363.169429947538\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5363.169429947519\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5363.169429947538\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9630>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67199.37385260913\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63626.39522323101\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44425.383287190976\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42717.552769205926\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8191.52592168402\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7627.344465622613\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7448.6841888687795\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5521.962190599748\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5400.715744286008\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6568.969827429877\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5583.994000442941\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5366.167022438021\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5387.11170547322\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5427.602075458381\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5364.910627633342\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5364.867900826503\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5364.861987695076\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5364.860352916391\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5364.860028864683\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5364.860019478897\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5364.86001947888\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5364.860019478897\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38ABC70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69559.25708029073\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64575.26352639594\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44111.43397072892\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42998.186878970846\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8196.170566383498\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7630.63136027751\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7453.946321841586\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5522.744340088275\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5400.469485512884\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6624.37327868295\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5552.997370705492\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5368.468918029003\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5390.357573534122\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5427.628264734409\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5367.2378287481515\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5367.195501417675\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5367.1889997028775\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5367.187949140171\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5367.187525051815\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5367.187520092775\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5367.187520092775\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5367.187520092775\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AAAD0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 65726.71733476613\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64642.01344175856\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 44423.74528344344\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42810.33420014028\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8200.47801495676\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7634.390201904845\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7456.997947600459\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5518.044627311823\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5413.702842538443\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5389.814433804013\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5404.737934926672\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5398.775447808174\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5370.645369588834\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5387.542277907597\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5369.390817466468\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5369.189900668931\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5369.185053625678\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5369.183945614138\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5369.183918381083\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5369.183906346095\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5369.183906346074\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5369.183906346095\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB790>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69623.6104156166\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64690.28059273717\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43961.320238587155\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43182.25453905243\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8199.877724508679\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7632.982219345301\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7456.812155903661\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5550.869420887022\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5399.645967832735\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6803.947844337999\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5579.339748531326\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5372.16064215919\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5374.038005479645\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5467.603185580252\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5370.848630808894\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5372.569173043417\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5370.795467155651\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5370.781320253067\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5370.780161413891\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5370.779601060938\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5370.779579223576\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5370.779578093557\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 5370.779578093561\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5370.779578093557\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28430>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69644.03283517995\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64749.86807305235\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43808.75217775706\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43307.96363343642\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8204.040826801118\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7635.695740215151\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7460.9473838647045\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5552.63525340902\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5401.76891242617\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6824.983456542141\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5511.2595886014005\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5374.323673519165\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5375.71166763773\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5477.757398568501\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5372.756924325435\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5374.08087536142\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5372.707105584113\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5372.699139902732\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5372.698938393711\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5372.698823233084\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5372.698820301936\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5372.698820301938\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5372.698820301936\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A620>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67586.31912484765\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64000.062517547296\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43897.02642434461\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43276.87150429285\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8206.203322844174\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7637.0509075209575\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7461.670538026494\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5579.761656402865\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5404.4551445716825\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6898.116315060325\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5426.963588302044\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5381.7158509625115\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5376.24852274598\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5374.54059718023\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5374.433001018759\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5374.365264504493\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    191,   Neg. LLF: 5374.345729459515\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    201,   Neg. LLF: 5374.343178027415\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    211,   Neg. LLF: 5374.343058972062\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    221,   Neg. LLF: 5374.343042179618\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5374.343040661223\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    240,   Neg. LLF: 5374.34304066122\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5374.343040661223\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 240\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387E410>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69716.02614648089\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64881.488782881155\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43695.63937620126\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43496.90947423001\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8209.239892798705\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7620.841466997809\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7465.85953173388\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5628.00866411781\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5409.628727541342\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6967.302589231129\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5392.344508902483\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5378.387501851879\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5378.494652110961\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5376.7517213393985\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5376.175884686794\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5376.133715810588\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5376.127273436252\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5376.1264703275465\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5376.1263995266545\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5376.126394862611\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5376.126394303301\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5376.126394303301\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D600>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69721.33516937253\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64955.82923430926\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43643.58965766639\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43556.48163307551\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8198.97641789653\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7639.761222570265\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7442.558020940725\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5961.213180158119\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5414.595344149466\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 7006.041783911334\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5400.133394779363\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5383.035493823992\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    151,   Neg. LLF: 5380.08686761462\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    162,   Neg. LLF: 5378.329992681722\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5378.700868644259\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5378.30620690971\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5378.296352197401\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5378.296053485109\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5378.295483246704\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5378.2954020033485\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 5378.295401312182\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5378.295401312182\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 235\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29420>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69219.32694320948\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64647.72986469639\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43383.085325797234\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43818.45277338491\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8232.38265502021\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7422.275363630193\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7481.0545061291305\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5524.017424634854\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7091.792391888688\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5406.471743888551\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6367.619061473597\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5393.525974178239\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5382.234230217892\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5380.959260023892\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5380.895909614376\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5379.931483461423\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5379.921644263033\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5379.920010524093\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5379.919432308341\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5379.919420470272\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5379.919410321605\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5379.919410321589\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5379.919410321605\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B820>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69808.69948472382\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65046.34438227551\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43356.64865782612\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43879.48519020757\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8233.199092078154\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7436.622262703693\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7481.358281003315\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5523.609290997447\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7105.963296102513\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5408.091334976751\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6184.7483051615245\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5391.134634050248\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5383.769133516345\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5381.399762779194\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5382.697184415812\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5381.409363793873\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5381.370550679713\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5381.370305803703\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5381.3703015522715\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5381.3702989960575\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5381.370298996055\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5381.3702989960575\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF9A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69818.86688107741\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64612.06860946368\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43315.743195077855\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     49,   Neg. LLF: 43989.4454680418\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8236.37830144172\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7431.514386716358\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7483.738319715561\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5522.329617767024\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7131.656597086211\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5412.215531378579\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6102.2247983871\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5394.426717752156\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5386.588226152962\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5384.245695746218\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5384.589578419297\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5384.202929573559\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5384.175846782344\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5384.17578638406\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5384.175786384063\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5384.17578638406\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 