{ "cells": [ { "cell_type": "markdown", "id": "137f3b3d-8a24-485e-93fa-8e3f8aadba5c", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "# Forecasting the Weather Using Facebook's Prophet Algorithm" ] }, { "attachments": {}, "cell_type": "markdown", "id": "342dde70-9b1d-459d-9395-b7f42fa2abaa", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Project Overview\n", "\n", "In this project, we'll predict the weather using the Facebook Prophet algorithm and local weather data of New York City. Prophet uses an additive model to add up seasonal effects and trends to make a prediction. The advantage of prophet is that it automatically identifies seasonality in the data - and weather data has strong seasonal effects. So without any feature engineering, we can get good baseline accuracy. It can also scale to multiple time series (think data from adjacent weather stations) easily.\n", "\n", "By the end, we'll have a model that predicts the weather, and can be extended to improve accuracy.\n", "\n", "**Project Steps**\n", "* Load in and clean data\n", "* Define targets and predictors\n", "* Train model\n", "* Scale model to entire dataset using cv\n", "* Make future predictions" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 11, "id": "7416ff25-9983-440f-8117-0c5051fb4b15", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "import pandas as pd\n", "import prophet\n", "import numpy as np\n", "import plotly" ] }, { "cell_type": "markdown", "id": "1a92a8f9-bb68-435c-b092-54cc7d80b7d4", "metadata": {}, "source": [ "## Load and Clean the Data" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 12, "id": "1fdda95a-656a-4781-987e-3b1a833b4575", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [], "source": [ "weather = pd.read_csv(\"weather.csv\", index_col=\"DATE\")" ] }, { "cell_type": "code", "execution_count": 13, "id": "1985afd9-72c7-4ecb-b1f9-8f9c3d96ec47", "metadata": {}, "outputs": [ { "data": { "text/html": [ "
\n", " | STATION | \n", "NAME | \n", "ACMH | \n", "ACSH | \n", "AWND | \n", "FMTM | \n", "PGTM | \n", "PRCP | \n", "SNOW | \n", "SNWD | \n", "... | \n", "WT14 | \n", "WT15 | \n", "WT16 | \n", "WT17 | \n", "WT18 | \n", "WT19 | \n", "WT21 | \n", "WT22 | \n", "WV01 | \n", "WV20 | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DATE | \n", "\n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " |
1970-01-01 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "80.0 | \n", "90.0 | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "... | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "
1970-01-02 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "20.0 | \n", "20.0 | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "... | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "
1970-01-03 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "90.0 | \n", "100.0 | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.05 | \n", "0.4 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "... | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "1.0 | \n", "NaN | \n", "1.0 | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "
1970-01-04 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "20.0 | \n", "20.0 | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "... | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "
1970-01-05 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "30.0 | \n", "10.0 | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "... | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
2022-11-13 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "14.76 | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.09 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "... | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "
2022-11-14 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "12.97 | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "... | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "
2022-11-15 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "11.18 | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.43 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "... | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "
2022-11-16 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "17.22 | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "0.20 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "... | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "
2022-11-17 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "17.67 | \n", "NaN | \n", "1540.0 | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "... | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "NaN | \n", "
