basket.cpp

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/* -*- mode: c++; tab-width: 4; indent-tabs-mode: nil; c-basic-offset: 4 -*- */
 
/*
 Copyright (C) 2008 Roland Lichters
 Copyright (C) 2009, 2014 Jose Aparicio
 
 This file is part of QuantLib, a free-software/open-source library
 for financial quantitative analysts and developers - http://quantlib.org/
 
 QuantLib is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify it
 under the terms of the QuantLib license.  You should have received a
 copy of the license along with this program; if not, please email
 <quantlib-dev@lists.sf.net>. The license is also available online at
 <http://quantlib.org/license.shtml>.
 
 This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT
 ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS
 FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.  See the license for more details.
*/
 
#include <ql/experimental/credit/basket.hpp>
#include <ql/experimental/credit/defaultlossmodel.hpp>
#include <ql/experimental/credit/loss.hpp>
#include <ql/time/daycounters/actualactual.hpp>
#include <algorithm>
#include <numeric>
#include <utility>
 
using namespace std;
 
namespace QuantLib {
 
    Basket::Basket(const Date& refDate,
                   const vector<string>& names,
                   vector<Real> notionals,
                   ext::shared_ptr<Pool> pool,
                   Real attachment,
                   Real detachment,
                   ext::shared_ptr<Claim> claim)
    : notionals_(std::move(notionals)), pool_(std::move(pool)), claim_(std::move(claim)),
      attachmentRatio_(attachment), detachmentRatio_(detachment), basketNotional_(0.0),
      attachmentAmount_(0.0), detachmentAmount_(0.0), trancheNotional_(0.0), refDate_(refDate) {
        QL_REQUIRE(!notionals_.empty(), "notionals empty");
        QL_REQUIRE (attachmentRatio_ >= 0 &&
                    attachmentRatio_ <= detachmentRatio_ &&
                    detachmentRatio_ <= 1,
                    "invalid attachment/detachment ratio");
        QL_REQUIRE(pool_, "Empty pool pointer.");
        QL_REQUIRE(notionals_.size() == pool_->size(), 
                   "unmatched data entry sizes in basket");
 
        // registrations relevant to the loss status, not to the expected 
        // loss values; those are through models.
        registerWith(Settings::instance().evaluationDate());
        registerWith(claim_);
 
        computeBasket();
 
        // At this point Issuers in the pool might or might not have
        //   probability term structures for the defultKeys(eventType+
        //   currency+seniority) entering in this basket. This is not
        //   necessarily a problem.
        for (Real notional : notionals_) {
            basketNotional_ += notional;
            attachmentAmount_ += notional * attachmentRatio_;
            detachmentAmount_ += notional * detachmentRatio_;
        }
        trancheNotional_ = detachmentAmount_ - attachmentAmount_;
    }
 
    /*\todo Alternatively send a relinkable handle so it can be changed from 
    the outside. In that case reconsider the observability chain.
    */
    void Basket::setLossModel(
        const ext::shared_ptr<DefaultLossModel>& lossModel) {
 
        if (lossModel_ != nullptr)
            unregisterWith(lossModel_);
        lossModel_ = lossModel;
        if (lossModel_ != nullptr) {
            //recovery quotes, defaults(once Issuer is observable)etc might 
            //  trigger us:
            registerWith(lossModel_);
        }
        LazyObject::update(); //<- just set calc=false
    }
 
    void Basket::performCalculations() const {
        // Calculations for status
        computeBasket();// or we might be called from an statistic member 
                        // without being initialized yet (first called)
        QL_REQUIRE(lossModel_, "Basket has no default loss model assigned.");
 
        /* The model must notify us if the another basket calls it for 
        reasignment. The basket works as an argument to the deafult loss models 
        so, even if the models dont cache anything, they will be using the wrong
        default TS. \todo: This has a possible optimization: the basket 
        incorporates trancheability and many models do their compuations 
        independently of that (some do but do it inefficiently when asked for 
        two tranches on the same basket; e,g, recursive model) so it might be 
        more efficient sending the pool only; however the modtionals and other 
        basket info are still used.*/
        lossModel_->setBasket(const_cast<Basket*>(this));
    }
 
    Real Basket::notional() const {
        return std::accumulate(notionals_.begin(), notionals_.end(), Real(0.0));
    }
 
    vector<Real> Basket::probabilities(const Date& d) const {
        vector<Real> prob(size());
        vector<DefaultProbKey> defKeys = defaultKeys();
        for (Size j = 0; j < size(); j++)
            prob[j] = pool_->get(pool_->names()[j]).defaultProbability(
                defKeys[j])->defaultProbability(d);
        return prob;
    }
 