212\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF2E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69905.97709555528\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64992.484503198844\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 43454.983861422465\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43901.24315572588\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8214.455567314399\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     74,   Neg. LLF: 7692.913464460895\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     85,   Neg. LLF: 7459.763967405933\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     96,   Neg. LLF: 5601.489727804669\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    107,   Neg. LLF: 5423.421056721831\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    118,   Neg. LLF: 6642.28873283577\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    129,   Neg. LLF: 5597.867837221267\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    140,   Neg. LLF: 5389.146453744671\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5411.824871921022\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5457.408494831549\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5388.0784822901815\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5388.0149830091095\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5388.015758506384\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5388.009975909406\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5388.0098500579115\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5388.009845776775\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5388.009845776791\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5388.009845776775\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CD510>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69914.54253780085\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65044.70951464941\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45070.18333457818\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42608.605180312166\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8231.016841351457\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7654.776988908465\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7476.530834947247\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5603.756314178868\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5420.871924524617\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6925.554038702982\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5428.960480254062\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5403.936211481499\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5391.749387337395\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5389.971792367452\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5390.605550535362\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5389.917155106603\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5389.894550864672\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5389.894194203361\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5389.894178301867\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5389.894171792852\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5389.894171792861\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5389.894171792852\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CD30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69929.82366096538\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65086.01181986915\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45095.16465206707\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42600.34327803511\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8238.104671948651\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7661.735637551452\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7482.069433930361\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5568.931647791922\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5422.256256445538\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 6836.485438469217\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5514.58810958194\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5394.614905272665\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5395.891019220035\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5498.236654720282\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5393.001180347745\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5394.487668081414\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5392.948624545245\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5392.939473903354\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5392.939267247101\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5392.939214737116\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5392.939213036949\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5392.939210040786\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 5392.939210040784\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5392.939210040786\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D900>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70018.63297026651\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65120.90941291909\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45558.96008670256\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42282.60841973369\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8243.875008875746\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7670.644871833719\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7489.463767846537\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5541.256328681196\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 5446.6805129158\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5409.793574847933\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5423.560954368777\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 6991.708688432629\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5396.936321420385\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5396.066200735232\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5395.209392292529\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5395.155413534048\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5395.149722016402\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5395.143543065085\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5395.143346899601\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5395.143252567257\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5395.143248301102\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5395.143247719171\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5395.143247719171\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CEE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70067.13908941927\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65139.055487662336\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45736.23216590969\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42186.61033842237\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8247.4496150914\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7676.57439723326\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7495.659655429876\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5539.538564920071\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7180.229993899187\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5428.743019815117\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5713.887375019732\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5417.556646320574\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5399.501301672135\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5397.185394357028\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5398.046170941586\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5397.5732379378\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5396.967068636229\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5396.964876714169\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5396.964832567617\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5396.964829646009\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5396.964829646013\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5396.964829646009\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A890>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 66915.59232267388\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65171.89436494213\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45785.99651410578\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42195.36444689793\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8256.29074925779\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7796.07813685136\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7511.651275968596\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 14271.712858217523\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7102.16163913254\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5424.640947012365\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5722.5958818904155\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5407.721658574433\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5401.483244425722\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5398.761188025853\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5399.906236130901\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5399.473784038861\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5398.716470280748\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5398.715365871508\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5398.71535292226\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5398.715350488379\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5398.7153504883745\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5398.715350488379\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29F60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68908.22684124263\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64941.27145877101\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45570.79748942206\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42369.562860175334\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8256.44309731449\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7686.566614511179\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7507.548433193905\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 5547.916096619934\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7147.043544935301\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5429.780355257748\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5896.27268627613\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5417.360678955893\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5403.845512284193\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5401.622437764427\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5402.246622992869\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5403.660817395528\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5401.269804257935\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5401.261494702655\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5401.261474612553\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5401.261473358347\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5401.261473358363\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5401.261473358347\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2A500>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67650.9360469104\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65212.57226015719\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45729.04061928415\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42292.43932256356\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8265.839067621766\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7889.932892193371\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7522.092447815641\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 17883.710252748337\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7103.970008081832\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5429.377930298173\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5726.489613271363\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5408.133192807997\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5406.293122830251\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5403.3245583098\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5404.162423330441\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5403.294211171321\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5403.230433609813\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5403.230193226944\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5403.230169746973\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5403.230168385177\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5403.23016838516\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5403.230168385177\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29840>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69851.49196230489\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65257.212750559105\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46173.21881677746\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 41920.80191245413\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8264.183779172256\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7759.298845313359\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7515.084284313221\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 11916.114719804476\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7098.386444487196\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5430.9669375131125\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6301.099919560998\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5423.497512971828\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5407.385687848003\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5422.2213503916755\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5405.21972456625\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5404.86639012257\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5404.857075896024\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5404.857067195615\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5404.856999088592\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5404.856998596263\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5404.856998596263\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AFE0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70336.1980873826\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65123.89607899524\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46040.763840937296\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42099.244143126685\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8265.293473851882\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7793.164126914318\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7518.999642511254\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 13658.371634050753\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7103.103738233638\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5432.596848694173\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6124.39448195224\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5419.713896453559\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5408.994244968662\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5408.303624641768\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5407.241902274998\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5406.352190492587\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5406.346006840787\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5406.343318343091\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5406.342395780635\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5406.342307443715\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5406.3422755698175\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5406.342274716662\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5406.342274716662\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29210>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67485.0642636289\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65328.560615985334\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46208.80635447033\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 41959.748841588356\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8276.239002449662\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 21651.36809399895\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7532.304375990485\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 