38628 rows × 46 columns
\n", "\n", " | station | \n", "name | \n", "prcp | \n", "snow | \n", "snwd | \n", "tmax | \n", "tmin | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DATE | \n", "\n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " |
1970-01-01 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "28 | \n", "21 | \n", "
1970-01-02 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "29 | \n", "19 | \n", "
1970-01-03 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.05 | \n", "0.4 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "35 | \n", "26 | \n", "
1970-01-04 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "30 | \n", "22 | \n", "
1970-01-05 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "35 | \n", "21 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
2022-11-13 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.02 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "62 | \n", "43 | \n", "
2022-11-14 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "46 | \n", "38 | \n", "
2022-11-15 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.49 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "48 | \n", "36 | \n", "
2022-11-16 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.20 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "51 | \n", "39 | \n", "
2022-11-17 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "47 | \n", "39 | \n", "
19314 rows × 7 columns
\n", "\n", " | station | \n", "name | \n", "prcp | \n", "snow | \n", "snwd | \n", "tmax | \n", "tmin | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DATE | \n", "\n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " |
1970-01-01 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "28 | \n", "22 | \n", "
1970-01-02 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "31 | \n", "22 | \n", "
1970-01-03 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.02 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "38 | \n", "25 | \n", "
1970-01-04 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "31 | \n", "23 | \n", "
1970-01-05 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "35 | \n", "21 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
2022-11-13 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.09 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "61 | \n", "42 | \n", "
2022-11-14 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "47 | \n", "35 | \n", "
2022-11-15 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.43 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "46 | \n", "33 | \n", "
2022-11-16 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.20 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "53 | \n", "41 | \n", "
2022-11-17 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "47 | \n", "38 | \n", "
19314 rows × 7 columns
\n", "\n", " | station_x | \n", "name_x | \n", "prcp_x | \n", "snow_x | \n", "snwd_x | \n", "tmax_x | \n", "tmin_x | \n", "station_y | \n", "name_y | \n", "prcp_y | \n", "snow_y | \n", "snwd_y | \n", "tmax_y | \n", "tmin_y | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DATE | \n", "\n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " |
1970-01-01 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "28 | \n", "22 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "28 | \n", "21 | \n", "
1970-01-02 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "31 | \n", "22 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "29 | \n", "19 | \n", "
1970-01-03 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.02 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "38 | \n", "25 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.05 | \n", "0.4 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "35 | \n", "26 | \n", "
1970-01-04 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "31 | \n", "23 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "30 | \n", "22 | \n", "
1970-01-05 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "35 | \n", "21 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "35 | \n", "21 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
2022-11-13 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.09 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "61 | \n", "42 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.02 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "62 | \n", "43 | \n", "
2022-11-14 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "47 | \n", "35 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "46 | \n", "38 | \n", "