    Real Basket::cumulatedLoss(const Date& endDate) const {
        QL_REQUIRE(endDate >= refDate_, 
            "Target date lies before basket inception");
        Real loss = 0.0;
        for (Size i = 0; i < size(); i++) {
            ext::shared_ptr<DefaultEvent> credEvent =
                pool_->get(pool_->names()[i]).defaultedBetween(refDate_,
                    endDate, pool_->defaultKeys()[i]);
            if (credEvent != nullptr) {
                /* \todo If the event has not settled one would need to 
                introduce some model recovery rate (independently of a loss 
                model) This remains to be done.
                */  
                if(credEvent->hasSettled())
                    loss += claim_->amount(credEvent->date(),
                            // notionals_[i],
                            exposure(pool_->names()[i], credEvent->date()),
                            credEvent->settlement().recoveryRate(
                                pool_->defaultKeys()[i].seniority()));
            }
        }
        return loss;
    }
 
    Real Basket::settledLoss(const Date& endDate) const {
        QL_REQUIRE(endDate >= refDate_, 
            "Target date lies before basket inception");
        
        Real loss = 0.0;
        for (Size i = 0; i < size(); i++) {
            ext::shared_ptr<DefaultEvent> credEvent =
                pool_->get(pool_->names()[i]).defaultedBetween(refDate_,
                    endDate, pool_->defaultKeys()[i]);
            if (credEvent != nullptr) {
                if(credEvent->hasSettled()) {
                    loss += claim_->amount(credEvent->date(),
                            //notionals_[i],
                            exposure(pool_->names()[i], credEvent->date()),
                            //NOtice I am requesting an exposure in the past...
                            /* also the seniority does not belong to the 
                            counterparty anymore but to the position.....*/
                            credEvent->settlement().recoveryRate(
                                pool_->defaultKeys()[i].seniority()));
                }
            }
        }
        return loss;
    }
 
    Real Basket::remainingNotional() const {
        return evalDateRemainingNot_;
    }
 
    std::vector<Size> Basket::liveList(const Date& endDate) const {
        std::vector<Size> calcBufferLiveList;
        for (Size i = 0; i < size(); i++)
            if (!pool_->get(pool_->names()[i]).defaultedBetween(
                    refDate_,
                    endDate,
                    pool_->defaultKeys()[i]))
                calcBufferLiveList.push_back(i);
 
        return calcBufferLiveList;
    }
 
    Real Basket::remainingNotional(const Date& endDate) const {
        Real notional = 0;
        vector<DefaultProbKey> defKeys = defaultKeys();
        for (Size i = 0; i < size(); i++) {
            if (!pool_->get(pool_->names()[i]).defaultedBetween(refDate_,
                                                        endDate,
                                                        defKeys[i]))
                notional += notionals_[i];
        }
        return notional;
    }
 
    vector<Real> Basket::remainingNotionals(const Date& endDate) const 
    {
        QL_REQUIRE(endDate >= refDate_, 
            "Target date lies before basket inception");
 
        std::vector<Real> calcBufferNotionals;
        const std::vector<Size>& alive = liveList(endDate);
        calcBufferNotionals.reserve(alive.size());
        for(Size i=0; i<alive.size(); i++)
            calcBufferNotionals.push_back(
                exposure(pool_->names()[i], endDate)
                );// some better way to trim it? 
        return calcBufferNotionals;
    }
 
    std::vector<Probability> Basket::remainingProbabilities(const Date& d) const 
    {
        QL_REQUIRE(d >= refDate_, "Target date lies before basket inception");
        vector<Real> prob;
        const std::vector<Size>& alive = liveList();
 
        prob.reserve(alive.size());
        for(Size i=0; i<alive.size(); i++)
            prob.push_back(pool_->get(pool_->names()[i]).defaultProbability(
                pool_->defaultKeys()[i])->defaultProbability(d, true));
        return prob;
    }
 
    /* It is supossed to return the addition of ALL notionals from the 
    requested ctpty......*/
    Real Basket::exposure(const std::string& name, const Date& d) const {
        //'this->names_' contains duplicates, contrary to 'pool->names'
        auto match = std::find(pool_->names().begin(), pool_->names().end(), name);
        QL_REQUIRE(match != pool_->names().end(), "Name not in basket.");
        Real totalNotional = 0.;
        do{
            totalNotional += 
             // NOT IMPLEMENTED YET:
    //positions_[std::distance(names_.begin(), match)]->expectedExposure(d);
                notionals_[std::distance(pool_->names().begin(), match)];
            ++match;
            match = std::find(match, pool_->names().end(), name);
        }while(match != pool_->names().end());
 
        return totalNotional;
        //Size position = std::distance(poolNames.begin(), 
        //    std::find(poolNames.begin(), poolNames.end(), name));
        //QL_REQUIRE(position < pool_->size(), "Name not in pool list");
 