28653.865232275042\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7148.834161562968\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5434.802547218274\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5725.30626594742\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5409.529191064466\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5411.424189210291\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5535.904467257813\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5407.975849690418\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5407.83060725165\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5407.812320929031\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5407.811883461633\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5407.811695265535\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5407.81169192668\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5407.811690406725\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5407.811690406735\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5407.811690406725\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AA6E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69013.98960556701\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65354.91559242156\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46193.45471720013\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 41996.45740965221\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8270.382758918007\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8028.452761047936\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7524.98910381375\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 19859.310716211952\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7130.726730561881\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5435.812386039823\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5733.291503738387\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5414.575190697815\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5412.2241594631105\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5409.974003248059\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5409.526125867595\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5409.25569132726\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5409.242767241522\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5409.242117687123\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5409.242054222681\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5409.242052191483\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5409.2420521914755\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5409.242052191483\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A56C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70464.12397808707\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65411.420732909195\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46244.19275004571\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 41971.34968328889\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8273.72315828528\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7987.546057416603\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7526.816007917868\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 19171.294487733834\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7130.983144613313\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5437.491019943196\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5736.143475124506\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5416.763227570673\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5413.894694499059\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5411.51687240867\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5411.352261313306\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5410.95559893625\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5410.942661456198\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5410.9416801953985\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5410.941607577075\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5410.941604041942\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5410.941604041956\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5410.941604041942\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38AB790>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70495.69423117147\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65419.05499692752\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46364.37408796993\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 41948.91064774066\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8277.20067238063\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8113.104548600093\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7529.7048341055315\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 21628.087861130363\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7139.396108663221\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5439.297634840988\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5736.89037614816\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5416.663738770592\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5415.582619098653\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5413.192235204427\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5412.690750737713\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5412.520090600671\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5412.506659059411\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5412.506358577209\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5412.506333823116\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5412.506330511986\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5412.506330511978\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5412.506330511986\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C430>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70541.83034785835\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65027.42806582291\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46463.846657789545\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 41928.57185456321\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8279.865617774387\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8261.873274871046\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7530.968842766768\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 23844.56347349741\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7150.204706855786\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5440.754668305837\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5737.253207219864\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5416.79169675665\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5417.028571078878\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5413.982873087018\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5414.117869007466\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5413.918204948312\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5413.865566097842\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5413.865015980686\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5413.864998843861\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5413.864996212916\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5413.864996212933\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5413.864996212916\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387CD30>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67468.35732447659\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 65442.37551419783\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 44943.71511298465\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 43182.41791123471\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8245.290343195213\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 7561.245288311035\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 7305.885706576068\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5445.771116683908\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 7202.0688433765845\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 5441.132167278018\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 5456.753981346139\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 5417.78953947097\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 5442.029587942705\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 5415.799940055575\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5415.791922411407\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 5415.783471763213\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 5415.773745512374\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5415.773667588971\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5415.773667588963\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5415.773667588971\n",
      "            Iterations: 19\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 214\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 19\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387DF90>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69667.26805583006\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65459.41944672489\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46562.75502096818\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 41907.47525847875\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8285.062867466346\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8122.424391113744\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7534.583532553606\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 22790.332826715938\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7148.70016661334\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5444.307190494652\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5742.881313419639\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5420.863271571109\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5420.623087131509\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5417.714390122778\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5417.718917202005\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5417.4943204137635\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5417.4802086231975\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5417.479957106274\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5417.479931655189\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5417.479929160446\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5417.47992916043\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5417.479929160446\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70596.58018512\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65225.82619031395\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46329.89327132586\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42079.15758746213\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8285.510826069682\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8052.35105954363\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7537.927877775255\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 22176.477452319406\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7150.388435043814\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5445.860922107261\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5745.292104251765\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5421.950979817769\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5422.016045868993\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5419.0063326956715\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5419.132031752087\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5418.9392225110005\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5418.854786068807\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5418.854416558542\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5418.85440220764\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5418.854402207638\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5418.85440220764\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B5B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68080.2987073212\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65536.9435841656\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46550.79900955323\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 41949.041295061936\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8303.732915046363\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 22673.12140444207\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7558.63022911273\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 34805.442472263625\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7160.981306968951\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5448.524484220965\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5741.513891891229\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5422.284493294719\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5446.537085295846\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5521.730312223941\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5426.471348167861\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5421.056176152793\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5421.030171259568\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5421.026119805689\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5421.025339102073\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5421.025182548989\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5421.0251627082835\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5421.025161962874\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5421.025161962874\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B790>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69161.14954219133\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65370.00923711292\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46673.36691987913\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 41916.18444698294\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8296.398119890491\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 9816.608631343908\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7549.054354416103\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 31295.730570651118\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7175.661018297787\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5450.591967745065\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5743.288089318268\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5423.960195836264\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5425.932940095043\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5541.394502101433\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5422.686552040149\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5429.611403715466\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5422.6077234923905\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5422.611364545694\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5422.565766991671\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5422.5653086302\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 5422.56529590836\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 5422.565295908385\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5422.56529590836\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C292D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70735.43378414854\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63377.98798061288\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46470.694070219135\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42081.39470287501\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8295.380929626444\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8217.675495110783\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7547.826366873094\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 26368.045663664885\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7164.942243072241\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5451.475349222743\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5748.979020576255\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5426.165812728674\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5427.197422009398\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5424.052440221216\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5425.491724765232\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5433.8634115188315\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5423.913367223069\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5423.908521872201\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5423.908310841332\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5423.908267670978\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5423.908267232191\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5423.908267232191\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B490>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70606.347935\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65633.34861595382\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46575.73944319454\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42042.98202225716\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8297.59327264861\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8181.552931007077\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7549.044168100889\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 26344.461472656876\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7167.359011031453\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5453.103483640285\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5750.981133816211\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5427.75980687265\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5428.66356149849\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5425.438451123939\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5426.229946230549\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5461.572436645527\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5425.401856824321\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5425.400743055436\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5425.400761303412\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    