2022-11-15 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.43 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "46 | \n", "33 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.49 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "48 | \n", "36 | \n", "
2022-11-16 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.20 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "53 | \n", "41 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.20 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "51 | \n", "39 | \n", "
2022-11-17 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "47 | \n", "38 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "47 | \n", "39 | \n", "
19314 rows × 14 columns
\n", "\n", " | tmax_x | \n", "y | \n", "
---|---|---|
DATE | \n", "\n", " | \n", " |
1970-01-01 | \n", "28 | \n", "31.0 | \n", "
1970-01-02 | \n", "31 | \n", "38.0 | \n", "
1970-01-03 | \n", "38 | \n", "31.0 | \n", "
1970-01-04 | \n", "31 | \n", "35.0 | \n", "
1970-01-05 | \n", "35 | \n", "36.0 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
2022-11-13 | \n", "61 | \n", "47.0 | \n", "
2022-11-14 | \n", "47 | \n", "46.0 | \n", "
2022-11-15 | \n", "46 | \n", "53.0 | \n", "
2022-11-16 | \n", "53 | \n", "47.0 | \n", "
2022-11-17 | \n", "47 | \n", "NaN | \n", "
19314 rows × 2 columns
\n", "\n", " | station_x | \n", "name_x | \n", "prcp_x | \n", "snow_x | \n", "snwd_x | \n", "tmax_x | \n", "tmin_x | \n", "station_y | \n", "name_y | \n", "prcp_y | \n", "snow_y | \n", "snwd_y | \n", "tmax_y | \n", "tmin_y | \n", "y | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DATE | \n", "\n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " |
1970-01-01 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "28 | \n", "22 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "28 | \n", "21 | \n", "31.0 | \n", "
1970-01-02 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "31 | \n", "22 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "29 | \n", "19 | \n", "38.0 | \n", "
1970-01-03 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.02 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "38 | \n", "25 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.05 | \n", "0.4 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "35 | \n", "26 | \n", "31.0 | \n", "
1970-01-04 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "31 | \n", "23 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "30 | \n", "22 | \n", "35.0 | \n", "
1970-01-05 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "35 | \n", "21 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "35 | \n", "21 | \n", "36.0 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
2022-11-13 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.09 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "61 | \n", "42 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.02 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "62 | \n", "43 | \n", "47.0 | \n", "
2022-11-14 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "47 | \n", "35 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "46 | \n", "38 | \n", "46.0 | \n", "
2022-11-15 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.43 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "46 | \n", "33 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.49 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "48 | \n", "36 | \n", "53.0 | \n", "
2022-11-16 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.20 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "53 | \n", "41 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.20 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "51 | \n", "39 | \n", "47.0 | \n", "
2022-11-17 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "47 | \n", "38 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "47 | \n", "39 | \n", "47.0 | \n", "
19314 rows × 15 columns
\n", "\n", " | station_x | \n", "name_x | \n", "prcp_x | \n", "snow_x | \n", "snwd_x | \n", "tmax_x | \n", "tmin_x | \n", "station_y | \n", "name_y | \n", "prcp_y | \n", "snow_y | \n", "snwd_y | \n", "tmax_y | \n", "tmin_y | \n", "y | \n", "ds | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DATE | \n", "\n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " | \n", " |
1970-01-01 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "28 | \n", "22 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "28 | \n", "21 | \n", "31.0 | \n", "1970-01-01 | \n", "
1970-01-02 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "31 | \n", "22 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "29 | \n", "19 | \n", "38.0 | \n", "1970-01-02 | \n", "
