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<b>Message ID:</b> 13719 <br/>
<b>Date:</b> Wed Jan 26 02:39:32 GMT 2000 <br/>
<b>Author:</b> Ken Bachman <br/>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: Stats 101 (was Deepwater Gobs) <br/>
<br/><br/>
<div id="ygrps-yiv-1893447186">Reece, Tom - 25IDL G4 wrote:<br/>
<blockquote><span title="ireply"> &gt; <br/>
&gt; From: &quot;Reece, Tom - 25IDL G4&quot; &lt;<a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="mailto:g4mntofcr@...">g4mntofcr@...</a>&gt;<br/>
&gt; <br/>
&gt; OK I got one for Dean and John.<br/>
&gt; <br/>
&gt; We all know that mobs get a second resist check against pixie strike and<br/>
&gt; lullaby.  Lets say for the first check they get a 25% (1 out of 4) chance to<br/>
&gt; resist and a 33% (1 out of 3) chance for the second resist.  Whats the<br/>
&gt; overall chance that they make just one of the two resists?<br/>
&gt; <br/>
<br/>
 </span></blockquote>Since a failure on the first resist is a total failure, distinguishing between <br/>
failure/success and failure/failure isn&#39;t important.  (In fact, I doubt that <br/>
they even make the second resist check if the first one fails - what would <br/>
be the point?)  The numbers are:<br/>
<br/>
Failure on the first:    1/4<br/>
Success/Failure:  3/4 times 1/3, or 1/4<br/>
Success/Success:  3/4 times 2/3, or 1/2<br/>
<br/>
Failure on the first breaks down as:<br/>
Failure/Success:  1/4 times 2/3, or 1/6<br/>
Failure/Failure:  1/4 times 1/3, or 1/12<br/>
These add up to 3/12, or the 1/4 shown above.<br/>
<br/>
As required, these add up to 1.<br/>
<br/>
50/50 shot of failure.  Yucch.<br/>
<br/>
Kenross Cantoforjado, 40 songs, Innoruuk</div>