225,   Neg. LLF: 5425.400569556137\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    235,   Neg. LLF: 5425.400568470761\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 5425.400568470762\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5425.400568470761\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 244\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AC20>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70059.4228276666\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 63657.17544059766\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46474.76959454881\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42147.33381134125\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8299.766291156015\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8069.059827026502\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7551.490661804399\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 24754.14716039274\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7165.415894629396\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5454.629421199792\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5754.261578550549\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5429.646067554346\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5430.220727244102\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5427.072382064981\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5427.3412964653435\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5427.040752664085\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5426.999196535195\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5426.998074114743\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5426.998046187855\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5426.998034124139\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5426.998034124151\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5426.998034124139\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC3D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70704.55699630355\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65490.44968981792\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46537.37706501477\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42133.2823052664\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8304.986396243148\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8302.850262661621\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7556.842861738084\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 28953.667385051995\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7177.415317142763\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5456.588780696525\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5753.280730990682\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5430.182173726609\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5431.96181371742\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5554.869309703602\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5428.612867812044\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5428.463329247672\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5428.446207233285\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5428.445446674077\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5428.445270774602\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5428.445266050692\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5428.445264077736\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5428.445264077751\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5428.445264077736\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39287F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69846.63124689441\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65399.90956586205\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46687.76052564979\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42036.2423481335\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8308.58835407921\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 9274.419881579763\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7560.753528274787\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 33285.84502531568\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7197.821232083952\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5458.522665036548\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5750.567349953047\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5430.895007816042\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5453.305247398042\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5539.283205550948\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5434.196405610114\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5429.707904884914\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5429.667656276656\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5429.658268029288\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5429.656148449192\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5429.654377856451\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5429.6542892790185\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5429.654277239652\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 5429.654277239649\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5429.654277239652\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF3D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70870.10090579951\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65750.3040619708\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46685.778142502175\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42068.10159614023\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8308.191257940925\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8371.247428089006\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7559.056659163086\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 30433.94236132481\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7191.634525752341\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5459.677594967112\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5754.679652914996\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5432.448692871492\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5434.340257290287\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5565.491671166077\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5430.991721874659\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5430.9604623696605\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5430.950586106884\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5430.95063771559\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5430.9498027961\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5430.949793092076\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5430.94979075345\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5430.949790753463\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5430.94979075345\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCB50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70947.15755200066\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65752.49870760452\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46694.50078783467\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42091.40292278805\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8313.57170605998\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8821.200327643926\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7565.288480736422\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 32786.26004806711\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7194.593036492994\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5462.158032312062\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5756.189904576495\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5434.525703619812\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5436.288169849256\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5535.370382978168\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5433.543959655645\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5446.279157565694\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5433.896202461448\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5433.242940602964\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5433.238911641971\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5433.238578915389\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5433.2385451097\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    244,   Neg. LLF: 5433.2385366944\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    253,   Neg. LLF: 5433.238536694395\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5433.2385366944\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 253\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE470>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70916.77335409951\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65912.850526844\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46923.03010171479\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42004.554375033746\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8314.219593691942\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8321.883704128857\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7563.425630875225\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 30642.950875609404\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7188.282568648194\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5463.653568705198\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5760.739005637093\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5436.626599037173\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5438.423999494717\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5570.237509858194\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5435.054940846738\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5434.9457062426745\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5434.929085309047\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5434.9285024959445\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5434.928285975274\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5434.928280754611\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5434.928278530521\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5434.928278530531\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5434.928278530521\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C280A0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70933.54069592232\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65963.31256646018\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46515.64649746977\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42337.04614233797\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8316.976283591004\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7995.67936145276\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7566.062643236453\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 23666.136130946892\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7159.745743659847\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5466.012068418162\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5771.443948341316\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5440.653309175195\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5441.6550749452745\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5439.116337153517\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5438.331568439577\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5438.265936724798\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5438.240568404111\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5438.237628782564\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5438.2375096135265\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5438.237502492431\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5438.237501386377\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5438.237501386377\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5438.237501386377\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387DB70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69923.95376325244\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65630.45280144768\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46330.187322164245\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42511.20511006802\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8316.476876397235\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7916.21968098839\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7568.938845379098\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 21487.732592279965\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7154.1194885879\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5467.610346012898\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6029.6489994162785\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5443.271049175067\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5442.865321435992\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5439.896864746258\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5440.219367750792\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5439.685544513051\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5439.666407992048\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5439.665993069859\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5439.665971793943\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5439.665970553511\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5439.665970553504\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5439.665970553511\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C29960>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70985.88899436632\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 64635.76555415019\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46064.038990579786\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42771.04794943719\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8320.531752460774\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7844.961298015314\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7574.167285052484\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18662.406493497667\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7134.2233879011255\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5469.733416930008\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6458.6418443121665\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5445.609386828402\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5445.145202565888\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5442.255793342855\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5442.729686843478\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5442.083385944337\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5441.981510273252\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5441.980496462557\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5441.98023536928\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5441.980206788647\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5441.980204745207\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5441.98020474521\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5441.980204745207\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B7F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70994.60270431312\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66195.29574179162\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46036.85767721295\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42831.555827797594\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8321.95023598687\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7794.804834776605\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7575.023044598748\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 15271.84293445881\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7125.942206423011\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5471.546038875046\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6605.750994059172\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5449.12832764479\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5446.544020321742\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5443.814143840558\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5444.493002833825\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5452.161303961637\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5443.660848758557\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5443.659255649469\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5443.659146223036\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5443.659144853349\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5443.659144853352\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5443.659144853349\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2AE60>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68514.53067139647\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65554.09666667598\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45768.10151629863\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43072.804529356086\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8326.44358845516\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7807.513728638745\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7583.741809575358\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 