1970-01-03 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.02 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "38 | \n", "25 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.05 | \n", "0.4 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "35 | \n", "26 | \n", "31.0 | \n", "1970-01-03 | \n", "
1970-01-04 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "31 | \n", "23 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "30 | \n", "22 | \n", "35.0 | \n", "1970-01-04 | \n", "
1970-01-05 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "35 | \n", "21 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "35 | \n", "21 | \n", "36.0 | \n", "1970-01-05 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
2022-11-13 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.09 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "61 | \n", "42 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.02 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "62 | \n", "43 | \n", "47.0 | \n", "2022-11-13 | \n", "
2022-11-14 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "47 | \n", "35 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "46 | \n", "38 | \n", "46.0 | \n", "2022-11-14 | \n", "
2022-11-15 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.43 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "46 | \n", "33 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.49 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "48 | \n", "36 | \n", "53.0 | \n", "2022-11-15 | \n", "
2022-11-16 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.20 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "53 | \n", "41 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.20 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "51 | \n", "39 | \n", "47.0 | \n", "2022-11-16 | \n", "
2022-11-17 | \n", "USW00094789 | \n", "JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "47 | \n", "38 | \n", "USW00014732 | \n", "LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY US | \n", "0.00 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "47 | \n", "39 | \n", "47.0 | \n", "2022-11-17 | \n", "
19314 rows × 16 columns
\n", "\n", " | ds | \n", "trend | \n", "yhat_lower | \n", "yhat_upper | \n", "trend_lower | \n", "trend_upper | \n", "additive_terms | \n", "additive_terms_lower | \n", "additive_terms_upper | \n", "extra_regressors_additive | \n", "... | \n", "weekly | \n", "weekly_lower | \n", "weekly_upper | \n", "yearly | \n", "yearly_lower | \n", "yearly_upper | \n", "multiplicative_terms | \n", "multiplicative_terms_lower | \n", "multiplicative_terms_upper | \n", "yhat | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | \n", "2021-12-31 | \n", "61.451789 | \n", "43.770868 | \n", "58.958793 | \n", "61.451789 | \n", "61.451789 | \n", "-10.169568 | \n", "-10.169568 | \n", "-10.169568 | \n", "-2.404798 | \n", "... | \n", "0.024395 | \n", "0.024395 | \n", "0.024395 | \n", "-7.789165 | \n", "-7.789165 | \n", "-7.789165 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "51.282221 | \n", "
1 | \n", "2022-01-01 | \n", "61.451564 | \n", "44.888911 | \n", "59.704787 | \n", "61.451564 | \n", "61.451564 | \n", "-9.472289 | \n", "-9.472289 | \n", "-9.472289 | \n", "-1.623890 | \n", "... | \n", "-0.016400 | \n", "-0.016400 | \n", "-0.016400 | \n", "-7.831998 | \n", "-7.831998 | \n", "-7.831998 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "51.979276 | \n", "
2 | \n", "2022-01-02 | \n", "61.451340 | \n", "41.934794 | \n", "56.965415 | \n", "61.451340 | \n", "61.451340 | \n", "-11.882048 | \n", "-11.882048 | \n", "-11.882048 | \n", "-4.101609 | \n", "... | \n", "0.092322 | \n", "0.092322 | \n", "0.092322 | \n", "-7.872761 | \n", "-7.872761 | \n", "-7.872761 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "49.569291 | \n", "
3 | \n", "2022-01-03 | \n", "61.451115 | \n", "30.913910 | \n", "46.170157 | \n", "61.451115 | \n", "61.451115 | \n", "-22.892606 | \n", "-22.892606 | \n", "-22.892606 | \n", "-15.309001 | \n", "... | \n", "0.327882 | \n", "0.327882 | \n", "0.327882 | \n", "-7.911487 | \n", "-7.911487 | \n", "-7.911487 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "38.558509 | \n", "
4 | \n", "2022-01-04 | \n", "61.450890 | \n", "28.548837 | \n", "43.612621 | \n", "61.450890 | \n", "61.450890 | \n", "-25.299019 | \n", "-25.299019 | \n", "-25.299019 | \n", "-17.258012 | \n", "... | \n", "-0.092811 | \n", "-0.092811 | \n", "-0.092811 | \n", "-7.948196 | \n", "-7.948196 | \n", "-7.948196 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "36.151871 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "... | \n", "
