{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "* スクリプトはここ([Chap08.r](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/whatalnk/stat-model-intro/master/Chap08.r))にあります\n", "* Jupyter notebook のファイルはここ([Chap08.ipynb](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/whatalnk/stat-model-intro/master/Chap08.ipynb) )にあります" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 1, "metadata": { "collapsed": false, "scrolled": true }, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "'Thu Nov 24 17:00:45 2016'" ], "text/latex": [ "'Thu Nov 24 17:00:45 2016'" ], "text/markdown": [ "'Thu Nov 24 17:00:45 2016'" ], "text/plain": [ "[1] \"Thu Nov 24 17:00:45 2016\"" ] }, "metadata": {}, "output_type": "display_data" } ], "source": [ "date()" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# 8章 マルコフ連鎖モンテカルロ(MCMC)法とベイズ統計モデル\n", "\n", "* マルコフ連鎖: 現在の状態が一つ前の状態で決まる\n", "* モンテカルロ: 確率的シミュレーション\n", "\n", "## 8.1 例題: 種子の生存確率(個体差なし)" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 2, "metadata": { "collapsed": false, "scrolled": false }, "outputs": [ { "name": "stderr", "output_type": "stream", "text": [ "Loading required package: pipeR\n", "Loading required package: dplyr\n", "\n", "Attaching package: 'dplyr'\n", "\n", "The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':\n", "\n", " filter, lag\n", "\n", "The following objects are masked from 'package:base':\n", "\n", " intersect, setdiff, setequal, union\n", "\n", "Loading required package: tidyr\n", "Loading required package: ggplot2\n", "Loading required package: readr\n" ] }, { "data": { "text/html": [ "