        //return positions_[position]->expectedExposure(d);
    }
 
    std::vector<std::string> Basket::remainingNames(const Date& endDate) const 
    {
        // maybe return zero directly instead?:
        QL_REQUIRE(endDate >= refDate_, 
            "Target date lies before basket inception");
 
        const std::vector<Size>& alive = liveList(endDate);
        std::vector<std::string> calcBufferNames;
        calcBufferNames.reserve(alive.size());
        for (unsigned long i : alive)
            calcBufferNames.push_back(pool_->names()[i]);
        return calcBufferNames;
    }
 
    vector<DefaultProbKey> Basket::remainingDefaultKeys(const Date& endDate) const 
    {
        QL_REQUIRE(endDate >= refDate_,
            "Target date lies before basket inception");
 
        const std::vector<Size>& alive = liveList(endDate);
        vector<DefaultProbKey> defKeys;
        defKeys.reserve(alive.size());
        for (unsigned long i : alive)
            defKeys.push_back(pool_->defaultKeys()[i]);
        return defKeys;
    }
 
    Size Basket::remainingSize() const {
        return evalDateLiveList_.size();
    }
 
    Size Basket::remainingSize(const Date& d) const {
        return remainingDefaultKeys(d).size();
    }
 
    /* computed on the inception values, notice the positions might have 
    amortized or changed in value and the total outstanding notional might 
    differ from the inception one.*/
    Real Basket::remainingDetachmentAmount(const Date& endDate) const {
        QL_REQUIRE(endDate >= refDate_, 
            "Target date lies before basket inception");
        return detachmentAmount_;
    }
 
    Real Basket::remainingAttachmentAmount(const Date& endDate) const {
        // maybe return zero directly instead?:
        QL_REQUIRE(endDate >= refDate_, 
            "Target date lies before basket inception");
        Real loss = settledLoss(endDate);
        return std::min(detachmentAmount_, attachmentAmount_ + 
            std::max(0.0, loss - attachmentAmount_));
    }
 
    Probability Basket::probOverLoss(const Date& d, Real lossFraction) const {
        // convert initial basket fraction to remaining basket fraction
        calculate();
        // if eaten up all the tranche the prob of losing any amount is 1 
        //  (we have already lost it)
        if(evalDateRemainingNot_ == 0.) return 1.;
 
        // Turn to live (remaining) tranche units to feed into the model request
        Real xPtfl = attachmentAmount_ + 
            (detachmentAmount_-attachmentAmount_)*lossFraction;
        Real xPrim = (xPtfl- evalDateAttachAmount_)/
            (detachmentAmount_-evalDateAttachAmount_);
        // in live tranche fractional units
        // if the level falls within realized losses the prob is 1.
        if(xPtfl < 0.) return 1.;
 
        return lossModel_->probOverLoss(d, xPrim);
    }
 
    Real Basket::percentile(const Date& d, Probability prob) const {
        calculate();
        return lossModel_->percentile(d, prob);
    }
 
    Real Basket::expectedTrancheLoss(const Date& d) const {
        calculate();
        return cumulatedLoss() + lossModel_->expectedTrancheLoss(d);
    }
 
    std::vector<Real> Basket::splitVaRLevel(const Date& date, Real loss) const {
        calculate();
        return lossModel_->splitVaRLevel(date, loss);
    }
 
    Real Basket::expectedShortfall(const Date& d, Probability prob) const {
        calculate();
        return lossModel_->expectedShortfall(d, prob);
    }
 
    std::map<Real, Probability> Basket::lossDistribution(const Date& d) const {
        calculate();
        return lossModel_->lossDistribution(d);
    }
 
    std::vector<Probability> 
        Basket::probsBeingNthEvent(Size n, const Date& d) const {
 
        Size alreadyDefaulted = pool_->size() - remainingNames().size();
        if(alreadyDefaulted >=n) 
            return std::vector<Probability>(remainingNames().size(), 0.);
 
        calculate();
        return lossModel_->probsBeingNthEvent(n-alreadyDefaulted, d);
    }
 
    Real Basket::defaultCorrelation(const Date& d, Size iName, Size jName) const{
        calculate();
        return lossModel_->defaultCorrelation(d, iName, jName);
 
    }
 
    /*! Returns the probaility of having a given or larger number of 
    defaults in the basket portfolio at a given time.
    */
    Probability Basket::probAtLeastNEvents(Size n, const Date& d) const{
        calculate();
        return lossModel_->probAtLeastNEvents(n, d);
 
    }
 
    Real Basket::recoveryRate(const Date& d, Size iName) const {
        calculate();
        return 
            lossModel_->expectedRecovery(d, iName, pool_->defaultKeys()[iName]);
    }
 
}