Using cached /Users/twgonzalez/Dropbox/Documents/CSF/Data/tablea2.csv (292 MB)

Loaded 920,915 rows, 69 columns.

Column mapping (VERIFY THIS):
  county                           -> CNTY_NAME
  year                             -> YEAR
  tenure                           -> TENURE
  unit_category                    -> UNIT_CAT
  Acutely-low DR (0-15% AMI)       -> BP_ACUTELY_LOW_INCOME_DR
  Acutely-low non-DR               -> BP_ACUTELY_LOW_INCOME_NDR
  Extremely-low DR (15-30% AMI)    -> BP_EXTREMELY_LOW_INCOME_DR
  Extremely-low non-DR             -> BP_EXTREMELY_LOW_INCOME_NDR
  Very-low DR (30-50% AMI)         -> BP_VLOW_INCOME_DR
  Very-low non-DR                  -> BP_VLOW_INCOME_NDR
  Low-income DR (50-80% AMI)       -> BP_LOW_INCOME_DR
  Low-income non-DR                -> BP_LOW_INCOME_NDR
  Mod DR                           -> BP_MOD_INCOME_DR
  Mod non-DR                       -> BP_MOD_INCOME_NDR
  Above-moderate                   -> BP_ABOVE_MOD_INCOME

--- Dedup by permit identity (tracking ID + APN + BP issue date + unit category) ---
Rows: 626,129 -> 499,213  (126,916 dropped)
Units: 1,214,118 -> 991,778  (222,340 dropped, 18.3%)

--- Missing/blank tenure by year (units) ---
      total_units  missing_units  pct_missing
YEAR                                         
1916            1              0        0.000
1948            1              0        0.000
1951            1              0        0.000
1981            1              0        0.000
1990           21              0        0.000
1991            1              0        0.000
1992            1              0        0.000
1998            1              0        0.000
1999           35              0        0.000
2000            3              0        0.000
2001            3              0        0.000
2002            9              0        0.000
2003            4              0        0.000
2004           10              0        0.000
2005            4              0        0.000
2006            8              0        0.000
2007            5              0        0.000
2008          275              0        0.000
2009            7              0        0.000
2010           20              0        0.000
2011          163              0        0.000
2012          138              0        0.000
2013           89              0        0.000
2014          681              0        0.000
2015         4750              0        0.000
2016         8224              0        0.000
2017        14182              0        0.000
2018       109955              0        0.000
2019       108975              0        0.000
2020       107202              0        0.000
2021       123554              0        0.000
2022       133544              0        0.000
2023       139004              0        0.000
2024       118611              0        0.000
2025       122136              0        0.000
2026          151              0        0.000
2027            1              0        0.000
2028            1              0        0.000
2029            5              0        0.000
2048            1              0        0.000

Overall missing-tenure share: 0.00%

=== CALIFORNIA STATEWIDE (all years) ===
Total units permitted:                      991,778
  of which known tenure:                     991,778  (100.0%)
Owner-tenure units:                         385,193  ( 38.8% of all;  38.8% of known-tenure)
Owner + affordable, STRICT (deed-restricted VLI+LI)      2,572   denom=known-tenure: 1 in 386         denom=all-units: 1 in 386
Owner + affordable, STRICT excl. ADUs                    2,503   denom=known-tenure: 1 in 396         denom=all-units: 1 in 396
Owner + affordable, BROAD (DR + non-DR VLI+LI)          11,869   denom=known-tenure: 1 in 84          denom=all-units: 1 in 84
Owner + affordable, BROAD excl. ADUs                     8,702   denom=known-tenure: 1 in 114         denom=all-units: 1 in 114

=== HIGH-GROWTH COUNTIES (LA, Orange, SD, Bay Area 9) ===
Total units permitted:                      609,053
  of which known tenure:                     609,053  (100.0%)
Owner-tenure units:                         137,562  ( 22.6% of all;  22.6% of known-tenure)
Owner + affordable, STRICT (deed-restricted VLI+LI)      1,291   denom=known-tenure: 1 in 472         denom=all-units: 1 in 472
Owner + affordable, STRICT excl. ADUs                    1,228   denom=known-tenure: 1 in 496         denom=all-units: 1 in 496
Owner + affordable, BROAD (DR + non-DR VLI+LI)           4,316   denom=known-tenure: 1 in 141         denom=all-units: 1 in 141
Owner + affordable, BROAD excl. ADUs                     2,027   denom=known-tenure: 1 in 300         denom=all-units: 1 in 300