17574.160817993114\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7133.270491436876\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5473.252306328259\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6552.368381000322\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5449.14529077868\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5448.3245914935505\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5445.327672002955\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5446.0318087396445\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5457.519054400855\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    194,   Neg. LLF: 5445.239490702736\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5445.23858466658\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5445.238567641822\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5445.238566119935\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5445.238566119938\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5445.238566119935\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A99F0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 70999.52958118977\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66334.34488269786\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45680.84011452682\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43173.715440613145\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8327.986577704567\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7751.325646722276\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7579.380077002663\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 11023.075019760028\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7119.004195044929\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5475.562028263614\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6632.555453131321\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5455.287902213439\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5450.387377131086\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5449.129169273132\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5448.479363285394\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5447.684542364256\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5447.670195101279\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5447.667603291925\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5447.666812589453\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5447.666735063319\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5447.666731736166\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5447.666731736159\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5447.666731736166\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9B70>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69716.50578113318\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66374.83068534939\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45410.195828454685\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43381.42831644539\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8331.205166041658\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7756.471717667633\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7586.411208945676\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 12387.746712634944\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7125.88692648751\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5477.0835742583295\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6636.81125061411\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5456.06725121494\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5451.922010735091\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5449.660524690355\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5449.941670601822\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5449.177569660497\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5449.141947148479\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5449.140507883264\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5449.1403690030675\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5449.1403407440375\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5449.14033964961\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    242,   Neg. LLF: 5449.14033964961\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5449.14033964961\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 242\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A8C10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67854.61411977676\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65436.75352051534\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45557.18066075907\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43341.22089618573\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8338.708861642543\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7817.955118907268\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7596.776957627035\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 19937.50406110662\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7138.482149192898\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5479.131965901005\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6478.745654410266\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5454.142418750245\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5454.597854109372\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5452.674835424738\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5451.327656212087\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5451.26309458714\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5451.238507047524\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5451.236512802469\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5451.2364070701915\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5451.236405384666\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5451.23640538469\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5451.236405384666\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A9AB0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71172.77307362715\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66405.73475783634\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45678.60175138859\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43274.33904372569\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8342.286387007527\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7798.576232166497\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7598.096918923146\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 17885.8174713891\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7130.264652333705\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5481.914807121984\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6573.59268128849\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5457.424473057124\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5457.409995628212\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5456.270379014813\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5454.133079143732\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5454.112308740207\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5454.090538778279\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5454.089055335901\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5454.088919931401\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5454.088918796707\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    231,   Neg. LLF: 5454.0889187967\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5454.088918796707\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 231\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC670>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71136.87137291089\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66151.14606298602\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45953.14496688095\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43094.631873548664\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8346.881574746902\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7769.719281133215\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7591.80196412887\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 11710.306108229368\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7119.575597109416\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5484.754456880617\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6683.754184013958\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5462.488597105765\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5460.5544642959285\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5460.840130018143\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5457.56208005148\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5457.548066235126\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5457.534734439796\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5457.533221182623\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5457.533026762413\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5457.533022365555\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5457.533021173083\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    241,   Neg. LLF: 5457.533021173083\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5457.533021173083\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 241\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D600>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71201.90959530606\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66035.73464924423\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45578.44275088291\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43450.07870272924\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8351.79593327835\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7779.655375039759\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7604.671759946585\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 15865.214804579537\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7124.7615100538915\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5486.518331921455\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6619.308979520648\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5462.405565143998\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5462.585275508751\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5463.728085736425\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5459.237089363724\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5459.227328613885\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5459.226308187084\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5459.222983350506\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5459.222891147782\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5459.222889118892\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5459.222888419967\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5459.222888419967\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387D900>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67676.53475659178\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66532.05966449375\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45654.82856795757\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43397.44899720399\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8366.422185457977\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 20051.491684618122\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7623.988204730112\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 36644.057971790324\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7183.2902074452595\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5490.047551569243\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5792.854995943489\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5462.645228183836\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5489.113784668651\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5545.159385403597\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5464.84191433327\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5461.221364108986\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5461.191281678254\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5461.185525910302\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5461.185124121805\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5461.185071294377\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5461.185064434338\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5461.185062921089\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 5461.185062921093\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5461.185062921089\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CCB50>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71283.25388027132\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65638.77641610798\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45727.33644352236\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43361.576211519845\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8357.359456592705\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7809.918503132125\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7610.991331897117\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18727.015296848193\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7130.066548667949\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5490.099935557151\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6611.550275052932\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5465.574728642992\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5466.033514070561\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5467.035596856167\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5462.628892758492\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5462.618437460886\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5462.616742445236\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5462.613571158372\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5462.6134993043115\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5462.613489519651\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5462.613489043915\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5462.613489043915\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF9D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71316.68335269853\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65785.76651788954\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45574.80643878812\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43506.345442107886\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8361.161586525574\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7811.162185059407\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7615.79638251359\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 19213.869471278354\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7137.871803308172\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5491.8370771989885\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6581.988419135383\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5467.004296514395\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5467.608756050073\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5467.89834610716\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5464.176974407519\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5464.167011499165\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5464.163224074736\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5464.1598859789165\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5464.159791385204\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5464.1597846116165\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5464.15978412494\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5464.15978412494\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3880220>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71355.56386244424\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65506.58456917237\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 45658.69164063632\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43504.052443522436\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8365.85202225255\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7816.85672860221\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7619.72310030408\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 19996.208213546568\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7140.987713776354\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5494.680709277666\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6521.884502507767\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5469.591895728863\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5470.6085026127475\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5472.459904848702\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5466.9997792304575\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5466.988273428042\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5466.988637747487\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5466.987201985725\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5466.987151235045\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5466.98714996582\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5466.98714996581\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5466.98714996582\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A680>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71419.20779486492\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66568.09809384064\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46098.5274373926\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43194.02479908134\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8368.673856255253\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7926.023065605737\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7618.844308531461\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 