317 | \n", "2022-11-13 | \n", "61.380525 | \n", "48.858908 | \n", "63.854308 | \n", "61.356639 | \n", "61.399554 | \n", "-5.038643 | \n", "-5.038643 | \n", "-5.038643 | \n", "-2.145620 | \n", "... | \n", "0.092322 | \n", "0.092322 | \n", "0.092322 | \n", "-2.985346 | \n", "-2.985346 | \n", "-2.985346 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "56.341881 | \n", "
318 | \n", "2022-11-14 | \n", "61.380300 | \n", "42.163668 | \n", "57.870300 | \n", "61.356268 | \n", "61.399399 | \n", "-11.143413 | \n", "-11.143413 | \n", "-11.143413 | \n", "-8.348148 | \n", "... | \n", "0.327882 | \n", "0.327882 | \n", "0.327882 | \n", "-3.123147 | \n", "-3.123147 | \n", "-3.123147 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "50.236887 | \n", "
319 | \n", "2022-11-15 | \n", "61.380075 | \n", "41.399907 | \n", "56.863337 | \n", "61.355897 | \n", "61.399236 | \n", "-12.079177 | \n", "-12.079177 | \n", "-12.079177 | \n", "-8.726067 | \n", "... | \n", "-0.092811 | \n", "-0.092811 | \n", "-0.092811 | \n", "-3.260299 | \n", "-3.260299 | \n", "-3.260299 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "49.300898 | \n", "
320 | \n", "2022-11-16 | \n", "61.379851 | \n", "43.093405 | \n", "58.532970 | \n", "61.355525 | \n", "61.399070 | \n", "-10.704830 | \n", "-10.704830 | \n", "-10.704830 | \n", "-7.045962 | \n", "... | \n", "-0.262147 | \n", "-0.262147 | \n", "-0.262147 | \n", "-3.396721 | \n", "-3.396721 | \n", "-3.396721 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "50.675021 | \n", "
321 | \n", "2022-11-17 | \n", "61.379626 | \n", "42.372965 | \n", "57.650695 | \n", "61.355154 | \n", "61.399004 | \n", "-11.496692 | \n", "-11.496692 | \n", "-11.496692 | \n", "-7.891114 | \n", "... | \n", "-0.073240 | \n", "-0.073240 | \n", "-0.073240 | \n", "-3.532338 | \n", "-3.532338 | \n", "-3.532338 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "49.882933 | \n", "
322 rows × 52 columns
\n", "\n", " | regressor | \n", "regressor_mode | \n", "center | \n", "coef_lower | \n", "coef | \n", "coef_upper | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | \n", "prcp_x | \n", "additive | \n", "0.118130 | \n", "-0.195667 | \n", "-0.195667 | \n", "-0.195667 | \n", "
1 | \n", "snow_x | \n", "additive | \n", "0.064540 | \n", "-0.011915 | \n", "-0.011915 | \n", "-0.011915 | \n", "
2 | \n", "snwd_x | \n", "additive | \n", "0.209635 | \n", "0.063296 | \n", "0.063296 | \n", "0.063296 | \n", "
3 | \n", "tmax_x | \n", "additive | \n", "61.758648 | \n", "0.012399 | \n", "0.012399 | \n", "0.012399 | \n", "
4 | \n", "tmin_x | \n", "additive | \n", "47.494024 | \n", "-0.083919 | \n", "-0.083919 | \n", "-0.083919 | \n", "
5 | \n", "prcp_y | \n", "additive | \n", "0.123378 | \n", "-0.321682 | \n", "-0.321682 | \n", "-0.321682 | \n", "
6 | \n", "snow_y | \n", "additive | \n", "0.071347 | \n", "-0.491140 | \n", "-0.491140 | \n", "-0.491140 | \n", "
7 | \n", "snwd_y | \n", "additive | \n", "0.217759 | \n", "-0.201450 | \n", "-0.201450 | \n", "-0.201450 | \n", "
8 | \n", "tmax_y | \n", "additive | \n", "62.609277 | \n", "0.281497 | \n", "0.281497 | \n", "0.281497 | \n", "
9 | \n", "tmin_y | \n", "additive | \n", "48.923130 | \n", "0.427295 | \n", "0.427295 | \n", "0.427295 | \n", "
\n", " | ds | \n", "trend | \n", "yhat_lower | \n", "yhat_upper | \n", "trend_lower | \n", "trend_upper | \n", "additive_terms | \n", "additive_terms_lower | \n", "additive_terms_upper | \n", "extra_regressors_additive | \n", "... | \n", "weekly | \n", "weekly_lower | \n", "weekly_upper | \n", "yearly | \n", "yearly_lower | \n", "yearly_upper | \n", "multiplicative_terms | \n", "multiplicative_terms_lower | \n", "multiplicative_terms_upper | \n", "yhat | \n", "
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | \n", "2022-11-17 | \n", "61.655414 | \n", "42.565354 | \n", "57.827923 | \n", "61.655414 | \n", "61.655414 | \n", "-11.530812 | \n", "-11.530812 | \n", "-11.530812 | \n", "-7.904525 | \n", "... | \n", "-0.065223 | \n", "-0.065223 | \n", "-0.065223 | \n", "-3.561064 | \n", "-3.561064 | \n", "-3.561064 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "0.0 | \n", "50.124602 | \n", "
1 rows × 52 columns
\n", "\n", " | ds | \n", "
---|---|
0 | \n", "1970-01-01 | \n", "
1 | \n", "1970-01-02 | \n", "
2 | \n", "1970-01-03 | \n", "
3 | \n", "1970-01-04 | \n", "
4 | \n", "1970-01-05 | \n", "
... | \n", "... | \n", "
19674 | \n", "2023-11-13 | \n", "
19675 | \n", "2023-11-14 | \n", "
19676 | \n", "2023-11-15 | \n", "
19677 | \n", "2023-11-16 | \n", "
19678 | \n", "2023-11-17 | \n", "
19679 rows × 1 columns
\n", "