--- STATEWIDE: by year, all four variants (2018-2025 only) ---
      bp_units  oa_strict  oa_strict_noadu  oa_broad  oa_broad_noadu  1_in_strict  1_in_strict_noadu  1_in_broad  1_in_broad_noadu
YEAR                                                                                                                              
2018    109955        233              224       717             668      472.000            491.000     153.000           165.000
2019    108975        564              538      1353            1224      193.000            203.000      81.000            89.000
2020    107202        184              168      1156             955      583.000            638.000      93.000           112.000
2021    123554        198              190      2111            1811      624.000            650.000      59.000            68.000
2022    133544        561              558      1826            1272      238.000            239.000      73.000           105.000
2023    139004        288              287      1462             922      483.000            484.000      95.000           151.000
2024    118611        328              328      2007            1192      362.000            362.000      59.000           100.000
2025    122136        212              206      1202             626      576.000            593.000     102.000           195.000

--- HIGH-GROWTH COUNTIES: by year, all four variants (2018-2025 only) ---
      bp_units  oa_strict  oa_strict_noadu  oa_broad  oa_broad_noadu  1_in_strict  1_in_strict_noadu  1_in_broad  1_in_broad_noadu
YEAR                                                                                                                              
2018     78243         64               55       180             139    1,223.000          1,423.000     435.000           563.000
2019     69488        338              312       521             418      206.000            223.000     133.000           166.000
2020     63238        112               99       276             124      565.000            639.000     229.000           510.000
2021     72019         96               88       652             443      750.000            818.000     110.000           163.000
2022     80345        177              175       666             233      454.000            459.000     121.000           345.000
2023     81485        152              151       577             217      536.000            540.000     141.000           376.000
2024     67798        257              257       823             325      264.000            264.000      82.000           209.000
2025     69163         92               88       614             124      752.000            786.000     113.000           558.000

--- Sanity check: statewide total permitted units by year ---
YEAR
1916         1
1948         1
1951         1
1981         1
1990        21
1991         1
1992         1
1998         1
1999        35
2000         3
2001         3
2002         9
2003         4
2004        10
2005         4
2006         8
2007         5
2008       275
2009         7
2010        20
2011       163
2012       138
2013        89
2014       681
2015      4750
2016      8224
2017     14182
2018    109955
2019    108975
2020    107202
2021    123554
2022    133544
2023    139004
2024    118611
2025    122136
2026       151
2027         1
2028         1
2029         5
2048         1
Compare against published CA annual building-permit counts (~100-110K units/yr in recent years). Flag if any year is off by more than ~15%.

Wrote /Users/twgonzalez/Dropbox/Documents/CSF/Data/apr_ownership_affordability_summary.csv

--- Spot check: Encinitas rows (looking for La Costa 48-style project) ---
NOTE: verified against the raw (pre-filter) CSV that the 'La Costa 48' master row (48 units, 4 deed-restricted VLI, Owner tenure, 55-yr term) matches known project facts exactly, but is ENTITLEMENT-STAGE ONLY — all its BP_* columns are zero and BP_ISSUE_DT1 is blank. Per permit-stage-only scope, it is correctly excluded from this analysis (contributes to neither numerator nor denominator) because it has not yet pulled a building permit. A separate cluster of 'La Costa 48 Design Review' single-lot rows (2025) DOES appear at BP stage below — confirm whether that's a related phase.
Found 1361 Encinitas rows total (bp_units > 0).
Filtered to 37 rows matching project name 'La Costa'.
       JURIS_NAME               PROJECT_NAME  YEAR  TENURE UNIT_CAT  BP_ACUTELY_LOW_INCOME_DR  BP_EXTREMELY_LOW_INCOME_DR  BP_VLOW_INCOME_DR  BP_VLOW_INCOME_NDR  BP_LOW_INCOME_DR  BP_LOW_INCOME_NDR  bp_units
533797  ENCINITAS        La Costa Avenue ADU  2024  Renter      ADU                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
680506  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
675076  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
639895  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
680523  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
680522  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  1                   0                 0                  0         1
685937  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
680524  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
685939  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
685938  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  1                   0                 0                  0         1
908313  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
680525  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
908314  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
685940  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
561411  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
560449  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
685941  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
561412  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  1                   0                 0                  0         1
639897  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  1                   0                 0                  0         1
685942  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
680527  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
560450  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
675078  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
680528  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
561413  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
908315  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
675080  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
675081  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
561414  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
675083  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
675082  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
685943  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
867753  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
675077  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
908317  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
675084  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
680543  ENCINITAS  La Costa 48 Design Review  2025   Owner      SFD                         0                           0                  0                   0                 0                  0         1