25242.715097905584\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7162.680967075696\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5496.5253006205785\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6241.1877565049745\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5470.800163915441\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5472.195116869114\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5472.8300473265745\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5468.43614463384\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5468.4245044418385\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5468.425231750201\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5468.421738817455\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5468.421701000853\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5468.421701000845\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5468.421701000853\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 222\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392B250>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71440.02145674248\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66697.81441279175\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46194.807627822935\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43127.11532297272\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8372.818913690262\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7988.621459705038\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7621.571999463103\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 27685.078126478344\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7175.355251324472\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5498.220780748905\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5890.943700678673\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5471.921319019457\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5473.827202305878\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5474.91294443384\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5469.914905269201\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5469.903249718685\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5469.9230588666305\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5469.901112875553\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5469.901070782129\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5469.901064582333\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    234,   Neg. LLF: 5469.901064000665\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5469.901064000665\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 234\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C2B640>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71469.11776790462\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65945.0022256913\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46276.75611646718\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43100.50616846308\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8377.845287617982\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8027.374505174575\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7625.739396571094\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 29087.927703085035\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7178.430328988505\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5500.767071690698\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5810.842546275688\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5474.21292911679\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5476.497991563327\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5478.097187781688\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5472.434005883618\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5472.42374765752\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5472.425266616129\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5472.422106347056\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5472.422059858567\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5472.422058197371\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5472.42205748538\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5472.42205748538\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3C28C10>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71035.72058417543\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65854.79143835891\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46391.027977897196\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43075.04447363128\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8380.681383601588\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7833.172477397795\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7622.903561750496\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 18101.647138128836\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7150.801179004883\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5503.442834225705\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6629.729556489061\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5479.85032201693\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5479.075820060627\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5478.87354989545\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5475.7056167139435\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5475.699736254018\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5475.684488126119\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5475.682821689936\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5475.682811839631\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5475.68280792849\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5475.682807928485\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5475.68280792849\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CE3B0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69192.28312335901\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66726.57730394072\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46550.69658393963\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42984.32984064991\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8398.654506636656\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 21550.46981041893\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7644.932785358258\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 39219.75501751639\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7201.953101516205\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5506.696843259313\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5810.032146089473\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5479.279318482796\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5504.022444065791\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5572.174414935835\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5481.59682581386\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5477.784692993352\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5477.755298817363\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5477.7502635159\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5477.750048809181\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5477.750017059781\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5477.750010179738\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5477.750009730949\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5477.750009730949\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A4520>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71514.04551238046\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66759.36632808726\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46480.430421219266\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 43076.62670759777\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8395.158684041957\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 7945.989214362101\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7634.825319452631\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 24160.385333614006\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7156.540015342793\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5509.499898298258\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 6280.721192096185\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5483.632376461078\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5486.021866001206\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5490.45546049652\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5481.9581992739495\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    182,   Neg. LLF: 5481.9562041035\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5481.9511389547\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    204,   Neg. LLF: 5481.946539596804\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    214,   Neg. LLF: 5481.946517596558\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5481.9465169515115\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5481.9465169515115\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A3882890>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71427.85599804414\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66789.05813820919\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47009.0822096183\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42709.983658023826\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8404.902025937981\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8117.378154247541\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7636.026503307787\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 27628.274923727506\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7183.861786303506\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5512.9422278090005\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5827.199481913856\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5486.624813753798\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5507.793342750805\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5548.926372546609\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5486.6682016847135\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5485.253688004507\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5485.219674698782\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5485.2147141907135\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5485.214127788504\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5485.213694026032\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5485.213635676017\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5485.21363232812\n",
      "Iteration:     23,   Func. Count:    252,   Neg. LLF: 5485.213632328119\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5485.21363232812\n",
      "            Iterations: 23\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 252\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 23\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A60E0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71661.35405724448\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66186.14314523141\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 46989.233026877235\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42705.86463089893\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8410.09774571157\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8040.702449328254\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7638.0634867545505\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 25293.11270332239\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7163.933585148341\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5516.09799278602\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5835.049553617212\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5490.063446995957\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5513.296953931525\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5545.986545632633\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5490.777532556071\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5488.671638974012\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5488.636851130072\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5488.634659626576\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5488.6345435237345\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5488.634479564349\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5488.634476948948\n",
      "Iteration:     22,   Func. Count:    243,   Neg. LLF: 5488.634476217697\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5488.634476217697\n",
      "            Iterations: 22\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 243\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 22\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CF970>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71729.49560004708\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66817.23186123474\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47583.42344855902\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42315.56726340679\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8413.357014231737\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 8259.01993371048\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7639.116532156345\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 30067.60814267381\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7180.371119978203\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5518.248787012119\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5833.823088613086\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5491.957687050726\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    149,   Neg. LLF: 5515.511537706713\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    160,   Neg. LLF: 5547.971875633712\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    172,   Neg. LLF: 5492.6674763958745\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    183,   Neg. LLF: 5490.586450572713\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    193,   Neg. LLF: 5490.5531133845925\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5490.550690289677\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5490.5505860455505\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5490.550513991568\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    233,   Neg. LLF: 5490.550513272721\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5490.550513272721\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 233\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38CC670>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 67978.12209834166\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 66844.09321985592\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 45951.263337374054\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 43657.1034670604\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8379.33012486859\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 7675.225884590199\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 7408.089422137109\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5526.300328744206\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 7324.369486148498\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 5521.956614566059\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 6904.162599029443\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 5495.104963230558\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 5521.922036930567\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 5492.7111571649275\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5493.268642743594\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 5492.686114887183\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 5492.630336529117\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5492.629661332565\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5492.6296599637735\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5492.629659963757\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5492.6296599637735\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A387C760>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 69919.64532836889\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 65298.67071057513\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47616.3292043595\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42344.97884342098\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8432.889429689629\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 22580.770704180875\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7662.868684422906\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 7063.094357937959\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7185.25838982065\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5522.393450889152\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5833.085388590025\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5496.231798955674\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5517.773260509819\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5494.41255674453\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5494.3333679583575\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5494.338147571636\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5494.2970894922855\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    202,   Neg. LLF: 5494.2942739261725\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    212,   Neg. LLF: 5494.294242569319\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    222,   Neg. LLF: 5494.294236001231\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5494.294235692741\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5494.294235692741\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A39299C0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 71886.21325413277\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     24,   Neg. LLF: 66679.2403042163\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     37,   Neg. LLF: 47503.020567211126\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     50,   Neg. LLF: 42453.99846954193\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     62,   Neg. LLF: 8427.488500804697\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     73,   Neg. LLF: 24662.124319209317\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     84,   Neg. LLF: 7655.902672695858\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     95,   Neg. LLF: 37222.360957122946\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    106,   Neg. LLF: 7214.397120848057\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    117,   Neg. LLF: 5524.452978187039\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    128,   Neg. LLF: 5833.347909230896\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    139,   Neg. LLF: 5497.59135768229\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    150,   Neg. LLF: 5518.481402672333\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    161,   Neg. LLF: 5496.0150859991345\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    171,   Neg. LLF: 5495.949899225214\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    181,   Neg. LLF: 5495.9723058690015\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    192,   Neg. LLF: 5495.94577001296\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    203,   Neg. LLF: 5495.943174200101\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    213,   Neg. LLF: 5495.943149800707\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    223,   Neg. LLF: 5495.943148248791\n",
      "Iteration:     21,   Func. Count:    232,   Neg. LLF: 5495.943148248785\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5495.943148248791\n",
      "            Iterations: 21\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 232\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 21\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A392A770>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68955.97802585423\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 66921.99880482642\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 46048.404751856055\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 43631.847602217415\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8388.003723569334\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 7683.945072609538\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 7413.74216421849\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5531.791439720459\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 7329.999857658218\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 5526.881382174921\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 6877.594957288584\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 5500.2677588514525\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 5526.983909559467\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 5497.901782686549\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5498.203611686095\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 5497.895428912694\n",
      "Iteration:     17,   Func. Count:    195,   Neg. LLF: 5497.822148474897\n",
      "Iteration:     18,   Func. Count:    205,   Neg. LLF: 5497.8215209694945\n",
      "Iteration:     19,   Func. Count:    215,   Neg. LLF: 5497.821519744315\n",
      "Iteration:     20,   Func. Count:    224,   Neg. LLF: 5497.821519744304\n",
      "Optimization terminated successfully    (Exit mode 0)\n",
      "            Current function value: 5497.821519744315\n",
      "            Iterations: 20\n",
      "            Function evaluations: 224\n",
      "            Gradient evaluations: 20\n",
      "<arch.univariate.base.ARCHModelForecast object at 0x000001D2A38A95D0>\n",
      "Iteration:      1,   Func. Count:     11,   Neg. LLF: 68247.86369317217\n",
      "Iteration:      2,   Func. Count:     25,   Neg. LLF: 66947.70933309369\n",
      "Iteration:      3,   Func. Count:     38,   Neg. LLF: 46324.19862891306\n",
      "Iteration:      4,   Func. Count:     51,   Neg. LLF: 43444.47088768727\n",
      "Iteration:      5,   Func. Count:     63,   Neg. LLF: 8391.239068293457\n",
      "Iteration:      6,   Func. Count:     75,   Neg. LLF: 7688.7054434921065\n",
      "Iteration:      7,   Func. Count:     86,   Neg. LLF: 7419.978299255948\n",
      "Iteration:      8,   Func. Count:     97,   Neg. LLF: 5533.663815244208\n",
      "Iteration:      9,   Func. Count:    108,   Neg. LLF: 7328.558186893139\n",
      "Iteration:     10,   Func. Count:    119,   Neg. LLF: 5528.219765433461\n",
      "Iteration:     11,   Func. Count:    130,   Neg. LLF: 6851.750069478749\n",
      "Iteration:     12,   Func. Count:    141,   Neg. LLF: 5502.034987750338\n",
      "Iteration:     13,   Func. Count:    152,   Neg. LLF: 5527.413271638841\n",
      "Iteration:     14,   Func. Count:    163,   Neg. LLF: 5499.685639233922\n",
      "Iteration:     15,   Func. Count:    173,   Neg. LLF: 5499.978378053761\n",
      "Iteration:     16,   Func. Count:    184,   Neg. LLF: 5499.679603394756\n"
     ]
    },
    {
     "ename": "KeyboardInterrupt",
     "evalue": "",
     "output_type": "error",
     "traceback": [
      "\u001B[1;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001B[0m",
      "\u001B[1;31mKeyboardInterrupt\u001B[0m                         Traceback (most recent call last)",
      "Cell \u001B[1;32mIn[9], line 8\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m      6\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mfor\u001B[39;00m i \u001B[38;5;129;01min\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;28mrange\u001B[39m(l, \u001B[38;5;28mlen\u001B[39m(r)):\n\u001B[0;32m      7\u001B[0m     am_ar_garch \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m arch_model(r[:i], mean\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124mar\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m, lags\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m2\u001B[39m, vol\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124mgarch\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m, dist\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124mt\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m, p\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m2\u001B[39m, q\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m2\u001B[39m)\n\u001B[1;32m----> 8\u001B[0m     res_ar_garch \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m \u001B[43mam_ar_garch\u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m.\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43mfit\u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m      9\u001B[0m     a \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m res_ar_garch\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mforecast(horizon\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m1\u001B[39m, align\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124morigin\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m,reindex\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;28;01mFalse\u001B[39;00m)\n\u001B[0;32m     10\u001B[0m     \u001B[38;5;28mprint\u001B[39m(a)\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32m~\\AppData\\Roaming\\Python\\Python310\\site-packages\\arch\\univariate\\base.py:748\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36mARCHModel.fit\u001B[1;34m(self, update_freq, disp, starting_values, cov_type, show_warning, first_obs, last_obs, tol, options, backcast)\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    742\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mwith\u001B[39;00m warnings\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mcatch_warnings():\n\u001B[0;32m    743\u001B[0m     warnings\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mfilterwarnings(\n\u001B[0;32m    744\u001B[0m         \u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124mignore\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m,\n\u001B[0;32m    745\u001B[0m         \u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124mValues in x were outside bounds during a minimize step\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m,\n\u001B[0;32m    746\u001B[0m         \u001B[38;5;167;01mRuntimeWarning\u001B[39;00m,\n\u001B[0;32m    747\u001B[0m     )\n\u001B[1;32m--> 748\u001B[0m     opt \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m \u001B[43mminimize\u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    749\u001B[0m \u001B[43m        \u001B[49m\u001B[43mfunc\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    750\u001B[0m \u001B[43m        \u001B[49m\u001B[43msv\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    751\u001B[0m \u001B[43m        \u001B[49m\u001B[43margs\u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m=\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43margs\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    752\u001B[0m \u001B[43m        \u001B[49m\u001B[43mmethod\u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m=\u001B[39;49m\u001B[38;5;124;43m\"\u001B[39;49m\u001B[38;5;124;43mSLSQP\u001B[39;49m\u001B[38;5;124;43m\"\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    753\u001B[0m \u001B[43m        \u001B[49m\u001B[43mbounds\u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m=\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43mbounds\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    754\u001B[0m \u001B[43m        \u001B[49m\u001B[43mconstraints\u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m=\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43mineq_constraints\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    755\u001B[0m \u001B[43m        \u001B[49m\u001B[43mtol\u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m=\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43mtol\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    756\u001B[0m \u001B[43m        \u001B[49m\u001B[43mcallback\u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m=\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43m_callback\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    757\u001B[0m \u001B[43m        \u001B[49m\u001B[43moptions\u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m=\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43moptions\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    758\u001B[0m \u001B[43m    \u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    760\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mif\u001B[39;00m show_warning:\n\u001B[0;32m    761\u001B[0m     warnings\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mfilterwarnings(\u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124malways\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m, \u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m, ConvergenceWarning)\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32mF:\\anaconda\\lib\\site-packages\\scipy\\optimize\\_minimize.py:705\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36mminimize\u001B[1;34m(fun, x0, args, method, jac, hess, hessp, bounds, constraints, tol, callback, options)\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    702\u001B[0m     res \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m _minimize_cobyla(fun, x0, args, constraints, callback\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39mcallback,\n\u001B[0;32m    703\u001B[0m                             \u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39moptions)\n\u001B[0;32m    704\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01melif\u001B[39;00m meth \u001B[38;5;241m==\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124mslsqp\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m:\n\u001B[1;32m--> 705\u001B[0m     res \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m _minimize_slsqp(fun, x0, args, jac, bounds,\n\u001B[0;32m    706\u001B[0m                           constraints, callback\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39mcallback, \u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39moptions)\n\u001B[0;32m    707\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01melif\u001B[39;00m meth \u001B[38;5;241m==\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124mtrust-constr\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m:\n\u001B[0;32m    708\u001B[0m     res \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m _minimize_trustregion_constr(fun, x0, args, jac, hess, hessp,\n\u001B[0;32m    709\u001B[0m                                        bounds, constraints,\n\u001B[0;32m    710\u001B[0m                                        callback\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39mcallback, \u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39moptions)\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32mF:\\anaconda\\lib\\site-packages\\scipy\\optimize\\_slsqp_py.py:432\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36m_minimize_slsqp\u001B[1;34m(func, x0, args, jac, bounds, constraints, maxiter, ftol, iprint, disp, eps, callback, finite_diff_rel_step, **unknown_options)\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    429\u001B[0m     c \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m _eval_constraint(x, cons)\n\u001B[0;32m    431\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mif\u001B[39;00m mode \u001B[38;5;241m==\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m-\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m1\u001B[39m:  \u001B[38;5;66;03m# gradient evaluation required\u001B[39;00m\n\u001B[1;32m--> 432\u001B[0m     g \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m append(\u001B[43mwrapped_grad\u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43mx\u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m, \u001B[38;5;241m0.0\u001B[39m)\n\u001B[0;32m    433\u001B[0m     a \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m _eval_con_normals(x, cons, la, n, m, meq, mieq)\n\u001B[0;32m    435\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mif\u001B[39;00m majiter \u001B[38;5;241m>\u001B[39m majiter_prev:\n\u001B[0;32m    436\u001B[0m     \u001B[38;5;66;03m# call callback if major iteration has incremented\u001B[39;00m\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32mF:\\anaconda\\lib\\site-packages\\scipy\\optimize\\_optimize.py:346\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36m_clip_x_for_func.<locals>.eval\u001B[1;34m(x)\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    344\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mdef\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;21meval\u001B[39m(x):\n\u001B[0;32m    345\u001B[0m     x \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m _check_clip_x(x, bounds)\n\u001B[1;32m--> 346\u001B[0m     \u001B[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001B[39;00m \u001B[43mfunc\u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43mx\u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32mF:\\anaconda\\lib\\site-packages\\scipy\\optimize\\_differentiable_functions.py:273\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36mScalarFunction.grad\u001B[1;34m(self, x)\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    271\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mif\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;129;01mnot\u001B[39;00m np\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39marray_equal(x, \u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mx):\n\u001B[0;32m    272\u001B[0m     \u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39m_update_x_impl(x)\n\u001B[1;32m--> 273\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;43mself\u001B[39;49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m.\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43m_update_grad\u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    274\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mg\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32mF:\\anaconda\\lib\\site-packages\\scipy\\optimize\\_differentiable_functions.py:256\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36mScalarFunction._update_grad\u001B[1;34m(self)\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    254\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mdef\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;21m_update_grad\u001B[39m(\u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m):\n\u001B[0;32m    255\u001B[0m     \u001B[38;5;28;01mif\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;129;01mnot\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mg_updated:\n\u001B[1;32m--> 256\u001B[0m         \u001B[38;5;28;43mself\u001B[39;49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m.\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43m_update_grad_impl\u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    257\u001B[0m         \u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mg_updated \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;28;01mTrue\u001B[39;00m\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32mF:\\anaconda\\lib\\site-packages\\scipy\\optimize\\_differentiable_functions.py:173\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36mScalarFunction.__init__.<locals>.update_grad\u001B[1;34m()\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    171\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39m_update_fun()\n\u001B[0;32m    172\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mngev \u001B[38;5;241m+\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m1\u001B[39m\n\u001B[1;32m--> 173\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mg \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m approx_derivative(fun_wrapped, \u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mx, f0\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mf,\n\u001B[0;32m    174\u001B[0m                            \u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39mfinite_diff_options)\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32mF:\\anaconda\\lib\\site-packages\\scipy\\optimize\\_numdiff.py:505\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36mapprox_derivative\u001B[1;34m(fun, x0, method, rel_step, abs_step, f0, bounds, sparsity, as_linear_operator, args, kwargs)\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    502\u001B[0m     use_one_sided \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;28;01mFalse\u001B[39;00m\n\u001B[0;32m    504\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mif\u001B[39;00m sparsity \u001B[38;5;129;01mis\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;28;01mNone\u001B[39;00m:\n\u001B[1;32m--> 505\u001B[0m     \u001B[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001B[39;00m \u001B[43m_dense_difference\u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43mfun_wrapped\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[43mx0\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[43mf0\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[43mh\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    506\u001B[0m \u001B[43m                             \u001B[49m\u001B[43muse_one_sided\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[43mmethod\u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    507\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01melse\u001B[39;00m:\n\u001B[0;32m    508\u001B[0m     \u001B[38;5;28;01mif\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;129;01mnot\u001B[39;00m issparse(sparsity) \u001B[38;5;129;01mand\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;28mlen\u001B[39m(sparsity) \u001B[38;5;241m==\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m2\u001B[39m:\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32mF:\\anaconda\\lib\\site-packages\\scipy\\optimize\\_numdiff.py:576\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36m_dense_difference\u001B[1;34m(fun, x0, f0, h, use_one_sided, method)\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    574\u001B[0m     x \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m x0 \u001B[38;5;241m+\u001B[39m h_vecs[i]\n\u001B[0;32m    575\u001B[0m     dx \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m x[i] \u001B[38;5;241m-\u001B[39m x0[i]  \u001B[38;5;66;03m# Recompute dx as exactly representable number.\u001B[39;00m\n\u001B[1;32m--> 576\u001B[0m     df \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m \u001B[43mfun\u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43mx\u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m \u001B[38;5;241m-\u001B[39m f0\n\u001B[0;32m    577\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01melif\u001B[39;00m method \u001B[38;5;241m==\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m3-point\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m'\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;129;01mand\u001B[39;00m use_one_sided[i]:\n\u001B[0;32m    578\u001B[0m     x1 \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m x0 \u001B[38;5;241m+\u001B[39m h_vecs[i]\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32mF:\\anaconda\\lib\\site-packages\\scipy\\optimize\\_numdiff.py:456\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36mapprox_derivative.<locals>.fun_wrapped\u001B[1;34m(x)\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    455\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mdef\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;21mfun_wrapped\u001B[39m(x):\n\u001B[1;32m--> 456\u001B[0m     f \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m np\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39matleast_1d(fun(x, \u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39margs, \u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39mkwargs))\n\u001B[0;32m    457\u001B[0m     \u001B[38;5;28;01mif\u001B[39;00m f\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mndim \u001B[38;5;241m>\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m1\u001B[39m:\n\u001B[0;32m    458\u001B[0m         \u001B[38;5;28;01mraise\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;167;01mRuntimeError\u001B[39;00m(\u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m`fun` return value has \u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m\n\u001B[0;32m    459\u001B[0m                            \u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124mmore than 1 dimension.\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m)\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32mF:\\anaconda\\lib\\site-packages\\scipy\\optimize\\_differentiable_functions.py:137\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36mScalarFunction.__init__.<locals>.fun_wrapped\u001B[1;34m(x)\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    133\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mnfev \u001B[38;5;241m+\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m1\u001B[39m\n\u001B[0;32m    134\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;66;03m# Send a copy because the user may overwrite it.\u001B[39;00m\n\u001B[0;32m    135\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;66;03m# Overwriting results in undefined behaviour because\u001B[39;00m\n\u001B[0;32m    136\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;66;03m# fun(self.x) will change self.x, with the two no longer linked.\u001B[39;00m\n\u001B[1;32m--> 137\u001B[0m fx \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m \u001B[43mfun\u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43mnp\u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m.\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43mcopy\u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43mx\u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m*\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43margs\u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    138\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;66;03m# Make sure the function returns a true scalar\u001B[39;00m\n\u001B[0;32m    139\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mif\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;129;01mnot\u001B[39;00m np\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39misscalar(fx):\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32m~\\AppData\\Roaming\\Python\\Python310\\site-packages\\arch\\univariate\\base.py:448\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36mARCHModel._loglikelihood\u001B[1;34m(self, parameters, sigma2, backcast, var_bounds, individual)\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    444\u001B[0m sigma2 \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;28mself\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mvolatility\u001B[38;5;241m.\u001B[39mcompute_variance(\n\u001B[0;32m    445\u001B[0m     vp, resids, sigma2, backcast, var_bounds\n\u001B[0;32m    446\u001B[0m )\n\u001B[0;32m    447\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;66;03m# 3. Compute log likelihood using Distribution\u001B[39;00m\n\u001B[1;32m--> 448\u001B[0m llf \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;28;43mself\u001B[39;49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m.\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43mdistribution\u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m.\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43mloglikelihood\u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43mdp\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[43mresids\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[43msigma2\u001B[49m\u001B[43m,\u001B[49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[43mindividual\u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m\n\u001B[0;32m    450\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mif\u001B[39;00m \u001B[38;5;129;01mnot\u001B[39;00m individual:\n\u001B[0;32m    451\u001B[0m     _callback_info[\u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124mllf\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;124m\"\u001B[39m] \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m llf_f \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m-\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;28mfloat\u001B[39m(llf)\n",
      "File \u001B[1;32m~\\AppData\\Roaming\\Python\\Python310\\site-packages\\arch\\univariate\\distribution.py:600\u001B[0m, in \u001B[0;36mStudentsT.loglikelihood\u001B[1;34m(self, parameters, resids, sigma2, individual)\u001B[0m\n\u001B[0;32m    598\u001B[0m lls \u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m gammaln((nu \u001B[38;5;241m+\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m1\u001B[39m) \u001B[38;5;241m/\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m2\u001B[39m) \u001B[38;5;241m-\u001B[39m gammaln(nu \u001B[38;5;241m/\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m2\u001B[39m) \u001B[38;5;241m-\u001B[39m log(pi \u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39m (nu \u001B[38;5;241m-\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m2\u001B[39m)) \u001B[38;5;241m/\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m2\u001B[39m\n\u001B[0;32m    599\u001B[0m lls \u001B[38;5;241m-\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m0.5\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39m (log(sigma2))\n\u001B[1;32m--> 600\u001B[0m lls \u001B[38;5;241m-\u001B[39m\u001B[38;5;241m=\u001B[39m ((nu \u001B[38;5;241m+\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m1\u001B[39m) \u001B[38;5;241m/\u001B[39m \u001B[38;5;241m2\u001B[39m) \u001B[38;5;241m*\u001B[39m (\u001B[43mlog\u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m1\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m+\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43mresids\u001B[49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m*\u001B[39;49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m*\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m2.0\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m/\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43msigma2\u001B[49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m*\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[43m(\u001B[49m\u001B[43mnu\u001B[49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m-\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43m \u001B[49m\u001B[38;5;241;43m2\u001B[39;49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m\u001B[43m)\u001B[49m)\n\u001B[0;32m    602\u001B[0m \u001B[38;5;28;01mif\u001B[39;00m individual:\n\u001B[0;32m    603\u001B[0m     \u001B[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001B[39;00m lls\n",
      "\u001B[1;31mKeyboardInterrupt\u001B[0m: "
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "from scipy.stats import gamma\n",
    "qalpha = norm.ppf(0.05)\n",
    "l = np.fix(len(r)/3).astype(int)\n",
    "VaR_GN = np.zeros(len(r))\n",
    "qalpha = norm.ppf(0.05)\n",
    "for i in range(l, len(r)):\n",
    "    am_ar_garch = arch_model(r[:i], mean='ar', lags=2, vol='garch', dist='t', p=2, q=2)\n",
    "    res_ar_garch = am_ar_garch.fit()\n",
    "    a = res_ar_garch.forecast(horizon=1, align='origin',reindex=False)\n",
    "    print(a)\n",
    "    mu = a.mean['h.1'].iloc[-1]\n",
    "    sigma = a.variance['h.1'].iloc[-1]\n",
    "    VaR_GN[i] = -(mu + qalpha * np.sqrt(sigma))\n",
    "plt.plot(r)\n",
    "plt.title('Gamma-Normal')\n",
    "plt.plot(VaR_GN*-1)\n",
    "plt.savefig('ans/3.png')\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "l = np.fix(len(r)/3).astype(int)\n",
    "VaR_EVT = np.zeros(len(r))\n",
    "alpha = 0.05\n",
    "for i in range(l, len(r)):\n",
    "    his_sample = r[i-200:i]\n",
    "    his_sample = np.sort(his_sample)\n",
    "    ind = np.ceil(len(his_sample)*0.1).astype(int)\n",
    "    evt_sample = np.abs(his_sample[:ind])\n",
    "    u = evt_sample[-1]\n",
    "    evt_sample = evt_sample - u\n",
    "    evt_sample = np.delete(evt_sample, -1)\n",
    "\n",
    "    n = len(his_sample)\n",
    "    Nu = len(evt_sample)\n",
    "\n",
    "    parmhat = genpareto.fit(evt_sample, floc=0)\n",
    "    kHat = parmhat[0]; # Tail index parameter\n",
    "    sigmaHat = parmhat[2]; # Scale parameter\n",
    "    VaR_EVT[i] = u + sigmaHat / kHat * (((1-alpha) * n / Nu) ** -kHat - 1)\n",
    "plt.plot(r)\n",
    "plt.plot(VaR_EVT*-1)\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# 历史模拟方法\n",
    "l = np.fix(len(r)/3).astype(int)\n",
    "VaR_HS = np.zeros(len(r))\n",
    "qalpha = int(200*0.05)\n",
    "for i in range(l, len(r)):\n",
    "    his_sample = r[i-200:i]\n",
    "    his_sample = np.sort(his_sample)\n",
    "    VaR_HS[i] = -his_sample[qalpha-1]\n",
    "plt.plot(r)\n",
    "plt.plot(VaR_HS*-1)\n",
    "plt.show()"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "data = pd.DataFrame({'return': r, 'VaR_RM': VaR_RM, 'VaR_GN': VaR_GN, 'VaR_HS': VaR_HS, 'VaR_EVT': VaR_EVT})\n",
    "data.to_csv('Data_VaR.csv')"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def myfun_Kupiec(r, VaR, pstar):\n",
    "    N = np.sum(r > VaR)\n",
    "    T = len(r)\n",
    "    LRuc = -2*((T-N)*np.log(1-pstar)+N*np.log(pstar)) + 2*((T-N)*np.log(1-N/T)+N*np.log(N/T))\n",
    "    pvalue_LRuc = 1 - chi2.cdf(LRuc, 1)\n",
    "    return LRuc, pvalue_LRuc\n",
    "\n",
    "def myfun_Christoffersen(r, VaR):\n",
    "    ind = r > VaR\n",
    "    ind1 = ind[:-1]\n",
    "    ind2 = ind[1:]\n",
    "    n00 = np.sum((ind1==0) & (ind2==0))\n",
    "    n01 = np.sum((ind1==0) & (ind2==1))\n",
    "    n10 = np.sum((ind1==1) & (ind2==0))\n",
    "    n11 = np.sum((ind1==1) & (ind2==1))\n",
    "\n",
    "    Pi01 = n01/(n01+n00)\n",
    "    Pi11 = n11/(n10+n11)\n",
    "    Pi2 = (n01+n11)/(n00+n01+n10+n11)\n",
    "\n",
    "    LRind = (n00+n10)*np.log(1-Pi2) + (n01+n11)*np.log(Pi2) - \\\n",
    "            n00*np.log(1-Pi01) - n01*np.log(Pi01) - n10*np.log(1-Pi11) - n11*np.log(Pi11)\n",
    "    LRind = LRind*-2\n",
    "    pvalue_LRind = 1 - chi2.cdf(LRind, 1)\n",
    "    return LRind, pvalue_LRind\n",
    "\n",
    "def myfun_Kupiec_Christoffersen(LRuc, LRind):\n",
    "    LRcc = LRuc + LRind\n",
    "    pvalue_LRcc = 1 - chi2.cdf(LRcc, 2)\n",
    "    return LRcc, pvalue_LRcc\n",
    "\n",
    "data = pd.read_csv('Data_VaR.csv')\n",
    "ind = data['VaR_RM'] > 0\n",
    "r = data.loc[ind, ['return']].values*-1\n",
    "VaR_RM = data.loc[ind, ['VaR_RM']].values\n",
    "VaR_GN = data.loc[ind, ['VaR_GN']].values\n",
    "VaR_HS = data.loc[ind, ['VaR_HS']].values\n",
    "VaR_EVT = data.loc[ind, ['VaR_EVT']].values\n",
    "\n",
    "pstar = 0.05;\n",
    "[LRuc_RM, pvalue_LRuc_RM] = myfun_Kupiec(r, VaR_RM, pstar)\n",
    "[LRind_RM, pvalue_LRind_RM] = myfun_Christoffersen(r, VaR_RM)\n",
    "[LRcc_RM, pvalue_LRcc_RM] = myfun_Kupiec_Christoffersen(LRuc_RM, LRind_RM)\n",
    "\n",
    "[LRuc_GN, pvalue_LRuc_GN] = myfun_Kupiec(r, VaR_GN, pstar)\n",
    "[LRind_GN, pvalue_LRind_GN] = myfun_Christoffersen(r, VaR_GN)\n",
    "[LRcc_GN, pvalue_LRcc_GN] = myfun_Kupiec_Christoffersen(LRuc_GN, LRind_GN)\n",
    "\n",
    "[LRuc_HS, pvalue_LRuc_HS] = myfun_Kupiec(r, VaR_HS, pstar)\n",
    "[LRind_HS, pvalue_LRind_HS] = myfun_Christoffersen(r, VaR_HS)\n",
    "[LRcc_HS, pvalue_LRcc_HS] = myfun_Kupiec_Christoffersen(LRuc_HS, LRind_HS)\n",
    "\n",
    "[LRuc_EVT, pvalue_LRuc_EVT] = myfun_Kupiec(r, VaR_EVT, pstar)\n",
    "[LRind_EVT, pvalue_LRind_EVT] = myfun_Christoffersen(r, VaR_EVT)\n",
    "[LRcc_EVT, pvalue_LRcc_EVT] = myfun_Kupiec_Christoffersen(LRuc_EVT, LRind_EVT)\n",
    "\n",
    "\n",
    "print('{:12s}, {:>12s}, {:>12s}, {:>12s}, {:>12s}, {:>12s}, {:>12s}'.format('', 'LRuc', 'pLRuc', 'LRind', 'pLRind', 'LRcc', 'pLRcc'))\n",
    "print('{:12s}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}'.format('RiskMetrics', LRuc_RM, pvalue_LRuc_RM, LRind_RM, pvalue_LRind_RM, LRcc_RM, pvalue_LRcc_RM))\n",
    "print('{:12s}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}'.format('GarchNormal', LRuc_GN, pvalue_LRuc_GN, LRind_GN, pvalue_LRind_GN, LRcc_GN, pvalue_LRcc_GN))\n",
    "print('{:12s}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}'.format('HisSim', LRuc_HS, pvalue_LRuc_HS, LRind_HS, pvalue_LRind_HS, LRcc_HS, pvalue_LRcc_HS))\n",
    "print('{:12s}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}, {:12.4f}'.format('EVT GPD', LRuc_EVT, pvalue_LRuc_EVT, LRind_EVT, pvalue_LRind_EVT,LRcc_EVT, pvalue_LRcc_EVT))"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import numpy as np"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "m=np.sort([2,1,3])\n",
    "m"
   ],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [],
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   }
  }
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